Search results for: decision tree

Authors: Haruka Ando

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Undernutrition of children is a critical issue, especially for people in the remote areas of the Republic of Djibouti, since household food insecurity, inadequate child caring and feeding, unhealthy environment and lack of clean water, as well as insufficient maternal and child healthcare, are underlying causes which affect. Nomadic pastoralists living in the Dikhil region (Dikhil) are socio-economically and geographically more vulnerable due to displacement, which in turn worsens the situation of child stunting. A high prevalence of inappropriate complementary feeding among pastoral mothers might be a significant barrier to child growth. This study aims to identify health promotion intervention strategies that would support an increase in optimal complementary feeding among pastoral mothers of children aged 6-23 months in Dikhil. There are four objectives; to explore and to understand the existing practice of complementary feeding among pastoral mothers in Dikhil; to identify the barriers in appropriate complementary feeding among the mothers; to critically explore and analyse the strategies for an increase in complementary feeding among the mothers; to make pragmatic recommendations to address the barriers in Djibouti. This is an in-depth study utilizing a conceptual framework, the behaviour change wheel, to analyse the determinants of complementary feeding and categorize health promotion interventions for increasing optimal complementary feeding among pastoral mothers living in Dikhil. The analytical tool was utilized to appraise the strategies to mitigate the selected barriers against optimal complementary feeding. The data sources were secondary literature from both published and unpublished sources. The literature was systematically collected. The findings of the determinants including the barriers of optimal complementary feeding were identified: heavy household workload, caring for multiple children under five, lack of education, cultural norms and traditional eating habits, lack of husbands' support, poverty and food insecurity, lack of clean water, low media coverage, insufficient health services on complementary feeding, fear, poor personal hygiene, and mothers' low decision-making ability and lack of motivation for food choice. To mitigate selected barriers of optimal complementary feeding, four intervention strategies based on interpersonal communication at the community-level were chosen: scaling up mothers' support groups, nutrition education, grandmother-inclusive approach, and training for complementary feeding counseling. The strategies were appraised through the criteria of effectiveness and feasibility. Scaling up mothers' support groups could be the best approach. Mid-term and long-term recommendations are suggested based on the situation analysis and appraisal of intervention strategies. Mid-term recommendations include complementary feeding promotion interventions are integrated into the healthcare service providing system in Dikhil, and donor agencies advocate and lobby the Ministry of Health Djibouti (MoHD) to increase budgetary allocation on complementary feeding promotion to implement interventions at a community level. Moreover, the recommendations include a community health management team in Dikhil training healthcare workers and mother support groups by using complementary feeding communication guidelines and monitors behaviour change of pastoral mothers and health outcome of their children. Long-term recommendations are the MoHD develops complementary feeding guidelines to cover sector-wide collaboration for multi-sectoral related barriers.

Keywords: Afar, child food, child nutrition, complementary feeding, complementary food, developing countries, Djibouti, East Africa, hard-to-reach areas, Horn of Africa, nomad, pastoral, rural area, Somali, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Richa Jaiswal, Vidisha Sharma, Amulya Rattan, Sushma Sagar, Subodh Kumar, Amit Gupta, Biplab Mishra, Maneesh Singhal

