Search results for: grade uncertainty

Authors: Zhifeng Xu, Zhongfan Chen

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A series of tests on cold-formed steel foamed concrete (CSFC) composite walls subjected to axial load were proposed. The primary purpose of the experiments was to study the mechanical behavior and identify the failure modes of CSFC composite walls. Two main factors were considered in this study: 1) specimen with pouring foamed concrete or without and 2) different foamed concrete density ranks (corresponding to different foamed concrete strength). The interior space between two pieces of straw board of the specimen W-2 and W-3 were poured foamed concrete, and the specimen W-1 does not have foamed concrete core. The foamed concrete density rank of the specimen W-2 was A05 grade, and that of the specimen W-3 was A07 grade. Results showed that the failure mode of CSFC composite wall without foamed concrete was distortional buckling of cold-formed steel (CFS) column, and that poured foamed concrete includes the local crushing of foamed concrete and local buckling of CFS column, but the former prior to the later. Compared with CSFC composite wall without foamed concrete, the ultimate bearing capacity of spec imens poured A05 grade and A07 grade foamed concrete increased 1.6 times and 2.2 times respectively, and specimen poured foamed concrete had a low vertical deformation. According to these results, the simplified calculation formula for the CSFC wall subjected to axial load was proposed, and the calculated results from this formula are in very good agreement with the test results.

Keywords: cold-formed steel, composite wall, foamed concrete, axial behavior test

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Authors: Helen Frialde-Dupale

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Critical thinking Index (CTI) of 150 third year college students from five State Colleges and Universities (SUCs) in Region I were determined. Only students with Grade Point Average (GPA) of at least 2.0 from four general classification of degree courses, namely: Education, Arts and Sciences, Engineering and Agriculture were included. Specific problem No.1 dealt with the profile variables, namely: age, sex, degree course, monthly family income, number of siblings, high school graduated from, grade point average, personality type, highest educational attainment of parents, and occupation of parents. Problem No. 2 determined the critical thinking index among the respondents. Problem No. 3 investigated whether or not there are significant differences in the critical thinking index among the respondents across the profile variables. While problem No.4 determined whether or not there are significant relationship between the critical thinking index and selected profile variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average of the respondents. Finally, on problem No. 5, the critical thinking instrument which obtained the lowest rates, were used as basis for outlining an intervention program for enhancing critical thinking index (CTI) of students. The following null hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance: there are no significant differences in the critical thinking index of the third college students across the profile variables; there are no significant relationships between the critical thinking index of the respondents and selected variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average.

Keywords: attitude as critical thinker, critical thinking applied, critical thinking index, self-perception as critical thinker

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Authors: Hamed Afrasiab, Saeed Khodaygan

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Prediction of machining process capability in the design stage plays a key role to reach the precision design and manufacturing of mechanical products. Inaccuracies in machining process lead to errors in position and orientation of machined features on the part, and strongly affect the process capability in the final quality of the product. In this paper, an efficient systematic approach is given to investigate the machining errors to predict the manufacturing errors of the parts and capability prediction of corresponding machining processes. A mathematical formulation of fixture locators modeling is presented to establish the relationship between the part errors and the related sources. Based on this method, the final machining errors of the part can be accurately estimated by relating them to the combined dimensional and geometric tolerances of the workpiece – fixture system. This method is developed for uncertainty analysis based on the Worst Case and statistical approaches. The application of the presented method is illustrated through presenting an example and the computational results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results.

Keywords: process capability, machining error, dimensional and geometrical tolerances, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Amitkumar R. Shelar, B. P. Ronge, Sridevi Seshabhattar, R. M. Wabale

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This paper gives knowledge about the behavior of cold rolled steel IS 513_2008 CR2_D having grade D for the reduction of ductile damage. CR specifies Cold Rolled and D for Drawing grade. Problems encountered during sheet metal forming operations are dent, wrinkles, thinning, spring back, insufficient stretching etc. In this paper, wrinkle defect was studied experimentally and by using FE software on one of the auto components due to which its functionality was decreased. Experimental result and simulation result were found to be in agreement.

