Search results for: leverage decision

Authors: G. Singer, M. Golan

Abstract:

Providing students with learning disabilities (LD) with extra time to grant them equal access to the exam is a necessary but insufficient condition to compensate for their LD; there should also be a clear indication that the additional time was actually used. For example, if students with LD use more time than students without LD and yet receive lower grades, this may indicate that a different accommodation is required. If they achieve higher grades but use the same amount of time, then the effectiveness of the accommodation has not been demonstrated. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of including parameters related to LD and extended exam time, along with other commonly-used characteristics (e.g., student background and ability measures such as high-school grades), on the ability of ordinal decision-tree algorithms to predict exam performance. We use naturally-occurring data collected from hundreds of undergraduate engineering students. The sub-goals are i) to examine the improvement in prediction accuracy when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' in addition to the conventional indicator (exam grade) employed in most research; ii) to explore the effectiveness of extended exam time on exam performance for different courses and for LD students with different profiles (i.e., sets of characteristics). This is achieved by using the patterns (i.e., subgroups) generated by the algorithms to identify pairs of subgroups that differ in just one characteristic (e.g., course or type of LD) but have different outcomes in terms of exam performance (grade and time used). Since grade and time used to exhibit an ordering form, we propose a method based on ordinal decision-trees, which applies a weighted information-gain ratio (WIGR) measure for selecting the classifying attributes. Unlike other known ordinal algorithms, our method does not assume monotonicity in the data. The proposed WIGR is an extension of an information-theoretic measure, in the sense that it adjusts to the case of an ordinal target and takes into account the error severity between two different target classes. Specifically, we use ordinal C4.5, random-forest, and AdaBoost algorithms, as well as an ensemble technique composed of ordinal and non-ordinal classifiers. Firstly, we find that the inclusion of LD and extended exam-time parameters improves prediction of exam performance (compared to specifications of the algorithms that do not include these variables). Secondly, when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' together with grade (as opposed to grade only), the prediction accuracy improves. Thirdly, our subgroup analyses show clear differences in the effect of extended exam time on exam performance among different courses and different student profiles. From a methodological perspective, we find that the ordinal decision-tree based algorithms outperform their conventional, non-ordinal counterparts. Further, we demonstrate that the ensemble-based approach leverages the strengths of each type of classifier (ordinal and non-ordinal) and yields better performance than each classifier individually.

Keywords: actual exam time usage, ensemble learning, learning disabilities, ordinal classification, time extension

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Noa Nelson, Orit Appel, Rachel Ben-ari

Abstract:

Organizational Citizenship Behavior (OCB) is voluntary employee behavior that contributes to the organization beyond formal job requirements. It can take different forms, such as helping teammates (OCB toward individuals; hence, OCB-I), or staying after hours to attend a task force (OCB toward the organization; hence, OCB-O). Generally, OCB contributes substantially to organizational climate, goals, productivity, and resilience, so organizations need to understand what encourages it. This is particularly challenging in security organizations. Security work is characterized by high levels of stress and burnout, which is detrimental to OCB, and security organizational design emphasizes formal rules and clear hierarchies, leaving employees with less freedom for voluntary behavior. The current research explored the role of Perceived Procedural Justice (PPJ) in enhancing OCB in a security organization. PPJ refers to how fair decision-making processes are perceived to be. It involves the sense that decision makers are objective, attentive to everyone's interests, respectful in their communications and participatory - allowing individuals a voice in decision processes. Justice perceptions affect motivation, and it was specifically suggested that PPJ creates an attachment to one's organization and personal interest in its success. Accordingly, PPJ had been associated with OCB, but hardly any research tested their association with security organizations. The current research was conducted among prison guards in the Israel Prison Service, to test a correlational and a causal association between PPJ and OCB. It differentiated between perceptions of direct commander procedural justice (CPJ), and perceptions of organization procedural justice (OPJ), hypothesizing that CPJ would relate to OCB-I, while OPJ would relate to OCB-O. In the first study, 336 prison guards (305 male) from 10 different prisons responded to questionnaires measuring their own CPJ, OPJ, OCB-I, and OCB-O. Hierarchical linear regression analyses indicated the significance of commander procedural justice (CPJ): It associated with OCB-I and also associated with OPJ, which, in turn, associated with OCB-O. The second study tested CPJ's causal effects on prison guards' OCB-I and OCB-O; 311 prison guards (275 male) from 14 different prisons read scenarios that described either high or low CPJ, and then evaluated the likelihood of that commander's prison guards performing OCB-I and OCB-O. In this study, CPJ enhanced OCB-O directly. It also contributed to OCB-I, indirectly: CPJ enhanced the motivation for collaboration with the commander, which respondents also evaluated after reading scenarios. Collaboration, in turn, associated with OCB-I. The studies demonstrate that procedural justice, especially commander's PJ, promotes OCB in security work environments. This is important because extraordinary teamwork and motivation are needed to deal with emergency situations and with delicate security challenges. Following the studies, the Israel Prison Service implemented personal procedural justice training for commanders and unit level programs for procedurally just decision processes. From a theoretical perspective, the studies extend the knowledge on PPJ and OCB to security work environments and contribute evidence on PPJ's causal effects. They also call for further research, to understand the mechanisms through which different types of PPJ affect different types of OCB.

