Search results for: risk stratification tool

Authors: Vrinda Hari Ankolekar

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Introduction: The advancement of various audio-visual aids in the present era has led to progressive changes in education. Use of powerpoint presentations play a key role in anatomy to learn and understand a particular topic. As the subject of anatomy involves more of illustrations and demonstrations, powerpoint presentations become essential in conveying the necessary information. Objectives: To assess the students’ perspective about the use of powerpoint presentations in teaching anatomy.Method: A questionnaire was constructed and 55 students were asked to put forth their preferences for the powerpoint presentations or blackboard that would help them to understand the subject better. Results and conclusion: 30 voted PPT as better and effective tool to explain the subject efficiently. 35 chose PPT as more creative than Blackboard to create interest in the subject. 20 wanted to retain chalk and talk for teaching their subject instead of replacing it with PowerPoint. 36 felt chalk and talk as more useful and appropriate tool for teaching than PowerPoint. Only 25 felt chalk and talk relatively more boring than PowerPoint. 23 experienced more involvement and active participation in the class when chalk and talk is used as the teaching tool. 26 stated that chalk and talk has most of the features needed for teaching.One of the limitations of this study is that the sample size is drawn from one institution only and deals with the experience of one particular group of individuals.

Keywords: chalk and board, powerpoint presentation, presentation skills, teaching technologies

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Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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Authors: Murat Gunduz, Mustafa Ozdemir

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In this research, a framework is to be proposed to model the safety performance in construction sites. Determinants of safety performance are to be defined through extensive literature review and a multidimensional safety performance model is to be developed. In this context, a questionnaire is to be administered to construction companies with sites. The collected data through questionnaires including linguistic terms are then to be defuzzified to get concrete numbers by using fuzzy set theory which provides strong and significant instruments for the measurement of ambiguities and provides the opportunity to meaningfully represent concepts expressed in the natural language. The validity of the proposed safety performance model, relationships between determinants of safety performance are to be analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) which is a highly strong multi variable analysis technique that makes possible the evaluation of latent structures. After validation of the model, a safety performance index assessment tool is to be proposed by the help of software. The proposed safety performance assessment tool will be based on the empirically validated theoretical model.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, safety performance assessment, safety index, structural equation modeling (SEM), construction sites

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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The megacity of Abidjan is a coastal urban area where the number of floods reported and the associated impacts are on a rapid increase due to climate change, an uncontrolled urbanization, a rapid population increase, a lack of flood disaster mitigation and citizens’ awareness. The objective of this research is to reduce in the short and long term period, the human and socio-economic impact of the flood. Hydrological simulation is applied on free of charge global spatial data (digital elevation model, satellite-based rainfall estimate, landuse) to identify the flood-prone area and to map the risk of flood. A direct interview to a sample residents is used to validate the simulation results. Then a mobile application (Flood Locator) is prototyped to disseminate the risk information to the citizen. In addition, a value capture strategy is proposed to mobilize financial resource for disaster risk reduction (DRRf) to reduce the impact of the flood. The town of Cocody in Abidjan is selected as a case study area to implement this research. The mapping of the flood risk reveals that population living in the study area is highly vulnerable. For a 5-year flood, more than 60% of the floodplain is affected by a water depth of at least 0.5 meters; and more than 1000 ha with at least 5000 buildings are directly exposed. The risk becomes higher for a 50 and 100-year floods. Also, the interview reveals that the majority of the citizen are not aware of the risk and severity of flooding in their community. This shortage of information is overcome by the Flood Locator and by an urban flood database we prototype for accumulate flood data. Flood Locator App allows the users to view floodplain and depth on a digital map; the user can activate the GPS sensor of the mobile to visualize his location on the map. Some more important additional features allow the citizen user to capture flood events and damage information that they can send remotely to the database. Also, the disclosure of the risk information could result to a decrement (-14%) of the value of properties locate inside floodplain and an increment (+19%) of the value of property in the suburb area. The tax increment due to the higher tax increment in the safer area should be captured to constitute the DRRf. The fund should be allocated to the reduction of flood risk for the benefit of people living in flood-prone areas. The flood prevention system discusses in this research will minimize in the short and long term the direct damages in the risky area due to effective awareness of citizen and the availability of DRRf. It will also contribute to the growth of the urban area in the safer zone and reduce human settlement in the risky area in the long term. Data accumulated in the urban flood database through the warning app will contribute to regenerate Abidjan towards the more resilient city by means of risk avoidable landuse in the master plan.