Keywords: deep drawing, FE software-LS DYNA, friction, wrinkling

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Authors: Francis Nanda Prakash Monteiro, Shyna Quadras, Tanush Shetty

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The association between human physique and morbidity and mortality resulting from coronary artery disease has been studied extensively over several decades. Multiple studies have also been done on the correlation between grade of atherosclerosis, coronary artery diseases and anthropometrical measurements. However, the number of autopsy-based studies drastically reduces this number. It has been suggested that while in living subjects, it would be expensive, difficult, and even harmful to subject them to imaging modalities like CT scans and procedures involving contrast media to study mild atherosclerosis, no such harm is encountered in study of autopsy cases. This autopsy-based study was aimed to correlate the anthropometric measurements and indices of obesity, such as waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), body mass index (BMI) and waist hip ratio (WHR) with the degree of atherosclerosis in the right coronary artery (RCA), main branch of the left coronary artery (LCA) and the left anterior descending artery (LADA) in 95 South Indian origin victims of both the genders between the age of 18 years and 75 years. The grading of atherosclerosis was done according to criteria suggested by the American Heart Association. The study also analysed the correlation of the anthropometric measurements and indices of obesity with the number of coronaries affected with atherosclerosis in an individual. All the anthropometric measurements and the derived indices were found to be significantly correlated to each other in both the genders except for the age, which is found to have a significant correlation only with the WHR. In both the genders severe degree of atherosclerosis was commonly observed in LADA, followed by LCA and RCA. Grade of atherosclerosis in RCA is significantly related to the WHR in males. Grade of atherosclerosis in LCA and LADA is significantly related to the WHR in females. Significant relation was observed between grade of atherosclerosis in RCA and WC, and WHR, and between grade of atherosclerosis in LADA and HC in males. Significant relation was observed between grade of atherosclerosis in RCA and WC, and WHR, and between grade of atherosclerosis in LADA and HC in females. Anthropometric measurements/indices of obesity can be an effective means to identify high risk cases of atherosclerosis at an early stage that can be effective in reducing the associated cardiac morbidity and mortality. A person with anthropometric measurements suggestive of mild atherosclerosis can be advised to modify his lifestyle, along with decreasing his exposure to the other risk factors. Those with measurements suggestive of higher degree of atherosclerosis can be subjected to confirmatory procedures to start effective treatment.

Keywords: atherosclerosis, coronary artery disease, indices, obesity

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Authors: Lulu Sun

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In Addition is an after-school mathematics program in which students and their parents build mathematical confidence and competence by solving problems they curious about. It is a program consists of mix-grade from 4th to 6th grade of 10 to 20 students, including math problem solving and other activities. This partnership will focus on the relationship between the In-Addition and the parents’ engagement; in this kind of partnership, it has the In-Addition program teaching and the family engagement. This partnership is purpose to building cooperation between the program and parents, strengthening the links between the program and families.

Keywords: program-family, family engagement, positive bias, partnership

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

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This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

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The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

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Authors: Lenore Van Den Berg

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Vocabulary development is positively associated with reading development, reading comprehension, and academic achievement. It is frequently stated that South Africa is in the midst of a literacy crisis. The past 24 years since the first democratically elected government have not revolutionised the education system; rather, after various curriculum changes and continued struggles to incorporate all 11 official languages as languages of instruction, research shows that 78 per cent of South African Grade 4 learners are functionally illiterate. The study sets out to find solutions to this problem and to add to the research base on vocabulary acquisition by assessing the effect of integrating the principles of explicit, interactive vocabulary instruction, within the context of storybook reading, on Grade 1 vocabulary acquisition. Participants comprised of 69 Grade 1 English second language learners from three classes in two government primary schools. The two schools differ in socio-economic status (SES), with School A having a lower SES than School B. One Grade 1 class was randomly assigned to be the Experimental Group, while two other classes served as control groups. The intervention took place for a period of 18 weeks and consisted of 30-minute storybook reading sessions, accompanied by interactive vocabulary instruction, twice a week. The Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test IV (PPVT-IV) was the diagnostic test administered to all learners before the intervention, as a pre-test, and after the interventions as a post-test. Data regarding excising vocabulary instruction practices and approaches were also collected through classroom observations and individual, semi-structured interviews with the Experimental Group’s teacher. Findings suggest that second language storybook reading, accompanied by explicit, interactive vocabulary instruction, have a positive impact on Grade 1 vocabulary acquisition but that vocabulary teaching practices and socio-economic status also play a key role in vocabulary acquisition.

