Search results for: rainfall prediction

Authors: Hasen Keder Edris, Ryuji Matsunaga, Toshi Yamanaka

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The issue of climate change and its impact is a major contemporary global concern. Ethiopia is one of the countries experiencing adverse climate change impact including frequent extreme weather events that are exacerbating drought and water scarcity. Due to this reason, the government of Ethiopia develops a strategic document which focuses on the climate resilience green economy. One of the major components of the strategic framework is designed to improve community adaptation capacity and mitigation of drought. For effective implementation of the strategy, identification of regions relative vulnerability to drought is vital. There is a growing tendency of applying Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies for collecting information on duration and severity of drought by direct measure of the topography as well as an indirect measure of land cover. This study aims to show an application of remote sensing technology and GIS for developing drought vulnerability index by taking lowland of Ethiopia as a case study. In addition, it assesses integrated Information Communication Technology (ICT) potential of Ethiopia lowland and proposes integrated solution. Satellite data is used to detect the beginning of the drought. The severity of drought risk prone areas of livestock keeping pastoral is analyzed through normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ten years rainfall data. The change from the existing and average SPOT NDVI and vegetation condition index is used to identify the onset of drought and potential risks. Secondary data is used to analyze geographical coverage of mobile and internet usage in the region. For decades, the government of Ethiopia introduced some technologies and approach to overcoming climate change related problems. However, lack of access to information and inadequate technical support for the pastoral area remains a major challenge. In conventional business as usual approach, the lowland pastorals continue facing a number of challenges. The result indicated that 80% of the region face frequent drought occurrence and out of this 60% of pastoral area faces high drought risk. On the other hand, the target area mobile phone and internet coverage is rapidly growing. One of identified ICT solution enabler technology is telecom center which covers 98% of the region. It was possible to identify the frequently affected area and potential drought risk using the NDVI remote-sensing data analyses. We also found that ICT can play an important role in mitigating climate change challenge. Hence, there is a need to strengthen implementation efforts of climate change adaptation through integrated Remote Sensing and web based information dissemination and mobile alert of extreme events.

Keywords: climate changes, ICT, pastoral, remote sensing

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Authors: Surajit Das Barman, Rakibuzzaman Shah, Apurv Kumar

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Bushfire is known as one of the ascendant factors to create pyrocumulus thundercloud that causes the ignition of new fires by pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) lightning strikes and creates major losses of lives and property worldwide. A conceptual model-based risk planning would be beneficial to predict the lightning striking zones on the surface of the earth underneath the pyroCb thundercloud. PyroCb thundercloud can generate both positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) and negative cloud-to-ground (-CG) lightning in which +CG tends to ignite more bushfires and cause massive damage to nature and infrastructure. In this paper, a simple line charge structured thundercloud model is constructed in 2-D coordinates using the method of image charge to predict the probable +CG lightning striking zones on the earth’s surface for two conceptual thundercloud charge configurations: titled dipole and conventional tripole structure with excessive lower positive charge regions that lead to producing +CG lightning. The electric potential and surface charge density along the earth’s surface for both structures via continuously adjusting the position and the charge density of their charge regions is investigated. Simulation results for tilted dipole structure confirm the down-shear extension of the upper positive charge region in the direction of the cloud’s forward flank by 4 to 8 km, resulting in negative surface density, and would expect +CG lightning to strike within 7.8 km to 20 km around the earth periphery in the direction of the cloud’s forward flank. On the other hand, the conceptual tripole charge structure with enhanced lower positive charge region develops negative surface charge density on the earth’s surface in the range |x| < 6.5 km beneath the thundercloud and highly favors producing +CG lightning strikes.

Keywords: pyrocumulonimbus, cloud-to-ground lightning, charge structure, surface charge density, forward flank

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Omran M. Kenshel, Alan J. O'Connor

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Estimating the service life of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridge structures located in corrosive marine environments of a great importance to their owners/engineers. Traditionally, bridge owners/engineers relied more on subjective engineering judgment, e.g. visual inspection, in their estimation approach. However, because financial resources are often limited, rational calculation methods of estimation are needed to aid in making reliable and more accurate predictions for the service life of RC structures. This is in order to direct funds to bridges found to be the most critical. Criticality of the structure can be considered either form the Structural Capacity (i.e. Ultimate Limit State) or from Serviceability viewpoint whichever is adopted. This paper considers the service life of the structure only from the Structural Capacity viewpoint. Considering the great variability associated with the parameters involved in the estimation process, the probabilistic approach is most suited. The probabilistic modelling adopted here used Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the Reliability (i.e. Probability of Failure) of the structure under consideration. In this paper the authors used their own experimental data for the Correlation Length (CL) for the most important deterioration parameters. The CL is a parameter of the Correlation Function (CF) by which the spatial fluctuation of a certain deterioration parameter is described. The CL data used here were produced by analyzing 45 chloride profiles obtained from a 30 years old RC bridge located in a marine environment. The service life of the structure were predicted in terms of the load carrying capacity of an RC bridge beam girder. The analysis showed that the influence of SV is only evident if the reliability of the structure is governed by the Flexure failure rather than by the Shear failure.

Keywords: Chloride-induced corrosion, Monte-Carlo simulation, reinforced concrete, spatial variability

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Authors: Azadeh Jafari, Farzin Ghanadi, Matthew J. Emes, Maziar Arjomandi, Benjamin S. Cazzolato

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The turbulence within the atmospheric boundary layer induces highly unsteady aerodynamic loads on structures. These loads, if not accounted for in the design process, will lead to structural failure and are therefore important for the design of the structures. For an accurate prediction of wind loads, understanding the correlation between atmospheric turbulence and the aerodynamic loads is necessary. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of turbulence within the atmospheric boundary layer on the surface pressure on a flat plate over a wide range of turbulence intensities and integral length scales. The flat plate is chosen as a fundamental geometry which represents structures such as solar panels and billboards. Experiments were conducted at the University of Adelaide large-scale wind tunnel. Two wind tunnel boundary layers with different intensities and length scales of turbulence were generated using two sets of spires with different dimensions and a fetch of roughness elements. Average longitudinal turbulence intensities of 13% and 26% were achieved in each boundary layer, and the longitudinal integral length scale within the three boundary layers was between 0.4 m and 1.22 m. The pressure distributions on a square flat plate at different elevation angles between 30° and 90° were measured within the two boundary layers with different turbulence intensities and integral length scales. It was found that the peak pressure coefficient on the flat plate increased with increasing turbulence intensity and integral length scale. For example, the peak pressure coefficient on a flat plate elevated at 90° increased from 1.2 to 3 with increasing turbulence intensity from 13% to 26%. Furthermore, both the mean and the peak pressure distribution on the flat plates varied with turbulence intensity and length scale. The results of this study can be used to provide a more accurate estimation of the unsteady wind loads on structures such as buildings and solar panels.

