Search results for: Gilberto Goracci

Authors: Gilberto Goracci, Fabio Curti

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This work presents a robust, light, and inexpensive algorithm to perform autonomous orbit determination using onboard magnetometer data in real-time. Magnetometers are low-cost and reliable sensors typically available on a spacecraft for attitude determination purposes, thus representing an interesting choice to perform real-time orbit determination without the need to add additional sensors to the spacecraft itself. Magnetic field measurements can be exploited by Extended/Unscented Kalman Filters (EKF/UKF) for orbit determination purposes to make up for GPS outages, yielding errors of a few kilometers and tens of meters per second in the position and velocity of a spacecraft, respectively. While this level of accuracy shows that Kalman filtering represents a solid baseline for autonomous orbit determination, it is not enough to provide a reliable state estimation in the absence of GPS signals. This work combines the solidity and reliability of the EKF with the versatility of a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to further increase the precision of the state estimation. Deep learning models, in fact, can grasp nonlinear relations between the inputs, in this case, the magnetometer data and the EKF state estimations, and the targets, namely the true position, and velocity of the spacecraft. The model has been pre-trained on Sun-Synchronous orbits (SSO) up to 2126 kilometers of altitude with different initial conditions and levels of noise to cover a wide range of possible real-case scenarios. The orbits have been propagated considering J2-level dynamics, and the geomagnetic field has been modeled using the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) coefficients up to the 13th order. The training of the module can be completed offline using the expected orbit of the spacecraft to heavily reduce the onboard computational burden. Once the spacecraft is launched, the model can use the GPS signal, if available, to fine-tune the parameters on the actual orbit onboard in real-time and work autonomously during GPS outages. In this way, the provided module shows versatility, as it can be applied to any mission operating in SSO, but at the same time, the training is completed and eventually fine-tuned, on the specific orbit, increasing performances and reliability. The results provided by this study show an increase of one order of magnitude in the precision of state estimate with respect to the use of the EKF alone. Tests on simulated and real data will be shown.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, extended Kalman filter, orbit determination, magnetic field

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Authors: Gerardo Ayala-Jaimes, Gilberto Gonzalez-Avalos, Allen A. Castillo, Alejandra Jimenez

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The modeling of a single-phase cycloconverter in Bond Graph is presented, which includes an alternating current power supply, hybrid dynamics, switch control, and resistive load; this approach facilitates the integration of systems across different energy domains and structural analysis. Cycloconverters, used in motor control, demonstrate the viability of graphical modeling. The use of Bonds is proposed to model the hybrid interaction of the system, and the results are displayed through simulations using 20Sim and Multisim software. The motivation behind developing these models with a graphical approach is to design and build low-cost energy converters, thereby making the main contribution of this document the modeling and simulation of a single-phase cycloconverter.

Keywords: bond graph, hybrid system, rectifier, cycloconverter, modelling

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Authors: Jhon Vargas, Gilberto Osorio-Gomez, Tatiana Manrique

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This work presents an optimal driving strategy proposal for a 125 c.c. street-type hybrid electric motorcycle with a parallel configuration. The results presented in this article are complementary regarding the control proposal of a hybrid motorcycle. In order to carry out such developments, a representative dynamic model of the motorcycle is used, in which also are described different optimization functionalities for predetermined driving modes. The purpose is to implement an off-line optimal driving strategy which distributes energy to both engines by minimizing an objective torque requirement function. An optimal dynamic contribution is found from the optimization routine, and the optimal percentage contribution for vehicle cruise speed is implemented in the proposed online PID controller.

