Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

Authors: Rafi Ullah, Shah Muhammad Emaduddin, Taha Jilani

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Vehicle Adhoc Networks (VANET) belongs to a special class of Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET) with high mobility. Network is created by road side vehicles equipped with communication devices like GPS and Wifi etc. Since the environment is highly dynamic due to difference in speed and high mobility of vehicles and weak stability of the network connection, it is a challenging task to design an efficient routing protocol for such an unstable environment. Our proposed algorithm uses heuristic for the calculation of optimal path for routing the packet efficiently in collaboration with several other parameters like geographical location, speed, priority, the distance among the vehicles, communication range, and networks congestion. We have incorporated probabilistic, heuristic and machine learning based approach inconsistency with the relay function of the memory buffer to keep the packet moving towards the destination. These parameters when used in collaboration provide us a very strong and admissible heuristics. We have mathematically proved that the proposed technique is efficient for the routing of packets, especially in a medical emergency situation. These networks can be used for medical emergency, security, entertainment and routing purposes.

Keywords: heuristics routing, intelligent routing, VANET, route optimization

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Authors: Chia-Hsun Chang

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Background: Combination of drug treatment, dietary management, and regular exercise can effectively control type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Performing daily physical activities other than structured exercise is much easier and whether daily physical activities including work, walking, housework, gardening, leisure exercise, or transportation have a similar effect on diabetes control is not well studied.Aims and Objectives: This study aims to determine whether daily physical activity undertaken by patients with T2DM is associated with their diabetes control. Design: A correlation study with prospective design. Methods: Purposive sampling of 206 patients with T2DM was recruited from a medical center in Central Taiwan. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire was used to assess daily levels of physical activities, and the Diabetes Compliance Questionnaire was used to assess medication and dietary compliance. Data of diabetes control (hemoglobin A1c, HbA1c)were followed up every three months for one year after recruitment. Results: In this study, the average age of the participants was 62.5 years (±10.4 years), and the average duration of diabetes since diagnosis was 13.2 years (±7.8), 112 of the participants were women (54.4%) and 94 of the participants were men (45.6%). The mean HbA1c level was 7.8% (±1.4), and 78.2% of the participants presented with unsatisfactory diabetes control. Because the participants were distributed across a wide age range, and their physical health, activity levels, and comorbidities might have varied with age, the participants were divided into two groups: 121 participants who were younger than 65 years (58.7%) and 85 participants who were older than 65 years (41.3%). Both younger (< 65 years) and older (> 65 years) patients with diabetes engaged in more moderate and low levels of physical activity (89.3% and 87%, respectively). Results showed that the levels of daily physical activity were not significantly associated with diabetes control after adjustment for medication and dietary compliance in both groups. Conclusion: Performing daily physical activity is not significantly correlated with diabetes control. Daily physical activity cannot completely replace exercise. Relevance to Clinical Practice: Health personnel must encourage patients to engage in exercise that is planned, structured, and repetitive for improving diabetes control.

Keywords: daily physical activity, diabetes control, international physical activity questionnaire (IPAQ), type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM)

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Rasha Waheeb, Bjorn Andersen, Rafa Shakir

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to avoid delays that occur in emergency reconstruction projects especially in post disaster circumstances whether if they were natural or manmade due to their particular national and humanitarian importance. We presented a theoretical and practical concepts for projects management in the field of construction industry that deal with a range of global and local trails. This study aimed to identify the factors of effective delay in construction projects in Iraq that affect the time and the specific quality cost, and find the best solutions to address delays and solve the problem by setting parameters to restore balance in this study. 30 projects were selected in different areas of construction were selected as a sample for this study. Design/methodology/approach This study discusses the reconstruction strategies and delay in time and cost caused by different delay factors in some selected projects in Iraq (Baghdad as a case study).A case study approach was adopted, with thirty construction projects selected from the Baghdad region, of different types and sizes. Project participants from the case projects provided data about the projects through a data collection instrument distributed through a survey. Mixed approach and methods were applied in this study. Mathematical data analysis was used to construct models to predict delay in time and cost of projects before they started. The artificial neural networks analysis was selected as a mathematical approach. These models were mainly to help decision makers in construction project to find solutions to these delays before they cause any inefficiency in the project being implemented and to strike the obstacles thoroughly to develop this industry in Iraq. This approach was practiced using the data collected through survey and questionnaire data collection as information form. Findings The most important delay factors identified leading to schedule overruns were contractor failure, redesigning of designs/plans and change orders, security issues, selection of low-price bids, weather factors, and owner failures. Some of these are quite in line with findings from similar studies in other countries/regions, but some are unique to the Iraqi project sample, such as security issues and low-price bid selection. Originality/value we selected ANN’s analysis first because ANN’s was rarely used in project management , and never been used in Iraq to finding solutions for problems in construction industry. Also, this methodology can be used in complicated problems when there is no interpretation or solution for a problem. In some cases statistical analysis was conducted and in some cases the problem is not following a linear equation or there was a weak correlation, thus we suggested using the ANN’s because it is used for nonlinear problems to find the relationship between input and output data and that was really supportive.

