Search results for: economic models

Authors: Alfonso Ippolito, Cristiana Bartolomei

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A growing demand is felt today for realistic 3D models enabling the cognition and popularization of historical-artistic heritage. Evaluation and preservation of Cultural Heritage is inextricably connected with the innovative processes of gaining, managing, and using knowledge. The development and perfecting of techniques for acquiring and elaborating photorealistic 3D models, made them pivotal elements for popularizing information of objects on the scale of architectonic structures.

Keywords: cultural heritage, databases, non-contact survey, 2D-3D models

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Authors: Sheldon Liu, Gordon Wang, Lei Liu, Xuefeng Liu

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Anomaly detection, also referred to as one-class classification, plays a crucial role in identifying product images that deviate from the expected distribution. This study introduces Data-centric Anomaly Detection with Diffusion Models (DCADDM), presenting a systematic strategy for data collection and further diversifying the data with image generation via diffusion models. The algorithm addresses data collection challenges in real-world scenarios and points toward data augmentation with the integration of generative AI capabilities. The paper explores the generation of normal images using diffusion models. The experiments demonstrate that with 30% of the original normal image size, modeling in an unsupervised setting with state-of-the-art approaches can achieve equivalent performances. With the addition of generated images via diffusion models (10% equivalence of the original dataset size), the proposed algorithm achieves better or equivalent anomaly localization performance.

Keywords: diffusion models, anomaly detection, data-centric, generative AI

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Authors: Kacper Tomasz Kröber-Mulawa

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This paper will address the topic of data ownership from an economic perspective, and examples of economic limitations of data property rights will be provided, which have been identified using methods and approaches of economic analysis of law. To properly build a background for the economic focus, in the beginning a short perspective of data and data ownership in the EU’s legal system will be provided. It will include a short introduction to its political and social importance and highlight relevant viewpoints. This will stress the importance of a Single Market for data but also far-reaching regulations of data governance and privacy (including the distinction of personal and non-personal data, data held by public bodies and private businesses). The main discussion of this paper will build upon the briefly referred to legal basis as well as methods and approaches of economic analysis of law.

Keywords: antitrust, data, data ownership, digital economy, property rights

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Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya

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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.

Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk

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Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

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The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

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Authors: Patria Yunita

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Kuznets’ environmental curve analysis suggests sacrificing economic development to reduce environmental problems. However, we hope to achieve sustainable economic development. In this case, Islamic social finance, especially that of waqf in Indonesia, can be used as a solution to bridge the problem of environmental damage to the sustainability of economic development. The Panel Logit Regression method was used to analyze the probability of increasing economic growth and the role of waqf in the environmental impact of CO₂ emissions. This study uses panel data from 33 Indonesian provinces. The data used were the National Waqf Index, Forest Area, Waqf Land Area, Growth Rate of Regional Gross Domestic Product (YoY), and CO₂ Emissions for 2018-2022. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Waqf Board, Climate World Data, the Ministry of the Environment, and the Bank of Indonesia. The results prove that CO₂ emissions have a negative effect on regional economic growth and that waqf governance in the waqf index has a positive effect on regional economic growth in 33 provinces.

Keywords: waqf, CO₂ emissions, panel logit analysis, sustainable economic development

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Authors: Elina Bakhtieva

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The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap. However, modern marketing offers no widely approved digital marketing maturity model, and thus, some marketing institutions provide their own tools. The purpose of this paper is building an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model based on a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of existing models. The current study provides an analytical review of the existing digital marketing maturity models with open access. The results of the research are twofold. First, the provided SWOT analysis outlines the main advantages and disadvantages of existing models. Secondly, the strengths of existing digital marketing maturity models, helps to identify the main characteristics and the structure of an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model. The research findings indicate that only one out of three analyzed models could be used as a separate tool. This study is among the first examining the use of maturity models in digital marketing. It helps businesses to choose between the existing digital marketing models, the most effective one. Moreover, it creates a base for future research on digital marketing maturity models. This study contributes to the emerging B2B digital marketing literature by providing a SWOT analysis of the existing digital marketing maturity models and suggesting a structure and main characteristics of an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model.

