Search results for: agent based model

Authors: Jacob A. Braun

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This paper uses mathematical modeling to show the spread of Herpes Simplex type-2 with and without the usage of condoms in a college population. The model uses four differential equations to calculate the data for the simulation. The dt increment used is one week. It also runs based on a fixated period. The period chosen was five years to represent time spent in college. The average age of the individual is 21, once again to represent the age of someone in college. In the total population, there are almost two times as many women who have Herpes Simplex Type-2 as men. Additionally, Herpes Simplex Type-2 does not have a known cure. The goal of the model is to show how condom usage affects women’s chances of receiving the virus in the hope of being able to reduce the number of women infected. In the end, the model demonstrates that condoms offer significant protection to women from the virus. Since fewer women are infected with the virus when condoms are used, in turn, fewer males are infected. Since Herpes Simplex Type-2 affects the carrier for their whole life, a small decrease of infections could lead to large ramifications over time. Specifically, a small decrease of infections at a young age, such as college, could have a very big effect on the long-term number of people infected with the virus.

Keywords: college, condom, Herpes, mathematical modelling

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Authors: Hugo Badia

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This research answers which is the most suitable transit network structure to serve specific demand requirements in an increasing urban dispersion process. Two main approaches of network design are found in the literature. On the one hand, a traditional answer, widespread in our cities, that develops a high number of lines to connect most of origin-destination pairs by direct trips; an approach based on the idea that users averse to transfers. On the other hand, some authors advocate an alternative design characterized by simple networks where transfer is essential to complete most of trips. To answer which of them is the best option, we use a two-step methodology. First, by means of an analytical model, three basic network structures are compared: a radial scheme, starting point for the other two structures, a direct trip-based network, and a transfer-based one, which represent the two alternative transit network designs. The model optimizes the network configuration with regard to the total cost for each structure. For a scenario of dispersion, the best alternative is the structure with the minimum cost. This dispersion degree is defined in a simple way considering that only a central area attracts all trips. If this area is small, we have a high concentrated mobility pattern; if this area is too large, the city is highly decentralized. In this first step, we can determine the area of applicability for each structure in function to that urban dispersion degree. The analytical results show that a radial structure is suitable when the demand is so centralized, however, when this demand starts to scatter, new transit lines should be implemented to avoid transfers. If the urban dispersion advances, the introduction of more lines is no longer a good alternative, in this case, the best solution is a change of structure, from direct trips to a network based on transfers. The area of applicability of each network strategy is not constant, it depends on the characteristics of demand, city and transport technology. In the second step, we translate analytical results to a real case study by the relationship between the parameters of dispersion of the model and direct measures of dispersion in a real city. Two dimensions of the urban sprawl process are considered: concentration, defined by Gini coefficient, and centralization by area based centralization index. Once it is estimated the real dispersion degree, we are able to identify in which area of applicability the city is located. In summary, from a strategic point of view, we can obtain with this methodology which is the best network design approach for a city, comparing the theoretical results with the real dispersion degree.

Keywords: analytical network design model, network structure, public transport, urban dispersion

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Authors: Yingkun Huang, Li Guo, Zekang Lan, Kai Tian

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Hard disk drives (HDD) failure of the exascale supercomputing system may lead to service interruption and invalidate previous calculations, and it will cause permanent data loss. Therefore, initiating corrective actions before hard drive failures materialize is critical to the continued operation of jobs. In this paper, a highly accurate analysis model based on CNN-LSTM and oversampling technique was proposed, which can correctly predict the necessity of a disk replacement even ten days in advance. Generally, the learning-based method performs poorly on a training dataset with long-tail distribution, especially fault prediction is a very classic situation as the scarcity of failure data. To overcome the puzzle, a new oversampling was employed to augment the data, and then, an improved CNN-LSTM with the shortcut was built to learn more effective features. The shortcut transmits the results of the previous layer of CNN and is used as the input of the LSTM model after weighted fusion with the output of the next layer. Finally, a detailed, empirical comparison of 6 prediction methods is presented and discussed on a public dataset for evaluation. The experiments indicate that the proposed method predicts disk failure with 0.91 Precision, 0.91 Recall, 0.91 F-measure, and 0.90 MCC for 10 days prediction horizon. Thus, the proposed algorithm is an efficient algorithm for predicting HDD failure in supercomputing.

Keywords: HDD replacement, failure, CNN-LSTM, oversampling, prediction

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Authors: Ilham Benali, Nasser Hajji, Nawfel Acha

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The pharmaceutical sector is ongoing different constraints related to the Research and Development (R&D) costs, the patents extinction, the demand pressing, the regulatory requirement and the generics development, which drive leading firms in the sector to undergo technological change and to shift to biotechnological paradigm. Based on a large literature review, we present a background of innovation trajectory in pharmaceutical industry and reasons behind this technological transformation. Then we investigate the role that Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is playing in this revolution. In order to situate pharmaceutical firms in developing countries in this trajectory, and to examine the degree of their involvement in the innovation process, we did not find any previous empirical work or sources generating gathered data that allow us to analyze this phenomenon. Therefore, and for the case of Morocco, we tried to do it from scratch by gathering relevant data of the last five years from different sources. As a result, only about 4% of all innovative drugs that have access to the local market in the mentioned period are made locally which substantiates that the industrial model in pharmaceutical sector in developing countries is based on the 'license model'. Finally, we present another alternative, based on ICT use and big data tools that can allow developing countries to shift from status of simple consumers to active actors in the innovation process.

