Search results for: Gaussian mixture model

Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: water inflow, tunnel, discontinues rock, numerical simulation

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Authors: Normah Sulaiman, Yong Zhi Kang, Nor Hayati Hussain, Abdul Rehman Khalid

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Segara Ninda owned by Din Ku Meh, the governor of the province Satul, a Malay man with a big role liaising with Thailand. This mansion is part of the legacy he left behind among other properties in George Town, Penang, besides his family. The island’s geographical location is strategic which has benefitted it through important trade routes for Europe, Middle, East, India, and China in the past. Due to this reasoning, various architectural styles were introduced in Penang; Late Straits Eclectic style is one of the forms of the Colonial Architectural style widely spread as vernacular shophouses in George Town. Segara Ninda is located among the mixture of nouveau-riche, historical and heritage sites at the most important street; Penang Road, which dated back to the late 18th century. This paper examines the strait eclectic style that Segara Ninda encompasses. Acknowledging the mixture of colonial architecture in Georgetown, we argue that the mansion faces challenging issues in conservation processes to be vindicated. This is reflected by analysing the spatial layout, visual elements quality, and its activity through interviews with the occupants of the mansion. The focus will be on the understanding of building form, features, and functions; respecting the architectural spaces and their activity. The methodology applied is to promote our understanding of the mix of culture that the mansion holds through documentation, observation and measuring exercises. This offers a positional interpretation of the mix of culture that the mansion holds. This conservation effort will further contribute exposure to the public and recognize it in the society as its essence is a deficiency character to the existing built environment.

Keywords: eclectic, heritage, spatial organization, culture

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Authors: Isam A. H. Al Zubaidy

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A quick process may be needed to get the benefit the big generated quantity of waste oil sludge (WOS). The process includes the mixing process of WOS with commercial diesel fuel. Different ratios of WOS to diesel fuel were prepared ranging 1:1 to 20:1 by mass. The mixture was continuously mixing for 10 minutes using bench type overhead stirrer and followed by filtration process to separate the soil waste from filtrate oil product. The quantity and the physical properties of the oil filtrate were measured. It was found that the addition of up to 15% WOS to diesel fuel was accepted without dramatic changes to the properties of diesel fuel. The amount of waste oil sludge was decreased by about 60% by mass. This means that about 60 % of the mass of sludge was recovered as light fuel oil. The physical properties of the resulting fuel from 10% sludge mixing ratio showed that the specific gravity, ash content, carbon residue, asphaltene content, viscosity, diesel index, cetane number, and calorific value were affected slightly. The color was changed to light black color. The sulfur content was increased also. This requires other processes to reduce the sulfur content of the resulting light fuel. A new desulfurization process was achieved using adsorption techniques with activated biomaterial to reduce the sulfur content to acceptable limits. Adsorption process by ZnCl₂ activated date palm kernel powder was effective for improvement of the physical properties of diesel like fuel. The final sulfur content was increased to 0.185 wt%. This diesel like fuel can be used in all tractors, buses, tracks inside and outside the refineries. The solid remaining seems to be smooth and can be mixed with asphalt mixture for asphalting the roads or can be used with other materials as an asphalt coating material for constructed buildings. Through this process, valuable fuel has been recovered, and the amount of waste material had decreased.

Keywords: oil sludge, diesel fuel, blending process, filtration process

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Authors: Zineddine Bouyahiaoui, Rabah Haoui

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The aim of this work is to analyze a flow around the axisymmetric blunt body taken into account the chemical and vibrational nonequilibrium flow. This work concerns the entry of spacecraft in the atmosphere of the planet Mars. Since the equations involved are non-linear partial derivatives, the volume method is the only way to solve this problem. The choice of the mesh and the CFL is a condition for the convergence to have the stationary solution.