Keywords: dynamic model, driving strategies, parallel hybrid motorcycle, PID controller, optimization

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Authors: Raquel Salazar Moreno, Uwe Schmidt, Efrén Fitz Rodríguez, Dennis Dannehl, Abraham Rojano Aguilar, Irineo López Cruz, Gilberto Navas Gómez

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As urban areas expand, strategic and protected water reserves become more critical. In this study we investigate the water problems in Mexico City and its Metropolitan area. This region faces a complex water problem that concerns not only Mexican boundaries but also international level because is one of the biggest human concentrations in the World. The current water shortage situation raises the necessity of importing surface and groundwater from the Cutzamala River and from the Alto Rio Lerma System respectively. Water management is the real issue in this region, because waste water generation is more than aquifer overexploitation, and surface water loss in the rainfall period is greater than water imported from other regions. However, the possible solutions of the water supply schemes are complicated, there is a need to look for alternatives socially acceptable and environmentally desirable, considering first the possible solutions on the demand side. Also, it is necessary more investment in water treatment plants and hydraulic infrastructure to ensure water supply and decrease the environmental problems in the area. More studies need to be done related to water efficiency in the three sectors.

Keywords: megacities, aquifer overexploitation, environmental problems, vulnerability

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Authors: U. Schmidt, D. Dannehl, I. Schuch, J. Suhl, T. Rocksch, R. Salazar-Moreno, E. Fitz-Rodrigues, A. Rojano Aquilar, I. Lopez Cruz, G. Navas Gomez, R. A. Abraham, L. C. Irineo, N. G. Gilberto

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The integration of agricultural production systems into urban areas is a challenge for the coming decades. Because of increasing greenhouse gas emission and rising resource consumption as well as costs in animal husbandry, the dietary habits of people in the 21st century have to focus on herbal foods. Intensive plant cultivation systems in large cities and megacities require a smart coupling of information, material and energy flow with the urban infrastructure in terms of Horticulture 4.0. In recent years, many puzzle pieces have been developed for these closed processes at the Humboldt University. To compile these for an urban plant production, it has to be optimized and networked with urban infrastructure systems. In the field of heat energy production, it was shown that with closed greenhouse technology and patented heat exchange and storage technology energy can be provided for heating and domestic hot water supply in the city. Closed water circuits can be drastically reducing the water requirements of plant production in urban areas. Ion sensitive sensors and new disinfection methods can help keep circulating nutrient solutions in the system for a longer time in urban plant production greenhouses.

Keywords: semi closed, greenhouses, urban farming, solar heat collector, closed water cycles, aquaponics

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Authors: Hernan D. Mejia, Gilberto B. Gaitan, Mauricio A. Franco

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420 steel is normally used in the manufacture of dental and surgical instrumentation, as well as parts in the chemical, pharmaceutical, and food industries, among others, where they must withstand heavy loads and often be in contact with corrosive environments, which leads to wear and deterioration of these steels in relatively short times. In the case of medical applications, the instruments made of this steel also suffer wear and corrosion during the repetitive sterilization processes due to the relatively low achievable hardness of just 50 HRC and its hardly acceptable resistance to corrosion. In order to improve the wear resistance of 420 steel, TiAlN coatings were deposited, increasing the aluminum content in the alloy by varying the power applied to the aluminum target of 900, 1100, and 1300 W. Evaluations using XRD, Micro Raman, XPS, AFM, SEM, and TEM showed a columnar growth crystal structure with an average thickness of 2 microns and consisting of the TiN and TiAlN phases, whose roughness and grain size decrease with a higher Al content. The AlN phase also appears in the sample deposited at 1300W. The hardness, determined by nanoindentation, initially increases with the aluminum content from 9.7 GPa to 17.1 GPa, but then decreases to 15.4 GPa for the sample with the highest aluminum content due to the appearance of hexagonal AlN and a decrease of harder TiN and TiAlN phases. It was observed that the wear coefficient had a contrary behavior, which took values of 2.7; 1.7 and 6.6x10⁻⁶ mm³/N.m, respectively. All the coated samples significantly improved the wear resistance of the uncoated 420 steel.