Keywords: interactive vocabulary instruction, second language vocabulary, storybook reading, vocabulary acquisition, reading development, PPVT

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Authors: I. Inthanongsone, C. Drebenstedt, J. C. Bongaerts, P. Sontamino

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The major concern in evaluating the value of mining projects related to the deficiency of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method. This method does not take uncertainties into account and, hence it does not allow for an economic assessment of managerial flexibility and operational adaptability, which are increasingly determining long-term corporate success. Such an assessment can be performed with the real options valuation (ROV) approach, since it allows for a comparative evaluation of unforeseen uncertainties in a project life cycle. This paper presents an economic evaluation model for open pit mining projects based on real options valuation approach. Uncertainties in the model are caused by metal prices and cost uncertainties and the system dynamics (SD) modeling method is used to structure and solve the real options model. The model is applied to a case study. It can be shown that that managerial flexibility reacting to uncertainties may create additional value to a mining project in comparison to the outcomes of a DCF method. One important insight for management dealing with uncertainty is seen in choosing the optimal time to exercise strategic options.

Keywords: DCF methods, ROV approach, system dynamics modeling methods, uncertainty

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Hamideh S. Shahidi

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This research examines destination image and its impact on tourist revisit intention. Destination images can evolve over time, depending on a number of factors. Due to the multidimensional nature of destination image, the full extent of what might influence that change is not yet fully understood. As a result, the destination image should be measured with a heavy consideration of the variables used. Depending on the time and circumstances, these variables should be adjusted based on the research’s objectives. The aim of this research is to evaluate the image of destinations that may be perceived as risky, such as Iran, from the perspective of European cultural travellers. Further to the goal of understanding the effects of an image on tourists’ decision-making, the research will assess the impact of destination image on the revisit intention using push and pull factors and perceived risks with the potential moderating effect of cultural contact (the direct interaction between the host and the tourists with different culture). In addition, the moderating effect of uncertainty avoidance on revisit intention after Iran’s crisis in 2022 will be measured. Furthermore, the level of uncertainty avoidance between gender and age will be compared.

Keywords: destination image, Iran’s 2022 crisis, revisit intention, uncertainty avoidance

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Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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Authors: Abigail Amoako Kayser, Brian Kayser

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This study aimed to examine Ghana's 6th-grade Basic School history curriculum to determine how Ghanaian history is taught. We used qualitative methods and document analysis. The document analysis served two primary purposes: (1) To gain insight into what the curriculum materials covered and from whom's perspectives, and (2) To triangulate with teacher interview data. Documents obtained included: (1) Textbooks used by 6th-grade students, (2) Teacher pacing guide provided by the Department of Education in Ghana, and (3) Student work samples. This study was guided through Post-colonial theory and criticisms to explore the remnants of colonial power and hegemony that persist in history curricula used in public schools in Ghana. We also applied African Feminist Thought and Black Feminist Thought to unpack the extent to which issues of patriarchy, race, traditions, underdevelopment, and sexuality impact how we see the experiences of people on the continent. The findings indicated that the remnant of colonial rule persisted in the contents of the history curriculum, and the atrocities of slavery were overlooked or eliminated from the curriculum. The findings also indicated that Ghana's history centered on men's experiences.