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Background: Adequate nutritional support and daily patient monitoring have an independent therapeutic role in the successful management of high output fistulae and early recovery after abdominal trauma. Case presentation: An 18-year-old girl was brought to AIIMS emergency with alleged history of fall of a heavy weight (electric motor) over abdomen. She was evaluated as per Advanced Trauma Life Support(ATLS) protocols and diagnosed to have significant abdominal trauma. After stabilization, she was referred to Trauma center. Abdomen was guarded and focused assessment with sonography for trauma(FAST) was found positive. Complete duodenojejunal(DJ) junction transection was found at laparotomy, and end-to-end repair was done. However, patient was re-explored in view of biliary peritonitis on post-operative day3, and anastomotic leak was found with sloughing of duodenal end. Resection of non-viable segments was done followed by side-to-side anastomosis. Unfortunately, the anastomosis leaked again, this time due to a post-anastomotic kink, diagnosed on dye study. Due to hostile abdomen, the patient was planned for supportive care, with plan of build-up and delayed definitive surgery. Percutaneous transheptic biliary drainage (PTBD) and STSG were required in the course as well. Nutrition: In intensive care unit (ICU), major goals of nutritional therapy were to improve wound healing, optimize nutrition, minimize enteral feed associated complications, reduce biliary fistula output, and prepare the patient for definitive surgeries. Feeding jejunostomy (FJ) was started from day 4 at the rate of 30ml/h along with total parenteral nutrition (TPN) and intra-venous (IV) micronutrients support. Due to high bile output, bile refeed started from day 13.After 23 days of ICU stay, patient was transferred to general ward with body mass index (BMI)<11kg/m2 and serum albumin –1.5gm%. Patient was received in the ward in catabolic phase with high risk of refeeding syndrome. Patient was kept on FJ bolus feed at the rate of 30–50 ml/h. After 3–4 days, while maintaining patient diet book log it was observed that patient use to refuse feed at night and started becoming less responsive with every passing day. After few minutes of conversation with the patient for a couple of days, she complained about enteral feed discharge in urine, mild pain and sign of dumping syndrome. Dye study was done, which ruled out any enterovesical fistula and conservative management were planned. At this time, decision was taken for continuous slow rate feeding through commercial feeding pump at the rate of 2–3ml/min. Drastic improvement was observed from the second day in gastro-intestinal symptoms and general condition of the patient. Nutritional composition of feed, TPN and diet ranged between 800 and 2100 kcal and 50–95 g protein. After STSG, TPN was stopped. Periodic diet counselling was given to improve oral intake. At the time of discharge, serum albumin level was 2.1g%, weight – 38.6, BMI – 15.19 kg/m2. Patient got discharge on an oral diet. Conclusion: Successful management of post-traumatic proximal high output fistulae is a challenging task, due to impaired nutrient absorption and enteral feed associated complications. Strategic- and goal-based nutrition support can salvage such critically ill patients, as demonstrated in the present case.

Keywords: nutritional monitoring, nutritional support, duodenal fistula, abdominal trauma

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Authors: A. Chandra, M. Arthur, L. Mize, A. Pomeroy-Stevens

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Background: Lower and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia face rapid urbanization resulting in both economic opportunities (the urban advantage) and emerging health challenges. Urban health risks are magnified in informal settlements and include infectious disease outbreaks, inadequate access to health services, and poor air quality. Over the coming years, urban spaces in Asia will face accelerating public health risks related to migration, climate change, and environmental health. These challenges are complex and require multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder solutions. The Building Health Cities (BHC) program is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to work with smart city initiatives in the Asia region. BHC approaches urban health challenges by addressing policies, planning, and services through a health equity lens, with a particular focus on informal settlements and migrant communities. The program works to develop data-driven decision-making, build inclusivity through stakeholder engagement, and facilitate the uptake of appropriate technology. Methodology: The BHC program has partnered with the smart city initiatives of Indore in India, Makassar in Indonesia, and Da Nang in Vietnam. Implementing partners support municipalities to improve health delivery and equity using two key approaches: political economy analysis and participatory systems mapping. Political economy analyses evaluate barriers to collective action, including corruption, security, accountability, and incentives. Systems mapping evaluates community health challenges using a cross-sectoral approach, analyzing the impact of economic, environmental, transport, security, health system, and built environment factors. The mapping exercise draws on the experience and expertise of a diverse cohort of stakeholders, including government officials, municipal service providers, and civil society organizations. Results: Systems mapping and political economy analyses identified significant barriers for health care in migrant populations. In Makassar, migrants are unable to obtain the necessary card that entitles them to subsidized health services. This finding is being used to engage with municipal governments to mitigate the barriers that limit migrant enrollment in the public social health insurance scheme. In Indore, the project identified poor drainage of storm and wastewater in migrant settlements as a cause of poor health. Unsafe and inadequate infrastructure placed residents of these settlements at risk for both waterborne diseases and injuries. The program also evaluated the capacity of urban primary health centers serving migrant communities, identifying challenges related to their hours of service and shortages of health workers. In Da Nang, the systems mapping process has only recently begun, with the formal partnership launched in December 2019. Conclusion: This paper explores lessons learned from BHC’s systems mapping, political economy analyses, and stakeholder engagement approaches. The paper shares progress related to the health of migrants in informal settlements. Case studies feature barriers identified and mitigating steps, including governance actions, taken by local stakeholders in partner cities. The paper includes an update on ongoing progress from Indore and Makassar and experience from the first six months of program implementation from Da Nang.