Keywords: atmospheric boundary layer, flat plate, pressure coefficient, turbulence

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Authors: Giulia Sarego, Lorenzo Olivieri, Andrea Valmorbida, Carlo Bettanini, Giacomo Colombatti, Marco Pertile, Enrico C. Lorenzini

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International guidelines recommend removing any artificial body in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) within 25 years from mission completion. Among disposal strategies, electrodynamic tethers appear to be a promising option for LEO, thanks to the limited storage mass and the minimum interface requirements to the host spacecraft. In particular, recent technological advances make it feasible to deorbit large objects with tether lengths of a few kilometers or less. To further investigate such an innovative passive system, the European Union is currently funding the project E.T.PACK – Electrodynamic Tether Technology for Passive Consumable-less Deorbit Kit in the framework of the H2020 Future Emerging Technologies (FET) Open program. The project focuses on the design of an end of life disposal kit for LEO satellites. This kit aims to deploy a taped tether that can be activated at the spacecraft end of life to perform autonomous deorbit within the international guidelines. In this paper, the orbital performance of the E.T.PACK deorbiting kit is compared to other disposal methods. Besides, the orbital decay prediction is parametrized as a function of spacecraft mass and tether system performance. Different values of length, width, and thickness of the tether will be evaluated for various scenarios (i.e., different initial orbital parameters). The results will be compared to other end-of-life disposal methods with similar allocated resources. The analysis of the more innovative system’s performance with the tape coated with a thermionic material, which has a low work-function (LWT), for which no active component for the cathode is required, will also be briefly discussed. The results show that the electrodynamic tether option can be a competitive and performant solution for satellite disposal compared to other deorbit technologies.

Keywords: deorbiting performance, H2020, spacecraft disposal, space electrodynamic tethers

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Authors: Ismail Abubakar, Hamid Mehrabi, Reg Morton

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Currently, extensive signal analysis is performed in order to evaluate structural health of turbomachinery blades. This approach is affected by constraints of time and the availability of qualified personnel. Thus, new approaches to blade dynamics identification that provide faster and more accurate results are sought after. Generally, modal analysis is employed in acquiring dynamic properties of a vibrating turbomachinery blade and is widely adopted in condition monitoring of blades. The analysis provides useful information on the different modes of vibration and natural frequencies by exploring different shapes that can be taken up during vibration since all mode shapes have their corresponding natural frequencies. Experimental modal testing and finite element analysis are the traditional methods used to evaluate mode shapes with limited application to real live scenario to facilitate a robust condition monitoring scheme. For a real time mode shape evaluation, rapid evaluation and low computational cost is required and traditional techniques are unsuitable. In this study, artificial neural network is developed to evaluate the mode shape of a lab scale rotating blade assembly by using result from finite element modal analysis as training data. The network performance evaluation shows that artificial neural network (ANN) is capable of mapping the correlation between natural frequencies and mode shapes. This is achieved without the need of extensive signal analysis. The approach offers advantage from the perspective that the network is able to classify mode shapes and can be employed in real time including simplicity in implementation and accuracy of the prediction. The work paves the way for further development of robust condition monitoring system that incorporates real time mode shape evaluation.

Keywords: modal analysis, artificial neural network, mode shape, natural frequencies, pattern recognition

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Authors: Ashwin Belle, Bryce Benson, Mark Salamango, Fadi Islim, Rodney Daniels, Kevin Ward

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A reliable, real-time, and non-invasive system that can identify patients at risk for hemodynamic instability is needed to aid clinicians in their efforts to anticipate patient deterioration and initiate early interventions. The purpose of this pilot study was to explore the clinical capabilities of a real-time analytic from a single lead of an electrocardiograph to correctly distinguish between rapid response team (RRT) activations due to hemodynamic (H-RRT) and non-hemodynamic (NH-RRT) causes, as well as predict H-RRT cases with actionable lead times. The study consisted of a single center, retrospective cohort of 21 patients with RRT activations from step-down and telemetry units. Through electronic health record review and blinded to the analytic’s output, each patient was categorized by clinicians into H-RRT and NH-RRT cases. The analytic output and the categorization were compared. The prediction lead time prior to the RRT call was calculated. The analytic correctly distinguished between H-RRT and NH-RRT cases with 100% accuracy, demonstrating 100% positive and negative predictive values, and 100% sensitivity and specificity. In H-RRT cases, the analytic detected hemodynamic deterioration with a median lead time of 9.5 hours prior to the RRT call (range 14 minutes to 52 hours). The study demonstrates that an electrocardiogram (ECG) based analytic has the potential for providing clinical decision and monitoring support for caregivers to identify at risk patients within a clinically relevant timeframe allowing for increased vigilance and early interventional support to reduce the chances of continued patient deterioration.