Keywords: biotechnologies, developing countries, innovation, information and communication technology, pharmaceutical firms

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Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

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Authors: Li Ma, Meishuang Ma, Mengying Huang

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The quality of construction projects reflects the credit and responsibilities of construction contractors for the owners and the whole society. Because the construction contractors master more relevant information about the entrusted engineering project under construction while the owners are in unfavorable position of gaining information, asymmetric information may lead the contractors act against the owners in order to pursue their own interests. Building a powerful motivation mechanism is the key to guarantee investor economic interests and the life and property of users in construction projects. Based on principal-agent theory and game theory, the authors develop relevant mathematical models to analyze and compare the contractor’s utility functions under different combinations of contracts’ explicit incentive mechanism and reputation’s implicit incentive mechanism aiming at finding out the conditions for incentive validity. The research concludes that the most rational motivation way is to combine the explicit and implicit incentive effects of both contracts and reputation mechanism, and puts forth some measures for problems on account of China’s current situation.

Keywords: construction contractors, contract, reputation, incentive mechanism

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Authors: Maryam Amiri, Ali Rajabzade, Gholam Reza Goudarzi, Reza Heidari

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Growth of technology and environmental changes are so fast and therefore, companies and industries have much tendency to do activities of R&D for active participation in the market and achievement to a competitive advantages. Aviation industry and its subdivisions have high level technology and play a special role in economic and social development of countries. So, in the aviation industry for getting new technologies and competing with other countries aviation industry, there is a requirement for capability in R&D. Considering of appropriate R&D strategy is supportive that day technologies of the world can be achieved. Biofuel technology is one of the newest technologies that has allocated discussion of the world in aviation industry to itself. The purpose of this research has been formulation of R&D strategy of biofuel technology in aviation industry of Iran. After reviewing of the theoretical foundations of the methods and R&D strategies, finally we classified R&D strategies in four main categories as follows: internal R&D, collaboration R&D, out sourcing R&D and in-house R&D. After a review of R&D strategies, a model for formulation of R&D strategy with the aim of developing biofuel technology in aviation industry in Iran was offered. With regard to the requirements and aracteristics of industry and technology in the model, we presented an integrated approach to R&D. Based on the techniques of decision making and analyzing of structured expert opinion, 4 R&D strategies for different scenarios and with the aim of developing biofuel technology in aviation industry in Iran were recommended. In this research, based on the common features of the implementation process of R&D, a logical classification of these methods are presented as R&D strategies. Then, R&D strategies and their characteristics was developed according to the experts. In the end, we introduced a model to consider the role of aviation industry and biofuel technology in R&D strategies. And lastly, for conditions and various scenarios of the aviation industry, we have formulated a specific R&D strategy.

Keywords: aviation industry, biofuel technology, R&D, R&D strategy

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Authors: Sandra Cecilia Bautista-Rodríguez, Vladimir Melgarejo

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Climate change, loss of ecosystems, increasing poverty, increasing marginalization of rural communities and declining food security are global issues that require urgent attention. In this regard, a great deal of research has focused on how agroecosystems respond to these challenges as they provide ecosystem services (ES) that lead to higher levels of resilience, adaptation, productivity and self-sufficiency. Hence, the valuing of ecosystem services plays an important role in the decision-making process for the design and management of agroecosystems. This paper aims to define the link between ecosystem service valuation methods and ES value dimensions in agroecosystems from ecological economics and agroecology. The method used to identify valuation methodologies was a literature review in the fields of Agroecology and Ecological Economics, based on a strategy of information search and classification. The conceptual framework of the work is based on the multidimensionality of value, considering the social, ecological, political, technological and economic dimensions. Likewise, the valuation process requires consideration of the ecosystem function associated with ES, such as regulation, habitat, production and information functions. In this way, valuation methods for ES in agroecosystems can integrate more than one value dimension and at least one ecosystem function. The results allow correlating the ecosystem functions with the ecosystem services valued, and the specific tools or models used, the dimensions and valuation methods. The main methodologies identified are multi-criteria valuation (1), deliberative - consultative valuation (2), valuation based on system dynamics modeling (3), valuation through energy or biophysical balances (4), valuation through fuzzy logic modeling (5), valuation based on agent-based modeling (6). Amongst the main conclusions, it is highlighted that the system dynamics modeling approach has a high potential for development in valuation processes, due to its ability to integrate other methods, especially multi-criteria valuation and energy and biophysical balances, to describe through causal cycles the interrelationships between ecosystem services, the dimensions of value in agroecosystems, thus showing the relationships between the value of ecosystem services and the welfare of communities. As for methodological challenges, it is relevant to achieve the integration of tools and models provided by different methods, to incorporate the characteristics of a complex system such as the agroecosystem, which allows reducing the limitations in the processes of valuation of ES.

