Search results for: combustion modelling

Authors: Feyi Olorunshola

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Over the last few years, the senior travel market has been noted for its potential in the wider tourism industry. The tourism sector includes the hotel and hospitality, travel, transportation, and several other subdivisions to make it economically viable. In particular, the hotel attracts a substantial part of the expenditure in tourism activities as when people plan to travel, suitable accommodation for relaxation, dining, entertainment and so on is paramount to their decision-making. The global retail value of the hotel as of 2018 was significant for tourism. But, despite indications of the hotel to the tourism industry at large, very few empirical studies are available to establish how this sector can leverage on the senior demographic to achieve competitive advantage. Predominantly, studies on the mature market have focused on destination tourism, with a limited investigation on the hotel which makes a significant contribution to tourism. Also, several scholarly studies have demonstrated the importance of the senior travel market to the hotel, yet there is very little empirical research in the field which has explored the driving factors that will become the accepted new normal for this niche segment post-pandemic. Giving that the hotel already operates in a highly saturated business environment, and on top of this pre-existing challenge, the ongoing global health outbreak has further put the sector in a vulnerable position. Therefore, the hotel especially the full-service luxury category must evolve rapidly for it to survive in the current business environment. The hotel can no longer rely on corporate travelers to generate higher revenue since the unprecedented wake of the pandemic in 2020 many organizations have invented a different approach of conducting their businesses online, therefore, the hotel needs to anticipate a significant drop in business travellers. However, the rooms and the rest of the facilities must be occupied to keep their business operating. The way forward for the hotel lies in the leisure sector, but the question now is to focus on the potential demographics of travelers, in this case, the seniors who have been repeatedly recognized as the lucrative market because of increase discretionary income, availability of time and the global population trends. To achieve the study objectives, a mixed-method approach will be utilized drawing on both qualitative (netnography) and quantitative (survey) methods, cognitive and decision-making theories (means-end chain) and competitive theories to identify the salient drivers explaining senior hotel choice and its influence on their decision-making. The target population are repeated seniors’ age 65 years and over who are UK resident, and from the top tourist market to the UK (USA, Germany, and France). Structural equation modelling will be employed to analyze the datasets. The theoretical implication is the development of new concepts using a robust research design, and as well as advancing existing framework to hotel study. Practically, it will provide the hotel management with the latest information to design a competitive marketing strategy and activities to target the mature market post-pandemic and over a long period.

Keywords: competitive advantage, covid-19, full-service hotel, five-star, luxury hotels

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Authors: U. S. Putro, L. Mayangsari, M. Siallagan, N. P. Tjahyani

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National Collective Management Institute (LKMN) in Indonesia stated that legal music products were about 77.552.008 unit while illegal music products were about 22.0688.225 unit in 1996 and this number keeps getting worse every year. Consequently, Indonesia named as one of the countries with high piracy levels in 2005. This study models people decision toward unlawful behavior, music content piracy in particular, using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). The classification of actors in the model constructed in this study are legal consumer, illegal consumer, and neutral consumer. The decision toward piracy among the actors is a manifestation of the social norm which attributes are social pressure, peer pressure, social approval, and perceived prevalence of piracy. The influencing attributes fluctuate depending on the majority of surrounding behavior called social network. There are two main interventions undertaken in the model, campaign and peer influence, which leads to scenarios in the simulation: positively-framed descriptive norm message, negatively-framed descriptive norm message, positively-framed injunctive norm with benefits message, and negatively-framed injunctive norm with costs message. Using NetLogo, the model is simulated in 30 runs with 10.000 iteration for each run. The initial number of agent was set 100 proportion of 95:5 for illegal consumption. The assumption of proportion is based on the data stated that 95% sales of music industry are pirated. The finding of this study is that negatively-framed descriptive norm message has a worse reversed effect toward music piracy. The study discovers that selecting the context-based campaign is the key process to reduce the level of intention toward music piracy as unlawful behavior by increasing the compliance awareness. The context of Indonesia reveals that that majority of people has actively engaged in music piracy as unlawful behavior, so that people think that this illegal act is common behavior. Therefore, providing the information about how widespread and big this problem is could make people do the illegal consumption behavior instead. The positively-framed descriptive norm message scenario works best to reduce music piracy numbers as it focuses on supporting positive behavior and subject to the right perception on this phenomenon. Music piracy is not merely economical, but rather social phenomenon due to the underlying motivation of the actors which has shifted toward community sharing. The indication of misconception of value co-creation in the context of music piracy in Indonesia is also discussed. This study contributes theoretically that understanding how social norm configures the behavior of decision-making process is essential to breakdown the phenomenon of unlawful behavior in music industry. In practice, this study proposes that reward-based and context-based strategy is the most relevant strategy for stakeholders in music industry. Furthermore, this study provides an opportunity that findings may generalize well beyond music piracy context. As an emerging body of work that systematically constructs the backstage of law and social affect decision-making process, it is interesting to see how the model is implemented in other decision-behavior related situation.

Keywords: music piracy, social norm, behavioral decision-making, agent-based model, value co-creation

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Authors: Zenaida Chitu, Roxana Bojariu, Liliana Velea, Roxana Burcea

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A number of studies show that extreme air temperature affects mortality related to cardiovascular diseases, particularly among elderly people. In Romania, the summer thermal discomfort expressed by Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is highest in the Southern part of the country, where Bucharest, the largest Romanian urban agglomeration, is also located. The urban characteristics such as high building density and reduced green areas enhance the increase of the air temperature during summer. In Bucharest, as in many other large cities, the effect of heat urban island is present and determines an increase of air temperature compared to surrounding areas. This increase is particularly important during heat wave periods in summer. In this context, the researchers performed a temperature-mortality analysis based on daily deaths related to cardiovascular diseases, recorded between 2010 and 2019 in Bucharest. The temperature-mortality relationship was modeled by applying distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) that includes a bi-dimensional cross-basis function and flexible natural cubic spline functions with three internal knots in the 10th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the temperature distribution, for modelling both exposure-response and lagged-response dimensions. Firstly, this study applied this analysis for the present climate. Extrapolation of the exposure-response associations beyond the observed data allowed us to estimate future effects on mortality due to temperature changes under climate change scenarios and specific assumptions. We used future projections of air temperature from five numerical experiments with regional climate models included in the EURO-CORDEX initiative under the relatively moderate (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) concentration scenarios. The results of this analysis show for RCP 8.5 an ensemble-averaged increase with 6.1% of heat-attributable mortality fraction in future in comparison with present climate (2090-2100 vs. 2010-219), corresponding to an increase of 640 deaths/year, while mortality fraction due to the cold conditions will be reduced by 2.76%, corresponding to a decrease by 288 deaths/year. When mortality data is stratified according to the age, the ensemble-averaged increase of heat-attributable mortality fraction for elderly people (> 75 years) in the future is even higher (6.5 %). These findings reveal the necessity to carefully plan urban development in Bucharest to face the public health challenges raised by the climate change. Paper Details: This work is financed by the project URCLIM which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by Ministry of Environment, Romania with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). A part of this work performed by one of the authors has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme from the project EXHAUSTION under grant agreement No 820655.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, climate change, extreme air temperature, mortality

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Authors: Matej Komanec, Tomas Nemecek, Dmytro Suslov, Petr Chvojka, Stanislav Zvanovec

