Search results for: Grey prediction model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18015

Search results for: Grey prediction model

16785 Feature Extraction Technique for Prediction the Antigenic Variants of the Influenza Virus

Authors: Majid Forghani, Michael Khachay

Abstract:

In genetics, the impact of neighboring amino acids on a target site is referred as the nearest-neighbor effect or simply neighbor effect. In this paper, a new method called wavelet particle decomposition representing the one-dimensional neighbor effect using wavelet packet decomposition is proposed. The main idea lies in known dependence of wavelet packet sub-bands on location and order of neighboring samples. The method decomposes the value of a signal sample into small values called particles that represent a part of the neighbor effect information. The results have shown that the information obtained from the particle decomposition can be used to create better model variables or features. As an example, the approach has been applied to improve the correlation of test and reference sequence distance with titer in the hemagglutination inhibition assay.

Keywords: antigenic variants, neighbor effect, wavelet packet, wavelet particle decomposition

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
16784 Translating Empathy in a Senior Community

Authors: Denver E. Severt, Cynthia Mejia

Abstract:

With a grey wave sweeping across the world and people living longer than ever, more individuals will reside in retirement communities in unprecedented numbers. Enhancing the resident stay within these communities is imperative to reduce past stigmas associated with senior communities. This exploratory quantitative investigation examined interview contents of employees and residents to see if empathy was observed. The results showed the employees across all ranges had a much better grasp of affective empathy, yet with greater experience and age, it was clear that cognitive empathy had to be used with affective empathy in order to gain better trust across the community of residents. Outcomes from the study suggest that future training programs for employees are operationalized to include both affective and cognitive empathy practices. This study is unique in that two scales of empathy were transformed into qualitative questions, and in-depth employee and resident interviews were conducted. The study answers many calls of research to provide more specific studies in senior living communities.

Keywords: senior living community, transformational service research, qualitative research

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
16783 Numerical Solutions of Fractional Order Epidemic Model

Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

Abstract:

The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

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16782 Quantum Kernel Based Regressor for Prediction of Non-Markovianity of Open Quantum Systems

Authors: Diego Tancara, Raul Coto, Ariel Norambuena, Hoseein T. Dinani, Felipe Fanchini

Abstract:

Quantum machine learning is a growing research field that aims to perform machine learning tasks assisted by a quantum computer. Kernel-based quantum machine learning models are paradigmatic examples where the kernel involves quantum states, and the Gram matrix is calculated from the overlapping between these states. With the kernel at hand, a regular machine learning model is used for the learning process. In this paper we investigate the quantum support vector machine and quantum kernel ridge models to predict the degree of non-Markovianity of a quantum system. We perform digital quantum simulation of amplitude damping and phase damping channels to create our quantum dataset. We elaborate on different kernel functions to map the data and kernel circuits to compute the overlapping between quantum states. We observe a good performance of the models.

Keywords: quantum, machine learning, kernel, non-markovianity

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
16781 The Psychosis Prodrome: Biomarkers of the Glutamatergic System and Their Potential Role in Prediction and Treatment

Authors: Peter David Reiss

Abstract:

The concept of the psychosis prodrome has allowed for the identification of adolescent and young adult patients who have a significantly elevated risk of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders. A number of different interventions have been tested in order to prevent or delay progression of symptoms. To date, there has been no consistent meta-analytical evidence to support efficacy of antipsychotic treatment for patients in the prodromal state, and their use remains therefore inconclusive. Although antipsychotics may manage symptoms transiently, they have not been found to prevent or delay onset of psychotic disorders. Furthermore, pharmacological intervention in high-risk individuals remains controversial, because of the antipsychotic side effect profile in a population in which only about 20 to 35 percent will eventually convert to psychosis over a two-year period, with even after two years conversion rates not exceeding 30 to 40 percent. This general estimate is additionally problematic, in that it ignores the fact that there is significant variation in individual risk among clinical high-risk cases. The current lack of reliable tests for at-risk patients makes it difficult to justify individual treatment decisions. Preventive treatment should ideally be dictated by an individual’s risk while minimizing potentially harmful medication exposure. This requires more accurate predictive assessments by using valid and accessible prognostic markers. The following will compare prediction and risk modification potential of behavioral biomarkers such as disturbances of basic sense of self and emotion awareness, neurocognitive biomarkers such as attention, working and declarative memory, and neurophysiological biomarkers such as glutamatergic abnormalities and NMDA receptor dysfunction. Identification of robust biomarkers could therefore not only provide more reliable means of psychosis prediction, but also help test and develop new clinical interventions targeted at the prodromal state.

