Search results for: Selamawit Mulubrhan Gidey

Authors: Selamawit Mulubrhan Gidey

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Adama city, having an area of 29.86 km2, is one of the main cities in Ethiopia experiencing rapid growth in business and construction activities which in turn with an increasing number of vehicles at an alarming rate. For this reason, currently, there is an attempt to develop public transport assignment modeling in the city. Still, there is a huge gap in developing public transport assignments along the road segments of the city with operational and safety performance due to high traffic volume. Thus, the introduction of public transport assignment modeling in Adama City can have a massive impact on the road safety and capacity problem in the city. City transport modeling is important in city transportation planning, particularly in overcoming existing transportation problems such as traffic congestion. In this study, the Adama City transportation model was developed using the PTV VISUM software, whose transportation modeling is based on the four-step model of transportation. Based on the traffic volume data fed and simulated, the result of the study shows that the developed model has better reliability in representing the traffic congestion conditions in Adama city, and the simulation clearly indicates the level of congestion of each route selected and thus, the city road administrative office can take managerial decisions on public transport assignment so as to overcome traffic congestion executed along the selected routes.

Keywords: trip modelling, PTV VISUM, public transport assignment, congestion

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Authors: Selamawit Hirpa, Girmay Medhin, Belaineh Girma, Muluken Melese, Alemayehu Mekonen, Pedro Suarez, Gobena Ameni

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Worldwide, there were 650,000 multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) cases in 2010. Ethiopia is 15th among the 27 MDR-TB high-burden countries. A case control study was conducted at St. Peter Hospital and five health centers in Addis Ababa. Cases were MDR-TB patients who were in treatment at St. Peter Hospital during the study period. Controls were patients who were on first-line anti-TB treatment and were registered as cured or having completed treatment in the period 9 April 2009– 28 February 2010, in five health centers. A structured interview questionnaire was used to assess factors that could potentially be associated with the occurrence of MDR-TB. Factors that were significantly associated with MDR-TB: drug side effects during first-line treatment (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 4.5, 95% CI; 1.9 - 10.5); treatment not directly observed by a health worker (AOR = 11.7, 95% CI; 4–34.3); and retreatment with the Category II regimen (P = 0.000).

Keywords: adherence to TB treatment, MDR-TB, TB treatment, TB treatment regimens

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Authors: Michael Gidey Gebru

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Most DEA models operate in a static environment with input and output parameters that are chosen by deterministic data. However, due to ambiguity brought on shifting market conditions, input and output data are not always precisely gathered in real-world scenarios. Fuzzy numbers can be used to address this kind of ambiguity in input and output data. Therefore, this work aims to expand crisp DEA into DEA with fuzzy environment. In this study, the input and output data are regarded as fuzzy triangular numbers. Then, the DEA model with fuzzy environment is solved using a multi-objective method to gauge the Decision Making Units’ efficiency. Finally, the developed DEA model is illustrated with an application on real data 50 educational institutions.

Keywords: efficiency, DEA, fuzzy, decision making units, higher education institutions

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Authors: Haymanot Gebre-Amlak, Selamawit Gebre-Amlak

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Since its original declaration in the 18th century, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels's Communist Manifesto has become one of the most influential political tracts. Socialism is a political path that leads towards communism by fostering a cooperative economy through the creation of cooperative enterprises, common ownership, state ownership, or shared equity. The ultimate objective of communism is to bring everyone working toward the same collective goal of a healthy, happy, and free society. The European establishment of 19-century colonial rule over the continent of Africa reinforced inflows of European investment and forced a profound change in the operation of labor and land markets. The colonial era and forced labor schemes in Africa lasted for several decades. When exiting from colonialism, these African countries were attracted to socialism’s ideology to bridge the social gap and freedom to their society. In this paper, we compare a pre and post socialist ideology and the impact in various African countries. We analyse the different aspects, which led to inconsistent outcomes. Our finding indicates that while they have some facets in common, each African country had a unique interpretation and influence from the socialist ideology.

Keywords: African politics, socialism in Africa, African history, Africa

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Authors: Michael Gidey Gebru

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Most of Data Envelopment Analysis models operate in a static environment with input and output parameters that are chosen by deterministic data. However, due to ambiguity brought on shifting market conditions, input and output data are not always precisely gathered in real-world scenarios. Fuzzy numbers can be used to address this kind of ambiguity in input and output data. Therefore, this work aims to expand crisp Data Envelopment Analysis into Data Envelopment Analysis with fuzzy environment. In this study, the input and output data are regarded as fuzzy triangular numbers. Then, the Data Envelopment Analysis model with fuzzy environment is solved using a multi-objective method to gauge the Decision Making Units' efficiency. Finally, the developed Data Envelopment Analysis model is illustrated with an application on real data 50 educational institutions.

