Search results for: vascular tree
48 Inverted Diameter-Limit Thinning: A Promising Alternative for Mixed Populus tremuloides Stands Management
Authors: Ablo Paul Igor Hounzandji, Benoit Lafleur, Annie DesRochers
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Introduction: Populus tremuloides [Michx] regenerates rapidly and abundantly by root suckering after harvest, creating stands with interconnected stems. Pre-commercial thinning can be used to concentrate growth on fewer stems to reach merchantability faster than un-thinned stands. However, conventional thinning methods are typically designed to reach even spacing between residual stems (1,100 stem ha⁻¹, evenly distributed), which can lead to treated stands consisting of weaker/smaller stems compared to the original stands. Considering the nature of P. tremuloides's regeneration, with large underground biomass of interconnected roots, aiming to keep the most vigorous and largest stems, regardless of their spatial distribution, inverted diameter-limit thinning could be more beneficial to post-thinning stand productivity because it would reduce the imbalance between roots and leaf area caused by thinning. Aims: This study aimed to compare stand and stem productivity of P. tremuloides stands thinned with a conventional thinning treatment (CT; 1,100 stem ha⁻¹, evenly distributed), two levels of inverted diameter-limit thinning (DL1 and DL2, keeping the largest 1100 or 2200 stems ha⁻¹, respectively, regardless of their spatial distribution) and a control unthinned treatment. Because DL treatments can create substantial or frequent gaps in the thinned stands, we also aimed to evaluate the potential of this treatment to recreate mixed conifer-broadleaf stands by fill-planting Picea glauca seedlings. Methods: Three replicate 21 year-old sucker-regenerated aspen stands were thinned in 2010 according to four treatments: CT, DL1, DL2, and un-thinned control. Picea glauca seedlings were underplanted in gaps created by the DL1 and DL2 treatments. Stand productivity per hectare, stem quality (diameter and height, volume stem⁻¹) and survival and height growth of fill-planted P. glauca seedlings were measured 8 year post-treatments. Results: Productivity, volume, diameter, and height were better in the treated stands (CT, DL1, and DL2) than in the un-thinned control. Productivity of CT and DL1 stands was similar 4.8 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. At the tree level, diameter and height of the trees in the DL1 treatment were 5% greater than those in the CT treatment. The average volume of trees in the DL1 treatment was 11% higher than the CT treatment. Survival after 8 years of fill planted P. glauca seedlings was 2% greater in the DL1 than in the DL2 treatment. DL1 treatment also produced taller seedlings (+20 cm). Discussion: Results showed that DL treatments were effective in producing post-thinned stands with larger stems without affecting stand productivity. In addition, we showed that these treatments were suitable to introduce slower growing conifer seedlings such as Picea glauca in order to re-create or maintain mixed stands despite the aggressive nature of P. tremuloides sucker regeneration.Keywords: Aspen, inverted diameter-limit, mixed forest, populus tremuloides, silviculture, thinning
Procedia PDF Downloads 14547 Artificial Intelligence Models for Detecting Spatiotemporal Crop Water Stress in Automating Irrigation Scheduling: A Review
Authors: Elham Koohi, Silvio Jose Gumiere, Hossein Bonakdari, Saeid Homayouni
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Water used in agricultural crops can be managed by irrigation scheduling based on soil moisture levels and plant water stress thresholds. Automated irrigation scheduling limits crop physiological damage and yield reduction. Knowledge of crop water stress monitoring approaches can be effective in optimizing the use of agricultural water. Understanding the physiological mechanisms of crop responding and adapting to water deficit ensures sustainable agricultural management and food supply. This aim could be achieved by analyzing and diagnosing crop characteristics and their interlinkage with the surrounding environment. Assessments of plant functional types (e.g., leaf area and structure, tree height, rate of evapotranspiration, rate of photosynthesis), controlling changes, and irrigated areas mapping. Calculating thresholds of soil water content parameters, crop water use efficiency, and Nitrogen status make irrigation scheduling decisions more accurate by preventing water limitations between irrigations. Combining Remote Sensing (RS), the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Machine Learning Algorithms (MLAs) can improve measurement accuracies and automate irrigation scheduling. This paper is a review structured by surveying about 100 recent research studies to analyze varied approaches in terms of providing high spatial and temporal resolution mapping, sensor-based Variable Rate Application (VRA) mapping, the relation between spectral and thermal reflectance and different features of crop and soil. The other objective is to assess RS indices formed by choosing specific reflectance bands and identifying the correct spectral band to optimize classification techniques and analyze Proximal Optical Sensors (POSs) to control changes. The innovation of this paper can be defined as categorizing evaluation methodologies of precision irrigation (applying the right practice, at the right place, at the right time, with the right quantity) controlled by soil moisture levels and sensitiveness of crops to water stress, into pre-processing, processing (retrieval algorithms), and post-processing parts. Then, the main idea of this research is to analyze the error reasons and/or values in employing different approaches in three proposed parts reported by recent studies. Additionally, as an overview conclusion tried to decompose different approaches to optimizing indices, calibration methods for the sensors, thresholding and prediction models prone to errors, and improvements in classification accuracy for mapping changes.Keywords: agricultural crops, crop water stress detection, irrigation scheduling, precision agriculture, remote sensing
Procedia PDF Downloads 7146 Cytochrome B Diversity and Phylogeny of Egyptian Sheep Breeds
Authors: Othman E. Othman, Agnés Germot, Daniel Petit, Abderrahman Maftah
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Threats to the biodiversity are increasing due to the loss of genetic diversity within the species utilized in agriculture. Due to the progressive substitution of the less productive, locally adapted and native breeds by highly productive breeds, the number of threatened breeds is increased. In these conditions, it is more strategically important than ever to preserve as much the farm animal diversity as possible, to ensure a prompt and proper response to the needs of future generations. Mitochondrial (mtDNA) sequencing has been used to explain the origins of many modern domestic livestock species. Studies based on sequencing of sheep mitochondrial DNA showed that there are five maternal lineages in the world for domestic sheep breeds; A, B, C, D and E. Because of the eastern location of Egypt in the Mediterranean basin and the presence of fat-tailed sheep breeds- character quite common in Turkey and Syria- where genotypes that seem quite primitive, the phylogenetic studies of Egyptian sheep breeds become particularly attractive. We aimed in this work to clarify the genetic affinities, biodiversity and phylogeny of five Egyptian sheep breeds using cytochrome B sequencing. Blood samples were collected from 63 animals belonging to the five tested breeds; Barki, Rahmani, Ossimi, Saidi and Sohagi. The total DNA was extracted and the specific primer allowed the conventional PCR amplification of the cytochrome B region of mtDNA (approximately 1272 bp). PCR amplified products were purified and sequenced. The alignment of Sixty-three samples was done using BioEdit software. DnaSP 5.00 software was used to identify the sequence variation and polymorphic sites in the aligned sequences. The result showed that the presence of 34 polymorphic sites leading to the formation of 18 haplotypes. The haplotype diversity in five tested breeds ranged from 0.676 in Rahmani breed to 0.894 in Sohagi breed. The genetic distances (D) and the average number of pairwise differences (Dxy) between breeds were estimated. The lowest distance was observed between Rahmani and Saidi (D: 1.674 and Dxy: 0.00150) while the highest distance was observed between Ossimi and Sohagi (D: 5.233 and Dxy: 0.00475). Neighbour-joining (Phylogeny) tree was constructed using Mega 5.0 software. The sequences of the 63 analyzed samples were aligned with references sequences of different haplogroups. The phylogeny result showed the presence of three haplogroups (HapA, HapB and HapC) in the 63 examined samples. The other two haplogroups described in literature (HapD and HapE) were not found. The result showed that 50 out of 63 tested animals cluster with haplogroup B (79.37%) whereas 7 tested animals cluster with haplogroup A (11.11%) and 6 animals cluster with haplogroup C (9.52%). In conclusion, the phylogenetic reconstructions showed that the majority of Egyptian sheep breeds belonging to haplogroup B which is the dominant haplogroup in Eastern Mediterranean countries like Syria and Turkey. Some individuals are belonging to haplogroups A and C, suggesting that the crosses were done with other breeds for characteristic selection for growth and wool quality.Keywords: cytochrome B, diversity, phylogheny, Egyptian sheep breeds
Procedia PDF Downloads 37545 Molecular Characterization, Host Plant Resistance and Epidemiology of Bean Common Mosaic Virus Infecting Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp)
Authors: N. Manjunatha, K. T. Rangswamy, N. Nagaraju, H. A. Prameela, P. Rudraswamy, M. Krishnareddy
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The identification of virus in cowpea especially potyviruses is confusing. Even though there are several studies on viruses causing diseases in cowpea, difficult to distinguish based on symptoms and serological detection. The differentiation of potyviruses considering as a constraint, the present study is initiated for molecular characterization, host plant resistance and epidemiology of the BCMV infecting cowpea. The etiological agent causing cowpea mosaic was identified as Bean Common Mosaic Virus (BCMV) on the basis of RT-PCR and electron microscopy. An approximately 750bp PCR product corresponding to coat protein (CP) region of the virus and the presence of long flexuous filamentous particles measuring about 952 nm in size typical to genus potyvirus were observed under electron microscope. The characterized virus isolate genome had 10054 nucleotides, excluding the 3’ terminal poly (A) tail. Comparison of polyprotein of the virus with other potyviruses showed similar genome organization with 9 cleavage sites resulted in 10 functional proteins. The pairwise sequence comparison of individual genes, P1 showed most divergent, but CP gene was less divergent at nucleotide and amino acid level. A phylogenetic tree constructed based on multiple sequence alignments of the polyprotein nucleotide and amino acid sequences of cowpea BCMV and potyviruses showed virus is closely related to BCMV-HB. Whereas, Soybean variant of china (KJ807806) and NL1 isolate (AY112735) showed 93.8 % (5’UTR) and 94.9 % (3’UTR) homology respectively with other BCMV isolates. This virus transmitted to different leguminous plant species and produced systemic symptoms under greenhouse conditions. Out of 100 cowpea genotypes screened, three genotypes viz., IC 8966, V 5 and IC 202806 showed immune reaction in both field and greenhouse conditions. Single marker analysis (SMA) was revealed out of 4 SSR markers linked to BCMV resistance, M135 marker explains 28.2 % of phenotypic variation (R2) and Polymorphic information content (PIC) value of these markers was ranged from 0.23 to 0.37. The correlation and regression analysis showed rainfall, and minimum temperature had significant negative impact and strong relationship with aphid population, whereas weak correlation was observed with disease incidence. Path coefficient analysis revealed most of the weather parameters exerted their indirect contributions to the aphid population and disease incidence except minimum temperature. This study helps to identify specific gaps in knowledge for researchers who may wish to further analyse the science behind complex interactions between vector-virus and host in relation to the environment. The resistant genotypes identified are could be effectively used in resistance breeding programme.Keywords: cowpea, epidemiology, genotypes, virus
