Search results for: fuzzy set Models

Authors: Frederic Jumelle, Kelvin So, Didan Deng

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In this paper, we are introducing a model of artificial general intelligence (AGI), the functional neural network (FNN), for modeling human decision-making processes. The FNN is composed of multiple artificial mirror neurons (AMN) racing in the network. Each AMN has a similar structure programmed independently by the users and composed of an intention wheel, a motor core, and a sensory core racing at a specific velocity. The mathematics of the node’s formulation and the racing mechanism of multiple nodes in the network will be discussed, and the group decision process with fuzzy logic and the transformation of these conceptual methods into practical methods of simulation and in operations will be developed. Eventually, we will describe some possible future research directions in the fields of finance, education, and medicine, including the opportunity to design an intelligent learning agent with application in AGI. We believe that FNN has a promising potential to transform the way we can compute decision-making and lead to a new generation of AI chips for seamless human-machine interactions (HMI).

Keywords: neural computing, human machine interation, artificial general intelligence, decision processing

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The essential purpose is to present the good fatigue crack propagation model describing a stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior in a rolled magnesium alloy, AZ31, under various load ratio conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments were carried out in laboratory air under four conditions of load ratio, R, using AZ31 to investigate the crack growth behavior. The stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior was analyzed using an interpolation of random variable, Z, introduced to an empirical fatigue crack propagation model. The empirical fatigue models used in this study are Paris-Erdogan model, Walker model, Forman model, and modified Forman model. It was found that the random variable is useful in describing the stochastic fatigue crack growth behaviors under various load ratio conditions. The good probabilistic model describing a stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior under various load ratio conditions was also proposed.

Keywords: magnesium alloys, fatigue crack propagation model, load ratio, interpolation of random variable

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Authors: Min-Woo Kim, Ok-Kyun Na, Jun-Ho Byun, Jong-Hwan Park, Seung-Hwa Yang, Joon-Hong Park, Young-Chul Park

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This study is focused on the comparative analysis and improvement to grasp the flow characteristic of the Anti-Splash Device located under the P/V Valve and new concept design models using the CFD analysis and Artificial Neural Network. The P/V valve located upper deck to solve the pressure rising and vacuum condition of inner tank of the liquid cargo ships occurred oil outflow accident by transverse and longitudinal sloshing force. Anti-Splash Device is fitted to improve and prevent this problem in the shipbuilding industry. But the oil outflow accidents are still reported by ship owners. Thus, four types of new design model are presented by study. Then, comparative analysis is conducted with new models and existing model. Mostly the key criterion of this problem is flux in the outlet of the Anti-Splash Device. Therefore, the flow and velocity are grasped by transient analysis. And then it decided optimum model and design parameters to develop model. Later, it needs to develop an Anti-Splash Device by Flow Test to get certification and verification using experiment equipment.

Keywords: anti-splash device, P/V valve, sloshing, artificial neural network

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Authors: T. Almutairi, K. Naudi, N. Nairn, X. Ju, B. Eng, J. Whitters, A. Ayoub

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Purpose: At present Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) imaging does not record dental morphology accurately due to the scattering produced by metallic restorations and the reported magnification. The aim of this pilot study is the development and validation of a new method for the replacement of the distorted dentition of CBCT scans with the dental image captured by the digital intraoral camera. Materials and Method: Six dried skulls with orthodontics brackets on the teeth were used in this study. Three intra-oral markers made of dental stone were constructed which were attached to orthodontics brackets. The skulls were CBCT scanned, and occlusal surface was captured using TRIOS® 3D intraoral scanner. Marker based and surface based registrations were performed to fuse the digital intra-oral scan(IOS) into the CBCT models. This produced a new composite digital model of the skull and dentition. The skulls were scanned again using the commercially accurate Laser Faro® arm to produce the 'gold standard' model for the assessment of the accuracy of the developed method. The accuracy of the method was assessed by measuring the distance between the occlusal surfaces of the new composite model and the 'gold standard' 3D model of the skull and teeth. The procedure was repeated a week apart to measure the reproducibility of the method. Results: The results showed no statistically significant difference between the measurements on the first and second occasions. The absolute mean distance between the new composite model and the laser model ranged between 0.11 mm to 0.20 mm. Conclusion: The dentition of the CBCT can be accurately replaced with the dental image captured by the intra-oral scanner to create a composite model. This method will improve the accuracy of orthognathic surgical prediction planning, with the final goal of the fabrication of a physical occlusal wafer without to guide orthognathic surgery and eliminate the need for dental impression.