Keywords: critical care, early warning systems, emergency medicine, heart rate variability, hemodynamic instability, rapid response team

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Authors: Aqsa Jamil, Tamura Hiroshi, Katsuchi Hiroshi, Wang Jiaqi

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The yield point represents the upper limit of forces which can be applied to a specimen without causing any permanent deformation. After yielding, the behavior of the specimen suddenly changes, including the possibility of cracking or buckling. So, the accumulation of damage or type of fracture changes depending on this condition. As it is difficult to accurately detect yield points of the several stress concentration points in structural steel specimens, an effort has been made in this research work to develop a convenient technique using thermography (temperature-based detection) during tensile tests for the precise detection of yield point initiation. To verify the applicability of thermography camera, tests were conducted under different loading conditions and measuring the deformation by installing various strain gauges and monitoring the surface temperature with the help of a thermography camera. The yield point of specimens was estimated with the help of temperature dip, which occurs due to the thermoelastic effect during the plastic deformation. The scattering of the data has been checked by performing a repeatability analysis. The effects of temperature imperfection and light source have been checked by carrying out the tests at daytime as well as midnight and by calculating the signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the noised data from the infrared thermography camera, it can be concluded that the camera is independent of testing time and the presence of a visible light source. Furthermore, a fully coupled thermal-stress analysis has been performed by using Abaqus/Standard exact implementation technique to validate the temperature profiles obtained from the thermography camera and to check the feasibility of numerical simulation for the prediction of results extracted with the help of the thermographic technique.

Keywords: signal to noise ratio, thermoelastic effect, thermography, yield point

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Authors: Rui Calejo Rodrigues

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Building Refurbishing and Maintenance is a major area of knowledge ultimately dispensed to user/occupant criteria. The optimization of the service life of a building needs a special background to be assessed as it is one of those concepts that needs proficiency to be implemented. ISO 15686-2 Buildings and constructed assets - Service life planning: Part 2, Service life prediction procedures, states a factorial method based on deterministic data for building components life span. Major consequences result on a deterministic approach because users/occupants are not sensible to understand the end of components life span and so simply act on deterministic periods and so costly and resources consuming solutions do not meet global targets of planet sustainability. The estimation of 2 thousand million conventional buildings in the world, if submitted to a probabilistic method for service life planning rather than a deterministic one provide an immense amount of resources savings. Since 1989 the research team nowadays stating for CEES–Center for Building in Service Studies developed a methodology based on Montecarlo method for probabilistic approach regarding life span of building components, cost and service life care time spans. The research question of this deals with the importance of probabilistic approach of buildings life planning compared with deterministic methods. It is presented the mathematic model developed for buildings probabilistic lifespan approach and experimental data is obtained to be compared with deterministic data. Assuming that buildings lifecycle depends a lot on component replacement this methodology allows to conclude on the global impact of fixed replacements methodologies such as those on result of deterministic models usage. Major conclusions based on conventional buildings estimate are presented and evaluated under a sustainable perspective.

Keywords: building components life cycle, building maintenance, building sustainability, Montecarlo Simulation

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Authors: Stefaan Carpentier, Aya Al Masri, Fabrice Leroy, Thibault Julien, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: During an 'Interventional Radiology (IR)' procedure, the patient's skin-dose may become very high for a burn, necrosis, and ulceration to appear. In order to prevent these deterministic effects, a prediction of the peak skin-dose for the patient is important in order to improve the post-operative care to be given to the patient. The objective of this study is to estimate, before the intervention, the patient dose for ‘Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO)’ procedures by selecting relevant clinical indicators. Materials and methods: 103 procedures were performed in the ‘Interventional Cardiology (IC)’ department using a Siemens Artis Zee image intensifier that provides the Air Kerma of each IC exam. Peak Skin Dose (PSD) was measured for each procedure using radiochromic films. Patient parameters such as sex, age, weight, and height were recorded. The complexity index J-CTO score, specific to each intervention, was determined by the cardiologist. A correlation method applied to these indicators allowed to specify their influence on the dose. A predictive model of the dose was created using multiple linear regressions. Results: Out of 103 patients involved in the study, 5 were excluded for clinical reasons and 2 for placement of radiochromic films outside the exposure field. 96 2D-dose maps were finally used. The influencing factors having the highest correlation with the PSD are the patient's diameter and the J-CTO score. The predictive model is based on these parameters. The comparison between estimated and measured skin doses shows an average difference of 0.85 ± 0.55 Gy for doses of less than 6 Gy. The mean difference between air-Kerma and PSD is 1.66 Gy ± 1.16 Gy. Conclusion: Using our developed method, a first estimate of the dose to the skin of the patient is available before the start of the procedure, which helps the cardiologist in carrying out its intervention. This estimation is more accurate than that provided by the Air-Kerma.

Keywords: chronic total occlusion procedures, clinical experimentation, interventional radiology, patient's peak skin dose

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Ulugbek Azimov, Nearchos Stylianidis, Nobuyuki Kawahara, Eiji Tomita

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A chemical kinetics and computational fluid-dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed to evaluate the combustion of syngas derived from biomass and coke-oven solid feedstock in a micro-pilot ignited supercharged dual-fuel engine under lean conditions. For this analysis, a new reduced syngas chemical kinetics mechanism was constructed and validated by comparing the ignition delay and laminar flame speed data with those obtained from experiments and other detail chemical kinetics mechanisms available in the literature. The reaction sensitivity analysis was conducted for ignition delay at elevated pressures in order to identify important chemical reactions that govern the combustion process. The chemical kinetics of NOx formation was analyzed for H2/CO/CO2/CH4 syngas mixtures by using counter flow burner and premixed laminar flame speed reactor models. The new mechanism showed a very good agreement with experimental measurements and accurately reproduced the effect of pressure, temperature and equivalence ratio on NOx formation. In order to identify the species important for NOx formation, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for pressures 4 bar, 10 bar and 16 bar and preheat temperature 300 K. The results show that the NOx formation is driven mostly by hydrogen based species while other species, such as N2, CO2 and CH4, have also important effects on combustion. Finally, the new mechanism was used in a multidimensional CFD simulation to predict the combustion of syngas in a micro-pilot-ignited supercharged dual-fuel engine and results were compared with experiments. The mechanism showed the closest prediction of the in-cylinder pressure and the rate of heat release (ROHR).

Keywords: syngas, chemical kinetics mechanism, internal combustion engine, NOx formation

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Bello, A., Muhammed Ibrahim Abba., Abdullahi, M., Dauda, Sabo, & Shittu, A. T.