Keywords: abidjan, database, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, smartphone, value capture

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, sharpe ratio

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Authors: Janani Selvaraj, M. Prashanthi Devi, P. B. Harathi

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Epidemiologic studies conducted over several decades have provided evidence to suggest that long-term exposure to elevated ambient levels of particulate air pollution is associated with increased mortality. Air quality risk management is significant in developing countries and it highlights the need to understand the role of ecologic covariates in the association between air pollution and mortality. Several new methods show promise in exploring the geographical distribution of disease and the identification of high risk areas using epidemiological maps. However, the addition of the temporal attribute would further give us an in depth idea of the disease burden with respect to forecasting measures. In recent years, new methods developed in the reanalysis were useful for exploring the spatial structure of the data and the impact of spatial autocorrelation on estimates of risk associated with exposure to air pollution. Based on this, our present study aims to explore the spatial and temporal distribution of the lung cancer cases in the Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu in relation to air pollution risk areas. A spatio temporal moving average method was computed using the CrimeStat software and visualized in ArcGIS 10.1 to document the spatio temporal movement of the disease in the study region. The random walk analysis performed showed the progress of the peak cancer incidences in the intersection regions of the Coimbatore North and South taluks that include major commercial and residential regions like Gandhipuram, Peelamedu, Ganapathy, etc. Our study shows evidence that daily exposure to high air pollutant concentration zones may lead to the risk of lung cancer. The observations from the present study will be useful in delineating high risk zones of environmental exposure that contribute to the increase of cancer among daily commuters. Through our study we suggest that spatially resolved exposure models in relevant time frames will produce higher risks zones rather than solely on statistical theory about the impact of measurement error and the empirical findings.

Keywords: air pollution, cancer, spatio-temporal analysis, India

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Authors: Yunfan Jiang

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In response to an identified gap in available treatment programmes for high-risk offenders with multiple criminogenic needs and guided by emerging literature in the field of correctional rehabilitation, Singapore Prison Service (SPS) developed the Integrated Criminogenic Programme (ICP) in 2012. This evidence-informed psychological programme was designed to address all seven dynamic criminogenic needs (from the Central 8) of high-risk offenders by applying concepts from rehabilitation and psychological theories such as Risk-Need-Responsivity, Good Lives Model, narrative identity, and motivational interviewing. This programme also encompasses a 6-month community maintenance component for the purpose of providing structured step-down support in the aftercare setting. These sessions provide participants the opportunity for knowledge reinforcement and application of skills attained in-care. A quantitative evaluation of the ICP showed that the intervention group had statistically significant improvements across time in most self-report measures of criminal attitudes, substance use attitudes, and psychosocial functioning. This was congruent with qualitative data from participants saying that the ICP had the most impact on their criminal thinking patterns and management of behaviours in high-risk situations. Results from the comparison group showed no difference in their criminal attitudes, even though they reported statistically significant improvements across time in their substance use attitudes and some self-report measures of psychosocial functioning. The programme’s efficacy was also apparent in the lower rates of recidivism and relapse within 12 months for the intervention group. The management of staff issues arising from the development and implementation of an innovative high-intensity psychological programme such as the ICP will also be discussed.

Keywords: evaluation, forensic psychology, intervention programme, offender rehabilitation

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Authors: Tatsuhiko Aizawa, Hiroshi Morita

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The tool steels such as SKD11 and SKH51 have been utilized as punch and die substrates for cold stamping, forging, and fine blanking processes. The heat-treated SKD11 punches with the hardness of 700 HV wrought well in the stamping of SPCC, normal steel plates, and non-ferrous alloy such as a brass sheet. However, they suffered from severe damage in the fine blanking process of smaller holes than 1.5 mm in diameter. Under the high aspect ratio of punch length to diameter, an elastoplastic bucking of slender punches occurred on the production line. The heat-treated punches had a risk of chipping at their edges. To be free from those damages, the blanking punch must have sufficient rigidity and strength at the same time. In the present paper, the small-hole blanking punch with a dual toughness structure was proposed to provide a solution to this engineering issue in production. The low-temperature plasma nitriding process was utilized to form the nitrogen supersaturated thick layer into the original SKD11 punch. Through the plasma nitriding at 673 K for 14.4 ks, the nitrogen supersaturated layer, with the thickness of 50 μm and without nitride precipitates, was formed as a high nitrogen steel (HNS) layer surrounding the original SKD11 punch. In this two-zone structured SKD11 punch, the surface hardness increased from 700 HV for the heat-treated SKD11 to 1400 HV. This outer high nitrogen SKD11 (HN-SKD11) layer had a homogeneous nitrogen solute depth profile with a nitrogen solute content plateau of 4 mass% till the border between the outer HN-SKD11 layer and the original SKD11 matrix. When stamping the brass sheet with the thickness of 1 mm by using this dually toughened SKD11 punch, the punch life was extended from 500 K shots to 10000 K shots to attain a much more stable production line to yield the brass American snaps. Furthermore, with the aid of the masking technique, the punch side surface layer with the thickness of 50 μm was modified by this high nitrogen super-saturation process to have a stripe structure where the un-nitrided SKD11 and the HN-SKD11 layers were alternatively aligned from the punch head to the punch bottom. This flexible structuring promoted the mechanical integrity of total rigidity and toughness as a punch with an extremely small diameter.

