Search results for: Andres Cely

Authors: Boris G. German, Edward Jiménez, Sebastián Espinoza, Andrés G. Chico, Ricardo A. Narváez

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The unique flora and fauna of The Galapagos Islands has leveraged a tourism-driven growth in the islands. Nonetheless, such development is energy-intensive and requires thousands of gallons of diesel each year for thermoelectric electricity generation. The needed transport of fossil fuels from the continent has generated oil spillages and affectations to the fragile ecosystem of the islands. The Zero Fossil Fuels initiative for The Galapagos proposed by the Ecuadorian government as an alternative to reduce the use of fossil fuels in the islands, considers the replacement of diesel in thermoelectric generators, by Jatropha curcas vegetable oil. However, the Jatropha oil supply cannot entirely cover yet the demand for electricity generation in Galapagos. Within this context, the present work aims to provide an optimization model that can be used as a selection criterion for approving new Jatropha Curcas collection points in rural areas of Manabi-Ecuador. For this purpose, existing Jatropha collection points in Manabi were grouped under three regions: north (7 collection points), center (4 collection points) and south (9 collection points). Field work was carried out in every region in order to characterize the collection points, to establish local Jatropha supply and to determine transportation costs. Data collection was complemented using GIS software and an objective function was defined in order to determine the profit associated to Jatropha oil production. The market price of both Jatropha oil and residual cake, were considered for the total revenue; whereas Jatropha price, transportation and oil extraction costs were considered for the total cost. The tonnes of Jatropha fruit and seed, transported from collection points to the extraction plant, were considered as variables. The maximum and minimum amount of the collected Jatropha from each region constrained the optimization problem. The supply chain was optimized using linear programming in order to maximize the profits. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to find a profit-based criterion for the acceptance of future collection points in Manabi. The maximum profit reached a value of $ 4,616.93 per year, which represented a total Jatropha collection of 62.3 tonnes Jatropha per year. The northern region of Manabi had the biggest collection share (69%), followed by the southern region (17%). The criteria for accepting new Jatropha collection points in the rural areas of Manabi can be defined by the current maximum profit of the zone and by the variation in the profit when collection points are removed one at a time. The definition of new feasible collection points plays a key role in the supply chain associated to Jatropha oil production. Therefore, a mathematical model that assists decision makers in establishing new collection points while assuring profitability, contributes to guarantee a continued Jatropha oil supply for Galapagos and a sustained economic growth in the rural areas of Ecuador.

Keywords: collection points, Jatropha curcas, linear programming, supply chain

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Authors: Leonardo Parra, Manuel Chacón-Fuentes, Andrés Quiroz

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One of the most important factors in beef and dairy production in the world as well as also in Chile, is related to the correct choice of cultivars or mixtures of forage grasses and legumes to ensure high yields and quality of grassland. However, a great problem is the persistence of the grasses as a result of the action of different hypogeous as epigean pests. The complex insect pests associated with grassland include white grubs (Hylamorpha elegans, Phytoloema herrmanni), blackworm (Dalaca pallens) and Argentine stem weevil (Listronotus bonariensis). In Chile, the principal strategy utilized for controlling this pest is chemical control, through the use of synthetic insecticides, however, underground feeding habits of larval and flight activity of adults makes this uneconomic method. Furthermore, due to problems including environmental degradation, development of resistance and chemical residues, there is a worldwide interest in the use of alternative environmentally friendly pest control methods. In this sense, in recent years there has been an increasing interest in determining the role of endophyte fungi in controlling epigean and hypogeous pest. Endophytes from ryegrass (Lolium perenne), establish a biotrophic relationship with the host, defined as mutualistic symbiosis. The plant-fungi association produces a “cocktail of alkaloids” where peramine is the main toxic substance present in endophyte of ryegrass and responsible for damage reduction of L. bonariensis. In the last decade, few studies have been developed on the effectiveness of new ryegrass cultivars carriers of endophyte in controlling insect pests. Therefore, the aim of this research is to provide knowledge concerning to evaluate the alkaloid content, such as peramine and Lolitrem B, present in new experimental lines of ryegrass and feasible to be used in grasslands of southern Chile. For this, during 2016, ryegrass plants of six experimental lines and two commercial cultivars sown at the Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias Carrillanca (Vilcún, Chile) were collected and subjected to a process of chemical extraction to identify and quantify the presence of peramine and lolitrem B by the technique of liquid chromatography of high resolution (HPLC). The results indicated that the experimental lines EL-1 and EL-3 had high content of peramine (0.25 and 0.43 ppm, respectively) than with lolitrem B (0.061 and 0.19 ppm, respectively). Furthermore, the higher contents of lolitrem B were detected in the EL-4 and commercial cultivar Alto (positive control) with 0.08 and 0.17 ppm, respectively. Peramine and lolitrem B were not detected in the cultivar Jumbo (negative control). These results suggest that EL-3 would have potential as future cultivate because it has high content of peramine, alkaloid responsible for controlling insect pest. However, their current role on the complex insects attacking ryegrass grasslands should be evaluated. The information obtained in this research could be used to improve control strategies against hypogeous and epigean pests of grassland in southern Chile and also to reduce the use of synthetic pesticides.