Keywords: efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis, fuzzy, higher education, input, output

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Authors: Tadesse Desta Gidey, Gebregziabher Kahsay, Pooran Singh

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This work focuses on the theoretical investigation of the coexistence of superconductivity and Spin Density Wave (SDW)in Ferropnictide Ba₁₋ₓKₓFe₂As₂. By developing a model Hamiltonian for the system and by using quantum field theory Green’s function formalism, we have obtained mathematical expressions for superconducting transition temperature TC), spin density wave transition temperature (Tsdw), superconductivity order parameter (Sc), and spin density wave order parameter (sdw). By employing the experimental and theoretical values of the parameters in the obtained expressions, phase diagrams of superconducting transition temperature (TC) versus superconducting order parameter (Sc) and spin density wave transition temperature (Tsdw), versus spin density wave order parameter (sdw) have been plotted. By combining the two phase diagrams, we have demonstrated the possible coexistence of superconductivity and spin density wave (SDW) in ferropnictide Ba1−xKxFe2As2.

Keywords: Superconductivity, Spin density wave, Coexistence, Green function, Pnictides, Ba₁₋ₓKₓFe₂As₂

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Authors: Grmanesh Gidey Kahsay

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In modern technical engineering applications, quality is defined in two ways. The first one is that quality is the parameter that measures a product or service’s characteristics to meet and satisfy the pre-stated or fundamental needs (reliability, durability, serviceability). The second one is the quality of a product or service free of any defect or deficiencies. The American Society for Quality (ASQ) describes quality as a pursuit of optimal solutions to confirm successes and fulfillment to be accountable for the product or service's requirements and expectations. This article focuses on quality engineering tools in modern industrial applications. Quality engineering is a field of engineering that deals with the principles, techniques, models, and applications of the product or service to guarantee quality. Including the entire activities to analyze the product’s design and development, quality engineering emphasizes how to make sure that products and services are designed and developed to meet consumers’ requirements. This episode acquaints with quality tools such as quality systems, auditing, product design, and process control. The finding presents thoughts that aim to improve quality engineering proficiency and effectiveness by introducing essential quality techniques and tools in some selected industries.

Keywords: essential quality tools, quality systems and models, quality management systems, and quality assurance

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Authors: Selamawit Dires, Solomon Tesfamariam, Thomas Tannert

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Modern earthquake engineering and design encompass performance-based design philosophy. The main objective in performance-based design is to achieve a system performing precisely to meet the design objectives so to reduce unintended seismic risks and associated losses. Energy-based earthquake-resistant design is one of the design methodologies that can be implemented in performance-based earthquake engineering. In energy-based design, the seismic demand is usually described as the ratio of the hysteretic to input energy. Once the hysteretic energy is known as a percentage of the input energy, it is distributed among energy-dissipating components of a structure. The hysteretic to input energy ratio is highly dependent on the inherent damping of a structural system. In numerical analysis, damping can be modeled as stiffness-proportional, mass-proportional, or a linear combination of stiffness and mass. In this study, the effect of mathematical modeling of damping on the estimation of seismic energy demands is investigated by considering elastic-perfectly-plastic single-degree-of-freedom systems representing short to long period structures. Furthermore, the seismicity of Vancouver, Canada, is used in the nonlinear time history analysis. According to the preliminary results, the input energy demand is not sensitive to the type of damping models deployed. Hence, consistent results are achieved regardless of the damping models utilized in the numerical analyses. On the other hand, the hysteretic to input energy ratios vary significantly for the different damping models.