Keywords: blunt body, finite volume, hypersonic flow, viscous flow

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Authors: Meriem Mossaddek, El Mehdi Laadissi, El Mehdi Loualid, Chouaib Ennawaoui, Sohaib Bouzaid, Abdelowahed Hajjaji

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An electrochemical system is a subset of mechatronic systems that includes a wide variety of batteries and nickel-cadmium, lead-acid batteries, and lithium-ion. Those structures have several non-linear behaviors and uncertainties in their running range. This paper studies an effective technique for modeling Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries using a Nonlinear Auto-Regressive model with exogenous input (NARX). The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained to employ the data collected from the battery testing process. The proposed model is implemented on a Li-Ion battery cell. Simulation of this model in MATLAB shows good accuracy of the proposed model.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, neural network, energy storage, battery model, nonlinear models

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Authors: Muteeb Ulhaq, Rizwan Latif, Sayed Adnan Qasim, Imran Shafi

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Diesel engines are most efficient and reliable in terms of efficiency, reliability and adaptability. Most of the research and development up till now have been directed towards High-Speed Diesel Engine, for Commercial use. In these engines objective is to optimize maximum acceleration by reducing exhaust emission to meet international standards. In high torque low-speed engines the requirement is altogether different. These types of Engines are mostly used in Maritime Industry, Agriculture industry, Static Engines Compressors Engines etc. Unfortunately due to lack of research and development, these engines have low efficiency and high soot emissions and one of the most effective way to overcome these issues is by efficient combustion in an engine cylinder, the fuel spray atomization process plays a vital role in defining mixture formation, fuel consumption, combustion efficiency and soot emissions. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the fuel spray characteristics and atomization process is of a great importance. In this research, we will examine the effects of primary breakup modeling on the spray characteristics under diesel engine conditions. KH-ACT model is applied to cater the effect of aerodynamics in an engine cylinder and also cavitations and turbulence generated inside the injector. It is a modified form of most commonly used KH model, which considers only the aerodynamically induced breakup based on the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability. Our model is extensively evaluated by performing 3-D time-dependent simulations on Open FOAM, which is an open source flow solver. Spray characteristics like Spray Penetration, Liquid length, Spray cone angle and Souter mean diameter (SMD) were validated by comparing the results of Open Foam and Matlab. Including the effects of cavitation and turbulence enhances primary breakup, leading to smaller droplet sizes, decrease in liquid penetration, and increase in the radial dispersion of spray. All these properties favor early evaporation of fuel which enhances Engine efficiency.

Keywords: Kelvin–Helmholtz instability, open foam, primary breakup, souter mean diameter, turbulence

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Authors: Mozhgan Bahadory, Gholam-Hossein Rostami

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Over the next quarter of a century, the US government and the private sector will spend billions of dollars annually to clean the contaminated sites from pollution such as petroleum products, heavy metals, and solvents organic compounds. During the past three decades, almost 750,000 sites that require remediation have been reported to the United States federal and state agencies. Out of these contamination sites, approximately 300,000 are still in need of remediation. In these sites, the most widespread forms of contamination are petroleum products and heavy metals. At least half of US Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, Superfund sites, and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) sites have been reported to contain heavy metals. Heavy metals most often found in the contaminated water are lead, mercury, chromium, cadmium, arsenic, and zinc. This investigation emphasizes the elimination of arsenic and cadmium from aqueous solution. During the past several years, we developed a novel material called Alkali-Activated fly ash Material Permeable Reactive Barrier (AAM-PRB), which includes fly ash, fine aggregates, coarse aggregates, activating chemicals, and water. AAM can be produced with high permeability, 10-1 cm/s, then crushed into pelletized form. Laboratory experiments showed that water containing 10 ppm, 100 ppm, and 1000 ppm of arsenic and cadmium ion passing through AAM-PRB reduced to less than 0.1 ppm. However, water containing 10,000 ppm arsenic ion passing through AAM- PRB shows that the breakthrough was achieved. The removal of the mixture of arsenic and cadmium from aqueous solutions was also tested by using AAM-PRB. The results indicate that the efficiency of AAM-PRB for simultaneous removal of arsenic and cadmium from 10 ppm, 100 ppm, and 1,000 ppm were marginally below that of arsenic alone. Still, it was significantly lower for cadmium from the aqueous solution. The basic science behind removing heavy metal and microstructural investigation AAM-PRB will be the focus of our future work.