Keywords: HPLC, Lolitrem B, peramine, pest

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Authors: Andrés Quiroz, Emilio Hormazábal, Ana Mutis, Fernando Ortega, Loreto Méndez, Leonardo Parra

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Red clover root borer, Hylastinus obscurus Marsham (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is the main insect pest associated to red clover, Trifolium pratense L. An average of 1.5 H. obscurus per plant can cause 5.5% reduction in forage yield in pastures of two to three years old. Moreover, insect attack can reach 70% to 100% of the plants. To our knowledge, there is no a chemical strategy for controlling this pest. Therefore alternative strategies for controlling H. obscurus are a high priority for red clover producers. One of this alternative is related to the study of secondary metabolites involved in intrinsic chemical defenses developed by plants, such as isoflavonoids. The isoflavonoids formononetin and daidzein have elicited an antifeedant and phagostimult effect on H. obscurus respectively. However, we do not know how is the dynamic variation of these isoflavonoids under field conditions. The main objective of this work was to evaluate the variation of the antifeedant isoflavonoids formononetin, the phagostimulant isoflavonoids daidzein, and their respective glycosides over time in different ecotypes of red clover. Fourteen red clover ecotypes (8 cultivars and 6 experimental lines), were collected at INIA-Carillanca (La Araucanía, Chile). These plants were established in October 2015 under irrigated conditions. The cultivars were distributed in a randomized complete block with three replicates. The whole plants were sampled in four times: 15th October 2016, 12th December 2016, 27th January 2017 and 16th March 2017 with sufficient amount of soil to avoid root damage. A polar fraction of isoflavonoid was obtained from 20 mg of lyophilized root tissue extracted with 2 mL of 80% MeOH for 16 h using an orbital shaker in the dark at room temperature. After, an aliquot of 1.4 mL of the supernatant was evaporated, and the residue was resuspended in 300 µL of 45% MeOH. The identification and quantification of isoflavonoid root extracts were performed by the injection of 20 µL into a Shimadzu HPLC equipped with a C-18 column. The sample was eluted with a mobile phase composed of AcOH: H₂O (1:9 v/v) as solvent A and CH₃CN as solvent B. The detection was performed at 260 nm. The results showed that the amount of aglycones was higher than the respective glycosides. This result is according to the biosynthetic pathway of flavonoids, where the formation of glycoside is further to the glycosides biosynthesis. The amount of formononetin was higher than daidzein. In roots, where H. obscurus spent the most part of its live cycle, the highest content of formononetin was found in G 27, Pawera, Sabtoron High, Redqueli-INIA and Superqueli-INIA cvs. (2.1, 1.8, 1.8, 1.6 and 1.0 mg g⁻¹ respectively); and the lowest amount of daidzein were found Superqueli-INIA (0.32 mg g⁻¹) and in the experimental line Sel Syn Int4 (0.24 mg g⁻¹). This ecotype showed a high content of formononetin (0.9 mg g⁻¹). This information, associated with cultural practices, could help farmers and breeders to reduce H. obscurus in grassland, selecting ecotypes with high content of formononetin and low amount of daidzein in the roots of red clover plants. Acknowledgements: FONDECYT 1141245 and 11130715.