Keywords: history, curriculum, decolonialization, culturally relevant pedagogy

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Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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Authors: Suleyman Karabal, Timothy L. Burnett, Egemen Avcu, Andrew H. Sherry, Philip J. Withers

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SA508 Grade 3 steel is widely used in the construction of nuclear pressure vessels, where its fracture toughness plays a critical role in ensuring operational safety and reliability. Understanding the ductile failure mechanisms in this steel grade is crucial for designing robust pressure vessels that can withstand severe nuclear environment conditions. In the present study, round bar specimens of SA508 Grade 3 steel with four distinct notch geometries were subjected to tensile loading while capturing continuous 2D images at 5-second intervals in order to monitor any alterations in their geometries to construct true stress-strain curves of the specimens. 3D reconstructions of X-ray computed tomography (CT) images at high-resolution (a spatial resolution of 0.82 μm) allowed for a comprehensive assessment of the influences of second-phase particles (i.e., manganese sulfide inclusions and cementite particles) on ductile failure initiation as a function of applied plastic strain. Additionally, based on 2D and 3D images, plasticity modeling was executed, and the results were compared to experimental data. A specific ‘two-parameter criterion’ was established and calibrated based on the correlation between stress triaxiality and equivalent plastic strain at failure initiation. The proposed criterion demonstrated substantial agreement with the experimental results, thus enhancing our knowledge of ductile fracture behavior in this steel grade. The implementation of X-ray CT and fractography analysis provided new insights into the diverse roles played by different populations of second-phase particles in fracture initiation under varying stress triaxiality conditions.

Keywords: ductile fracture, two-parameter criterion, x-ray computed tomography, stress triaxiality

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Authors: Muhammad A. Alsubaie, Mubarak K. H. Alhajri, Tarek S. Altowaim

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A repetitive controller designed to accommodate periodic disturbances via state feedback is discussed. Periodic disturbances can be represented by a time delay model in a positive feedback loop acting on system output. A direct use of the small gain theorem solves the periodic disturbances problem via 1) isolating the delay model, 2) finding the overall system representation around the delay model and 3) designing a feedback controller that assures overall system stability and tracking error convergence. This paper addresses uncertainty conditions for the repetitive controller designed in state feedback in either past error feedforward or current error feedback using singular values. The uncertainty investigation is based on the overall system found and the stability condition associated with it; depending on the scheme used, to set an upper/lower limit weighting parameter. This creates a region that should not be exceeded in selecting the weighting parameter which in turns assures performance improvement against system uncertainty. Repetitive control problem can be described in lifted form. This allows the usage of singular values principle in setting the range for the weighting parameter selection. The Simulation results obtained show a tracking error convergence against dynamic system perturbation if the weighting parameter chosen is within the range obtained. Simulation results also show the advantage of weighting parameter usage compared to the case where it is omitted.

Keywords: model mismatch, repetitive control, singular values, state feedback

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Authors: Hossein Afzali

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Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. It is well noted that the accuracy of model predictions is strongly influenced by the appropriateness of model structuring. However, there is relatively inadequate methodological guidance surrounding this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. This presentation aims to discuss issues around model structuring within decision making with a focus on (1) the need for a transparent and evidence-based model structuring process to inform the most appropriate set of structural aspects as the base case analysis; (2) the need to characterise structural uncertainty (If there exist alternative plausible structural assumptions (or judgements), there is a need to appropriately characterise the related structural uncertainty). The presentation will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on how the guidelines developed by national funding bodies address the above issues and identify areas for further improvements. First, a review and analysis of the literature and guidelines developed by PBAC and NICE will be provided. Then, it will be discussed how the issues around model structuring (including structural uncertainty) are not handled and justified in a systematic way within the decision-making process, its potential impact on the quality of public funding decisions, and how it should be presented in submissions to national funding bodies. This presentation represents a contribution to the good modelling practice within the decision-making process. Although the presentation focuses on the PBAC and NICE guidelines, the discussion can be applied more widely to many other national funding bodies that use economic evaluation to inform funding decisions but do not transparently address model structuring issues e.g. the Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) in Australia or the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation, good modelling practice, structural uncertainty

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Authors: Abdullah Abdu Qaseem Shamsan