Keywords: ecological economics, agroecosystems, ecosystem services, valuation of ecosystem services

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Authors: Zabihullah Mahdi, Khwaja Naweed Seddiqi

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Afghanistan is located in a tectonically complex and dynamic area, surrounded by rocks that originated on the mother continent of Gondwanaland. The northern Afghanistan basin, which runs along the country's northern border, has the potential for petroleum generation and accumulation. The Amu Darya basin has the largest petroleum potential in the region. Sedimentation occurred in the Amu Darya basin from the Jurassic to the Eocene epochs. Kashkari oil field is located in northern Afghanistan's Amu Darya basin. The field structure consists of a narrow northeast-southwest (NE-SW) anticline with two structural highs, the northwest limb being mild and the southeast limb being steep. The first oil production well in the Kashkari oil field was drilled in 1976, and a total of ten wells were drilled in the area between 1976 and 1979. The amount of original oil in place (OOIP) in the Kashkari oil field, based on the results of surveys and calculations conducted by research institutions, is estimated to be around 140 MMbbls. The objective of this study is to increase recoverable oil reserves in the Kashkari oil field through the implementation of low-salinity water flooding (LSWF) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique. The LSWF involved conducting a core flooding laboratory test consisting of four sequential steps with varying salinities. The test commenced with the use of formation water (FW) as the initial salinity, which was subsequently reduced to a salinity level of 0.1%. Afterwards, the numerical simulation model of core scale oil recovery by LSWF was designed by Computer Modelling Group’s General Equation Modeler (CMG-GEM) software to evaluate the applicability of the technology to the field scale. Next, the Kahskari oil field simulation model was designed, and the LSWF method was applied to it. To obtain reasonable results, laboratory settings (temperature, pressure, rock, and oil characteristics) are designed as far as possible based on the condition of the Kashkari oil field, and several injection and production patterns are investigated. The relative permeability of oil and water in this study was obtained using Corey’s equation. In the Kashkari oilfield simulation model, three models: 1. Base model (with no water injection), 2. FW injection model, and 3. The LSW injection model were considered for the evaluation of the LSWF effect on oil recovery. Based on the results of the LSWF laboratory experiment and computer simulation analysis, the oil recovery increased rapidly after the FW was injected into the core. Subsequently, by injecting 1% salinity water, a gradual increase of 4% oil can be observed. About 6.4% of the field, is produced by the application of the LSWF technique. The results of LSWF (salinity 0.1%) on the Kashkari oil field suggest that this technology can be a successful method for developing Kashkari oil production.

Keywords: low salinity water flooding, immiscible displacement, kashkari oil field, twophase flow, numerical reservoir simulation model

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Authors: S. Ping Ho, R. Dahal

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The global economy has drastically changed how firms operate and compete. Although the construction industry is ‘local’ by its nature, the internationalization of the construction industry has become an inevitable reality. As a result of global competition, staying domestic is no longer safe from competition and, on the contrary, to grow and become an MNE (multi-national enterprise) becomes one of the important strategies for a firm to survive in the global competition. For the successful entrance into competing markets, the firms need to re-define their competitive advantages and re-identify the sources of the competitive advantages. A firm’s initiation of internationalization is not necessarily a result of strategic planning but also involves certain idiosyncratic events that pave the path leading to a firm’s internationalization. For example, a local firm’s incidental or unintentional collaboration with an MNE can become the initiating point of its internationalization process. However, because of the intensive competition in today’s global movement, many firms were compelled to initiate their internationalization as a strategic response to the competition. Understandingly stepping in in the process of internationalization and appropriately implementing the strategies (in the process) at different stages lead the construction firms to a successful internationalization journey. This study is carried out to develop a model of the internationalization process, which derives appropriate strategies that the construction firms can implement at each stage. The proposed model integrates two major and complementary views of internationalization and expresses the dynamic process of internationalization in three stages, which are the pre-international (PRE) stage, the foreign direct investment (FDI) stage, and the multi-national enterprise (MNE) stage. The strategies implied in the proposed model are derived, focusing on capability building, market locations, and entry modes based on the resource-based views: value, rareness, imitability, and substitutability (VRIN). With the proposed dynamic process model the potential construction firms which are willing to expand their business market area can be benefitted. Strategies for internationalization, such as core competence strategy, market selection, partner selection, and entry mode strategy, can be derived from the proposed model. The internationalization process is expressed in two different forms. First, we discuss the construction internationalization process, identify the driving factor/s of the process, and explain the strategy formation in the process. Second, we define the stages of internationalization along the process and the corresponding strategies in each stage. The strategies may include how to exploit existing advantages for the competition at the current stage and develop or explore additional advantages appropriate for the next stage. Particularly, the additionally developed advantages will then be accumulated and drive forward the firm’s stage of internationalization, which will further determine the subsequent strategies, and so on and so forth, spiraling up the stages of a higher degree of internationalization. However, the formation of additional strategies for the next stage does not happen automatically, and the strategy evolution is based on the firm’s dynamic capabilities.