Keywords: B2B digital marketing strategy, digital marketing, digital marketing maturity model, SWOT analysis

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Authors: Anuj Kumar Vaksha

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In the post cold war era the foreign direct investments have come to be considered as one of the most critical factors for economic development of a country particularly for the capital scarce countries like the developing and the under developed countries. The rush for foreign direct investments have led to intense competition between the countries treaties to attract foreign investments by entering into alluring Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs). The Bilateral Investment Treaties are the intergovernmental legal framework for the promotion of private investments from one country to other. With more than 3000 BITs, the web of such BITs are the most dominant development of International Law in the post cold war era. The essence of all these BITs are bilateral cooperation for economic development and thus it is actually the theme of economic development around which the International Law had developed most dominantly in the post cold war era. Within the framework of two generally accepted premises that foreign direct investments are critical for economic development and the bilateral investment treaties are critical for promotion of foreign direct investments, the research paper seeks to explore the perspectives and paradigms on economic development as embodied in various Bilateral Investment Treaties. It seeks to address how and in what manners the perspectives on economic development as embodied in bilateral investment varies between the developed, developing and underdeveloped countries. It goes without saying that economic development is a very broad, complex and operationally intricate concept. In the paradigm of International Law it becomes much more complex and intricate. Understanding the concept of economic development from the perspectives of Bilateral Investment Treaties is a novel idea with far reaching significance. Such a perspective on economic development would help in enriching the contemporary International Law perspectives and paradigms on economic development.

Keywords: bilateral investment treaties, economic development, international Law, perspectives

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Authors: A. Camões, M. Ferreira Dias, M. Amorim

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In recent years, the social economy is increasingly seen as a viable means to address social problems. Social enterprises, as well as public projects and initiatives targeted to meet social purposes, offer organizational models that assume heterogeneity, flexibility and adaptability to the ‘real world and real problems’. Despite the growing popularity of social initiatives, decision makers still face a paucity in what concerns the available models and tools to adequately assess its sustainability, and its impacts, notably the nature of its contribution to economic growth. This study was carried out at the local level, by analyzing the social impact initiatives and projects promoted by the Municipality of Albergaria-a-Velha (Câmara Municipal de Albergaria-a-Velha -CMA), a municipality of 25,000 inhabitants in the central region of Portugal. This work focuses on the challenges related to the qualifications and employability of citizens, which stands out as one of the key concerns in the Portuguese economy, particularly expressive in the context of small-scale cities and inland territories. The study offers a characterization of the Municipality, its socio-economic structure and challenges, followed by an exploratory analysis of multiple sourced data, collected from the CMA's documental sources as well as from privileged informants. The purpose is to conduct detailed analysis of the CMA's social projects, aimed at characterizing its potential impact for the model of qualifications and employability of the citizens of the Municipality. The study encompasses a discussion of the socio-economic profile of the municipality, notably its asymmetries, the analysis of the social projects and initiatives, as well as of data derived from inquiry actors involved in the implementation of the social projects and its beneficiaries. Finally, the results obtained with the Better Life Index will be included. This study makes it possible to ascertain if what is implicit in the literature goes to the encounter of what one experiences in reality.

Keywords: measurement, municipalities, social economy, social impact

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Authors: Emin Avcı, Çiydem Çatak

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The recent economic crisis have shown that procyclicality, which could threaten the stability and growth of the economy, is a major problem of financial and real sector. The term procyclicality refers here the cyclical behavior of banks that lead them to follow the same patterns as the real economy. In this study, leverage which demonstrate how a bank manage its debt, is chosen as bank specific variable to see the effect of changes in it over the economic cycle. The procyclical behavior of Turkish banking sector (commercial, participation, development-investment banks) is tried to explain with analyzing the relationship between leverage and asset growth. On the basis of theoretical explanations, eight different leverage ratios are utilized in eight different panel data models to demonstrate the procyclicality effect of Turkish banks leverage using monthly data covering the 2005-2014 period. It is tested whether there is an increasing (decreasing) trend in the leverage ratio of Turkish banks when there is an enlargement (contraction) in their balance sheet. The major finding of the study indicates that asset growth has a significant effect on all eight leverage ratios. In other words, the leverage of Turkish banks follow a cyclical pattern, which is in line with those of earlier literature.