Keywords: organizational citizenship behavior, perceived procedural justice, prison guards, security organizations

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Authors: Renata Mekovec, Dijana Peras, Ruben Picek

Abstract:

The advent of the Internet, mobile devices and social media is revolutionizing the experience of retail customers by linking multiple sources through various channels. Omnichannel retailing is a retailing that combines multiple channels to allow customers to seamlessly leverage all the distribution information online and offline while shopping. Therefore, today data are an asset more critical than ever for all organizations. Nonetheless, because of its heterogeneity through platforms, developers are currently facing difficulties in dealing with personal data. Considering the possibilities of omnichannel communication, this paper presents channel categorization that could enhance the customer experience of omnichannel center called hyper center. The purpose of this paper is fundamentally to describe the connection between the omnichannel hyper center and the customer, with particular attention to privacy protection. The first phase was finding the most appropriate channels of communication for hyper center. Consequently, a selection of widely used communication channels has been identified and analyzed with regard to the effect requirements for optimizing user experience. The evaluation criteria are divided into 3 groups: general, user profile and channel options. For each criterion the weight of importance for omnichannel communication was defined. The most important thing was to consider how the hyper center can make user identification while respecting the privacy protection requirements. The study carried out also shows what customer experience across digital networks would look like, based on an omnichannel approach owing to privacy protection principles.

Keywords: personal data, privacy protection, omnichannel communication, retail

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Authors: Corinne Zurmuehle, Andreas Christoph Weber

Abstract:

In 2019, the Swiss Federal Institute of Sport Magglingen (SFISM) conducted a mixed-methods study on the Swiss elite sports system, which yielded a large quantity of research data. In a quantitative online survey, 1151 elite sports athletes, 542 coaches, and 102 Performance Directors of national sports federations (NF) have submitted their perceptions of the national support measures of the Swiss elite sports system. These data provide an essential database for the further development of the Swiss elite sports system. The results were published in a report presenting the results divided into 40 Olympic summer and 14 winter sports (Olympic classification). The authors of this paper assume that, in practice, this division is too unspecific to assess where further measures would be needed. The aim of this paper is to find appropriate parameters for data visualization in order to identify disparities in sports promotion that allow an assessment of where further interventions by Swiss Olympic (NF umbrella organization) are required. Method: First, the variable 'salary earned from sport' was defined as a variable to measure the impact of elite sports promotion. This variable was chosen as a measure as it represents an important indicator for the professionalization of elite athletes and therefore reflects national level sports promotion measures applied by Swiss Olympic. Afterwards, the variable salary was tested with regard to the correlation between Olympic classification [a], calculating the Eta coefficient. To estimate the appropriate parameters for data visualization, the correlation between salary and four further parameters was analyzed by calculating the Eta coefficient: [a] sport; [b] prioritization (from 1 to 5) of the sports by Swiss Olympic; [c] gender; [d] employment level in sports. Results & Discussion: The analyses reveal a very small correlation between salary and Olympic classification (ɳ² = .011, p = .005). Gender demonstrates an even small correlation (ɳ² = .006, p = .014). The parameter prioritization was correlating with small effect (ɳ² = .017, p = .001) as did employment level (ɳ² = .028, p < .001). The highest correlation was identified by the parameter sport with a moderate effect (ɳ² = .075, p = .047). The analyses show that the disparities in sports promotion cannot be determined by a particular parameter but presumably explained by a combination of several parameters. We argue that the possibility of combining parameters for data visualization should be enabled when the analysis is provided to Swiss Olympic for further strategic decision-making. However, the inclusion of multiple parameters massively multiplies the number of graphs and is therefore not suitable for practical use. Therefore, we suggest to apply interactive dashboards for data visualization using Business Intelligence Software. Practical & Theoretical Contribution: This contribution provides the first attempt to use Business Intelligence Software for strategic decision-making in national level sports regarding the prioritization of national resources for sports and athletes. This allows to set specific parameters with a significant effect as filters. By using filters, parameters can be combined and compared against each other and set individually for each strategic decision.

Keywords: data visualization, business intelligence, Swiss elite sports system, strategic decision-making

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Authors: Abadi Berhane, Walelign Worku, Berhanu Abrha, Gebre Hadgu, Tigray

Abstract:

Sesame is an important oilseed crop in Ethiopia; which is the second most exported agricultural commodity next to coffee. However, there is poor soil fertility management and a research-led farming system for the crop. The AquaCrop model was applied as a decision-support tool; which performs a semi-quantitative approach to simulate the yield of crops under different soil fertility levels. The objective of this experiment was to calibrate and validated the AquaCrop model for simulating the growth and yield of sesame under different nitrogen fertilizer levels and to test the performance of the model as a decision-support tool for improved sesame cultivation in the study area. The experiment was laid out as a randomized complete block design (RCBD) in a factorial arrangement in the 2016, 2017, and 2018 main cropping seasons. In this experiment, four nitrogen fertilizer rates; 0, 23, 46, and 69 Kg/ha nitrogen, and three improved varieties (Setit-1, Setit-2, and Humera-1). In the meantime, growth, yield, and yield components of sesame were collected from each treatment. Coefficient of determination (R2), Root mean square error (RMSE), Normalized root mean square error (N-RMSE), Model efficiency (E), and Degree of agreement (D) were used to test the performance of the model. The results indicated that the AquaCrop model successfully simulated soil water content with R2 varying from 0.92 to 0.98, RMSE 6.5 to 13.9 mm, E 0.78 to 0.94, and D 0.95 to 0.99; and the corresponding values for AB also varied from 0.92 to 0.98, 0.33 to 0.54 tons/ha, 0.74 to 0.93, and 0.9 to 0.98, respectively. The results on the canopy cover of sesame also showed that the model acceptably simulated canopy cover with R2 varying from 0.95 to 0.99, and a RMSE of 5.3 to 8.6%. The AquaCrop model was appropriately calibrated to simulate soil water content, canopy cover, aboveground biomass, and sesame yield; the results indicated that the model adequately simulated the growth and yield of sesame under the different nitrogen fertilizer levels. The AquaCrop model might be an important tool for improved soil fertility management and yield enhancement strategies of sesame. Hence, the model might be applied as a decision-support tool in soil fertility management in sesame production.