Keywords: high nitrogen supersaturation, semi-dry cold stamping, solid solution hardening, tool steel dies, low temperature nitriding, dual toughness structure, extremely small diameter punch

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Authors: Francisca Onaolapo Oladipo, Peter Afam Ugwu

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Records of user activities which are valuable for forensic investigation purposes are provided by web browsers -these records in most cases are not in visual formats that are easily understood, thereby requiring some extra processes. This paper describes the implementation of a software tool for client-side web history visualization providing suitable forensic evidence for investigative purposes. Visual C#, Perl and gnuplot were deployed on Windows Operating System (OS) environment to implement the system and the resulting tool parses and transforms a web browser history into a visual format that enables an investigator to quickly and efficiently explore, understand, and interpret the user online activities in the context of a specific investigation. The system was tested using two forensic cases: the client-side web history files generated by Mozilla Firefox browser was extracted using MozillaHistoryView utility, then parsed and visualized using bar and stacked column charts. From the visual representation, results of user web activities across various productive and non-productive websites were obtained.

Keywords: history, forensics, visualization, web activities

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Authors: Boma Nellie S, Nambiar Ritu, K. Kanchanmala, T. Rashida, Israell Imelda, Moul Khusnud, Michael Marina

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Gestational diabetes (GDM) imparts an increased life long risk of developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease in women. Once diagnosed with GDM women have up to 74% increased cumulative risk developing T2DM in 10-15 years. Identifying women at increased risk of developing T2DM and offering them pharmacological and lifestyle management interventions will delay or eliminate the development of diabetes in this population. While ADA recommends that all gestational diabetics be offered postnatal screening, worldwide the screening rates from 35-75% and Al Rahba Hospital with a robust universal antenatal screening program for GDM was at a dismal 9% in 2011. A multidisciplinary team was put together involving OB/Gyn Physicians, Midwives, Nurses (ward and OPD) Diabetic Educators, Dietitians, Medical Records, Laboratory & IT with the implementation of multiple strategies to increase the uptake of postpartum screening of the gestational diabetic.

Keywords: GDM, postnatal screening, preventing type 2 diabetes, lifestyle management

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Authors: Rodchares Hanrinth, Theerapong Srisil, Peeraya Sriphong, Pawich Paktipat

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The trigger tool is the low-cost, low-tech method to detect adverse events through clues called triggers. The Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI) has developed the Global Trigger Tool for measuring and preventing adverse events. However, this tool is not specific for detecting adverse drug events. The pharmacy-based trigger tool is needed to detect adverse drug events (ADEs). Group concept mapping is an effective method for conceptualizing various ideas from diverse stakeholders. This technique was used to identify a pharmacy-based trigger to detect adverse drug events (ADEs). The aim of this study was to involve the pharmacists in conceptualizing, developing, and prioritizing a feasible trigger tool to detect adverse drug events in a provincial hospital, the northeastern part of Thailand. The study was conducted during the 6-month period between April 1 and September 30, 2017. Study participants involved 20 pharmacists (17 hospital pharmacists and 3 pharmacy lecturers) engaging in three concept mapping workshops. In this meeting, the concept mapping technique created by Trochim, a highly constructed qualitative group technic for idea generating and sharing, was used to produce and construct participants' views on what triggers were potential to detect ADEs. During the workshops, participants (n = 20) were asked to individually rate the feasibility and potentiality of each trigger and to group them into relevant categories to enable multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis. The outputs of analysis included the trigger list, cluster list, point map, point rating map, cluster map, and cluster rating map. The three workshops together resulted in 21 different triggers that were structured in a framework forming 5 clusters: drug allergy, drugs induced diseases, dosage adjustment in renal diseases, potassium concerning, and drug overdose. The first cluster is drug allergy such as the doctor’s orders for dexamethasone injection combined with chlorpheniramine injection. Later, the diagnosis of drug-induced hepatitis in a patient taking anti-tuberculosis drugs is one trigger in the ‘drugs induced diseases’ cluster. Then, for the third cluster, the doctor’s orders for enalapril combined with ibuprofen in a patient with chronic kidney disease is the example of a trigger. The doctor’s orders for digoxin in a patient with hypokalemia is a trigger in a cluster. Finally, the doctor’s orders for naloxone with narcotic overdose was classified as a trigger in a cluster. This study generated triggers that are similar to some of IHI Global trigger tool, especially in the medication module such as drug allergy and drug overdose. However, there are some specific aspects of this tool, including drug-induced diseases, dosage adjustment in renal diseases, and potassium concerning which do not contain in any trigger tools. The pharmacy-based trigger tool is suitable for pharmacists in hospitals to detect potential adverse drug events using clues of triggers.