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This study investigated the Predictors of Lecturers Knowledge Sharing Acceptance on Open Educational Resources (OER) in North-East Nigerian in Universities. The study population comprised of 632 lecturers of Federal Universities in North-east Nigeria. The study sample covered 338 lecturers who were selected purposively from Adamawa, Bauchi and Borno State Federal Universities in Nigeria. The study adopted a prediction correlational research design. The instruments used for data collection was the questionnaire. Experts in the field of educational technology validated the instrument and tested it for reliability checks using Cronbach’s alpha. The constructs on lecturers’ acceptance to share OER yielded a reliability coefficient of; α = .956 for Performance Expectancy, α = .925; for Effort Expectancy, α = .955; for Social Influence, α = .879; for Facilitating Conditions and α = .948 for acceptance to share OER. the researchers contacted the Deanery of faculties of education and enlisted local coordinators to facilitate the data collection process at each university. The data was analysed using multiple sequential regression statistic at a significance level of 0.05 using SPSS version 23.0. The findings of the study revealed that performance expectancy (β = 0.658; t = 16.001; p = 0.000), effort expectancy (β = 0.194; t = 3.802; p = 0.000), social influence (β = 0.306; t = 5.246; p = 0.000), collectively indicated that the variables have a predictive capacity to stimulate lecturer’s acceptance to share their resources on OER repository. However, the finding revealed that facilitating conditions (β = .053; t = .899; p = 0.369), does not have a predictive capacity to stimulate lecturer’s acceptance to share their resources on OER repository. Based on these findings, the study recommends among others that the university management should consider adjusting OER policy to be centered around actualizing lecturers career progression.

Keywords: acceptance, lecturers, open educational resources, knowledge sharing

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Authors: Caren Hilger, Silke Burkert, Friederike Kendel

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Men with localized prostate cancer (PCa) have to choose among different treatment options, such as active surveillance (AS) and radical prostatectomy (RP). All available treatment options may be accompanied by specific psychological or physiological side effects. Depending on the nature and extent of these side effects, patients are more or less likely to be satisfied or to struggle with their treatment decision in the long term. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess and explain decisional regret in men with localized PCa. The role of erectile functioning as one of the main physiological side effects of invasive PCa treatment, depressive symptoms as a common psychological side effect, and the association of erectile functioning and depressive symptoms with decisional regret were investigated. Men with localized PCa initially managed with AS or RP (N=292) were matched according to length of therapy (mean 47.9±15.4 months). Subjects completed mailed questionnaires assessing decisional regret, changes in erectile functioning, depressive symptoms, and sociodemographic variables. Clinical data were obtained from case report forms. Differences among the two treatment groups (AS and RP) were calculated using t-tests and χ²-tests, relationships of decisional regret with erectile functioning and depressive symptoms were computed using multiple regression. Men were on average 70±7.2 years old. The two treatment groups differed markedly regarding decisional regret (p<.001, d=.50), changes in erectile functioning (p<.001, d=1.2), and depressive symptoms (p=.01, d=.30), with men after RP reporting higher values, respectively. Regression analyses showed that after adjustment for age, tumor risk category, and changes in erectile functioning, depressive symptoms were still significantly associated with decisional regret (B=0.52, p<.001). Additionally, when predicting decisional regret, the interaction of changes in erectile functioning and depressive symptoms reached significance for men after RP (B=0.52, p<.001), but not for men under AS (B=-0.16, p=.14). With increased changes in erectile functioning, the association of depressive symptoms with decisional regret became stronger in men after RP. Decisional regret is a phenomenon more prominent in men after RP than in men under AS. Erectile functioning and depressive symptoms interact in their prediction of decisional regret. Screening and treating depressive symptoms might constitute a starting point for interventions aiming to reduce decisional regret in this target group.

Keywords: active surveillance, decisional regret, depressive symptoms, erectile functioning, prostate cancer, radical prostatectomy

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Authors: Ayobami Solomon Popoola

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Yam is majorly a carbohydrate food grown in most parts of the world. It could be boiled, fried or roasted for consumption in a variety of ways. Blanching is an established heat pre-treatment given to fruits and vegetables prior to further processing such as dehydration, canning, freezing etc. Losses of soluble solids during blanching has been a great problem because a reasonable quantity of the water-soluble nutrients are inevitably leached into the blanching water. Without blanching, the high residual levels of reducing sugars after extended storage produce a dark, bitter-tasting product because of the Maillard reactions of reducing sugars at frying temperature. Measurement and prediction of such losses are necessary for economic efficiency in production and to establish the level of effluent treatment of the blanching water. This paper aims at resolving this problem by investigating the effects of cube size and temperature on the rate of diffusional losses of reducing sugars and total sugars during hot water blanching of water-yam. The study was carried out using four temperature levels (65, 70, 80 and 90 °C) and two cubes sizes (0.02 m³ and 0.03 m³) at 4 times intervals (5, 10, 15 and 20 mins) respectively. Obtained data were fitted into Fick’s non-steady equation from which diffusion coefficients (Da) were obtained. The Da values were subsequently fitted into Arrhenius plot to obtain activation energies (Ea-values) for diffusional losses. The diffusion co-efficient were independent of cube size and time but highly temperature dependent. The diffusion coefficients were ≥ 1.0 ×10⁻⁹ m²s⁻¹ for reducing sugars and ≥ 5.0 × 10⁻⁹ m²s⁻¹ for total sugars. The Ea values ranged between 68.2 to 73.9 KJmol⁻¹ and 7.2 to 14.30 KJmol⁻¹ for reducing sugars and total sugars losses respectively. Predictive equations for estimating amount of reducing sugars and total sugars with blanching time of water-yam at various temperatures were also presented. The equation could be valuable in process design and optimization. However, amount of other soluble solids that might have leached into the water along with reducing and total sugars during blanching was not investigated in the study.