Keywords: construction projects, delay factors, emergency reconstruction, innovation ANN, post disasters, project management

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Authors: Natalia Feruleva

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The goal of this paper is to develop the fraud risk assessment model basing on both relational and financial data and test the impact of the relationships between Russian non-public companies on the likelihood of financial fraud commitment. Relationships mean various linkages between companies such as parent-subsidiary relationship and person-related relationships. These linkages may provide additional opportunities for committing fraud. Person-related relationships appear when firms share a director, or the director owns another firm. The number of companies belongs to CEO and managed by CEO, the number of subsidiaries was calculated to measure the relationships. Moreover, the dummy variable describing the existence of parent company was also included in model. Control variables such as financial leverage and return on assets were also implemented because they describe the motivating factors of fraud. To check the hypotheses about the influence of the chosen parameters on the likelihood of financial fraud, information about person-related relationships between companies, existence of parent company and subsidiaries, profitability and the level of debt was collected. The resulting sample consists of 160 Russian non-public firms. The sample includes 80 fraudsters and 80 non-fraudsters operating in 2006-2017. The dependent variable is dichotomous, and it takes the value 1 if the firm is engaged in financial crime, otherwise 0. Employing probit model, it was revealed that the number of companies which belong to CEO of the firm or managed by CEO has significant impact on the likelihood of financial fraud. The results obtained indicate that the more companies are affiliated with the CEO, the higher the likelihood that the company will be involved in financial crime. The forecast accuracy of the model is about is 80%. Thus, the model basing on both relational and financial data gives high level of forecast accuracy.

Keywords: financial fraud, fraud prediction, non-public companies, regression analysis, relational data

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Authors: Indhumathi Gopal

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Undergraduate research is well documented in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM), neurosciences, and microbiology disciplines, though it is hardly part of a physical fitness & wellness discipline. However, students need experiential learning opportunities, like internships and research assistantships, to get ahead with graduate schools and be gainfully employed. The first step towards this goal is to have students do a simple research project in a semester-long course. The value of research experiences and how to integrate research activity in a physical fitness & wellness course are discussed. The investigator looks into a mini research project, “Awareness of Obesity among College Students” and explains how to guide students through the research process, including journal search, data collection, and basic statistics. Besides, students will be introduced to the statistical package program SPSS 22.0 to assist with data evaluation. The lab component of the combined lecture-physical activity course could include the measurement of student’s weight with respect to their height to obtain body mass index (BMI). Students could categorize themselves in accordance with the World Health Organization’s guidelines. Results obtained after completing the data analysis help students be aware of their own potential health risks associated with overweight and obesity. Overweight and obesity are risk factors for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and certain types of cancer. It is hoped that this experience will get students interested in scientific studies, gain confidence, think critically, and develop problem-solving and good communication skills.

Keywords: physical fitness, undergraduate research experience, obesity, BMI

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Authors: Amritha Nair, Fleur Visser, Ian Maddock, Jonas Schoelynck

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Inland waters such as streams sustain a rich variety of species and are essentially hotspots for biodiversity. Submerged aquatic vegetation, also known as SAV, forms an important part of ecologically healthy river systems. Direct and indirect human influences, such as climate change are putting stress on aquatic plant communities, ranging from the invasion of non-native species and grazing, to changes in the river flow conditions and temperature. There is a need to monitor SAV, because they are in a state of deterioration and their disappearance will greatly impact river ecosystems. Like terrestrial plants, SAV can show visible signs of stress. However, the techniques used to map terrestrial vegetation from its spectral reflectance, are not easily transferable to a submerged environment. Optical remote sensing techniques are employed to detect the stress from remotely sensed images through multispectral imagery and Structure from Motion photogrammetry. The effect of the overlying water column in the form of refraction, attenuation of visible and near infrared bands in water, as well as highly moving targets, are NIR) key challenges that arise when remotely mapping SAV. This study looks into the possibility of mapping the changes in spectral signatures from SAV and their response to certain stresses.