Keywords: aquacrop model, sesame, normalized water productivity, nitrogen fertilizer

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Authors: Lior Davidovitch

Abstract:

Traditional training based on static models and case studies is the backbone of most teaching and training programs of engineering education. However, project management learning is characterized by dynamics models that requires new and enhanced learning method. The results of empirical experiments evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of using cognitive simulator as a new training technique are reported. The empirical findings are focused on the impact of keeping and reviewing learning history in a dynamic and interactive simulation environment of engineering education. The cognitive simulator for engineering project management learning had two learning history keeping modes: manual (student-controlled), automatic (simulator-controlled) and a version with no history keeping. A group of industrial engineering students performed four simulation-runs divided into three identical simple scenarios and one complicated scenario. The performances of participants running the simulation with the manual history mode were significantly better than users running the simulation with the automatic history mode. Moreover, the effects of using the undo enhanced further the learning process. The findings indicate an enhancement of engineering students’ learning and decision making when they use the record functionality of the history during their engineering training process. Furthermore, the cognitive simulator as educational innovation improves students learning and training. The practical implications of using simulators in the field of engineering education are discussed.

Keywords: cognitive simulator, decision making, engineering learning, project management

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Authors: Recep Sait Arpat, Hakan Güreşci

Abstract:

Emergency, disaster and crisis management terms are generally perceived as the same processes. This conflict effects the approach and delegating policy of the political order. Crisis management starts in the aftermath of the mismanagement of disaster and emergency. In the light of the information stated above in this article Turkey and United Kingdom(UK)’s crisis management systems are analyzed. This article’s main aim is to clarify the main points of the emergency management system of United Kingdom and Turkey’s disaster management system by comparing them. To do this: A prototype model of the political decision making processes of the countries is drawn, decision making mechanisms and the planning functions are compared. As a result it’s found that emergency management policy in Turkey is reactive whereas it’s proactive in UK; as the delegating policy Turkey’s system is similar to UK; levels of emergency situations are similar but not the same; the differences are stemming from the civil order and nongovernmental organizations effectiveness; UK has a detailed government engagement model to emergencies, which shapes the doctrine of the approach to emergencies, and it’s successful in gathering and controlling the whole state’s efforts; crisis management is a sub-phase of UK emergency management whereas it’s accepted as a outmoded management perception and the focal point of crisis management perception in UK is security crisis and natural disasters while in Turkey it is natural disasters. In every anlysis proposals are given to Turkey.

Keywords: crisis management, disaster management, emergency management, turkey, united kingdom

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Rodríguez Sánchez Carla, Sancho-Esper Franco, Guillen-Davo Marina

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Tourism is one of the most important sectors worldwide since it is an important economic engine for today's society. It is also one of the sectors that most negatively affect the environment in terms of CO₂ emissions due to this expansion. In light of this, airlines are developing Voluntary Carbon Offset (VCO). There is important evidence focused on analyzing the features of these VCO programs and their efficacy in reducing CO₂ emissions, and findings are mixed without a clear consensus. Different research approaches have centered on analyzing factors and consequences of VCO programs, such as economic modelling based on panel data, survey research based on traveler responses or experimental research analyzing customer decisions in a simulated context. This study belongs to the latter group because it tries to understand how different characteristics of an online ticket purchase website affect the willingness of a traveler to choose a sustainable one. The proposed behavioral model is based on several theories, such as the nudge theory, the dual processing ELM and the cognitive dissonance theory. This randomized experiment aims at overcoming previous studies based on self-reported measures that mainly study sustainable behavioral intention rather than actual decision-making. It also complements traditional self-reported independent variables by gathering objective information from an eye-tracking device. This experiment analyzes the influence of two characteristics of the online purchase website: i) the type of information regarding flight CO₂ emissions (quantitative vs. qualitative) and the comparison framework related to the sustainable purchase decision (negative: alternative with more emissions than the average flight of the route vs. positive: alternative with less emissions than the average flight of the route), therefore it is a 2x2 experiment with four alternative scenarios. A pretest was run before the actual experiment to refine the experiment features and to check the manipulations. Afterward, a different sample of students answered the pre-test questionnaire aimed at recruiting the cases and measuring several pre-stimulus measures. One week later, students came to the neurolab at the University setting to be part of the experiment, made their decision regarding online purchases and answered the post-test survey. A final sample of 21 students was gathered. The committee of ethics of the institution approved the experiment. The results show that qualitative information generates more sustainable decisions (less contaminant alternative) than quantitative information. Moreover, evidence shows that subjects are more willing to choose the sustainable decision to be more ecological (comparison of the average with the less contaminant alternative) rather than to be less contaminant (comparison of the average with the more contaminant alternative). There are also interesting differences in the information processing variables from the eye tracker. Both the total time to make the choice and the specific times by area of interest (AOI) differ depending on the assigned scenario. These results allow for a better understanding of the factors that condition the decision of a traveler to be part of a VCO program and provide useful information for airline managers to promote these programs to reduce environmental impact.