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Nonlinear phenomena in the near- and mid-infrared region are attracting scientific attention mainly due to the supercontinuum generation possibilities and subsequent utilizations for ultra-wideband applications like e.g. absorption spectroscopy or optical coherence tomography. Thulium-based fiber lasers provide access to high-power ultrashort pump pulses in the vicinity of 2000 nm, which can be easily exploited for various nonlinear applications. The paper presents a simulation and experimental study of a pulsed thulium laser based for near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) nonlinear applications in specialty optical fibers. In the first part of the paper the thulium laser is discussed. The thulium laser is based on a gain-switched seed-laser and a series of amplification stages for obtaining output peak powers in the order of kilowatts for pulses shorter than 200 ps in full-width at half-maximum. The pulsed thulium laser is first studied in a simulation software, focusing on seed-laser properties. Afterward, a pre-amplification thulium-based stage is discussed, with the focus of low-noise signal amplification, high signal gain and eliminating pulse distortions during pulse propagation in the gain medium. Following the pre-amplification stage a second gain stage is evaluated with incorporating a thulium-fiber of shorter length with increased rare-earth dopant ratio. Last a power-booster stage is analyzed, where the peak power of kilowatts should be achieved. Examples of analytical study are further validated by the experimental campaign. The simulation model is further corrected based on real components – parameters such as real insertion-losses, cross-talks, polarization dependencies, etc. are included. The second part of the paper evaluates the utilization of nonlinear phenomena, their specific features at the vicinity of 2000 nm, compared to e.g. 1550 nm, and presents supercontinuum modelling, based on the thulium laser pulsed output. Supercontinuum generation simulation is performed and provides reasonably accurate results, once fiber dispersion profile is precisely defined and fiber nonlinearity is known, furthermore input pulse shape and peak power must be known, which is assured thanks to the experimental measurement of the studied thulium pulsed laser. The supercontinuum simulation model is put in relation to designed and characterized specialty optical fibers, which are discussed in the third part of the paper. The focus is placed on silica and mainly on non-silica fibers (fluoride, chalcogenide, lead-silicate) in their conventional, microstructured or tapered variants. Parameters such as dispersion profile and nonlinearity of exploited fibers were characterized either with an accurate model, developed in COMSOL software or by direct experimental measurement to achieve even higher precision. The paper then combines all three studied topics and presents a possible application of such a thulium pulsed laser system working with specialty optical fibers.

Keywords: nonlinear phenomena, specialty optical fibers, supercontinuum generation, thulium laser

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Authors: Andrés Durán, Brian Castellanos, Marta Quicazán, Carlos Zuluaga-Domínguez

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Bee-pollen is an apicultural-derived food product, with a growing appreciation among consumers given the remarkable nutritional and functional composition, in particular, protein (24%), dietary fiber (15%), phenols (15 – 20 GAE/g) and carotenoids (600 – 900 µg/g). These properties are given by the geographical and climatic characteristics of the region where it is collected. There are several countries recognized by their pollen production, e.g. China, United States, Japan, Spain, among others. Beekeepers use traps in the entrance of the hive where bee-pollen is collected. After the removal of foreign particles and drying, this product is ready to be marketed. However, in countries located along the equator, the absence of seasons and a constant tropical climate throughout the year favors a more rapid spoilage condition for foods with elevated water activity. The climatic conditions also trigger the proliferation of microorganisms and insects. This, added to the factor that beekeepers usually do not have adequate processing systems for bee-pollen, leads to deficiencies in the quality and safety of the product. In contrast, the Andean region of South America, lying on equator, typically has a high production of bee-pollen of up to 36 kg/year/hive, being four times higher than in countries with marked seasons. This region is also located in altitudes superior to 2500 meters above sea level, having extremes sun ultraviolet radiation all year long. As a mechanism of defense of radiation, plants produce more secondary metabolites acting as antioxidant agents, hence, plant products such as bee-pollen contain remarkable more phenolics and carotenoids than collected in other places. Considering this, the improvement of bee-pollen processing facilities by technical modifications and the implementation of an integrated cleaning and drying system for the product in an apiary in the area was proposed. The beehives were modified through the installation of alternative bee-pollen traps to avoid sources of contamination. The processing facility was modified according to considerations of Good Manufacturing Practices, implementing the combined use of a cabin dryer with temperature control and forced airflow and a greenhouse-type solar drying system. Additionally, for the separation of impurities, a cyclone type system was implemented, complementary to a screening equipment. With these modifications, a decrease in the content of impurities and the microbiological load of bee-pollen was seen from the first stages, principally with a reduction of the presence of molds and yeasts and in the number of foreign animal origin impurities. The use of the greenhouse solar dryer integrated to the cabin dryer allowed the processing of larger quantities of product with shorter waiting times in storage, reaching a moisture content of about 6% and a water activity lower than 0.6, being appropriate for the conservation of bee-pollen. Additionally, the contents of functional or nutritional compounds were not affected, even observing an increase of up to 25% in phenols content and a non-significant decrease in carotenoids content and antioxidant activity.

Keywords: beekeeping, drying, food processing, food safety

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Authors: Robert Pečenko, Karin Tomažič, Igor Planinc, Sabina Huč, Tomaž Hozjan

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Timber is favourable structural material due to high strength to weight ratio, recycling possibilities, and green credentials. Despite being flammable material, it has relatively high fire resistance. Everyday engineering practice around the word is based on an outdated design of timber structures considering standard fire exposure, while modern principles of performance-based design enable use of advanced non-standard fire curves. In Europe, standard for fire design of timber structures EN 1995-1-2 (Eurocode 5) gives two methods, reduced material properties method and reduced cross-section method. In the latter, fire resistance of structural elements depends on the effective cross-section that is a residual cross-section of uncharred timber reduced additionally by so called zero strength layer. In case of standard fire exposure, Eurocode 5 gives a fixed value of zero strength layer, i.e. 7 mm, while for non-standard parametric fires no additional comments or recommendations for zero strength layer are given. Thus designers often implement adopted 7 mm rule also for parametric fire exposure. Since the latest scientific evidence suggests that proposed value of zero strength layer can be on unsafe side for standard fire exposure, its use in the case of a parametric fire is also highly questionable and more numerical and experimental research in this field is needed. Therefore, the purpose of the presented study is to use advanced calculation methods to investigate the thickness of zero strength layer and parametric charring rates used in effective cross-section method in case of parametric fire. Parametric studies are carried out on a simple solid timber beam that is exposed to a larger number of parametric fire curves Zero strength layer and charring rates are determined based on the numerical simulations which are performed by the recently developed advanced two step computational model. The first step comprises of hygro-thermal model which predicts the temperature, moisture and char depth development and takes into account different initial moisture states of timber. In the second step, the response of timber beam simultaneously exposed to mechanical and fire load is determined. The mechanical model is based on the Reissner’s kinematically exact beam model and accounts for the membrane, shear and flexural deformations of the beam. Further on, material non-linear and temperature dependent behaviour is considered. In the two step model, the char front temperature is, according to Eurocode 5, assumed to have a fixed temperature of around 300°C. Based on performed study and observations, improved levels of charring rates and new thickness of zero strength layer in case of parametric fires are determined. Thus, the reduced cross section method is substantially improved to offer practical recommendations for designing fire resistance of timber structures. Furthermore, correlations between zero strength layer thickness and key input parameters of the parametric fire curve (for instance, opening factor, fire load, etc.) are given, representing a guideline for a more detailed numerical and also experimental research in the future.

Keywords: advanced numerical modelling, parametric fire exposure, timber structures, zero strength layer

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Authors: Adino Andaregie, Isao Takagi, Hirohisa Shimura, Mitsuko Chikasada, Shinjiro Sato, Solomon Addisu

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Context: The prevalence of undernutrition in developing countries like Ethiopia has become a significant issue. In this regard, finding alternative nutritional supplements seems to be a practical solution. Spirulina, a highly nutritious microalgae, offers a valuable option as it is a rich source of various essential nutrients. The study aimed to establish the factors affecting urban Ethiopian consumers' consumption intention of Spirulina-fortified bread. Research Aim: The primary purpose of this research is to identify the behavioral and socioeconomic factors impacting the intention of urban Ethiopian consumers to eat Spirulina-fortified bread. Methodology: The research utilized a quantitative approach wherein a structured questionnaire was created and distributed among 361 urban consumers via an online platform. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) was used as a conceptual framework, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM) were employed for data analysis. Findings: The study results revealed that attitude towards the supplement, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were the critical factors influencing the consumption intention of Spirulina-fortified bread. Moreover, age, physical exercise, and prior knowledge of Spirulina as a food ingredient were also found to have a significant influence. Theoretical Importance: The study contributes towards the understanding of consumer behavior and factors affecting the purchase intentions of Spirulina-fortified bread in urban Ethiopia. The use of TPB as a theoretical framework adds a vital aspect to the study as it provides helpful insights into the factors affecting intentions towards this functional food. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data collection process involved the creation of a structured questionnaire, which was distributed online to urban Ethiopian consumers. Once data was collected, CFA and SEM were utilized to analyze the data and identify the factors impacting consumer behavior. Questions Addressed: The study aimed to address the following questions: (1) What are the behavioral and socioeconomic factors impacting urban Ethiopian consumers' consumption intention of Spirulina-fortified bread? (2) To what extent do attitude towards the supplement, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control affect the purchase intention of Spirulina-fortified bread? (3) What role does age, education, income, physical exercise, and prior knowledge of Spirulina as a food ingredient play in the purchase intention of Spirulina-fortified bread among urban Ethiopian consumers? Conclusion: The study concludes that attitude towards the supplement, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control are significant factors influencing urban Ethiopian consumers’ consumption intention of Spirulina-fortified bread. Moreover, age, education, income, physical exercise, and prior knowledge of Spirulina as a food ingredient also play a significant role in determining purchase intentions. The findings provide valuable insights for developing effective marketing strategies for Spirulina-fortified functional foods targeted at different consumer segments.