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Background: Gliomas represent the most frequent, heterogeneous group of tumors arising from glial cells, characterized by difficult monitoring, poor prognosis, and fatality. Tissue biopsy is an established procedure for tumor cell sampling that aids diagnosis, tumor grading, and prediction of prognosis. We studied and compared the levels of liquid biopsy markers in patients with different grades of glioma. Also, it tried to establish the potential association between glioma and specific blood groups antigen. Result: 78 patients were identified, among whom maximum percentage with glioblastoma possessed blood group O+ (53.8%). The second highest frequency had blood group A+ (20.4%), followed by B+ (9.0%) and A- (5.1%), and least with O-. Liquid biopsy biomarkers comprised of ALT, LDH, lymphocytes, Urea, Alkaline phosphatase, AST Neutrophils, and CRP. The levels of all the components increased significantly with the severity of glioma, with maximum levels seen in glioblastoma (grade IV), followed by grade III and grade II respectively. Conclusion: Gliomas possess significant clinical challenges due to their progression with heterogeneous nature and aggressive behavior. Liquid biopsy is a non-invasive approach which aids to establish the status of the patient and determine the tumor grade, therefore may show diagnostic and prognostic utility. Additionally, our study provides evidence to demonstrate the role of ABO blood group antigens in the development of glioma. However, future clinical research on liquid biopsy will improve the sensitivity and specificity of these tests and validate their clinical usefulness to guide treatment approaches.

Keywords: GBM: glioblastoma multiforme, CT: computed tomography, MRI: magnetic resonance imaging, ctRNA: circulating tumor RNA

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Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

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The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

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Authors: A. Dehghani, S. Shirin

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We propose in this article a new configuration of quantum states, |α, β> := |α>×|β>. Which are composed of vector products of two different copies of spin coherent states, |α> and |β>. Some mathematical as well as physical properties of such states are discussed. For instance, it has been shown that the cross products of two coherent vectors remain coherent again. They admit a resolution of the identity through positive definite measures on the complex plane. They represent packets similar to the true coherent states, in other words we would not expect to take spin squeezing in any of the field quadratures Lˆx, Lˆy and Lˆz. Depending on the particular choice of parameters in the above scenarios, they can be converted into the so-called Dicke states which minimize the uncertainty relations of each pair of the angular momentum components.

Keywords: vector (Cross-)products, minimum uncertainty, angular momentum, measurement, Dicke states

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Authors: Pinkey Yaqub

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The aim of this study was to investigate secondary (grades IX and X) students’ attitudes towards learning the English language based on the medium of instruction of the school, the gender of the students and the grade level in which they studied. A further aim was to determine students’ proficiency in the English language according to their gender, the grade level and the medium of instruction of the school. A survey was used to investigate the attitudes of secondary students towards English language learning. Simple random sampling was employed to obtain a representative sample of the target population for the research study as a comprehensive list of established English medium schools, and newly established English medium schools were available. A questionnaire ‘Attitude towards English Language Learning’ (AtELL) was adapted from a research study on Libyan secondary school students’ attitudes towards learning English language. AtELL was reviewed by experts (n=6) and later piloted on a representative sample of secondary students (n= 160). Subsequently, the questionnaire was modified - based on the reviewers’ feedback and lessons learnt during the piloting phase - and directly administered to students of grades 9 and 10 to gather information regarding their attitudes towards learning the English language. Data collection spanned a month and a half. As the data were not normally distributed, the researcher used Mann-Whitney tests to test the hypotheses formulated to investigate students’ attitudes towards learning English as well as proficiency in the language across the medium of instruction of the school, the gender of the students and the grade level of the respondents. Statistical analyses of the data showed that the students of established English medium schools exhibited a positive outlook towards English language learning in terms of the behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects of attitude. A significant difference was observed in the attitudes of male and female students towards learning English where females showed a more positive attitude in terms of behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects as compared to their male counterparts. Moreover, grade 10 students had a more positive attitude towards learning English language in terms of behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects as compared to grade 9 students. Nonetheless, students of newly established English medium schools were more proficient in English as gauged by their examination scores in this subject as compared to their counterparts studying in established English medium schools. Moreover, female students were more proficient in English while students studying in grade 9 were less proficient in English than their seniors studying in grade 10. The findings of this research provide empirical evidence to future researchers wishing to explore the relationship between attitudes towards learning language and variables such as the medium of instruction of the school, gender and the grade level of the students. Furthermore, policymakers might revisit the English curriculum to formulate specific guidelines that promote a positive and gender-balanced outlook towards learning English for male and female students.