Keywords: voluntary carbon offset, airline, online purchase, carbon emission, sustainability, randomized experiment

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Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

Abstract:

The rapid growth of data in diverse domains has created an urgent need for effective utilization of mathematical and statistical sciences in data analytics. This abstract explores the journey from theory to practice, emphasizing the importance of harnessing mathematical and statistical innovations to unlock the full potential of data analytics. Drawing on a comprehensive review of existing literature and research, this study investigates the fundamental theories and principles underpinning mathematical and statistical sciences in the context of data analytics. It delves into key mathematical concepts such as optimization, probability theory, statistical modeling, and machine learning algorithms, highlighting their significance in analyzing and extracting insights from complex datasets. Moreover, this abstract sheds light on the practical applications of mathematical and statistical sciences in real-world data analytics scenarios. Through case studies and examples, it showcases how mathematical and statistical innovations are being applied to tackle challenges in various fields such as finance, healthcare, marketing, and social sciences. These applications demonstrate the transformative power of mathematical and statistical sciences in data-driven decision-making. The abstract also emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, as it recognizes the synergy between mathematical and statistical sciences and other domains such as computer science, information technology, and domain-specific knowledge. Collaborative efforts enable the development of innovative methodologies and tools that bridge the gap between theory and practice, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of data analytics. Furthermore, ethical considerations surrounding data analytics, including privacy, bias, and fairness, are addressed within the abstract. It underscores the need for responsible and transparent practices in data analytics, and highlights the role of mathematical and statistical sciences in ensuring ethical data handling and analysis. In conclusion, this abstract highlights the journey from theory to practice in harnessing mathematical and statistical sciences in data analytics. It showcases the practical applications of these sciences, the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, and the need for ethical considerations. By bridging the gap between theory and practice, mathematical and statistical sciences contribute to unlocking the full potential of data analytics, empowering organizations and decision-makers with valuable insights for informed decision-making.

Keywords: data analytics, mathematical sciences, optimization, machine learning, interdisciplinary collaboration, practical applications

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Authors: Sandesh Achar

Abstract:

Personalized advertising holds greater potential for higher conversion rates compared to generic advertisements. However, its widespread application in the retail industry faces challenges due to complex implementation processes. These complexities impede the swift adoption of personalized advertisement on a large scale. Personalized advertisement, being a data-driven approach, necessitates consumer-related data, adding to its complexity. This paper introduces an innovative data-driven decision-making framework, D3Advert, which personalizes advertisements by analyzing personalities using a BiLSTM network. The framework utilizes the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) dataset for development. The employed BiLSTM network, specifically designed and optimized for D3Advert, classifies user personalities into one of the sixteen MBTI categories based on their social media posts. The classification accuracy is 86.42%, with precision, recall, and F1-Score values of 85.11%, 84.14%, and 83.89%, respectively. The D3Advert framework personalizes advertisements based on these personality classifications. Experimental implementation and performance analysis of D3Advert demonstrate a 40% improvement in impressions. D3Advert’s innovative and straightforward approach has the potential to transform personalized advertising and foster widespread personalized advertisement adoption in marketing.

Keywords: personalized advertisement, deep Learning, MBTI dataset, BiLSTM network, NLP.

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Authors: Tanveer Hussain, Khan Muhammad, Amin Ullah, Mi Young Lee, Sung Wook Baik

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The Big Data generated from distributed vision sensors installed on large scale in smart cities create hurdles in its efficient and beneficial exploration for browsing, retrieval, and indexing. This paper presents a three-folded framework for effective video summarization of such data and provide a compact and representative format of Big Video Data. In the first fold, the paper acquires input video data from the installed cameras and collect clues such as type and count of objects and clarity of the view from a chunk of pre-defined number of frames of each view. The decision of representative view selection for a particular interval is based on fuzzy inference system, acquiring a precise and human resembling decision, reinforced by the known clues as a part of the second fold. In the third fold, the paper forwards the selected view frames to the summary generation mechanism that is supported by a saliency-aware convolution neural network (CNN) model. The new trend of fuzzy rules for view selection followed by CNN architecture for saliency computation makes the multi-view video summarization (MVS) framework a suitable candidate for real-world practice in smart cities.

Keywords: big video data analysis, fuzzy logic, multi-view video summarization, saliency detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Fabienne Fel, Eric Griette

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Reshoring, whether concerning back-reshoring or near-reshoring, is a quite recent phenomenon. Despite the economic and political interest of this topic, academic research questioning determinants of reshoring remains rare. Our paper aims at contributing to fill this gap. In order to better understand the reasons for reshoring, we conducted a study among 280 French firms during spring 2016, three-quarters of which sourced, or source, in China. 105 firms in the sample have reshored all or part of their Chinese production or supply in recent years, and we aimed to establish a typology of the motives that drove them to this decision. We asked our respondents about the history of their Chinese supplies, their current reshoring strategies, and their motivations. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 22 and SPAD 8. Our results show that change in commercial and financial terms with China is the first motive explaining the current reshoring movement from this country (it applies to 54% of our respondents). A change in corporate strategy is the second motive (30% of our respondents); the reshoring decision follows a change in companies’ strategies (upgrading, implementation of a CSR policy, or a 'lean management' strategy). The third motive (14% of our sample) is a mere correction of the initial offshoring decision, considered as a mistake (under-estimation of hidden costs, non-quality and non-responsiveness problems). Some authors emphasize that developing a short supply chain, involving geographic proximity between design and production, gives a competitive advantage to companies wishing to offer innovative products. Admittedly 40% of our respondents indicate that this motive could have played a part in their decision to reshore, but this reason was not enough for any of them and is not an intrinsic motive leading to leaving Chinese suppliers. Having questioned our respondents about the importance given to various problems leading them to reshore, we then performed a Principal Components Analysis (PCA), associated with an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC), based on Ward criterion, so as to point out more specific motivations. Three main classes of companies should be distinguished: -The 'Cost Killers' (23% of the sample), which reshore their supplies from China only because of higher procurement costs and so as to find lower costs elsewhere. -The 'Realists' (50% of the sample), giving equal weight or importance to increasing procurement costs in China and to the quality of their supplies (to a large extend). Companies being part of this class tend to take advantage of this changing environment to change their procurement strategy, seeking suppliers offering better quality and responsiveness. - The 'Voluntarists' (26% of the sample), which choose to reshore their Chinese supplies regardless of higher Chinese costs, to obtain better quality and greater responsiveness. We emphasize that if the main driver for reshoring from China is indeed higher local costs, it is should not be regarded as an exclusive motivation; 77% of the companies in the sample, are also seeking, sometimes exclusively, more reactive suppliers, liable to quality, respect for the environment and intellectual property.