Keywords: damping, energy-based seismic design, hysteretic energy, input energy

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Authors: Masho Mebrahtom Gebrehiwot, Gidey Yirga

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Tigray highlands in northern Ethiopia, is characterized by a wide range of ecological conditions and climate. The siege of Tigray is believed to cause the deaths of nearly 600,000 civilians mainly due to starvation and lack of medicine. In this study, the most important edible and medicinal plants used during the siege of Tigray were investigated. Semi-structured interviews, observation and guided field walks were used in 500 informants (300 males and 200 females) selected randomly from two districts. A total of 25 species of medicinal plants were collected and identified for treating 30 human ailments. Furthermore, a total of 21 edible plants were also collected and identified. Nearly 68.75% of these species were wild and harvested mainly for their leaves and the remedies were administered through dermal, nasal and oral routes. Oral and dermal applications were the highest and most used route of application. Famen foods significantly saved thousands of human lives during the siege of Tigray both in urban and rural communities. We suggest domestication of some of the wild medicinal plants for long term conservation of the species. Documentation of farmers’ knowledge, attitude and practices of ethnobotany would be very important before the indigenous knowledge is lost forever.

Keywords: ethnobotany, tigray, siege, application

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Authors: Mulubrhan Berihu

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Due to the design versatility, availability, and cost efficiency, concrete continues to be the most used construction material on earth. However, the production of Portland cement, the primary component of concrete mix is causing to have a serious effect on environmental and economic impacts. This shows there is a need to study using of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). The most commonly used supplementary cementitious materials are wastes, and the use of these industrial waste products has technical, economic, and environmental benefits besides the reduction of CO2 emission from cement production. This paper aims to document the effect on the strength property of concrete due to the use of low cement by maximizing supplementary cementitious materials like fly ash. The amount of cement content was below 250 kg/m3, and in all the mixes, the quantity of powder (cement + fly ash) is almost kept at about 500 kg. According to this, seven different cement content (250 kg/m3, 195 kg/m3, 150 kg/m3, 125 kg/m3, 100 kg/m3, 85 kg/m3, 70 kg/m3) with different amount of replacement of SCMs was conducted. The mix proportion was prepared by keeping the water content constant and varying the cement content, SCMs, and water-to-binder ratio. Based on the different mix proportions of fly ash, a range of mix designs was formulated. The test results showed that using up to 85 kg/m3 of cement is possible for plain concrete works like hollow block concrete to achieve 9.8 Mpa, and the experimental results indicate that strength is a function of w/b. The experiment result shows a big difference in gaining of compressive strength from 7 days to 28 days and this obviously shows the slow rate of hydration of fly ash concrete. As the w/b ratio increases, the strength decreases significantly. At the same time, higher permeability was seen in the specimens which were tested for three hours than one hour.

Keywords: efficiency factor, cement content, compressive strength, mix proportion, w/c ratio, water permeability, SCMs

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Authors: Mulubrhan Berihu, Supratic Gupta, Zena Gebriel

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Due to the design versatility, availability, and cost efficiency, concrete is continuing to be the most used construction material on earth. However, the production of Portland cement, the primary component of concrete mix is causing to have a serious effect on environmental and economic impacts. This shows there is a need to study using of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). The most commonly used supplementary cementitious materials are wastes and the use of these industrial waste products has technical, economical and environmental benefits besides the reduction of CO2 emission from cement production. The study aims to document the effect on strength property of concrete due to use of low cement by maximizing supplementary cementitious materials like fly ash or marble powder. Based on the different mix proportion of pozzolana and marble powder a range of mix design was formulated. The first part of the project is to study the strength of low cement concrete using fly ash replacement experimentally. The test results showed that using up to 85 kg/m3 of cement is possible for plain concrete works like hollow block concrete to achieve 9.8 Mpa and the experimental results indicates that strength is a function of w/b. In the second part a new set of mix design has been carried out with fly ash and marble powder to study the strength of both binary and ternary mixes. In this experimental study, three groups of mix design (c+FA, c+FA+m and c+m), four sets of mixes for each group were taken up. Experimental results show that c+FA has maintained the best strength and impermeability whereas c+m obtained less compressive strength, poorer permeability and split tensile strength. c+FA shows a big difference in gaining of compressive strength from 7 days to 28 days compression strength compared to others and this obviously shows the slow rate of hydration of fly ash concrete. As the w/b ratio increases the strength decreases significantly. At the same time higher permeability has been seen in the specimens which were tested for three hours than one hour.