Keywords: submerged aquatic vegetation, structure from motion, photogrammetry, multispectral, spectroscopy

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Authors: Nabila Jaman, K. E. Hoque, S. Sawall, M. Ferdows

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Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the most lethal diseases of the cardiovascular diseases. Coronary arteries stenosis and bifurcation angles closely interact for myocardial infarction. We want to use computer-aided design model coupled with computational hemodynamics (CHD) simulation for detecting several types of coronary artery stenosis with different locations in an idealized model for identifying virtual fractional flow reserve (vFFR). The vFFR provides us the information about the severity of stenosis in the computational models. Another goal is that we want to imitate patient-specific computed tomography coronary artery angiography model for constructing our idealized models with different left anterior descending (LAD) and left circumflex (LCx) bifurcation angles. Further, we want to analyze whether the bifurcation angles has an impact on the creation of narrowness in coronary arteries or not. The numerical simulation provides the CHD parameters such as wall shear stress (WSS), velocity magnitude and pressure gradient (PGD) that allow us the information of stenosis condition in the computational domain.

Keywords: CAD, CHD, vFFR, bifurcation angles, coronary stenosis

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Authors: Andres Nieto-Leal, Victor N. Kaliakin, Tania P. Molina

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The nature of most engineering materials is quite complex. It is, therefore, difficult to devise a general mathematical model that will cover all possible ranges and types of excitation and behavior of a given material. As a result, the development of mathematical models is based upon simplifying assumptions regarding material behavior. Such simplifications result in some material idealization; for example, one of the simplest material idealization is to assume that the material behavior obeys the elasticity. However, soils are nonhomogeneous, anisotropic, path-dependent materials that exhibit nonlinear stress-strain relationships, changes in volume under shear, dilatancy, as well as time-, rate- and temperature-dependent behavior. Over the years, many constitutive models, possessing different levels of sophistication, have been developed to simulate the behavior geomaterials, particularly cohesive soils. Early in the development of constitutive models, it became evident that elastic or standard elastoplastic formulations, employing purely isotropic hardening and predicated in the existence of a yield surface surrounding a purely elastic domain, were incapable of realistically simulating the behavior of geomaterials. Accordingly, more sophisticated constitutive models have been developed; for example, the bounding surface elastoplasticity. The essence of the bounding surface concept is the hypothesis that plastic deformations can occur for stress states either within or on the bounding surface. Thus, unlike classical yield surface elastoplasticity, the plastic states are not restricted only to those lying on a surface. Elastoplastic bounding surface models have been improved; however, there is still need to improve their capabilities in simulating the response of anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils, especially the response in extension tests. Thus, in this work an improved constitutive model that can more accurately predict diverse stress-strain phenomena exhibited by cohesive soils was developed. Particularly, an improved rotational hardening rule that better simulate the response of cohesive soils in extension. The generalized definition of the bounding surface model provides a convenient and elegant framework for unifying various previous versions of the model for anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils. The Generalized Bounding Surface Model for cohesive soils is a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent model that accounts for both inherent and stress induced anisotropy employing a non-associative flow rule. The model numerical implementation in a computer code followed an adaptive multistep integration scheme in conjunction with local iteration and radial return. The one-step trapezoidal rule was used to get the stiffness matrix that defines the relationship between the stress increment and the strain increment. After testing the model in simulating the response of cohesive soils through extensive comparisons of model simulations to experimental data, it has been shown to give quite good simulations. The new model successfully simulates the response of different cohesive soils; for example, Cardiff Kaolin, Spestone Kaolin, and Lower Cromer Till. The simulated undrained stress paths, stress-strain response, and excess pore pressures are in very good agreement with the experimental values, especially in extension.