Procedia PDF Downloads 23744 Development and Adaptation of a LGBM Machine Learning Model, with a Suitable Concept Drift Detection and Adaptation Technique, for Barcelona Household Electric Load Forecasting During Covid-19 Pandemic Periods (Pre-Pandemic and Strict Lockdown)
Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez
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While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)
Procedia PDF Downloads 10643 Targeting Tumour Survival and Angiogenic Migration after Radiosensitization with an Estrone Analogue in an in vitro Bone Metastasis Model
Authors: Jolene M. Helena, Annie M. Joubert, Peace Mabeta, Magdalena Coetzee, Roy Lakier, Anne E. Mercier
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Targeting the distant tumour and its microenvironment whilst preserving bone density is important in improving the outcomes of patients with bone metastases. 2-Ethyl-3-O-sulphamoyl-estra1,3,5(10)16-tetraene (ESE-16) is an in-silico-designed 2- methoxyestradiol analogue which aimed at enhancing the parent compound’s cytotoxicity and providing a more favourable pharmacokinetic profile. In this study, the potential radiosensitization effects of ESE-16 were investigated in an in vitro bone metastasis model consisting of murine pre-osteoblastic (MC3T3-E1) and pre-osteoclastic (RAW 264.7) bone cells, metastatic prostate (DU 145) and breast (MDA-MB-231) cancer cells, as well as human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs). Cytotoxicity studies were conducted on all cell lines via spectrophotometric quantification of 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5- diphenyltetrazolium bromide. The experimental set-up consisted of flow cytometric analysis of cell cycle progression and apoptosis detection (Annexin V-fluorescein isothiocyanate) to determine the lowest ESE-16 and radiation doses to induce apoptosis and significantly reduce cell viability. Subsequent experiments entailed a 24-hour low-dose ESE-16-exposure followed by a single dose of radiation. Termination proceeded 2, 24 or 48 hours thereafter. The effect of the combination treatment was investigated on osteoclasts via tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) activity- and actin ring formation assays. Tumour cell experiments included investigation of mitotic indices via haematoxylin and eosin staining; pro-apoptotic signalling via spectrophotometric quantification of caspase 3; deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) damage via micronuclei analysis and histone H2A.X phosphorylation (γ-H2A.X); and Western blot analyses of bone morphogenetic protein-7 and matrix metalloproteinase-9. HUVEC experiments included flow cytometric quantification of cell cycle progression and free radical production; fluorescent examination of cytoskeletal morphology; invasion and migration studies on an xCELLigence platform; and Western blot analyses of hypoxia-inducible factor 1-alpha and vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1 and 2. Tumour cells yielded half-maximal growth inhibitory concentration (GI50) values in the nanomolar range. ESE-16 concentrations of 235 nM (DU 145) and 176 nM (MDA-MB-231) and a radiation dose of 4 Gy were found to be significant in cell cycle and apoptosis experiments. Bone and endothelial cells were exposed to the same doses as DU 145 cells. Cytotoxicity studies on bone cells reported that RAW 264.7 cells were more sensitive to the combination treatment than MC3T3-E1 cells. Mature osteoclasts were more sensitive than pre-osteoclasts with respect to TRAP activity. However, actin ring morphology was retained. The mitotic arrest was evident in tumour and endothelial cells in the mitotic index and cell cycle experiments. Increased caspase 3 activity and superoxide production indicated pro-apoptotic signalling in tumour and endothelial cells. Increased micronuclei numbers and γ-H2A.X foci indicated increased DNA damage in tumour cells. Compromised actin and tubulin morphologies and decreased invasion and migration were observed in endothelial cells. Western blot analyses revealed reduced metastatic and angiogenic signalling. ESE-16-induced radiosensitization inhibits metastatic signalling and tumour cell survival whilst preferentially preserving bone cells. This low-dose combination treatment strategy may promote the quality of life of patients with metastatic bone disease. Future studies will include 3-dimensional in-vitro and murine in-vivo models.Keywords: angiogenesis, apoptosis, bone metastasis, cancer, cell migration, cytoskeleton, DNA damage, ESE-16, radiosensitization.
Procedia PDF Downloads 16242 Coping Strategies and Characterization of Vulnerability in the Perspective of Climate Change
Authors: Muhammad Umer Mehmood, Muhammad Luqman, Muhammad Yaseen, Imtiaz Hussain
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Climate change is an arduous fact, which could not be unheeded easily. It is a phenomenon which has brought a collection of challenges for the mankind. Scientists have found many of its negative impacts on the life of human being and the resources on which the life of humanity is dependent. There are many issues which are associated with the factor of prime importance in this study, 'climate change'. Whenever changes happen in nature, they strike the whole globe. Effects of these changes vary from region to region. Climate of every region of this globe is different from the other. Even within a state, country or the province has different climatic conditions. So it is mandatory that the response in that specific region and the coping strategy of this specific region should be according to the prevailing risk. In the present study, the objective was to assess the coping strategies and vulnerability of small landholders. So that a professional suggestion could be made to cope with the vulnerability factor of small farmers. The cross-sectional research design was used with the intervention of quantitative approach. The study was conducted in the Khanewal district, of Punjab, Pakistan. 120 small farmers were interviewed after randomized sampling from the population of respective area. All respondents were above the age of 15 years. A questionnaire was developed after keen observation of facts in the respective area. Content and face validity of the instrument was assessed with SPSS and experts in the field. Data were analyzed through SPSS using descriptive statistics. From the sample of 120, 81.67% of the respondents claimed that the environment is getting warmer and not fit for their present agricultural practices. 84.17% of the sample expressed serious concern that they are disturbed due to change in rainfall pattern and vulnerability towards the climatic effects. On the other hand, they expressed that they are not good at tackling the effects of climate change. Adaptation of coping strategies like change in cropping pattern, use of resistant varieties, varieties with minimum water requirement, intercropping and tree planting was low by more than half of the sample. From the sample 63.33% small farmers said that the coping strategies they adopt are not effective enough. The present study showed that subsistence farming, lack of marketing and overall infrastructure, lack of access to social security networks, limited access to agriculture extension services, inappropriate access to agrometeorological system, unawareness and access to scientific development and low crop yield are the prominent factors which are responsible for the vulnerability of small farmers. A comprehensive study should be conducted at national level so that a national policy could be formulated to cope with the dilemma in future with relevance to climate change. Mainstreaming and collaboration among the researchers and academicians could prove beneficiary in this regard the interest of national leaders’ does matter. Proper policies to avoid the vulnerability factors should be the top priority. The world is taking up this issue with full responsibility as should we, keeping in view the local situation.Keywords: adaptation, coping strategies, climate change, Pakistan, small farmers, vulnerability
Procedia PDF Downloads 14441 Mathematical Toolbox for editing Equations and Geometrical Diagrams and Graphs
Authors: Ayola D. N. Jayamaha, Gihan V. Dias, Surangika Ranathunga
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Currently there are lot of educational tools designed for mathematics. Open source software such as GeoGebra and Octave are bulky in their architectural structure. In addition, there is MathLab software, which facilitates much more than what we ask for. Many of the computer aided online grading and assessment tools require integrating editors to their software. However, there are not exist suitable editors that cater for all their needs in editing equations and geometrical diagrams and graphs. Some of the existing software for editing equations is Alfred’s Equation Editor, Codecogs, DragMath, Maple, MathDox, MathJax, MathMagic, MathFlow, Math-o-mir, Microsoft Equation Editor, MiraiMath, OpenOffice, WIRIS Editor and MyScript. Some of them are commercial, open source, supports handwriting recognition, mobile apps, renders MathML/LaTeX, Flash / Web based and javascript display engines. Some of the diagram editors are GeoKone.NET, Tabulae, Cinderella 1.4, MyScript, Dia, Draw2D touch, Gliffy, GeoGebra, Flowchart, Jgraph, JointJS, J painter Online diagram editor and 2D sketcher. All these software are open source except for MyScript and can be used for editing mathematical diagrams. However, they do not fully cater the needs of a typical computer aided assessment tool or Educational Platform for Mathematics. This solution provides a Web based, lightweight, easy to implement and integrate solution of an html5 canvas that renders on all of the modern web browsers. The scope of the project is an editor that covers equations and mathematical diagrams and drawings on the O/L Mathematical Exam Papers in Sri Lanka. Using the tool the students can enter any equation to the system which can be on an online remote learning platform. The users can also create and edit geometrical drawings, graphs and do geometrical constructions that require only Compass and Ruler from the Editing Interface provided by the Software. The special feature of this software is the geometrical constructions. It allows the users to create geometrical constructions such as angle bisectors, perpendicular lines, angles of 600 and perpendicular bisectors. The tool correctly imitates the functioning of rulers and compasses to create the required geometrical construction. Therefore, the users are able to do geometrical drawings on the computer successfully and we have a digital format of the geometrical drawing for further processing. Secondly, we can create and edit Venn Diagrams, color them and label them. In addition, the students can draw probability tree diagrams and compound probability outcome grids. They can label and mark regions within the grids. Thirdly, students can draw graphs (1st order and 2nd order). They can mark points on a graph paper and the system connects the dots to draw the graph. Further students are able to draw standard shapes such as circles and rectangles by selecting points on a grid or entering the parametric values.Keywords: geometrical drawings, html5 canvas, mathematical equations, toolbox
