Search results for: FLUKA Monte Carlo Method

Authors: Chen Bo, Wen Zengping

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Based on the results of previous studies, we focus on the research of real ground motion selection and scaling method for structural performance-based seismic evaluation using nonlinear dynamic analysis. The input of earthquake ground motion should be determined appropriately to make them compatible with the site-specific hazard level considered. Thus, an optimized selection and scaling method are established including the use of not only Monte Carlo simulation method to create the stochastic simulation spectrum considering the multivariate lognormal distribution of target spectrum, but also a spectral shape parameter. Its applications in structural fragility analysis are demonstrated through case studies. Compared to the previous scheme with no consideration of the uncertainty of target spectrum, the method shown here can make sure that the selected records are in good agreement with the median value, standard deviation and spectral correction of the target spectrum, and greatly reveal the uncertainty feature of site-specific hazard level. Meanwhile, it can help improve computational efficiency and matching accuracy. Given the important infection of target spectrum’s uncertainty on structural seismic fragility analysis, this work can provide the reasonable and reliable basis for structural seismic evaluation under scenario earthquake environment.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling method, seismic fragility analysis, spectral shape

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Authors: Khaled Soliman, Abdullah Alrushoud, Abdulrahman Alkhalifah, Raed Albathi, Salman Altymiat

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Radiation dose received by patients undergoing Computed Tomography (CT) examination of the cervical spine was evaluated using Gafchromic XR-QA2 films and CT-EXPO software (ver. 2.3), in order to document our clinical dose values and to compare our results with other benchmarks reported in the current literature. Radiochromic films were recently used as practical dosimetry tool that provides dose profile information not available using the standard ionisation chamber routinely used in CT dosimetry. We have developed an in-house program to use the films in order to calculate the Entrance Dose Length Product (EDLP) in (mGy.cm) and to relate the EDLP to various organ doses calculated using the CT-EXPO software. We also calculated conversion factor in (mSv/mGy.cm) relating the EDLP to the effective dose (ED) from the examination using CT-EXPO software. Variability among different types of CT scanners and dose modulation methods are reported from at least three major CT brands available at our medical institution. Our work describes the dosimetry method and results are reported. The method can be used as in-vivo dosimetry method. But this work only reports results obtained from adult female anthropomorphic Phantom studies.

Keywords: CT dosimetry, gafchromic films, XR-QA2, CT-Expo software

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Authors: G. Battistoni, F. Collamati, E. De Lucia, R. Faccini, C. Mancini-Terracciano, M. Marafini, I. Mattei, S. Muraro, V. Patera, A. Sarti, A. Sciubba, E. Solfaroli Camillocci, M. Toppi, G. Traini, S. M. Valle, C. Voena

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Accelerated charged particles, mainly protons and carbon ions, are presently used in Particle Therapy (PT) to treat solid tumors. The precision of PT exploiting the charged particle high localized dose deposition in tissues and biological effectiveness in killing cancer cells demands for an online dose monitoring technique, crucial to improve the quality assurance of treatments: possible patient mis-positionings and biological changes with respect to the CT scan could negatively affect the therapy outcome. In PT the beam range confined in the irradiated target can be monitored thanks to the secondary radiation produced by the interaction of the projectiles with the patient tissue. The Dose Profiler (DP) is a novel device designed to track charged secondary particles and reconstruct their longitudinal emission distribution, correlated to the Bragg peak position. The feasibility of this approach has been demonstrated by dedicated experimental measurements. The DP has been developed in the framework of the INSIDE project, MIUR, INFN and Centro Fermi, Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche 'E. Fermi', Roma, Italy and will be tested at the Proton Therapy center of Trento (Italy) within the end of 2017. The DP combines a tracker, made of six layers of two-view scintillating fibers with square cross section (0.5 x 0.5 mm2) with two layers of two-view scintillating bars (section 12.0 x 0.6 mm2). The electronic readout is performed by silicon photomultipliers. The sensitive area of the tracking planes is 20 x 20 cm2. To optimize the detector layout, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation based on the FLUKA code has been developed. The complete DP geometry and the track reconstruction code have been fully implemented in the MC. In this contribution, the DP hardware will be described. The expected detector performance computed using a dedicated simulation of a 220 MeV/u carbon ion beam impinging on a PMMA target will be presented, and the result will be discussed in the standard clinical application framework. A possible procedure for real-time beam range monitoring is proposed, following the expectations in actual clinical operation.

