Search results for: probabilistic%20constraints

Authors: Mehran Naghizaderokni, Asscar Janalizadechobbasty

Abstract:

There are more probabilistic and deterministic liquefaction evaluation procedures in order to judge whether liquefaction will occur or not. A review of this approach reveals that there is a need for a comprehensive procedure that accounts for different sources of uncertainty in liquefaction evaluation. In fact, for the same set of input parameters, different methods provide different factors of safety and/or probabilities of liquefaction. To account for the different uncertainties, including both the model and measurement uncertainties, reliability analysis is necessary. This paper has obtained information from Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and some empirical approaches such as: Seed et al, Highway bridge of Japan approach to soil liquefaction, The Overseas Coastal Area Development Institute of Japan (OCDI) and reliability method to studying potential of liquefaction in soil of Babol city in the north of Iran are compared. Evaluation potential of liquefaction in soil of Babol city is an important issue since the soil of some area contains sand, seismic area, increasing level of underground waters and consequently saturation of soil; therefore, one of the most important goals of this paper is to gain suitable recognition of liquefaction potential and find the most appropriate procedure of evaluation liquefaction potential to decrease related damages.

Keywords: reliability analysis, liquefaction, Babol, civil, construction and geological engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: Azam Abkhiz, Abolghasem Nasir

Abstract:

To achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the market, it is necessary to provide and improve customer satisfaction and Loyalty. To reach this objective, companies need to identify and analyze their customers. Thus, it is critical to measure the level of customer satisfaction and Loyalty very carefully. This study attempts to build a conceptual model to provide clear insights of customer loyalty. Using Bayesian networks (BNs), a model is proposed to evaluate customer loyalty and its consequences, such as repurchase and positive word-of-mouth. BN is a probabilistic approach that predicts the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The most relevant determinants of customer loyalty are identified by the literature review. Perceived value, service quality, trust, corporate image, satisfaction, and switching costs are the most important variables that explain customer loyalty. The data are collected by use of a questionnaire-based survey from 1430 customers of a home appliances manufacturer in Iran. Four scenarios and sensitivity analyses are performed to run and analyze the impact of different determinants on customer loyalty. The proposed model allows businesses to not only set their targets but proactively manage their customer behaviors as well.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, Bayesian networks, home appliances industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Benmansour Nassima, Benmansour Souheyla

Abstract:

The appropriate integration of reward processing and decision making provided by the environment is vital for behavioural success and individuals’ well being in everyday life. Functional neurological investigation has already provided an inclusive image on affective and emotional (motivational) processing in the healthy human brain and has recently focused its interest also on the assessment of brain function in anxious and depressed individuals. This article offers an overview on the theoretical approaches that relate emotion and decision-making, and spotlights investigation with anxious or depressed individuals to reveal how emotions can interfere with decision-making. This research aims at incorporating the emotional structure based on response and stimulation with a Bayesian approach to decision-making in terms of probability and value processing. It seeks to show how studies of individuals with emotional dysfunctions bear out that alterations of decision-making can be considered in terms of altered probability and value subtraction. The utmost objective is to critically determine if the probabilistic representation of belief affords could be a critical approach to scrutinize alterations in probability and value representation in subjective with anxiety and depression, and draw round the general implications of this approach.

Keywords: decision-making, motivation, alteration, reward processing, response selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

Magnesium alloy has been widely used in structure such as an automobile. It is necessary to consider probabilistic characteristics of a structural material because a fatigue behavior of a structure has a randomness and uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to find the characteristics of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the grown crack size at a specified fatigue crack propagation life and to investigate a statistical crack propagation in magnesium alloys. The statistical fatigue data of the grown crack size are obtained through the fatigue crack propagation (FCP) tests under different maximum fatigue load conditions conducted on the replicated specimens of magnesium alloys. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used to find the CDF of grown crack size. The CDF of grown crack size in case of larger maximum fatigue load has longer tail in below 10 percent and above 90 percent. The fatigue failure occurs easily as the tail of CDF of grown crack size becomes long. The fatigue behavior under the larger maximum fatigue load condition shows more rapid propagation and failure mode.