Keywords: bounding surface elastoplasticity, cohesive soils, constitutive model, modeling of geomaterials

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Authors: Dongju Kim, Youngjoo Suh, Hyojin Kim, Gyeongyeong Kim

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Acoustic Emission Testing (AET) is widely used to test the structural integrity of an operational hydrogen storage container, and clustering algorithms are frequently used in pattern recognition methods to interpret AET results. However, the interpretation of AET results can vary from user to user as the tuning of the relevant parameters relies on the user's experience and knowledge of AET. Therefore, it is necessary to use a deep learning model to identify patterns in acoustic emission (AE) signal data that can be used to classify defects instead. In this paper, a deep learning-based model for classifying the types of defects in hydrogen storage tanks, using AE sensor waveforms, is proposed. As hydrogen storage tanks are commonly constructed using carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite (CFRP), a defect classification dataset is collected through a tensile test on a specimen of CFRP with an AE sensor attached. The performance of the classification model, using one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) data augmentation, achieved 91.09% accuracy for each defect. It is expected that the deep learning classification model in this paper, used with AET, will help in evaluating the operational safety of hydrogen storage containers.

Keywords: acoustic emission testing, carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite, one-dimensional convolutional neural network, smote data augmentation

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Authors: Sania Bashir

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A promising approach to healthcare delivery, telemedicine makes use of communication technology to reach out to remote regions of the world, allowing for beneficial interactions between diabetic patients and healthcare professionals as well as the provision of affordable and easily accessible medical care. The emergence of contemporary care models, fueled by the pervasiveness of mobile devices, provides better information, offers low cost with the best possible outcomes, and is known as digital health. It involves the integration of collected data using software and apps, as well as low-cost, high-quality outcomes. The goal of this study is to assess how well telemedicine works for diabetic patients and how it impacts their HbA1c levels. A questionnaire-based survey of 300 diabetics included 150 patients in each of the groups receiving usual care and via telemedicine. A descriptive and observational study that lasted from September 2021 to May 2022 was conducted. HbA1c has been gathered for both categories every three months. A remote monitoring tool has been used to assess the efficacy of telemedicine and continuing therapy instead of the customary three monthly meetings like in-person consultations. The patients were (42.3) 18.3 years old on average. 128 men were outnumbered by 172 women (57.3% of the total). 200 patients (66.6%) have type 2 diabetes, compared to over 100 (33.3%) candidates for type 1. Despite the average baseline BMI being within normal ranges at 23.4 kg/m², the mean baseline HbA1c (9.45 1.20) indicates that glycemic treatment is not well-controlled at the time of registration. While patients who use telemedicine experienced a mean percentage change of 10.5, those who visit the clinic experienced a mean percentage change of 3.9. Changes in HbA1c are dependent on several factors, including improvements in BMI (61%) after 9 months of research and compliance with healthy lifestyle recommendations for diet and activity. More compliance was achieved by the telemedicine group. It is an undeniable reality that patient-physician communication is crucial for enhancing health outcomes and avoiding long-term issues. Telemedicine has shown its value in the management of diabetes and holds promise as a novel technique for improved clinical-patient communication in the twenty-first century.

Keywords: diabetes, digital health, mobile app, telemedicine

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Authors: T. Yuri, M. Zagloel, Inaki M. Hakim, Tegu Bintang Nugraha

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In an era of customer centricity, automotive parts manufacturer in Indonesia must be able to keep up with the uncertainty and fluctuation of consumer demand. Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) is a strategy to react to predicted and unpredicted changes of demand in automotive industry. This research is about flexible mixed model assembly line design through Value Stream Mapping (VSM) and Line Balancing in mixed model assembly line prior to simulation. It uses value stream mapping to identify and reduce waste while finding the best position to add or reduce manpower. Line balancing is conducted to minimize or maximize production rate while increasing assembly line productivity and efficiency. Results of this research is a recommendation of standard work combination for specifics demand scenario which can enhance assembly line efficiency and productivity.

Keywords: automotive industry, demand uncertainty, flexible assembly system, line balancing, value stream mapping

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Authors: Jutamas Wisansing, Thanakarn Vongvisitsin, Udom Hongchatikul

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Designated Areas for Sustainable Tourism Administration (DASTA) is a public organization, dedicating to sustainable tourism development in 6 designated areas in Thailand. This paper provides rich reflections from a decade of DASTA, formulating an advanced model to deepen our understanding of 2 key intertwining issues; 1) what are the new landscapes of actors for community based tourism and 2) who are the benefactors and beneficiaries of tourism development within the community? An action research approach was used, enabling the process and evidence-based cases to be better captured. The aim is to build theoretical foundation through 13 communities/cases, which have engaged in community based tourism pilot projects. Drawing from emic and qualitative research, specific and contextual phenomenon provides succinct patterns of ‘Community Benefitting through Tourism (CbtT)’ model. The re-definition of the 2 key issues helps shape the interlinking of actors; practicalities of inclusive tourism and inter-sectoral framework and its value chain will also be set forth. In tourism sector, community members could be active primarily on the supply side as employees, entrepreneurs and local heritage experts. CbtT when well defined stimulates the entire value chain of local economy while promoting social innovation through positive dialogue with wider actors. Collaboration with a new set of actors who are from the tourism-related businesses and non-tourism related businesses create better impacts on mutual benefits.