Keywords: orthognathic surgery, superimposition, models, cone beam computed tomography

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Authors: Maria Fontenele, Claude-Gilles Dussap, Vincent Dumouilla, Baptiste Boit

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Roquette Frères is a producer of plant-based ingredients that employs many processes to extract relevant molecules and often transforms them through chemical and physical processes to create desired ingredients with specific functionalities. In this context, Roquette encounters numerous multi-component complex systems in their processes, including fibers, proteins, and carbohydrates, in an aqueous environment. To develop, control, and optimize both new and old processes, Roquette aims to develop new in silico tools. Currently, Roquette uses process modelling tools which include specific thermodynamic models and is willing to develop computational methodologies such as molecular dynamics simulations to gain insights into the complex interactions in such complex media, and especially hydrogen bonding interactions. The issue at hand concerns aqueous mixtures of polyols with high dry matter content. The polyols mannitol and sorbitol molecules are diastereoisomers that have nearly identical chemical structures but very different physicochemical properties: for example, the solubility of sorbitol in water is 2.5 kg/kg of water, while mannitol has a solubility of 0.25 kg/kg of water at 25°C. Therefore, predicting liquid-solid equilibrium properties in this case requires sophisticated solution models that cannot be based solely on chemical group contributions, knowing that for mannitol and sorbitol, the chemical constitutive groups are the same. Recognizing the significance of solvation phenomena in polyols, the GePEB (Chemical Engineering, Applied Thermodynamics, and Biosystems) team at Institut Pascal has developed the COSMO-UCA model, which has the structural advantage of using quantum mechanics tools to predict formation and phase equilibrium properties. In this work, we use molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the behavior of polyols in aqueous solution. Specifically, we employ simulations to compute essential metrics such as radial distribution functions and hydrogen bond autocorrelation functions. Our findings illuminate a fundamental contrast: sorbitol and mannitol exhibit disparate hydrogen bond lifetimes within aqueous environments. This observation serves as a cornerstone in elucidating the divergent physicochemical properties inherent to each compound, shedding light on the nuanced interplay between their molecular structures and water interactions. We also present a methodology to predict the physicochemical properties of complex solutions, taking as sole input the three-dimensional structure of the molecules in the medium. Finally, by developing knowledge models, we represent some physicochemical properties of aqueous solutions of sorbitol and mannitol.

Keywords: COSMO models, hydrogen bond, molecular dynamics, thermodynamics

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

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Authors: Rezvan Khavari

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The Zagros fold-thrust belt in SW Iran is a part of the Alpine-Himalayan system which consists of a variety of structures with different sizes or geometries. The study area is Chamshir Dam, which is located on the Zohreh River, 20 km southeast of Gachsaran City (southwest Iran). The satellite images are valuable means available to geologists for locating geological or geomorphological features expressing regional fault or fracture systems, therefore, the satellite images were used for structural analysis of the Chamshir dam area. As well, using the DEM and geological maps, 3D Models of the area have been constructed. Then, based on these models, all the acquired fracture traces data were integrated in Geographic Information System (GIS) environment by using Arc GIS software. Based on field investigation and DEM model, main structures in the area consist of Cham Shir syncline and two fault sets, the main thrust faults with NW-SE direction and small normal faults in NE-SW direction. There are three joint sets in the study area, both of them (J1 and J3) are the main large fractures around the Chamshir dam. These fractures indeed consist with the normal faults in NE-SW direction. The third joint set in NW-SE is normal to the others. In general, according to topography, geomorphology and structural geology evidences, Chamshir dam has a potential for sliding in some parts of Gachsaran formation.

Keywords: DEM, chamshir dam, zohreh river, satellite images

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Authors: Mohammad Saber Rohi, Saghar Heidari

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In this paper, we studied the pricing problem of American options under a regime-switching model with the possibility of a non-optimal exercise policy (early or late exercise time) which is called an irrational strategy. For this, we consider a Markovmodulated model for the dynamic of the underlying asset as an alternative model to the classical Balck-Scholes-Merton model (BSM) and an intensity-based model for the irrational strategy, to provide more realistic results for American option prices under the irrational behavior in real financial markets. Applying a partial differential equation (PDE) approach, the pricing problem of American options under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled PDEs. To solve the resulting systems of PDEs in this model, we apply a finite element method as the numerical solving procedure to the resulting variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and compare its accuracy to some recent works to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model and the accuracy of the applied numerical method for the pricing problem of American options under the regime-switching model with irrational behaviors.