Keywords: attitude, behavioral aspect of attitude, cognitive aspect of attitude, emotional aspect of attitude

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Authors: Li-Wei Wu, Chung-Yu Wang

Abstract:

Recently, interest has been generated in the search for a new reference framework for value creation that is centered on the co-creation process. Co-creation implies cooperative value creation between service firms and customers and requires the building of experiences as well as the resolution of problems through the combined effort of the parties in the relationship. For customers, values are always co-created through their participation in services. Customers can ultimately determine the value of the service in use. This new approach emphasizes that a customer’s participation in the service process is considered indispensable to value co-creation. An important feature of service in the context of exchange is co-production, which implies that a certain amount of participation is needed from customers to co-produce a service and hence co-create value. Co-production no doubt helps customers better understand and take charge of their own roles in the service process. Thus, this proposal is to encourage co-production, thus facilitating value co-creation of that is reflected in both customers and service firms. Four determinants of co-production are identified in this study, namely, commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty. Commitment is an essential dimension that directly results in successful cooperative behaviors. Trust helps establish a relational environment that is fundamental to cross-border cooperation. Asset specificity motivates co-production because this determinant may enhance return on asset investment. Decision-making uncertainty prompts customers to collaborate with service firms in making decisions. In other words, customers adjust their roles and are increasingly engaged in co-production when commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty are enhanced. Although studies have examined the preceding effects, to our best knowledge, none has empirically examined the simultaneous effects of all the curvilinear relationships in a single study. When these determinants are excessive, however, customers will not engage in co-production process. In brief, we suggest that the relationships of commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty with co-production are curvilinear or are inverse U-shaped. These new forms of curvilinear relationships have not been identified in existing literature on co-production; therefore, they complement extant linear approaches. Most importantly, we aim to consider both the bright and the dark sides of the determinants of co-production.

Keywords: co-production, commitment, trust, asset specificity, decision-making uncertainty

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Authors: Shawn Thompson

Abstract:

Socrates and Zen Buddhism are separated by time, distance, and cultures in a way that it is unlikely that they influenced each other. And yet the two have an amazing similarity in the principle that paradoxical and unanswerable questions can be a form of wisdom that produces a healthy psyche. Both have a sense that the limit of human awareness is a wisdom of this uncertainty. Both are at odds with the dogma of answers and of a western rationality that prioritizes the answer. Both have enigmatic answers that perpetuate the question. Both use the form of a dialogue of interaction with mutual illumination rather than the form of a lecture to passive recipients. If these premises are true, Socrates and Zen Buddhism has elements in common that reflect basic human needs for a good life. It can be argued that there is a joint archetypal experience of the wisdom of uncertainty and unanswerable questions in Socrates and Zen Buddhism.

Keywords: zen buddhism, socrates, unanswerable questions, aporia

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Authors: André Jesus, Yanjie Zhu, Irwanda Laory

Abstract:

Structural health monitoring is one of the most promising technologies concerning aversion of structural risk and economic savings. Analysts often have to deal with a considerable variety of uncertainties that arise during a monitoring process. Namely the widespread application of numerical models (model-based) is accompanied by a widespread concern about quantifying the uncertainties prevailing in their use. Some of these uncertainties are related with the deterministic nature of the model (code uncertainty) others with the variability of its inputs (parameter uncertainty) and the discrepancy between a model/experiment (systematic uncertainty). The actual process always exhibits a random behaviour (observation error) even when conditions are set identically (residual variation). Bayesian inference assumes that parameters of a model are random variables with an associated PDF, which can be inferred from experimental data. However in many Bayesian methods the determination of systematic uncertainty can be problematic. In this work systematic uncertainty is associated with a discrepancy function. The numerical model and discrepancy function are approximated by Gaussian processes (surrogate model). Finally, to avoid the computational burden of a fully Bayesian approach the parameters that characterise the Gaussian processes were estimated in a four stage process (modular Bayesian approach). The proposed methodology has been successfully applied on fields such as geoscience, biomedics, particle physics but never on the SHM context. This approach considerably reduces the computational burden; although the extent of the considered uncertainties is lower (second order effects are neglected). To successfully identify the considered uncertainties this formulation was extended to consider multiple responses. The efficiency of the algorithm has been tested on a small scale aluminium bridge structure, subjected to a thermal expansion due to infrared heaters. Comparison of its performance with responses measured at different points of the structure and associated degrees of identifiability is also carried out. A numerical FEM model of the structure was developed and the stiffness from its supports is considered as a parameter to calibrate. Results show that the modular Bayesian approach performed best when responses of the same type had the lowest spatial correlation. Based on previous literature, using different types of responses (strain, acceleration, and displacement) should also improve the identifiability problem. Uncertainties due to parametric variability, observation error, residual variability, code variability and systematic uncertainty were all recovered. For this example the algorithm performance was stable and considerably quicker than Bayesian methods that account for the full extent of uncertainties. Future research with real-life examples is required to fully access the advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: bayesian, calibration, numerical model, system identification, systematic uncertainty, Gaussian process

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Authors: Sajjad Farahani, Wilkistar Otieno, Xiaohang Yue

Abstract:

This paper develops a model for the optimal disposition decision for product returns in a remanufacturing system with limited recoverable inventory capacity. In this model, a constant demand is satisfied by remanufacturing returned products which are up to the minimum required quality grade. The quality grade of returned products is uncertain and remanufacturing cost increases as the quality level decreases, and remanufacturer wishes to determine which returned product to accept to be remanufactured for reselling, and any unaccepted returns may be salvaged at a value that increases with their quality level. Accepted returns can be stocked for remanufacturing upon demand requests, but incur a holding cost. A Markov decision problem is formulated in order to evaluate various performance measures for this system and obtain the optimal remanufacturing policy. A detailed numerical study reveals that our approach to the disposition problem outperforms the current industrial practice ignoring quality grade of returned products. In addition, we identify conditions under which this improvement is the highest.

Keywords: green supply chain management, matrix geometric method, production recovery, reverse supply chains

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Authors: Vangmayee V. Subban, Suzan Deelan. Pinto, Somashekara Haralakatta Shivananjappa, Shwetha Prabhu, Jayashree S. Bhat

Abstract:

Introduction and Need: During early years of schooling, the instruction in the schools mainly focus on children’s word decoding abilities. However, the skilled readers should master all the components of reading such as word decoding, reading fluency and comprehension. Nevertheless, the relationship between each component during the process of learning to read is less clear. The studies conducted in alphabetical languages have mixed opinion on relative contribution of word decoding and reading fluency on reading comprehension. However, the scenarios in alphasyllabary languages are unexplored. Aim and Objectives: The aim of the study was to explore the role of word decoding, reading fluency on reading comprehension abilities in children learning to read Kannada between the age ranges of 5.6 to 8.6 years. Method: In this cross sectional study, a total of 60 typically developing children, 20 each from Grade I, Grade II, Grade III maintaining equal gender ratio between the age range of 5.6 to 6.6 years, 6.7 to 7.6 years and 7.7 to 8.6 years respectively were selected from Kannada medium schools. The reading fluency and reading comprehension abilities of the children were assessed using Grade level passages selected from the Kannada text book of children core curriculum. All the passages consist of five questions to assess reading comprehension. The pseudoword decoding skills were assessed using 40 pseudowords with varying syllable length and their Akshara composition. Pseudowords are formed by interchanging the syllables within the meaningful word while maintaining the phonotactic constraints of Kannada language. The assessment material was subjected to content validation and reliability measures before collecting the data on the study samples. The data were collected individually, and reading fluency was assessed for words correctly read per minute. Pseudoword decoding was scored for the accuracy of reading. Results: The descriptive statistics indicated that the mean pseudoword reading, reading comprehension, words accurately read per minute increased with the Grades. The performance of Grade III children found to be higher, Grade I lower and Grade II remained intermediate of Grade III and Grade I. The trend indicated that reading skills gradually improve with the Grades. Pearson’s correlation co-efficient showed moderate and highly significant (p=0.00) positive co-relation between the variables, indicating the interdependency of all the three components required for reading. The hierarchical regression analysis revealed 37% variance in reading comprehension was explained by pseudoword decoding and was highly significant. Subsequent entry of reading fluency measure, there was no significant change in R-square and was only change 3%. Therefore, pseudoword-decoding evolved as a single most significant predictor of reading comprehension during early Grades of reading acquisition. Conclusion: The present study concludes that the pseudoword decoding skills contribute significantly to reading comprehension than reading fluency during initial years of schooling in children learning to read Kannada language.