Keywords: community based tourism, community benefitting through tourism -CbtT DASTA model, sustainable tourism in thailand, value chain and inclusive business

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Authors: David Percy

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Landslides are a geologic phenomenon that affects a large number of inhabited places and are constantly being monitored and studied for the prediction of future occurrences. Reconstructability analysis (RA) is a methodology for extracting informative models from large volumes of data that work exclusively with discrete data. While RA has been used in medical applications and social science extensively, we are introducing it to the spatial sciences through applications like landslide prediction. Since RA works exclusively with discrete data, such as soil classification or bedrock type, working with continuous data, such as porosity, requires that these data are binned for inclusion in the model. RA constructs models of the data which pick out the most informative elements, independent variables (IVs), from each layer that predict the dependent variable (DV), landslide occurrence. Each layer included in the model retains its classification data as a primary encoding of the data. Unlike other machine learning algorithms that force the data into one-hot encoding type of schemes, RA works directly with the data as it is encoded, with the exception of continuous data, which must be binned. The usual physical and derived layers are included in the model, and testing our results against other published methodologies, such as neural networks, yields accuracy that is similar but with the advantage of a completely transparent model. The results of an RA session with a data set are a report on every combination of variables and their probability of landslide events occurring. In this way, every combination of informative state combinations can be examined.

Keywords: reconstructability analysis, machine learning, landslides, raster analysis

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Authors: M.Younus, M. Athar Khan, Asif Adrees

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The present research endeavour was made to investigate the Public Health impact of Salmonellosis through consuming the meat and eggs of the carrier’s birds and to see the prevalence of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium from poultry feed, poultry meat, and poultry eggs and their role in the chain of transmission of salmonellae to human beings and causing food poisoning. The ultimate objective was to generate data to improve the quality of poultry products and human health awareness. Salmonellosis is one of the most wide spread food borne zoonoses in all the continents of the world. The etiological agents Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium not only produce the disease but during the convalescent phase (after the recovery of disease) remain carriers for indefinite period of time. The carrier state was not only the source of spread of disease with in the poultry but also caused typhoid fever in humans. The chain of transmission started from poultry feed to poultry meat and ultimately to humans as dead end hosts. In this experiment a total number of 200 samples of human stool and blood were collected randomly (100 samples of human stool and 100 samples of human blood) of 100 patients suspected from food poisoning patients from different hospitals of Lahore area for the identification of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium through PCR method in order to see the public health impact of Salmonellosis through consuming the meat and eggs of the carrier birds. On the average 14 and 10 stool samples were found positive against Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium from each of the 25 patients from each hospital respectively in case of suspected food poisoning patients. Similarly on an average 5% and 6% blood samples were found positive from 25 patients of each hospital respectively. There was a significant difference (P< 0.05) in the sero positivity of stool and blood samples of suspected food poisoning patients as far as Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium was concerned. However there was no significant difference (P<0.05) between the hospitals.

Keywords: salmonella, zoonosis, food, transmission, eggs

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Authors: P. Karthick, K. Mahesh

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Video has become an increasingly significant component of our digital everyday contact. With the advancement of greater contents and shows of the resolution, its significant volume poses serious obstacles to the objective of receiving, distributing, compressing, and revealing video content of high quality. In this paper, we propose the primary beginning to complete a deep video compression model that jointly upgrades all video compression components. The video compression method involves splitting the video into frames, comparing the images using convolutional neural networks (CNN) to remove duplicates, repeating the single image instead of the duplicate images by recognizing and detecting minute changes using generative adversarial network (GAN) and recorded with long short-term memory (LSTM). Instead of the complete image, the small changes generated using GAN are substituted, which helps in frame level compression. Pixel wise comparison is performed using K-nearest neighbours (KNN) over the frame, clustered with K-means, and singular value decomposition (SVD) is applied for each and every frame in the video for all three color channels [Red, Green, Blue] to decrease the dimension of the utility matrix [R, G, B] by extracting its latent factors. Video frames are packed with parameters with the aid of a codec and converted to video format, and the results are compared with the original video. Repeated experiments on several videos with different sizes, duration, frames per second (FPS), and quality results demonstrate a significant resampling rate. On average, the result produced had approximately a 10% deviation in quality and more than 50% in size when compared with the original video.