Keywords: irrational exercise strategy, rationality parameter, regime-switching model, American option, finite element method, variational inequality

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Authors: Giovanni Cicceri, Roberta Maisano, Nathalie Morey, Salvatore Distefano

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The main goal of this paper is to present a solution for a water purification system based on an Environmental Internet of Things (EIoT) platform to monitor and control water quality and machine learning (ML) models to support decision making and speed up the processes of purification of water. A real case study has been implemented by deploying an EIoT platform and a network of devices, called Gramb meters and belonging to the Gramb project, on wastewater purification systems located in Calabria, south of Italy. The data thus collected are used to control the wastewater quality, detect anomalies and predict the behaviour of the purification system. To this extent, three different statistical and machine learning models have been adopted and thus compared: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoder, and Facebook Prophet (FP). The results demonstrated that the ML solution (LSTM) out-perform classical statistical approaches (ARIMA, FP), in terms of both accuracy, efficiency and effectiveness in monitoring and controlling the wastewater purification processes.

Keywords: environmental internet of things, EIoT, machine learning, anomaly detection, environment monitoring

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Authors: Dhouibi Mohamed, Stirbu Bogdan, Chabotier André, Pirlot Marc

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Effects of erosion and wear on the performance of small caliber guns have been analyzed throughout numerical and experimental studies. Mainly, qualitative observations were performed. Correlations between the volume change of the chamber and the maximum pressure are limited. This paper focuses on the development of a numerical model to predict the maximum pressure evolution when the interior shape of the chamber changes in the different weapon’s life phases. To fulfill this goal, an experimental campaign, followed by a numerical simulation study, is carried out. Two test barrels, « 5.56x45mm NATO » and « 7.62x51mm NATO,» are considered. First, a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) with a contact scanning probe is used to measure the interior profile of the barrels after each 300-shots cycle until their worn out. Simultaneously, the EPVAT (Electronic Pressure Velocity and Action Time) method with a special WEIBEL radar are used to measure: (i) the chamber pressure, (ii) the action time, (iii) and the bullet velocity in each barrel. Second, a numerical simulation study is carried out. Thus, a coupled interior ballistic model is developed using the dynamic finite element program LS-DYNA. In this work, two different models are elaborated: (i) coupled Eularien Lagrangian method using fluid-structure interaction (FSI) techniques and a coupled thermo-mechanical finite element using a lumped parameter model (LPM) as a subroutine. Those numerical models are validated and checked through three experimental results, such as (i) the muzzle velocity, (ii) the chamber pressure, and (iii) the surface morphology of fired projectiles. Results show a good agreement between experiments and numerical simulations. Next, a comparison between the two models is conducted. The projectile motions, the dynamic engraving resistances and the maximum pressures are compared and analyzed. Finally, using this obtained database, a statistical correlation between the muzzle velocity, the maximum pressure and the chamber volume is established.

Keywords: engraving process, finite element analysis, gun barrel erosion, interior ballistics, statistical correlation

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Authors: Eyad Almaita

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In this paper, a novel adaptive Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN) algorithm is used to forecast the hour by hour electrical load demand in Jordan. A small and effective RBFNN model is used to forecast the hourly total load demand based on a small number of features. These features are; the load in the previous day, the load in the same day in the previous week, the temperature in the same hour, the hour number, the day number, and the day type. The proposed adaptive RBFNN model can enhance the reliability of the conventional RBFNN after embedding the network in the system. This is achieved by introducing an adaptive algorithm that allows the change of the weights of the RBFNN after the training process is completed, which will eliminates the need to retrain the RBFNN model again. The data used in this paper is real data measured by National Electrical Power co. (Jordan). The data for the period Jan./2012-April/2013 is used train the RBFNN models and the data for the period May/2013- Sep. /2013 is used to validate the models effectiveness.

Keywords: load forecasting, adaptive neural network, radial basis function, short-term, electricity consumption

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Mithil Pandey, Ragunathan Bala Subramanian

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One of the major conversion technologies in the oil refinery industry is Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) which produces the majority of the world’s gasoline. Some useful products are generated from the vacuum gas oil, heavy gas oil and residue feedstocks by the FCC unit in an oil refinery. Moreover, Zeolite catalysts (zeo-catalysts) have found widespread applications and have proved to be substantial and paradigmatic in oil refining and petrochemical processes, such as FCC because of their porous features. Several famous zeo-catalysts have been fabricated and applied in industrial processes as milestones in history, and have brought on huge changes in petrochemicals. So far, more than twenty types of zeolites have been industrially applied, and their versatile porous architectures with their essential features have contributed to affect the catalytic efficiency. This poster depicts the evolution of pore models in zeolite catalysts which are accompanied by an increase in environmental and demands. The crucial roles of modulating pore models are outlined for zeo-catalysts for the enhancement of their catalytic performances in various industrial processes. The development of industrial processes for the FCC process, aromatic conversions and olefin production, makes it obvious that the pore architecture plays a very important role in zeo-catalysis processes. By looking at the different necessities of industrial processes, rational construction of the pore model is critically essential. Besides, the pore structure of the zeolite would have a substantial and direct effect on the utilization efficiency of the zeo-catalyst.