Keywords: spirulina, consumption, factors, intention, consumers, behavior

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Authors: Patrick Weber, Daniel Gredig

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Background and Purpose: Research has well documented the impact of discrimination and micro-aggressions on the wellbeing of gay men and, especially, adolescents. For the prevention of homophobic behavior against gay adolescents, however, the focus has to shift on those who discriminate: For the design and tailoring of prevention and intervention, it is important to understand the factors responsible for homophobic behavior such as, for example, verbal abuse. Against this background, the present study aimed to assess homophobic – in terms of verbally abusive – behavior against gay people among high school students. Furthermore, it aimed to establish the predictors of the reported behavior by testing an explanatory model. This model posits that homophobic behavior is determined by negative attitudes and knowledge. These variables are supposed to be predicted by the acceptance of traditional gender roles, religiosity, orientation toward social dominance, contact with gay men, and by the perceived expectations of parents, friends and teachers. These social-cognitive variables in turn are assumed to be determined by students’ gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and the discussion of gay issues in class. Method: From August to October 2016, we visited 58 high school classes in 22 public schools in a county in Switzerland, and asked the 8th and 9th year students on three formal school levels to participate in survey about gender and gay issues. For data collection, we used an anonymous self-administered questionnaire filled in during class. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling (Generalized Least Square Estimates method). The sample included 897 students, 334 in the 8th and 563 in the 9th year, aged 12–17, 51.2% being female, 48.8% male, 50.3% with immigration background. Results: A proportion of 85.4% participants reported having made homophobic statements in the 12 month before survey, 4.7% often and very often. Analysis showed that respondents’ homophobic behavior was predicted directly by negative attitudes (β=0.20), as well as by the acceptance of traditional gender roles (β=0.06), religiosity (β=–0.07), contact with gay people (β=0.10), expectations of parents (β=–0.14) and friends (β=–0.19), gender (β=–0.22) and having a South-East-European or Western- and Middle-Asian immigration background (β=0.09). These variables were predicted, in turn, by gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and discussion of gay issues in class (GFI=0.995, AGFI=0.979, SRMR=0.0169, CMIN/df=1.199, p>0.213, adj. R2 =0.384). Conclusion: Findings evidence a high prevalence of homophobic behavior in the responding high school students. The tested explanatory model explained 38.4% of the assessed homophobic behavior. However, data did not found full support of the model. Knowledge did not turn out to be a predictor of behavior. Except for the perceived expectation of teachers and orientation toward social dominance, the social-cognitive variables were not fully mediated by attitudes. Equally, gender and immigration background predicted homophobic behavior directly. These findings demonstrate the importance of prevention and provide also leverage points for interventions against anti-gay bias in adolescents – also in social work settings as, for example, in school social work, open youth work or foster care.

Keywords: discrimination, high school students, gay men, predictors, Switzerland

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Sabrina Neururer, Marco Schweitzer, Werner Hackl, Bernhard Tilg, Patrick Raudaschl, Andreas Huber, Bernhard Pfeifer

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History and the current outbreak of Covid-19 have shown the deadly potential of infectious diseases. However, infectious diseases also have a serious impact on areas other than health and healthcare, such as the economy or social life. These areas are strongly codependent. Therefore, disease control measures, such as social distancing, quarantines, curfews, or lockdowns, have to be adopted in a very considerate manner. Infectious disease modeling can support policy and decision-makers with adequate information regarding the dynamics of the pandemic and therefore assist in planning and enforcing appropriate measures that will prevent the healthcare system from collapsing. In this work, an agent-based simulation package named “survival” for simulating infectious diseases is presented. A special focus is put on SARS-Cov-2. The presented simulation package was used in Austria to model the SARS-Cov-2 outbreak from the beginning of 2020. Agent-based modeling is a relatively recent modeling approach. Since our world is getting more and more complex, the complexity of the underlying systems is also increasing. The development of tools and frameworks and increasing computational power advance the application of agent-based models. For parametrizing the presented model, different data sources, such as known infections, wastewater virus load, blood donor antibodies, circulating virus variants and the used capacity for hospitalization, as well as the availability of medical materials like ventilators, were integrated with a database system and used. The simulation result of the model was used for predicting the dynamics and the possible outcomes and was used by the health authorities to decide on the measures to be taken in order to control the pandemic situation. The survival package was implemented in the programming language Java and the analytics were performed with R Studio. During the first run in March 2020, the simulation showed that without measures other than individual personal behavior and appropriate medication, the death toll would have been about 27 million people worldwide within the first year. The model predicted the hospitalization rates (standard and intensive care) for Tyrol and South Tyrol with an accuracy of about 1.5% average error. They were calculated to provide 10-days forecasts. The state government and the hospitals were provided with the 10-days models to support their decision-making. This ensured that standard care was maintained for as long as possible without restrictions. Furthermore, various measures were estimated and thereafter enforced. Among other things, communities were quarantined based on the calculations while, in accordance with the calculations, the curfews for the entire population were reduced. With this framework, which is used in the national crisis team of the Austrian province of Tyrol, a very accurate model could be created on the federal state level as well as on the district and municipal level, which was able to provide decision-makers with a solid information basis. This framework can be transferred to various infectious diseases and thus can be used as a basis for future monitoring.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, agent-based, SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19

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Authors: Rachel Barker

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The exponential velocity in the truly knowledge-intensive world today has increasingly bombarded organizations with unfathomable challenges. Hence organizations are introduced to strange lexicons of descriptors belonging to a new paradigm of who, what and how knowledge at individual and organizational levels should be managed. Although organizational knowledge has been recognized as a valuable intangible resource that holds the key to competitive advantage, little progress has been made in understanding how knowledge sharing at individual level could benefit knowledge use at collective level to ensure added value. The research problem is that a lack of research exists to measure knowledge sharing through a multi-layered structure of ideas with at its foundation, philosophical assumptions to support presuppositions and commitment which requires actual findings from measured variables to confirm observed and expected events. The purpose of this paper is to address this problem by presenting a theoretical approach to measure knowledge sharing in emerging knowledge organizations. The research question is that despite the competitive necessity of becoming a knowledge-based organization, leaders have found it difficult to transform their organizations due to a lack of knowledge on who, what and how it should be done. The main premise of this research is based on the challenge for knowledge leaders to develop an organizational culture conducive to the sharing of knowledge and where learning becomes the norm. The theoretical constructs were derived and based on the three components of the knowledge management theory, namely technical, communication and human components where it is suggested that this knowledge infrastructure could ensure effective management. While it is realised that it might be a little problematic to implement and measure all relevant concepts, this paper presents effect of eight critical success factors (CSFs) namely: organizational strategy, organizational culture, systems and infrastructure, intellectual capital, knowledge integration, organizational learning, motivation/performance measures and innovation. These CSFs have been identified based on a comprehensive literature review of existing research and tested in a new framework adapted from four perspectives of the balanced score card (BSC). Based on these CSFs and their items, an instrument was designed and tested among managers and employees of a purposefully selected engineering company in South Africa who relies on knowledge sharing to ensure their competitive advantage. Rigorous pretesting through personal interviews with executives and a number of academics took place to validate the instrument and to improve the quality of items and correct wording of issues. Through analysis of surveys collected, this research empirically models and uncovers key aspects of these dimensions based on the CSFs. Reliability of the instrument was calculated by Cronbach’s a for the two sections of the instrument on organizational and individual levels.The construct validity was confirmed by using factor analysis. The impact of the results was tested using structural equation modelling and proved to be a basis for implementing and understanding the competitive predisposition of the organization as it enters the process of knowledge management. In addition, they realised the importance to consolidate their knowledge assets to create value that is sustainable over time.