Keywords: daidzein, formononetin, isoflavonoid glycosides, trifolium pratense

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Authors: Andrés Quiroz, Emilio Hormazabal, Ana Mutis, Fernando Ortega, Manuel Chacón-Fuentes, Leonardo Parra

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Red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) is an important forage species in temperate regions of the world. The main limitation of this species worldwide is a lack of persistence related to the high mortality of plants due to a complex of biotic and abiotic factors, determining a life span of two or three seasons. Because of the importance of red clover in Chile, a red clover breeding program was started at INIA Carillanca Research Center in 1989, with the main objective of improving the survival of plants, forage yield, and persistence. The main selection criteria for selecting new varieties have been based on agronomical parameters and biotic factors. The main biotic factor associated with red clover mortality in Chile is Hylastinus obscurus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Both larval and adults feed on the roots, causing weakening and subsequent death of clover plants. Pesticides have not been successful for controlling infestations of this root borer. Therefore, alternative strategies for controlling this pest are a high priority for red clover producers. Currently, the role of semiochemical in the interaction between H. obscurus and red clover plants has been widely studied for our group. Specifically, from the red clover foliage has been identified limonene is eliciting repellency from the root borer. Limonene is generated in the plant from two independent biosynthetic pathways, the mevalonic acid, and deoxyxylulose pathway. Mevalonate pathway enzymes are localized in the cytosol, whereas the deoxyxylulose phosphate pathway enzymes are found in plastids. In summary, limonene can be determinated by enzymatic bioassay using GPP as substrate and by limonene synthase expression. Therefore, the main objective of this work was to study genetic variation of limonene in material provided by INIA´s Red Clover breeding program. Protein extraction was carried out homogenizing 250 mg of leave tissue and suspended in 6 mL of extraction buffer (PEG 1500, PVP-30, 20 mM MgCl2 and antioxidants) and stirred on ice for 20 min. After centrifugation, aliquots of 2.5 mL were desalted on PD-10 columns, resulting in a final volume of 3.5 mL. Protein determination was performed according to Bradford with BSA as a standard. Monoterpene synthase assays were performed with 50 µL of protein extracts transferred into gas-tight 2 mL crimp seal vials after addition of 4 µL MgCl₂ and 41 µL assay buffer. The assay was started by adding 5 µL of a GPP solution. The mixture was incubated for 30 min at 40 °C. Biosynthesized limonene was quantified in a GC equipped with a chiral column and using synthetic R and S-limonene standards. The enzymatic the production of R and S-limonene from different Superqueli-Carillanca genotypes is shown in this work. Preliminary results showed significant differences in limonene content among the genotypes analyzed. These results constitute an important base for selecting genotypes with a high content of this repellent monoterpene towards H. obscurus.

Keywords: head space, limonene enzymatic determination, red clover, Hylastinus obscurus

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Authors: Komal Rathore, Kiesha Pierre, Kyle Cogswell, Aaron Driscoll, Andres Tejada Martinez, Gita Iranipour, Luke Mulford, Aydin Sunol

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Modeling of Biological Wastewater Treatment Plants requires several parameters for kinetic rate expressions, thermo-physical properties, and hydrodynamic behavior. The kinetics and associated mechanisms become complex due to several biological processes taking place in wastewater treatment plants at varying times and spatial scales. A dynamic process model that incorporated the complex model for activated sludge kinetics was developed using the BioWin software platform for an Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant in Valrico, Florida. Due to the extensive number of tunable parameters, an experimental design was employed for judicious selection of the most influential parameter sets and their bounds. The model was tuned using both the influent and effluent plant data to reconcile and rectify the forecasted results from the BioWin Model. Amount of mixed liquor suspended solids in the oxidation ditch, aeration rates and recycle rates were adjusted accordingly. The experimental analysis and plant SCADA data were used to predict influent wastewater rates and composition profiles as a function of time for extended periods. The lumped dynamic model development process was coupled with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of the key units such as oxidation ditches in the plant. Several CFD models that incorporate the nitrification-denitrification kinetics, as well as, hydrodynamics was developed and being tested using ANSYS Fluent software platform. These realistic and verified models developed using BioWin and ANSYS were used to plan beforehand the operating policies and control strategies for the biological wastewater plant accordingly that further allows regulatory compliance at minimum operational cost. These models, with a little bit of tuning, can be used for other biological wastewater treatment plants as well. The BioWin model mimics the existing performance of the Valrico Plant which allowed the operators and engineers to predict effluent behavior and take control actions to meet the discharge limits of the plant. Also, with the help of this model, we were able to find out the key kinetic and stoichiometric parameters which are significantly more important for modeling of biological wastewater treatment plants. One of the other important findings from this model were the effects of mixed liquor suspended solids and recycle ratios on the effluent concentration of various parameters such as total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, etc. The ANSYS model allowed the abstraction of information such as the formation of dead zones increases through the length of the oxidation ditches as compared to near the aerators. These profiles were also very useful in studying the behavior of mixing patterns, effect of aerator speed, and use of baffles which in turn helps in optimizing the plant performance.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, flow-sheet simulation, kinetic modeling, process dynamics