Keywords: catalysts, fluid catalytic cracking, industrial processes, zeolite

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Authors: Dina Ahmed Selim, Eman Shawky Anwar, Rasha Mohamed Abu El-Khair

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A rapid, simple and efficient method with minimal sample treatment was developed for authentication of Garcinia cambogia fruit peel powder, along with determining undeclared active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in its herbal slimming dietary supplements using near infrared spectroscopy combined with chemometrics. Five featured adulterants, including sibutramine, metformin, orlistat, ephedrine, and theophylline are selected as target compounds. The Near infrared spectral data matrix of authentic Garcinia cambogia fruit peel and specimens degraded by intentional contamination with the five selected APIs was subjected to hierarchical clustering analysis to investigate their bundling figure. SIMCA models were established to ensure the genuiness of Garcinia cambogia fruit peel which resulted in perfect classification of all tested specimens. Adulterated samples were utilized for construction of PLSR models based on different APIs contents at minute levels of fraud practices (LOQ < 0.2% w/w).The suggested approach can be applied to enhance and guarantee the safety and quality of Garcinia fruit peel powder as raw material and in dietary supplements.

Keywords: Garcinia cambogia, Quality control, NIR spectroscopy, Chemometrics

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Authors: O. O. Aiyelokun, O. A. Agbede

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Numerical modelling of groundwater flow can be susceptible to calibration errors due to lack of adequate ground-based hydro-metrological stations in river basins. Groundwater resources management in Southwest Nigeria is currently challenged by overexploitation, lack of planning and monitoring, urbanization and climate change; hence to adopt models as decision support tools for sustainable management of groundwater; they must be adequately calibrated. Since river basins in Southwest Nigeria are characterized by missing data, and lack of adequate ground-based hydro-meteorological stations; the need for adopting satellite-based data for constructing distributed models is crucial. This study seeks to evaluate the suitability of satellite-based data as substitute for ground-based, for computing boundary conditions; by determining if ground and satellite based meteorological data fit well in Ogun and Oshun River basins. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset was firstly obtained in daily form and converted to monthly form for the period of 432 months (January 1979 to June, 2014). Afterwards, ground-based meteorological data for Ikeja (1981-2010), Abeokuta (1983-2010), and Oshogbo (1981-2010) were compared with CFSR data using Goodness of Fit (GOF) statistics. The study revealed that based on mean absolute error (MEA), coefficient of correlation, (r) and coefficient of determination (R²); all meteorological variables except wind speed fit well. It was further revealed that maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall had high range of index of agreement (d) and ratio of standard deviation (rSD), implying that CFSR dataset could be used to compute boundary conditions such as groundwater recharge and potential evapotranspiration. The study concluded that satellite-based data such as the CFSR should be used as input when constructing groundwater flow models in river basins in Southwest Nigeria, where majority of the river basins are partially gaged and characterized with long missing hydro-metrological data.

Keywords: boundary condition, goodness of fit, groundwater, satellite-based data

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Authors: Gadisa Demie, Mesele Negash, Zerihun Asrat, Lojka Bohdan