Keywords: adverse drug events, concept mapping, hospital, pharmacy-based trigger tool

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Authors: Marta Cordero-Gracia, Mariola Gomez, Olivier Blesbois, Marina Carrion

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One of the difficulties in icing simulations is for extended periods of exposure, when very large ice shapes are created. As well as being large, they can have complex shapes, such as a double horn. For icing simulations, these configurations are currently computed in several steps. The icing step is stopped when the ice shapes become too large, at which point a new mesh has to be created to allow for further CFD and ice growth simulations to be performed. This can be very costly, and is a limiting factor in the simulations that can be performed. A way to avoid the costly human intervention in the re-meshing step of multistep icing computation is to use mesh deformation instead of re-meshing. The aim of the present work is to apply an interpolation method based on Radial Basis Functions (RBF) to transfer deformations from surface mesh to volume mesh. This deformation tool has been developed specifically for icing problems. It is able to deal with localized, sharp and large deformations, unlike the tools traditionally used for more smooth wing deformations. This tool will be presented along with validation on typical two-dimensional icing shapes.

Keywords: ice accretion, interpolation, mesh deformation, radial basis functions

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Authors: E. K. A. Ogunshile

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This paper is aimed at creating an Automatic Java X-Machine testing tool for software development. The nature of software development is changing; thus, the type of software testing tools required is also changing. Software is growing increasingly complex and, in part due to commercial impetus for faster software releases with new features and value, increasingly in danger of containing faults. These faults can incur huge cost for software development organisations and users; Cambridge Judge Business School’s research estimated the cost of software bugs to the global economy is $312 billion. Beyond the cost, faster software development methodologies and increasing expectations on developers to become testers is driving demand for faster, automated, and effective tools to prevent potential faults as early as possible in the software development lifecycle. Using X-Machine theory, this paper will explore a new tool to address software complexity, changing expectations on developers, faster development pressures and methodologies, with a view to reducing the huge cost of fixing software bugs.

Keywords: conformance testing, finite state machine, software testing, x-machine

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Authors: Keunock Lew, Seungryul Ma

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The paper analyzes risk and expected return of lenders who provide mortgage loans to households in the shared mortgage program of Korea. In 2013, the Korean government introduced the mortgage program to help low income householders to convert their renting into purchasing houses. The financial source for the mortgage program is the Urban Housing Fund set up by the Korean government. Through the program, low income households can borrow money from lenders to buy a house at a very low interest rate (e.g. 1 % per year) for a long time. The motivation of adopting this mortgage program by the Korean government is that the cost of renting houses has been rapidly increased especially in large urban areas during the past decade, which became financial difficulties to low income households who do not have their own houses. As the analysis methodology, the paper uses a spread sheet model for projecting cash flows of the mortgage product over the period of loan contract. It also employs Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the risk and expected yield of the lenders with assumption that the future housing price and market rate of interest follow a stochastic process. The study results will give valuable implications to the Korean government and lenders who want to stabilize the mortgage program and innovate the related loan products.