Keywords: innovation, intellectual capital, knowledge sharing, performance measures

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Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: Jade V. Rushby, Tony Loughland, Tracy L. Durksen, Hoa Nguyen, Robert M. Klassen

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This paper reports a study investigating the development and implementation of an online multi-session ‘scenario-based learning’ (SBL) program administered to preservice teachers in Australia. The transition from initial teacher education to the teaching profession can present numerous cognitive and psychological challenges for early career teachers. Therefore, the identification of additional supports, such as scenario-based learning, that can supplement existing teacher education programs may help preservice teachers to feel more confident and prepared for the realities and complexities of teaching. Scenario-based learning is grounded in situated learning theory which holds that learning is most powerful when it is embedded within its authentic context. SBL exposes participants to complex and realistic workplace situations in a supportive environment and has been used extensively to help prepare students in other professions, such as legal and medical education. However, comparatively limited attention has been paid to investigating the effects of SBL in teacher education. In the present study, the SBL intervention provided participants with the opportunity to virtually engage with school-based scenarios, reflect on how they might respond to a series of plausible response options, and receive real-time feedback from experienced educators. The development process involved several stages, including collaboration with experienced educators to determine the scenario content based on ‘critical incidents’ they had encountered during their teaching careers, the establishment of the scoring key, the development of the expert feedback, and an extensive review process to refine the program content. The 4-part SBL program focused on areas that can be challenging in the beginning stages of a teaching career, including managing student behaviour and workload, differentiating the curriculum, and building relationships with colleagues, parents, and the community. Results from prior studies implemented by the research group using a similar 4-part format have shown a statistically significant increase in preservice teachers’ self-efficacy and classroom readiness from the pre-test to the final post-test. In the current research, professional teaching identity - incorporating self-efficacy, motivation, self-image, satisfaction, and commitment to teaching - was measured over six weeks at multiple time points: before, during, and after the 4-part scenario-based learning program. Analyses included latent growth curve modelling to assess the trajectory of change in the outcome variables throughout the intervention. The paper outlines (1) the theoretical underpinnings of SBL, (2) the development of the SBL program and methodology, and (3) the results from the study, including the impact of the SBL program on aspects of participating preservice teachers’ professional identity. The study shows how SBL interventions can be implemented alongside the initial teacher education curriculum to help prepare preservice teachers for the transition from student to teacher.

Keywords: classroom simulations, e-learning, initial teacher education, preservice teachers, professional learning, professional teaching identity, scenario-based learning, teacher development

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Chevonne Reynolds, Res Altwegg, Andrew Balmford, Claire N. Spottiswoode

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Modern agriculture has revolutionised the planet’s capacity to support humans, yet has simultaneously had a greater negative impact on biodiversity than any other human activity. Balancing the demand for food with the conservation of biodiversity is one of the most pressing issues of our time. Biodiversity-friendly farming (‘land sharing’), or alternatively, separation of conservation and production activities (‘land sparing’), are proposed as two strategies for mediating the trade-off between agriculture and biodiversity. However, there is much debate regarding the efficacy of each strategy, as this trade-off has typically been addressed by short term studies at fine spatial scales. These studies ignore processes that are relevant to biodiversity at larger scales, such as meta-population dynamics and landscape connectivity. Therefore, to better understand species response to agricultural land-use and provide evidence to underpin the planning of better production landscapes, we need to determine the merits of each strategy at larger scales. In South Africa, a remarkable citizen science project - the South African Bird Atlas Project 2 (SABAP2) – collates an extensive dataset describing the occurrence of birds at a 5-min by 5-min grid cell resolution. We use these data, along with fine-resolution data on agricultural land-use, to determine which strategy optimises the agriculture-biodiversity trade-off in a southern African context, and at a spatial scale never considered before. To empirically test this trade-off, we model bird species population density, derived for each 5-min grid cell by Royle-Nicols single-species occupancy modelling, against both the amount and configuration of different types of agricultural production in the same 5-min grid cell. In using both production amount and configuration, we can show not only how species population densities react to changes in yield, but also describe the production landscape patterns most conducive to conservation. Furthermore, the extent of both the SABAP2 and land-cover datasets allows us to test this trade-off across multiple regions to determine if bird populations respond in a consistent way and whether results can be extrapolated to other landscapes. We tested the land sparing/sharing trade-off for 281 bird species across three different biomes in South Africa. Overall, a higher proportion of species are classified as losers, and would benefit from land sparing. However, this proportion of loser-sparers is not consistent and varies across biomes and the different types of agricultural production. This is most likely because of differences in the intensity of agricultural land-use and the interactions between the differing types of natural vegetation and agriculture. Interestingly, we observe a higher number of species that benefit from agriculture than anticipated, suggesting that agriculture is a legitimate resource for certain bird species. Our results support those seen at smaller scales and across vastly different agricultural systems, that land sparing benefits the most species. However, our analysis suggests that land sparing needs to be implemented at spatial scales much larger than previously considered. Species persistence in agricultural landscapes will require the conservation of large tracts of land, and is an important consideration in developing countries, which are undergoing rapid agricultural development.

Keywords: agriculture, birds, land sharing, land sparing

Procedia PDF Downloads 208

Authors: Laila A. H. F. Dashti, Tom Jackson, Andrew West, Lisa Jackson

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Traceability systems are important in the agri-food and halal food sectors for monitoring ingredient movements, tracking sources, and ensuring food integrity. However, designing a traceability system for the halal food supply chain is challenging due to diverse stakeholder requirements and complex needs. Existing literature on stakeholder mapping and identifying requirements for halal food supply chains is limited. To address this gap, a pilot study was conducted to identify the objectives, requirements, and recommendations of stakeholders in the Kuwaiti halal food industry. The study collected data through semi-structured interviews with an international halal food manufacturer based in Kuwait. The aim was to gain a deep understanding of stakeholders' objectives, requirements, processes, and concerns related to the design of a traceability system in the country's halal food sector. Traceability systems are being developed and tested in the agri-food and halal food sectors due to their ability to monitor ingredient movements, track sources, and detect potential issues related to food integrity. Designing a traceability system for the halal food supply chain poses significant challenges due to diverse stakeholder requirements and the complexity of their needs (including varying food ingredients, different sources, destinations, supplier processes, certifications, etc.). Achieving a halal food traceability solution tailored to stakeholders' requirements within the supply chain necessitates prior knowledge of these needs. Although attempts have been made to address design-related issues in traceability systems, literature on stakeholder mapping and identification of requirements specific to halal food supply chains is scarce. Thus, this pilot study aims to identify the objectives, requirements, and recommendations of stakeholders in the halal food industry. The paper presents insights gained from the pilot study, which utilized semi-structured interviews to collect data from a Kuwait-based international halal food manufacturer. The objective was to gain an in-depth understanding of stakeholders' objectives, requirements, processes, and concerns pertaining to the design of a traceability system in Kuwait's halal food sector. The stakeholder mapping results revealed that government entities, food manufacturers, retailers, and suppliers are key stakeholders in Kuwait's halal food supply chain. Lessons learned from this pilot study regarding requirement capture for traceability systems include the need to streamline communication, focus on communication at each level of the supply chain, leverage innovative technologies to enhance process structuring and operations and reduce halal certification costs. The findings also emphasized the limitations of existing traceability solutions, such as limited cooperation and collaboration among stakeholders, high costs of implementing traceability systems without government support, lack of clarity regarding product routes, and disrupted communication channels between stakeholders. These findings contribute to a broader research program aimed at developing a stakeholder requirements framework that utilizes "business process modelling" to establish a unified model for traceable stakeholder requirements.