Keywords: blanching, kinetics, sugar losses, water yam

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Authors: Muhammad Karim Ahmadzai

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Floods are natural phenomena and are an integral part of the water cycle. The majority of them are the result of climatic conditions, but are also affected by the geology and geomorphology of the area, topography and hydrology, the water permeability of the soil and the vegetation cover, as well as by all kinds of human activities and structures. However, from the moment that human lives are at risk and significant economic impact is recorded, this natural phenomenon becomes a natural disaster. Flood management is now a key issue at regional and local levels around the world, affecting human lives and activities. The majority of floods are unlikely to be fully predicted, but it is feasible to reduce their risks through appropriate management plans and constructions. The aim of this Case Study is to identify, and map areas of flood risk in the Khinch District of Panjshir Province, Afghanistan specifically in the area of Peshghore, causing numerous damages. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the contribution of remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing the susceptibility of this region to flood events. Panjsher is facing Seasonal floods and human interventions on streams caused floods. The beds of which have been trampled to build houses and hotels or have been converted into roads, are causing flooding after every heavy rainfall. The streams crossing settlements and areas with high touristic development have been intensively modified by humans, as the pressure for real estate development land is growing. In particular, several areas in Khinch are facing a high risk of extensive flood occurrence. This study concentrates on the construction of a flood susceptibility map, of the study area, by combining vulnerability elements, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process/ AHP. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, normally called AHP, is a powerful yet simple method for making decisions. It is commonly used for project prioritization and selection. AHP lets you capture your strategic goals as a set of weighted criteria that you then use to score projects. This method is used to provide weights for each criterion which Contributes to the Flood Event. After processing of a digital elevation model (DEM), important secondary data were extracted, such as the slope map, the flow direction and the flow accumulation. Together with additional thematic information (Landuse and Landcover, topographic wetness index, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Elevation, River Density, Distance from River, Distance to Road, Slope), these led to the final Flood Risk Map. Finally, according to this map, the Priority Protection Areas and Villages and the structural and nonstructural measures were demonstrated to Minimize the Impacts of Floods on residential and Agricultural areas.

Keywords: flood hazard, flood risk map, flood mitigation measures, AHP analysis

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Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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Authors: Liliia N. Butymova, Vladimir Y. Modorsky, Nikolai A. Shevelev

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Prediction of vibration processes in gas transmittal units (GTU) is an urgent problem. Despite numerous scientific publications on the problem of vibrations in general, there are not enough works concerning FSI-modeling interaction processes between several deformable blades in gas-dynamic flow. Since it is very difficult to solve the problem in full scope, with all factors considered, a unidirectional dynamic coupled 1FSI model is suggested for use at the first stage, which would include, from symmetry considerations, two blades, which might be considered as the first stage of solving more general bidirectional problem. ANSYS CFX programmed multi-processor was chosen as a numerical computation tool. The problem was solved on PNRPU high-capacity computer complex. At the first stage of the study, blades were believed oscillating with the same frequency, although oscillation phases could be equal and could be different. At that non-stationary gas-dynamic forces distribution over the blades surfaces is calculated in run of simulation experiment. Oscillations in the “gas — structure” dynamic system are assumed to increase if the resultant of these gas-dynamic forces is in-phase with blade oscillation, and phase shift (φ=0). Provided these oscillation occur with phase shift, then oscillations might increase or decrease, depending on the phase shift value. The most important results are as follows: the angle of phase shift in inter-blade oscillation and the gas-dynamic force depends on the flow velocity, the specific inter-blade gap, and the shaft rotation speed; a phase shift in oscillation of adjacent blades does not always correspond to phase shift of gas-dynamic forces affecting the blades. Thus, it was discovered, that asynchronous oscillation of blades might cause either attenuation or intensification of oscillation. It was revealed that clocking effect might depend not only on the mutual circumferential displacement of blade rows and the gap between the blades, but also on the blade dynamic deformation nature.

Keywords: aeroelasticity, ANSYS CFX, oscillation, phase shift, clocking effect, vibrations

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Authors: Melkamu Tadesse Getachew

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Intelligent control systems have revolutionized biomedical engineering, advancing research and enhancing medical practice. This review paper examines the impact of intelligent control on various aspects of biomedical engineering. It analyzes how these systems enhance precision and accuracy in biomedical instrumentation, improving diagnostics, monitoring, and treatment. Integration challenges are addressed, and potential solutions are proposed. The paper also investigates the optimization of drug delivery systems through intelligent control. It explores how intelligent systems contribute to precise dosing, targeted drug release, and personalized medicine. Challenges related to controlled drug release and patient variability are discussed, along with potential avenues for overcoming them. The comparison of algorithms used in intelligent control systems in biomedical control is also reviewed. The implications of intelligent control in computational and systems biology are explored, showcasing how these systems enable enhanced analysis and prediction of complex biological processes. Challenges such as interpretability, human-machine interaction, and machine reliability are examined, along with potential solutions. Intelligent control in biomedical engineering also plays a crucial role in risk management during surgical operations. This section demonstrates how intelligent systems improve patient safety and surgical outcomes when integrated into surgical robots, augmented reality, and preoperative planning. The challenges associated with these implementations and potential solutions are discussed in detail. In summary, this review paper comprehensively explores the widespread impact of intelligent control on biomedical engineering, showing the future of human health issues promising. It discusses application areas, challenges, and potential solutions, highlighting the transformative potential of these systems in advancing research and improving medical practice.