Keywords: informal settlements, migration, stakeholder engagement mapping, urban health

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Authors: Divya SY. Ang, Mark B. Tan, Nicholas EM. Yeo, Siti RB. Sudirman, Khong Yik Chew

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Introduction: The importance of the amalgamation of technological and engineering advances with surgical principles of reconstruction cannot be overemphasized. With earlier detection of cancer, consequences of high-speed living and neglect, like traumatic injuries and infection, resulting in increasingly younger patients with bone defects. This may result in malformations and suboptimal function that is more noticeable and palpable in the younger, active demographic. Our team proposes a technique that encapsulates a mesh of multidisciplinary effort, tissue engineering and reconstructive principles. Methods/Materials: Our patient was a young competitive footballer in his early 30s who was diagnosed with submandibular adenoid cystic carcinoma with bony involvement. He was thus counselled for a right hemi mandibulectomy, the floor of mouth resection, right selective neck dissection, tracheostomy, and free fibular flap reconstruction of his mandible and required post-operative radiotherapy. Being young and in his prime sportsman years, he was unable to accept the morbidities associated with using his fibula to reconstruct his mandible despite it being the gold standard reconstructive option. The fibula is an ideal vascularized bone flap because it’s reliable and easily shaped with relatively minimal impact on functional outcomes. The fibula contributes to 30% of weightbearing and is the attachment for the lateral compartment muscles; it is stronger in footballers concerning lateral bending. When harvesting the fibula, the distal 6-8cm and up to 10% of the total length is preserved to maintain the ankle’s stability, thus, minimizing the impact on daily activities. There are studies that have noted gait variability post-operatively. Therefore, returning to a premorbid competitive level may be doubtful. To improve his functional outcomes, the decision was made to try and restore the fibula's form and function. Using the concept of Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM), our team comprising of Plastics, Otolaryngology, Orthopedics and Radiology, worked with Osteopore to design a 3D bioresorbable implant to regenerate the fibula defect (14.5cm). Bone marrow was harvested via reaming the contralateral hip prior to the wide resection. 30mls of his blood was obtained for extracting platelet rich plasma. These were packed into the Osteopore 3D-printed bone scaffold. This was then secured into the fibula defect with titanium plates and screws. The flexor hallucis longus and soleus were anchored along the construct and intraosseous membrane, done in a single setting. Results: He was reviewed closely as an outpatient over 10 months post operatively. He reported no discernable loss or difference in ankle function. He is satisfied and back in training and our team has video and photographs that substantiate his progress. Conclusion: FDM allows regeneration of long bone defects. However, we aimed to also restore his eversion and inversion that is imperative for footballers and hence reattached his previously dissected muscles along the length of the Osteopore implant. We believe that the reattachment of the muscle stabilizes not only the construct but allows optimum muscle tensioning when moving his ankle. This is a simple but effective technique in restoring complete function and form in a young patient whose minute muscle control is imperative to life.