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Authors: Andres Nieto-Leal, Victor N. Kaliakin, Tania P. Molina

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The nature of most engineering materials is quite complex. It is, therefore, difficult to devise a general mathematical model that will cover all possible ranges and types of excitation and behavior of a given material. As a result, the development of mathematical models is based upon simplifying assumptions regarding material behavior. Such simplifications result in some material idealization; for example, one of the simplest material idealization is to assume that the material behavior obeys the elasticity. However, soils are nonhomogeneous, anisotropic, path-dependent materials that exhibit nonlinear stress-strain relationships, changes in volume under shear, dilatancy, as well as time-, rate- and temperature-dependent behavior. Over the years, many constitutive models, possessing different levels of sophistication, have been developed to simulate the behavior geomaterials, particularly cohesive soils. Early in the development of constitutive models, it became evident that elastic or standard elastoplastic formulations, employing purely isotropic hardening and predicated in the existence of a yield surface surrounding a purely elastic domain, were incapable of realistically simulating the behavior of geomaterials. Accordingly, more sophisticated constitutive models have been developed; for example, the bounding surface elastoplasticity. The essence of the bounding surface concept is the hypothesis that plastic deformations can occur for stress states either within or on the bounding surface. Thus, unlike classical yield surface elastoplasticity, the plastic states are not restricted only to those lying on a surface. Elastoplastic bounding surface models have been improved; however, there is still need to improve their capabilities in simulating the response of anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils, especially the response in extension tests. Thus, in this work an improved constitutive model that can more accurately predict diverse stress-strain phenomena exhibited by cohesive soils was developed. Particularly, an improved rotational hardening rule that better simulate the response of cohesive soils in extension. The generalized definition of the bounding surface model provides a convenient and elegant framework for unifying various previous versions of the model for anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils. The Generalized Bounding Surface Model for cohesive soils is a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent model that accounts for both inherent and stress induced anisotropy employing a non-associative flow rule. The model numerical implementation in a computer code followed an adaptive multistep integration scheme in conjunction with local iteration and radial return. The one-step trapezoidal rule was used to get the stiffness matrix that defines the relationship between the stress increment and the strain increment. After testing the model in simulating the response of cohesive soils through extensive comparisons of model simulations to experimental data, it has been shown to give quite good simulations. The new model successfully simulates the response of different cohesive soils; for example, Cardiff Kaolin, Spestone Kaolin, and Lower Cromer Till. The simulated undrained stress paths, stress-strain response, and excess pore pressures are in very good agreement with the experimental values, especially in extension.

Keywords: bounding surface elastoplasticity, cohesive soils, constitutive model, modeling of geomaterials

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Authors: Andrés Durán, Brian Castellanos, Marta Quicazán, Carlos Zuluaga-Domínguez

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Bee-pollen is an apicultural-derived food product, with a growing appreciation among consumers given the remarkable nutritional and functional composition, in particular, protein (24%), dietary fiber (15%), phenols (15 – 20 GAE/g) and carotenoids (600 – 900 µg/g). These properties are given by the geographical and climatic characteristics of the region where it is collected. There are several countries recognized by their pollen production, e.g. China, United States, Japan, Spain, among others. Beekeepers use traps in the entrance of the hive where bee-pollen is collected. After the removal of foreign particles and drying, this product is ready to be marketed. However, in countries located along the equator, the absence of seasons and a constant tropical climate throughout the year favors a more rapid spoilage condition for foods with elevated water activity. The climatic conditions also trigger the proliferation of microorganisms and insects. This, added to the factor that beekeepers usually do not have adequate processing systems for bee-pollen, leads to deficiencies in the quality and safety of the product. In contrast, the Andean region of South America, lying on equator, typically has a high production of bee-pollen of up to 36 kg/year/hive, being four times higher than in countries with marked seasons. This region is also located in altitudes superior to 2500 meters above sea level, having extremes sun ultraviolet radiation all year long. As a mechanism of defense of radiation, plants produce more secondary metabolites acting as antioxidant agents, hence, plant products such as bee-pollen contain remarkable more phenolics and carotenoids than collected in other places. Considering this, the improvement of bee-pollen processing facilities by technical modifications and the implementation of an integrated cleaning and drying system for the product in an apiary in the area was proposed. The beehives were modified through the installation of alternative bee-pollen traps to avoid sources of contamination. The processing facility was modified according to considerations of Good Manufacturing Practices, implementing the combined use of a cabin dryer with temperature control and forced airflow and a greenhouse-type solar drying system. Additionally, for the separation of impurities, a cyclone type system was implemented, complementary to a screening equipment. With these modifications, a decrease in the content of impurities and the microbiological load of bee-pollen was seen from the first stages, principally with a reduction of the presence of molds and yeasts and in the number of foreign animal origin impurities. The use of the greenhouse solar dryer integrated to the cabin dryer allowed the processing of larger quantities of product with shorter waiting times in storage, reaching a moisture content of about 6% and a water activity lower than 0.6, being appropriate for the conservation of bee-pollen. Additionally, the contents of functional or nutritional compounds were not affected, even observing an increase of up to 25% in phenols content and a non-significant decrease in carotenoids content and antioxidant activity.