Keywords: at-risk mental state, biomarkers, glutamatergic system, NMDA receptor, psychosis prodrome, schizophrenia

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
16780 Hybrid Algorithm for Frequency Channel Selection in Wi-Fi Networks

Authors: Cesar Hernández, Diego Giral, Ingrid Páez

Abstract:

This article proposes a hybrid algorithm for spectrum allocation in cognitive radio networks based on the algorithms Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to improve the performance of the spectrum mobility of secondary users in cognitive radio networks. To calculate the level of performance of the proposed algorithm a comparative analysis between the proposed AHP-TOPSIS, Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and Multiplicative Exponent Weighting (MEW) algorithm is performed. Four evaluation metrics is used. These metrics are the accumulative average of failed handoffs, the accumulative average of handoffs performed, the accumulative average of transmission bandwidth, and the accumulative average of the transmission delay. The results of the comparison show that AHP-TOPSIS Algorithm provides 2.4 times better performance compared to a GRA Algorithm and, 1.5 times better than the MEW Algorithm.

Keywords: cognitive radio, decision making, hybrid algorithm, spectrum handoff, wireless networks

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16779 Prediction of Positive Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Striking Zones for Charged Thundercloud Based on Line Charge Model

Authors: Surajit Das Barman, Rakibuzzaman Shah, Apurv Kumar

Abstract:

Bushfire is known as one of the ascendant factors to create pyrocumulus thundercloud that causes the ignition of new fires by pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) lightning strikes and creates major losses of lives and property worldwide. A conceptual model-based risk planning would be beneficial to predict the lightning striking zones on the surface of the earth underneath the pyroCb thundercloud. PyroCb thundercloud can generate both positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) and negative cloud-to-ground (-CG) lightning in which +CG tends to ignite more bushfires and cause massive damage to nature and infrastructure. In this paper, a simple line charge structured thundercloud model is constructed in 2-D coordinates using the method of image charge to predict the probable +CG lightning striking zones on the earth’s surface for two conceptual thundercloud charge configurations: titled dipole and conventional tripole structure with excessive lower positive charge regions that lead to producing +CG lightning. The electric potential and surface charge density along the earth’s surface for both structures via continuously adjusting the position and the charge density of their charge regions is investigated. Simulation results for tilted dipole structure confirm the down-shear extension of the upper positive charge region in the direction of the cloud’s forward flank by 4 to 8 km, resulting in negative surface density, and would expect +CG lightning to strike within 7.8 km to 20 km around the earth periphery in the direction of the cloud’s forward flank. On the other hand, the conceptual tripole charge structure with enhanced lower positive charge region develops negative surface charge density on the earth’s surface in the range |x| < 6.5 km beneath the thundercloud and highly favors producing +CG lightning strikes.

Keywords: pyrocumulonimbus, cloud-to-ground lightning, charge structure, surface charge density, forward flank

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16778 Strategies in Customer Relationship Management and Customers’ Behavior in Making Decision on Buying Car Insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok

Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased, Paweena Sribunrueng

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to investigate strategies in customer relationship management and customers’ behavior in making decision on buying car insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok. Subjects in this study included 400 customers with the age over 20 years old to complete questionnaires. The data were analyzed by arithmetic mean and multiple regressions. The results revealed that the customers’ opinions on the strategies in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, customer feedback, customer follow-up, useful service suggestions, customer communication, and service channels were in moderate level but on the customer retention was in high level. Moreover, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, and customer feedback had an influence on customers’ buying decision on buying car insurance. The two factors above can be used for the prediction at the rate of 34%. In addition, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer retention, customer feedback, and useful service suggestions had an influence on the customers’ buying decision on period of being customers. The three factors could be used for the prediction at the rate of 45%.