Keywords: banking, economic cycles, leverage, procyclicality

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Authors: Dražen Cvitanić, Biljana Maljković

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This paper presents models for predicting operating speeds on tangent sections of two-lane rural roads developed on continuous speed data. The data corresponds to 20 drivers of different ages and driving experiences, driving their own cars along an 18 km long section of a state road. The data were first used for determination of maximum operating speeds on tangents and their comparison with speeds in the middle of tangents i.e. speed data used in most of operating speed studies. Analysis of continuous speed data indicated that the spot speed data are not reliable indicators of relevant speeds. After that, operating speed models for tangent sections were developed. There was no significant difference between models developed using speed data in the middle of tangent sections and models developed using maximum operating speeds on tangent sections. All developed models have higher coefficient of determination then models developed on spot speed data. Thus, it can be concluded that the method of measuring has more significant impact on the quality of operating speed model than the location of measurement.

Keywords: operating speed, continuous speed data, tangent sections, spot speed, consistency

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Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl

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This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.

Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine

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Authors: V. Benidze

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After the Rose Revolution of 2003, Georgia has achieved an unparalleled socioeconomic success. However, economic growth since 2012 has been sluggish and certainly not enough to rapidly improve the county’s standard of living that still remains substantially low compared to that in developed nations. Recent poor economic performance has shown that some key challenges need to be addressed if Georgia is to achieve high future economic growth that will decrease the poverty rate and create a middle class in the country. This paper offers in detail analysis of the economic performance of Georgia since 2012 and identifies key challenges facing the country’s economy. The main challenge going forward will be transforming Georgia from a consumption-driven to a production-oriented economy. It is identified that mobilizing domestic investment through savings, attracting foreign investment in tradable sectors and expanding the country’s export base will be crucial in the facilitation of the above-mentioned structural transformation. As the outcome of the research, the paper suggests a strategy for accelerating Georgia’ future economic growth and offers recommendations based on the relevant conclusions.

Keywords: challenges, development, economic growth, economic policy, Georgia

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Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

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The primary aim of the presentation is to try to model border traffic and, at the same time to explain on which economic variables the intensity of border traffic depended in the long term. For this purpose, long series of traffic data on the Polish borders were used. Models were estimated for three variants of explanatory variables: a) for total arrivals and departures (total movement of Poles and foreigners), b) for arrivals and departures of Poles, and c) for arrivals and departures of foreigners. Each of the defined explanatory variables in the models appeared as the logarithm of the natural number of persons. Data from 1994-2017 were used for modeling (for internal Schengen borders for the years 1994-2007). Information on the number of people arriving in and leaving Poland was collected for a total of 303 border crossings. On the basis of the analyses carried out, it was found that one of the main factors determining border traffic is generally differences in the level of economic development (GDP) and the condition of the economy (level of unemployment) and the degree of border permeability. Also statistically significant for border traffic are differences in the prices of goods (fuels, tobacco, and alcohol products) and services (mainly basic ones, e.g., hairdressing services). Such a relationship exists mainly on the eastern border (border traffic determined largely by differences in the prices of goods) and on the border with Germany (in the first analysed period, border traffic was determined mainly by the prices of goods, later - after Poland's accession to the EU and the Schengen area - also by the prices of services). The models also confirmed differences in the set of factors shaping the volume and structure of border traffic on the Polish borders resulting from general geopolitical conditions, with the year 2007 being an important caesura, after which the classical population mobility factors became visible. The results obtained were additionally related to changes in traffic that occurred as a result of the CPOVID-19 pandemic and as a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Keywords: border, modal structure, transport, Ukraine

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Authors: Aimilia Vlami

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This paper examines the tourist economic development of Greece on the basis of the analysis of the main characteristics of the financing and development processes and the spatial and temporal structure of supply and demand. Taking into consideration the evolution of the economic planning and the policy for the tourist development of Greece over time, we study at the same time: the composition, the changes and the dynamics of the hotel industry in the last 20 years and especially the period of the economic adjustment programmes, where tourism has become a key pillar of development. It is clearly evident that this paper is written in a specific economic situation, which directs as much the emphases as the flow of arguments around the central question of balance of interventions in the tourist space, between the need for planning and practice of policy for sustainable tourist growth and in the de facto adaptation of fragmentary and urgent interventions of shaping and transforming the tourist space, as they are shaped by the requirements of various institutions and interest groups.