Keywords: beekeeping, drying, food processing, food safety

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Authors: Ricardo Godoy, Herbert Venthur, Hector Jimenez, Andres Quiroz, Ana Mutis

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In agriculture, grape production has great economic importance at global level, considering that in 2013 it reached 7.4 million hectares (ha) covered by plantations of this fruit worldwide. Chile is the number one exporter in the world with 800,000 tons. However, these values have been threatened by the attack of the grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermuller) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), since its detection in 2008. Nowadays, the use of semiochemicals, in particular the major component of the sex pheromone, (E,Z)-7.9-dodecadienil acetate, are part of mating disruption methods to control L. botrana. How insect pests can recognize these molecules, is being part of huge efforts to deorphanize their olfactory mechanism at molecular level. Thus, an interesting group of proteins has been identified in the antennae of insects, where odorant-binding proteins (OBPs) are known by transporting molecules to odorant receptors (ORs) and a co-receptor (ORCO) causing a behavioral change in the insect. Other proteins such as chemosensory proteins (CSPs), ionotropic receptors (IRs), odorant degrading enzymes (ODEs) and sensory neuron membrane proteins (SNMPs) seem to be involved, but few studies have been performed so far. The above has led to an increasing interest in insect communication at a molecular level, which has contributed to both a better understanding of the olfaction process and the design of new pest management strategies. To date, it has been reported that the ORs can detect one or a small group of odorants in a specific way. Therefore, the objective of this study is the identification of genes that encode these ORs using the antennal transcriptome of L. botrana. Total RNA was extracted for females and males of L. botrana, and the antennal transcriptome sequenced by Next Generation Sequencing service using an Illumina HiSeq2500 platform with 50 million reads per sample. Unigenes were assembled using Trinity v2.4.0 package and transcript abundance was obtained using edgeR. Genes were identified using BLASTN and BLASTX locally installed in a Unix system and based on our own Tortricidae database. Those Unigenes related to ORs were characterized using ORFfinder and protein Blastp server. Finally, a phylogenetic analysis was performed with the candidate amino acid sequences for LbotORs including amino acid sequences of other moths ORs, such as Bombyx mori, Cydia pomonella, among others. Our findings suggest 61 genes encoding ORs and one gene encoding an ORCO in both sexes, where the greatest difference was found in the OR6 because of the transcript abundance according to the value of FPKM in females and males was 1.48 versus 324.00. In addition, according to phylogenetic analysis OR6 is closely related to OR1 in Cydia pomonella and OR6, OR7 in Epiphyas postvittana, which have been described as pheromonal receptors (PRs). These results represent the first evidence of ORs present in the antennae of L. botrana and a suitable starting point for further functional studies with selected ORs, such as OR6, which is potentially related to pheromonal recognition.