Keywords: hard coatings, magnetron sputtering, TiAlN coatings, surgical instruments, wear resistance

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Authors: Thiago Victor Cordeiro Marcos, Joao Felipe de Araujo Martos, Ronaldo de Lima Cardoso, David Romanelli Pinto, Paulo Gilberto de Paula Toro, Israel da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

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Currently, the use of 3D rapid prototyping, also known as 3D printing, has been investigated by some universities around the world as an innovative technique, fast, flexible and cheap for a direct plastic models manufacturing that are lighter and with complex geometries to be tested for hypersonic shock tunnel. Initially, the purpose is integrated prototyped parts with metal models that actually are manufactured through of the conventional machining and hereafter replace them with completely prototyped models. The mechanical design models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel are based on conventional manufacturing processes, therefore are limited forms and standard geometries. The use of 3D rapid prototyping offers a range of options that enables geometries innovation and ways to be used for the design new models. The conception and project of a prototyped model for hypersonic shock tunnel should be rethought and adapted when comparing the conventional manufacturing processes, in order to fully exploit the creativity and flexibility that are allowed by the 3D prototyping process. The objective of this paper is to compare the conception and project of a 3D rapid prototyping model and a conventional machining model, while showing the advantages and disadvantages of each process and the benefits that 3D prototyping can bring to the manufacture of models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D prototyping, experimental research, hypersonic shock tunnel

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Authors: Giovanni Matheus Rech, Gilberto Zan, Filipe P. Aguiar

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The current pandemic scenario raises questions that many times would have previously gone unnoticed. One of these issues is the quality of the air we breathe in the most diverse environments in which we are inserted in an everyday. It is plausible to suppose that, at times like this, there is apprehension regarding the possibility of contamination by pathological agents such as viruses and bacterias through the airways. However, the renewal of indoor air, combined with a properly sanitized air conditioning system, are important tools for the prevention of viral diseases, as is the case with COVID-19. The bus is an example of an environment where renovation is applied to improve the quality of indoor air, helping to reduce the possibility of spreading pathological agents. Together with other care, such as an alcohol gel dispenser, curtains to separate the passengers, cleaning the environment more frequently, and mandatory use of masks, help to reduce the transmission of pathologies, such as COVID-19. Knowing the reality of a large part of the population regarding the need for public transport, there are standards and devices dedicated to promoting air quality, ensuring greater comfort and safety for users. This paper seeks to present such standards and recommendations to improve the quality of indoor air, as well as the equipment responsible for the renewal of the air in the body of a bus. Experimental measurement of the flow rates of the renewal devices present in the bus body allows quantifying the average volume of external air admitted in each type of body. This way, it was possible to compare, in terms of airflow per person, the values of a bus in relation to a series of other environments, using recommendations for air renewal are described through the Brazilian standard ABNT NBR 16401.

Keywords: air quality, air renewal, buses, Covid-19

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Authors: Izabel Cristina Zattar, Gilberto Passos Lima, Guilherme Schünemann de Oliveira

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In Brazil, there are several institutions committed to the development of new businesses based on product innovation. Among them are business incubators, universities and science institutes. Business incubators can be defined as nurseries for new companies, which may be in the technology segment, discussed in this article. Business incubators provide services related to infrastructure, such as physical space and meeting rooms. Besides these services, incubators also offer assistance in the form of information and communication, access to finance, relationship networks and business monitoring and mentoring processes. Business incubators support not all technology companies. One of the business incubators tasks is to assess the nature and feasibility of new business proposals. To assist this goal, this paper proposes a methodology for evaluating new business using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This paper presents the concepts used in the assessing methodology application for new business, concepts that have been tested with positive results in practice. This study counts on three main steps: first, a hierarchy was built, based on new business manuals used by the business incubators. These books and manuals relate business selection requirements, such as the innovation status and other technological aspects. Then, a questionnaire was generated, in order to guide incubator experts in the parity comparisons at all hierarchy levels. The weights of each requirement are calculated from information obtained from the questionnaire responses. Finally, the proposed method was applied to evaluate five new business proposals, which were applying to be part of a company incubator. The main result is the classification of these new businesses, which helped the incubator experts to decide what companies were more eligible to work with. This classification may also be helpful to the decision-making process of business incubators in future selection processes.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Brazilian companies incubators, technology companies, incubator

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Authors: Izabel Cristina Zattar, Gilberto Passos Lima, Guilherme Schünemann de Oliveira

Abstract:

In Brazil, there are several institutions committed to the development of new businesses based on product innovation. Among them are business incubators, universities and science institutes. Business incubators can be defined as nurseries for new companies, which may be in the technology segment, discussed in this article. Business incubators provide services related to infrastructure, such as physical space and meeting rooms. Besides these services, incubators also offer assistance in the form of information and communication, access to finance, relationship networks and business monitoring and mentoring processes. Business incubators support not all technology companies. One of the business incubators tasks is to assess the nature and feasibility of new business proposals. To assist in this goal, this paper proposes a methodology for evaluating new business using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This paper presents the concepts used in the assessing methodology application for new business, concepts that have been tested with positive results in practice. This study counts on three main steps: first, a hierarchy was built, based on new business manuals used by the business incubators. These books and manuals relate business selection requirements, such as the innovation status and other technological aspects. Then, a questionnaire was generated, in order to guide incubator experts in the parity comparisons at all hierarchy levels. The weights of each requirement are calculated from information obtained from the questionnaire responses. Finally, the proposed method was applied to evaluate five new business proposals, which were applying to be part of a company incubator. The main result is the classification of these new businesses, which helped the incubator experts to decide what companies were more eligible to work with. This classification may also be helpful to the decision-making process of business incubators in future selection processes.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Brazilian companies incubators, technology companies, incubator

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Authors: Zenaida M. De Guzman, Davison T. Baldos, Gilberto T. Diano, Jeff Darren G. Valdez, Levelyn Mitos Tolentino, Gina B. Abrera, Ma. Lucia Cobar, Cristina Gragasin

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One of the factors affecting the quality of brown rice is the free fatty acid produced from surface lipids. It is the purpose of the study to determine the effect of gamma radiation, packaging materials and age and variety of paddy on the surface free fatty acid content using two different brown rice variety, namely, RC-160 and SL-7, packed in two different packaging materials, namely, regular polyethylene bag and Super bag irradiated at 0.5 and 1.0 kGy. Brown rice was produced from 2-week old (Lot 1) and two months old paddy (Lot 2) and irradiated at the Co-60 Multipurpose Irradiation Facility, PNRI. The surface Free Fatty Acid (FFA) content was obtained following the AOCS Official Method (1982) with some modifications. The experiment was laid out using Split-Plot Randomized Control Block Design. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the effects of variety, age of paddy and interactions of both were both significant. The surface FFA of SL-7 variety was found to be significantly higher than the RC-160 variety for all radiation doses. Likewise, Lot 2 was observed to have higher surface FFA than Lot 1 regardless of packaging material and radiation dose. It was observed that the surface FFA of both varieties packed in both packaging materials increased significantly up to the 2nd or 3rd month of storage and remains the same until the 5th month. On the other hand, radiation dose did not significantly affect the surface free fatty acid content for all storage/sampling time while the packaging material significantly interacts with the type of variety and radiation dose. Gamma radiation was proven to have no significant effect on the surface free fatty acid at 0.5 and 1.0 kGy and further analyses are needed to determine the action of gamma radiation to the activity of enzyme (lipase-induced and microbial) responsible for the production of other lipolytic products and the effect of gamma radiation on the integrity of the packaging materials.

Keywords: brown rice, free fatty acid, gamma radiation, polyethylene bag

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Authors: Mario Alejandro Grisales, M. Daniela Chimá, Gilberto Bejarano Gaitán