Keywords: expected return, Monte Carlo simulation, risk, shared mortgage program

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Authors: Genesis F. Dela Cruz, Liza C. Costa

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The study is concerned with the Risk factors of dropping out among Grade VII students for SY 2012-2013. A total of 87 Grade VII Students-At-Risk-of-Dropping Out (SARDOs) were involved in this study. The descriptive survey method was used in this study. A 50-item questionnaire was used in data gathering. Expert validation was done to determine the validity and reliability of the instrument. The study used Chi Square, Kruskal Wallis Test and Mann Whitney Test in the statistical treatment of data. The study revealed that the respondents are within the standard age limit for Grade VII students in the Philippines which is 13 years old. Males more than females usually becomes SARDOs. SARDOs come from low economic status and complete families contrary to the common belief that they came from single-parent families. The study also showed that parent’s involvement in educating their children on family-related factors contributed to the very good perception on the family related factors. Based on age, there are no significant differences in their perception of the four major recognized risk factors for dropping out among all ages. There are no significant differences in their perception of the family, individual and community related factors for dropping out based on sex. However, females have a more favorable perception when it comes to school related factors. No significant differences in their perception of dropping out were also noted when they are classified according to distance of school from home. The respondents do not differ in their perception on family, individual and community related factors when they are classified according to type of family. When surveyed regarding the respondents’ reason for being absent, it was found out that laziness and being late are the two major reasons. Respondents also perceived remedial and tutorial classes as school-initiated intervention measure to prevent school disengagement or dropping out.

Keywords: drop-out, guidance and counseling, school initiated intervention, students at risk of dropping out

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Authors: A. H. Bekhet, N. Helmy

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Background: Physical therapists are knowledgeable in treatment and prevention of musculoskeletal injuries; however, they have occupational musculoskeletal injuries because Physical therapy profession requires effort that may lead to work-related musculoskeletal disorders. No previous studies among physical therapists have been reported in Egypt. We aim to assess the prevalence and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders among physical therapist’s seniors versus internship students. Method: We conducted a cross-sectional study in faculty of physical therapy Cairo university Prevalence and risk factors of musculoskeletal injuries were assessed using self-administered questionnaire with closed-ended questions. Seniors therapist was defined as a physical therapist with more than 5 years of work experience. Data were analyzed using SPSS 22.0 for Windows. Results: The study included 106 physical therapists (Junior = 72; senior = 34), the mean age of senior therapists was 30.1 (SD 6.3) years and junior therapists were 22.8 (SD 2.4). Female subjects constituted 83.9% of the studied sample. The mean hours of contact with patients was higher among junior therapists 6.4 (SD 2.6) vs. 5.7 (SD 2.1) among senior therapists. The prevalence of a musculoskeletal injury, once or more in their lifetime, was significantly higher among senior therapists (86% vs. 66.7%; p = 0.04). The highest risk factor in increasing the symptoms of the injury among junior therapists was maintaining a position for a prolonged period of time at 28% while performing manual therapy techniques was the highest risk factor among senior therapists at 32%. 53% of senior therapists have limited their patient contact time as a result of their injury in comparison to 25% of junior therapists (p = 0.09). Conclusion: the presented study shows that the prevalence of musculoskeletal injuries, once or more in their lifetime, is significantly higher among senior therapists.

Keywords: musculoskeletal injuries, occupational injuries, physical therapists, work related disorders

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Authors: Maja S. Todorovic

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This paper aims to promote entrepreneurial storytelling by exploring new ideas and learning practices. An entrepreneur needs to be a ‘storyteller’, an ‘epic hero’, capable of offering an emotional connection to his audience, a character with whom audience can identify with, rejoice, suffer, celebrate, fail – simply experience everything. In other words, a successful entrepreneur is giving tangible experience through his business story and that’s what makes his story and business alive. Use of mythology, eulogy, metaphor, epic, fairytales and cartoons, permeated with humor and sudden twists is a winning recipe for a business story that captures attention. In the business case of the Greenesignit! Card game, (educational and brainstorming tool for development of sustainable products) we will demonstrate how an entrepreneur successfully used visual narrative to communicate his story and at the same time as a vehicle to transmute his message in learning tool and product development.

Keywords: animating narrative, entrepreneur, Greeneisgnit! card game, visual storytelling

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Authors: Ibrahim Isa Ali (Pantami), Abdu Jaafaru Bambale, Abimbola Alale, Danjuma Ibrahim Ndihgihdah, Muhammad Alkali, Adamu Idris Umar, Babadoko Dantala Mohammed, Moshood Kareem Olawole

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This paper dwells on the risk management required for High throughput Satellite (HTS) project, and major subsystems that pertains to the improved performance and reliability of the spacecraft. The paper gives a clear picture of high‐throughput satellites (HTS) and the associated technologies with performances as they align and differ with the traditional geostationary orbit or Geosynchronous Equatorial Orbit (GEO) Communication Satellites. The paper also highlights critical subsystems and processes in project conceptualization and execution. The paper discusses the configuration of the payload. The need for optimization of resources for the HTS project and successful integration of critical subsystems for spacecraft requires implementation of risk analysis and mitigation from the preliminary design stage; Assembly, Integration and Test (AIT); Launch and in-orbit- Management stage.