Keywords: China, procurement, reshoring, strategy, supplies

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Authors: Javad Izadi, Sahar Majioud

Abstract:

This study presents an approach of assessing the choice of performance measures of companies in the United Kingdom after the application of IFRS in 2005. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of IFRS on the choice of performance evaluation methods for UK companies. We analyse through an econometric model the relationship of the dependent variable, the firm’s performance, which is a nominal variable with the independent ones. Independent variables are split into two main groups: the first one is the group of accounting-based measures: Earning per share, return on assets and return on equities. The second one is the group of market-based measures: market value of property plant and equipment, research and development, sales growth, market to book value, leverage, segment and size of companies. Concerning the regression used, it is a multinomial logistic regression performed on a sample of 130 UK listed companies. Our finding shows after IFRS adoption, and companies give more importance to some variables such as return on equities and sales growth to assess their performance, whereas the return on assets and market to book value ratio does not have as much importance as before IFRS in evaluating the performance of companies. Also, there are some variables that have no impact on the performance measures anymore, such as earning per share. This article finding is empirically important for business in subjects related to IFRS and companies’ performance measurement.

Keywords: performance’s Measure, nominal variable, econometric model, evaluation methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Abadi Berhane, Walelign Worku, Berhanu Abrha, Gebre Hadgu

Abstract:

Sesame is an important oilseed crop in Ethiopia, which is the second most exported agricultural commodity next to coffee. However, there is poor soil fertility management and a research-led farming system for the crop. The AquaCrop model was applied as a decision-support tool, which performs a semi-quantitative approach to simulate the yield of crops under different soil fertility levels. The objective of this experiment was to calibrate and validate the AquaCrop model for simulating the growth and yield of sesame under different nitrogen fertilizer levels and to test the performance of the model as a decision-support tool for improved sesame cultivation in the study area. The experiment was laid out as a randomized complete block design (RCBD) in a factorial arrangement in the 2016, 2017, and 2018 main cropping seasons. In this experiment, four nitrogen fertilizer rates, 0, 23, 46, and 69 Kg/ha nitrogen, and three improved varieties (Setit-1, Setit-2, and Humera-1). In the meantime, growth, yield, and yield components of sesame were collected from each treatment. Coefficient of determination (R2), Root mean square error (RMSE), Normalized root mean square error (N-RMSE), Model efficiency (E), and Degree of agreement (D) were used to test the performance of the model. The results indicated that the AquaCrop model successfully simulated soil water content with R2 varying from 0.92 to 0.98, RMSE 6.5 to 13.9 mm, E 0.78 to 0.94, and D 0.95 to 0.99, and the corresponding values for AB also varied from 0.92 to 0.98, 0.33 to 0.54 tons/ha, 0.74 to 0.93, and 0.9 to 0.98, respectively. The results on the canopy cover of sesame also showed that the model acceptably simulated canopy cover with R2 varying from 0.95 to 0.99 and a RMSE of 5.3 to 8.6%. The AquaCrop model was appropriately calibrated to simulate soil water content, canopy cover, aboveground biomass, and sesame yield; the results indicated that the model adequately simulated the growth and yield of sesame under the different nitrogen fertilizer levels. The AquaCrop model might be an important tool for improved soil fertility management and yield enhancement strategies of sesame. Hence, the model might be applied as a decision-support tool in soil fertility management in sesame production.

Keywords: aquacrop model, normalized water productivity, nitrogen fertilizer, canopy cover, sesame

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Authors: Nana Benma Osei

Abstract:

Patient discharge can be a hectic process. Patients are sometimes sent to the wrong location or forgotten in lounges in the waiting room. This ends up compromising patient care because the delay in picking the patients can affect how they adhere to medication. Patients may fail to take their medication, and this will lead to negative outcomes. The situation highlights the demands of modern-day healthcare, and the use of technology can help in reducing such challenges and in enhancing the patient’s experience, leading to greater satisfaction with the care provided. The paper contains the proposed changes to a healthcare facility by introducing the clinical decision support system, which will be needed to improve coordination and communication during patient discharge. This will be done under Kurt Lewin’s Change Management Model, which recognizes the different phases in the change process. A pilot program is proposed initially before the program can be implemented in the entire organization. This allows for the identification of challenges and ways of managing them. The paper anticipates some of the possible challenges that may arise during implementation, and a multi-disciplinary approach is considered the most effective. Opposition to the change is likely to arise because staff members may lack information on how the changes will affect them and the skills they will need to learn to use the new system. Training will occur before the technology can be implemented. Every member will go for training, and adequate time is allocated for training purposes. A comparison of data will determine whether the project has succeeded.