Keywords: online range monitoring, particle therapy, quality assurance, tracking detector

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Authors: Manish Chand, Subhrojit Bagchi, R. Kumar

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A new dry tube (DT) has been installed in the tank of KAMINI research reactor, Kalpakkam India. This tube will be used for neutron activation analysis of small to large samples and testing of neutron detectors. DT tube is 375 cm height and 7.5 cm in diameter, located 35 cm away from the core centre. The experimental thermal flux at various axial positions inside the tube has been measured by irradiating the flux monitor (¹⁹⁷Au) at 20kW reactor power. The measured activity of ¹⁹⁸Au and the thermal cross section of ¹⁹⁷Au (n,γ) ¹⁹⁸Au reaction were used for experimental thermal flux measurement. The flux inside the tube varies from 10⁹ to 10¹⁰ and maximum flux was (1.02 ± 0.023) x10¹⁰ n cm⁻²s⁻¹ at 36 cm from the bottom of the tube. The Au and Zr foils without and with cadmium cover of 1-mm thickness were irradiated at the maximum flux position in the DT to find out the irradiation specific input parameters like sub-cadmium to epithermal neutron flux ratio (f) and the epithermal neutron flux shape factor (α). The f value was 143 ± 5, indicates about 99.3% thermal neutron component and α value was -0.2886 ± 0.0125, indicates hard epithermal neutron spectrum due to insufficient moderation. The measured flux profile has been validated using theoretical model of KAMINI reactor through Monte Carlo N-Particle Code (MCNP). In MCNP, the complex geometry of the entire reactor is modelled in 3D, ensuring minimum approximations for all the components. Continuous energy cross-section data from ENDF-B/VII.1 as well as S (α, β) thermal neutron scattering functions are considered. The neutron flux has been estimated at the corresponding axial locations of the DT using mesh tally. The thermal flux obtained from the experiment shows good agreement with the theoretically predicted values by MCNP, it was within ± 10%. It can be concluded that this MCNP model can be utilized for calculating other important parameters like neutron spectra, dose rate, etc. and multi elemental analysis can be carried out by irradiating the sample at maximum flux position using measured f and α parameters by k₀-NAA standardization.

Keywords: neutron flux, neutron activation analysis, neutron flux shape factor, MCNP, Monte Carlo N-Particle Code

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Authors: Hassan Parandvar, Mehrdad Farid

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In this paper, a finite element modeling is presented for large amplitude vibration of functionally graded material (FGM) plates subjected to combined random pressure and thermal load. The material properties of the plates are assumed to vary continuously in the thickness direction by a simple power law distribution in terms of the volume fractions of the constituents. The material properties depend on the temperature whose distribution along the thickness can be expressed explicitly. The von Karman large deflection strain displacement and extended Hamilton's principle are used to obtain the governing system of equations of motion in structural node degrees of freedom (DOF) using finite element method. Three-node triangular Mindlin plate element with shear correction factor is used. The nonlinear equations of motion in structural degrees of freedom are reduced by using modal reduction method. The reduced equations of motion are solved numerically by 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme. In this study, the random pressure is generated using Monte Carlo method. The modeling is verified and the nonlinear dynamic response of FGM plates is studied for various values of volume fraction and sound pressure level under different thermal loads. Snap-through type behavior of FGM plates is studied too.

Keywords: nonlinear vibration, finite element method, functionally graded material (FGM) plates, snap-through, random vibration, thermal effect

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM), ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM), model updating method, probability-based damage detection (PBDD), uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Kernou Nassim

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The current study presents a vulnerability and a reliability-mechanical approach that focuses on evaluating the seismic performance of reinforced concrete structures to determine the probability of failure. In this case, the performance function reflecting the non-linear behavior of the structure is modeled by a response surface to establish an analytical relationship between the random variables (strength of concrete and yield strength of steel) and mechanical responses of the structure (inter-floor displacement) obtained by the pushover results of finite element simulations. The push over-analysis is executed by software SAP2000. The results acquired prove that properly designed frames will perform well under seismic loads. It is a comparative study of the behavior of the existing structure before and after reinforcement using the pushover method. The coupling indirect mechanical reliability by response surface avoids prohibitive calculation times. Finally, the results of the proposed approach are compared with Monte Carlo Simulation. The comparative study shows that the structure is more reliable after the introduction of new shear walls.