Keywords: arsenic, cadmium, contaminated water, fly ash, permeability, reactive barrier

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Authors: Asaiel Alohaly

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A theoretical framework for corporate governance is needed to bridge the gap between the corporate governance of private companies and State-owned Enterprises (SOEs). The two dominant models, being shareholder and stakeholder, do not always address the specific requirements and challenges posed by ‘hybrid’ companies; namely, previously national bodies that have been privatised bffu t where the government retains significant control or holds a majority of shareholders. Thus, an exploratory theoretical study is needed to identify how ‘hybrid’ companies should be defined and why the state model should be acknowledged since it is the less conspicuous model in comparison with the shareholder and stakeholder models. This research focuses on ‘the state model of corporate governance to understand the complex ownership, control pattern, goals, and corporate governance of these hybrid companies. The significance of this research lies in the fact that there is a limited available publication on the state model. The outcomes of this research are as follows. It became evident that the state model exists in the ecosystem. However, corporate governance theories have not extensively covered this model. Though, there is a lot being said about it by OECD and the World Bank. In response to this gap between theories and industry practice, this research argues for the state model, which proceeds from an understanding of the institutionally embedded character of hybrid companies where the government is either a majority of the total shares or a controlling shareholder.

Keywords: corporate governance, control, shareholders, state model

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Authors: Carlos Tapia Cortez, Serkan Saydam, Jeff Coulton, Claude Sammut

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Strategic mineral commodities (SMC) both energetic and metals have long been fundamental for human beings. There is a strong and long-run relation between the mineral resources industry and society's evolution, with the provision of primary raw materials, becoming one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. Due to mineral resources’ relevance for the entire economy and society, an understanding of the SMC market behaviour to simulate price fluctuations has become crucial for governments and firms. For any human activity, SMC price fluctuations are affected by economic, geopolitical, environmental, technological and psychological issues, where cognition has a major role. Cognition is defined as the capacity to store information in memory, processing and decision making for problem-solving or human adaptation. Thus, it has a significant role in those systems that exhibit dynamic equilibrium through time, such as economic growth. Cognition allows not only understanding past behaviours and trends in SCM markets but also supports future expectations of demand/supply levels and prices, although speculations are unavoidable. Technological developments may also be defined as a cognitive system. Since the Industrial Revolution, technological developments have had a significant influence on SMC production costs and prices, likewise allowing co-integration between commodities and market locations. It suggests a close relation between structural breaks, technology and prices evolution. SCM prices forecasting have been commonly addressed by econometrics and Gaussian-probabilistic models. Econometrics models may incorporate the relationship between variables; however, they are statics that leads to an incomplete approach of prices evolution through time. Gaussian-probabilistic models may evolve through time; however, price fluctuations are addressed by the assumption of random behaviour and normal distribution which seems to be far from the real behaviour of both market and prices. Random fluctuation ignores the evolution of market events and the technical and temporal relation between variables, giving the illusion of controlled future events. Normal distribution underestimates price fluctuations by using restricted ranges, curtailing decisions making into a pre-established space. A proper understanding of SMC's price dynamics taking into account the historical-cognitive relation between economic, technological and psychological factors over time is fundamental in attempting to simulate prices. The aim of this paper is to discuss the SMC market cognition hypothesis and empirically demonstrate its dynamic-cognitive capacity. Three of the largest and traded SMC's: oil, copper and gold, will be assessed to examine the economic, technological and psychological cognition respectively.