Keywords: video compression, K-means clustering, convolutional neural network, generative adversarial network, singular value decomposition, pixel visualization, stochastic gradient descent, frame per second extraction, RGB channel extraction, self-detection and deciding system

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Authors: Salman Obaidoon, Mohamed Hassan, Omer Bakather

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As environmental regulations increase, the need for a clean and inexpensive energy is becoming necessary these days using an available raw material with high efficiency and low emissions of toxic gases. This paper presents a study on modifying a gas turbine power plant fired by diesel, which is located in Saudi Arabia in order to increase the efficiency and capacity of the station as well as decrease the rate of emissions. The studied power plant consists of 30 units with different capacities and total net power is 1470 MW. The study was conducted on unit number 25 (GT-25) which produces 72.3 MW with 29.5% efficiency. In the beginning, the unit was modeled and simulated by using WinSim Design II software. In this step, actual unit data were used in order to test the validity of the model. The net power and efficiency obtained from software were 76.4 MW and 32.2% respectively. A difference of about 6% was found in the simulated power plant compared to the actual station which means that the model is valid. After the validation of the model, the simple gas turbine power plant was converted to a combined cycle power plant (CCPP). In this case, the exhausted gas released from the gas turbine was introduced to a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), which consists of three heat exchangers: an economizer, an evaporator and a superheater. In this proposed model, many scenarios were conducted in order to get the optimal operating conditions. The net power of CCPP was increased to 116.4 MW while the overall efficiency of the unit was reached to 49.02%, consuming the same amount of fuel for the gas turbine power plant. For the purpose of comparing the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide on each model. It was found that the rate of CO₂ emissions was decreased from 15.94 kg/s to 9.22 kg/s by using the combined cycle power model as a result of reducing of the amount of diesel from 5.08 kg/s to 2.94 kg/s needed to produce 76.5 MW. The results indicate that the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide was decreased by 42.133% in CCPP compared to the simple gas turbine power plant.

Keywords: combined cycle power plant, efficiency, heat recovery steam generator, simulation, validation, WinSim design II software

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis

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Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Amira Omrane, Malika Azzouzi, Asma Kheder, Amira Saadallah, Ilhem Boussarsar, Kamel Rejeb

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Introduction: Increasing the women’s labor force participation is a political issue in countries with developed economies and those with low growth prospects. However, in the labor market, women continue to face several obstacles, either for the integration or for the maintenance at work. This study aims to assess the prevalence of premature withdrawal from working life -due to invalidity or medical justified early retirement- among active women in the Tunisian center and to identify its determinants. Material and methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study, over one year, focusing on the agreement for invalidity or early retirement for premature usury of the body- delivered by the medical commission of the National Health Insurance Fund (CNAM) in the central Tunisian district. We exhaustively selected women's files. Data related to Socio-demographic characteristics, professional and medical ones, were collected from the CNAM's administrative and medical files. Results: During the period of one year, 222 women have had an agreement for premature departure of their professional activity. Indeed, 149 women (67.11%) benefit of from invalidity agreement and 20,27% of them from favorable decision for early retirement. The average age was 50 ± 6 years with extremes of 23 and 62 years, and 18.9% of women were under 45 years. Married women accounted for 69.4% and 59.9% of them had at least one dependent child in charge. The average professional seniority in the sector was 23 ± 8 years. The textile-clothing sector was the most affected, with 70.7% of premature departure. Medical reasons for withdrawal from working life were mainly related to neuro-degenerative diseases in 46.8% of cases, rheumatic ones in 35.6% of cases and cardiovascular diseases in 22.1% of them. Psychiatric and endocrine disorders motivated respectively 17.1% and 13.5% of these departures. The evaluation of the sequels induced by these pathologies concluded to an average permanent partial disability equal to 61.4 ± 17.3%. The analytical study concluded that the agreement of disability or early retirement was correlated with the insured ‘age (p = 10-3), the professional seniority (p = 0.003) and the permanent partial incapacity (PPI) rate assessed by the expert physician (p = 0.04). No other social or professional factors were correlated with this decision. Conclusion: Despite many advances in labour law and Tunisian legal text on employability, women still exposed to several social and professional inequalities (payment inequality, precarious work ...). Indeed, women are often pushed to accept working in adverse conditions, thus they are more vulnerable to develop premature wear on the body and being forced to premature departures from the world of work. These premature withdrawals from active life are not only harmful to the concerned women themselves, but also associated with considerable costs for the insurance organism and the society. In order to ensure maintenance at work for women, a political commitment is imperative in the implementation of global prevention strategies and the improvement of working conditions, particularly in our socio-cultural context.