Procedia PDF Downloads 37840 Seismic Perimeter Surveillance System (Virtual Fence) for Threat Detection and Characterization Using Multiple ML Based Trained Models in Weighted Ensemble Voting
Authors: Vivek Mahadev, Manoj Kumar, Neelu Mathur, Brahm Dutt Pandey
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Perimeter guarding and protection of critical installations require prompt intrusion detection and assessment to take effective countermeasures. Currently, visual and electronic surveillance are the primary methods used for perimeter guarding. These methods can be costly and complicated, requiring careful planning according to the location and terrain. Moreover, these methods often struggle to detect stealthy and camouflaged insurgents. The object of the present work is to devise a surveillance technique using seismic sensors that overcomes the limitations of existing systems. The aim is to improve intrusion detection, assessment, and characterization by utilizing seismic sensors. Most of the similar systems have only two types of intrusion detection capability viz., human or vehicle. In our work we could even categorize further to identify types of intrusion activity such as walking, running, group walking, fence jumping, tunnel digging and vehicular movements. A virtual fence of 60 meters at GCNEP, Bahadurgarh, Haryana, India, was created by installing four underground geophones at a distance of 15 meters each. The signals received from these geophones are then processed to find unique seismic signatures called features. Various feature optimization and selection methodologies, such as LightGBM, Boruta, Random Forest, Logistics, Recursive Feature Elimination, Chi-2 and Pearson Ratio were used to identify the best features for training the machine learning models. The trained models were developed using algorithms such as supervised support vector machine (SVM) classifier, kNN, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, and Artificial Neural Networks. These models were then used to predict the category of events, employing weighted ensemble voting to analyze and combine their results. The models were trained with 1940 training events and results were evaluated with 831 test events. It was observed that using the weighted ensemble voting increased the efficiency of predictions. In this study we successfully developed and deployed the virtual fence using geophones. Since these sensors are passive, do not radiate any energy and are installed underground, it is impossible for intruders to locate and nullify them. Their flexibility, quick and easy installation, low costs, hidden deployment and unattended surveillance make such systems especially suitable for critical installations and remote facilities with difficult terrain. This work demonstrates the potential of utilizing seismic sensors for creating better perimeter guarding and protection systems using multiple machine learning models in weighted ensemble voting. In this study the virtual fence achieved an intruder detection efficiency of over 97%.Keywords: geophone, seismic perimeter surveillance, machine learning, weighted ensemble method
Procedia PDF Downloads 8139 Automated Prediction of HIV-associated Cervical Cancer Patients Using Data Mining Techniques for Survival Analysis
Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy
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Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 8438 An Economic Way to Toughen Poly Acrylic Acid Superabsorbent Polymer Using Hyper Branched Polymer
Authors: Nazila Dehbari, Javad Tavakoli, Yakani Kambu, Youhong Tang
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Superabsorbent hydrogels (SAP), as an enviro-sensitive material have been widely used for industrial and biomedical applications due to their unique structure and capabilities. Poor mechanical properties of SAPs - which is extremely related to their large volume change – count as a great weakness in adopting for high-tech applications. Therefore, improving SAPs’ mechanical properties via toughening methods by mixing different types of cross-linked polymer or introducing energy-dissipating mechanisms is highly focused. In this work, in order to change the intrinsic brittle character of commercialized Poly Acrylic Acid (here as SAP) to be semi-ductile, a commercial available highly branched tree-like dendritic polymers with numerous –OH end groups known as hyper-branched polymer (HB) has been added to PAA-SAP system in a single step, cost effective and environment friendly solvent casting method. Samples were characterized by FTIR, SEM and TEM and their physico-chemical characterization including swelling capabilities, hydraulic permeability, surface tension and thermal properties had been performed. Toughness energy, stiffness, elongation at breaking point, viscoelastic properties and samples extensibility were mechanical properties that had been performed and characterized as a function of samples lateral cracks’ length in different HB concentration. Addition of HB to PAA-SAP significantly improved mechanical and surface properties. Increasing equilibrium swelling ratio by about 25% had been experienced by the SAP-HB samples in comparison with SAPs; however, samples swelling kinetics remained without changes as initial rate of water uptake and equilibrium time haven’t been subjected to any changes. Thermal stability analysis showed that HB is participating in hybrid network formation while improving mechanical properties. Samples characterization by TEM showed that, the aggregated HB polymer binders into nano-spheres with diameter in range of 10–200 nm. So well dispersion in the SAP matrix occurred as it was predictable due to the hydrophilic character of the numerous hydroxyl groups at the end of HB which enhance the compatibility of HB with PAA-SAP. As the profused -OH groups in HB could react with -COOH groups in the PAA-SAP during the curing process, the formation of a 2D structure in the SAP-HB could be attributed to the strong interfacial adhesion between HB and the PAA-SAP matrix which hinders the activity of PAA chains (SEM analysis). FTIR spectra introduced new peaks at 1041 and 1121 cm-1 that attributed to the C–O(–OH) stretching hydroxyl and O–C stretching ester groups of HB polymer binder indicating the incorporation of HB polymer into the SAP structure. SAP-HB polymer has significant effects on the final mechanical properties. The brittleness of PAA hydrogels are decreased by introducing HB as the fracture energies of hydrogels increased from 8.67 to 26.67. PAA-HBs’ stretch ability enhanced about 10 folds while reduced as a function of different notches depth.Keywords: superabsorbent polymer, toughening, viscoelastic properties, hydrogel network
Procedia PDF Downloads 32337 Post Harvest Fungi Diversity and Level of Aflatoxin Contamination in Stored Maize: Cases of Kitui, Nakuru and Trans-Nzoia Counties in Kenya
Authors: Gachara Grace, Kebira Anthony, Harvey Jagger, Wainaina James
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Aflatoxin contamination of maize in Africa poses a major threat to food security and the health of many African people. In Kenya, aflatoxin contamination of maize is high due to the environmental, agricultural and socio-economic factors. Many studies have been conducted to understand the scope of the problem, especially at pre-harvest level. This research was carried out to gather scientific information on the fungi population, diversity and aflatoxin level during the post-harvest period. The study was conducted in three geographical locations of; Kitui, Kitale and Nakuru. Samples were collected from storage structures of farmers and transported to the Biosciences eastern and central Africa (BecA), International Livestock and Research Institute (ILRI) hub laboratories. Mycoflora was recovered using the direct plating method. A total of five fungal genera (Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium, Rhizopus and Bssyochlamys spp.) were isolated from the stored maize samples. The most common fungal species that were isolated from the three study sites included A. flavus at 82.03% followed by A.niger and F.solani at 49% and 26% respectively. The aflatoxin producing fungi A. flavus was recovered in 82.03% of the samples. Aflatoxin levels were analysed on both the maize samples and in vitro. Most of the A. flavus isolates recorded a high level of aflatoxin when they were analysed for presence of aflatoxin B1 using ELISA. In Kitui, all the samples (100%) had aflatoxin levels above 10ppb with a total aflatoxin mean of 219.2ppb. In Kitale, only 3 samples (n=39) had their aflatoxin levels less than 10ppb while in Nakuru, the total aflatoxin mean level of this region was 239.7ppb. When individual samples were analysed using Vicam fluorometer method, aflatoxin analysis revealed that most of the samples (58.4%) had been contaminated. The means were significantly different (p=0.00<0.05) in all the three locations. Genetic relationships of A. flavus isolates were determined using 13 Simple Sequence Repeats (SSRs) markers. The results were used to generate a phylogenetic tree using DARwin5 software program. A total of 5 distinct clusters were revealed among the genotypes. The isolates appeared to cluster separately according to the geographical locations. Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) of the genetic distances among the 91 A. flavus isolates explained over 50.3% of the total variation when two coordinates were used to cluster the isolates. Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) showed a high variation of 87% within populations and 13% among populations. This research has shown that A. flavus is the main fungal species infecting maize grains in Kenya. The influence of aflatoxins on human populations in Kenya demonstrates a clear need for tools to manage contamination of locally produced maize. Food basket surveys for aflatoxin contamination should be conducted on a regular basis. This would assist in obtaining reliable data on aflatoxin incidence in different food crops. This would go a long way in defining control strategies for this menace.Keywords: aflatoxin, Aspergillus flavus, genotyping, Kenya
Procedia PDF Downloads 27836 Effective Health Promotion Interventions Help Young Children to Maximize Their Future Well-Being by Early Childhood Development
Authors: Nadeesha Sewwandi, Dilini Shashikala, R. Kanapathy, S. Viyasan, R. M. S. Kumara, Duminda Guruge