Keywords: commodity price simulation, commodity price uncertainties, dynamic-cognition, dynamic systems

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Authors: Zengda Li

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The tectonic evolution of the Beishan orogen, which forms part of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, remains debated. This study reports the identification of three Triassic granitic plutons representing two distinct stages of magmatism in southern Beishan orogen. Zircon U–Pb dating constrains the early stage as 238–237 Ma and the late stage as 229–227 Ma. The granitoids belong to high-K calc-alkaline and shoshonitic series and exhibit alkalic-calcic and calc-alkalic features, and are weakly peraluminous rocks. Most of these granitoids are highly fractionated I-type and A-type granites. They have relatively high Isr values (0.7049–0.7086) and weak negative εNd(t) values of −1.5 to −2.1, with young Nd model ages of 1.04–0.91 Ga, indicating a crustal contribution. They also show markedly positive zircon εHf(t) values (+3.4 to +11.8) and two-stage Hf model ages of 1.06–0.69 Ga, indicating a mixture of mantle and crustal components. The lithospheric mantle beneath this region incorporating older subducted materials was metasomatized by fluids or melts. Partial melting of the metasomatized lithospheric mantle resulted in underplated magmas, which provided the heat and material input to generate the granitoids. The Middle Triassic granitic plutons show moderate negative Eu anomalies, enrichment of LILEs and depletion in Nb, Ta, and Ti suggesting partial melting of crustal components in response to the underplated mantle-derived magmas, probably linked to lithospheric delamination and asthenospheric upwelling. The Late Triassic granitic plutons show characteristics of post-orogenic granite with strong negative anomalies of Eu, Ba, Nb, Sr, P, and Ti, indicating fractional crystallization and crustal contamination during the emplacement process.

Keywords: Triassic, magmatism, geochronology, petrogenesis, Beishan orogen

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Authors: Bin Wang, Hengyu Ji, Zhifeng Ye

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Fuel Metering Unit (FMU) in fuel system of an aeroengine sometimes has direct influence on the engine performance, which is neglected for the sake of easy access to mathematical model of the engine in most cases. In order to verify the influence of FMU on an engine model, this paper presents a co-simulation of a stepping motor driven FMU (digital FMU) in a turboshaft aeroengine, using AMESim and MATLAB to obtain the steady and dynamic characteristics of the FMU. For this method, mechanical and hydraulic section of the unit is modeled through AMESim, while the stepping motor is mathematically modeled through MATLAB/Simulink. Combining these two sub-models yields an AMESim/MATLAB co-model of the FMU. A simplified component level model for the turboshaft engine is established and connected with the FMU model. Simulation results on the full model show that the engine model considering FMU characteristics describes the engine more precisely especially in its transition state. An FMU dynamics will cut down the rotation speed of the high pressure shaft and the inlet pressure of the combustor during the step response. The work in this paper reveals the impact of FMU on engine operation characteristics and provides a reference to an engine model for ground tests.

Keywords: fuel metering unit, stepping motor, AMESim/Matlab, full digital simulation

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Authors: Ambrish Singh

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The corrosion inhibition performance of pyran (AP) and benzimidazole (BI) derivatives on J55 steel in 3.5% NaCl solution saturated with CO₂ was investigated by electrochemical, weight loss, surface characterization, and theoretical studies. The electrochemical studies included electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), potentiodynamic polarization (PDP), electrochemical frequency modulation (EFM), and electrochemical frequency modulation trend (EFMT). Surface characterization was done using contact angle, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and atomic force microscopy (AFM) techniques. DFT and molecular dynamics (MD) studies were done using Gaussian and Materials Studio softwares. All the studies suggested the good inhibition by the synthesized inhibitors on J55 steel in 3.5% NaCl solution saturated with CO₂ due to the formation of a protective film on the surface. Molecular dynamic simulation was applied to search for the most stable configuration and adsorption energies for the interaction of the inhibitors with Fe (110) surface.