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High entropy alloys (HEA) and nitride (HEN) are currently very attractive to the automotive, aerospace, metalworking and materials forming manufacturing industry, among others, for exhibiting higher mechanical properties, wear resistance, and thermal stability than binary and ternary alloys. In this work medium-entropy coatings of TiTaZrNb and the nitrides of (TiTaZrNb)Nx were synthesized on to AISI 420 and M2 steel samples by the direct current magnetron sputtering technique. The influence of the bias voltage supplied to the substrate on the microstructure, chemical- and phase composition of the matrix coating was evaluated, and the effect of nitrogen flow on the microstructural, mechanical and tribological properties of the corresponding nitrides was studied. A change in the crystalline structure from BCC for TiTaZrNb coatings to FCC for (TiTaZrNb)Nx was observed, that is associated with the incorporation of nitrogen into the matrix and the consequent formation of a solid solution of (TiTaZrNb)Nx. An increase in hardness and residual stresses was observed with increasing bias voltage for TiTaZrNb, reaching 12.8 GPa for the coating deposited with a bias of -130V. In the case of (TiTaZrNb)Nx nitride, a greater hardness of 23 GPa is achieved for the coating deposited with a N2 flow of 12 sccm, which slightly drops to 21.7 GPa for that deposited with N2 flow of 15 sccm. The slight reduction in hardness could be associated with the precipitation of the TiN and ZrN phases that are formed at higher nitrogen flows. The specific wear rate of the deposited coatings ranged between 0.5xexp13 and 0.6xexp13 N/m2. The steel substrate exhibited an average hardness of 2.0 GPa and a specific wear rate of 203.2exp13 N/m2. Both the hardness and the specific wear rate of the synthesized nitride coatings were higher than that of the steel substrate, showing a protective effect of the steel against wear.

Keywords: medium entropy coatings, hard coatings, magnetron sputtering, tribology, wear resistance

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Authors: Victor Alves Barros Galvão, Israel Da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos Oliveira, Paulo Gilberto De Paula Toro

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The Brazilian hypersonic aerospace vehicle 14-X B, VHA 14-X B, is a vehicle integrated with the hypersonic airbreathing propulsion system based on supersonic combustion (scramjet), developing in Aerothermodynamics and hypersonic Prof. Henry T. Nagamatsu Laboratory, to conduct demonstration in atmospheric flight at the speed corresponding to Mach number 7 at an altitude of 30km. In the experimental procedure the hypersonic shock tunnel T3 was used, installed in that laboratory. This device simulates the flow over a model is fixed in the test section and can also simulate different atmospheric conditions. The scramjet technology offers substantial advantages to improve aerospace vehicle performance which flies at a hypersonic speed through the Earth's atmosphere by reducing fuel consumption on board. Basically, the scramjet is an aspirated aircraft engine fully integrated that uses oblique/conic shock waves generated during hypersonic flight, to promote the deceleration and compression of atmospheric air in scramjet inlet. During the hypersonic flight, the vehicle VHA 14-X will suffer atmospheric influences, promoting changes in the vehicle's angles of attack (angle that the mean line of vehicle makes with respect to the direction of the flow). Based on this information, a study is conducted to analyze the influences of changes in the vehicle's angle of attack during the atmospheric flight. Analytical theoretical analysis, simulation computational fluid dynamics and experimental investigation are the methodologies used to design a technological demonstrator prior to the flight in the atmosphere. This paper considers analysis of the thermodynamic properties (pressure, temperature, density, sound velocity) in lower surface of the VHA 14-X B. Also, it considers air as an ideal gas and chemical equilibrium, with and without boundary layer, considering changes in the vehicle's angle of attack (positive and negative in relation to the flow) and bi-dimensional expansion wave theory at the expansion section (Theory of Prandtl-Meyer).

Keywords: angle of attack, experimental hypersonic, hypersonic airbreathing propulsion, Scramjet

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Authors: Nelson F. F. Ebecken, Gilberto C. Pereira, Lucio P. de Andrade