Keywords: Intelligent control systems, biomedical instrumentation, drug delivery systems, robotic surgical instruments, Computational monitoring and modeling

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Authors: Riky Tri Hartagung, Mohammad Syamsu Rosid

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The lithology prediction process, as well as the fluid content is the most important part in the reservoir characterization. One of the methods used in this process is the simultaneous seismic inversion method. In the Posseidon field, Browse Basin, Australia, the parameters generated through simultaneous seismic inversion are not able to characterize the reservoir accurately because of the overlapping impedance values between hydrocarbon sand, water sand, and shale, which causes a high level of ambiguity in the interpretation. The Poisson Impedance inversion provides a solution to this problem by rotating the impedance a few degrees, which is obtained through the coefficient c. Coefficient c is obtained through the Target Correlation Coefficient Analysis (TCCA) by finding the optimum correlation coefficient between Poisson Impedance and the target log, namely gamma ray, effective porosity, and resistivity. Correlation of each of these target logs will produce Lithology Impedance (LI) which is sensitive to lithology sand, Porosity Impedance (ϕI) which is sensitive to porous sand, and Fluid Impedance (FI) which is sensitive to fluid content. The results show that PI gives better results in separating hydrocarbon saturated reservoir zones. Based on the results of the LI-GR crossplot, the ϕI-effective porosity crossplot, and the FI-Sw crossplot with optimum correlations of 0.74, 0.91, and 0.82 respectively, it shows that the lithology of hidrocarbon-saturated porous sand is at the value of LI ≤ 2800 (m/s)(g *cc), ϕI ≤ 5500 (m/s)(g*cc), and FI ≤ 4000 (m/s)(g*cc). The presence of low values of LI, ϕI, and FI correlates accurately with the presence of hydrocarbons in the well. Each value of c is then applied to the seismic data. The results show that the PI inversion gives a good distribution of Hydrocarbon-saturated porous sand lithology. The distribution of hydrocarbon saturated porous sand on the seismic inversion section is seen in the northeast – southwest direction, which is estimated as the direction of gas distribution.

Keywords: reservoir characterization, poisson impedance, browse basin, poseidon field

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Authors: Ganbat Danaa, Chuluundorj Puntsag

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The steel structures of the Oyu-Tolgoi mining Concentrator plant are corroded during operation, which raises doubts about the continued use of some important structures of the plant, which is one of the problems facing the plant's regular operation. As a part of the main operation of the plant, the bottom part of the pressure vessel, which plays an important role in the reliable operation of the concentrate filter-drying unit, was heavily corroded, so it was necessary to study by engineering calculations, modeling, and simulation using modern advanced engineering programs and methods. The purpose of this research is to investigate whether the corroded part of the pressure vessel can be used normally in the future using advanced engineering software and to predetermine the remaining life of the time of the pressure vessel based on engineering calculations. When the thickness of the bottom part of the pressure vessel was thinned by 0.5mm due to corrosion detected by non-destructive testing, finite element analysis using ANSYS WorkBench software was used to determine the mechanical stress, strain and safety factor in the wall and bottom of the pressure vessel operating under 2.2 MPa working pressure, made conclusions on whether it can be used in the future. According to the recommendations, by using sand-blast cleaning and anti-corrosion paint, the normal, continuous and reliable operation of the Concentrator plant can be ensured, such as ordering new pressure vessels and reducing the installation period. By completing this research work, it will be used as a benchmark for assessing the corrosion condition of steel parts of pressure vessels and other metallic and non-metallic structures operating under severe conditions of corrosion, static and dynamic loads, and other deformed steels to make analysis of the structures and make it possible to evaluate and control the integrity and reliable operation of the structures.

Keywords: corrosion, non-destructive testing, finite element analysis, safety factor, structural reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Jhe-Hao Huang, Kun-Da Wu, Wei-Cheng Shih, Jui-Pin Hung

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This study presented the investigation on the dynamic characteristics of a spindle tool system by experimental and finite element modeling approaches. As well known facts, the machining stability is greatly determined by the dynamic characteristics of the spindle tool system. Therefore, understanding the factors affecting dynamic behavior of a spindle tooling system is a prerequisite in dominating the final machining performance of machine tool system. To this purpose, a physical spindle unit was employed to assess the dynamic characteristics by vibration tests. Then, a three-dimensional finite element model of a high-speed spindle system integrated with tool holder was created to simulate the dynamic behaviors. For modeling the angular contact bearings, a series of spring elements were introduced between the inner and outer rings. The spring constant can be represented by the contact stiffness of the rolling bearing based on Hertz theory. The interface characteristic between spindle nose and tool holder taper can be quantified from the comparison of the measurements and predictions. According to the results obtained from experiments and finite element predictions, the vibration behavior of the spindle is dominated by the bending deformation of the spindle shaft in different modes, which is further determined by the stiffness of the bearings in spindle housing. Also, the spindle unit with tool holder shows a different dynamic behavior from that of spindle without tool holder. This indicates the interface property between tool holder and spindle nose plays an dominance on the dynamic characteristics the spindle tool system. Overall, the dynamic behaviors the spindle with and without tool holder can be successfully investigated through the finite element model proposed in this study. The prediction accuracy is determined by the modeling of the rolling interface of ball bearings in spindles and the interface characteristics between tool holder and spindle nose. Besides, identifications of the interface characteristics of a ball bearing and spindle tool holder are important for the refinement of the spindle tooling system to achieve the optimum machining performance.

Keywords: contact stiffness, dynamic characteristics, spindle, tool holder interface

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Magy Atef Awad Attia

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The objective of this study was to study the effect of social stories on social interaction of students with autism. The sample was at level 5 student with autism, Another University Demonstration School student, who was diagnosed by the Physician as High Functioning Autism since he was able to read, write, calculate and was studying in inclusive classroom. However, he still had disability in social interaction to participate in social activity group and communication. He could not learn how to develop friendship or create relationship. He had inappropriate behavior in social context. He did not understand complex social situations. In addition, he did seemed to not know time and place. He was not able to understand feeling of oneself as well as the others. Consequently, he could not express his emotion appropriately. He did not understand or express his non-verbal language for communicating with friends. He lacked of common interest or emotion with nearby persons. He greeted inappropriately or was not interested in greeting. In addition, he did not have eye contact. He used inadequate language etc. He was elected by Purposive Sampling. His parents were willing to allow them to participate in this study. The research instruments were the lesson plan of social stories, and the picture book of social stories. The instruments used for data collection, were the social interaction evaluation of autistic students. This research was Experimental Research as One Group Pre-test, Post-test Design. For the Pre-test, the experiment was conducted by social stories. Then, the Post-test was implemented. The statistic used for data analysis. The research results were shown by scale. The results revealed that the autistic students taught by social stories indicated better social reaction after being taught by social stories.