Keywords: efficiency factor, cement content, compressive strength, mix proportion, w/c ratio, water permeability, SCMs

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Authors: S. Abera, T. Gidey, W. Terefe

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Introduction: Testing for HIV is the key entry point to HIV prevention, treatment, and care and support services. Hence, predictive data mining techniques can greatly benefit to analyze and discover new patterns from huge datasets like that of EDHS 2011 data. Objectives: The objective of this study is to build a predictive modeling for HIV testing and identify determinants of HIV testing for adults with age above fourteen years using data mining techniques. Methods: Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) was used to predict the model for HIV testing and explore association rules between HIV testing and the selected attributes among adult Ethiopians. Decision tree, Naïve-Bayes, logistic regression and artificial neural networks of data mining techniques were used to build the predictive models. Results: The target dataset contained 30,625 study participants; of which 16, 515 (53.9%) were women. Nearly two-fifth; 17,719 (58%), have never been tested for HIV while the rest 12,906 (42%) had been tested. Ethiopians with higher wealth index, higher educational level, belonging 20 to 29 years old, having no stigmatizing attitude towards HIV positive person, urban residents, having HIV related knowledge, information about family planning on mass media and knowing a place where to get testing for HIV showed an increased patterns with respect to HIV testing. Conclusion and Recommendation: Public health interventions should consider the identified determinants to promote people to get testing for HIV.

Keywords: data mining, HIV, testing, ethiopia

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Authors: Markus Feufel, Friederike Kendel, Caren Hilger, Selamawit Woldai

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Since the corona pandemic, the use of video consultation has increased remarkably. For vulnerable groups such as oncological patients, the advantages seem obvious. But how does video consultation potentially change the doctor-patient relationship compared to face-to-face consultation? Which barriers may hinder the effective use of this consultation format in practice? We are presenting first results from a mixed-methods field study, funded by Federal Ministry of Health, which will provide the basis for a hands-on guide for both physicians and patients on how to improve the quality of video consultations. We use a quasi-experimental design to analyze qualitative and quantitative differences between face-to-face and video consultations based on video recordings of N = 64 actual counseling sessions (n = 32 for each consultation format). Data will be recorded from n = 32 gynecological and n = 32 urological cancer patients at two clinics. After the consultation, all patients will be asked to fill out a questionnaire about their consultation experience. For quantitative analyses, the counseling sessions will be systematically compared in terms of verbal and nonverbal communication patterns. Relative frequencies of eye contact and the information exchanged will be compared using 𝝌2 -tests. The validated questionnaire MAPPIN'Obsdyad will be used to assess the expression of shared decision-making parameters. In addition, semi-structured interviews will be conducted with n = 10 physicians and n = 10 patients experienced with video consultation, for which a qualitative content analysis will be conducted. We will elaborate the comprehensive methodological approach we used to compare video vs. face-to-face consultations and present first evidence on how video consultations change the doctor-patient interaction. We will also outline possible barriers of video consultations and best practices on how they may be overcome. Based on the results, we will present and discuss recommendations outlining best practices for how to prepare and conduct high-quality video consultations from the perspective of both physicians and patients.

Keywords: video consultation, patient-doctor-relationship, digital applications, technical barriers

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Authors: Daniel Gidey, Kunwar Siddarth Dadhwal, Tagel Wondimu

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There are numerous ways for ending conflict; hitherto, most conflicts are resolved either through negotiated or victor's peace, this article is about the former. Negotiations entail concessions, consensus-building, and mutual trust in order to transform a belligerent situation into a settlement. In such a context, regional and sub-regional organizations play a critical role in mediating conflicting parties so as to prevent, manage, and resolve conflicts between and among conflicting parties. This article is about the AU-led negotiated peace deal on the bloody conflict between the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) by undertaking the Pretoria Peace Accord as a case study. In terms of research method, the article is based on a critical evaluation of the literature and content analysis on the very research topic. Findings of the study revealed that the AU, through Olusegun Obasanjo and other dignitaries, played a critical role in nurturing compromise and mutual trust between the TPLF and the Ethiopian federal government so as to take along the Pretoria peace deal. Through critical literature review and content analysis of the Peace deal, the article has concluded that negotiated peace is likely, at least, to achieve negative peace.

Keywords: regional organizations, peace promotion, African Union, negotiating conflicts, Northern Ethiopia, conflict resolution

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Authors: Yemane Tadesse Gebreslassie, Henok Gidey Gebretnsae