Keywords: supply chain, traceability system, halal food, stakeholders’ requirements

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Ani Kojoyan

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Linguistic studies have been investigating a connection between gender and linguistic development since 1970s. Scholars claim that gender differences in first and second language learning are socially constructed. Recent studies to language learning and gender reveal that second language acquisition is also a social phenomenon directly influencing one’s gender identity. Those responsible for designing language learning-teaching materials should be encouraged to understand the importance of and address the gender sensitivity accurately in textbooks. Writing or compiling a textbook is not an easy task; it requires strong academic abilities, patience, and experience. For a long period of time Armenia has been involved in the compilation process of a number of foreign language textbooks. However, there have been very few discussions or evaluations of those textbooks which will allow specialists to theorize that practice. The present paper focuses on the analysis of gender sensitivity issues and policy aspects involved in an EFL textbook. For the research the following material has been considered – “A Basic English Grammar: Morphology”, first printed in 2011. The selection of the material is not accidental. First, the mentioned textbook has been widely used in university teaching over years. Secondly, in Armenia “A Basic English Grammar: Morphology” has considered one of the most successful English grammar textbooks in a university teaching environment and served a source-book for other authors to compile and design their textbooks. The present paper aims to find out whether an EFL textbook is gendered in the Armenian teaching environment, and whether the textbook compilers are aware of gendered messages while compiling educational materials. It also aims at investigating students’ attitude toward the gendered messages in those materials. And finally, it also aims at increasing the gender sensitivity among book compilers and educators in various educational settings. For this study qualitative and quantitative research methods of analyses have been applied, the quantitative – in terms of carrying out surveys among students (45 university students, 18-25 age group), and the qualitative one – by discourse analysis of the material and conducting in-depth and semi-structured interviews with the Armenian compilers of the textbook (interviews with 3 authors). The study is based on passive and active observations and teaching experience done in a university classroom environment in 2014-2015, 2015-2016. The findings suggest that the discussed and analyzed teaching materials (145 extracts and examples) include traditional examples of intensive use of language and role-modelling, particularly, men are mostly portrayed as active, progressive, aggressive, whereas women are often depicted as passive and weak. These modeled often serve as a ‘reliable basis’ for reinforcing the traditional roles that have been projected on female and male students. The survey results also show that such materials contribute directly to shaping learners’ social attitudes and expectations around issues of gender. The applied techniques and discussed issues can be generalized and applied to other foreign language textbook compilation processes, since those principles, regardless of a language, are mostly the same.

Keywords: EFL textbooks, gender policy, gender sensitivity, qualitative and quantitative research methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Trevor C. Brown, David J. Miron

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Gas-solid physical adsorption methods are central to the characterization and optimization of the effective surface area, pore size and porosity for applications such as heterogeneous catalysis, and gas separation and storage. Properties such as adsorption uptake, capacity, equilibrium constants and Gibbs free energy are dependent on the composition and structure of both the gas and the adsorbent. However, challenges remain, in accurately calculating these properties from experimental data. Gas adsorption experiments involve measuring the amounts of gas adsorbed over a range of pressures under isothermal conditions. Various constant-parameter models, such as Langmuir and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) theories are used to provide information on adsorbate and adsorbent properties from the isotherm data. These models typically do not provide accurate interpretations across the full range of pressures and temperatures. The Langmuir adsorption isotherm is a simple approximation for modelling equilibrium adsorption data and has been effective in estimating surface areas and catalytic rate laws, particularly for high surface area solids. The Langmuir isotherm assumes the systematic filling of identical adsorption sites to a monolayer coverage. The BET model is based on the Langmuir isotherm and allows for the formation of multiple layers. These additional layers do not interact with the first layer and the energetics are equal to the adsorbate as a bulk liquid. This BET method is widely used to measure the specific surface area of materials. Both Langmuir and BET models assume that the affinity of the gas for all adsorption sites are identical and so the calculated adsorbent uptake at the monolayer and equilibrium constant are independent of coverage and pressure. Accurate representations of adsorption data have been achieved by extending the Langmuir and BET models to include pressure-varying uptake capacities and equilibrium constants. These parameters are determined using a novel regression technique called flexible least squares for time-varying linear regression. For isothermal adsorption the adsorption parameters are assumed to vary slowly and smoothly with increasing pressure. The flexible least squares for pressure-varying linear regression (FLS-PVLR) approach assumes two distinct types of discrepancy terms, dynamic and measurement for all parameters in the linear equation used to simulate the data. Dynamic terms account for pressure variation in successive parameter vectors, and measurement terms account for differences between observed and theoretically predicted outcomes via linear regression. The resultant pressure-varying parameters are optimized by minimizing both dynamic and measurement residual squared errors. Validation of this methodology has been achieved by simulating adsorption data for n-butane and isobutane on activated carbon at 298 K, 323 K and 348 K and for nitrogen on mesoporous alumina at 77 K with pressure-varying Langmuir and BET adsorption parameters (equilibrium constants and uptake capacities). This modeling provides information on the adsorbent (accessible surface area and micropore volume), adsorbate (molecular areas and volumes) and thermodynamic (Gibbs free energies) variations of the adsorption sites.

Keywords: Langmuir adsorption isotherm, BET adsorption isotherm, pressure-varying adsorption parameters, adsorbate and adsorbent properties and energetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Óscar Muñoz Garrigós, José Manuel Bernabeu Aubán

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Time-sensitive services are the base of the cloud services industry. Keeping low service saturation is essential for controlling response time. All auto-scalable services make use of reactive auto-scaling. However, reactive auto-scaling has few in-depth studies. This presentation shows a model for reactive auto-scaling methodologies with a MAPE-k architecture. Queuing theory can compute different properties of static services but lacks some parameters related to the transition between models. Our model uses queuing theory parameters to relate the transition between models. It associates MAPE-k related times, the sampling frequency, the cooldown period, the number of requests that an instance can handle per unit of time, the number of incoming requests at a time instant, and a function that describes the acceleration in the service's ability to handle more requests. This model is later used as a solution to horizontally auto-scale time-sensitive services composed of microservices, reevaluating the model’s parameters periodically to allocate resources. The solution requires limiting the acceleration of the growth in the number of incoming requests to keep a constrained response time. Business benefits determine such limits. The solution can add a dynamic number of instances and remains valid under different system sizes. The study includes performance recommendations to improve results according to the incoming load shape and business benefits. The exposed methodology is tested in a simulation. The simulator contains a load generator and a service composed of two microservices, where the frontend microservice depends on a backend microservice with a 1:1 request relation ratio. A common request takes 2.3 seconds to be computed by the service and is discarded if it takes more than 7 seconds. Both microservices contain a load balancer that assigns requests to the less loaded instance and preemptively discards requests if they are not finished in time to prevent resource saturation. When load decreases, instances with lower load are kept in the backlog where no more requests are assigned. If the load grows and an instance in the backlog is required, it returns to the running state, but if it finishes the computation of all requests and is no longer required, it is permanently deallocated. A few load patterns are required to represent the worst-case scenario for reactive systems: the following scenarios test response times, resource consumption and business costs. The first scenario is a burst-load scenario. All methodologies will discard requests if the rapidness of the burst is high enough. This scenario focuses on the number of discarded requests and the variance of the response time. The second scenario contains sudden load drops followed by bursts to observe how the methodology behaves when releasing resources that are lately required. The third scenario contains diverse growth accelerations in the number of incoming requests to observe how approaches that add a different number of instances can handle the load with less business cost. The exposed methodology is compared against a multiple threshold CPU methodology allocating/deallocating 10 or 20 instances, outperforming the competitor in all studied metrics.

Keywords: reactive auto-scaling, auto-scaling, microservices, cloud computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Kimberly Samaha

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In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, new methodologies to analyze investment risk are needed. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. This study modeled the economics and risk strategies of cradle-to-cradle linkages to incorporate the value-chain effects on capital/operational expenditures and investment risk reductions using a proprietary techno-economic model that incorporates investment risk scenarios utilizing the Monte Carlo methodology. The study calculated the sequential increases in profitability for each additional co-host on an operating forestry-based biomass energy plant in West Enfield, Maine. Phase I starts with the base-line of forestry biomass to electricity only and was built up in stages to include co-hosts of a greenhouse and a land-based shrimp farm. Phase I incorporates CO2 and heat waste streams from the operating power plant in an analysis of lowering and stabilizing the operating costs of the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Phase II analysis incorporated a jet-fuel biorefinery and its secondary slip-stream of biochar which would be developed into two additional bio-products: 1) A soil amendment compost for agriculture and 2) A biochar effluent filter for the aquaculture. The second part of the study applied the Monte Carlo risk methodology to illustrate how co-location derisks investment in an integrated Bio-Hub versus individual investments in stand-alone projects of energy, agriculture or aquaculture. The analyzed scenarios compared reductions in both Capital and Operating Expenditures, which stabilizes profits and reduces the investment risk associated with projects in energy, agriculture, and aquaculture. The major findings of this techno-economic modeling using the Monte Carlo technique resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. In 2018, the site was designated as an economic opportunity zone as part of a Federal Program, which allows for Capital Gains tax benefits for investments on the site. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. The Bio-hub Ecosystems techno-economic analysis model is a critical model to expedite new standards for investments in circular zero-waste projects. Profitable projects will expedite adoption and advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable Bio-Economy paradigm that supports local and rural communities.