Keywords: fused deposition modelling, functional reconstruction, lower limb bony defects, regenerative surgery, 3D printing, tissue engineering

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Authors: Enwin Anthony Dornubari, Visigah Kpobari Peter

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This research has developed a framework for the provision of sustainable and affordable housing to accommodate the low-income population of Greater Port Harcourt City. The objectives of this study among others, were to: examine UN-Habitat guidelines for acceptable and sustainable social housing provision, describe past efforts of the Rivers State Government and the Federal Government of Nigeria to provide housing for the poor in the Greater Port Harcourt City area; obtain a profile of prospective beneficiaries of the social housing proposed by this research as well as perceptions of their present living conditions, and living in the proposed self-sustaining social housing development, based on the initial simulation of the proposal; describe the nature of the framework, guideline and management of the proposed social housing development and explain the modalities for its implementation. The study utilized the mixed methods research approach, aimed at triangulating findings from the quantitative and qualitative paradigms. Opinions of professional of the built environment; Director, Development Control, Greater Port Harcourt City Development Authority; Directors of Ministry of Urban Development and Physical Planning; Housing and Property Development Authority and managers of selected Primary Mortgage Institutions were sought and analyzed. There were four target populations for the study, namely: members of occupational sub-groups for FGDs (Focused Group Discussions); development professionals for KIIs (Key Informant Interviews), household heads in selected communities of GPHC; and relevant public officials for IDI (Individual Depth Interview). Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were held with members of occupational sub-groups in each of the eight selected communities (Fisherfolk). The table shows that there were forty (40) members across all occupational sub-groups in each selected community, yielding a total of 320 in the eight (8) communities of Mgbundukwu (Mile 2 Diobu), Rumuodomaya, Abara (Etche), Igwuruta-Ali(Ikwerre), Wakama(Ogu-Bolo), Okujagu (Okrika), Akpajo (Eleme), and Okoloma (Oyigbo). For key informant interviews, two (2) members were judgmentally selected from each of the following development professions: urban and regional planners; architects; estate surveyors; land surveyors; quantity surveyors; and engineers. Concerning Population 3-Household Heads in Selected Communities of GPHC, a stratified multi-stage sampling procedure was adopted: Stage 1-Obtaining a 10% (a priori decision) sample of the component communities of GPHC in each stratum. The number in each stratum was rounded to one whole number to ensure representation of each stratum. Stage 2-Obtaining the number of households to be studied after applying the Taro Yamane formula, which aided in determining the appropriate number of cases to be studied at the precision level of 5%. Findings revealed, amongst others, that poor implementation of the UN-Habitat global shelter strategy, lack of stakeholder engagement, inappropriate locations, undue bureaucracy, lack of housing fairness and equity and high cost of land and building materials were the reasons for the failure of past efforts towards social housing provision in the Greater Port Harcourt City area. The study recommended a public-private partnership approach for the implementation and management of the framework. It also recommended a robust and sustained relationship between the management of the framework and the UN-Habitat office and other relevant government agencies responsible for housing development and all investment partners to create trust and efficiency.