Keywords: cumulative distribution function, fatigue crack propagation, grown crack size, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Constanza A. Barriga, Rafael Bernardi, Amokrane Berdja, Christian D. Guzman

Abstract:

Most image restoration methods in astronomy rely upon probabilistic tools that infer the best solution for a deconvolution problem. They achieve good performances when the point spread function (PSF) is spatially invariable in the image plane. However, this latter condition is not always satisfied with real optical systems. PSF angular variations cannot be evaluated directly from the observations, neither be corrected at a pixel resolution. We have developed a method for the restoration of images affected by static and anisotropic aberrations using deep neural networks that can be directly applied to sky images. The network is trained using simulated sky images corresponding to the T-80 telescope optical system, an 80 cm survey imager at Cerro Tololo (Chile), which are synthesized using a Zernike polynomial representation of the optical system. Once trained, the network can be used directly on sky images, outputting a corrected version of the image, which has a constant and known PSF across its field-of-view. The method was tested with the T-80 telescope, achieving better results than with PSF deconvolution techniques. We present the method and results on this telescope.

Keywords: aberrations, deep neural networks, image restoration, variable point spread function, wide field images

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Congping Lin

Abstract:

Intracellular transport in fungi has a number of important roles in, e.g., filamentous fungal growth and cellular metabolism. Two basic mechanisms for intracellular transport are motor-driven trafficking along microtubules (MTs) and diffusion. Mathematical modelling has been actively developed to understand such intracellular transport and provide unique insight into cellular complexity. Based on live-cell imaging data in Ustilago hyphal cells, probabilistic models have been developed to study mechanism underlying spatial organization of molecular motors and organelles. In particular, anther mechanism - stochastic motility of dynein motors along MTs has been found to contribute to half of its accumulation at hyphal tip in order to support early endosome (EE) recycling. The EE trafficking not only facilitates the directed motion of peroxisomes but also enhances their diffusive motion. Considering the importance of spatial organization of early endosomes in supporting peroxisome movement, computational and experimental approaches have been combined to a whole-cell level. Results from this interdisciplinary study promise insights into requirements for other membrane trafficking systems (e.g., in neurons), but also may inform future 'synthetic biology' studies.

Keywords: intracellular transport, stochastic process, molecular motors, spatial organization

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Naser Safdarian, Nader Jafarnia Dabanloo

Abstract:

In this paper we used four features i.e. Q-wave integral, QRS complex integral, T-wave integral and total integral as extracted feature from normal and patient ECG signals to detection and localization of myocardial infarction (MI) in left ventricle of heart. In our research we focused on detection and localization of MI in standard ECG. We use the Q-wave integral and T-wave integral because this feature is important impression in detection of MI. We used some pattern recognition method such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to detect and localize the MI. Because these methods have good accuracy for classification of normal and abnormal signals. We used one type of Radial Basis Function (RBF) that called Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) because of its nonlinearity property, and used other classifier such as k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Naive Bayes Classification. We used PhysioNet database as our training and test data. We reached over 80% for accuracy in test data for localization and over 95% for detection of MI. Main advantages of our method are simplicity and its good accuracy. Also we can improve accuracy of classification by adding more features in this method. A simple method based on using only four features which extracted from standard ECG is presented which has good accuracy in MI localization.

Keywords: ECG signal processing, myocardial infarction, features extraction, pattern recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Zuoji Huang, Haiming Qian, Chunlin Wang, Jinyan Sun, Nan Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, the strategy to extract double road edge lines from acquired road stripe image was explored. The workflow is as follows: the road stripes are acquired by probabilistic boosting tree algorithm and morphological algorithm immediately, and road centerlines are detected by thinning algorithm, so the initial road edge lines can be acquired along the road centerlines. Then we refine the results with big variation of local curvature of centerlines. Specifically, the energy function of edge line is constructed by gradient feature and spectral information, and Dijkstra algorithm is used to optimize the initial road edge lines. The Snake model is constructed to solve the fracture problem of intersection, and the discrete dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve the model. After that, we could get the final road network. Experiment results show that the strategy proposed in this paper can be used to extract the continuous and smooth road edge lines from high-resolution remote sensing images with an accuracy of 88% in our study area.

Keywords: road edge lines extraction, energy function, intersection fracture, Snake model

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: S. Benchelha, H. C. Aoudjehane, M. Hakdaoui, R. El Hamdouni, H. Mansouri, T. Benchelha, M. Layelmam, M. Alaoui

Abstract:

The logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MarSpline) are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility map in Oudka, Morocco, using geographical information system. From spatial database containing data such as landslide mapping, topography, soil, hydrology and lithology, the eight factors related to landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to road, distance to faults, lithology map and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by the two mentioned methods. Before the calculation, this database was divided into two parts, the first for the formation of the model and the second for the validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates to evaluate the quality of these probabilistic models. The result of this verification was that the MarSpline model is the best model with a success rate (AUC = 0.963) and a prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) higher than the LR model (success rate AUC = 0.918, rate prediction AUC = 0.901).