Keywords: corrosion, inhibitor, EFM, AFM, DFT, MD

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

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Authors: Gerald Amatre, Julius Bunny Lejju, Morgan Andama

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Despite several interventions, jigger flea infestations continue to be reported in the Busoga sub-region in Eastern Uganda. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that expose the indigenous people to jigger flea infestations and evaluate the effectiveness of any indigenous materials used in flea control by the affected communities. Flea compositions in residences were described, factors associated with flea infestation and indigenous materials used in flea control were evaluated. Field surveys were conducted in the affected communities after obtaining preliminary information on jigger infestation from the offices of the District Health Inspectors to identify the affected villages and households. Informed consent was then sought from the local authorities and household heads to conduct the study. Focus group discussions were conducted with key district informants, namely, the District Health Inspectors, District Entomologists and representatives from the District Health Office. A GPS coordinate was taken at central point at every household enrolled. Fleas were trapped inside residences using Kilonzo traps. A Kilonzo Trap comprised a shallow pan, about three centimetres deep, filled to the brim with water. The edges of the pan were smeared with Vaseline to prevent fleas from crawling out. Traps were placed in the evening and checked every morning the following day. The trapped fleas were collected in labelled vials filled with 70% aqueous ethanol and taken to the laboratory for identification. Socio-economic and environmental data were collected. The results indicate that the commonest flea trapped in the residences was the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) (50%), followed by Jigger flea (Tunga penetrans) (46%) and rat flea (Xenopsylla Cheopis) (4%), respectively. The average size of residences was seven squire metres with a mean of six occupants. The residences were generally untidy; with loose dusty floors and the brick walls were not plastered. The majority of the jigger affected households were headed by peasants (86.7%) and artisans (13.3%). The household heads mainly stopped at primary school level (80%) and few at secondary school level (20%). The jigger affected households were mainly headed by peasants of low socioeconomic status. The affected community members use soil-cow dung-ash mixture to smear floors of residences as the only measure to control fleas. This method was found to be ineffective in controlling the insects. The study recommends that home improvement campaigns be continued in the affected communities to improve sanitation and hygiene in residences as one of the interventions to combat flea infestations. Other cheap, available and effective means should be identified to curb jigger flea infestations.

Keywords: cow dung-soil-ash mixture, infestations, jigger flea, Tunga penetrans

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Authors: Zongjie Wang, Zhizhong Guo

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While the regular optimal power flow model focuses on a single time scan, the optimization of power systems is typically intended for a time duration with respect to a desired objective function. In this paper, a temporal optimal power flow model for a time period is proposed. To reduce the computation burden needed for calculating temporal optimal power flow, a characteristic optimal power flow model is proposed, which employs different characteristic load patterns to represent the objective function and security constraints. A numerical method based on the interior point method is also proposed for solving the characteristic optimal power flow model. Both the temporal optimal power flow model and characteristic optimal power flow model can improve the systems’ desired objective function for the entire time period. Numerical studies are conducted on the IEEE 14 and 118-bus test systems to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characteristic optimal power flow model.

Keywords: optimal power flow, time period, security, economy

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Authors: Vilma Sasyte, Vilma Viliene, Asta Raceviciute-Stupeliene, Agila Dauksiene, Romas Gruzauskas, Virginijus Slausgalvis, Jamal Al-Saifi