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Nanotechnology has emerged as a highly promising field of research with wide-ranging applications across various scientific disciplines. In recent years, tin oxide has garnered significant attention due to its intriguing properties, particularly when synthesized in the nanoscale range. While numerous physical and chemical methods exist for producing tin oxide nanoparticles, these approaches tend to be costly, energy-intensive, and involve the use of toxic chemicals. Given the growing concerns regarding human health and environmental impact, there has been a shift towards developing cost-effective and environmentally friendly processes for tin oxide nanoparticle synthesis. Green synthesis methods utilizing biological entities such as plant extracts, bacteria, and natural biomolecules have shown promise in successfully producing tin oxide nanoparticles. However, scaling up the production to an industrial level using green synthesis approaches remains challenging due to the complexity of biological substrates, which hinders the elucidation of reaction mechanisms and formation processes. Thus, this review aims to provide an overview of the various sources of biological entities and methodologies employed in the green synthesis of tin oxide nanoparticles, as well as their impact on nanoparticle properties. Furthermore, this research delves into the strides made in comprehending the mechanisms behind the formation of nanoparticles as documented in existing literature. It also sheds light on the array of analytical techniques employed to investigate and elucidate the characteristics of these minuscule particles.

Keywords: nanotechnology, tin oxide, green synthesis, formation mechanisms

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Authors: Tesfay Gidey Bezabeh, Tânia Sofia Oliveira, Josep Crous-Duran, João H. N. Palma

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Ethiopia's economy depends strongly on Coffea arabica production. Coffee, like many other crops, is sensitive to climate change. An urgent development and application of strategies against the negative impacts of climate change on coffee production is important. Agroforestry-based system is one of the strategies that may ensure sustainable coffee production amidst the likelihood of future impacts of climate change. This system involves the combination of trees in buffer extremes, thereby modifying microclimate conditions. This paper assessed coffee production under 1) coffee monoculture and 2) coffee grown using an agroforestry system, under a) current climate and b) two different future climate change scenarios. The study focused on two representative coffee-growing regions of Ethiopia under different soil, climate, and elevation conditions. A process-based growth model (Yield-SAFE) was used to simulate coffee production for a time horizon of 40 years. Climate change scenarios considered were representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The results revealed that in monoculture systems, the current coffee yields are between 1200-1250 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with an expected decrease between 4-38% and 20-60% in scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. However, in agroforestry systems, the current yields are between 1600-2200 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; the decrease was lower, ranging between 4-13% and 16-25% in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. From the results, it can be concluded that coffee production under agroforestry systems has a higher level of resilience when facing future climate change and reinforces the idea of using this type of management in the near future for adapting climate change's negative impacts on coffee production.

Keywords: Albizia gummifera, CORDEX, Ethiopia, HADCM3 model, process-based model

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Authors: Tesfay Gidey, Emiru Birhane, Ashenafi Manaye, Hailemariam Kassa, Tesfay Atsbha, Negasi Solomon, Hadgu Hishe, Aklilu Negussie, Petr Madera, Jose G. Borges

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The globally endangered Dracaena ombet is one of the ten dragon multipurpose tree species in arid ecosystems. Anthropogenic and natural factors are now impacting the sustainability of the species. This study was conducted to prioritize criteria and alternative strategies for the conservation of the species using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model by involving all relevant stakeholders in the Desa'a dry Afromontane forest in northern Ethiopia. Information about the potential alternative strategies and the criteria for their evaluation was first collected from experts, personal experiences, and literature reviews. Afterward, they were validated using stakeholders' focus group discussions. Five candidate strategies with three evaluation criteria were considered for prioritization using the AHP techniques. The overall priority ranking value of the stakeholders showed that the ecological criterion was deemed as the most essential factor for the choice of alternative strategies, followed by the economic and social criteria. The minimum cut-off strategy, combining exclosures with the collection of only 5% of plant parts from the species, soil and water conservation, and silviculture interventions, was selected as the best alternative strategy for sustainable D. ombet conservation. The livelihood losses due to the selected strategy should be compensated by the collection of non-timber forest products, poultry farming, home gardens, rearing small ruminants, beekeeping, and agroforestry. This approach may be extended to study other dragon tree species and explore strategies for the conservation of other arid ecosystems.

Keywords: conservation strategies, analytical hierarchy process model, Desa'a forest, endangered species, Ethiopia, overexploitation

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Authors: Weldeabrha Kiros Kidanemaryam, DepaTesfay Kelali Gidey, Yikaalo Welu Kidanemariam