Keywords: bio-economy, investment risk, circular design, economic modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

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Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Maria Amelia V. C. Araujo, Billy J. Araujo, Brian Greenwood

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The flow over a backward-facing step is characterized by the presence of flow separation, recirculation and reattachment, for a simple geometry. This type of fluid behaviour takes place in many practical engineering applications, hence the reason for being investigated. Historically, fluid flows over a backward-facing step have been examined in many experiments using a variety of measuring techniques such as laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV), hot-wire anemometry, particle image velocimetry or hot-film sensors. However, some of these techniques cannot conveniently be used in separated flows or are too complicated and expensive. In this work, the applicability of the acoustic Doppler velocimetry (ADV) technique is investigated to such type of flows, at various Reynolds numbers corresponding to different flow regimes. The use of this measuring technique in separated flows is very difficult to find in literature. Besides, most of the situations where the Reynolds number effect is evaluated in separated flows are in numerical modelling. The ADV technique has the advantage in providing nearly non-invasive measurements, which is important in resolving turbulence. The ADV Nortek Vectrino+ was used to characterize the flow, in a recirculating laboratory flume, at various Reynolds Numbers (Reh = 3738, 5452, 7908 and 17388) based on the step height (h), in order to capture different flow regimes, and the results compared to those obtained using other measuring techniques. To compare results with other researchers, the step height, expansion ratio and the positions upstream and downstream the step were reproduced. The post-processing of the AVD records was performed using a customized numerical code, which implements several filtering techniques. Subsequently, the Vectrino noise level was evaluated by computing the power spectral density for the stream-wise horizontal velocity component. The normalized mean stream-wise velocity profiles, skin-friction coefficients and reattachment lengths were obtained for each Reh. Turbulent kinetic energy, Reynolds shear stresses and normal Reynolds stresses were determined for Reh = 7908. An uncertainty analysis was carried out, for the measured variables, using the moving block bootstrap technique. Low noise levels were obtained after implementing the post-processing techniques, showing their effectiveness. Besides, the errors obtained in the uncertainty analysis were relatively low, in general. For Reh = 7908, the normalized mean stream-wise velocity and turbulence profiles were compared directly with those acquired by other researchers using the LDV technique and a good agreement was found. The ADV technique proved to be able to characterize the flow properly over a backward-facing step, although additional caution should be taken for measurements very close to the bottom. The ADV measurements showed reliable results regarding: a) the stream-wise velocity profiles; b) the turbulent shear stress; c) the reattachment length; d) the identification of the transition from transitional to turbulent flows. Despite being a relatively inexpensive technique, acoustic Doppler velocimetry can be used with confidence in separated flows and thus very useful for numerical model validation. However, it is very important to perform adequate post-processing of the acquired data, to obtain low noise levels, thus decreasing the uncertainty.

Keywords: ADV, experimental data, multiple Reynolds number, post-processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Water scarcity is a pressing issue in urban areas, even in smart cities where efficient resource management is a priority. This scarcity is mainly caused by factors such as lifestyle changes, excessive groundwater extraction, over-usage of water, rapid urbanization, and uncontrolled population growth. In the specific case of Gomti Nagar, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, the depletion of groundwater resources is particularly severe, leading to a water imbalance and posing a significant challenge for the region's sustainable development. The aim of this study is to address the water shortage in the Gomti Nagar region by focusing on the implementation of artificial groundwater recharge methods. Specifically, the research aims to investigate the effectiveness of rainwater collection through rooftop rainwater harvesting systems (RTRWHs) as a sustainable approach to reduce aquifer depletion and bridge the gap between groundwater recharge and extraction. The research methodology for this study involves the utilization of RTRWHs as the main method for collecting rainwater. This approach is considered effective in managing and conserving water resources in a sustainable manner. The focus is on implementing RTRWHs in residential and commercial buildings to maximize the collection of rainwater and its subsequent utilization for various purposes in the Gomti Nagar region. The study reveals that the installation of RTRWHs in the Gomti Nagar region has a positive impact on addressing the water scarcity issue. Currently, RTRWHs cover only a small percentage (0.04%) of the total rainfall collected in the region. However, when RTRWHs are installed in all buildings, their influence on increasing water availability and reducing aquifer depletion will be significantly greater. The study also highlights the significant water imbalance of 24519 ML/yr in the region, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable water management practices. This research contributes to the theoretical understanding of sustainable water management systems in smart cities. By highlighting the effectiveness of RTRWHs in reducing aquifer depletion, it emphasizes the importance of implementing such systems in urban areas. The findings of this study can serve as a basis for policymakers, urban planners, and developers to prioritize and incentivize the installation of RTRWHs as a potential solution to the water shortage crisis. The data for this study were collected through various sources such as government reports, surveys, and existing groundwater abstraction patterns. The collected data were then analysed to assess the current water situation, groundwater depletion rate, and the potential impact of implementing RTRWHs. Statistical analysis and modelling techniques were employed to quantify the water imbalance and evaluate the effectiveness of RTRWHs. The findings of this study demonstrate that the implementation of RTRWHs can effectively mitigate the water scarcity crisis in Gomti Nagar. By reducing aquifer depletion and bridging the gap between groundwater recharge and extraction, RTRWHs offer a sustainable solution to the region's water scarcity challenges. The study highlights the need for widespread adoption of RTRWHs in all buildings and emphasizes the importance of integrating such systems into the urban planning and development process. By doing so, smart cities like Gomti Nagar can achieve efficient water management, ensuring a better future with improved water availability for its residents.

Keywords: rooftop rainwater harvesting, rainwater, water management, aquifer

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Małgorzata Golonka, Jadwiga Laska

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Among self-healing materials, the most unexplored group are thermoplastic polymers. These polymers are used not only to produce packaging with a relatively short life but also to obtain coatings, insulation, casings, or parts of machines and devices. Due to its exceptional resistance to weather conditions, hydrophobicity, sufficient mechanical strength, and ease of extrusion, polyethylene is used in the production of polymer pipelines and as an insulating layer for steel pipelines. Polyethylene or PE coated steel pipelines can be used in difficult conditions such as underground or underwater installations. Both installation and use under such conditions are associated with high stresses and consequently the formation of microdamages in the structure of the material, loss of its integrity and final applicability. The ideal solution would be to include a self-healing system in the polymer material. In the presented study the behavior of resin-coated microcapsules in the extrusion process of low-density polyethylene was examined. Microcapsules are a convenient element of the repair system because they can be filled with appropriate reactive substances to ensure the repair process, but the main problem is their durability under processing conditions. Rapeseed oil, which has a relatively high boiling point of 240⁰C and low volatility, was used as the core material that simulates the reactive agents. The capsule shell, which is a key element responsible for its mechanical strength, was obtained by in situ polymerising urea-formaldehyde, melamine-urea-formaldehyde or melamine-formaldehyde resin on the surface of oil droplets dispersed in water. The strength of the capsules was compared based on the shell material, and in addition, microcapsules with single- and multilayer shells were obtained using different combinations of the chemical composition of the resins. For example, the first layer of appropriate tightness and stiffness was made of melamine-urea-formaldehyde resin, and the second layer was a melamine-formaldehyde reinforcing layer. The size, shape, distribution of capsule diameters and shell thickness were determined using digital optical microscopy and electron microscopy. The efficiency of encapsulation (i.e., the presence of rapeseed oil as the core) and the tightness of the shell were determined by FTIR spectroscopic examination. The mechanical strength and distribution of microcapsules in polyethylene were tested by extruding samples of crushed low-density polyethylene mixed with microcapsules in a ratio of 1 and 2.5% by weight. The extrusion process was carried out in a mini extruder at a temperature of 150⁰C. The capsules obtained had a diameter range of 70-200 µm. FTIR analysis confirmed the presence of rapeseed oil in both single- and multilayer shell microcapsules. Microscopic observations of cross sections of the extrudates confirmed the presence of both intact and cracked microcapsules. However, the melamine-formaldehyde resin shells showed higher processing strength compared to that of the melamine-urea-formaldehyde coating and the urea-formaldehyde coating. Capsules with a urea-formaldehyde shell work very well in resin coating systems and cement composites, i.e., in pressureless processing and moulding conditions. The addition of another layer of melamine-formaldehyde coating to both the melamine-urea-formaldehyde and melamine-formaldehyde resin layers significantly increased the number of microcapsules undamaged during the extrusion process. The properties of multilayer coatings were also determined and compared with each other using computer modelling.