Keywords: construction industry, dynamic capabilities, internationalization process, internationalization strategies, strategic management

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Authors: Lateef Damilare Olusesi

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This study will attempt to add to the limited literature on Nigerian Hospitality by exploring the role of sustainable leadership and green human resource management practices. The study will identify leadership perception of sustainable leadership practices, key perceptions based on behaviours, attributes, and skills if they differ across the hospitality sector in Nigeria, and how the identified perception compares to those found in previous research. Also, it explores the leadership competencies most valued in the Nigerian hospitality industry. Furthermore, assesses the benefits and risks of sustainability practices in the Nigerian hospitality industry; this will raise awareness for long-term sustainable practices through integrating renewable energy systems, reducing water and energy consumption, minimizing waste, and promoting an eco-conscious environment for both guests and employees. This will address challenges faced by all levels of management on sustainability practices, and how the influence of these practices will help the organisation to achieve its stated goals and remain competitive. Lastly, the study will propose a multi-level perception competence model (PCM) that contributes to the understanding of sustainable leadership. This competencies model will integrate knowledge, skills, and attitudes of sustainable leadership paradigms to establish a proposed multi-level model that will cut across top, middle, and lower management within the hospitality industry in Nigeria. Competencies in sustainability comprise knowledge, skills, and attitudes that facilitate effective task execution concerning real-world sustainability issues and opportunities. This model would facilitate sustainable leadership policies and strategies that are adaptable, collaborative, and centered on sustainability practices, prioritizing skills, and long-term sustainability objectives. Therefore, the specific objectives are; To examine the perception of sustainable leadership within the Hospitality industry. To identify the sustainable leadership competencies that are effective in the Hospitality industry. To investigate top, middle, and lower management's key challenges in adopting sustainable leadership.To develop a multi-level competencies-based model that contributes to the understanding of sustainable leadership Hospitality industry.

Keywords: sustainable leadership, green human resource mnagement, leadership, hospitality

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Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

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Authors: Pouya Molana, Zeinab Alimohammadi

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Determining wind wave characteristics is essential for implementing projects related to Coastal and Marine engineering such as designing coastal and marine structures, estimating sediment transport rates and coastal erosion rates in order to predict significant wave height (H_s), this study applies the third generation spectral wave model, Mike 21 SW, along with CEM model. For SW model calibration and verification, two data sets of meteorology and wave spectroscopy are used. The model was exposed to time-varying wind power and the results showed that difference ratio mean, standard deviation of difference ratio and correlation coefficient in SW model for H_s parameter are 1.102, 0.279 and 0.983, respectively. Whereas, the difference ratio mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient in The Choice Experiment Method (CEM) for the same parameter are 0.869, 1.317 and 0.8359, respectively. Comparing these expected results it is revealed that the Choice Experiment Method CEM has more errors in comparison to MIKE 21 SW third generation spectral wave model and higher correlation coefficient does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.

Keywords: MIKE 21 SW, CEM method, significant wave height, difference ratio

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Authors: H. Ucar, U. Aridogan

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Composite structures become intriguing for the design of aerospace, automotive and marine applications due to weight reduction, corrosion resistance and radar signature reduction demands and requirements. Studies on piezoelectric ceramic transducers (PZT) for diagnostics and health monitoring have gained attention for their sensing capabilities, however PZT structures are prone to fail in case of heavy operational loads. In this paper, we develop a piezo-based Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) composite finite element (FE) model, validate with experimental setup, and identify the applicability and limitations of PZTs for a marine application. A case study is conducted to assess the piezo-based sensing capabilities in a representative marine composite structure. A FE model of the composite structure combined with PZT patches is developed, afterwards the response and functionality are investigated according to the sea conditions. Results of this study clearly indicate the blockers and critical aspects towards industrialization and wide-range use of PZTs for marine composite applications.

Keywords: FRP composite, operational challenges, piezoelectric transducers, FE modeling

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Authors: Josiah Damisa, Michelle Louise Richardson, Morenike Adewuyi

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Lower back pain is a significant cause of disability worldwide and associated with great implications in terms of the well-being of affected individuals and society as a whole due to its undeniable socio-economic impact. With its prevalence on the increase as a result of an aging global population, the need for novel forms of pain management is ever paramount. This review aims to provide further insight into current research regarding a role for the endocannabinoid signaling pathway as a target in the treatment of chronic pain, with particular emphasis on its potential use as part of the treatment of lower back pain. Potential advantages and limitations of cannabis-based medicines over other forms of analgesia currently licensed for medical use are discussed in addition to areas that require ongoing consideration and research. To evaluate the efficacy of cannabis-based medicines in chronic pain, studies pertaining to the role of medical cannabis in chronic disease were reviewed. Standard searches of PubMed, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases were undertaken with peer-reviewed journal articles reviewed based on the indication for pain management, cannabis treatment modality used and study outcomes. Multiple studies suggest an emerging role for cannabis-based medicines as therapeutic agents in the treatment of chronic back pain. A potential synergistic effect has also been purported if these medicines are co-administered with opiate analgesia due to the similarity of the opiate and endocannabinoid signaling pathways. However, whilst recent changes to legislation in the United Kingdom mean that cannabis is now licensed for medicinal use on NHS prescription for a number of chronic health conditions, concerns remain as to the efficacy and safety of cannabis-based medicines. Research is lacking into both their side effect profiles and the long-term effects of cannabis use. Legal and ethical considerations to the use of these products in standardized medical practice also persist due to the notoriety of cannabis as a drug of abuse. Despite this, cannabis is beginning to gain traction as an alternative or even complementary drug to opiates, with some preclinical studies showing opiate-sparing effects. Whilst there is a paucity of clinical trials in this field, there is scope for cannabinoids to be successful anti-nociceptive agents in managing chronic back pain. The ultimate aim would be to utilize cannabis-based medicines as alternative or complementary therapies, thereby reducing opiate over-reliance and providing hope to individuals who have exhausted all other forms of standard treatment.