Keywords: finite element method, surface response, reliability, reliability mechanical coupling, vulnerability

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Authors: S. Sangaroon, W. Ratanatongchai, S. Khaweerat, R. Picha, J. Channuie

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The prompt gamma-ray neutron activation analysis system (PGNAA) has been constructed and installed at a 6 inch diameter neutron beam port of the Thai Research Reactor-1/ Modification 1 (TRR-1/M1) since 1989. It was designed for the reactor operating power at 1.2 MW. The purpose of the system is for an elemental and isotopic analytical. In 2016, the PGNAA facility will be developed to reduce the leakage and background of neutrons and gamma radiation at the sample and detector position. In this work, the designed condition of these facilities is carried out based on the Monte Carlo method using MCNP5 computer code. The conditions with different modification materials, thicknesses and structure of the PGNAA facility, including gamma collimator and radiation shields of the detector, are simulated, and then the optimal structure parameters with a significantly improved performance of the facility are obtained.

Keywords: MCNP simulation, PGNAA, Thai research reactor (TRR-1/M1), radiation shielding

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Authors: R. J. Chang

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A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise is analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: cyclostationary, duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal, white noise

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Authors: A. Anastasopoulou, A. Kolios, T. Somorin, A. Sowale, Y. Jiang, B. Fidalgo, A. Parker, L. Williams, M. Collins, E. J. McAdam, S. Tyrrel

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Developing countries are nowadays confronted with great challenges related to domestic sanitation services in view of the imminent water scarcity. Contemporary sanitation technologies established in these countries are likely to pose health risks unless waste management standards are followed properly. This paper provides a solution to sustainable sanitation with the development of an innovative toilet system, called Nano Membrane Toilet (NMT), which has been developed by Cranfield University and sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The particular technology converts human faeces into energy through gasification and provides treated wastewater from urine through membrane filtration. In order to evaluate the environmental profile of the NMT system, a deterministic life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted in SimaPro software employing the Ecoinvent v3.3 database. The particular study has determined the most contributory factors to the environmental footprint of the NMT system. However, as sensitivity analysis has identified certain critical operating parameters for the robustness of the LCA results, adopting a stochastic approach to the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) will comprehensively capture the input data uncertainty and enhance the credibility of the LCA outcome. For that purpose, Monte Carlo simulations, in combination with an artificial neural network (ANN) model, have been conducted for the input parameters of raw material, produced electricity, NO_X emissions, amount of ash and transportation of fertilizer. The given analysis has provided the distribution and the confidence intervals of the selected impact categories and, in turn, more credible conclusions are drawn on the respective LCIA (Life Cycle Impact Assessment) profile of NMT system. Last but not least, the specific study will also yield essential insights into the methodological framework that can be adopted in the environmental impact assessment of other complex engineering systems subject to a high level of input data uncertainty.

Keywords: sanitation systems, nano-membrane toilet, lca, stochastic uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, artificial neural network

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Authors: Siu-Siu Guo, Qingxuan Shi

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In this paper, single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems to white noise and colored noise excitations are investigated. By expressing colored noise excitation as a second-order filtered white noise process and introducing colored noise as an additional state variable, the equation of motion for SDOF system under colored noise is then transferred artificially to multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) system under white noise excitations. As a consequence, corresponding Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation governing the joint probabilistic density function (PDF) of state variables increases to 4-dimension (4-D). Solution procedure and computer programme become much more sophisticated. The exponential-polynomial closure (EPC) method, widely applied for cases of SDOF systems under white noise excitations, is developed and improved for cases of systems under colored noise excitations and for solving the complex 4-D FPK equation. On the other hand, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is performed to test the approximate EPC solutions. Two examples associated with Gaussian and non-Gaussian colored noise excitations are considered. Corresponding band-limited power spectral densities (PSDs) for colored noise excitations are separately given. Numerical studies show that the developed EPC method provides relatively accurate estimates of the stationary probabilistic solutions. Moreover, statistical parameter of mean-up crossing rate (MCR) is taken into account, which is important for reliability and failure analysis.