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Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics have led to significant carbon (C) emissions. Agroforestry (AF) is a suitable land-use option for tackling such declines in ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. However, it is unclear how biomass models, AF practices, and socio-ecological factors determine these roles, which hinders the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. This study aimed to estimate the ecosystem C stocks of the studied AF practices in relation to socio-ecological variables in central Ethiopia. Out of 243 AF farms inventoried, 108 were chosen at random from three AF practices to estimate their biomass and soil organic carbon. A total of 432 soil samples were collected from 0–30 and 30–60 cm soil depths; 216 samples were taken for each soil organic carbon fraction (%C) and bulk density computation. The study found that the currently developed allometric equations were the most accurate to estimate biomass C for trees growing in the landscape when compared to previous models. The study found higher overall biomass C in woodlots (165.62 Mg ha-¹) than in homegardens (134.07 Mg ha-¹) and parklands (19.98 Mg ha-¹). Conversely, overall, SOC was higher for homegardens (143.88 Mg ha-¹), but lower for parklands (53.42 Mg ha-¹). The ecosystem C stock was comparable between homegardens (277.95 Mg ha-¹) and woodlots (275.44 Mg ha-¹). The study found that elevation, wealthy levels, AF farm age, and size have a positive and significant (P < 0.05) effect on overall biomass and ecosystem C stocks but non-significant with slope (P > 0.05). Similarly, SOC increased with increasing elevation, AF farm age, and wealthy status but decreased with slope and non-significant with AF farm size. The study also showed that species diversity had a positive (P <0.05) effect on overall biomass C stocks in homegardens. The overall study highlights that AF practices have a great potential to lock up more carbon in biomass and soils; however, these potentials were determined by socioecological variables. Thus, these factors should be considered in management strategies that preserve trees in agricultural landscapes in order to mitigate climate change and support the livelihoods of farmers.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, biomass, climate change, soil organic carbon

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Authors: Raed KOUTA, José-Alcebiades-Ernesto HLUNGUANE, Eric Châtele

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The search for and exploitation of new fossil energy resources is taking place in the context of the gradual depletion of existing deposits. Despite the adoption of international targets to combat global warming, the demand for fuels continues to grow, contradicting the movement towards an energy-efficient society. The increase in the share of offshore in global hydrocarbon production tends to compensate for the depletion of terrestrial reserves, thus constituting a major challenge for the players in the sector. Through the economic potential it represents, and the energy independence it provides, offshore exploitation is also a challenge for States such as Mozambique, which have large maritime areas and whose environmental wealth must be considered. The exploitation of new reserves on economically viable terms depends on available technologies. The development of deep and ultra-deep offshore requires significant research and development efforts. Progress has also been made in managing the multiple risks inherent in this activity. Our study proposes a reliability approach to develop products and processes designed to live at sea. Indeed, the context of an offshore platform requires highly reliable solutions to overcome the difficulties of access to the system for regular maintenance and quick repairs and which must resist deterioration and degradation processes. One of the characteristics of failures that we consider is the actual conditions of use that are considered 'extreme.' These conditions depend on time and the interactions between the different causes. These are the two factors that give the degradation process its dynamic character, hence the need to develop dynamic reliability models. Our work highlights mathematical models that can explicitly manage interactions between components and process variables. These models are accompanied by numerical resolution methods that help to structure a dynamic reliability approach in a physical and probabilistic context. The application developed makes it possible to evaluate the reliability, availability, and maintainability of a floating storage and unloading platform for liquefied natural gas production.

Keywords: dynamic reliability, offshore plateform, stochastic process, uncertainties

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Authors: Ujjwall Sai Sunder Uppuluri

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Group theory is a powerful tool that researchers can use to provide a structural foundation for their Agent Based Models. These Agent Based models are argued by this paper to be the future of the Social Science Disciplines. More specifically, researchers can use them to apply evolutionary theory to the study of complex social systems. This paper illustrates one such example of how theoretically an Agent Based Model can be formulated from the application of Group Theory, Systems Dynamics, and Evolutionary Biology to analyze the strategies pursued by states to mitigate risk and maximize usage of resources to achieve the objective of economic growth. This example can be applied to other social phenomena and this makes group theory so useful to the analysis of complex systems, because the theory provides the mathematical formulaic proof for validating the complex system models that researchers build and this will be discussed by the paper. The aim of this research, is to also provide researchers with a framework that can be used to model political entities such as states on a 3-dimensional plane. The x-axis representing resources (tangible and intangible) available to them, y the risks, and z the objective. There also exist other states with different constraints pursuing different strategies to climb the mountain. This mountain’s environment is made up of risks the state faces and resource endowments. This mountain is also layered in the sense that it has multiple peaks that must be overcome to reach the tallest peak. A state that sticks to a single strategy or pursues a strategy that is not conducive to the climbing of that specific peak it has reached is not able to continue advancement. To overcome the obstacle in the state’s path, it must innovate. Based on the definition of a group, we can categorize each state as being its own group. Each state is a closed system, one which is made up of micro level agents who have their own vectors and pursue strategies (actions) to achieve some sub objectives. The state also has an identity, the inverse being anarchy and/or inaction. Finally, the agents making up a state interact with each other through competition and collaboration to mitigate risks and achieve sub objectives that fall within the primary objective. Thus, researchers can categorize the state as an organism that reflects the sum of the output of the interactions pursued by agents at the micro level. When states compete, they employ a strategy and that state which has the better strategy (reflected by the strategies pursued by her parts) is able to out-compete her counterpart to acquire some resource, mitigate some risk or fulfil some objective. This paper will attempt to illustrate how group theory combined with evolutionary theory and systems dynamics can allow researchers to model the long run development, evolution, and growth of political entities through the use of a bottom up approach.