Keywords: development, framework, low-income, sustainable, social housing

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Authors: Arthur Müller

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The study treats human dimensions of hunting by conducting statistical data analysis and providing decision-making support by examples of good prefectural governance and successful wildlife management, crucial to reduce pest species and sustain a stable hunter population in the future. Therefore it analyzes recent revision of wildlife legislation, reveals differences in administrative management structures, as well as socio-demographic characteristics of hunters in correlation with harvest trends of sika deer and wild boar in 47 prefectures in Japan between 1990 and 2013. In a wider context, Japan’s decentralized license hunting system might take the potential future role of a regional pioneer in East Asia. Consequently, the study contributes to similar issues in premature hunting systems of South Korea and Taiwan. Firstly, a quantitative comparison of seven mainland regions was conducted in Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, and Kyushu. Example prefectures were chosen by a cluster analysis. Shifts, differences, mean values and exponential growth rates between trap and gun hunters, age classes and common occupation types of hunters were statistically exterminated. While western Japan is characterized by high numbers of aged trap-hunters, occupied in agricultural- and forestry, the north-eastern prefectures show higher relative numbers of younger gun-hunters occupied in the field of production and process workers. With the exception of Okinawa island, most hunters in all prefectures are 60 years and older. Hence, unemployed and retired hunters are the fastest growing occupation group. Despite to drastic decrease in hunter population in absolute numbers, Hunting Recruitment Index indicated that all age classes tend to continue their hunting activity over a longer period, above ten years from 2004 to 2013 than during the former decade. Associated with a rapid population increase and distribution of sika deer and wild boar since 1978, a number of harvest from hunting and culling also have been rapidly increasing. Both wild boar hunting and culling is particularly high in western Japan, while sika hunting and culling proofs most successful in Hokkaido, central and western Japan. Since the Wildlife Protection and Proper Hunting Act in 1999 distinct prefectural hunting management authorities with different power, sets apply management approaches under the principles of subsidiarity and guidelines of the Ministry of Environment. Additionally, the Act on Special Measures for Prevention of Damage Related to Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Caused by Wildlife from 2008 supports local hunters in damage prevention measures through subsidies by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, which caused a rise of trap hunting, especially in western Japan. Secondly, prefectural staff in charge of wildlife management in seven regions was contacted. In summary, Hokkaido serves as a role model for dynamic, integrative, adaptive “feedback” management of Ezo sika deer, as well as a diverse network between management organizations, while Hyogo takes active measures to trap-hunt wild boars effectively. Both prefectures take the leadership in institutional performance and capacity. Northern prefectures in Tohoku, Chubu and Kanto region, firstly confronted with the emergence of wild boars and rising sika deer numbers, demand new institution and capacity building, as well as organizational learning.

Keywords: hunting and culling harvest trends, hunter socio-demographics, regional comparison, wildlife management approach

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Authors: Kelsi Hagerty, Ami Rosen, Aaliyah Heyward, Nadia Ali, Emily Brown, Erin Demo, Yue Guan, Modele Ogunniyi, Brianna McDaniels, Alanna Morris, Kunal Bhatt

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Hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis (hATTR) is a progressive, multi-systemic, and life-threatening disease caused by a disruption in the TTR protein that delivers thyroxine and retinol to the liver. This disruption causes the protein to misfold into amyloid fibrils, leading to the accumulation of the amyloid fibrils in the heart, nerves, and GI tract. Over 130 variants in the TTR gene are known to cause hATTR. The Val122Ile variant is the most common in the United States and is seen almost exclusively in people of African descent. TTR variants are inherited in an autosomal dominant fashion and have incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity. Individuals with hATTR may exhibit symptoms from as early as 30 years to as late as 80 years of age. hATTR is characterized by a wide range of clinical symptoms such as cardiomyopathy, neuropathy, carpal tunnel syndrome, and GI complications. Without treatment, hATTR leads to progressive disease and can ultimately lead to heart failure. hATTR disproportionately affects individuals of African descent; the estimated prevalence of hATTR among Black individuals in the US is 3.4%. Unfortunately, hATTR is often underdiagnosed and misdiagnosed because many symptoms of the disease overlap with other cardiac conditions. Due to the progressive nature of the disease, multi-systemic manifestations that can lead to a shortened lifespan, and the availability of free genetic testing and promising FDA-approved therapies that enhance treatability, early identification of individuals with a pathogenic hATTR variant is important, as this can significantly impact medical management for patients and their relatives. Furthermore, recent literature suggests that TTR genetic testing should be performed in all patients with suspicion of TTR-related cardiomyopathy, regardless of age, and that follow-up with genetic counseling services is recommended. Relatives of patients with hATTR benefit from genetic testing because testing can identify carriers early and allow relatives to receive regular screening and management. Despite the striking prevalence of hATTR among Black individuals, hATTR remains underdiagnosed in this patient population, and germline genetic testing for hATTR in Black individuals seems to be underrepresented, though the reasons for this have not yet been brought to light. Historically, Black patients experience a number of barriers to seeking healthcare that has been hypothesized to perpetuate the underdiagnosis of hATTR, such as lack of access and mistrust of healthcare professionals. Prior research has described a myriad of factors that shape an individual’s decision about whether to pursue presymptomatic genetic testing for a familial pathogenic variant, such as family closeness and communication, family dynamics, and a desire to inform other family members about potential health risks. This study explores these factors through 10 in-depth interviews with patients with hATTR about what factors may be contributing to the underdiagnosis of hATTR in the Black population. Participants were selected from the Emory University Amyloidosis clinic based on having a molecular diagnosis of hATTR. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim, then coded using MAXQDA software. Thematic analysis was completed to draw commonalities between participants. Upon preliminary analysis, several themes have emerged. Barriers identified include i) Misdiagnosis and a prolonged diagnostic odyssey, ii) Family communication and dynamics surrounding health issues, iii) Perceptions of healthcare and one’s own health risks, and iv) The need for more intimate provider-patient relationships and communication. Overall, this study gleaned valuable insight from members of the Black community about possible factors contributing to the underdiagnosis of hATTR, as well as potential solutions to go about resolving this issue.