Keywords: landslide susceptibility mapping, regression logistic, multivariate adaptive regression spline, Oudka, Taounate

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

Abstract:

Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

Abstract:

Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Bayesian network, classification, expert knowledge, structure learning, surface water analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

Abstract:

The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Rafi Ullah, Shah Muhammad Emaduddin, Taha Jilani

Abstract:

Vehicle Adhoc Networks (VANET) belongs to a special class of Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET) with high mobility. Network is created by road side vehicles equipped with communication devices like GPS and Wifi etc. Since the environment is highly dynamic due to difference in speed and high mobility of vehicles and weak stability of the network connection, it is a challenging task to design an efficient routing protocol for such an unstable environment. Our proposed algorithm uses heuristic for the calculation of optimal path for routing the packet efficiently in collaboration with several other parameters like geographical location, speed, priority, the distance among the vehicles, communication range, and networks congestion. We have incorporated probabilistic, heuristic and machine learning based approach inconsistency with the relay function of the memory buffer to keep the packet moving towards the destination. These parameters when used in collaboration provide us a very strong and admissible heuristics. We have mathematically proved that the proposed technique is efficient for the routing of packets, especially in a medical emergency situation. These networks can be used for medical emergency, security, entertainment and routing purposes.

Keywords: heuristics routing, intelligent routing, VANET, route optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Orhun Aydin, Mark V. Janikas, Rodrigo Alves, Renato Assuncao

Abstract:

In this paper, a tree-based perturbation methodology for regionalization inference is presented. Regionalization is a constrained optimization problem that aims to create groups with similar attributes while satisfying spatial contiguity constraints. Similar to any constrained optimization problem, the spatial constraint may hinder convergence to some global minima, resulting in spatially contiguous members of a group with dissimilar attributes. This paper presents a general methodology for rigorously perturbing spatial constraints through the use of random spanning trees. The general framework presented can be used to quantify the effect of the spatial constraints in the overall regionalization result. We compare several types of stochastic spanning trees used in inference problems such as fuzzy regionalization and determining the number of regions. Performance of stochastic spanning trees is juxtaposed against the traditional permutation-based hypothesis testing frequently used in spatial statistics. Inference results for fuzzy regionalization and determining the number of regions is presented on the Local Area Personal Incomes for Texas Counties provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Keywords: regionalization, constrained clustering, probabilistic inference, fuzzy clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

Abstract:

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

Abstract:

This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Komeil Valipourian

Abstract:

Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method (FDM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

Abstract:

Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Agatha Padma Laksitaningtyas, Sumiyati Gunawan

Abstract:

Mataram Irrigation Canal has 31,2 km length, is the main irrigation canal in Special Region Province of Yogyakarta, connecting Progo River on the west side and Opak River on the east side. It has an important role as the main water carrier distribution for various purposes such as agriculture, fishery, and plantation which should be free from sediment material. Bed Load Sediment is the basic sediment that will make the sediment process on the irrigation canal. Sediment process is a simultaneous event that can make deposition sediment at the base of irrigation canal and can make the height of elevation water change, it will affect the availability of water to be used for irrigation functions. To predict the amount of drowning sediments in the irrigation canal using two methods: Meyer-Peter and Muller’s Method which is an energy approach method and Einstein Method which is a probabilistic approach. Speed measurement using floating method and using current meters. The channel geometry is measured directly in the field. The basic sediment of the channel is taken in the field by taking three samples from three different points. The result of the research shows that by using the formula Meyer -Peter Muller get the result of 60,75799 kg/s, whereas with Einsten’s Method get result of 13,06461 kg/s. the results may serve as a reference for dredging the sediments on the channel so as not to disrupt the flow of water in irrigation canal.