Keywords: complex systems, evolutionary theory, group theory, international political economy

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Authors: Prasad Pokkunuri

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Visco-elastic materials combine the stress response properties of both solids and fluids and have found use in a variety of damping applications – both vibrational and acoustic. Defense and automotive applications, in particular, are subject to high impact and shock loading – for example: aircraft landing gear, firearms, and shock absorbers. Field responsive fluids – a class of smart materials – are the preferred choice of energy absorbents because of their controllability. These fluids’ stress response can be controlled by the application of a magnetic or electric field, in a closed loop. Their rheological properties – elasticity, plasticity, and viscosity – can be varied all the way from that of a liquid such as water to a hard solid. This work presents a simplified model to study the impulse response behavior of such fluids for use in recoil damping systems. The well-known Burger’s equation, in conjunction with various visco-elastic constitutive models, is used to represent fluid behavior. The Kelvin-Voigt, Upper Convected Maxwell (UCM), and Oldroyd-B constitutive models are implemented in this study. Using these models in a one-dimensional framework eliminates additional complexities due to geometry, pressure, body forces, and other source terms. Using a finite difference formulation to numerically solve the governing equation(s), the response to an initial impulse is studied. The disturbance is confined within the problem domain with no-inflow, no-outflow boundary conditions, and its decay characteristics studied. Visco-elastic fluids typically involve a time-dependent stress relaxation which gives rise to interesting behavior when subjected to an impulsive load. For particular values of viscous damping and elastic modulus, the fluid settles into a stable oscillatory state, absorbing and releasing energy without much decay. The simplified formulation enables a comprehensive study of different modes of system response, by varying relevant parameters. Using the insights gained from this study, extension to a more detailed multi-dimensional model is considered.

Keywords: Burgers Equation, Impulse Response, Recoil Damping Systems, Visco-elastic Fluids

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Authors: Chaitanya Varma, Arpan Mehar

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The present study demonstrates the procedure to analyse speed data collected on various four-lane divided sections in India. Field data for the study was collected at different straight and curved sections on rural highways with the help of radar speed gun and video camera. The data collected at the sections were analysed and parameters pertain to speed distributions were estimated. The different statistical distribution was analysed on vehicle type speed data and for mixed traffic speed data. It was found that vehicle type speed data was either follows the normal distribution or Log-normal distribution, whereas the mixed traffic speed data follows more than one type of statistical distribution. The most common fit observed on mixed traffic speed data were Beta distribution and Weibull distribution. The separate operating speed model based on traffic and roadway geometric parameters were proposed in the present study. The operating speed model with traffic parameters and curve geometry parameters were established. Two different operating speed models were proposed with variables 1/R and Ln(R) and were found to be realistic with a different range of curve radius. The models developed in the present study are simple and realistic and can be used for forecasting operating speed on four-lane highways.

Keywords: highway, mixed traffic flow, modeling, operating speed

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Authors: Dimitrios I. Tselentis, Simon P. Washington

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Considerable literature has been focused over the last few decades on forecasting the consumer demand of Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEVs). These methodological issues range from how to capture recent purchase decisions in revealed choice studies and how to set up experiments in stated preference (SP) studies, and choice of analysis method for analyzing such data. This paper reviews the plethora of published studies on the field of forecasting demand of EEVs since 1980, and provides a review and annotated bibliography of that literature as it pertains to this particular demand forecasting problem. This detailed review addresses the literature not only to Transportation studies, but specifically to the problem and methodologies around forecasting to the time horizons of planning studies which may represent 10 to 20 year forecasts. The objectives of the paper are to identify where existing gaps in literature exist and to articulate where promising methodologies might guide longer term forecasting. One of the key findings of this review is that there are many common techniques used both in the field of new product demand forecasting and the field of predicting future demand for EEV. Apart from SP and RP methods, some of these new techniques that have emerged in the literature in the last few decades are survey related approaches, product diffusion models, time-series modelling, computational intelligence models and other holistic approaches.