Keywords: strategies, customer relationship management, behavior in buying decision, car insurance

Procedia PDF Downloads 406
16777 Analysis and Forecasting of Bitcoin Price Using Exogenous Data

Authors: J-C. Leneveu, A. Chereau, L. Mansart, T. Mesbah, M. Wyka

Abstract:

Extracting and interpreting information from Big Data represent a stake for years to come in several sectors such as finance. Currently, numerous methods are used (such as Technical Analysis) to try to understand and to anticipate market behavior, with mixed results because it still seems impossible to exactly predict a financial trend. The increase of available data on Internet and their diversity represent a great opportunity for the financial world. Indeed, it is possible, along with these standard financial data, to focus on exogenous data to take into account more macroeconomic factors. Coupling the interpretation of these data with standard methods could allow obtaining more precise trend predictions. In this paper, in order to observe the influence of exogenous data price independent of other usual effects occurring in classical markets, behaviors of Bitcoin users are introduced in a model reconstituting Bitcoin value, which is elaborated and tested for prediction purposes.

Keywords: big data, bitcoin, data mining, social network, financial trends, exogenous data, global economy, behavioral finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
16776 A Proposal for a Combustion Model Considering the Lewis Number and Its Evaluation

Authors: Fujio Akagi, Hiroaki Ito, Shin-Ichi Inage

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop a combustion model that can be applied uniformly to laminar and turbulent premixed flames while considering the effect of the Lewis number (Le). The model considers the effect of Le on the transport equations of the reaction progress, which varies with the chemical species and temperature. The distribution of the reaction progress variable is approximated by a hyperbolic tangent function, while the other distribution of the reaction progress variable is estimated using the approximated distribution and transport equation of the reaction progress variable considering the Le. The validity of the model was evaluated under the conditions of propane with Le > 1 and methane with Le = 1 (equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1). The estimated results were found to be in good agreement with those of previous studies under all conditions. A method of introducing a turbulence model into this model is also described. It was confirmed that conventional turbulence models can be expressed as an approximate theory of this model in a unified manner.

Keywords: combustion model, laminar flame, Lewis number, turbulent flame

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16775 A Hierarchical Method for Multi-Class Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines

Authors: P. Byrnes, F. A. DiazDelaO

Abstract:

The Support Vector Machine (SVM) has become widely recognised as one of the leading algorithms in machine learning for both regression and binary classification. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions, referred to as support vectors. Despite its popularity amongst practitioners, SVM has some limitations, with the most significant being the generation of point prediction as opposed to predictive distributions. Stemming from this issue, a probabilistic model namely, Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines (PCVM), has been proposed which respects the original functional form of SVM whilst also providing a predictive distribution. As physical system designs become more complex, an increasing number of classification tasks involving industrial applications consist of more than two classes. Consequently, this research proposes a framework which allows for the extension of PCVM to a multi class setting. Additionally, the original PCVM framework relies on the use of type II maximum likelihood to provide estimates for both the kernel hyperparameters and model evidence. In a high dimensional multi class setting, however, this approach has been shown to be ineffective due to bad scaling as the number of classes increases. Accordingly, we propose the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods to provide a posterior distribution over both parameters and hyperparameters. The proposed framework will be validated against current multi class classifiers through synthetic and real life implementations.

Keywords: probabilistic classification vector machines, multi class classification, MCMC, support vector machines

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16774 The Establishment and Application of TRACE/FRAPTRAN Model for Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant

Authors: S. W. Chen, W. K. Lin, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. Y. Li

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 type NPP and located on the northern coast of Taiwan. First, Kuosheng NPP TRACE model were developed in this research. In order to assess the system response of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model, startup tests data were used to evaluate Kuosheng NPP TRACE model. Second, the over pressurization transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model was performed. Besides, in order to confirm the mechanical property and integrity of fuel rods, FRAPTRAN analysis was also performed in this study.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, FRAPTRA

Procedia PDF Downloads 563
16773 Integrated Vegetable Production Planning Considering Crop Rotation Rules Using a Mathematical Mixed Integer Programming Model

Authors: Mohammadali Abedini Sanigy, Jiangang Fei

Abstract:

In this paper, a mathematical optimization model was developed to maximize the profit in a vegetable production planning problem. It serves as a decision support system that assists farmers in land allocation to crops and harvest scheduling decisions. The developed model can handle different rotation rules in two consecutive cycles of production, which is a common practice in organic production system. Moreover, different production methods of the same crop were considered in the model formulation. The main strength of the model is that it is not restricted to predetermined production periods, which makes the planning more flexible. The model is classified as a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and formulated in PYOMO -a Python package to formulate optimization models- and solved via Gurobi and CPLEX optimizer packages. The model was tested with secondary data from 'Australian vegetable growing farms', and the results were obtained and discussed with the computational test runs. The results show that the model can successfully provide reliable solutions for real size problems.