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Early childhood development is important to the emotional, social, and physical development of young children and it has a direct effect on their overall development and on the adult they become. Play is so important to optimal child developments including skill development, social development, imagination, creativity and it fulfills a baby’s inborn need to learn. So, health promotion approach empowers people about the development of early childhood. Play area is a new concept and this study focus how this play areas helps to the development of early childhood of children in rural villages in Sri Lanka. This study was conducted with a children society in a rural village called Welankulama in Sri Lanka. Survey was conducted with children society about emotional, social and physical development of young children (Under age eight) in this village using questionnaires. It described most children under eight years age have poor level of emotional, social and physical development in this village. Then children society wanted to find determinants for this problem and among them they prioritized determinants like parental interactions, learning environment and social interaction and address them using an innovative concept called play area. In this village there is a common place as play area under a big tamarind tree. It consists of a playhouse, innovative playing toys, mobile library, etc. Twice a week children, parents, grandparents gather to this nice place. Collective feeding takes place in this area once a week and it was conducted by several mothers groups in this village. Mostly grandparents taught about handicrafts and this is a very nice place to share their experiences with all. Healthy competitions were conducted in this place through playing to motivate the children. Happy calendar (mood of the children) was marked by children before and after coming to the play area. In terms of results qualitative changes got significant place in this study. By learning about colors and counting through playing the thinking and reasoning skills got developed among children. Children were widening their imagination by means of storytelling. We observed there were good developments of fine and gross motor skills of two differently abled children in this village. Children learn to empathize with other people, sharing, collaboration, team work and following of rules. And also children gain knowledge about fairness, through role playing, obtained insight on the right ways of displaying emotions such as stress, fear, anger, frustration, and develops knowledge of how they can manage their feelings. The reading and writing ability of the children got improved by 83% because of the mobile library. The weight of children got increased by 81% in the village. Happiness was increased by 76% among children in the society. Playing is very important for learning during early childhood period of a person. Health promotion interventions play a major role to the development of early childhood and it help children to adjust to the school setting and even to enhance children’s learning readiness, learning behaviors and problem solving skills.Keywords: early childhood development, health promotion approach, play and learning, working with children
Procedia PDF Downloads 14035 Automatic Adult Age Estimation Using Deep Learning of the ResNeXt Model Based on CT Reconstruction Images of the Costal Cartilage
Authors: Ting Lu, Ya-Ru Diao, Fei Fan, Ye Xue, Lei Shi, Xian-e Tang, Meng-jun Zhan, Zhen-hua Deng
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Accurate adult age estimation (AAE) is a significant and challenging task in forensic and archeology fields. Attempts have been made to explore optimal adult age metrics, and the rib is considered a potential age marker. The traditional way is to extract age-related features designed by experts from macroscopic or radiological images followed by classification or regression analysis. Those results still have not met the high-level requirements for practice, and the limitation of using feature design and manual extraction methods is loss of information since the features are likely not designed explicitly for extracting information relevant to age. Deep learning (DL) has recently garnered much interest in imaging learning and computer vision. It enables learning features that are important without a prior bias or hypothesis and could be supportive of AAE. This study aimed to develop DL models for AAE based on CT images and compare their performance to the manual visual scoring method. Chest CT data were reconstructed using volume rendering (VR). Retrospective data of 2500 patients aged 20.00-69.99 years were obtained between December 2019 and September 2021. Five-fold cross-validation was performed, and datasets were randomly split into training and validation sets in a 4:1 ratio for each fold. Before feeding the inputs into networks, all images were augmented with random rotation and vertical flip, normalized, and resized to 224×224 pixels. ResNeXt was chosen as the DL baseline due to its advantages of higher efficiency and accuracy in image classification. Mean absolute error (MAE) was the primary parameter. Independent data from 100 patients acquired between March and April 2022 were used as a test set. The manual method completely followed the prior study, which reported the lowest MAEs (5.31 in males and 6.72 in females) among similar studies. CT data and VR images were used. The radiation density of the first costal cartilage was recorded using CT data on the workstation. The osseous and calcified projections of the 1 to 7 costal cartilages were scored based on VR images using an eight-stage staging technique. According to the results of the prior study, the optimal models were the decision tree regression model in males and the stepwise multiple linear regression equation in females. Predicted ages of the test set were calculated separately using different models by sex. A total of 2600 patients (training and validation sets, mean age=45.19 years±14.20 [SD]; test set, mean age=46.57±9.66) were evaluated in this study. Of ResNeXt model training, MAEs were obtained with 3.95 in males and 3.65 in females. Based on the test set, DL achieved MAEs of 4.05 in males and 4.54 in females, which were far better than the MAEs of 8.90 and 6.42 respectively, for the manual method. Those results showed that the DL of the ResNeXt model outperformed the manual method in AAE based on CT reconstruction of the costal cartilage and the developed system may be a supportive tool for AAE.Keywords: forensic anthropology, age determination by the skeleton, costal cartilage, CT, deep learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 7434 Screening of Freezing Tolerance in Eucalyptus Genotypes (Eucalyptus spp.) Using Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Ionic Leakage, Proline Accumulation and Stomatal Density
Authors: S. Lahijanian, M. Mobli, B. Baninasab, N. Etemadi
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Low temperature extremes are amongst the major stresses that adversely affect the plant growth and productivity. Cold stress causes oxidative stress, physiological, morphological and biochemical changes in plant cells. Generally, low temperatures similar to salinity and drought exert their negative effects mainly by disrupting the ionic and osmotic equilibrium of the plant cells. Changes in climatic condition leading to more frequent extreme conditions will require adapted crop species on a larger scale in order to sustain agricultural production. Eucalyptus is a diverse genus of flowering trees (and a few shrubs) in the myrtle family, Myrtaceae. Members of this genus dominate the tree flora of Australia. The eucalyptus genus contains more than 580 species and large number of cultivars, which are native to Australia. Large distribution and diversity of compatible eucalyptus cultivars reflect the fact of ecological flexibility of eucalyptus. Some eucalyptus cultivars can sustain hard environmental conditions like high and low temperature, salinity, high level of PH, drought, chilling and freezing which are intensively effective on crops with tropical and subtropical origin. In this study, we tried to evaluate freezing tolerance of 12 eucalyptus genotypes by means of four different morphological and physiological methods: Chlorophyll fluorescence, electrolyte leakage, proline and stomatal density. The studied cultivars include Eucalyptus camaldulensis, E. coccifera, E. darlympleana, E. erythrocorys, E. glaucescens, E. globulus, E. gunnii, E. macrocorpa, E. microtheca, E. rubida, E. tereticornis, and E. urnigera. Except for stomatal density recording, in other methods, plants were exposed to five gradual temperature drops: zero, -5, -10, -15 and -20 degree of centigrade and they remained in these temperatures for at least one hour. Experiment for measuring chlorophyll fluorescence showed that genotypes E. erythrocorys and E. camaldulensis were the most resistant genotypes and E. gunnii and E.coccifera were more sensitive than other genotypes to freezing stress effects. In electrolyte leakage experiment with regard to significant interaction between cultivar and temperature, genotypes E. erythrocorys and E.macrocorpa were shown to be the most tolerant genotypes and E. gunnii, E. urnigera, E. microtheca and E. tereticornis with the more ionic leakage percentage showed to be more sensitive to low temperatures. Results of Proline experiment approved that the most resistant genotype to freezing stress is E. erythrocorys. In the stomatal density experiment, the numbers of stomata under microscopic field were totally counted and the results showed that the E. erythrocorys and E. macrocorpa genotypes had the maximum and E. coccifera and E. darlympleana genotypes had minimum number of stomata under microscopic field (0.0605 mm2). In conclusion, E. erythrocorys identified as the most tolerant genotype; meanwhile E. gunnii classified as the most freezing susceptible genotype in this investigation. Further, remarkable correlation was not obtained between the stomatal density and other cold stress measures.Keywords: chlorophyll fluorescence, cold stress, ionic leakage, proline, stomatal density
Procedia PDF Downloads 26533 Modelling the Art Historical Canon: The Use of Dynamic Computer Models in Deconstructing the Canon
Authors: Laura M. F. Bertens
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There is a long tradition of visually representing the art historical canon, in schematic overviews and diagrams. This is indicative of the desire for scientific, ‘objective’ knowledge of the kind (seemingly) produced in the natural sciences. These diagrams will, however, always retain an element of subjectivity and the modelling methods colour our perception of the represented information. In recent decades visualisations of art historical data, such as hand-drawn diagrams in textbooks, have been extended to include digital, computational tools. These tools significantly increase modelling strength and functionality. As such, they might be used to deconstruct and amend the very problem caused by traditional visualisations of the canon. In this paper, the use of digital tools for modelling the art historical canon is studied, in order to draw attention to the artificial nature of the static models that art historians are presented with in textbooks and lectures, as well as to explore the potential of digital, dynamic tools in creating new models. To study the way diagrams of the canon mediate the represented information, two modelling methods have been used on two case studies of existing diagrams. The tree diagram Stammbaum der neudeutschen Kunst (1823) by Ferdinand Olivier has been translated to a social network using the program Visone, and the famous flow chart Cubism and Abstract Art (1936) by Alfred Barr has been translated to an ontological model using Protégé Ontology Editor. The implications of the modelling decisions have been analysed in an art historical context. The aim of this project has been twofold. On the one hand the translation process makes explicit the design choices in the original diagrams, which reflect hidden assumptions about the Western canon. Ways of organizing data (for instance ordering art according to artist) have come to feel natural and neutral and implicit biases and the historically uneven distribution of power have resulted in underrepresentation of groups of artists. Over the last decades, scholars from fields such as Feminist Studies, Postcolonial Studies and Gender Studies have considered this problem and tried to remedy it. The translation presented here adds to this deconstruction by defamiliarizing the traditional models and analysing the process of reconstructing new models, step by step, taking into account theoretical critiques of the canon, such as the feminist perspective discussed by Griselda Pollock, amongst others. On the other hand, the project has served as a pilot study for the use of digital modelling tools in creating dynamic visualisations of the canon for education and museum purposes. Dynamic computer models introduce functionalities that allow new ways of ordering and visualising the artworks in the canon. As such, they could form a powerful tool in the training of new art historians, introducing a broader and more diverse view on the traditional canon. Although modelling will always imply a simplification and therefore a distortion of reality, new modelling techniques can help us get a better sense of the limitations of earlier models and can provide new perspectives on already established knowledge.Keywords: canon, ontological modelling, Protege Ontology Editor, social network modelling, Visone