Keywords: demand forecasting, Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEVs), forecasting methodologies review, methodological approaches

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Authors: Md Murshed Bhuyan, Hirotaka Okabe, Yoshiki Hidaka, Kazuhiro Hara

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Pectin-Acrylamide- (Vinyl Phosphonic Acid) Hydrogels were prepared from their blend by using gamma radiation of various doses. It was found that the gel fraction of hydrogel increases with increasing the radiation dose reaches a maximum and then started decreasing with increasing the dose. The optimum radiation dose and the composition of raw materials were determined on the basis of equilibrium swelling which resulted in 20 kGy absorbed dose and 1:2:4 (Pectin:AAm:VPA) composition. Differential scanning calorimetry reveals the gel strength for using them as the adsorbent. The FTIR-spectrum confirmed the grafting/ crosslinking of the monomer on the backbone of pectin chain. The hydrogels were applied in adsorption of Al, Ga, and In from multielement solution where the adsorption capacity order for those three elements was found as – In>Ga>Al. SEM images of hydrogels and metal adsorbed hydrogels indicate the gel network and adherence of the metal ions in the interpenetrating network of the hydrogel which were supported by EDS spectra. The adsorption isotherm models were studied and found that the Langmuir adsorption isotherm model was well fitted with the data. Adsorption data were also fitted to different adsorption kinetic and diffusion models. Desorption of metal adsorbed hydrogels was performed in 5% nitric acid where desorption efficiency was found around 90%.

Keywords: hydrogel, gamma radiation, vinyl phosphonic acid, metal adsorption

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Authors: Shital Patil, Surendra Bhosale

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Cardiac diseases are the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in the world, from recent few decades accounting for a large number of deaths have emerged as the most life-threatening disorder globally. Machine learning and Artificial intelligence have been playing key role in predicting the heart diseases. A relevant set of feature can be very helpful in predicting the disease accurately. In this study, we proposed a comparative analysis of 4 different features selection methods and evaluated their performance with both raw (Unbalanced dataset) and sampled (Balanced) dataset. The publicly available Z-Alizadeh Sani dataset have been used for this study. Four feature selection methods: Data Analysis, minimum Redundancy maximum Relevance (mRMR), Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), Chi-squared are used in this study. These methods are tested with 8 different classification models to get the best accuracy possible. Using balanced and unbalanced dataset, the study shows promising results in terms of various performance metrics in accurately predicting heart disease. Experimental results obtained by the proposed method with the raw data obtains maximum AUC of 100%, maximum F1 score of 94%, maximum Recall of 98%, maximum Precision of 93%. While with the balanced dataset obtained results are, maximum AUC of 100%, F1-score 95%, maximum Recall of 95%, maximum Precision of 97%.

Keywords: cardio vascular diseases, machine learning, feature selection, SMOTE

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Authors: M. Chafi, S. Akazdam, C. Asrir, L. Sebbahi, B. Gourich, N. Barka, M. Essahli

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Fixed bed adsorption has become a frequently used industrial application in wastewater treatment processes. Various low cost adsorbents have been studied for their applicability in treatment of different types of effluents. In this work, the intention of the study was to explore the efficacy and feasibility for azo dye, Acid Orange 7 (AO7) adsorption onto fixed bed column of NaOH Treated eggshell (TES). The effect of various parameters like flow rate, initial dye concentration, and bed height were exploited in this study. The studies confirmed that the breakthrough curves were dependent on flow rate, initial dye concentration solution of AO7 and bed depth. The Thomas, Yoon–Nelson, and Adams and Bohart models were analysed to evaluate the column adsorption performance. The adsorption capacity, rate constant and correlation coefficient associated to each model for column adsorption was calculated and mentioned. The column experimental data were fitted well with Thomas model with coefficients of correlation R2 ≥0.93 at different conditions but the Yoon–Nelson, BDST and Bohart–Adams model (R2=0.911), predicted poor performance of fixed-bed column. The (TES) was shown to be suitable adsorbent for adsorption of AO7 using fixed-bed adsorption column.

Keywords: adsorption models, acid orange 7, bed depth, breakthrough, dye adsorption, fixed-bed column, treated eggshell

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.

Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Edson Vengesai

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Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

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Authors: Rachida Ouysse

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This paper proposes a constrained principal components (CnPC) estimator for efficient estimation of large-dimensional factor models when errors are cross sectionally correlated and the number of cross-sections (N) may be larger than the number of observations (T). Although principal components (PC) method is consistent for any path of the panel dimensions, it is inefficient as the errors are treated to be homoskedastic and uncorrelated. The new CnPC exploits the assumption of bounded cross-sectional dependence, which defines Chamberlain and Rothschild’s (1983) approximate factor structure, as an explicit constraint and solves a constrained PC problem. The CnPC method is computationally equivalent to the PC method applied to a regularized form of the data covariance matrix. Unlike maximum likelihood type methods, the CnPC method does not require inverting a large covariance matrix and thus is valid for panels with N ≥ T. The paper derives a convergence rate and an asymptotic normality result for the CnPC estimators of the common factors. We provide feasible estimators and show in a simulation study that they are more accurate than the PC estimator, especially for panels with N larger than T, and the generalized PC type estimators, especially for panels with N almost as large as T.