Keywords: crop rotation, harvesting, mathematical model formulation, vegetable production

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16772 Learning the Dynamics of Articulated Tracked Vehicles

Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, gaussian mixture models, learning motion patterns, tracked robots for urban search and rescue

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16771 Application of Multilinear Regression Analysis for Prediction of Synthetic Shear Wave Velocity Logs in Upper Assam Basin

Authors: Triveni Gogoi, Rima Chatterjee

Abstract:

Shear wave velocity (Vs) estimation is an important approach in the seismic exploration and characterization of a hydrocarbon reservoir. There are varying methods for prediction of S-wave velocity, if recorded S-wave log is not available. But all the available methods for Vs prediction are empirical mathematical models. Shear wave velocity can be estimated using P-wave velocity by applying Castagna’s equation, which is the most common approach. The constants used in Castagna’s equation vary for different lithologies and geological set-ups. In this study, multiple regression analysis has been used for estimation of S-wave velocity. The EMERGE module from Hampson-Russel software has been used here for generation of S-wave log. Both single attribute and multi attributes analysis have been carried out for generation of synthetic S-wave log in Upper Assam basin. Upper Assam basin situated in North Eastern India is one of the most important petroleum provinces of India. The present study was carried out using four wells of the study area. Out of these wells, S-wave velocity was available for three wells. The main objective of the present study is a prediction of shear wave velocities for wells where S-wave velocity information is not available. The three wells having S-wave velocity were first used to test the reliability of the method and the generated S-wave log was compared with actual S-wave log. Single attribute analysis has been carried out for these three wells within the depth range 1700-2100m, which corresponds to Barail group of Oligocene age. The Barail Group is the main target zone in this study, which is the primary producing reservoir of the basin. A system generated list of attributes with varying degrees of correlation appeared and the attribute with the highest correlation was concerned for the single attribute analysis. Crossplot between the attributes shows the variation of points from line of best fit. The final result of the analysis was compared with the available S-wave log, which shows a good visual fit with a correlation of 72%. Next multi-attribute analysis has been carried out for the same data using all the wells within the same analysis window. A high correlation of 85% has been observed between the output log from the analysis and the recorded S-wave. The almost perfect fit between the synthetic S-wave and the recorded S-wave log validates the reliability of the method. For further authentication, the generated S-wave data from the wells have been tied to the seismic and correlated them. Synthetic share wave log has been generated for the well M2 where S-wave is not available and it shows a good correlation with the seismic. Neutron porosity, density, AI and P-wave velocity are proved to be the most significant variables in this statistical method for S-wave generation. Multilinear regression method thus can be considered as a reliable technique for generation of shear wave velocity log in this study.

Keywords: Castagna's equation, multi linear regression, multi attribute analysis, shear wave logs

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16770 Numerical Model Validation Using Durbin Method

Authors: H. Al-Hajeri

Abstract:

The computation of the effectiveness of turbulence enhancement surface features, such as ribs as means of promoting mixing and hence heat transfer, has attracted the continued attention of the engineering community. In this study, the simulation of a three-dimensional cooling passage is carried out employing a number of turbulence models including Durbin model. The cooling passage consists of a square section duct whose upper and lower surfaces feature staggered cuboid ribs. The main objective of this paper is to provide comparisons of the performance of the v2-f model against other established turbulence models as implemented in the commercial CFD code Ansys Fluent. The present study demonstrates that the v2-f model can successfully capture the isothermal air flow phenomena in flow over obstacles.

Keywords: CFD, cooling passage, Durbin model, turbulence model

Procedia PDF Downloads 503
16769 Development of a Model for Predicting Radiological Risks in Interventional Cardiology

Authors: Stefaan Carpentier, Aya Al Masri, Fabrice Leroy, Thibault Julien, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

Abstract:

Introduction: During an 'Interventional Radiology (IR)' procedure, the patient's skin-dose may become very high for a burn, necrosis, and ulceration to appear. In order to prevent these deterministic effects, a prediction of the peak skin-dose for the patient is important in order to improve the post-operative care to be given to the patient. The objective of this study is to estimate, before the intervention, the patient dose for ‘Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO)’ procedures by selecting relevant clinical indicators. Materials and methods: 103 procedures were performed in the ‘Interventional Cardiology (IC)’ department using a Siemens Artis Zee image intensifier that provides the Air Kerma of each IC exam. Peak Skin Dose (PSD) was measured for each procedure using radiochromic films. Patient parameters such as sex, age, weight, and height were recorded. The complexity index J-CTO score, specific to each intervention, was determined by the cardiologist. A correlation method applied to these indicators allowed to specify their influence on the dose. A predictive model of the dose was created using multiple linear regressions. Results: Out of 103 patients involved in the study, 5 were excluded for clinical reasons and 2 for placement of radiochromic films outside the exposure field. 96 2D-dose maps were finally used. The influencing factors having the highest correlation with the PSD are the patient's diameter and the J-CTO score. The predictive model is based on these parameters. The comparison between estimated and measured skin doses shows an average difference of 0.85 ± 0.55 Gy for doses of less than 6 Gy. The mean difference between air-Kerma and PSD is 1.66 Gy ± 1.16 Gy. Conclusion: Using our developed method, a first estimate of the dose to the skin of the patient is available before the start of the procedure, which helps the cardiologist in carrying out its intervention. This estimation is more accurate than that provided by the Air-Kerma.

Keywords: chronic total occlusion procedures, clinical experimentation, interventional radiology, patient's peak skin dose

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
16768 Reliability of Cores Test Result at Elevated Temperature in Case of High Strength Concrete (HSC)

Authors: Waqas Ali

Abstract:

Concrete is broadly used as a structural material in the construction of buildings. When the concrete is exposed to elevated temperature, its strength evaluation is very necessary in the existing structure. In this study, the effect of temperature and the reliability of the core test has been evaluated. For this purpose, the cylindrical cores were extracted from High strength concrete (HSC) specimens that were exposed to the temperature ranging from 300 ℃ to 900 ℃ with a constant duration of 4 hr. This study compares the difference between the standard heated cylinders and the cores taken from them after curing of 90 days. The difference of cylindrical control and binary mix samples and extracted cores revealed that there is 12.19 and 12.38% difference at 300℃, while this difference was found to increase up to 12.89%, 13.03% at 500 ℃. Furthermore, this value is recorded as 12.99%, 13.57% and 14.40%, 14.38% at 700 ℃ and 900 ℃, respectively. A total of four equations were developed through a regression model for the prediction of the strength of concrete for both standard cylinders and extracted cores whose R square values were 0.9733, 0.9627 and 0.9473, 0.9452, respectively.

Keywords: high strength, temperature, core, reliability

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16767 Early Prediction of Diseases in a Cow for Cattle Industry

Authors: Ghufran Ahmed, Muhammad Osama Siddiqui, Shahbaz Siddiqui, Rauf Ahmad Shams Malick, Faisal Khan, Mubashir Khan

Abstract:

In this paper, a machine learning-based approach for early prediction of diseases in cows is proposed. Different ML algos are applied to extract useful patterns from the available dataset. Technology has changed today’s world in every aspect of life. Similarly, advanced technologies have been developed in livestock and dairy farming to monitor dairy cows in various aspects. Dairy cattle monitoring is crucial as it plays a significant role in milk production around the globe. Moreover, it has become necessary for farmers to adopt the latest early prediction technologies as the food demand is increasing with population growth. This highlight the importance of state-ofthe-art technologies in analyzing how important technology is in analyzing dairy cows’ activities. It is not easy to predict the activities of a large number of cows on the farm, so, the system has made it very convenient for the farmers., as it provides all the solutions under one roof. The cattle industry’s productivity is boosted as the early diagnosis of any disease on a cattle farm is detected and hence it is treated early. It is done on behalf of the machine learning output received. The learning models are already set which interpret the data collected in a centralized system. Basically, we will run different algorithms on behalf of the data set received to analyze milk quality, and track cows’ health, location, and safety. This deep learning algorithm draws patterns from the data, which makes it easier for farmers to study any animal’s behavioral changes. With the emergence of machine learning algorithms and the Internet of Things, accurate tracking of animals is possible as the rate of error is minimized. As a result, milk productivity is increased. IoT with ML capability has given a new phase to the cattle farming industry by increasing the yield in the most cost-effective and time-saving manner.