Keywords: antennal transcriptome, lobesia botrana, odorant receptors (ORs), phylogenetic analysis

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Authors: Andrés Lara Guillén, José M. Soriano Disla, Gemma Castejón Martínez, David Fernández-Gutiérrez

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The worldwide population is exponentially increasing, which causes a rising demand for food, energy and non-renewable resources. These demands must be attended to from a circular economy point of view. Under this approach, the obtention of strategic products from biowaste is crucial for the society to keep the current lifestyle reducing the environmental and social issues linked to the lineal economy. This is the main objective of the VALUEWASTE project. VALUEWASTE is about valorizing urban biowaste into proteins for food and feed and biofertilizers, closing the loop of this waste stream. In order to achieve this objective, the project validates three value chains, which begin with the anaerobic digestion of the biowaste. From the anaerobic digestion, three by-products are obtained: i) methane that is used by microorganisms, which will be transformed into microbial proteins; ii) digestate that is used by black soldier fly, producing insect proteins; and iii) a nutrient-rich effluent, which will be transformed into biofertilizers. VALUEWASTE is an innovative solution, which combines different technologies to valorize entirely the biowaste. However, it is also required to demonstrate that the solution is greener than other traditional technologies (baseline systems). On one hand, the proteins from microorganisms and insects will be compared with other reference protein production systems (gluten, whey and soybean). On the other hand, the biofertilizers will be compared to the production of mineral fertilizers (ammonium sulphate and synthetic struvite). Therefore, the aim of this study is to provide that biowaste valorization can reduce the environmental impacts linked to both traditional proteins manufacturing processes and mineral fertilizers, not only at a pilot-scale but also at an industrial one. In the present study, both baseline system and VALUEWASTE solution are evaluated through the Environmental Life Cycle Assessment (E-LCA). The E-LCA is based on the standards ISO 14040 and 14044. The Environmental Footprint methodology was the one used in this study to evaluate the environmental impacts. The results for the baseline cases show that the food proteins coming from whey have the highest environmental impact on ecosystems compared to the other proteins sources: 7.5 and 15.9 folds higher than soybean and gluten, respectively. Comparing feed soybean and gluten, soybean has an environmental impact on human health 195.1 folds higher. In the case of biofertilizers, synthetic struvite has higher impacts than ammonium sulfate: 15.3 (ecosystems) and 11.8 (human health) fold, respectively. The results shown in the present study will be used as a reference to demonstrate the better environmental performance of the bio-based products obtained through the VALUEWASTE solution. Other originalities that the E-LCA performed in the VALUEWASTE project provides are the diverse direct implications on investment and policies. On one hand, better environmental performance will serve to remove the barriers linked to these kinds of technologies, boosting the investment that is backed by the E-LCA. On the other hand, it will be a germ to design new policies fostering these types of solutions to achieve two of the key targets of the European Community: being self-sustainable and carbon neutral.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biofertilizers, circular economy, nutrients recovery

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Fabio Rodriguez Sanchez, Josef Bruers, Iciar Arteagoitia, Carlos Rodriguez Andres

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Background: Oral implants are a routine treatment to replace lost teeth. Although they have a high rate of success, implant failures do occur. Perioperative antibiotics have been suggested to prevent postoperative infections and dental implant failures, but they remain a controversial treatment among healthy patients. The objective of this study was to determine whether antibiotic prophylaxis is a common treatment in the Netherlands among general dentists, maxillofacial-surgeons, periodontists and implantologists in conjunction with oral implant surgery among healthy patients and to assess the nature of antibiotics prescriptions in order to evaluate whether any consensus has been reached and the current recommendations are being followed. Methodology: Observational cross-sectional study based on a web-survey reported according to the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines. A validated questionnaire, developed by Deeb et al. (2015), was translated and slightly adjusted to circumstances in the Netherlands. It was used with the explicit permission of the authors. This questionnaire contained both close-ended and some open-ended questions in relation to the following topics: demographics, qualification, antibiotic type, prescription-duration and dosage. An email was sent February 2018 to a sample of 600 general dentists and all 302 oral implantologists, periodontists and maxillofacial surgeons who were recognized by the Dutch Association of Oral Implantology (NVOI) as oral health care providers placing oral implants. The email included a brief introduction about the study objectives and a link to the web questionnaire, which could be filled in anonymously. Overall, 902 questionnaires were sent. However, 29 questionnaires were not correctly received due to an incorrect email address. So a total number of 873 professionals were reached. Collected data were analyzed using SPSS (IBM Corp., released 2012, Armonk, NY). Results: The questionnaire was sent back by a total number of 218 participants (response rate=24.2%), 45 female (20.8%) and 171 male (79.2%). Two respondents were excluded from the study group because they were not currently working as oral health providers. Overall 151 (69.9%) placed oral implants on regular basis. Approximately 79 (52.7%) of these participants prescribed antibiotics only in determined situations, 66 (44.0%) prescribed antibiotics always and 5 dentists (3.3%) did not prescribe antibiotics at all when placing oral implants. Overall, 83 participants who prescribed antibiotics, did so both pre- and postoperatively (58.5%), 12 exclusively postoperative (8.5%), and 47 followed an exclusive preoperative regime (33.1%). A single dose of 2,000 mg amoxicillin orally 1-hour prior treatment was the most prescribed preoperative regimen. The most frequent prescribed postoperative regimen was 500 mg amoxicillin three times daily for 7 days after surgery. On average, oral health professionals prescribed 6,923 mg antibiotics in conjunction with oral implant surgery, varying from 500 to 14,600 mg. Conclusions: Antibiotic prophylaxis in conjunction with oral implant surgery is prescribed in the Netherlands on a rather large scale. Dutch professionals might prescribe antibiotics more cautiously than in other countries and there seems to be a lower range on the different antibiotic types and regimens being prescribed. Anyway, recommendations based on last-published evidence are frequently not being followed.