Keywords: filtered noise, narrow-banded noise, nonlinear dynamic, random vibration

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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Statistical inference of normal mean with known coefficient of variation has been investigated recently. This phenomenon occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments when the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. In this paper, we constructed new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. We also derived analytic expressions for the coverage probability of each confidence interval. To confirm our theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their coverage probabilities.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: W. Benstaali, A. Belasri

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In this work we study a planar lamp filled with neon-xenon gas. We use a one-dimensional particle in a cell with Monte Carlo simulation (PIC-MCC) to investigate the effect xenon concentration on the energy deposited on excitation, ionization and ions. A Xe-Ne discharge is studied for a gas pressure of 400 torr. The results show an efficient Xe20-Ne mixture with an applied voltage of 1.2KV; the xenon excitation energy represents 65% form total energy dissipated in the discharge. We have also studied electrical properties and the energy balance a discharge for Xe50-Ne which needs a voltage of 2kv; the xenon energy is than more important.

Keywords: dielectric barrier discharge, efficiency, excitation, lamps

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Authors: Gubhinder Kundhi, Paul Rilstone

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It is well established that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators in the presence of weak instruments can be poorly behaved, in particular, be quite biased in finite samples. Finite sample approximations to the distributions of these estimators are obtained using Edgeworth and Saddlepoint expansions. Departures from normality of the distributions of these estimators are analyzed using higher order analytical corrections in these expansions. In a Monte-Carlo experiment, the performance of these expansions is compared to the first order approximation and other methods commonly used in finite samples such as the bootstrap.

Keywords: bootstrap, Instrumental Variable, Edgeworth expansions, Saddlepoint expansions

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Authors: Yawei Liang

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Threat from cruise missiles is among the most dangerous considerations to a warship in the modern era: anti-ship cruise missiles are fast, accurate, and extremely destructive. In this paper, the goal was to use an object-orientated environment to program a simulation to model a scenario in which a lone frigate is attacked by a wave of missiles fired at given intervals. The parameters of the simulation are modified to examine the relationships between different variables in the situation, and an analysis is performed on various aspects of the defending ship’s equipment. Finally, the results are presented, along with a brief discussion.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, naval resource management, weapon-target allocation/assignment

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Authors: Mahdy ‎Esmailian, Mahdi ‎Doostparast, Ahmad ‎Parsian

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‎In this article‎, ‎sequential order statistics (SOS) censoring type II samples coming from the generalized Pareto distribution are considered‎. ‎Maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the unknown parameters are derived on the basis of the available multiple SOS data‎. ‎Necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness of the derived ML estimates are given‎. Due to complexity in the proposed likelihood function‎, ‎a useful re-parametrization is suggested‎. ‎For illustrative purposes‎, ‎a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted and an illustrative example is analysed‎.

Keywords: bayesian estimation‎, generalized pareto distribution‎, ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎, sequential order statistics

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Authors: M. Sharifi, M. Mirzaii, F. Bolourinovin, H. Yousefnia, M. Akbari, K. Yousefi-Mojir

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A multilayer passive shield composed of low-activity lead (Pb), copper (Cu), tin (Sn) and iron (Fe) was designed and manufactured for a coaxial HPGe detector placed at a surface laboratory for reducing background radiation and radiation dose to the personnel. The performance of the shield was evaluated and efficiency curves of the detector were plotted by using of the various standard sources in different distances. Monte Carlo simulations and a set of TLD chips were used for dose estimation in two distances of 20 and 40 cm. The results show that the shield reduced background spectrum and the personnel dose more than 95%.

Keywords: HPGe shield, background count, personnel dose, efficiency curve

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Authors: Yufei Peng, Zhen Qin, Jianbe Li, Jidong Long

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The thermal cathode is widely used in accelerators, FELs and kinds of vacuum electronics. However, emission nonuniformity exists due to surface profile, material distribution, temperature variation, crystal orientation, etc., which will cause intrinsic emittance growth, brightness decline, envelope size augment, device performance deterioration or even failure. To understand how emittance is manipulated by emission nonuniformity, an intrinsic emittance model consisting of contributions from macro and micro surface nonuniformity is developed analytically based on general thermal emission model at temperature limited regime according to a real 3mm cathode. The model shows relative emittance increased about 50% due to temperature variation, and less than 5% from several kinds of micro surface nonuniformity which is much smaller than other research. Otherwise, we also calculated emittance growth combining with Monte Carlo method and PIC simulation, experiments of emission uniformity and emittance measurement are going to be carried out separately.