Keywords: development, Greece, hospitality, economic policy, tourism investments

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Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous

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Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models, and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulates the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar cycles (sc) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.

Keywords: artificial neural network, coronal hole area, feed-forward neural network models, solar high speed streams

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Authors: Abubakar O. Sulaiman

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Agriculture was the main stay of Nigeria’s economy before the oil boom of the 1970s caused a gradual but steady shift from agriculture to crude oil as the major source of revenue and foreign exchange. The economy later experienced many symptoms of the 'Dutch disease', with exchange rate appreciation and erosion of competitiveness of the non-oil tradable goods. In order to reverse the worsening economic situations -high unemployment, galloping inflation, deteriorating balance of payment, declining economic growth, and fiscal deficits among others- the government, embarked on austerity measures in 1982 and Structure Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986. One of the cornerstones of SAP is the diversification of the economy from oil to non-oil. In the form of stocktaking, this paper investigates the impact of non-oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly time-series data from 1980 to 2019. The findings revealed that a long-run relationship exists between the variables (non-oil variables) and economic growth in Nigeria. Among the variables, (agriculture revenue, manufacturing revenue, revenue from services, and company income tax) contributed substantially to economic growth. The paper recommends that the government should continue to intensify efforts and policies in the diversification of the economy as it will bring about sustainable non-oil revenue and economic growth.

Keywords: non-oil revenue, economic growth, export, long run relationship

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Authors: Endang Jati Mat Sahid, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Ability to supply reliable and secure electricity has been one of the crucial components of economic development for any country. Forecasting of electricity production is therefore very important for accurate investment planning of generation power plants. In this study, we aim to examine and analyze the factors that affect electricity generation. Multiple regression models were used to find the relationship between various variables and electricity production. The models will simultaneously determine the effects of the variables on electricity generation. Many variables influencing electricity generation, i.e. natural gas (NG), coal (CO), fuel oil (FO), renewable energy (RE), gross domestic product (GDP) and fuel prices (FP), were examined for Malaysia. The results demonstrate that NG, CO, and FO were the main factors influencing electricity generation growth. This study then identified a number of policy implications resulting from the empirical results.

Keywords: energy policy, energy security, electricity production, Malaysia, the regression model

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Authors: Ida Bagus Ilham Malik, Bart Julian Dewancker

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The road construction will affect the development of the region along the new road. With this principle, the government developed Antasari Street in order to become one of the main economic corridors for the city of Bandar Lampung. Since its construction in 1997, Antasari Street developed into one of the main economic corridors that greatly affect the economic condition of the city, in addition to other economic corridors such as Pagar Alam Street and Teuku Umar Street. The data shows that the construction of roads affects economic development in the corridor that with the advent of commercial buildings in large quantities. Among them are shops, office, restaurants, and a car showroom. This study proves that the road construction could accelerate the economic progress of the road corridor, especially in the construction and development of urban roads.

Keywords: road development, commercial area, Antasari street, Bandar Lampung

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Marula Tsagkari

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Greece finds itself in challenging times, facing a severe economic slowdown since 2009. Despite the fact that Greece is in the epicenter of the global interest, to the best of our knowledge there is no extend research on how the crisis has affected the Greek environment (directly and indirectly), the past years. Thus, the present study aims to fill the aforementioned research gap by examining a number of environmental indicators related with air emissions, waste, water and energy. Our results indicate that the crisis affected the Greek environment in both positive and negative ways. For Greece, the main challenge is to recover from the present economic recession as soon as possible, but not at any cost to the environment. In this context, this research unfolds the interrelation between the economic and the environmental crisis and suggests a sustainable restructuring of the Greek economy.