Keywords: endocannabinoids, cannabis-based medicines, chronic pain, lower back pain

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Authors: Kevin R. Wilson, Roger Mantie

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Community arts-based learning and participatory education are pedagogical techniques that serve to be advantageous for students, curriculum development, and local communities. Using an interpretive approach to examine the significance of this arts-informed research in relation to the eight ‘design imperatives’ proposed as the new model for measuring quality in scholarship for Arizona State University as ‘A New American University’, the purpose of this study was to investigate personal, social, and cultural benefits resulting from student engagement in interdisciplinary community-based projects. Students from a graduate level music education class at the ASU Tempe campus (n=7) teamed with students from an undergraduate level community development class at the ASU Downtown Phoenix campus (n=14) to plan, facilitate, and evaluate seven community-based projects in several locations around the Phoenix-metro area. Data was collected using photo evidence, student reports, and evaluative measures designed by the students. The effectiveness of each project was measured in terms of their ability to meet the eight design imperatives to: 1) leverage place; 2) transform society; 3) value entrepreneurship; 4) conduct use-inspired research; 5) enable student success; 6) fuse intellectual disciplines; 7) be socially embedded; and 8) engage globally. Results indicated that this community arts-based project sufficiently captured the essence of each of these eight imperatives. Implications for how the nature of this interdisciplinary initiative allowed for the eight imperatives to manifest are provided, and project success is expounded upon in relation to utility of each imperative. Discussion is also given for how this type of service learning project formatted within the ‘New American University’ model for measuring quality in academia can be a beneficial pedagogical tool in higher education.

Keywords: community arts-based learning, participatory education, pedagogy, service learning

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Authors: Nadia Adnan, Muhammad Mohsin Raza, Latha Ravindran

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Based on the principles above, the study presents an economic model of food waste for consumers, intermediaries, and producers. We discriminate between purchasing and selling, purchases versus customers consumption, and gross output versus sales for each intermediary. To compensate for waste at each level of the supply chain, agents must charge higher sales prices. The research model can produce more accurate predictions about how actions (public regulations or private efforts) to reduce food waste impact markets, including indirect (cascading) effects. With a formal model, researchers demonstrate the uniqueness of these interaction effects and simulate an empirical model calibrated to market characteristics and waste rates in Saudi Arabia. Researchers demonstrate that the effects of waste reduction differ per commodity, depending on supply and demand elasticities, degree of openness to international commerce, and the beginning rates of food loss and waste at each level of the value chain. Because of the consequential effects related to the supply chain, initiatives to minimize food waste will be strengthened in some circumstances and partially countered in others.

Keywords: food loss, food waste, supply chain management, Saudi Arabia, food supply

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

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Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Mohamed A. Sullabi

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The importance of the formal specification in the software life cycle is barely concealing to anyone. Formal specifications use mathematical notation to describe the properties of information system precisely, without unduly constraining the way in how these properties are achieved. Having a correct and quality software specification is not easy task. This study concerns with how a group of rectifiers can communicate with each other and work to prepare and produce a correct formal software specification. WBCS has been implemented based mainly in the proposed supported cooperative work model and a survey conducted on the existing Webbased collaborative writing tools. This paper aims to assess the feasibility of executing the web-based collaboration process using WBCS. The purpose of conducting this test is to test the system as a whole for functionality and fitness for use based on the evaluation test plan.

Keywords: formal methods, formal specifications, collaborative writing, usability testing

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

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The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: D. Habibinia, M. R. Feyzi

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Nowadays, specialized software is vastly used to verify the performance of an electric machine prototype by evaluating a model of the system. These models mainly consist of electrical parameters such as inductances and resistances. However, when the operating frequency of the device is above one kHz, the effect of parasitic capacitances grows significantly. In this paper, a software-based procedure is introduced to model these capacitances within the electromagnetic simulation of the device. The case study is a high-frequency high-voltage pulse transformer. The Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software with coupled field analysis is used in this method.

Keywords: finite element analysis, parasitic capacitance, pulse transformer, high frequency

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Authors: Franca De Sarno, Alfonso Maria Ponsiglione, Enza Torino