Keywords: cardiac amyloidosis, heart failure, TTR, genetic testing

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Authors: Essam Gooda, Chadi Abdallah, Hamdi Seif, Safaa Baydoun, Rouya Hdeib, Hilal Obeid

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Floods are common natural disaster occurring in semi-arid regions in Lebanon. This results in damage to human life and deterioration of environment. Despite their destructive nature and their immense impact on the socio-economy of the region, flash floods have not received adequate attention from policy and decision makers. This is mainly because of poor understanding of the processes involved and measures needed to manage the problem. The current understanding of flash floods remains at the level of general concepts; most policy makers have yet to recognize that flash floods are distinctly different from normal riverine floods in term of causes, propagation, intensity, impacts, predictability, and management. Flash floods are generally not investigated as a separate class of event but are rather reported as part of the overall seasonal flood situation. As a result, Lebanon generally lacks policies, strategies, and plans relating specifically to flash floods. Main objective of this research is to improve flash flood prediction by providing new knowledge and better understanding of the hydrological processes governing flash floods in the East Catchments of El Assi River. This includes developing rainstorm time distribution curves that are unique for this type of study region; analyzing, investigating, and developing a relationship between arid watershed characteristics (including urbanization) and nearby villages flow flood frequency in Ras Baalbeck and Fekha. This paper discusses different levels of integration approach¬es between GIS and hydrological models (HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS) and presents a case study, in which all the tasks of creating model input, editing data, running the model, and displaying output results. The study area corresponds to the East Basin (Ras Baalbeck & Fakeha), comprising nearly 350 km2 and situated in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon. The case study presented in this paper has a database which is derived from Lebanese Army topographic maps for this region. Using ArcMap to digitizing the contour lines, streams & other features from the topographic maps. The digital elevation model grid (DEM) is derived for the study area. The next steps in this research are to incorporate rainfall time series data from Arseal, Fekha and Deir El Ahmar stations to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment and to combine ArcGIS/ArcMap, HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS models, in order to produce a spatial-temporal model for floodplain analysis at a regional scale. In this study, HEC-HMS and SCS methods were chosen to build the hydrologic model of the watershed. The model then calibrated using flood event that occurred between 7th & 9th of May 2014 which considered exceptionally extreme because of the length of time the flows lasted (15 hours) and the fact that it covered both the watershed of Aarsal and Ras Baalbeck. The strongest reported flood in recent times lasted for only 7 hours covering only one watershed. The calibrated hydrologic model is then used to build the hydraulic model & assessing of flood hazards maps for the region. HEC-RAS Model is used in this issue & field trips were done for the catchments in order to calibrated both Hydrologic and Hydraulic models. The presented models are a kind of flexible procedures for an ungaged watershed. For some storm events it delivers good results, while for others, no parameter vectors can be found. In order to have a general methodology based on these ideas, further calibration and compromising of results on the dependence of many flood events parameters and catchment properties is required.