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Bays, estuaries and coastal ecosystems are some of the most used and threatened natural systems globally. Its deterioration is due to intense and increasing human activities. This paper aims to monitor the socio-ecological in Brazil, model and simulate it through a multilayer network representing a DPSIR structure (Drivers, Pressures, States-Impacts-Responses) considering the concept of Management based on Ecosystems to support decision-making under the National/State/Municipal Coastal Management policy. This approach considers several interferences and can represent a significant advance in several scientific aspects. The main objective of this paper is the coupling of three different types of complex networks, the first being an ecological network, the second a social network, and the third a network of economic activities, in order to model the marine ecosystem. Multilayer networks comprise two or more "layers", which may represent different types of interactions, different communities, different points in time, and so on. The dependency between layers results from processes that affect the various layers. For example, the dispersion of individuals between two patches affects the network structure of both samples. A multilayer network consists of (i) a set of physical nodes representing entities (e.g., species, people, companies); (ii) a set of layers, which may include multiple layering aspects (e.g., time dependency and multiple types of relationships); (iii) a set of state nodes, each of which corresponds to the manifestation of a given physical node in a layer-specific; and (iv) a set of edges (weighted or not) to connect the state nodes among themselves. The edge set includes the intralayer edges familiar and interlayer ones, which connect state nodes between layers. The applied methodology in an existent case uses the Flow cytometry process and the modeling of ecological relationships (trophic and non-trophic) following fuzzy theory concepts and graph visualization. The identification of subnetworks in the fuzzy graphs is carried out using a specific computational method. This methodology allows considering the influence of different factors and helps their contributions to the decision-making process.

Keywords: marine ecosystems, complex systems, multilayer network, ecosystems management

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Authors: Rossana Taravella, Gilberto M. Cellura, Giuseppe Cirrincione, Salvatore Asciutto, Marco Caruso, Massimo Benedetto, Renato Ciofalo, Giuliana Pace, Salvatore Novo

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Objectives: This retrospective analysis sought to evaluate 1-month outcomes and therapy effectiveness of a population of patients treated with MitraClip therapy. We describe in this article the preliminary results of primary effectiveness endpoint. Background: Percutaneous Mitral Repair is being developed to treat severe mitral regurgitation (MR), with increasing real-world cases of functional MR (FMR). In the EVEREST (Endovascular Valve Edge-to-Edge Repair Study)II trial, the percutaneous device showed superior safety but less reduction in MR at 1year. 4-year outcomes from EVEREST II trial showed no difference in the prevalence of moderate-severe and severe MR or mortality at 4years between surgical mitral repair and percutaneous approach. Methods: We analysed retrospectively collected data from one center experience in Italy enrolled from January 2011 to December 2016. The study included 62 patients [mean age 74±11years, 43 men (69%)] with MR of at least grade3+. Most of the patients had functional MR, were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class III or IV, with a large portion (78%) of mild-to-moderate Tricuspid Regurgitation (TR). One or more clips were implanted in 67 procedures (62 patients). Results and Conclusions: Severity of MR was reduced in all successfully treated patients,54(90%) were discharged with MR≤2+ (primary effectiveness endpoint). Clinical 1-month follow-up data showed an improvement in NYHA functional class (42 patients (70%) in NYHA class I-II). 60 of 62 (97 %) successfully treated patients were free from death and mitral valve surgery at 1-month follow-up. MitraClip therapy reduces functional MR with acute MR reduction to <2+ in the great majority of patients, with a large freedom from death, surgery or recurrent MR in a great portion of patients.

Keywords: MitraClip, mitral regurgitation, heart valves, catheter-based therapy

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Authors: Matteo Gentilucci, Marco Materazzi, Gilberto Pambianchi