Keywords: self-healing polymers, polyethylene, microcapsules, extrusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Pedro A. Marques, Francisco Monteiro, Alessandra Zumbo, Alessia Simonini, Miguel A. Mendez

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Cryogenic fuels such as Liquid Hydrogen (LH₂) must be transported and stored at extremely low temperatures. Without expensive active cooling solutions, preventing fuel boil-off over time is impossible. Hence, one must resort to venting systems at the cost of significant energy and fuel mass loss. These losses increase significantly in propellant tanks installed on vehicles, as the presence of external accelerations induces sloshing. Sloshing increases heat and mass transfer rates and leads to significant pressure oscillations, which might further trigger propellant venting. To make LH₂ economically viable, it is essential to minimize these factors by using advanced control techniques. However, these require accurate modelling and a full understanding of the tank's thermodynamics. The present research aims to implement a simple thermodynamic model capable of predicting the state of a cryogenic fuel tank under different operating conditions (i.e., filling, pressurization, fuel extraction, long-term storage, and sloshing). Since this model relies on a set of closure parameters to drive the system's transient response, it must be calibrated using experimental or numerical data. This work focuses on the former approach, wherein the model is calibrated through an experimental campaign carried out on a reduced-scale model of a cryogenic tank. The thermodynamic model of the system is composed of three control volumes: the ullage, the liquid, and the insulating walls. Under this lumped formulation, the governing equations are derived from energy and mass balances in each region, with mass-averaged properties assigned to each of them. The gas-liquid interface is treated as an infinitesimally thin region across which both phases can exchange mass and heat. This results in a coupled system of ordinary differential equations, which must be closed with heat and mass transfer coefficients between each control volume. These parameters are linked to the system evolution via empirical relations derived from different operating regimes of the tank. The derivation of these relations is carried out using an inverse method to find the optimal relations that allow the model to reproduce the available data. This approach extends classic system identification methods beyond linear dynamical systems via a nonlinear optimization step. Thanks to the data-driven assimilation of the closure problem, the resulting model accurately predicts the evolution of the tank's thermodynamics at a negligible computational cost. The lumped model can thus be easily integrated with other submodels to perform complete system simulations in real time. Moreover, by setting the model in a dimensionless form, a scaling analysis allowed us to relate the tested configurations to a representative full-size tank for naval applications. It was thus possible to compare the relative importance of different transport phenomena between the laboratory model and the full-size prototype among the different operating regimes.

Keywords: destratification, hydrogen, modeling, pressure-drop, pressurization, sloshing, thermodynamics

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Authors: Sevelina Ndlovu

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Financial Technology (fintech) advancement is recognised as one of the most transformational innovations in the financial industry. Fintech has given rise to internet-only digital banking, a novel financial technology advancement, and innovation that allows banking services through internet applications with no need for physical branches. This technology is becoming a new banking normal among consumers for its ubiquitous and real-time access advantages. There is evident switching and migration from traditional banking towards these fintech facilities, which could possibly pose a systemic risk if not properly understood and monitored. Fintech advancement has also brought about the emergence and escalation of financial technology consumption themes such as trust, security, perceived risk, and sustainability within the banking industry, themes scarcely covered in existing theoretic literature. To that end, the objective of this research is to investigate factors that determine fintech adoption and propose an integrated adoption model. This study aims to establish what the significant drivers of adoption are and develop a conceptual model that integrates technological, behavioral, and environmental constructs by extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2). It proposes integrating constructs that influence financial consumption themes such as trust, perceived risk, security, financial incentives, micro-investing opportunities, and environmental consciousness to determine the impact of these factors on the adoption and intention to use digital banking apps. The main advantage of this conceptual model is the consolidation of a greater number of predictor variables that can provide a fuller explanation of the consumer's adoption of digital banking Apps. Moderating variables of age, gender, and income are incorporated. To the best of author’s knowledge, this study is the first that extends the UTAUT2 model with this combination of constructs to investigate user’s intention to adopt internet-only digital banking apps in the UK context. By investigating factors that are not included in the existing theories but are highly pertinent to the adoption of internet-only banking services, this research adds to existing knowledge and extends the generalisability of the UTAUT2 in a financial services adoption context. This is something that fills a gap in knowledge, as highlighted to needing further research on UTAUT2 after reviewing the theory in 2016 from its original version of 2003. To achieve the objectives of this study, this research assumes a quantitative research approach to empirically test the hypotheses derived from existing literature and pilot studies to give statistical support to generalise the research findings for further possible applications in theory and practice. This research is explanatory or casual in nature and uses cross-section primary data collected through a survey method. Convenient and purposive sampling using structured self-administered online questionnaires is used for data collection. The proposed model is tested using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), and the analysis of primary data collected through an online survey is processed using Smart PLS software with a sample size of 386 digital bank users. The results are expected to establish if there are significant relationships between the dependent and independent variables and establish what the most influencing factors are.

Keywords: banking applications, digital banking, financial technology, technology adoption, UTAUT2

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Authors: Lynn Sheridan, Dennis Alonzo, Hoa Nguyen, Andy Gao, Tracy Durksen

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Disruptions to teaching (e.g., COVID-related) have increased work demands for teachers. There is an opportunity for research to explore evidence-informed steps to support teachers. Collective evidence informs data on teachers’ personal attributes (e.g., self-efficacy beliefs) in the workplace are seen to promote success in teaching and support teacher engagement. Teacher engagement plays a role in students’ learning and teachers’ effectiveness. Engaged teachers are better at overcoming work-related stress, burnout and are more likely to take on active roles. Teachers’ commitment is influenced by a host of personal (e.g., teacher well-being) and environmental factors (e.g., job stresses). The job demands-resources model provided a conceptual basis for examining how teachers’ well-being, and is influenced by job demands and job resources. Job demands potentially evoke strain and exceed the employee’s capability to adapt. Job resources entail what the job offers to individual teachers (e.g., organisational support), helping to reduce job demands. The application of the job demands-resources model involves gathering an evidence-base of and connection to personal attributes (job resources). The study explored the association between constructs (resilience, adaptability, commitment, self/collective efficacy) and a teacher’s engagement with the job. The paper sought to elaborate on the model and determine the associations between key constructs of well-being (resilience, adaptability), commitment, and motivation (self and collective-efficacy beliefs) to teachers’ engagement in teaching. Data collection involved online a multi-dimensional instrument using validated items distributed from 2020-2022. The instrument was designed to identify construct relationships. The participant number was 170. Data Analysis: The reliability coefficients, means, standard deviations, skewness, and kurtosis statistics for the six variables were completed. All scales have good reliability coefficients (.72-.96). A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation model (SEM) were performed to provide measurement support and to obtain latent correlations among factors. The final analysis was performed using structural equation modelling. Several fit indices were used to evaluate the model fit, including chi-square statistics and root mean square error of approximation. The CFA and SEM analysis was performed. The correlations of constructs indicated positive correlations exist, with the highest found between teacher engagement and resilience (r=.80) and the lowest between teacher adaptability and collective teacher efficacy (r=.22). Given the associations; we proceeded with CFA. The CFA yielded adequate fit: CFA fit: X (270, 1019) = 1836.79, p < .001, RMSEA = .04, and CFI = .94, TLI = .93 and SRMR = .04. All values were within the threshold values, indicating a good model fit. Results indicate that increasing teacher self-efficacy beliefs will increase a teacher’s level of engagement; that teacher ‘adaptability and resilience are positively associated with self-efficacy beliefs, as are collective teacher efficacy beliefs. Implications for school leaders and school systems: 1. investing in increasing teachers’ sense of efficacy beliefs to manage work demands; 2. leadership approaches can enhance teachers' adaptability and resilience; and 3. a culture of collective efficacy support. Preparing teachers for now and in the future offers an important reminder to policymakers and school leaders on the importance of supporting teachers’ personal attributes when faced with the challenging demands of the job.