Keywords: flood risk management, flash flood, semi arid region, El Assi River, hazard maps

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Authors: Mina Naeini, Thomas A. Adams II

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Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) feature high electrical efficiency and generate substantial amounts of waste heat that make them suitable for integrated community energy systems (ICEs). By harvesting and distributing the waste heat through hot water pipelines, SOFCs can meet thermal demand of the communities. Therefore, they can replace traditional gas boilers and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite these advantages of SOFCs over competing power generation units, this technology has not been successfully commercialized in large-scale to replace traditional generators in ICEs. One reason is that SOFC performance deteriorates over long-term operation, which makes it difficult to find the proper sizing of the cells for a particular ICE system. In order to find the optimal sizing and operating conditions of SOFCs in a community, a proper knowledge of degradation mechanisms and effects of operating conditions on SOFCs long-time performance is required. The simplified SOFC models that exist in the current literature usually do not provide realistic results since they usually underestimate rate of performance drop by making too many assumptions or generalizations. In addition, some of these models have been obtained from experimental data by curve-fitting methods. Although these models are valid for the range of operating conditions in which experiments were conducted, they cannot be generalized to other conditions and so have limited use for most ICEs. In the present study, a general, detailed degradation-based model is proposed that predicts the performance of conventional SOFCs over a long period of time at different operating conditions. Conventional SOFCs are composed of Yttria Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) as electrolyte, Ni-cermet anodes, and LaSr₁₋ₓMnₓO₃ (LSM) cathodes. The following degradation processes are considered in this model: oxidation and coarsening of nickel particles in the Ni-cermet anodes, changes in the pore radius in anode, electrolyte, and anode electrical conductivity degradation, and sulfur poisoning of the anode compartment. This model helps decision makers discover the optimal sizing and operation of the cells for a stable, efficient performance with the fewest assumptions. It is suitable for a wide variety of applications. Sulfur contamination of the anode compartment is an important cause of performance drop in cells supplied with hydrocarbon-based fuel sources. H₂S, which is often added to hydrocarbon fuels as an odorant, can diminish catalytic behavior of Ni-based anodes by lowering their electrochemical activity and hydrocarbon conversion properties. Therefore, the existing models in the literature for H₂-supplied SOFCs cannot be applied to hydrocarbon-fueled SOFCs as they only account for the electrochemical activity reduction. A regression model is developed in the current work for sulfur contamination of the SOFCs fed with hydrocarbon fuel sources. The model is developed as a function of current density and H₂S concentration in the fuel. To the best of authors' knowledge, it is the first model that accounts for impact of current density on sulfur poisoning of cells supplied with hydrocarbon-based fuels. Proposed model has wide validity over a range of parameters and is consistent across multiple studies by different independent groups. Simulations using the degradation-based model illustrated that SOFCs voltage drops significantly in the first 1500 hours of operation. After that, cells exhibit a slower degradation rate. The present analysis allowed us to discover the reason for various degradation rate values reported in literature for conventional SOFCs. In fact, the reason why literature reports very different degradation rates, is that literature is inconsistent in definition of how degradation rate is calculated. In the literature, the degradation rate has been calculated as the slope of voltage versus time plot with the unit of voltage drop percentage per 1000 hours operation. Due to the nonlinear profile of voltage over time, degradation rate magnitude depends on the magnitude of time steps selected to calculate the curve's slope. To avoid this issue, instantaneous rate of performance drop is used in the present work. According to a sensitivity analysis, the current density has the highest impact on degradation rate compared to other operating factors, while temperature and hydrogen partial pressure affect SOFCs performance less. The findings demonstrated that a cell running at lower current density performs better in long-term in terms of total average energy delivered per year, even though initially it generates less power than if it had a higher current density. This is because of the dominant and devastating impact of large current densities on the long-term performance of SOFCs, as explained by the model.

Keywords: degradation rate, long-term performance, optimal operation, solid oxide fuel cells, SOFCs

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