Keywords: AIT, HTS, in-orbit management, optimization

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Authors: Nicolas Georges, Akiki Simon, Bassil Naim, Nawfal Georges, Abi Fares Georges

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Introduction: Dyslipidemia has been recognized as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. While the development of atherosclerotic lesions begins in childhood and progresses throughout life, data on the prevalence of dyslipidemic children in Lebanon is lacking. Objectives: This study was conducted to assess the benefit of a protocol for universal screening for lipid disorder in Lebanese children aged between two and ten years old. Materials and Methods: A total of four hundred children aged 2 to 10 years old (51.5% boys) were included in the study. The subjects were recruited from private pediatric clinics after parental consent. Fasting total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels were measured and non-HDL cholesterol was calculated. The values were categorized according to 2011 Expert on Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents. Results: The overall prevalence of high TC ( ≥ 200 mg/dL), high non-HDL-C ( ≥ 145 mg/dL), high LDL ( ≥ 130 mg/dL), high TG ( ≥ 100 mg/dL) and low HDL ( < 40 mg/dL) was respectively 19.5%, 23%, 19%, 31.8% and 20%. The overall frequency of dyslipidemia was 51.7%. In a bivariate analysis, dyslipidemia in children was associated with a BMI ≥ 95ᵗʰ percentile and parents having TC > 240 mg/dL with a P value respectively of 0.006 and 0.0001. Furthermore, high TG was independently associated with a BMI ≥ 95ᵗʰ percentile (P=0.0001). Children with parents having TC > 240 mg/dL was significantly correlated with high TC, high non-HDL-C and high LDL (P=0.0001 for all variables). Finally, according to the Pediatric dyslipidemia screening guidelines from the 2011 Expert Panel, 62.3% of dyslipidemic children had at least 1 risk factor that qualified them for screening while 37.7% of them didn’t have any risk factor. Conclusions: It is preferable to review the latest pediatric dyslipidemia screening guidelines by performing a universal screening program since a third of our dyslipidemic Lebanese children have been missed.

Keywords: cardiovascular risk factors, dyslipidemia, Lebanese children, screening

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Authors: Wallyson Thomas, Zsombor Fulop, Attila Szilagyi

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Impact dampers are mainly used in the metal-mechanical industry in operations that generate too much vibration in the machining system. Internal turning processes become unstable during the machining of deep holes, in which the tool holder is used with long overhangs (high length-to-diameter ratios). The devices coupled with active dampers, are expensive and require the use of advanced electronics. On the other hand, passive impact dampers (PID – Particle Impact Dampers) are cheaper alternatives that are easier to adapt to the machine’s fixation system, once that, in this last case, a cavity filled with particles is simply added to the structure of the tool holder. The cavity dimensions and the diameter of the spheres are pre-determined. Thus, when passive dampers are employed during the machining process, the vibration is transferred from the tip of the tool to the structure of the boring bar, where it is absorbed by the fixation system. This work proposes to compare the behaviors of a conventional solid boring bar and a boring bar with a passive impact damper in turning while using the highest possible L/D (length-to-diameter ratio) of the tool and an Easy Fix fixation system (also called: Split Bushing Holding System). It is also intended to optimize the impact absorption parameters, as the filling percentage of the cavity and the diameter of the spheres. The test specimens were made of hardened material and machined in a Computer Numerical Control (CNC) lathe. The laboratory tests showed that when the cavity of the boring bar is totally filled with minimally spaced spheres of the largest diameter, the gain in absorption allowed of obtaining, with an L/D equal to 6, the same surface roughness obtained when using the solid boring bar with an L/D equal to 3.4. The use of the passive particle impact damper resulted in, therefore, increased static stiffness and reduced deflexion of the tool.

Keywords: active damper, fixation system, hardened material, passive damper

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Authors: Muhammad Jamil, Ning He, Wei Zhao

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Ti-6Al-4V has poor thermal conductivity (6.7W/mK) accumulates shear and friction heat at the tool-chip interface zone. To dissipate the heat generation and friction effect, cryogenic cooling, Minimum quantity lubrication (MQL), nanofluids, hybrid cryogenic-MQL, solid lubricants, etc are applied frequently to underscore their significant effect on improving the machinability of Ti-6Al-4V. Nowadays, hybrid lubri-cooling is getting attention from researchers to explore their effect on machining Ti-6Al-4V.