Keywords: thermal cathode, electron emission fluctuation, intrinsic emittance, surface nonuniformity, cathode lifetime

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Authors: Alexandru George Vaduva, Adriana Vlad, Bogdan Badea

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In this research, we conduct a Monte Carlo analysis on a two-dimensional χ2 test, which is used to determine the minimum distance required for independent sampling in the context of chaotic signals. We investigate the impact of transforming initial data sets from any probability distribution to new signals with a uniform distribution using the Spearman rank correlation on the χ2 test. This transformation removes the randomness of the data pairs, and as a result, the observed distribution of χ2 test values differs from the expected distribution. We propose a solution to this problem and evaluate it using another chaotic signal.

Keywords: chaotic signals, logistic map, Pearson’s test, Chi Square test, bivariate distribution, statistical independence

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Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam

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In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.

Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests

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Authors: Komeil Valipourian

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Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method (FDM)

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Authors: Najrullah Khan, Athar Ali Khan

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The Topp-Leone distribution was introduced by Topp- Leone in 1955. In this paper, an attempt has been made to fit Topp-Leone Generalized exponential (TPGE) distribution. A real survival data set is used for illustrations. Implementation is done using R and JAGS and appropriate illustrations are made. R and JAGS codes have been provided to implement censoring mechanism using both optimization and simulation tools. The main aim of this paper is to describe and illustrate the Bayesian modelling approach to the analysis of survival data. Emphasis is placed on the modeling of data and the interpretation of the results. Crucial to this is an understanding of the nature of the incomplete or 'censored' data encountered. Analytic approximation and simulation tools are covered here, but most of the emphasis is on Markov chain based Monte Carlo method including independent Metropolis algorithm, which is currently the most popular technique. For analytic approximation, among various optimization algorithms and trust region method is found to be the best. In this paper, TPGE model is also used to analyze the lifetime data in Bayesian paradigm. Results are evaluated from the above mentioned real survival data set. The analytic approximation and simulation methods are implemented using some software packages. It is clear from our findings that simulation tools provide better results as compared to those obtained by asymptotic approximation.

Keywords: Bayesian Inference, JAGS, Laplace Approximation, LaplacesDemon, posterior, R Software, simulation

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Authors: Xiang Jia, Zhijun Cheng

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The residual lifetime of a product is the operation time between the current time and the time point when the failure happens. The residual lifetime estimation is rather important in reliability analysis. To predict the residual lifetime, it is necessary to assume or verify a particular distribution that the lifetime of the product follows. And the two-parameter Weibull distribution is frequently adopted to describe the lifetime in reliability engineering. Due to the time constraint and cost reduction, a life testing experiment is usually terminated before all the units have failed. Then the censored data is usually collected. In addition, other information could also be obtained for reliability analysis. The expert judgements are considered as it is common that the experts could present some useful information concerning the reliability. Therefore, the residual lifetime is estimated for Weibull distribution by fusing the censored data and expert judgements in this paper. First, the closed-forms concerning the point estimate and confidence interval for the residual lifetime under the Weibull distribution are both presented. Next, the expert judgements are regarded as the prior information and how to determine the prior distribution of Weibull parameters is developed. For completeness, the cases that there is only one, and there are more than two expert judgements are both focused on. Further, the posterior distribution of Weibull parameters is derived. Considering that it is difficult to derive the posterior distribution of residual lifetime, a sample-based method is proposed to generate the posterior samples of Weibull parameters based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. And these samples are used to obtain the Bayes estimation and credible interval for the residual lifetime. Finally, an illustrative example is discussed to show the application. It demonstrates that the proposed method is rather simple, satisfactory, and robust.

Keywords: expert judgements, information fusion, residual lifetime, Weibull distribution

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Authors: L. Yettou

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In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by ⁶³Cu(n,xp) and ⁶⁵Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.

Keywords: Preequilibrium models , level density, level density a-parameter., Empire code, Talys code.

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Authors: Patarawan Sangnawakij, Sa-Aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we proposed two new confidence intervals for the difference of coefficients of variation, CIw and CIs, in two independent gamma distributions. These proposed confidence intervals using the close form method of variance estimation which was presented by Donner and Zou (2010) based on concept of Wald and Score confidence interval, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation study is used to evaluate the performance, coverage probability and expected length, of these confidence intervals. The results indicate that values of coverage probabilities of the new confidence interval based on Wald and Score are satisfied the nominal coverage and close to nominal level 0.95 in various situations, particularly, the former proposed confidence interval is better when sample sizes are small. Moreover, the expected lengths of the proposed confidence intervals are nearly difference when sample sizes are moderate to large. Therefore, in this study, the confidence interval for the difference of coefficients of variation which based on Wald is preferable than the other one confidence interval.