Keywords: Greece, economic crisis, environmental policy, environmental indicators

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Authors: Pedro M. Abreu, Bruno R. Mendes

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The management of pharmacotherapy and the process of dispensing medicines is becoming critical in clinical pharmacy due to the increase of incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases, the complexity and customization of therapeutic regimens, the introduction of innovative and more expensive medicines, the unbalanced relation between expenditure and revenue as well as due to the lack of rationalization associated with medication use. For these reasons, co-payments emerged in Europe in the 70s and have been applied over the past few years in healthcare. Co-payments lead to a rationing and rationalization of user’s access under healthcare services and products, and simultaneously, to a qualification and improvement of the services and products for the end-user. This analysis, under hospital practices particularly and co-payment strategies in general, was carried out on all the European regions and identified four reference countries, that apply repeatedly this tool and with different approaches. The structure, content and adaptation of European co-payments were analyzed through 7 qualitative attributes and 19 performance indicators, and the results expressed in a scorecard, allowing to conclude that the German models (total score of 68,2% and 63,6% in both elected co-payments) can collect more compliance and effectiveness, the English models (total score of 50%) can be more accessible, and the French models (total score of 50%) can be more adequate to the socio-economic and legal framework. Other European models did not show the same quality and/or performance, so were not taken as a standard in the future design of co-payments strategies. In this sense, we can see in the co-payments a strategy not only to moderate the consumption of healthcare products and services, but especially to improve them, as well as a strategy to increment the value that the end-user assigns to these services and products, such as medicines.

Keywords: clinical pharmacy, co-payments, healthcare, medicines

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Authors: Wenjuan Lu

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China and Hungary have risen from a friendly and comprehensive cooperative relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership in recent years, and the economic and trade relations between the two countries have developed smoothly. As an important country along the ‘Belt and Road’, Hungary and China have strong economic complementarities and have unique advantages in carrying China's industrial transfer and economic transformation and development. The construction of the China-Hungary Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, which was initiated by the ‘Sino-Hungarian Borsod Industrial Zone’ and the ‘Hungarian Central European Trade and Logistics Cooperation Park’ has promoted infrastructure construction, optimized production capacity, promoted industrial restructuring, and formed brand and agglomeration effects. Enhancing the influence of Chinese companies in the European market has also promoted economic development in Hungary and even in Central and Eastern Europe. However, as the China-Hungary Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone is still in its infancy, there are still shortcomings such as small scale, single function, and no prominent platform. In the future, based on the needs of China's cooperation with ‘17+1’ and China-Hungary cooperation, on the basis of appropriately expanding the scale of economic and trade cooperation zones and appropriately increasing the number of economic and trade cooperation zones, it is better to focus on optimizing and adjusting its functions and highlighting different economic and trade cooperation. The differentiated function of the trade zones strengthens the multi-faceted cooperation of economic and trade cooperation zones and highlights its role as a platform for cooperation in information, capital, and services.

Keywords: ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiative, China-Hungary economic and trade cooperation zone, function optimization, Central and Eastern Europe

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Authors: Ashwini V. Chavan, Sukhanand S. Bhosale

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Challenges of weak soil subgrade are often resolved either by stabilization or reinforcing it. However, it is also practiced to reinforce the granular fill to improve the load-settlement behavior of over weak soil strata. The inclusion of reinforcement in the engineered granular fill provided a new impetus for the development of enhanced Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) models, also known as mechanical foundation models or lumped parameter models. Several researchers have been working in this direction to understand the mechanism of granular fill-reinforcement interaction and the response of weak soil under the application of load. These models have been developed by extending available SSI models such as the Winkler Model, Pasternak Model, Hetenyi Model, Kerr Model etc., and are helpful to visualize the load-settlement behavior of a physical system through 1-D and 2-D analysis considering beam and plate resting on the foundation respectively. Based on the literature survey, these models are categorized as ‘Reinforced Pasternak Model,’ ‘Double Beam Model,’ ‘Reinforced Timoshenko Beam Model,’ and ‘Reinforced Kerr Model.’ The present work reviews the past 30+ years of research in the field of SSI models for reinforced foundation systems, presenting the conceptual development of these models systematically and discussing their limitations. Special efforts are taken to tabulate the parameters and their significance in the load-settlement analysis, which may be helpful in future studies for the comparison and enhancement of results and findings of physical models.