Keywords: patient discharge, clinical decision support system, communication, collaboration

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Authors: D. Garg, S. Luthra, A. Haleem

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Due to growing concern about environmental and social consequences throughout the world, a need has been felt to incorporate sustainability concepts in conventional manufacturing. This paper is an attempt to identify and evaluate drivers in implementing sustainable manufacturing in Indian context. Nine possible drivers for successful implementation of sustainable manufacturing have been identified from extensive review. Further, Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) approach has been utilized to evaluate and categorize these identified drivers for implementing sustainable manufacturing in to the cause and effect groups. Five drivers (Societal Pressure and Public Concerns; Regulations and Government Policies; Top Management Involvement, Commitment and Support; Effective Strategies and Activities towards Socially Responsible Manufacturing and Market Trends) have been categorized into the cause group and four drivers (Holistic View in Manufacturing Systems; Supplier Participation; Building Sustainable culture in Organization; and Corporate Image and Benefits) have been categorized into the effect group. “Societal Pressure and Public Concerns” has been found the most critical driver and “Corporate Image and Benefits” as least critical or the most easily influenced driver to implementing sustainable manufacturing in Indian context. This paper may surely help practitioners in better understanding of these drivers and their priorities towards effective implementation of sustainable manufacturing.

Keywords: drivers, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), India, sustainable manufacturing

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

Abstract:

In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Anishur Rahman, Maria Areias, Diogo Simões, Ana Figeuiredo, Filipa Figueiredo, João Nunes

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The circular economy (CE) has gained increased awareness among academics, businesses, and decision-makers as it stimulates resource circularity in the production and consumption systems. A large epistemological study has explored the principles of CE, but scant attention eagerly focused on analysing how CE is evaluated, consented to, and enforced using economic metabolism data and business intelligent framework. Economic metabolism involves the ongoing exchange of materials and energy within and across socio-economic systems and requires the assessment of vast amounts of data to provide quantitative analysis related to effective resource management. Limited concern, the present work has focused on the regional flows pilot region from Portugal. By addressing this gap, this study aims to promote eco-innovation and sustainability in the regions of Intermunicipal Communities Região de Coimbra, Viseu Dão Lafões and Beiras e Serra da Estrela, using this data to find precise synergies in terms of material flows and give companies a competitive advantage in form of valuable waste destinations, access to new resources and new markets, cost reduction and risk sharing benefits. In our work, emphasis on applying artificial intelligence (AI) and, more specifically, on implementing state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms is placed, contributing to construction a business intelligent approach. With the emergence of new approaches generally highlighted under the sub-heading of AI and machine learning (ML), the methods for statistical analysis of complex and uncertain production systems are facing significant changes. Therefore, various definitions of AI and its differences from traditional statistics are presented, and furthermore, ML is introduced to identify its place in data science and the differences in topics such as big data analytics and in production problems that using AI and ML are identified. A lifecycle-based approach is then taken to analyse the use of different methods in each phase to identify the most useful technologies and unifying attributes of AI in manufacturing. Most of macroeconomic metabolisms models are mainly direct to contexts of large metropolis, neglecting rural territories, so within this project, a dynamic decision support model coupled with artificial intelligence tools and information platforms will be developed, focused on the reality of these transition zones between the rural and urban. Thus, a real decision support tool is under development, which will surpass the scientific developments carried out to date and will allow to overcome imitations related to the availability and reliability of data.

Keywords: circular economy, artificial intelligence, economic metabolisms, machine learning

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Authors: Szu-Kai Hsu, Po-Ching Lin

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As more and more multi-core processors emerge, traditional sequential programming paradigm no longer suffice. Yet only few modern dynamic programming languages can leverage such advantage. Ruby, for example, despite its wide adoption, only includes threads as a simple parallel primitive. The global virtual machine lock of official Ruby runtime makes it impossible to exploit full parallelism. Though various alternative Ruby implementations do eliminate the global virtual machine lock, they only provide developers dated locking mechanism for data synchronization. However, traditional locking mechanism error-prone by nature. Software Transactional Memory is one of the promising alternatives among others. This paper introduces a new virtual machine: GobiesVM to provide a native software transactional memory based solution for dynamic programming languages to exploit parallelism. We also proposed a simplified variation of Transactional Locking II algorithm. The empirical results of our experiments show that support of STM at virtual machine level enables developers to write straightforward code without compromising parallelism or sacrificing thread safety. Existing source code only requires minimal or even none modi cation, which allows developers to easily switch their legacy codebase to a parallel environment. The performance evaluations of GobiesVM also indicate the difference between sequential and parallel execution is significant.

Keywords: global interpreter lock, ruby, software transactional memory, virtual machine

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Authors: Rodolfo Lorbieski, Silvia Modesto Nassar

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Many supervised machine learning tasks require decision making across numerous different classes. Multi-class classification has several applications, such as face recognition, text recognition and medical diagnostics. The objective of this article is to analyze an adapted method of Stacking in multi-class problems, which combines ensembles within the ensemble itself. For this purpose, a training similar to Stacking was used, but with three levels, where the final decision-maker (level 2) performs its training by combining outputs from the tree-based pair of meta-classifiers (level 1) from Bayesian families. These are in turn trained by pairs of base classifiers (level 0) of the same family. This strategy seeks to promote diversity among the ensembles forming the meta-classifier level 2. Three performance measures were used: (1) accuracy, (2) area under the ROC curve, and (3) time for three factors: (a) datasets, (b) experiments and (c) levels. To compare the factors, ANOVA three-way test was executed for each performance measure, considering 5 datasets by 25 experiments by 3 levels. A triple interaction between factors was observed only in time. The accuracy and area under the ROC curve presented similar results, showing a double interaction between level and experiment, as well as for the dataset factor. It was concluded that level 2 had an average performance above the other levels and that the proposed method is especially efficient for multi-class problems when compared to binary problems.