Keywords: bed load, sediment, irrigation, Mataram canal

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Carlos Gordon, Patricio Encalada, Henry Lema, Diego Leon, Dennis Chicaiza

Abstract:

The following work presents a proposal of autonomous navigation of mobile robots implemented in an omnidirectional robot Kuka Youbot. We have been able to perform the integration of robotic operative system (ROS) and machine learning algorithms. ROS mainly provides two distributions; ROS hydro and ROS Kinect. ROS hydro allows managing the nodes of odometry, kinematics, and path planning with statistical and probabilistic, global and local algorithms based on Adaptive Monte Carlo Localization (AMCL) and Dijkstra. Meanwhile, ROS Kinect is responsible for the detection block of dynamic objects which can be in the points of the planned trajectory obstructing the path of Kuka Youbot. The detection is managed by artificial vision module under a trained neural network based on the single shot multibox detector system (SSD), where the main dynamic objects for detection are human beings and domestic animals among other objects. When the objects are detected, the system modifies the trajectory or wait for the decision of the dynamic obstacle. Finally, the obstacles are skipped from the planned trajectory, and the Kuka Youbot can reach its goal thanks to the machine learning algorithms.

Keywords: autonomous navigation, machine learning, path planning, robotic operative system, open source computer vision library

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: B. Shukir, L. Szivos, D. Kis, P. Barzo

Abstract:

Glioblastoma is the most malignant brain tumor. In general, the survival rate varies between (14-18) months. Glioblastoma consists a solid and infiltrative part. The standard therapeutic management of glioblastoma is maximum safe resection followed by chemo-radiotherapy. It’s hypothesized that the pretumoral hyperintense region in fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images includes both vasogenic edema and infiltrated tumor cells. In our study, we aimed to define the sensitivity and specificity of hyperintense FLAIR images preoperatively to examine how well it can define the true extent of glioblastoma. (16) glioblastoma patients included in this study. Hyperintense FLAIR region were delineated preoperatively as tumor mask. The infiltrative part of glioblastoma considered the regions where the tumor recurred on the follow up MRI. The recurrence on the CE-T1 images was marked as the recurrence masks. According to (AAL3) and (JHU white matter labels) atlas, the brain divided into cortical and subcortical regions respectively. For calculating specificity and sensitivity, the FLAIR and the recurrence masks overlapped counting how many regions affected by both . The average sensitivity and specificity was 83% and 85% respectively. Individually, the sensitivity and specificity varied between (31-100)%, and (100-58)% respectively. These results suggest that despite FLAIR being as an effective radiologic imaging tool its prognostic value remains controversial and probabilistic tractography remain more reliable available method for identifying the true extent of glioblastoma.

Keywords: brain tumors, glioblastoma, MRI, FLAIR

Procedia PDF Downloads 12

Authors: Arpita Saha, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

Abstract:

Delay implicates the time loss of a traveler while crossing an intersection. Efficiency of traffic operation at signalized intersections is assessed in terms of delay caused to an individual vehicle. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method and Webster’s method are the most widely used in India for delay estimation purpose. However, in India, traffic is highly heterogeneous in nature with extremely poor lane discipline. Therefore, to explore best delay estimation technique for Indian condition, a comparison was made. In this study, seven signalized intersections from three different cities where chosen. Data was collected for both during morning and evening peak hours. Only under saturated cycles were considered for this study. Delay was estimated based on the field data. With the help of Simpson’s 1/3 rd rule, delay of under saturated cycles was estimated by measuring the area under the curve of queue length and cycle time. Moreover, the field observed delay was compared with the delay estimated using HCM, Webster, Probabilistic, Taylor’s expansion and Regression methods. The drawbacks of the existing delay estimation methods to be use in Indian heterogeneous traffic conditions were figured out, and best method was proposed. It was observed that direct estimation of delay using field measured data is more accurate than existing conventional and modified methods.

Keywords: delay estimation technique, field delay, heterogeneous traffic, signalised intersection

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Georgios Charizanos, Haydar Demirhan, Duygu Icen

Abstract:

Two of the most impactful issues in classical logistic regression are class imbalance and complete separation. These can result in model predictions heavily leaning towards the imbalanced class on the binary response variable or over-fitting issues. Fuzzy methodology offers key solutions for handling these problems. However, most studies propose the transformation of the binary responses into a continuous format limited within [0,1]. This is called the possibilistic approach within fuzzy logistic regression. Following this approach is more aligned with straightforward regression since a logit-link function is not utilized, and fuzzy probabilities are not generated. In contrast, we propose a method of fuzzifying binary response variables that allows for the use of the logit-link function; hence, a probabilistic fuzzy logistic regression model with the Monte Carlo method. The fuzzy probabilities are then classified by selecting a fuzzy threshold. Different combinations of fuzzy and crisp input, output, and coefficients are explored, aiming to understand which of these perform better under different conditions of imbalance and separation. We conduct numerical experiments using both synthetic and real datasets to demonstrate the performance of the fuzzy logistic regression framework against seven crisp machine learning methods. The proposed framework shows better performance irrespective of the degree of imbalance and presence of separation in the data, while the considered machine learning methods are significantly impacted.