Procedia PDF Downloads 12832 DNA Barcoding for Identification of Dengue Vectors from Assam and Arunachal Pradesh: North-Eastern States in India
Authors: Monika Soni, Shovonlal Bhowmick, Chandra Bhattacharya, Jitendra Sharma, Prafulla Dutta, Jagadish Mahanta
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Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are considered as two major vectors to transmit dengue virus. In North-east India, two states viz. Assam and Arunachal Pradesh are known to be high endemic zone for dengue and Chikungunya viral infection. The taxonomical classification of medically important vectors are important for mapping of actual evolutionary trends and epidemiological studies. However, misidentification of mosquito species in field-collected mosquito specimens could have a negative impact which may affect vector-borne disease control policy. DNA barcoding is a prominent method to record available species, differentiate from new addition and change of population structure. In this study, a combined approach of a morphological and molecular technique of DNA barcoding was adopted to explore sequence variation in mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene within dengue vectors. The study has revealed the map distribution of the dengue vector from two states i.e. Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, India. Approximate five hundred mosquito specimens were collected from different parts of two states, and their morphological features were compared with the taxonomic keys. The analysis of detailed taxonomic study revealed identification of two species Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The species aegypti comprised of 66.6% of the specimen and represented as dominant dengue vector species. The sequences obtained through standard DNA barcoding protocol were compared with public databases, viz. GenBank and BOLD. The sequences of all Aedes albopictus have shown 100% similarity whereas sequence of Aedes aegypti has shown 99.77 - 100% similarity of COI gene with that of different geographically located same species based on BOLD database search. From dengue prevalent different geographical regions fifty-nine sequences were retrieved from NCBI and BOLD databases of the same and related taxa to determine the evolutionary distance model based on the phylogenetic analysis. Neighbor-Joining (NJ) and Maximum Likelihood (ML) phylogenetic tree was constructed in MEGA6.06 software with 1000 bootstrap replicates using Kimura-2-Parameter model. Data were analyzed for sequence divergence and found that intraspecific divergence ranged from 0.0 to 2.0% and interspecific divergence ranged from 11.0 to 12.0%. The transitional and transversional substitutions were tested individually. The sequences were deposited in NCBI: GenBank database. This observation claimed the first DNA barcoding analysis of Aedes mosquitoes from North-eastern states in India and also confirmed the range expansion of two important mosquito species. Overall, this study insight into the molecular ecology of the dengue vectors from North-eastern India which will enhance the understanding to improve the existing entomological surveillance and vector incrimination program.Keywords: COI, dengue vectors, DNA barcoding, molecular identification, North-east India, phylogenetics
Procedia PDF Downloads 30431 Circulating Public Perception on Agroforestry: Discourse Networks Analysis Using Social Media and Online News Media in Four Countries of the Sahel Region
Authors: Luisa Müting, Wisnu Harto Adiwijoyo
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Agroforestry systems transform the agricultural landscapes in the Sahel region of Africa, providing food and farming products consumed for subsistence or sold for income. In the incrementally dry climate of the Sahel region, the spreading of agroforestry practices is integral for policymaker efforts to counteract land degradation and provide soil restoration in the region. Several measures on agroforestry practices have been implemented in the region by governmental and non-governmental institutions in recent years. However, despite the efforts, past research shows that awareness of how policies and interventions are being consumed and perceived by the public remains low. Therefore, interpreting public policy dilemmas by analyzing the public perception regarding agroforestry concepts and practices is necessary. Public perceptions and discourses can be an essential driver or constraint for the adoption of agroforestry practices in the region. Thus, understanding the public discourse behavior of crucial stakeholders could assist policymakers in developing inclusive and contextual policies that are relevant to the context of agroforestry adoption in Sahel region. To answer how information about agroforestry spreads and is perceived by the public. As internet usage increased drastically over the past decade, reaching a share of 33 percent of the population being connected to the internet, this research is based on online conversation data. Social media data from Facebook are gathered daily between April 2021 and April 2022 in Djibouti, Senegal, Mali, and Nigeria based on their share of active internet users compared to other countries in the Sahel region. A systematic methodology was applied to the extracted social media using discourse network analysis (DNA). This study then clustered the data by the types of agroforestry practices, sentiments, and country. Additionally, this research extracted the text data from online news media during the same period to pinpoint events related to the topic of agroforestry. The preliminary result indicates that tree management, crops, and livestock integration, diversifying species and genetic resources, and focusing on interactions and productivity across the agricultural system; are the most notable keywords in agroforestry-related conversations within the four countries in the Sahel region. Additionally, approximately 84 percent of the discussions were still dominated by big actors, such as NGO or government actors. Furthermore, as a subject of communication within agroforestry discourse, the Great Green Wall initiative generates almost 60 percent positive sentiment within the captured social media data, effectively having a more significant outreach than general agroforestry topics. This study provides an understanding for scholars and policymakers with a springboard for further research or policy design on agroforestry in the four countries of the Sahel region with systematically uncaptured novel data from the internet.Keywords: sahel, djibouti, senegal, mali, nigeria, social networks analysis, public discourse analysis, sentiment analysis, content analysis, social media, online news, agroforestry, land restoration
Procedia PDF Downloads 10430 Co-management Organizations: A Way to Facilitate Sustainable Management of the Sundarbans Mangrove Forests of Bangladesh
Authors: Md. Wasiul Islam, Md. Jamius Shams Sowrov
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The Sundarbans is the largest single tract of mangrove forest in the world. This is located in the southwest corner of Bangladesh. This is a unique ecosystem which is a great breeding and nursing ground for a great biodiversity. It supports the livelihood of about 3.5 million coastal dwellers and also protects the coastal belt and inland areas from various natural calamities. Historically, the management of the Sundarbans was controlled by the Bangladesh Forest Department following top-down approach without the involvement of local communities. Such fence and fining-based blue-print approach was not effective to protect the forest which caused Sundarbans to degrade severely in the recent past. Fifty percent of the total tree cover has been lost in the last 30 years. Therefore, local multi-stakeholder based bottom-up co-management approach was introduced at some of the parts of the Sundarbans in 2006 to improve the biodiversity status by enhancing the protection level of the forest. Various co-management organizations were introduced under co-management approach where the local community people could actively involve in various activities related to the management and welfare of the Sundarbans including the decision-making process to achieve the goal. From this backdrop, the objective of the study was to assess the performance of co-management organizations to facilitate sustainable management of the Sundarbans mangrove forests. The qualitative study followed face-to-face interview to collect data using two sets of semi-structured questionnaires. A total of 40 respondents participated in the research that was from eight villagers under two forest ranges. 32 representatives from the local communities as well as 8 official representatives involved in co-management approach were interviewed using snowball sampling technique. The study shows that the co-management approach improved governance system of the Sundarbans through active participation of the local community people and their interactions with the officials via the platform of co-management organizations. It facilitated accountability and transparency system to some extent through following some formal and informal rules and regulations. It also improved the power structure of the management process by fostering local empowerment process particularly the women. Moreover, people were able to learn from their interactions with and within the co-management organizations as well as interventions improved environmental awareness and promoted social learning. The respondents considered good governance as the most important factor for achieving the goal of sustainable management and biodiversity conservation of the Sundarbans. The success of co-management planning process also depends on the active and functional participation of different stakeholders including the local communities where co-management organizations were considered as the most functional platform. However, the governance system was also facing various challenges which resulted in barriers to the sustainable management of the Sundarbans mangrove forest. But still there were some members involved in illegal forest operations and created obstacles against sustainable management of the Sundarbans. Respondents recommended greater patronization from the government, financial and logistic incentives for alternative income generation opportunities with effective participatory monitoring and evaluation system to improve sustainable management of the Sundarbans.Keywords: Bangladesh, co-management approach, co-management organizations, governance, Sundarbans, sustainable management
Procedia PDF Downloads 17929 Effects of Abiotic Stress on the Phytochemical Content and Bioactivity of Pistacia lentiscus L.