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The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of butyrate, acids, medium-chain fatty acids and plant extract mixture on performance, blood and gastrointestinal tract characteristics of laying hens’. For the period of 8 weeks, 24 Hisex Brown laying hens were randomly assigned to 2 dietary treatments: 1) control wheat-corn-soybean meal based diet (Control group), 2) control diet supplemented with the mixture of butyrate, acids, medium chain fatty acids and plant extract (Lumance®) at the level of 1.5 g/kg of feed (Experimental group). Hens were fed with a crumbled diet at 125 g per day. Housing and feeding conditions were the same for all groups and met the requirements of growth for laying hens of Hisex Brown strain. In the blood serum total protein, bilirubin, cholesterol, DTL- and MTL- cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, GGT, GOT, GPT, alkaline phosphatase, alpha amylase, contents of c-reactive protein, uric acid, and lipase were analyzed. Development of intestines and internal organs (intestinal length, intestinal weight, the weight of glandular and muscular stomach, pancreas, heart, and liver) were determined. The concentration of short chain fatty acids in caecal content was measured using the method of HPLC. The results of the present study showed that 1.5 g/kg supplementation of feed additive affected egg production and feed conversion ratio for the production of 1 kg of egg mass. Dietary supplementation of analyzed additive in the diets increased the concentration of triglycerides, GOT, alkaline phosphatase and decreased uric acid content compared with the control group (P<0.05). No significant difference for others blood indices in comparison to the control was observed. The addition of feed additives in laying hens’ diets increased intestinal weight by 11% and liver weight by 14% compared with the control group (P<0.05). The short chain fatty acids (propionic, acetic and butyric acids) in the caecum of laying hens in experimental groups decreased compared with the control group. The supplementation of the mixture of butyrate, acids, medium-chain fatty acids and plant extract at the level of 1.5 g/kg in the laying hens’ diets had the effect on the performance, some gastrointestinal tract function and blood parameters of laying hens.

Keywords: acids, butyrate, laying hens, MCFA, performance, plant extract, psysiological state

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Authors: Li Donghong, Peng Fuyang, Yang Guanghua, Su Xiaoyan

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Using open source code is a popular method of software development. How to evaluate the quality of software becomes more important. This paper introduces an evaluation model. The model evaluates the quality from four dimensions: technology, production, management, and development. Each dimension includes many indicators. The weight of indicator can be modified according to the purpose of evaluation. The paper also introduces a method of using the model. The evaluating result can provide good advice for evaluating or purchasing the software.

Keywords: evaluation model, software quality, open source code, evaluation indicator

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Authors: A. Amar

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The angular distributions of the nuclear systems under consideration have been analyzed in the framework of the optical model (OM), where the real part was taken in the crystal model form. A crystal model (CM) has been applied to deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶,⁷Li and ⁹Be. A crystal model (CM) + distorted-wave Born approximation (DWBA) + dynamic polarization potential (DPP) potential has been applied to deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶,⁷Li and 9Be. Also, a crystal model has been applied to ⁶Li elastically scattered by ¹⁶O and ²⁸Sn in addition to the ⁷Li+⁷Li system and the ¹²C(alpha,⁸Be) ⁸Be reaction. The continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method has been applied to the ⁷Li+⁷Li system and agreement between the crystal model and the continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method has been observed. In general, the models succeeded in reproducing the differential cross sections at the full angular range and for all the energies under consideration.

Keywords: optical model (OM), crystal model (CM), distorted-wave born approximation (DWBA), dynamic polarization potential (DPP), the continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method, and deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶, ⁷Li and ⁹Be

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Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

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We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of cancer growth under the influence of radiation therapy. The effect of this type of therapy is considered as an additional equation of discussed model. Numerical simulations show that delay, which is added to ordinary differential equations and represent time needed for transformation from one type of cells to the other one, affects the behavior of the system. The validation and verification of proposed model is based on medical data. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. The model is able to reconstruct dynamics of treatment of cancer and may be used to determine the most effective treatment regimen based on the study of the behavior of individual treatment protocols.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, numerical simulation, ordinary differential equations, radiation therapy

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Authors: C. E. Madubueze, S. C. Madubueze, S. Ajama

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Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore, numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera in the population

Keywords: backward bifurcation, cholera, equilibrium, dynamics, stability

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: Manthan Patel, Vinit Ahlawat, Anshh Singh Claire, Pijush Samui

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This paper focuses on the analysis of quicksand condition for a dam foundation. The quicksand condition occurs in cohesion less soil when effective stress of soil becomes zero. In a dam, the saturated sediment may appear quite solid until a sudden change in pressure or shock initiates liquefaction. This causes the sand to form a suspension and lose strength hence resulting in failure of dam. A soil profile shows different properties at different points and the values obtained are uncertain thus reliability analysis is performed. The reliability is defined as probability of safety of a system in a given environment and loading condition and it is assessed as Reliability Index. The reliability analysis of dams under quicksand condition is carried by Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Reliability index and factor of safety relating to liquefaction of soil is analysed using GPR. The results of reliability analysis by GPR is compared to that of conventional method and it is demonstrated that on applying GPR the probabilistic analysis reduces the computational time and efforts.