Keywords: stacking, multi-layers, ensemble, multi-class

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: Evgeni Baratashvili, Giorgi Sulashvili, Malkhaz Sulashvili, Bela Khotenashvili, Irma Makharashvili

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The most investment decision-making principle of regional travel firm's management and its partner is the formulation of the aims of investment programs. The investments can be targeted in order to reduce the firm's production costs and to purchase good transport equipment. In attractive region, in order to develop firm’s activities, the investment program can be targeted for increasing of provided services. That is the case where the sales already have been used in the market. The investment can be directed to establish the affiliate firms, branches, to construct new hotels, to create food and trade enterprises, to develop entertainment enterprises, etc. Economic development is of great importance to regional development. International experience shows that inclusive economic growth largely depends on not only the national, but also regional development planning and implementation of a strong and competitive regions. Regional development is considered as the key factor in achieving national success. Establishing a modern institute separate entities if the pilot centers will constitute a promotion, international best practice-based public-private partnership to encourage the use of models. Regional policy directions and strategies adopted in accordance with the successful implementation of major importance in the near future specific action plans for inclusive development and implementation, which will be provided in accordance with the effective monitoring and evaluation tools and measurable indicators combined. All of these above-mentioned investments are characterized by different levels, which are related to the following fact: How successful tourism marketing service is, whether it is able to determine the proper market's reaction according to the particular firm's actions. In the sphere of regional tourism industry and in the investment decision possible variants it can be developed the some specter of models. Each of the models can be modified and specified according to the situation, and characteristic skills of the existing problem that must be solved. Besides, while choosing the proper model, the process is affected by the regulation system of economic processes. Also, it is influenced by liberalization quality and by the level of state participation.

Keywords: net income of travel firm, economic growth, Investment profitability, regional development, tourist product, tourism development

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Authors: Muhtasim Shafi Kader, Fizar Ahmed, Annesha Acharjee

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Machine learning and data mining are crucial in health care, as well as medical information and detection. Machine learning approaches are now being utilized to improve awareness of a variety of critical health issues, including diabetes detection, neuron cell tumor diagnosis, COVID 19 identification, and so on. Parkinson’s disease is basically a disease for our senior citizens in Bangladesh. Parkinson's Disease indications often seem progressive and get worst with time. People got affected trouble walking and communicating with the condition advances. Patients can also have psychological and social vagaries, nap problems, hopelessness, reminiscence loss, and weariness. Parkinson's disease can happen in both men and women. Though men are affected by the illness at a proportion that is around partial of them are women. In this research, we have to get out the accurate ML algorithm to find out the disease with a predictable dataset and the model of the following machine learning classifiers. Therefore, nine ML classifiers are secondhand to portion study to use machine learning approaches like as follows, Naive Bayes, Adaptive Boosting, Bagging Classifier, Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest classifier, XBG Classifier, K Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Support Vector Machine Classifier, and Gradient Boosting Classifier are used.

Keywords: naive bayes, adaptive boosting, bagging classifier, decision tree classifier, random forest classifier, XBG classifier, k nearest neighbor classifier, support vector classifier, gradient boosting classifier

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Authors: Nesli Aydin

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Waste management decision making in developing countries has moved towards being more pragmatic, transparent, sustainable and comprehensive. Turkey is required to make its waste related legislation compatible with European Legislation as it is a candidate country of the European Union. Improper Turkish practices such as open burning and open dumping practices must be abandoned urgently, and robust waste management systems have to be structured. The determination of an optimum waste management system in any region requires a comprehensive analysis in which many criteria are taken into account by stakeholders. In conducting this sort of analysis, there are two main criteria which are evaluated by waste management analysts; economic viability and environmentally friendliness. From an analytical point of view, a central characteristic of sustainable development is an economic-ecological integration. It is predicted that building a robust waste management system will need significant effort and cooperation between the stakeholders in developing countries such as Turkey. In this regard, this study aims to provide data regarding the cost and environmental burdens of waste treatment technologies such as an incinerator, an autoclave (with different capacities), a hydroclave and a microwave coupled with updated information on calculation methods, and a framework for comparing any proposed scenario performances on a cost and environmental basis.

Keywords: decision making, economic viability, environmentally friendliness, waste management systems

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Authors: Jonathan Sohn

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Deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown state-of-the-art performance for many applications, including computer vision, natural language processing, and speech recognition. Recently, adversarial attacks have been studied in the context of deep neural networks, which aim to alter the results of deep neural networks by modifying the inputs slightly. For example, an adversarial attack on a DNN used for object detection can cause the DNN to miss certain objects. As a result, the reliability of DNNs is undermined by their lack of robustness against adversarial attacks, raising concerns about their use in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. In this paper, we focus on studying the adversarial attacks and defenses on DNNs for image classification. There are two types of adversarial attacks studied which are fast gradient sign method (FGSM) attack and projected gradient descent (PGD) attack. A DNN forms decision boundaries that separate the input images into different categories. The adversarial attack slightly alters the image to move over the decision boundary, causing the DNN to misclassify the image. FGSM attack obtains the gradient with respect to the image and updates the image once based on the gradients to cross the decision boundary. PGD attack, instead of taking one big step, repeatedly modifies the input image with multiple small steps. There is also another type of attack called the target attack. This adversarial attack is designed to make the machine classify an image to a class chosen by the attacker. We can defend against adversarial attacks by incorporating adversarial examples in training. Specifically, instead of training the neural network with clean examples, we can explicitly let the neural network learn from the adversarial examples. In our experiments, the digit recognition accuracy on the MNIST dataset drops from 97.81% to 39.50% and 34.01% when the DNN is attacked by FGSM and PGD attacks, respectively. If we utilize FGSM training as a defense method, the classification accuracy greatly improves from 39.50% to 92.31% for FGSM attacks and from 34.01% to 75.63% for PGD attacks. To further improve the classification accuracy under adversarial attacks, we can also use a stronger PGD training method. PGD training improves the accuracy by 2.7% under FGSM attacks and 18.4% under PGD attacks over FGSM training. It is worth mentioning that both FGSM and PGD training do not affect the accuracy of clean images. In summary, we find that PGD attacks can greatly degrade the performance of DNNs, and PGD training is a very effective way to defend against such attacks. PGD attacks and defence are overall significantly more effective than FGSM methods.