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Climate change is an increasingly central issue in the world, because it affects many of human activities. In this context regional studies are of great importance because they sometimes differ from the general trend. This research focuses on a small area of central Italy which overlooks the Adriatic Sea, the province of Macerata. The aim is to analyze space-based climate changes, for precipitation and temperatures, in the last 3 climatological standard normals (1961-1990; 1971-2000; 1981-2010) through GIS software. The data collected from 30 weather stations for temperature and 61 rain gauges for precipitation were subject to quality controls: validation and homogenization. These data were fundamental for the spatialization of the variables (temperature and precipitation) through geostatistical techniques. To assess the best geostatistical technique for interpolation, the results of cross correlation were used. The co-kriging method with altitude as independent variable produced the best cross validation results for all time periods, among the methods analysed, with 'root mean square error standardized' close to 1, 'mean standardized error' close to 0, 'average standard error' and 'root mean square error' with similar values. The maps resulting from the analysis were compared by subtraction between rasters, producing 3 maps of annual variation and three other maps for each month of the year (1961/1990-1971/2000; 1971/2000-1981/2010; 1961/1990-1981/2010). The results show an increase in average annual temperature of about 0.1°C between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 and 0.6 °C between 1961-1990 and 1981-2010. Instead annual precipitation shows an opposite trend, with an average difference from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 of about 35 mm and from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 of about 60 mm. Furthermore, the differences in the areas have been highlighted with area graphs and summarized in several tables as descriptive analysis. In fact for temperature between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 the most areally represented frequency is 0.08°C (77.04 Km² on a total of about 2800 km²) with a kurtosis of 3.95 and a skewness of 2.19. Instead, the differences for temperatures from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 show a most areally represented frequency of 0.83 °C, with -0.45 as kurtosis and 0.92 as skewness (36.9 km²). Therefore it can be said that distribution is more pointed for 1961/1990-1971/2000 and smoother but more intense in the growth for 1961/1990-1981/2010. In contrast, precipitation shows a very similar shape of distribution, although with different intensities, for both variations periods (first period 1961/1990-1971/2000 and second one 1961/1990-1981/2010) with similar values of kurtosis (1st = 1.93; 2nd = 1.34), skewness (1st = 1.81; 2nd = 1.62 for the second) and area of the most represented frequency (1st = 60.72 km²; 2nd = 52.80 km²). In conclusion, this methodology of analysis allows the assessment of small scale climate change for each month of the year and could be further investigated in relation to regional atmospheric dynamics.

Keywords: climate change, GIS, interpolation, co-kriging

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Authors: Rodrigo Calili, Anna Carolina Sermarini, João Henrique Azevedo, Vanessa Cardoso de Albuquerque, Felipe Gonçalves, Gilberto Jannuzzi

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The diffusion of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) has caused structural changes in the relationship between consumers and electrical systems. The Photovoltaic Distributed Generation (PVDG), in particular, is an essential strategy for achieving the 2030 Agenda goals, especially SDG 7 and SDG 13. However, it is observed that most projects involving this technology in Brazil are restricted to the wealthiest classes of society, not yet reaching the low-income population, aligned with theories of energy justice. Considering the research for energy equality, one of the policies adopted by governments is the social electricity tariff (SET), which provides discounts on energy tariffs/bills. However, just granting this benefit may not be effective, and it is possible to merge it with DER technologies, such as the PVDG. Thus, this work aims to evaluate the economic viability of the policy to replace the social electricity tariff (the current policy aimed at the low-income population in Brazil) by PVDG projects. To this end, a proprietary methodology was developed that included: mapping the stakeholders, identifying critical variables, simulating policy options, and carrying out an analysis in the Brazilian context. The simulation answered two key questions: in which municipalities low-income consumers would have lower bills with PVDG compared to SET; which consumers in a given city would have increased subsidies, which are now provided for solar energy in Brazil and for the social tariff. An economic model was created for verifying the feasibility of the proposed policy in each municipality in the country, considering geographic issues (tariff of a particular distribution utility, radiation from a specific location, etc.). To validate these results, four sensitivity analyzes were performed: variation of the simultaneity factor between generation and consumption, variation of the tariff readjustment rate, zeroing CAPEX, and exemption from state tax. The behind-the-meter modality of generation proved to be more promising than the construction of a shared plant. However, although the behind-the-meter modality presents better results than the shared plant, there is a greater complexity in adopting this modality due to issues related to the infrastructure of the most vulnerable communities (e.g., precarious electrical networks, need to reinforce roofs). Considering the shared power plant modality, many opportunities are still envisaged since the risk of investing in such a policy can be mitigated. Furthermore, this modality can be an alternative due to the mitigation of the risk of default, as it allows greater control of users and facilitates the process of operation and maintenance. Finally, it was also found, that in some regions of Brazil, the continuity of the SET presents more economic benefits than its replacement by PVDG. However, the proposed policy offers many opportunities. For future works, the model may include other parameters, such as cost with low-income populations’ engagement, and business risk. In addition, other renewable sources of distributed generation can be studied for this purpose.

Keywords: low income, subsidy policy, distributed energy resources, energy justice

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