Keywords: confidence interval, score’s interval, wald’s interval, coefficient of variation, gamma distribution, simulation study

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Authors: Rawinun Praserttaweelap, Somyot Kiatwanidvilai

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Obstacle avoidance is the one key for the robot system in unknown environment. The robots should be able to know their position and safety region. This research starts on the path planning which are SLAM and AMCL in ROS system. In addition, the best parameters of the obstacle avoidance function are required. In situation on Hard Disk Drive Manufacturing, the distance between robots and obstacles are very serious due to the manufacturing constraint. The simulations are accomplished by the SLAM and AMCL with adaptive velocity and safety region calculation.

Keywords: obstacle avoidance, OA, Simultaneous Localization and Mapping, SLAM, Adaptive Monte Carlo Localization, AMCL, KLD sampling, KLD

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Authors: Kais Manai

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The main part of this work focuses on the study of pion/muon separation at low energy using a nuclear Emulsion Cloud Chamber (ECC) made of lead and nuclear emulsion films. The work consists of two parts: particle reconstruction algorithm and a Neural Network that assigns to each reconstructed particle the probability to be a muon or a pion. The pion/muon separation algorithm has been optimized by using a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of the ECC and tested on real data. The algorithm allows to achieve a 60% muon identification efficiency with a pion misidentification smaller than 3%.

Keywords: nuclear emulsion, particle identification, tracking, neural network

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Authors: Rajan Goyal, S. Lamba, S. Annapoorni

Abstract:

The indirect exchange coupled system consists of two ferromagnetic layers separated by non-magnetic spacer layer. The type of exchange coupling may be either ferro or anti-ferro depending on the thickness of the spacer layer. In the present work, the strength of exchange coupling in FePt/Al₂O₃/Fe₃Pt has been investigated by varying the thickness of the spacer layer Al₂O₃. The FePt/Al₂O₃/Fe₃Pt trilayer structure is fabricated on Si <100> single crystal substrate using sputtering technique. The thickness of FePt and Fe₃Pt is fixed at 60 nm and 2 nm respectively. The thickness of spacer layer Al₂O₃ was varied from 0 to 16 nm. The normalized hysteresis loops recorded at room temperature both in the in-plane and out of plane configuration reveals that the orientation of easy axis lies along the plane of the film. It is observed that the hysteresis loop for ts=0 nm does not exhibit any knee around H=0 indicating that the hard FePt layer and soft Fe₃Pt layer are strongly exchange coupled. However, the insertion of Al₂O₃ spacer layer of thickness ts = 0.7 nm results in appearance of a minor knee around H=0 suggesting the weakening of exchange coupling between FePt and Fe₃Pt. The disappearance of knee in hysteresis loop with further increase in thickness of the spacer layer up to 8 nm predicts the co-existence of ferromagnetic (FM) and antiferromagnetic (AFM) exchange interaction between FePt and Fe₃Pt. In addition to this, the out of plane hysteresis loop also shows an asymmetry around H=0. The exchange field Hex = (Hc↑-HC↓)/2, where Hc↑ and Hc↓ are the coercivity estimated from lower and upper branch of hysteresis loop, increases from ~ 150 Oe to ~ 700 Oe respectively. This behavior may be attributed to the uncompensated moments in the hard FePt layer and soft Fe₃Pt layer at the interface. A better insight into the variation in indirect exchange coupling has been investigated using recoil curves. It is observed that the almost closed recoil curves are obtained for ts= 0 nm up to a reverse field of ~ 5 kOe. On the other hand, the appearance of appreciable open recoil curves at lower reverse field ~ 4 kOe for ts = 0.7 nm indicates that uncoupled soft phase undergoes irreversible magnetization reversal at lower reverse field suggesting the weakening of exchange coupling. The openness of recoil curves decreases with increase in thickness of the spacer layer up to 8 nm. This behavior may be attributed to the competition between FM and AFM exchange interactions. The FM exchange coupling between FePt and Fe₃Pt due to porous nature of Al₂O₃ decreases much slower than the weak AFM coupling due to interaction between Fe ions of FePt and Fe₃Pt via O ions of Al₂O₃. The hysteresis loop has been simulated using Monte Carlo based on Metropolis algorithm to investigate the variation in strength of exchange coupling in FePt/Al₂O₃/Fe₃Pt trilayer system.

Keywords: indirect exchange coupling, MH loop, Monte Carlo simulation, recoil curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

Abstract:

The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 172