Keywords: IoT, machine learning, health care, dairy cows

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16766 Lie Symmetry of a Nonlinear System Characterizing Endemic Malaria

Authors: Maba Boniface Matadi

Abstract:

This paper analyses the model of Malaria endemic from the point of view of the group theoretic approach. The study identified new independent variables that lead to the transformation of the nonlinear model. Furthermore, corresponding determining equations were constructed, and new symmetries were found. As a result, the findings of the study demonstrate of the integrability of the model to present an invariant solution for the Malaria model.

Keywords: group theory, lie symmetry, invariant solutions, malaria

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16765 Evaluation Model in the Branch of Virtual Education of “Universidad Manuela Beltrán” Bogotá-Colombia

Authors: Javier López

Abstract:

This Paper presents the evaluation model designed for the virtual education branch of The “Universidad Manuela Beltrán, Bogotá-Colombia”. This was the result of a research, developed as a case study, which had three stages: Document review, observation, and a perception survey for teachers. In the present model, the evaluation is a cross-cutting issue to the educational process. Therefore, it consists in a group of actions and guidelines which lead to analyze the student’s learning process from the admission, during the academic training, and to the graduation. This model contributes to the evaluation components which might interest other educational institutions or might offer methodological guidance to consolidate an own model

Keywords: model, evaluation, virtual education, learning process

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16764 A Generalized Framework for Adaptive Machine Learning Deployments in Algorithmic Trading

Authors: Robert Caulk

Abstract:

A generalized framework for adaptive machine learning deployments in algorithmic trading is introduced, tested, and released as open-source code. The presented software aims to test the hypothesis that recent data contains enough information to form a probabilistically favorable short-term price prediction. Further, the framework contains various adaptive machine learning techniques that are geared toward generating profit during strong trends and minimizing losses during trend changes. Results demonstrate that this adaptive machine learning approach is capable of capturing trends and generating profit. The presentation also discusses the importance of defining the parameter space associated with the dynamic training data-set and using the parameter space to identify and remove outliers from prediction data points. Meanwhile, the generalized architecture enables common users to exploit the powerful machinery while focusing on high-level feature engineering and model testing. The presentation also highlights common strengths and weaknesses associated with the presented technique and presents a broad range of well-tested starting points for feature set construction, target setting, and statistical methods for enforcing risk management and maintaining probabilistically favorable entry and exit points. The presentation also describes the end-to-end data processing tools associated with FreqAI, including automatic data fetching, data aggregation, feature engineering, safe and robust data pre-processing, outlier detection, custom machine learning and statistical tools, data post-processing, and adaptive training backtest emulation, and deployment of adaptive training in live environments. Finally, the generalized user interface is also discussed in the presentation. Feature engineering is simplified so that users can seed their feature sets with common indicator libraries (e.g. TA-lib, pandas-ta). The user also feeds data expansion parameters to fill out a large feature set for the model, which can contain as many as 10,000+ features. The presentation describes the various object-oriented programming techniques employed to make FreqAI agnostic to third-party libraries and external data sources. In other words, the back-end is constructed in such a way that users can leverage a broad range of common regression libraries (Catboost, LightGBM, Sklearn, etc) as well as common Neural Network libraries (TensorFlow, PyTorch) without worrying about the logistical complexities associated with data handling and API interactions. The presentation finishes by drawing conclusions about the most important parameters associated with a live deployment of the adaptive learning framework and provides the road map for future development in FreqAI.

Keywords: machine learning, market trend detection, open-source, adaptive learning, parameter space exploration

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16763 Intelligent Platform for Photovoltaic Park Operation and Maintenance

Authors: Andreas Livera, Spyros Theocharides, Michalis Florides, Charalambos Anastassiou

Abstract:

A main challenge in the quest for ensuring quality of operation, especially for photovoltaic (PV) systems, is to safeguard the reliability and optimal performance by detecting and diagnosing potential failures and performance losses at early stages or before the occurrence through real-time monitoring, supervision, fault detection, and predictive maintenance. The purpose of this work is to present the functionalities and results related to the development and validation of a software platform for PV assets diagnosis and maintenance. The platform brings together proprietary hardware sensors and software algorithms to enable the early detection and prediction of the most common and critical faults in PV systems. It was validated using field measurements from operating PV systems. The results showed the effectiveness of the platform for detecting faults and losses (e.g., inverter failures, string disconnections, and potential induced degradation) at early stages, forecasting PV power production while also providing recommendations for maintenance actions. Increased PV energy yield production and revenue can be thus achieved while also minimizing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs.