Keywords: factor of safety, GPR, reliability index, quicksand

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Authors: Boguslaw Schreyer

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In this paper, a general dynamical model is derived using the Lagrange formalism. The two masses: sprang and unsprang are included in a six-degree of freedom model for a sprung mass. The unsprung mass is included and shown only in a simplified model, although its equations have also been derived by an author. The simplified equations, more suitable for the computer model of robot’s dynamics are also shown.

Keywords: dynamics, mobile, robot, wheeled mobile robots

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Authors: See-Yuan Cheng, Kwang-Yhee Chin, Shuhaimi Mansor

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Rear-roof spoiler is commonly used for improving the aerodynamic performance of road vehicles. This study aims to investigate the effect of yaw angle on the effectiveness of strip-type rear-roof spoiler in providing lower drag and lift coefficients of a hatchback model. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method was used. The numerically obtained results were compared to the experimental data for validation of the CFD method. At increasing yaw angle, both the drag and lift coefficients of the model were to increase. In addition, the effectiveness of spoiler was deteriorated. These unfavorable effects were due to the formation of longitudinal vortices around the side edges of the model that had caused the surface pressure of the model to drop. Furthermore, there were significant crossflow structures developed behind the model at larger yaw angle, which were associated with the drop in the surface pressure of the rear section of the model and cause the drag coefficient to rise.

Keywords: Ahmed model, aerodynamics, spoiler, yaw angle

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Authors: G. Judakova, M. Bause

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The ability to model and simulate numerically natural gas flow in pipelines has become of high importance for the design of pipeline systems. The understanding of the formation of hydrate particles and their dynamical behavior is of particular interest, since these processes govern the operation properties of the systems and are responsible for system failures by clogging of the pipelines under certain conditions. Mathematically, natural gas flow can be described by multiphase flow models. Using the two-fluid modeling approach, the gas phase is modeled by the compressible Euler equations and the particle phase is modeled by the pressureless Euler equations. The numerical simulation of compressible multiphase flows is an important research topic. It is well known that for nonlinear fluxes, even for smooth initial data, discontinuities in the solution are likely to occur in finite time. They are called shock waves or contact discontinuities. For hyperbolic and singularly perturbed parabolic equations the standard application of the Galerkin finite element method (FEM) leads to spurious oscillations (e.g. Gibb's phenomenon). In our approach, we use stabilized FEM, the streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin (SUPG) method, where artificial diffusion acting only in the direction of the streamlines and using a special treatment of the boundary conditions in inviscid convective terms, is added. Numerical experiments show that the numerical solution obtained and stabilized by SUPG captures discontinuities or steep gradients of the exact solution in layers. However, within this layer the approximate solution may still exhibit overshoots or undershoots. To suitably reduce these artifacts we add a discontinuity capturing or shock capturing term. The performance properties of our numerical scheme are illustrated for two-phase flow problem.

Keywords: two-phase flow, gas-particle mixture, inviscid two-fluid model, euler equation, finite element method, streamline upwind petrov-galerkin, shock capturing

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Authors: Carlos Roncero-Parra, Alfonso Parreño-Torres, Jorge Mateo Sotos, Alejandro L. Borja

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In this research, different methods based on machine/deep learning algorithms are presented for the classification and diagnosis of patients with mental disorders such as alzheimer. For this purpose, the signals obtained from 32 unipolar electrodes identified by non-invasive EEG were examined, and their basic properties were obtained. More specifically, different well-known machine learning based classifiers have been used, i.e., support vector machine (SVM), Bayesian linear discriminant analysis (BLDA), decision tree (DT), Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). A total of 668 patients from five different hospitals have been studied in the period from 2011 to 2021. The best accuracy is obtained was around 93 % in both ADM and ADA classifications. It can be concluded that such a classification will enable the training of algorithms that can be used to identify and classify different mental disorders with high accuracy.