Keywords: fuzzy logistic regression, fuzzy, logistic, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Sekkal Nawel

Abstract:

The Web of Things (WoT), integration of smart technologies from the Internet or network to Web architecture or application, is becoming more complex, larger, and dynamic. The WoT is associated with various elements such as sensors, devices, networks, protocols, data, functionalities, and architectures to perform services for stakeholders. These services operate in the context of the interaction of stakeholders and the WoT elements. Such context is becoming a key information source from which data are of various nature and uncertain, thus leading to complex situations. In this paper, we take interest in the development of intelligent Web services. The key ingredients of this “intelligent” notion are the context diversity, the necessity of a semantic representation to manage complex situations and the capacity to reason with uncertain data. In this perspective, we introduce a multi-layered architecture based on a generic intelligent Web service model dealing with various contexts, which proactively predict future situations and reactively respond to real-time situations in order to support decision-making. For semantic context data representation, we use PR-OWL, which is a probabilistic ontology based on Multi-Entity Bayesian Networks (MEBN). PR-OWL is flexible enough to represent complex, dynamic, and uncertain contexts, the key requirements of the development for the intelligent Web services. A case study was carried out using the proposed architecture for intelligent plant watering to show the role of proactive and reactive contextual reasoning in terms of WoT.

Keywords: smart web service, the web of things, context reasoning, proactive, reactive, multi-entity bayesian networks, PR-OWL

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Josif Figueroa, Kush Bubbar, Greg Young-Morris

Abstract:

The reliability evaluation of composite generation and bulk transmission systems is crucial for ensuring a reliable supply of electrical energy to significant system load points. However, evaluating adequacy indices using probabilistic methods like sequential Monte Carlo Simulation can be computationally expensive. Despite this, it is necessary when time-varying and interdependent resources, such as renewables and energy storage systems, are involved. Recent advances in solving power network optimization problems and parallel computing have improved runtime performance while maintaining solution accuracy. This work introduces CompositeSystems, an open-source Composite System Reliability Evaluation tool developed in Julia™, to address the current deficiencies of commercial and non-commercial tools. This work introduces its design, validation, and effectiveness, which includes analyzing two different formulations of the Optimal Power Flow problem. The simulations demonstrate excellent agreement with existing published studies while improving replicability and reproducibility. Overall, the proposed tool can provide valuable insights into the performance of transmission systems, making it an important addition to the existing toolbox for power system planning.

Keywords: open-source software, composite system reliability, optimization methods, Monte Carlo methods, optimal power flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

Abstract:

The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Angela U. Makolo, Temitayo A. Olagunju

Abstract:

The knowledge of signaling pathways is central to understanding the biological mechanisms of organisms since it has been identified that in eukaryotic organisms, the number of signaling pathways determines the number of ways the organism will react to external stimuli. Signaling pathways are studied using protein interaction networks constructed from protein-protein interaction data obtained using high throughput experimental procedures. However, these high throughput methods are known to produce very high rates of false positive and negative interactions. In order to construct a useful protein interaction network from this noisy data, computational methods are applied to validate the protein-protein interactions. In this study, a computational technique to identify signaling pathways from a protein interaction network constructed using validated protein-protein interaction data was designed. A weighted interaction graph of the Saccharomyces cerevisiae (Baker’s Yeast) organism using the proteins as the nodes and interactions between them as edges was constructed. The weights were obtained using Bayesian probabilistic network to estimate the posterior probability of interaction between two proteins given the gene expression measurement as biological evidence. Only interactions above a threshold were accepted for the network model. A pathway was formalized as a simple path in the interaction network from a starting protein and an ending protein of interest. We were able to identify some pathway segments, one of which is a segment of the pathway that signals the start of the process of meiosis in S. cerevisiae.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, protein interaction networks, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, signalling pathways

Procedia PDF Downloads 509

Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi

Abstract:

Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.

Keywords: reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 426