Keywords: failure detection and prediction, operation and maintenance, performance monitoring, photovoltaic, platform, recommendations, predictive maintenance

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16762 Optimal Design of RC Pier Accompanied with Multi Sliding Friction Damping Mechanism Using Combination of SNOPT and ANN Method

Authors: Angga S. Fajar, Y. Takahashi, J. Kiyono, S. Sawada

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The structural system concept of RC pier accompanied with multi sliding friction damping mechanism was developed based on numerical analysis approach. However in the implementation, to make design for such kind of this structural system consumes a lot of effort in case high of complexity. During making design, the special behaviors of this structural system should be considered including flexible small deformation, sufficient elastic deformation capacity, sufficient lateral force resistance, and sufficient energy dissipation. The confinement distribution of friction devices has significant influence to its. Optimization and prediction with multi function regression of this structural system expected capable of providing easier and simpler design method. The confinement distribution of friction devices is optimized with SNOPT in Opensees, while some design variables of the structure are predicted using multi function regression of ANN. Based on the optimization and prediction this structural system is able to be designed easily and simply.

Keywords: RC Pier, multi sliding friction device, optimal design, flexible small deformation

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16761 Application of Smplify-X Algorithm with Enhanced Gender Classifier in 3D Human Pose Estimation

Authors: Jiahe Liu, Hongyang Yu, Miao Luo, Feng Qian

Abstract:

The widespread application of 3D human body reconstruction spans various fields. Smplify-X, an algorithm reliant on single-image input, employs three distinct body parameter templates, necessitating gender classification of individuals within the input image. Researchers employed a ResNet18 network to train a gender classifier within the Smplify-X framework, setting the threshold at 0.9, designating images falling below this threshold as having neutral gender. This model achieved 62.38% accurate predictions and 7.54% incorrect predictions. Our improvement involved refining the MobileNet network, resulting in a raised threshold of 0.97. Consequently, we attained 78.89% accurate predictions and a mere 0.2% incorrect predictions, markedly enhancing prediction precision and enabling more precise 3D human body reconstruction.

Keywords: SMPLX, mobileNet, gender classification, 3D human reconstruction

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16760 Edge Enhancement Visual Methodology for Fat Amount and Distribution Assessment in Dry-Cured Ham Slices

Authors: Silvia Grassi, Stefano Schiavon, Ernestina Casiraghi, Cristina Alamprese

Abstract:

Dry-cured ham is an uncooked meat product particularly appreciated for its peculiar sensory traits among which lipid component plays a key role in defining quality and, consequently, consumers’ acceptability. Usually, fat content and distribution are chemically determined by expensive, time-consuming, and destructive analyses. Moreover, different sensory techniques are applied to assess product conformity to desired standards. In this context, visual systems are getting a foothold in the meat market envisioning more reliable and time-saving assessment of food quality traits. The present work aims at developing a simple but systematic and objective visual methodology to assess the fat amount of dry-cured ham slices, in terms of total, intermuscular and intramuscular fractions. To the aim, 160 slices from 80 PDO dry-cured hams were evaluated by digital image analysis and Soxhlet extraction. RGB images were captured by a flatbed scanner, converted in grey-scale images, and segmented based on intensity histograms as well as on a multi-stage algorithm aimed at edge enhancement. The latter was performed applying the Canny algorithm, which consists of image noise reduction, calculation of the intensity gradient for each image, spurious response removal, actual thresholding on corrected images, and confirmation of strong edge boundaries. The approach allowed for the automatic calculation of total, intermuscular and intramuscular fat fractions as percentages of the total slice area. Linear regression models were run to estimate the relationships between the image analysis results and the chemical data, thus allowing for the prediction of the total, intermuscular and intramuscular fat content by the dry-cured ham images. The goodness of fit of the obtained models was confirmed in terms of coefficient of determination (R²), hypothesis testing and pattern of residuals. Good regression models have been found being 0.73, 0.82, and 0.73 the R2 values for the total fat, the sum of intermuscular and intramuscular fat and the intermuscular fraction, respectively. In conclusion, the edge enhancement visual procedure brought to a good fat segmentation making the simple visual approach for the quantification of the different fat fractions in dry-cured ham slices sufficiently simple, accurate and precise. The presented image analysis approach steers towards the development of instruments that can overcome destructive, tedious and time-consuming chemical determinations. As future perspectives, the results of the proposed image analysis methodology will be compared with those of sensory tests in order to develop a fast grading method of dry-cured hams based on fat distribution. Therefore, the system will be able not only to predict the actual fat content but it will also reflect the visual appearance of samples as perceived by consumers.