Keywords: Active Women , Early Retirement , Invalidity , Maintenance at Work

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Authors: Lam Hong Lan

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The textile industry is said to be the second-largest polluter, responsible for 92 million tonnes of waste annually. There is an urgent need to practice the circular economy to increase the use and reuse around the world. By its nature, the pre-owned fashion business is considered part of the circular economy as it helps to eliminate waste and circulate products. Second-hand clothes and accessories used to be associated with a ‘cheap image’ that carried ‘old energy’ in Vietnam. This perception has been shifted, especially amongst the younger generation. Vietnamese consumer is spending more on products and services that increase self-esteem. The same consumer is moving away from a collectivist social identity towards a ‘me, not we’ outlook as they look for a way to express their individual identity. And pre-owned fashion is one of their solutions as it values money, can create a unique personal style for the wearer and links with sustainability. The design of this study is based on the second-hand shopping motivation theory. A semi-structured online survey with 100 consumers from one pre-owned clothing community and one pre-owned e-commerce site in Vietnam. The findings show that in contrast with Vietnamese older consumers (55+yo) who, in the previous study, generally associated pre-owned fashion with ‘low-cost’, ‘cheap image’ that carried ‘old energy’, young customers (20-30 yo) were actively promoted their pre-owned fashion items to the public via outlet’s social platforms and their social media. This cultural shift comes from the impact of global and local discourse around sustainable fashion and the growth of digital platforms in the pre-owned fashion business in the last five years, which has generally supported wider interest in pre-owned fashion in Vietnam. It can be summarised in three areas: (1) global and local celebrity influencers. A number of celebrities have been photographed wearing vintage items in music videos, photoshoots or at red carpet events. (2) E-commerce and intermediaries. International e-commerce sites – e.g., Vinted, TheRealReal – and/or local apps – e.g., Re.Loved – can influence attitudes and behaviors towards pre-owned consumption. (3) Eco-awareness. The increased online coverage of climate change and environmental pollution has encouraged customers to adopt a more eco-friendly approach to their wardrobes. While sustainable biomaterials and designs are still navigating their way into sustainability, sustainable consumerism via pre-owned fashion seems to be an immediate solution to lengthen the clothes lifecycle. This study has found that young consumers are primarily seeking value for money and/or a unique personal style from pre-owned/vintage fashion while using these purchases to promote their own “eco-awareness” via their social media networks. This is a good indication for fashion designers to keep in mind in their design process and for fashion enterprises in their business model’s choice to not overproduce fashion items.

Keywords: cultural shift, pre-owned fashion, sustainable consumption, sustainable fashion.

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Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

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The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies

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Authors: Thiago Victor Cordeiro Marcos, Joao Felipe de Araujo Martos, Ronaldo de Lima Cardoso, David Romanelli Pinto, Paulo Gilberto de Paula Toro, Israel da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

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Currently, the use of 3D rapid prototyping, also known as 3D printing, has been investigated by some universities around the world as an innovative technique, fast, flexible and cheap for a direct plastic models manufacturing that are lighter and with complex geometries to be tested for hypersonic shock tunnel. Initially, the purpose is integrated prototyped parts with metal models that actually are manufactured through of the conventional machining and hereafter replace them with completely prototyped models. The mechanical design models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel are based on conventional manufacturing processes, therefore are limited forms and standard geometries. The use of 3D rapid prototyping offers a range of options that enables geometries innovation and ways to be used for the design new models. The conception and project of a prototyped model for hypersonic shock tunnel should be rethought and adapted when comparing the conventional manufacturing processes, in order to fully exploit the creativity and flexibility that are allowed by the 3D prototyping process. The objective of this paper is to compare the conception and project of a 3D rapid prototyping model and a conventional machining model, while showing the advantages and disadvantages of each process and the benefits that 3D prototyping can bring to the manufacture of models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D prototyping, experimental research, hypersonic shock tunnel