Keywords: high dimensionality, unknown factors, principal components, cross-sectional correlation, shrinkage regression, regularization, pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Mohammed Al Sulaimani, Hamad Al Manhi

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With the development of Remote Sensing technology, the resolution of optical Remote Sensing images has greatly improved, and images have become largely available. Numerous detectors have been developed for detecting different types of objects. In the past few years, Remote Sensing has benefited a lot from deep learning, particularly Deep Convolution Neural Networks (CNNs). Deep learning holds great promise to fulfill the challenging needs of Remote Sensing and solving various problems within different fields and applications. The use of Unmanned Aerial Systems in acquiring Aerial Photos has become highly used and preferred by most organizations to support their activities because of their high resolution and accuracy, which make the identification and detection of very small features much easier than Satellite Images. And this has opened an extreme era of Deep Learning in different applications not only in feature extraction and prediction but also in analysis. This work addresses the capacity of Machine Learning and Deep Learning in detecting and extracting Oil Leaks from Flowlines (Onshore) using High-Resolution Aerial Photos which have been acquired by UAS fixed with RGB Sensor to support early detection of these leaks and prevent the company from the leak’s losses and the most important thing environmental damage. Here, there are two different approaches and different methods of DL have been demonstrated. The first approach focuses on detecting the Oil Leaks from the RAW Aerial Photos (not processed) using a Deep Learning called Single Shoot Detector (SSD). The model draws bounding boxes around the leaks, and the results were extremely good. The second approach focuses on detecting the Oil Leaks from the Ortho-mosaiced Images (Georeferenced Images) by developing three Deep Learning Models using (MaskRCNN, U-Net and PSP-Net Classifier). Then, post-processing is performed to combine the results of these three Deep Learning Models to achieve a better detection result and improved accuracy. Although there is a relatively small amount of datasets available for training purposes, the Trained DL Models have shown good results in extracting the extent of the Oil Leaks and obtaining excellent and accurate detection.

Keywords: GIS, remote sensing, oil leak detection, machine learning, aerial photos, unmanned aerial systems

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Authors: Stephanie Jo Marchese

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This oral presentation is a reflective piece regarding current social work teaching methods that value and devalue the lived experiences of survivor students. This presentation grounds the term ‘survivor’ in feminist frameworks. A survivor-defined approach to feminist advocacy assumes an individual’s agency, considers each case and needs independent of generalizations, and provides resources and support to empower victims. Feminist ideologies are ripe arenas to update and influence the rapport-building schools of social work have with these students. Survivor-based frameworks are rooted in nuanced understandings of intersectional realities, staunchly combat both conscious and unconscious deficit lenses wielded against victims, elevate lived experiences to the realm of experiential expertise, and offer alternatives to traditional power structures and knowledge exchanges. Actively importing a survivor framework into the methodology of social work teaching breaks open barriers many survivor students have faced in institutional settings, this author included. The profession of social work is at an important crux of change, both in the United States and globally. The United States is currently undergoing a radical change in its citizenry and outlier communities have taken to the streets again in opposition to their othered-ness. New waves of students are entering this field, emboldened by their survival of personal and systemic oppressions- heavily influenced by third-wave feminism, critical race theory, queer theory, among other post-structuralist ideologies. Traditional models of sociological and psychological studies are actively being challenged. The profession of social work was not founded on the diagnosis of disorders but rather a grassroots-level activism that heralded and demanded resources for oppressed communities. Institutional and classroom acceptance and celebration of survivor narratives can catapult the resurgence of these values needed in the profession’s service-delivery models and put social workers back in the driver's seat of social change (a combined advocacy and policy perspective), moving away from outsider-based intervention models. Survivor students should be viewed as agents of change, not solely former victims and clients. The ideas of this presentation proposal are supported through various qualitative interviews, as well as reviews of ‘best practices’ in the field of education that incorporate feminist methods of inclusion and empowerment. Curriculum and policy recommendations are also offered.

Keywords: deficit lens bias, empowerment theory, feminist praxis, inclusive teaching models, strengths-based approaches, social work teaching methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 289