Keywords: dry-cured ham, edge detection algorithm, fat content, image analysis

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16759 Enhancing Signal Reception in a Mobile Radio Network Using Adaptive Beamforming Antenna Arrays Technology

Authors: Ugwu O. C., Mamah R. O., Awudu W. S.

Abstract:

This work is aimed at enhancing signal reception on a mobile radio network and minimizing outage probability in a mobile radio network using adaptive beamforming antenna arrays. In this research work, an empirical real-time drive measurement was done in a cellular network of Globalcom Nigeria Limited located at Ikeja, the headquarters of Lagos State, Nigeria, with reference base station number KJA 004. The empirical measurement includes Received Signal Strength and Bit Error Rate which were recorded for exact prediction of the signal strength of the network as at the time of carrying out this research work. The Received Signal Strength and Bit Error Rate were measured with a spectrum monitoring Van with the help of a Ray Tracer at an interval of 100 meters up to 700 meters from the transmitting base station. The distance and angular location measurements from the reference network were done with the help Global Positioning System (GPS). The other equipment used were transmitting equipment measurements software (Temsoftware), Laptops and log files, which showed received signal strength with distance from the base station. Results obtained were about 11% from the real-time experiment, which showed that mobile radio networks are prone to signal failure and can be minimized using an Adaptive Beamforming Antenna Array in terms of a significant reduction in Bit Error Rate, which implies improved performance of the mobile radio network. In addition, this work did not only include experiments done through empirical measurement but also enhanced mathematical models that were developed and implemented as a reference model for accurate prediction. The proposed signal models were based on the analysis of continuous time and discrete space, and some other assumptions. These developed (proposed) enhanced models were validated using MATLAB (version 7.6.3.35) program and compared with the conventional antenna for accuracy. These outage models were used to manage the blocked call experience in the mobile radio network. 20% improvement was obtained when the adaptive beamforming antenna arrays were implemented on the wireless mobile radio network.

Keywords: beamforming algorithm, adaptive beamforming, simulink, reception

Procedia PDF Downloads 44
16758 A Model of Sustainability in the Accommodation Sector

Authors: L. S. Zavodna, J. Zavodny Pospisil

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to identify the factors for sustainability in the accommodation sector. Although sustainability is a current trend in tourism, not many facilities know how to apply the concept in practice. This paper presents a model for the implementation of sustainability in hotels, hostels, campgrounds, or other facilities. First, there are identified sections of each accommodation facility, which can contribute to sustainability. Furthermore, concrete steps are presented to transfer this model into reality.

Keywords: accommodation sector, model, sustainable tourism, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 307
16757 Moving Beyond the Limits of Disability Inclusion: Using the Concept of Belonging Through Friendship to Improve the Outcome of the Social Model of Disability

Authors: Luke S. Carlos A. Thompson

Abstract:

The medical model of disability, though beneficial for the medical professional, is often exclusionary, restrictive and dehumanizing when applied to the lived experience of disability. As a result, a critique of this model was constructed called the social model of disability. Much of the language used to articulate the purpose behind the social model of disability can be summed up within the word inclusion. However, this essay asserts that inclusiveness is an incomplete aspiration. The social model, as it currently stands, does not aid in creating a society where those with impairments actually belong. Rather, the social model aids in lessening the visibility, or negative consequence of, difference. Therefore, the social model does not invite society to welcome those with physical and intellectual impairments. It simply aids society in ignoring the existence of impairment by removing explicit forms of exclusion. Rather than simple inclusion, then, this essay uses John Swinton’s concept of friendship and Jean Vanier’s understanding of belonging to better articulate the intended outcome of the social model—a society where everyone can belong.

Keywords: belong, community, differently-able, disability, exclusion, friendship, inclusion, normality

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16756 Advanced Numerical and Analytical Methods for Assessing Concrete Sewers and Their Remaining Service Life

Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi

Abstract:

Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.

Keywords: reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 457