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Recent advances in diagnostic imaging technology have significantly contributed to a better understanding of specific changes associated with diseases progression. Among different imaging modalities, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) represents a noninvasive medical diagnostic technique, which shows low sensitivity and long acquisition time and it can discriminate between healthy and diseased tissues by providing 3D data. In order to improve the enhancement of MRI signals, some imaging exams require intravenous administration of contrast agents (CAs). Recently, emerging research reports a progressive deposition of these drugs, in particular, gadolinium-based contrast agents (GBCAs), in the body many years after multiple MRI scans. These discoveries confirm the need to have a biocompatible system able to boost a clinical relevant Gd-chelate. To this aim, several approaches based on engineered nanostructures have been proposed to overcome the common limitations of conventional CAs, such as the insufficient signal-to-noise ratios due to relaxivity and poor safety profile. In particular, nanocarriers, labeling or loading with CAs, capable of carrying high payloads of CAs have been developed. Currently, there’s no a comprehensive understanding of the thermodynamic contributions enable of boosting the efficacy of conventional CAs by using biopolymers matrix. Thus, considering the importance of MRI in diagnosing diseases, here it is reported a successful example of the next generation of these drugs where the commercial gadolinium chelate is incorporate into a biopolymer nanostructure, formed by cross-linked hyaluronic acid (HA), with improved relaxation properties. In addition, they are highlighted the basic principles ruling biopolymer-CA interactions in the perspective of their influence on the relaxometric properties of the CA by adopting a multidisciplinary experimental approach. On the basis of these discoveries, it is clear that the main point consists in increasing the rigidification of readily-available Gd-CAs within the biopolymer matrix by controlling the water dynamics, the physicochemical interactions, and the polymer conformations. In the end, the acquired knowledge about polymer-CA systems has been applied to develop of Gd-based HA nanoparticles with enhanced relaxometric properties.

Keywords: biopolymers, MRI, nanoparticles, contrast agent

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Authors: Mesfin Nigussie

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The objectives of the study were to identify factors affecting rural households’ willingness to install biogas plant and amount willingness to pay in order to examine determinants of effective demand for biogas technology. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select 120 respondents for the study. The binary probit regression model was employed to identify factors affecting rural households’ decision to install biogas technology. The probit model result revealed that household size, total household income, access to extension services related to biogas, access to credit service, proximity to water sources, perception of households about the quality of biogas, perception index about attributes of biogas, perception of households about installation cost of biogas and availability of energy source were statistically significant in determining household’s decision to install biogas. Tobit model was employed to examine determinants of rural household’s amount of willingness to pay. Based on the model result, age of the household head, total annual income of the household, access to extension service and availability of other energy source were significant variables that influence willingness to pay. Providing due considerations for extension services, availability of credit or subsidy, improving the quality of biogas technology design and minimizing cost of installation by using locally available materials are the main suggestions of this research that help to create effective demand for biogas technology.

Keywords: biogas technology, effective demand, probit model, tobit model, willingnes to pay

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Authors: Cedillo Ortiz Cesar Isaac, Marañón-Ruiz Virginia-Francisca, Lozano-Alvarez Juan Antonio, Jáuregui-Rincón Juan, Roger Chiu Zarate

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Introduction: The contamination of water with the azo-dye is a problem worldwide as although wastewater contaminate is treated in a municipal sewage system, still contain a considerable amount of dyes. In the present, there are different processes denominated tertiary method in which it is possible to lower the concentration of the dye. One of these methods is by adsorption onto various materials which can be organic or inorganic materials. The xanthan is a biomaterial as removal agents to decrease the dye content in aqueous solution. The Zimm-Bragg model described the experimental isotherms obtained when this biopolymer was used in the removal of textile dyes. Nevertheless, it was not established if a possible correlation between dye structure and removal efficiency exists. In this sense, the principal objective of this report is to propose a qualitative relationship between the structure of three azo-dyes (Congo Red (CR), Methyl Red (MR) and Methyl Orange (MO)) and their removal efficiency from aqueous environment when xanthan are used as dye sequestering agents. Methods: The dyes were subjected to different pH and ionic strength values to obtain the conditions of maximum dye removal. Afterward, these conditions were used to perform the adsorption isotherm as was reported in the previous study in our group. The Zimm-Bragg model was used to describe the experimental data and the parameters of nucleation (Ku) and cooperativity (U) were obtained by optimization using the R statistical software. The spectra from UV-Visible (aqueous solution), Infrared absorption and Raman spectroscopies (dry samples) were obtained from the biopolymer-dye complex. Results: The removal percent with xanthan in each dye are as follows: with CR had 99.98 % when the pH is 12 and ionic strength is 10.12, with MR had 84.79 % when the pH is 9.5 and ionic strength is 43 and finally the MO had 30 % in pH 4 and 72. It can be seen that when xanthan is used to remove the dyes, exists a lower dependence between structure and removal efficiency. This may be due to the different tendency to form aggregates of each dye. This aggregation capacity and the charge of each dye resulting from the pH and ionic strength values of aqueous solutions are key factors in the dye removal. The experimental isotherm of MR was only that adequately described by Zimm-Bragg model. Because with the CR had the 100 % of remove thus is very difficult obtain de experimental isotherm and finally MO had results fluctuating and therefore was impossible get the accurate data. Conclusions: The study of the removal of three dyes with xanthan as dye sequestering agents suggests that aggregation capacity of dyes and the charge resulting from structural characteristics such as molecular weight and functional groups have a relationship with the removal efficiency. Acknowledgements: We are gratefully acknowledged support for this project by Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, México (CONACyT, Grant No. 632694.)