Keywords: alphasyllabary, pseudo-word decoding, reading comprehension, reading fluency

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Authors: Yingxiao Ye, Christopher Doehring, Angelos Georghiou, Hugh Robinson, Phebe Vayanos

Abstract:

Human development is a threat to biodiversity, and conservation organizations (COs) are purchasing land to protect areas for biodiversity preservation. However, COs have limited budgets and thus face hard prioritization decisions that are confounded by uncertainty in future human land use. This research proposes a data-driven sequential planning model to help COs choose land parcels that minimize the uncertain human impact on biodiversity. The proposed model is robust to uncertain development, and the sequential decision-making process is adaptive, allowing land purchase decisions to adapt to human land use as it unfolds. The cellular automata model is leveraged to simulate land use development based on climate data, land characteristics, and development threat index from NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center. This simulation is used to model uncertainty in the problem. This research leverages state-of-the-art techniques in the robust optimization literature to propose a computationally tractable reformulation of the model, which can be solved routinely by off-the-shelf solvers like Gurobi or CPLEX. Numerical results based on real data from the Jaguar in Central and South America show that the proposed method reduces conservation loss by 19.46% on average compared to standard approaches such as MARXAN used in practice for biodiversity conservation. Our method may better help guide the decision process in land acquisition and thereby allow conservation organizations to maximize the impact of limited resources.

Keywords: data-driven robust optimization, biodiversity conservation, uncertainty simulation, adaptive sequential planning

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Authors: M. Barbouche, M. Hajji, H. Ezzaouia

Abstract:

This project is a step to manufacture solar grade silicon. It consists in designing an electrical arc furnace in order to produce metallurgical silicon Mg-Si with mutually carbon and high purity of silica. It concerns, first, the development of a functional analysis, a mechanical design and thermodynamic study. Our study covers also, the design of the temperature control system and the design of the electric diagrams. The furnace works correctly. A Labview interface was developed to control all parameters and to supervise the operation of furnace. Characterization tests with X-ray technique and Raman spectroscopy allow us to confirm the metallurgical silicon production.

Keywords: arc furnace, electrical design, silicon manufacturing, regulation, x-ray characterization

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Authors: Ahmed Ali Asadi, Julio R. Martinez-Alvarado, Claudia V. Camacho-Guevara, J. Jesus Cabrales-Ruvalcaba, Julieta Y. Islas-Limon, Bertha M. Viñas-Velazquez

Abstract:

The transformation of education in Mexico incorporates human sexuality subjects in its study plans for elementary education level, leaving aside the training of teachers to educate on such topics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the curricular content domain related to human sexuality subjects of public elementary school teachers in Mexico. For this, a transversal descriptive-prospective study with a quantitative focus has been conducted. The population for this study consisted of 109 fifth and sixth-grade teachers from a school zone of the State Education System. It was found in the results that fifth-grade teachers got a low achievement level, sixth-grade teachers got a medium achievement level, while teachers who give classes on both grades obtained a high achievement level on domain of curricular subjects related to sexuality. Likewise, a relation of different variables with the participant’s achievement level is exposed.

Keywords: curricular content, evaluation, sexual education, teacher

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