Authors: S. Mamoucha, N. Tsafantakis, Α. Ioannidis, S. Chatzipanagiotou, C. Nikolaou, L. Skaltsounis, N. Fokialakis, N. Christodoulakis
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Introduction: Plant secondary metabolites (SM) can be grouped into three chemically distinct groups: terpenes, phenolics, and nitrogen-containing compounds. For many years the adaptive significance of SM was unknown. They were thought to be functionless end-products. Currently it is accepted that many secondary metabolites (also known as natural products) have important ecological roles in plants. For instance, they serve as attractants (odor, color, taste) for pollinators and seed-dispersing animals. Moreover, they protect plants from herbivores, microbial pathogens and from environmental stress (high and low temperatures, drought, alkalinity, salinity, radiation etc). It is well known that both biotic and abiotic stress often increase the accumulation of SM. The local climatic conditions, seasonal changes, external factors such as light, temperature, humidity affect the biosynthesis and composition of secondary metabolites. A well known dioecious evergreen plant, Pistacia lentiscus L. (mastic tree), was selected in order to study the metabolic variations occur in response to the different climate conditions, due to the seasonal variation and its effect on the biosynthesis of bioactive compounds. Materials-methods: Young and mature leaves were collected in January and July 2014, dried and extracted by accelerated solvent extraction (Dionex ASE™ 350) using solvents of increased polarity (DCM, MeOH, and H2O). GC-MS and UHPLC-HRMS analysis were carried out in order to define the nature and the relative abundance of SM. The antibacterial activity was evaluated by using the Agar Disc Diffusion Assay against ATCC and clinical isolates strains: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Candida albicans, Streptococcus mutans and Klebsiella pneumoniae. All tests were carried out in duplicate and the average radii of the inhibition zones were calculated for each extract. Results: According to the phytochemical profile obtained from each extract, the biosynthesis of SM varied both qualitatively and quantitatively under the two different types of seasonal stress. With exception of the biologically inactive nonpolar DCM extract of July, all extracts inhibited the growth of most of the investigated microorganisms. A clear positive correlation has been observed between the relative abundance of SM and the bioactivity of the DCM extracts of January and July. Observed changes during phytochemical analysis were mainly focused on the triterpenoid content. On the other hand, the bioactivity of the polar extracts (MeOH and H2O) of January and July resulted practically invariable against most of the microorganisms, besides the significant variation of the SM content due to the seasonal variation. Conclusion: Our results clearly confirmed the hypothesis of abiotic stress as an important regulating factor that significantly affects the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites and thus the presence of bioactive compounds. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by IKY - State Scholarship Foundation, Athens, Greece.Keywords: antibacterial screening, phytochemical profile, Pistacia lentiscus, abiotic stress
Procedia PDF Downloads 25828 A Designing 3D Model: Castle of the Mall-Dern
Authors: Nanadcha Sinjindawong
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This article discusses the design process of a community mall called Castle of The Mall-dern. The concept behind this mall is to combine elements of a medieval castle with modern architecture. The author aims to create a building that fits into the surroundings while also providing users with the vibes of the ancient era. The total area used for the mall is 4,000 square meters, with three floors. The first floor is 1,500 square meters, the second floor is 1,750 square meters, and the third floor is 750 square meters. Research Aim: The aim of this research is to design a community mall that sells ancient clothes and accessories, and to combine sustainable architectural design with the ideas of ancient architecture in an urban area with convenient transportation. Methodology: The research utilizes qualitative research methods in architectural design. The process begins with calculating the given area and dividing it into different zones. The author then sketches and draws the plan of each floor, adding the necessary rooms based on the floor areas mentioned earlier. The program "SketchUp" is used to create an online 3D model of the community mall, and a physical model is built for presentation purposes on A1 paper, explaining all the details. Findings: The result of this research is a community mall with various amenities. The first floor includes retail shops, clothing stores, a food center, and a service zone. Additionally, there is an indoor garden with a fountain and a tree for relaxation. The second and third floors feature a void in the middle, with a few stores, cafes, restaurants, and studios on the second floor. The third floor is home to the administration and security control room, as well as a community gathering area designed as a public library with a café inside. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to the field of sustainable architectural design by combining ancient architectural ideas with modern elements. It showcases the potential for creating buildings that blend historical aesthetics with contemporary functionality. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data for this research is collected through a combination of area calculation, sketching, and building a 3D model. The analysis involves evaluating the design based on the allocated area, zoning, and functional requirements for a community mall. Question Addressed: The research addresses the question of how to design a community mall with a theme of ancient Medieval and Victorian eras. It explores how to combine sustainable architectural design principles with historical aesthetics to create a functional and visually appealing space. Conclusion: In conclusion, this research successfully designs a community mall called “Castle of The Mall-dern” that incorporates elements of Medieval and Victorian architecture. The building encompasses various zones, including retail shops, restaurants, community gathering areas, and service zones. It also features an interior garden and a public library within the mall. The research contributes to the field of sustainable architectural design by showcasing the potential for combining ancient architectural ideas with modern elements in an urban setting.Keywords: 3D model, community mall, modern architecture, medieval architecture
Procedia PDF Downloads 10827 Socio-Economic Insight of the Secondary Housing Market in Colombo Suburbs: Seller’s Point of Views
Authors: R. G. Ariyawansa, M. A. N. R. M. Perera
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“House” is a powerful symbol of socio-economic background of individuals and families. In fact, housing provides all types of needs/wants from basic needs to self-actualization needs. This phenomenon can be realized only having analyzed hidden motives of buyers and sellers of the housing market. Hence, the aim of this study is to examine the socio-economic insight of the secondary housing market in Colombo suburbs. This broader aim was achieved via analyzing the general pattern of the secondary housing market, identifying socio-economic motives of sellers of the secondary housing market, and reviewing sellers’ experience of buyer behavior. A purposive sample of 50 sellers from popular residential areas in Colombo such as Maharagama, Kottawa, Piliyandala, Punnipitiya, and Nugegoda was used to collect primary data instead of relevant secondary data from published and unpublished reports. The sample was limited to selling price ranging from Rs15 million to Rs25 million, which apparently falls into middle and upper-middle income houses in the context. Participatory observation and semi-structured interviews were adopted as key data collection tools. Data were descriptively analyzed. This study found that the market is mainly handled by informal agents who are unqualified and unorganized. People such as taxi/tree-wheel drivers, boutique venders, security personals etc. are engaged in housing brokerage as a part time career. Few fulltime and formally organized agents were found but they were also not professionally qualified. As far as housing quality is concerned, it was observed that 90% of houses was poorly maintained and illegally modified. They are situated in poorly maintained neighborhoods as well. Among the observed houses, 2% was moderately maintained and 8% was well maintained and modified. Major socio-economic motives of sellers were “migrating foreign countries for education and employment” (80% and 10% respectively), “family problems” (4%), and “social status” (3%). Other motives were “health” and “environmental/neighborhood problems” (3%). This study further noted that the secondary middle income housing market in the area directly related with the migrants who motivated for education in foreign countries, mainly Australia, UK and USA. As per the literature, families motivated for education tend to migrate Colombo suburbs from remote areas of the country. They are seeking temporary accommodation in lower middle income housing. However, the secondary middle income housing market relates with the migration from Colombo to major global cities. Therefore, final transaction price of this market may depend on migration related dates such as university deadlines, visa and other agreements. Hence, it creates a buyers’ market lowering the selling price. Also it was revealed that the buyers tend to trust more on this market as far as the quality of construction of houses is concerned than brand new houses which are built for selling purpose.Keywords: informal housing market, hidden motives of buyers and sellers, secondary housing market, socio-economic insight
Procedia PDF Downloads 16826 Genetic Polymorphism and Insilico Study Epitope Block 2 MSP1 Gene of Plasmodium falciparum Isolate Endemic Jayapura
Authors: Arsyam Mawardi, Sony Suhandono, Azzania Fibriani, Fifi Fitriyah Masduki