Keywords: autism, autistic behavior, stability, harsh environments, techniques, thermal, properties, materials, applications, brittleness, fragility, disadvantages, bank, branches, profitability, setting prediction, effective target, measurement, evaluation, performance, commercial, business, sustainability, financial, system.

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Authors: Marianna Maiaru, Gregory M. Odegard

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During the processing of high-performance thermoset polymer matrix composites, chemical reactions occur during elevated pressure and temperature cycles, causing the constituent monomers to crosslink and form a molecular network that gradually can sustain stress. As the crosslinking process progresses, the material naturally experiences a gradual shrinkage due to the increase in covalent bonds in the network. Once the cured composite completes the cure cycle and is brought to room temperature, the thermal expansion mismatch of the fibers and matrix cause additional residual stresses to form. These compounded residual stresses can compromise the reliability of the composite material and affect the composite strength. Composite process modeling is greatly complicated by the multiscale nature of the composite architecture. At the molecular level, the degree of cure controls the local shrinkage and thermal-mechanical properties of the thermoset. At the microscopic level, the local fiber architecture and packing affect the magnitudes and locations of residual stress concentrations. At the macroscopic level, the layup sequence controls the nature of crack initiation and propagation due to residual stresses. The goal of this research is use molecular dynamics (MD) and finite element analysis (FEA) to predict the residual stresses in composite laminates and the corresponding effect on composite failure. MD is used to predict the polymer shrinkage and thermomechanical properties as a function of degree of cure. This information is used as input into FEA to predict the residual stresses on the microscopic level resulting from the complete cure process. Virtual testing is subsequently conducted to predict strength allowables. Experimental characterization is used to validate the modeling.

Keywords: molecular dynamics, finite element analysis, processing modeling, multiscale modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Berkas Khaoula

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Based on selection characteristics, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) extruded pipes are among the most economical and durable materials as well-designed solutions for water and gas transmission systems. The main reasons for such a choice are the high quality-performance ratio and the long-term service durability under aggressive conditions. Due to inevitable interactions with soils of different chemical compositions and transported fluids, aggressiveness becomes a key factor in studying resilient strength and life prediction limits. This phenomenon is known as environmental stress cracking resistance (ESCR). In this work, the effect of 3 acidic environments (5% acetic, 20% hydrochloric and 20% sulfuric) on HDPE-100 samples (~10x11x24 mm3). The results presented in the form (Δm/m0, %) as a function of √t indicate that the absorption, in the case of strong acids (HCl and H2SO4), evolves towards negative values involving material losses such as antioxidants and some additives. On the other hand, acetic acid and deionized water (DW) give a form of linear Fickean (LF) and B types, respectively. In general, the acids cause a slow but irreversible alteration of the chemical structure, composition and physical integrity of the polymer. The DW absorption is not significant (~0.02%) for an immersion duration of 69 days. Such results are well accepted in actual applications, while changes caused by acidic environments are serious and must be subjected to particular monitoring of the OIT factor (Oxidation Induction Time). After 55 days of aging, the H2SO4 and HCl media showed particular values with a loss of % mass in the interval [0.025-0.038] associated with irreversible chemical reactions as well as physical degradations. This state is usually explained by hydrolysis of the polymer, causing the loss of functions and causing chain scissions. These results are useful for designing and estimating the lifetime of the tube in service and in contact with adverse environments.

Keywords: HDPE, environmental stress cracking, absorption, acid media, chemical aging

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Younes El Khchine, Mohammed Sriti

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A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×10⁵ and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, that causes earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, S809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Kishor T. Zingre, Seshadhri Srinivasan

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Energy consumption by the building sector is increasing at an alarming rate throughout the world and leading to more building-related CO₂ emissions into the environment. In buildings, the main contributors to energy consumption are heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, lighting, and electrical appliances. It is hypothesised that the energy efficiency in buildings can be achieved by implementing sustainable technologies such as i) enhancing the thermal resistance of fabric materials for reducing heat gain (in hotter climates) and heat loss (in colder climates), ii) enhancing daylight and lighting system, iii) HVAC system and iv) occupant localization. Energy performance of various sustainable technologies is highly dependent on climatic conditions. This paper investigated the use of machine learning techniques for accurate prediction of air-conditioning energy in seasonal climates. The data required to train the machine learning techniques is obtained using the computational simulations performed on a 3-story commercial building using EnergyPlus program plugged-in with OpenStudio and Google SketchUp. The EnergyPlus model was calibrated against experimental measurements of surface temperatures and heat flux prior to employing for the simulations. It has been observed from the simulations that the performance of sustainable fabric materials (for walls, roof, and windows) such as phase change materials, insulation, cool roof, etc. vary with the climate conditions. Various renewable technologies were also used for the building flat roofs in various climates to investigate the potential for electricity generation. It has been observed that the proposed technique overcomes the shortcomings of existing approaches, such as local linearization or over-simplifying assumptions. In addition, the proposed method can be used for real-time estimation of building air-conditioning energy.

Keywords: building energy efficiency, energyplus, machine learning techniques, seasonal climates

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: R. Pillai Aparna, S. R. Gandhi

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Soft clay deposits having low strength and high compressibility are found all over the world. Preloading with vertical drains is a widely used method for improving such type of soils. The coefficient of consolidation, irrespective of the drainage type, plays an important role in the design of vertical drains and it controls accurate prediction of the rate of consolidation of soil. Also, the increase in shear strength of soil with consolidation is another important factor considered in preloading or staged construction. To our best knowledge no clear guidelines are available to estimate the increase in shear strength for a particular degree of consolidation (U) at various stages during the construction. Various methods are available for finding out the consolidation coefficient. This study mainly focuses on the variation of, consolidation coefficient which was found out using different methods and shear strength with pressure intensity. The variation of shear strength with the degree of consolidation was also studied. The consolidation test was done using two types of highly compressible clays with vertical, radial and a few with combined drainage. The test was carried out at different pressures intensities and for each pressure intensity, once the target degree of consolidation is achieved, vane shear test was done at different locations in the sample, in order to determine the shear strength. The shear strength of clayey soils under the application of vertical stress with vertical and radial drainage with target U value of 70% and 90% was studied. It was found that there is not much variation in cv or cr value beyond 80kPa pressure intensity. Correlations were developed between shear strength ratio and consolidation pressure based on laboratory testing under controlled condition. It was observed that the shear strength of sample with target U value of 90% is about 1.4 to 2 times than that of 70% consolidated sample. Settlement analysis was done using Asaoka’s and hyperbolic method. The variation of strength with respect to the depth of sample was also studied, using large-scale consolidation test. It was found, based on the present study that the gain in strength is more on the top half of the clay layer, and also the shear strength of the sample ensuring radial drainage is slightly higher than that of the vertical drainage.