Keywords: collective teacher efficacy, teacher self-efficacy, job demands, teacher engagement

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Authors: Mukondi Esther Nethavhakone

Abstract:

In 2020 World Health Organization announced the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To curb or contain the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID 19), global governments implemented social distancing and lockdown regulations. Subsequently, it was no longer business as per usual, life as we knew it had changed, and so many aspects of people's lives were negatively affected, including financial and employment stability. Mainly, because companies/businesses had to put their operations on hold, some had to shut down completely, resulting in the loss of income for many people globally. Finances and employment insecurities are some of the issues that exacerbated many social issues that the world was already faced with, such as school drop-outs, teenage pregnancies, sexual assaults, gender-based violence, crime, child abuse, elderly abuse, to name a few. Expectedly the majority of the population's mental health state was threatened. This resulted in an increased number of people seeking mental healthcare services. The increasing need for mental healthcare services in Low and Middle-income countries proves to be a challenge because it is a well-known fact due to financial constraints and not well-established healthcare systems, mental healthcare provision is not as prioritised as the primary healthcare in these countries. It is against this backdrop that the researcher seeks to find viable, cost-effective, and accessible mental health solutions for low and middle-income countries amid the pressures of any pandemic. The researcher will undertake a systematic review of the technology-based mental health solutions that have been implemented/adopted by developed countries during COVID 19 lockdown and social distancing periods. This systematic review study aims to determine if low and middle-income countries can adopt the cost-effective version of digital mental health solutions for the healthcare system to adequately provide mental healthcare services during critical times such as pandemics (when there's an overwhelming diminish in mental health globally). The researcher will undertake a systematic review study through mixed methods. It will adhere to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The mixed-methods uses findings from both qualitative and quantitative studies in one review study. It will be beneficial to conduct this kind of study using mixed methods because it is a public health topic that involves social interventions and it is not purely based on medical interventions. Therefore, the meta-ethnographic (qualitative data) analysis will be crucial in understanding why and which digital methods work and for whom does it work, rather than only the meta-analysis (quantitative data) providing what digital mental health methods works. The data collection process will be extensive, involving the development of a database, table of summary of evidence/findings, and quality assessment process lastly, The researcher will ensure that ethical procedures are followed and adhered to, ensuring that sensitive data is protected and the study doesn't pose any harm to the participants.

Keywords: digital, mental health, covid, low and middle-income countries

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Authors: Anitha Kandasamy, Thirumurugan Ramaiah

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Interestingly, organic materials exhibit large optical nonlinearity with quick responses and having the flexibility of molecular tailoring using computational modelling and favourable synthetic methodologies. Pyridine based organic compounds and carboxylic acid contained aromatic compounds play a crucial role in crystal engineering of NCS complexes that displays admirable optical nonlinearity with fast response and favourable physicochemical properties such as low dielectric constant, wide optical transparency and large laser damage threshold value requires for optoelectronics device applications. Based on these facts, it was projected to form an acentric molecule of π-conjugated system interaction with appropriately replaced electron donor and acceptor groups for achieving higher SHG activity in which quinoline-2-carboyxlic acid is chosen as an electron acceptor and capable of acting as an acid as well as a base molecule, while 2-amino-4-methylpyridine is used as an electron donor and previously employed in numerous proton transfer complexes for synthesis of NLO materials for optoelectronic applications. 2-amino-4-mehtylpyridinium quinoline-2-carboxylate molecular complex (2AQ) is having π-donor-acceptor groups in which 2-amino-4-methylpyridine donates one of its electron to quinoline -2-carboxylic acid thereby forming a protonated 2-amino-4-methyl pyridinium moiety and mono ionized quinoline-2-carboxylate moiety which are connected via N-H…O intermolecular interactions with non-centrosymmetric crystal packing arrangement at microscopic scale is accountable to the enhancement of macroscopic second order NLO activity. The 2AQ crystal was successfully grown by a slow evaporation solution growth technique and its structure was determined in orthorhombic crystal system with acentric, P212121, space group. Hirshfeld surface analysis reveals that O…H intermolecular interactions primarily contributed with 31.0 % to the structural stabilization of 2AQ. The molecular structure of title compound has been confirmed by 1H and 13C NMR spectral studies. The vibrational modes of functional groups present in 2AQ have been assigned by using FTIR and FT-Raman spectroscopy. The grown 2AQ crystal exhibits high optical transparency with lower cut-off wavelength (275 nm) within the region of 275-1500 nm. The laser study confirmed that 2AQ exhibits high SHG efficiency of 12.6 times greater than that of KDP. TGA-DTA analysis revealed that 2AQ crystal had a thermal stability of 223 °C. The low dielectric constant and low dielectric loss at higher frequencies confirmed good crystalline nature with fewer defects of grown 2AQ crystal. The grown crystal exhibits soft material and positive photoconduction behaviour. Mulliken atomic distribution and FMOs analysis suggested that the strong intermolecular hydrogen bonding which lead to the enhancement of NLO activity. These properties suggest that 2AQ crystal is a suitable material for optoelectronic and laser frequency conversion applications.

Keywords: crystal growth, NLO activity, proton transfer complex, quantum chemical investigation

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Authors: Rasha Elsawy

Abstract:

Aside from the rapid growth of global information technology and the Internet, another key trend is the swift proliferation of wearable technologies. The future of wearable technologies is very bright as an emerging revolution in this technological world. Beyond this, individual continuance intention toward IT is an important area that drew academics' and practitioners' attention. The literature review exhibits that continuance usage is an important concern that needs to be addressed for any technology to be advantageous and for consumers to succeed. However, consumers noticeably abandon their wearable devices soon after purchase, losing all subsequent benefits that can only be achieved through continued usage. Purpose-This thesis aims to develop an integrated model designed to explain and predict consumers' behavioural intention(BI) and continued use (CU) of wearable fitness technology (WFT) to identify the determinants of the CU of technology. Because of this, the question arises as to whether there are differences between technology adoption and post-adoption (CU) factors. Design/methodology/approach- The study employs the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology2 (UTAUT2), which has the best explanatory power, as an underpinning framework—extending it with further factors, along with user-specific personal characteristics as moderators. All items will be adapted from previous literature and slightly modified according to the WFT/SW context. A longitudinal investigation will be carried out to examine the research model, wherein a survey will include these constructs involved in the conceptual model. A quantitative approach based on a questionnaire survey will collect data from existing wearable technology users. Data will be analysed using the structural equation modelling (SEM) method based on IBM SPSS statistics and AMOS 28.0. Findings- The research findings will provide unique perspectives on user behaviour, intention, and actual continuance usage when accepting WFT. Originality/value- Unlike previous works, the current thesis comprehensively explores factors that affect consumers' decisions to continue using wearable technology. That is influenced by technological/utilitarian, affective, emotional, psychological, and social factors, along with the role of proposed moderators. That novel research framework is proposed by extending the UTAUT2 model with additional contextual variables classified into Performance Expectancy, Effort Expectancy, Social Influence (societal pressure regarding body image), Facilitating Conditions, Hedonic Motivation (to be split up into two concepts: perceived enjoyment and perceived device annoyance), Price value, and Habit-forming techniques; adding technology upgradability as determinants of consumers' behavioural intention and continuance usage of Information Technology (IT). Further, using personality traits theory and proposing relevant user-specific personal characteristics (openness to technological innovativeness, conscientiousness in health, extraversion, neuroticism, and agreeableness) to moderate the research model. Thus, the present thesis obtains a more convincing explanation expected to provide theoretical foundations for future emerging IT (such as wearable fitness devices) research from a behavioural perspective.

Keywords: wearable technology, wearable fitness devices/smartwatches, continuance use, behavioural intention, upgradability, longitudinal study

Procedia PDF Downloads 113