Keywords: adsorption, azo dyes, xanthan gum, Zimm Bragg theory

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Authors: Hongyan Chen, Megan Jobson, Andrew J. Masters, Maria Gonzalez-Miquel, Simon Halstead, Mayri Diaz de Rienzo

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Ionic liquids offer excellent advantages over conventional solvents for industrial extraction of metals from aqueous solutions, where such extraction processes bring opportunities for recovery, reuse, and recycling of valuable resources and more sustainable production pathways. Recent research on the use of ionic liquids for extraction confirms their high selectivity and low volatility, but there is relatively little focus on how their properties can be best exploited in practice. This work addresses gaps in research on process modelling and simulation, to support development, design, and optimisation of these processes, focusing on the separation of the highly similar transition metals, cobalt, and nickel. The study exploits published experimental results, as well as new experimental results, relating to the separation of Co and Ni using trihexyl (tetradecyl) phosphonium chloride. This extraction agent is attractive because it is cheaper, more stable and less toxic than fluorinated hydrophobic ionic liquids. This process modelling work concerns selection and/or development of suitable models for the physical properties, distribution coefficients, for mass transfer phenomena, of the extractor unit and of the multi-stage extraction flowsheet. The distribution coefficient model for cobalt and HCl represents an anion exchange mechanism, supported by the literature and COSMO-RS calculations. Parameters of the distribution coefficient models are estimated by fitting the model to published experimental extraction equilibrium results. The mass transfer model applies Newman’s hard sphere model. Diffusion coefficients in the aqueous phase are obtained from the literature, while diffusion coefficients in the ionic liquid phase are fitted to dynamic experimental results. The mass transfer area is calculated from the surface to mean diameter of liquid droplets of the dispersed phase, estimated from the Weber number inside the extractor. New experiments measure the interfacial tension between the aqueous and ionic phases. The empirical models for predicting the density and viscosity of solutions under different metal loadings are also fitted to new experimental data. The extractor is modelled as a continuous stirred tank reactor with mass transfer between the two phases and perfect phase separation of the outlet flows. A multistage separation flowsheet simulation is set up to replicate a published experiment and compare model predictions with the experimental results. This simulation model is implemented in gPROMS software for dynamic process simulation. The results of single stage and multi-stage flowsheet simulations are shown to be in good agreement with the published experimental results. The estimated diffusion coefficient of cobalt in the ionic liquid phase is in reasonable agreement with published data for the diffusion coefficients of various metals in this ionic liquid. A sensitivity study with this simulation model demonstrates the usefulness of the models for process design. The simulation approach has potential to be extended to account for other metals, acids, and solvents for process development, design, and optimisation of extraction processes applying ionic liquids for metals separations, although a lack of experimental data is currently limiting the accuracy of models within the whole framework. Future work will focus on process development more generally and on extractive separation of rare earths using ionic liquids.

Keywords: distribution coefficient, mass transfer, COSMO-RS, flowsheet simulation, phosphonium

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Authors: Ariel Barel, Rotem Manor, Alfred M. Bruckstein

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We present a probabilistic gathering algorithm for agents that can only detect the presence of other agents in front of or behind them. The agents act in the plane and are identical and indistinguishable, oblivious, and lack any means of direct communication. They do not have a common frame of reference in the plane and choose their orientation (direction of possible motion) at random. The analysis of the gathering process assumes that the agents act synchronously in selecting random orientations that remain fixed during each unit time-interval. Two algorithms are discussed. The first one assumes discrete jumps based on the sensing results given the randomly selected motion direction, and in this case, extensive experimental results exhibit probabilistic clustering into a circular region with radius equal to the step-size in time proportional to the number of agents. The second algorithm assumes agents with continuous sensing and motion, and in this case, we can prove gathering into a very small circular region in finite expected time.

Keywords: control, decentralized, gathering, multi-agent, simple sensors

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Authors: Lin Zhao, Hanqiao Jiang, Junjian Li

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Polymers injected into elevated-temperature reservoirs inevitably suffer from thermal degradation, resulting in severe viscosity loss and poor flooding performance. However, for polymer flooding in such reservoirs, present simulators fail to provide accurate results for lack of description on thermal degradation. In light of this, the objectives of this paper are to provide a simulation model for polymer flooding with thermal degradation and study the effect of thermal degradation on polymer flooding in elevated-temperature reservoirs. Firstly, a thermal degradation experiment was conducted to obtain the degradation law of polymer concentration and viscosity. Different types of polymers degraded in the Thermo tank with elevated temperatures. Afterward, based on the obtained law, a streamline-assistant model was proposed to simulate the degradation process under in-situ flow conditions. Model validation was performed with field data from a well group of an offshore oilfield. Finally, the effect of thermal degradation on polymer flooding was studied using the proposed model. Experimental results showed that the polymer concentration remained unchanged, while the viscosity degraded exponentially with time after degradation. The polymer viscosity was functionally dependent on the polymer degradation time (PDT), which represented the elapsed time started from the polymer particle injection. Tracing the real flow path of polymer particle was required. Therefore, the presented simulation model was streamline-assistant. Equation of PDT vs. time of flight (TOF) along streamline was built by the law of polymer particle transport. Based on the field polymer sample and dynamic data, the new model proved its accuracy. Study of degradation effect on polymer flooding indicated: (1) the viscosity loss increased with TOF exponentially in the main body of polymer-slug and remained constant in the slug front; (2) the responding time of polymer flooding was delayed, but the effective time was prolonged; (3) the breakthrough of subsequent water was eased; (4) the capacity of polymer adjusting injection profile was diminished; (5) the incremental recovery was reduced significantly. In general, the effect of thermal degradation on polymer flooding performance was rather negative. This paper provides a more comprehensive insight into polymer thermal degradation in both the physical process and field application. The proposed simulation model offers an effective means for simulating the polymer flooding process with thermal degradation. The negative effect of thermal degradation suggests that the polymer thermal stability should be given full consideration when designing polymer flooding project in elevated-temperature reservoirs.