Keywords: deep neural network, adversarial attack, adversarial defense, adversarial machine learning

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Authors: Allaw Kamel, Bazzi Hasan

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Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is among the most significant sources which threaten the global environmental health. Solid Waste Management has been an important environmental problem in developing countries because of the difficulties in finding sustainable solutions for solid wastes. Therefore, more efforts are needed to be implemented to overcome this problem. Lebanon has suffered a severe solid waste management problem in 2015, and a new landfill site was proposed to solve the existing problem. The study aims to identify and locate the most suitable area to construct a landfill taking into consideration the sustainable development to overcome the present situation and protect the future demands. Throughout the article, a landfill site selection methodology was discussed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Several environmental, economic and social factors were taken as criterion for selection of a landfill. Soil, geology, and LUC (Land Use and Land Cover) indices with the Sustainable Development Index were main inputs to create the final map of Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) for landfill site. Different factors were determined to define each index. Input data of each factor was managed, visualized and analyzed using GIS. GIS was used as an important tool to identify suitable areas for landfill. Spatial Analysis (SA), Analysis and Management GIS tools were implemented to produce input maps capable of identifying suitable areas related to each index. Weight has been assigned to each factor in the same index, and the main weights were assigned to each index used. The combination of the different indices map generates the final output map of ESA. The output map was reclassified into three suitability classes of low, moderate, and high suitability. Results showed different locations suitable for the construction of a landfill. Results also reflected the importance of GIS and MCDA in helping decision makers finding a solution of solid wastes by a sanitary landfill.

Keywords: sustainable development, landfill, municipal solid waste (MSW), geographic information system (GIS), multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA), environmentally sensitive area (ESA)

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

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This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER

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Authors: Saidu I. R., Shittu S. S.

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As the trend of personal devices accessing corporate data continues to rise through Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) practices, organizations recognize the potential cost reduction and productivity gains. However, the associated security risks pose a significant threat to these benefits. Often, organizations adopt BYOD environments without fully considering the vulnerabilities introduced by human factors in this context. This study presents an enhanced assessment model that evaluates the security posture of employees in BYOD environments using cyber hygiene principles. The framework assesses users' adherence to best practices and guidelines for maintaining a secure computing environment, employing scales and the Euclidean distance formula. By utilizing this algorithm, the study measures the distance between users' security practices and the organization's optimal security policies. To facilitate user evaluation, a simple and intuitive interface for automated assessment is developed. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, design science research methods are employed, and empirical assessments are conducted using five artifacts to analyze user suitability in BYOD environments. By addressing the human factor vulnerabilities through the assessment of cyber hygiene practices, this study aims to enhance the overall security of BYOD environments and enable organizations to leverage the advantages of this evolving trend while mitigating potential risks.

Keywords: security, BYOD, vulnerability, risk, cyber hygiene

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Authors: Elmahdi Khalil, Saad Enniari, Mostapha Zbakh

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Cloud computing promises to increase innovation and the velocity with witch applications are deployed, all while helping any enterprise meet most IT service needs at a lower total cost of ownership and higher return investment. As the march of cloud continues, it brings both new opportunities and new security challenges. To take advantages of those opportunities while minimizing risks, we think that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) integrated in the cloud is one of the best existing solutions nowadays in the field. The concept of intrusion detection was known since past and was first proposed by a well-known researcher named Anderson in 1980's. Since that time IDS's are evolving. Although, several efforts has been made in the area of Intrusion Detection systems for cloud computing environment, many attacks still prevail. Therefore, the work presented in this paper proposes a multi criteria analysis and a comparative study between several IDS architectures designated to work in a cloud computing environments. To achieve this objective, in the first place we will search in the state of the art of several consistent IDS architectures designed to work in a cloud environment. Whereas, in a second step we will establish the criteria that will be useful for the evaluation of architectures. Later, using the approach of multi criteria decision analysis Mac Beth (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique we will evaluate the criteria and assign to each one the appropriate weight according to their importance in the field of IDS architectures in cloud computing. The last step is to evaluate architectures against the criteria and collecting results of the model constructed in the previous steps.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud security, intrusion detection/prevention system, multi-criteria decision analysis

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Authors: Amir Reza Talaghat

Abstract:

Since 2015, a new approach and policy regarding energy resources protection and using renewable energies has been started in Iran which was developing new projects. Investigating about the feasibility study of these new projects helped to figure out five steps to prepare an executive feasibility study of the concerned projects, which are proper site selections, authorizations, design and simulation, economic study and programming, respectively. The results were interesting and essential for decision makers and investors to start implementing of these projects in reliable condition. The research is obtained through collection and study of the project's documents as well as recalculation to review conformity of the results with GIS data and the technical information of the bidders. In this paper, it is attempted to describe the result of the performed research by describing the five steps as an executive methodology, for preparing a feasible study of installing a 10 MW – solar farm project. The corresponding results of the research also help decision makers to start similar projects is explained in this paper as follows: selecting the best location for the concerned PV plant, reliable and safe conditions for investment and the required authorizations to start implementing the solar farm project in the concerned region, selecting suitable component to achieve the best possible performance for the plant, economic profit of the investment, proper programming to implement the project on time.

Keywords: solar farm, solar energy, execution of PV power plant PV power plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 156