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Dairy services are considered as sources of income, employment, nutrition and health for smallholder rural and urban farmers. The main objective of this study is to assess the interlinkage of dairy farms and small-scale dairy processing in Mekelle, Tigray. To achieve the stated objective, a descriptive research approach was employed where data was collected from 45 dairy farmers and 40 small-scale processors and analyzed by calculating the mean values and percentages. Findings show that the dairy business in the study area is characterized by a shortage of feed and water for the farm. The dairy farm is dominated by breeds of hybrid type, followed by the so called ‘begait’. Though the farms have access to medication and vaccination for the cattle, they fell short of hygiene practices, reliable shade for the cattle and separate space for the claves. The value chain at the milk production stage is characterized by a low production rate, selling raw milk without adding value and a very meager traditional processing practice. Furthermore, small-scale milk processors are characterized by collecting milk from farmers and producing cheese, butter, ghee and sour milk. They do not engage in modern milk processing like pasteurized milk, yogurt and table butter. Most small-scale milk processors are engaged in traditional production systems. Additionally, the milk consumption and marketing part of the chain is dominated by the informal market (channel), where market problems, lack of skill and technology, shortage of loans and weak policy support are being faced as the main challenges. Based on the findings, recommendations and future research areas are forwarded.

Keywords: value-chain, dairy, milk production, milk processing

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Authors: Daniel Gidey, Kunwar Siddarth Dadhwal

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By evaluating India's aid systems and ongoing development initiatives, this conference paper offers light on India's role as a source of developmental assistance in Africa. This research attempts to provide insights into the developing landscape of foreign aid and development cooperation by focusing on understanding India's motivations and strategy. In recent years, India's connection with Africa has grown significantly, driven by economic, political, and strategic reasons. This conference paper covers India's many forms of aid, including financial, capacity building efforts, technical assistance, and infrastructure development projects, via a thorough investigation. The article seeks to establish India's priorities and highlight the possible impacts of its development assistance in Africa by examining the industries and locations of concentration. Using secondary data sources, the investigation delves into the underlying goals of India's aid policy in Africa. It investigates whether India's development assistance is consistent with its broader geopolitical aims, such as access to resources, competing with regional rivals, or strengthening diplomatic ties. Furthermore, the article investigates how India's aid policy combines the ideals of South-South cooperation and mutual development, as well as the ramifications for recipient countries. Furthermore, the paper assesses the efficacy and sustainability of India's aid operations in Africa. It takes into account the elements that influence their success, the problems they face, and the amount to which they contribute to local development goals, community empowerment, and poverty alleviation. The study also focuses on the accountability systems, transparency, and knowledge transfer aspects of India's development assistance. By providing a detailed examination of India's aid endeavors in Africa, the paper adds to the current literature on international development cooperation. By offering fresh insights into the motives, strategies, and impacts of India's assistance programs, it seeks to enhance understanding of the emerging patterns in South-South cooperation and the complex dynamics of contemporary international aid architecture.

Keywords: India, Africa, developmental assistance, aid projects and South-South cooperation

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Authors: Emiru Birhane, Tesfay Gidey, Haftu Abrha, Abrha Brhan, Amanuel Zenebe, Girmay Gebresamuel, Florent Noulèkoun

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Dracaena ombet and Dobera glabra are two of the most rare and endangered tree species in dryland areas. Unfortunately, their sustainability is being compromised by different anthropogenic and natural factors. However, the impacts of ongoing land use and climate change on the population structure and distribution of the species are less explored. This study was carried out in the grazing lands and hillside areas of the Desa'a dry Afromontane forest, northern Ethiopia, to characterize the population structure of the species and predict the impact of climate change on their potential distributions. In each land-use type, abundance, diameter at breast height, and height of the trees were collected using 70 sampling plots distributed over seven transects spaced one km apart. The geographic coordinates of each individual tree were also recorded. The results showed that the species populations were characterized by low abundance and unstable population structure. The latter was evinced by a lack of seedlings and mature trees. The study also revealed that the total abundance and dendrometric traits of the trees were significantly different between the two land uses. The hillside areas had a denser abundance of bigger and taller trees than the grazing lands. Climate change predictions using the MaxEnt model highlighted that future temperature increases coupled with reduced precipitation would lead to significant reductions in the suitable habitats of the species in northern Ethiopia. The species' suitable habitats were predicted to decline by 48–83% for D. ombet and 35–87% for D. glabra. Hence, to sustain the species populations, different strategies should be adopted, namely the introduction of alternative livelihoods (e.g., gathering NTFP) to reduce the overexploitation of the species for subsistence income and the protection of the current habitats that will remain suitable in the future using community-based exclosures. Additionally, the preservation of the species' seeds in gene banks is crucial to ensure their long-term conservation.

Keywords: grazing lands, hillside areas, land-use change, MaxEnt, range limitation, rare and endangered tree species

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