Keywords: polymer flooding, elevated-temperature reservoir, thermal degradation, numerical simulation

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

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In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software

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Authors: Zabihullah Mahdi, Khwaja Naweed Seddiqi

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Afghanistan is located in a tectonically complex and dynamic area, surrounded by rocks that originated on the mother continent of Gondwanaland. The northern Afghanistan basin, which runs along the country's northern border, has the potential for petroleum generation and accumulation. The Amu Darya basin has the largest petroleum potential in the region. Sedimentation occurred in the Amu Darya basin from the Jurassic to the Eocene epochs. Kashkari oil field is located in northern Afghanistan's Amu Darya basin. The field structure consists of a narrow northeast-southwest (NE-SW) anticline with two structural highs, the northwest limb being mild and the southeast limb being steep. The first oil production well in the Kashkari oil field was drilled in 1976, and a total of ten wells were drilled in the area between 1976 and 1979. The amount of original oil in place (OOIP) in the Kashkari oil field, based on the results of surveys and calculations conducted by research institutions, is estimated to be around 140 MMbbls. The objective of this study is to increase recoverable oil reserves in the Kashkari oil field through the implementation of low-salinity water flooding (LSWF) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique. The LSWF involved conducting a core flooding laboratory test consisting of four sequential steps with varying salinities. The test commenced with the use of formation water (FW) as the initial salinity, which was subsequently reduced to a salinity level of 0.1%. Afterward, the numerical simulation model of core scale oil recovery by LSWF was designed by Computer Modelling Group’s General Equation Modeler (CMG-GEM) software to evaluate the applicability of the technology to the field scale. Next, the Kahskari oil field simulation model was designed, and the LSWF method was applied to it. To obtain reasonable results, laboratory settings (temperature, pressure, rock, and oil characteristics) are designed as far as possible based on the condition of the Kashkari oil field, and several injection and production patterns are investigated. The relative permeability of oil and water in this study was obtained using Corey’s equation. In the Kashkari oilfield simulation model, three models: 1. Base model (with no water injection), 2. FW injection model, and 3. The LSW injection model was considered for the evaluation of the LSWF effect on oil recovery. Based on the results of the LSWF laboratory experiment and computer simulation analysis, the oil recovery increased rapidly after the FW was injected into the core. Subsequently, by injecting 1% salinity water, a gradual increase of 4% oil can be observed. About 6.4% of the field is produced by the application of the LSWF technique. The results of LSWF (salinity 0.1%) on the Kashkari oil field suggest that this technology can be a successful method for developing Kashkari oil production.

Keywords: low-salinity water flooding, immiscible displacement, Kashkari oil field, two-phase flow, numerical reservoir simulation model

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Authors: Amir Sharifi Miavaghi

Abstract:

It is believed recombination mechnisms in graphene-bonded perovskite solar cells based on numerical model in which doped-graphene structures are employed as anode/cathode bonding semiconductor. Moreover, th‌‌‌‌e da‌‌‌‌‌rk-li‌‌‌‌‌ght c‌‌‌‌urrent d‌‌‌‌ens‌‌‌‌ity-vo‌‌‌‌‌‌‌ltage density-voltage cu‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌rves are investigated by regression analysis. L‌‌‌oss m‌‌‌‌echa‌‌‌‌nisms suc‌‌‌h a‌‌‌‌‌‌s ba‌‌‌‌ck c‌‌‌ontact b‌‌‌‌‌arrier, d‌‌‌‌eep surface defect i‌‌‌‌n t‌‌‌‌‌‌‌he adsorbent la‌‌‌yer is det‌‌‌‌‌ermined b‌‌‌y adapting th‌‌‌e sim‌‌‌‌‌ulated ce‌‌‌‌‌ll perfor‌‌‌‌‌mance to t‌‌‌‌he measure‌‌‌‌ments us‌‌‌‌ing the diffe‌‌‌‌‌‌rential evolu‌‌‌‌‌tion of th‌‌‌‌e global optimization algorithm. T‌‌‌‌he performance of t‌‌‌he c‌‌‌‌ell i‌‌‌‌n the connection proc‌‌‌‌‌ess incl‌‌‌‌‌‌udes J-V cur‌‌‌‌‌‌ves that are examined at di‌‌‌‌‌fferent tempe‌‌‌‌‌‌‌ratures an‌‌‌d op‌‌‌‌en cir‌‌‌‌cuit vol‌‌‌‌tage (V) und‌‌‌‌er differ‌‌‌‌‌ent light intensities as a function of temperature. Ba‌‌‌‌sed o‌‌‌n t‌‌‌he prop‌‌‌‌osed nu‌‌‌‌‌merical mod‌‌‌‌el a‌‌‌‌nd the acquired lo‌‌‌‌ss mecha‌‌‌‌‌‌nisms, our approach can be used to improve the efficiency of the solar cell further. Due to the high demand for alternative energy sources, solar cells are good alternatives for energy storage using the photovoltaic phenomenon.

Keywords: numerical model, recombination mechanism, graphen, perovskite solarcell

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