Keywords: clinical decision making, infection control, antibiotic prophylaxis, dental implants

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Authors: Mario Tauzene Afonso Matangue, Ivan Andres Sanchez Ortiz

Abstract:

The Metropolitan area of Maputo (Mozambique Capital City) is located in semi-arid zone (800 mm annual rainfall) with 1101170 million inhabitants. On the west side, there are the flatlands of Infulene where the Mulauze River flows towards to the Indian Ocean, receiving at this site, the storm water contaminated with sanitary sewage from Maputo, transported through a concrete open channel. In Infulene, local communities grow salads crops such as tomato, onion, garlic, lettuce, and cabbage, which are then commercialized and consumed in several markets in Maputo City. Lettuce is the most daily consumed salad crop in different meals, generally in fast-foods, breakfasts, lunches, and dinners. However, the risk of infection by several pathogens due to the consumption of lettuce, using the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) tools, is still unknown since there are few studies or publications concerning to this matter in Mozambique. This work is aimed at determining the annual risk arising from the consumption of lettuce grown in Infulene valley, in Maputo, using QMRA tools. The exposure model was constructed upon the volume of contaminated water remaining in the lettuce leaves, the empirical relations between the number of pathogens and the indicator of microorganisms (E. coli), the consumption of lettuce (g) and reduction of pathogens (days). The reference pathogens were Vibrio cholerae, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Ascaris. The water quality samples (E. coli) were collected in the storm water channel from January 2016 to December 2018, comprising 65 samples, and the urban lettuce consumption data were collected through inquiry in Maputo Metropolis covering 350 persons. A non-parametric bootstrap was performed involving 10,000 iterations over the collected dataset, namely, water quality (E. coli) and lettuce consumption. The dose-response models were: Exponential for Cryptosporidium, Kummer Confluent hypergeomtric function (1F1) for Vibrio and Ascaris Gaussian hypergeometric function (2F1-(a,b;c;z) for norovirus. The annual infection risk estimates were performed using R 3.6.0 (CoreTeam) software by Monte Carlo (Latin hypercubes), a sampling technique involving 10,000 iterations. The annual infection risks values expressed by Median and the 95th percentile, per person per year (pppy) arising from the consumption of lettuce are as follows: Vibrio cholerae (1.00, 1.00), Cryptosporidium (3.91x10⁻³, 9.72x 10⁻³), nororvirus (5.22x10⁻¹, 9.99x10⁻¹) and Ascaris (2.59x10⁻¹, 9.65x10⁻¹). Thus, the consumption of the lettuce would result in greater risks than the tolerable levels ( < 10⁻³ pppy or 10⁻⁶ DALY) for all pathogens, and the Vibrio cholerae is the most virulent pathogens, according to the hit-single models followed by the Ascaris lumbricoides and norovirus. The sensitivity analysis carried out in this work pointed out that in the whole QMRA, the most important input variable was the reduction of pathogens (Spearman rank value was 0.69) between harvest and consumption followed by water quality (Spearman rank value was 0.69). The decision-makers (Mozambique Government) must strengthen the prevention measures related to pathogens reduction in lettuce (i.e., washing) and engage in wastewater treatment engineering.

Keywords: annual infections risk, lettuce, non-parametric bootstrapping, quantitative microbial risk assessment tools

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