Keywords: consolidation coefficient, degree of consolidation, PVDs, shear strength

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Authors: Mikiyas Adugna

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Effort estimation is among the activities carried out in software development processes. An accurate model of estimation leads to project success. The method of agile effort estimation is a complex task because of the dynamic nature of software development. Researchers are still conducting studies on agile effort estimation to enhance prediction accuracy. Due to these reasons, we investigated and proposed a model on LASSO and Elastic Net regression to enhance estimation accuracy. The proposed model has major components: preprocessing, train-test split, training with default parameters, and cross-validation. During the preprocessing phase, the entire dataset is normalized. After normalization, a train-test split is performed on the dataset, setting training at 80% and testing set to 20%. We chose two different phases for training the two algorithms (Elastic Net and LASSO) regression following the train-test-split. In the first phase, the two algorithms are trained using their default parameters and evaluated on the testing data. In the second phase, the grid search technique (the grid is used to search for tuning and select optimum parameters) and 5-fold cross-validation to get the final trained model. Finally, the final trained model is evaluated using the testing set. The experimental work is applied to the agile story point dataset of 21 software projects collected from six firms. The results show that both Elastic Net and LASSO regression outperformed the compared ones. Compared to the proposed algorithms, LASSO regression achieved better predictive performance and has acquired PRED (8%) and PRED (25%) results of 100.0, MMRE of 0.0491, MMER of 0.0551, MdMRE of 0.0593, MdMER of 0.063, and MSE of 0.0007. The result implies LASSO regression algorithm trained model is the most acceptable, and higher estimation performance exists in the literature.

Keywords: agile software development, effort estimation, elastic net regression, LASSO

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Sebastien Relave, Christophe Desrayaud, Aurelien Vilani, Alexey Sova

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Laser beam melting (LBM) is an additive manufacturing process that enables complex 3D parts to be designed. This process is now commonly employed for various applications such as chemistry or energy, requiring the use of stainless steel grades. LBM can offer comparable and sometimes superior mechanical properties to those of wrought materials. However, we observed an anisotropic microstructure which results from the process, caused by the very high thermal gradients along the building axis. This microstructure can be harmful depending on the application. For this reason, control and prediction of the microstructure are important to ensure the improvement and reproducibility of the mechanical properties. This study is focused on the 316L SS grade and aims at understanding the solidification and transformation mechanisms during process. Experiments to analyse the nucleation and growth of the microstructure obtained by the LBM process according to several conditions. These samples have been designed on different type of support bulk and lattice. Samples are produced on ProX DMP 200 LBM device. For the two conditions the analysis of microstructures, thanks to SEM and EBSD, revealed a single phase Austenite with preferential crystallite growth along the (100) plane. The microstructure was presented a hierarchical structure consisting columnar grains sizes in the range of 20-100 µm and sub grains structure of size 0.5 μm. These sub-grains were found in different shapes (columnar and cellular). This difference can be explained by a variation of the thermal gradient and cooling rate or element segregation while no sign of element segregation was found at the sub-grain boundaries. A high dislocation concentration was observed at sub-grain boundaries. These sub-grains are separated by very low misorientation walls ( < 2°) this causes a lattice of curvature inside large grain. A discussion is proposed on the occurrence of these microstructures formation, in regard of the LBM process conditions.

Keywords: selective laser melting, stainless steel, microstructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, REVIVE team

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The environment of the mosquitoes complex Culex pipiens sl. in Portugal mainland is evaluated based in its abundance, using a data set georeferenced, collected during seven years (2006-2012) from May to October. The suitability of the different regions can be delineated using the relative abundance areas; the suitablility index is directly proportional to disease transmission risk and allows focusing mitigation measures in order to avoid outbreaks of vector-borne diseases. The interest in the Culex pipiens complex is justified by its medical importance: the females bite all warm-blooded vertebrates and are involved in the circulation of several arbovirus of concern to human health, like West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses. The abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes were documented systematically all over the territory by the local health services, in a long duration program running since 2006. The environmental factors used to characterize the vector habitat are land use/land cover, distance to cartographed water bodies, altitude and latitude. Focus will be on the mosquito females, which gonotrophic cycle mate-bloodmeal-oviposition is responsible for the virus transmission; its abundance is the key for the planning of non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures that may eradicate the transmission risk and simultaneously avoid chemical ambient degradation. Meteorological parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures) and daily total rainfall were gathered from the weather stations network for the same dates and crossed with the standardized females’ abundance in a geographic information system (GIS). Mean capture and percentage of above average captures related to each variable are used as criteria to compute a threshold for each meteorological parameter; the difference of the mean capture above/below the threshold was statistically assessed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the meaningful thresholds for each parameter. The intersection of the maps of all the parameters obtained for each month show the evolution of the suitable meteorological conditions through the mosquito season, considered as May to October, although the first and last month are less relevant. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters – the land use/land cover classes most relevant in each month, the altitudes preferred and the most frequent distance to water bodies, a factor closely related with the mosquito biology. The maps produced with these results were crossed with the meteorological maps previously segmented, in order to get an index of suitability for the complex Culex pipiens evaluated all over the country, and its evolution from the beginning to the end of the mosquitoes season.

Keywords: suitability index, Culex pipiens, habitat evolution, GIS model

Procedia PDF Downloads 572