Keywords: geosynthetics, mathematical modeling, reinforced foundation, soil-structure interaction, ground improvement, soft soil

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Authors: Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris

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The present work examines the suitability of a seasonal forecasting model downscaled with a very high spatial resolution in order to assess the energy performance and requirements of buildings. The application of the developed model is applied on Greece for a period and with a forecast horizon of 5 months in the future. Greece, as a country in the middle of a financial crisis and facing serious societal challenges, is also very sensitive to climate changes. The commonly used method for the correlation of climate change with the buildings energy consumption is the concept of Degree Days (DD). This method can be applied to heating and cooling systems for a better management of environmental, economic and energy crisis, and can be used as medium (3-6 months) planning tools in order to predict the building needs and country’s requirements for residential energy use.

Keywords: downscaled seasonal models, degree days, energy performance

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Authors: Hazel Pettifor, Charlie Wilson, David Mccollum, Oreane Edelenbosch

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Vehicle purchase is a technology adoption decision that will strongly influence future energy and emission outcomes. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the medium and long terms effects of socio-economic development, technological change and climate policy. In this paper we present a unique and transparent approach for improving the behavioural representation of these models by incorporating social influence effects to more accurately represent consumer choice. This work draws together strong conceptual thinking and robust empirical evidence to introduce heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real-world processes.

Keywords: behavioural realism, electric vehicles, social influence, vehicle choice

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Authors: Okwan Frank

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Maternal health outcome is one of the major population development challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region has the highest maternal mortality ratio, despite the progressive economic growth in the region during the global economic crisis. It has been hypothesized that increase in economic growth will reduce the level of maternal mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of the negative relationship between health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used the Pooled Mean Group estimator of ARDL Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Kao test for cointegration to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between maternal mortality and economic growth. The results of the cointegration test showed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables considered for the study. The long-run result of the Pooled Mean group estimates confirmed the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between maternal health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth proxy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Thus increasing economic growth by investing in the health care systems to reduce pregnancy and childbirth complications will help reduce maternal mortality in the sub-region.

Keywords: economic growth, maternal mortality, pool mean group, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Francesca Croce

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Governmental development strategies aimed at entrepreneurship as a major resource for economic development and poverty reduction of indigenous people. As initiatives and programs are local based, there is a need to better understand the contextual factors of indigenous entrepreneurial models. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to analyze and integrated the indigenous entrepreneurship literature in order to identify the main models of indigenous entrepreneurship. To answer this need, a systematic literature review was conducted. Relevant articles were identified in selected electronic databases (ABI/Inform Global, Business Source Premier, Web of Science; International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, Academic Search, Sociological Abstract, Entrepreneurial Studies Sources and Bibliography of Native North America) and in selected electronic review. Beginning to 1st January 1995 (first International Day of the World’s Indigenous People), 59 academic articles were selected from 1411. Through systematic analysis of the cultural, social and organizational variables, the paper highlights that a typology of indigenous entrepreneurial models is possible thought the concept of entrepreneurial ecosystem, which includes the geographical position and the environment of the indigenous communities. The results show three models of indigenous entrepreneurship: the urban indigenous entrepreneurship, the semi-urban indigenous entrepreneurship, and rural indigenous entrepreneurship. After the introduction, the paper is organized as follows. In the first part theoretical and practical needs of a systematic literature review on indigenous entrepreneurship are provided. In the second part, the methodology, the selection process and evaluation of the articles are explained. In the third part, findings are presented and each indigenous entrepreneurial model characteristics are discussed. The results of this study bring a new theorization about indigenous entrepreneurship and may be useful for scientists in the field in search of overcoming the cognitive border of Indigenous business models still too little known. Also, the study is addressed to policy makers in charge of indigenous entrepreneurial development strategies more focused on contextual factors studies.

Keywords: community development, entrepreneurial ecosystem, indigenous entrepreneurship model, indigenous people, systematic literature review

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Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

Abstract:

A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

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Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

Abstract:

In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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