Keywords: hybrid lubri-cooling, tool wear, surface roughness, minimum quantity lubrication

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Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

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Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km2, is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R2, which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, modeling, sensitivity analysis, SWAT, water yield, watershed level

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Authors: Frederic Jumelle, Kelvin So, Didan Deng

Abstract:

A method and system for neuropsychological performance test, comprising a mobile terminal, used to interact with a cloud server which stores user information and is logged into by the user through the terminal device; the user information is directly accessed through the terminal device and is processed by artificial neural network, and the user information comprises user facial emotions information, performance test answers information and user chronometrics. This assessment is used to evaluate the cognitive performance and emotional response of the subject to a series of dichotomous questions describing various situations of daily life and challenging the users' knowledge, values, ethics, and principles. In industrial applications, the timing of this assessment will depend on the users' need to obtain a service from a provider, such as opening a bank account, getting a mortgage or an insurance policy, authenticating clearance at work, or securing online payments.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, neurofinance, neuropsychology, risk management

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: D.Mendes, J. Henriques, P. Carvalho, T. Rocha, S. Paredes, R. Cabiddu, R. Trimer, R. Mendes, A. Borghi-Silva, L. Kaminsky, E. Ashley, R. Arena, J. Myers

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The continued exploration of clinically relevant predictive models continues to be an important pursuit. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) portends clinical vital information and as such its accurate prediction is of high importance. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to develop a data-driven model, based on computational intelligence techniques and, in particular, clustering approaches, to predict CRF. Two prediction models were implemented and compared: 1) the traditional Wasserman/Hansen Equations; and 2) an interpretable clustering approach. Data used for this analysis were from the 'FRIEND - Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise: The National Data Base'; in the present study a subset of 10690 apparently healthy individuals were utilized. The accuracy of the models was performed through the computation of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean values. The results show the superiority of the clustering approach in the accurate estimation of CRF (i.e., maximal oxygen consumption).

Keywords: cardiorespiratory fitness, data-driven models, knowledge extraction, machine learning

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Authors: Sayali Vyas, Atharva Desai, Shreyas Badave, Apurv Kulkarni, B. Rajiv

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The Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is an efficient evaluation technique to identify potential failures in products, processes, and services. FMEA is designed to identify and prioritize failure modes. It proves to be a useful method for identifying and correcting possible failures at its earliest possible level so that one can avoid consequences of poor performance. In this paper, FMEA tool is used in detection of failures of various components of heat exchanger cycle and to identify critical failures of the components which may hamper the system’s performance. Further, a detailed Pareto analysis is done to find out the most critical components of the cycle, the causes of its failures, and possible recommended actions. This paper can be used as a checklist which will help in maintainability of the system.

Keywords: FMEA, heat exchanger cycle, Ishikawa diagram, pareto analysis, RPN (Risk Priority Number)

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

Abstract:

Background: Inattentive food choices and engagement in excessive physical activities by male athletes can potentially lead to adverse health consequences. Objective: The aim was to ascertain the occurrence of risk factors associated with the Male Athlete Triad among young elite athletes in Pakistan. Methodology: In 2018, a cross-sectional study based on questionnaires was conducted at the Pakistan Sports Board. The study aimed to explore the risk factors related to the Male Athlete Triad in young elite athletes who were part of national training camps in major metropolitan areas. The study included proficient male elite athletes aged 18 to 25 years, capable of understanding the English questionnaire. The athletes completed a survey encompassing aspects like demographic information, educational background, Body Mass Index (BMI), sports involvement, and hours of participation. Additionally, they filled out the Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and questionnaires assessing risks of amenorrhea and low bone mineral density. The prevalence of risk factors for each of the three components was individually evaluated. The collected data underwent analysis using SPSS-20, with descriptive statistics being applied. Results: The study comprised a sample of 90 elite athletes (mean age: 23.57 ± 2.37 years, mean BMI: 21.97 ± 1.90) engaged in various sports. The EAT-26 results indicated that 50% of athletes were at risk of developing an eating disorder. Moreover, 83.3% exhibited disordered eating behaviors that necessitated referral. Risks for amenorrhea were observed in 15% of the participants, and regarding low bone mineral density, notable risks were absent except for the consumption of caffeinated beverages, which was noted in 51.7% of participants. Conclusion: The study identified a significant prevalence of disordered eating risk among male elite athletes in Pakistan. However, the risks associated with amenorrhea and low bone mineral density were not a major concern in this particular group.