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Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium sp. This disease has a high prevalence in Indonesia, especially in Jayapura. The vaccine that is currently being developed has not been effective in overcoming malaria. This is due to the high polymorphism in the Plasmodium genome especially in areas that encode Plasmodium surface proteins. Merozoite Surface Protein 1 (MSP1) Plasmodium falciparum is a surface protein that plays a role in the invasion process in human erythrocytes through the interaction of Glycophorin A protein receptors and sialic acid in erythrocytes with Reticulocyte Binding Proteins (RBP) and Duffy Adhesion Protein (DAP) ligands in merozoites. MSP1 can be targeted to be a specific antigen and predicted epitope area which will be used for the development of diagnostic and malaria vaccine therapy. MSP1 consists of 17 blocks, each block is dimorphic, and has been marked as the K1 and MAD20 alleles. Exceptions only in block 2, because it has 3 alleles, among others K1, MAD20 and RO33. These polymorphisms cause allelic variations and implicate the severity of patients infected P. falciparum. In addition, polymorphism of MSP1 in Jayapura isolates has not been reported so it is interesting to be further identified and projected as a specific antigen. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the allele polymorphism as well as detected the MSP1 epitope antigen candidate on block 2 P. falciparum. Clinical samples of selected malaria patients followed the consecutive sampling method, examining malaria parasites with blood preparations on glass objects observed through a microscope. Plasmodium DNA was isolated from the blood of malarial positive patients. The block 2 MSP1 gene was amplified using PCR method and cloned using the pGEM-T easy vector then transformed to TOP'10 E.coli. Positive colonies selection was performed with blue-white screening. The existence of target DNA was confirmed by PCR colonies and DNA sequencing methods. Furthermore, DNA sequence analysis was done through alignment and formation of a phylogenetic tree using MEGA 6 software and insilico analysis using IEDB software to predict epitope candidate for P. falciparum. A total of 15 patient samples have been isolated from Plasmodium DNA. PCR amplification results show the target gene size about ± 1049 bp. The results of MSP1 nucleotide alignment analysis reveal that block 2 MSP1 genes derived from the sample of malarial patients were distributed in four different allele family groups, K1 (7), MAD20 (1), RO33 (0) and MSP1_Jayapura (10) alleles. The most commonly appears of the detected allele is MSP1_Jayapura single allele. There was no significant association between sex variables, age, the density of parasitemia and alel variation (Mann Whitney, U > 0.05), while symptomatic signs have a significant difference as a trigger of detectable allele variation (U < 0.05). In this research, insilico study shows that there is a new epitope antigen candidate from the MSP1_Jayapura allele and it is predicted to be recognized by B cells with 17 amino acid lengths in the amino acid sequence 187 to 203.Keywords: epitope candidate, insilico analysis, MSP1 P. falciparum, polymorphism
Procedia PDF Downloads 18025 Advertising Campaigns for a Sustainable Future: The Fight against Plastic Pollution in the Ocean
Authors: Mokhlisur Rahman
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Ocean inhibits one of the most complex ecosystems on the planet that regulates the earth's climate and weather by providing us with compatible weather to live. Ocean provides food by extending various ways of lifestyles that are dependent on it, transportation by accommodating the world's biggest carriers, recreation by offering its beauty in many moods, and home to countless species. At the essence of receiving various forms of entertainment, consumers choose to be close to the ocean while performing many fun activities. Which, at some point, upsets the stomach of the ocean by threatening marine life and the environment. Consumers throw the waste into the ocean after using it. Most of them are plastics that float over the ocean and turn into thousands of micro pieces that are hard to observe with the naked eye but easily eaten by the sea species. Eventually, that conflicts with the natural consumption process of any living species, making them sick. This information is not known by most consumers who go to the sea or seashores occasionally to spend time, nor is it widely discussed, which creates an information gap among consumers. However, advertising is a powerful tool to educate people about ocean pollution. This abstract analyzes three major ocean-saving advertisement campaigns that use innovative and advanced technology to get maximum exposure. The study collects data from the selected campaigns' websites and retrieves all available content related to messages, videos, and images. First, the SeaLegacy campaign uses stunning images to create awareness among the people; they use social media content, videos, and other educational content. They create content and strategies to build an emotional connection among the consumers that encourage them to move on an action. All the messages in their campaign empower consumers by using powerful words. Second, Ocean Conservancy Campaign uses social media marketing, events, and educational content to protect the ocean from various pollutants, including plastics, climate change, and overfishing. They use powerful images and videos of marine life. Their mission is to create evidence-based solutions toward a healthy ocean. Their message includes the message regarding the local communities along with the sea species. Third, ocean clean-up is a campaign that applies strategies using innovative technologies to remove plastic waste from the ocean. They use social media, digital, and email marketing to reach people and raise awareness. They also use images and videos to evoke an emotional response to take action. These tree advertisements use realistic images, powerful words, and the presence of living species in the imagery presentation, which are eye-catching and can grow emotional connection among the consumers. Identifying the effectiveness of the messages these advertisements carry and their strategies highlights the knowledge gap of mass people between real pollution and its consequences, making the message more accessible to the mass of people. This study aims to provide insights into the effectiveness of ocean-saving advertisement campaigns and their impact on the public's awareness of ocean conservation. The findings from this study help shape future campaigns.Keywords: advertising-campaign, content-creation, images ocean-saving technology, videos
Procedia PDF Downloads 8124 Increasing Prevalence of Multi-Allergen Sensitivities in Patients with Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma in Eastern India
Authors: Sujoy Khan
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There is a rising concern with increasing allergies affecting both adults and children in rural and urban India. Recent report on adults in a densely populated North Indian city showed sensitization rates for house dust mite, parthenium, and cockroach at 60%, 40% and 18.75% that is now comparable to allergy prevalence in cities in the United States. Data from patients residing in the eastern part of India is scarce. A retrospective study (over 2 years) was done on patients with allergic rhinitis and asthma where allergen-specific IgE levels were measured to see the aero-allergen sensitization pattern in a large metropolitan city of East India. Total IgE and allergen-specific IgE levels were measured using ImmunoCAP (Phadia 100, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Sweden) using region-specific aeroallergens: Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (d1); Dermatophagoides farinae (d2); cockroach (i206); grass pollen mix (gx2) consisted of Cynodon dactylon, Lolium perenne, Phleum pratense, Poa pratensis, Sorghum halepense, Paspalum notatum; tree pollen mix (tx3) consisted of Juniperus sabinoides, Quercus alba, Ulmus americana, Populus deltoides, Prosopis juliflora; food mix 1 (fx1) consisted of Peanut, Hazel nut, Brazil nut, Almond, Coconut; mould mix (mx1) consisted of Penicillium chrysogenum, Cladosporium herbarum, Aspergillus fumigatus, Alternaria alternate; animal dander mix (ex1) consisted of cat, dog, cow and horse dander; and weed mix (wx1) consists of Ambrosia elatior, Artemisia vulgaris, Plantago lanceolata, Chenopodium album, Salsola kali, following manufacturer’s instructions. As the IgE levels were not uniformly distributed, median values were used to represent the data. 92 patients with allergic rhinitis and asthma (united airways disease) were studied over 2 years including 21 children (age < 12 years) who had total IgE and allergen-specific IgE levels measured. The median IgE level was higher in 2016 than in 2015 with 60% of patients (adults and children) being sensitized to house dust mite (dual positivity for Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus and farinae). Of 11 children in 2015, whose total IgE ranged from 16.5 to >5000 kU/L, 36% of children were polysensitized (≥4 allergens), and 55% were sensitized to dust mites. Of 10 children in 2016, total IgE levels ranged from 37.5 to 2628 kU/L, and 20% were polysensitized with 60% sensitized to dust mites. Mould sensitivity was 10% in both of the years in the children studied. A consistent finding was that ragweed sensitization (molecular homology to Parthenium hysterophorus) appeared to be increasing across all age groups, and throughout the year, as reported previously by us where 25% of patients were sensitized. In the study sample overall, sensitizations to dust mite, cockroach, and parthenium were important risks in our patients with moderate to severe asthma that reinforces the importance of controlling indoor exposure to these allergens. Sensitizations to dust mite, cockroach and parthenium allergens are important predictors of asthma morbidity not only among children but also among adults in Eastern India.Keywords: aAeroallergens, asthma, dust mite, parthenium, rhinitis
Procedia PDF Downloads 20023 Survey for Mango Seed Weevils and Pulp Weevil Sternochetus Species (Coleoptera:Curculionidae) on Mango, Mangifera indica in Shan State-South, Myanmar
Authors: Khin Nyunt Yee, Mu Mu Thein
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Detection survey of mango seed and Pulp weevils was undertaken at major mango production areas, Yat Sauk, Taunggyi, Nyaung Shwe and Hopong Townships, in Shan State (South) of Myanmar on two mango cultivars of Sein Ta Lone and Yinkwe from May to August 2016 to coincide with fruiting season to conduct a survey of mango seed and pulp weevils population. The total numbers of 6300 fruits of both mango cultivars were sampled. Among them, 2900 fruits from 5674 fruit bearing plants were collected for Sein Ta Lone cultivar of five well managed, one unmanaged orchards and Urban in Yatsauk Twonship, 400 fruits from only one well managed orchard in Taunggyi Township, 400 fruits from two managed orchards in Nyaung Shwe Township and 400 fruits from one managed orchard in Hopong Township from May to June. 2200 fruits were collected from 4043 fruit bearing plants for Yinkwe Cultivar of four well managed orchards, one unmanaged orchards and one wild tree only in Yat Sauk Township from July to August, 2016. Fruit sample size was 200 fruits /orchard, / wild or /volunteer trees as minimum number. The pulps of all randomly sampling fruits were longitudinal cut open into three slices on each side of fruit and seed were cut longitudinally to inspect the presence of mango weevils. The collected weevils were identified up to species level at Plant Quarantine Laboratory, Plant Protection Division, Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation, Yangon, Myanmar. Mango Pulp and Seed weevils were found on Sein Ta Lone Mango Cultivar in three out of four surveyed Townships except Hopong with the level of infestation ranged from 0.0% to 3.5% of fruits per Township with 0.0% to 39.0% of fruits per orchard. The highest infestation rate per township was 3.5% of fruits (n=400 fruits) in Nyaung Shwe, then, at Yat Suak, the rate was 2.47% (n=2900 fruits). A well-managed orchard at Taung Gyi had 0.75% (n=400 fruits) whereas Hopong was free 0.0% (n=400). The weevils were also recorded on Yinkwe Mango Cultivar in Yatsauk Township where the infestation level was 12.63% of fruits (n=2200) with 0.0% to 67.0% of fruits per orchard. This high level of infestation was obtained by including an absolutely non Integrated Pest Management (non IPM) orchards in both survey with the infestation rates 63.0% of fruits (n=200) and 67.0% of fruits (n=200) respectively on Yinkwe cultivar. Two different species; mango pulp weevil, Sternochetus frigitus, and mango seed weevil Sternochetus olivieri (Faust) of family Curculionidae under the order Coleoptera were recorded. Sternochetus mangiferae was not found during these surveys. Three different developmental stages of mango seed and pulp weevils: larva, pupa and adult were first detected since the first survey in 3rd week of May and mostly were recorded as adult stages in the following surveys in June, July and August The number of Mango pulp weevil was statistically higher than that of mango seed weevils at P < 0.001%. More precise surveys should be carried out national wide to detect the mango weevils.Keywords: mango pulp weevil, Sternochetus frigitus, mango seed weevil Sternochetus olivieri, faust, Sternochetus mangiferae, fabricius, Sein Ta Lone, Yinkwe mango cultivars, Shan State (South) Myanmar