Keywords: alzheimer, machine learning, deep learning, EEG

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Authors: Pitak Keawbunsong, Sathaporn Promwong

Abstract:

This paper presents an investigation on the efficiency of the optimized Davison path loss model in order to look for a suitable path loss model to design and planning DTTV propagation for small and medium urban areas in southern Thailand. Hadyai City in Songkla Province is chosen as the case study to collect the analytical data on the electric field strength. The optimization is conducted through the least square method while the efficiency index is through the statistical value of relative error (RE). The result of the least square method is the offset and slop of the frequency to be used in the optimized process. The statistical result shows that RE of the old Davidson model is at the least when being compared with the optimized Davison and the Hata models. Thus, the old Davison path loss model is the most accurate that further becomes the most optimized for the plan on the propagation network design.

Keywords: DTTV propagation, path loss model, Davidson model, least square method

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Authors: Wei Lu

Abstract:

With the development of information technology in China, network consumption is becoming more and more popular. As a special group, college students have a high degree of education and distinct opinions and personalities. In the future, the key groups of network consumption have gradually become the focus groups of network consumption. Studying college students’ online consumption behavior has important theoretical significance and practical value. Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) driving model and the structural equation model, this paper establishes the influencing factors model of College students’ online consumption behavior, evaluates and amends the model by using SPSS and AMOS software, analyses and determines the positive factors of marketing college students’ consumption, and provides an effective basis for guiding and promoting college student consumption.

Keywords: college students, online consumption, stimulate-organism-reaction driving model, structural equation model

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Authors: S. R. Dehghani, Y. S. Muzychka, G. F. Naterer

Abstract:

The ice accretion of salt water on cold substrates creates brine-spongy ice. This type of ice is a mixture of pure ice and liquid brine. A real case of creation of this type of ice is superstructure icing which occurs on marine vessels and offshore structures in cold and harsh conditions. Transient heat transfer through this medium causes phase changes between brine pockets and pure ice. Salt rejection during the process of transient heat conduction increases the salinity of brine pockets to reach a local equilibrium state. In this process the only effect of passing heat through the medium is not changing the sensible heat of the ice and brine pockets; latent heat plays an important role and affects the mechanism of heat transfer. In this study, a new analytical model for evaluating heat transfer through brine-spongy ice is suggested. This model considers heat transfer and partial solidification and melting together. Properties of brine-spongy ice are obtained using properties of liquid brine and pure ice. A numerical solution using Method of Lines discretizes the medium to reach a set of ordinary differential equations. Boundary conditions are chosen using one of the applicable cases of this type of ice; one side is considered as a thermally isolated surface, and the other side is assumed to be suddenly affected by a constant temperature boundary. All cases are evaluated in temperatures between -20 C and the freezing point of brine-spongy ice. Solutions are conducted using different salinities from 5 to 60 ppt. Time steps and space intervals are chosen properly to maintain the most stable and fast solution. Variation of temperature, volume fraction of brine and brine salinity versus time are the most important outputs of this study. Results show that transient heat conduction through brine-spongy ice can create a various range of salinity of brine pockets from the initial salinity to that of 180 ppt. The rate of variation of temperature is found to be slower for high salinity cases. The maximum rate of heat transfer occurs at the start of the simulation. This rate decreases as time passes. Brine pockets are smaller at portions closer to the colder side than that of the warmer side. A the start of the solution, the numerical solution tends to increase instabilities. This is because of sharp variation of temperature at the start of the process. Changing the intervals improves the unstable situation. The analytical model using a numerical scheme is capable of predicting thermal behavior of brine spongy ice. This model and numerical solutions are important for modeling the process of freezing of salt water and ice accretion on cold structures.

Keywords: method of lines, brine-spongy ice, heat conduction, salt water

Procedia PDF Downloads 217