Keywords: Pakistan, osteoporosis, female athlete triad, bone mineral density, athlete, amenorrhea, eating disorders

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem Ullah Khan Sumbal, Eric Tsui, Ricky Cheong, Eric See To

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Organizations are posed to a threat of valuable knowledge loss when employees leave either due to retirement, resignation, job change or because of disabilities e.g. death, etc. Due to changing economic conditions, globalization, and aging workforce, organizations are facing challenges regarding retention of valuable knowledge. On the one hand, large number of employees are going to retire in the organizations whereas on the other hand, younger generation does not want to work in a company for a long time and there is an increasing trend of frequent job change among the new generation. Because of these factors, organizations need to make sure that they capture the knowledge of employee before (s)he walks out of the door. The first step in this process is to know what type of knowledge employee possesses and whether this knowledge is important for the organization. Researchers reveal in the literature that despite the serious consequences of knowledge loss in terms of organizational productivity and competitive advantage, there has not been much work done in the area of knowledge loss assessment of departing employees. An important step in the knowledge retention process is to determine the critical ‘at risk’ knowledge. Thus, knowledge loss risk assessment is a process by which organizations can gauge the importance of knowledge of the departing employee. The purpose of this study is to explore this topic of knowledge loss risk assessment by conducting a qualitative study in oil and gas sector. By engaging in dialogues with managers and executives of the organizations through in-depth interviews and adopting a grounded methodology approach, the research will explore; i) Are there any measures adopted by organizations to assess the risk of knowledge loss from departing employees? ii) Which factors are crucial for knowledge loss assessment in the organizations? iii) How can we prioritize the employees for knowledge retention according to their criticality? Grounded theory approach is used when there is not much knowledge available in the area under research and thus new knowledge is generated about the topic through an in-depth exploration of the topic by using methods such as interviews and using a systematic approach to analyze the data. The outcome of the study will generate a model for the risk of knowledge loss through factors such as the likelihood of knowledge loss, the consequence/impact of knowledge loss and quality of the knowledge loss of departing employees. Initial results show that knowledge loss assessment is quite crucial for the organizations and it helps in determining what types of knowledge employees possess e.g. organizations knowledge, subject matter expertise or relationships knowledge. Based on that, it can be assessed which employee is more important for the organizations and how to prioritize the knowledge retention process for departing employees.

Keywords: knowledge loss, risk assessment, departing employees, Hong Kong organizations

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Authors: Yilei Song, Linlin Tian, Ning Zhao

Abstract:

Turbulence energetics and structures in the wake of large-scale wind turbines under the stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) can be complicated due to the presence of low-level jets (LLJs), a region of higher wind speeds than the geostrophic wind speed. With a modified one-k-equation, eddy viscosity model specified for atmospheric flows as the sub-grid scale (SGS) model, a realistic atmospheric state of the stable ABL is well reproduced by large-eddy simulation (LES) techniques. Corresponding to the precursor stably stratification, the detailed wake properties of a standard 5-MW wind turbine represented as an actuator line model are provided. An engineering model is proposed for wake prediction based on the simulation statistics and gets validated. Results confirm that the proposed wake model can provide good predictions for wind turbines under the SABL.

Keywords: large-eddy simulation, stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer, wake model, wind turbine wake

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Authors: Raquel Balon Quintana

Abstract:

This study aims to help the Students-At-Risk of Dropping Out to finish their studies in their grade/year level category for this school year by finding out students’ behavior in and out the school, community involvement in the learning process and the causes or reasons behind drop-out rate that affect the performance level of the school. This study also looked for the intervention measures to reduce the drop-out rate of the school. The Normative Survey Method of research was used to achieve its purpose and objective of conducting interview with students and their parents, subject teachers, classmates and friends; undertaking observation and monitoring to find out the whereabouts of SARDO’s on and off classes hours; using questionnaires; and conducting home visitation to be able to link the community involvement into dropping-out of student. Results of the study revealed that out of 32 Students-At-Risk of Dropping Out, 50% were over age for high school (16 years old to 21 years old) while the other 50% came from the regular high school students. These 16 students came from the 41 students who dropped-out from their classes last school year. All Students-At-Risk of Dropping-Out are single and seventy-eight percent of them are male. Top five (5) among the factors that affect their school performance were peer pressure, self-drive, malnutrition, family problem/support and truancy. The five (5) least factors that affect their schooling were problems within their community, school-administration factor, harassment, teacher factor and distance from the school.

Keywords: students-at-risk of dropping-out, drop-out rate, Leocadio Alejo Entienza High School, Philippines

Procedia PDF Downloads 533