Procedia PDF Downloads 30722 An Integrated Lightweight Naïve Bayes Based Webpage Classification Service for Smartphone Browsers
Authors: Mayank Gupta, Siba Prasad Samal, Vasu Kakkirala
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The internet world and its priorities have changed considerably in the last decade. Browsing on smart phones has increased manifold and is set to explode much more. Users spent considerable time browsing different websites, that gives a great deal of insight into user’s preferences. Instead of plain information classifying different aspects of browsing like Bookmarks, History, and Download Manager into useful categories would improve and enhance the user’s experience. Most of the classification solutions are server side that involves maintaining server and other heavy resources. It has security constraints and maybe misses on contextual data during classification. On device, classification solves many such problems, but the challenge is to achieve accuracy on classification with resource constraints. This on device classification can be much more useful in personalization, reducing dependency on cloud connectivity and better privacy/security. This approach provides more relevant results as compared to current standalone solutions because it uses content rendered by browser which is customized by the content provider based on user’s profile. This paper proposes a Naive Bayes based lightweight classification engine targeted for a resource constraint devices. Our solution integrates with Web Browser that in turn triggers classification algorithm. Whenever a user browses a webpage, this solution extracts DOM Tree data from the browser’s rendering engine. This DOM data is a dynamic, contextual and secure data that can’t be replicated. This proposal extracts different features of the webpage that runs on an algorithm to classify into multiple categories. Naive Bayes based engine is chosen in this solution for its inherent advantages in using limited resources compared to other classification algorithms like Support Vector Machine, Neural Networks, etc. Naive Bayes classification requires small memory footprint and less computation suitable for smartphone environment. This solution has a feature to partition the model into multiple chunks that in turn will facilitate less usage of memory instead of loading a complete model. Classification of the webpages done through integrated engine is faster, more relevant and energy efficient than other standalone on device solution. This classification engine has been tested on Samsung Z3 Tizen hardware. The Engine is integrated into Tizen Browser that uses Chromium Rendering Engine. For this solution, extensive dataset is sourced from dmoztools.net and cleaned. This cleaned dataset has 227.5K webpages which are divided into 8 generic categories ('education', 'games', 'health', 'entertainment', 'news', 'shopping', 'sports', 'travel'). Our browser integrated solution has resulted in 15% less memory usage (due to partition method) and 24% less power consumption in comparison with standalone solution. This solution considered 70% of the dataset for training the data model and the rest 30% dataset for testing. An average accuracy of ~96.3% is achieved across the above mentioned 8 categories. This engine can be further extended for suggesting Dynamic tags and using the classification for differential uses cases to enhance browsing experience.Keywords: chromium, lightweight engine, mobile computing, Naive Bayes, Tizen, web browser, webpage classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 16421 Machine Learning Framework: Competitive Intelligence and Key Drivers Identification of Market Share Trends among Healthcare Facilities
Authors: Anudeep Appe, Bhanu Poluparthi, Lakshmi Kasivajjula, Udai Mv, Sobha Bagadi, Punya Modi, Aditya Singh, Hemanth Gunupudi, Spenser Troiano, Jeff Paul, Justin Stovall, Justin Yamamoto
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The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data is considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP, to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since its data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for ex. quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.Keywords: competition, DAGs, facility, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP
Procedia PDF Downloads 9120 Comprehensive Machine Learning-Based Glucose Sensing from Near-Infrared Spectra
Authors: Bitewulign Mekonnen
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Context: This scientific paper focuses on the use of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy to determine glucose concentration in aqueous solutions accurately and rapidly. The study compares six different machine learning methods for predicting glucose concentration and also explores the development of a deep learning model for classifying NIR spectra. The objective is to optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction. This research is important because it provides a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating aqueous glucose concentrations. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to compare and evaluate different machine-learning methods for predicting glucose concentration from NIR spectra. Additionally, the study aims to develop and assess a deep-learning model for classifying NIR spectra. Methodology: The research methodology involves the use of machine learning and deep learning techniques. Six machine learning regression models, including support vector machine regression, partial least squares regression, extra tree regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting, and principal component analysis-neural network, are employed to predict glucose concentration. The NIR spectra data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the process is repeated ten times to increase generalization ability. In addition, a convolutional neural network is developed for classifying NIR spectra. Findings: The study reveals that the SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit excellent performance in predicting glucose concentration, with correlation coefficients (R) > 0.99 and determination coefficients (R²)> 0.985. The deep learning model achieves high macro-averaging scores for precision, recall, and F1-measure. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning and deep learning methods in optimizing the detection model and improving glucose prediction accuracy. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to the field by providing a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating glucose concentrations from NIR spectra. It also explores the use of deep learning for the classification of indistinguishable NIR spectra. The findings highlight the potential of machine learning and deep learning in enhancing the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The NIR spectra and corresponding references for glucose concentration are measured in increments of 20 mg/dl. The data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the models are evaluated using regression analysis and classification metrics. The performance of each model is assessed based on correlation coefficients, determination coefficients, precision, recall, and F1-measure. Question Addressed: The study addresses the question of whether machine learning and deep learning methods can optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction from NIR spectra. Conclusion: The research demonstrates that machine learning and deep learning methods can effectively predict glucose concentration from NIR spectra. The SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit superior performance, while the deep learning model achieves high classification scores. These findings suggest that machine learning and deep learning techniques can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Further research is needed to explore their clinical utility in analyzing complex matrices, such as blood glucose levels.Keywords: machine learning, signal processing, near-infrared spectroscopy, support vector machine, neural network
Procedia PDF Downloads 9519 Bio-Hub Ecosystems: Investment Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Techno-Economic Analysis
Authors: Kimberly Samaha
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In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, new methodologies to analyze investment risk are needed. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. This study modeled the economics and risk strategies of cradle-to-cradle linkages to incorporate the value-chain effects on capital/operational expenditures and investment risk reductions using a proprietary techno-economic model that incorporates investment risk scenarios utilizing the Monte Carlo methodology. The study calculated the sequential increases in profitability for each additional co-host on an operating forestry-based biomass energy plant in West Enfield, Maine. Phase I starts with the base-line of forestry biomass to electricity only and was built up in stages to include co-hosts of a greenhouse and a land-based shrimp farm. Phase I incorporates CO2 and heat waste streams from the operating power plant in an analysis of lowering and stabilizing the operating costs of the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Phase II analysis incorporated a jet-fuel biorefinery and its secondary slip-stream of biochar which would be developed into two additional bio-products: 1) A soil amendment compost for agriculture and 2) A biochar effluent filter for the aquaculture. The second part of the study applied the Monte Carlo risk methodology to illustrate how co-location derisks investment in an integrated Bio-Hub versus individual investments in stand-alone projects of energy, agriculture or aquaculture. The analyzed scenarios compared reductions in both Capital and Operating Expenditures, which stabilizes profits and reduces the investment risk associated with projects in energy, agriculture, and aquaculture. The major findings of this techno-economic modeling using the Monte Carlo technique resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. In 2018, the site was designated as an economic opportunity zone as part of a Federal Program, which allows for Capital Gains tax benefits for investments on the site. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. The Bio-hub Ecosystems techno-economic analysis model is a critical model to expedite new standards for investments in circular zero-waste projects. Profitable projects will expedite adoption and advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable Bio-Economy paradigm that supports local and rural communities.Keywords: bio-economy, investment risk, circular design, economic modelling
Procedia PDF Downloads 101