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Authors: Amr A. El Hanafy, Yasser M. Saad, Saleh A. Alkarim, Hussein A. Almehdar, Elrashdy M. Redwan

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Camels are substantial providers of transport, milk, sport, meat, shelter, fuel, security and capital in many countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. Identification of animal breeds has progressed rapidly during the last decade. Advanced molecular techniques are playing a significant role in breeding or strain protection laws. On the other hand, fingerprinting of some molecular markers related to some productive traits in farm animals represents most important studies to our knowledge, which aim to conserve these local genetic resources, and to the genetic improvement of such local breeds by selective programs depending on gene markers. Milk records were taken two days in each week from female camels of Majahem, Safara, Wathaha, and Hamara breeds, respectively from different private farms in northern Jeddah, Riyadh and Alwagh governorates and average weekly yields were calculated. DNA sequencing for CSN2 gene was used for evaluating the genetic variations and calculating the genetic distance values among four Saudi camel populations which are Hamra(R), Safra(Y), Wadha(W) and Majaheim(M). In addition, this marker was analyzed for reconstructing the Neighbor joining tree among evaluating camel breeds. In respect to milk yield during winter season, result indicated that average weekly milk yield of Safara camel breed (30.05 Kg/week) is significantly (p < 0.05) lower than the other 3 breeds which ranged from 39.68 for Hamara to 42.42 Kg/week for Majahem, while there are not significant differences between these three breeds. The Neighbor Joining analysis that re-constructed based on DNA variations showed that samples are clustered into two unique clades. The first clade includes Y (from Y4 to Y18) and M (from M1, to M9). On the other hand, the second cluster is including all R (from R1 to R6) and W (from W1 to W6). The genetic distance values were equal 0.0068 (between the groups M&Y and R&W) and equal 0 (within each group).

Keywords: milk yield, beta-casein precursor (CSN2), Saudi camel, molecular markers

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Authors: Mehdi Mirzaei Alavijeh, Farzad Jalilian

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Background: Marijuana is the most widely used illicit drug worldwide, especially among adolescents and young adults, which can cause numerous complications. The aim of this study was to determine the pattern, motivation use, and factors related to marijuana use among Iranian youths based on the integrative model of behavioral prediction Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 174 youths marijuana user in Kermanshah County and Isfahan County, during summer 2014 which was selected with the convenience sampling for participation in this study. A self-reporting questionnaire was applied for collecting data. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 21 using bivariate correlations and linear regression statistical tests. Results: The mean marijuana use of respondents was 4.60 times at during week [95% CI: 4.06, 5.15]. Linear regression statistical showed, the structures of integrative model of behavioral prediction accounted for 36% of the variation in the outcome measure of the marijuana use at during week (R2 = 36% & P < 0.001); and among them attitude, marijuana refuse, and subjective norms were a stronger predictors. Conclusion: Comprehensive health education and prevention programs need to emphasize on cognitive factors that predict youth’s health-related behaviors. Based on our findings it seems, designing educational and behavioral intervention for reducing positive belief about marijuana, marijuana self-efficacy refuse promotion and reduce subjective norms encourage marijuana use has an effective potential to protect youths marijuana use.

Keywords: marijuana, youth, integrative model of behavioral prediction, Iran

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building, Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that this simplification would only lead to the error that is less than 7% for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which can cover most situations.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Izadi Banafsheh, Sedaghat Reza

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Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) of machinery are a key recent issue concerning the automotive industry. It has always been a debated question what order or priority should be adopted for the MRO of machinery. This study attempts to examine several criteria including process sensitivity, average time between machine failures, average duration of repair, availability of parts, availability of maintenance personnel and workload through a literature review and experts survey so as to determine the condition of the machine. According to the mentioned criteria, the machinery were ranked in four modes below: A) Need for inspection, B) Need for minor repair, C) Need for part replacement, and D) Need for major repair. The Fuzzy AHP was employed to determine the weighting of criteria. At the end, the obtained weights were ranked through the AHP for each criterion, three groups were specified: shaving machines, assembly and painting in four modes. The statistical population comprises the elite in the Iranian automotive industry at IKCO covering operation managers, CEOs and maintenance professionals who are highly specialized in MRO and perfectly knowledgeable in how the machinery function. The information required for this study were collected from both desk research and field review, which eventually led to construction of a questionnaire handed out to the sample respondents in order to collect information on the subject matter. The results of the AHP for weighting the criteria revealed that the availability of maintenance personnel was the top priority at coefficient of 0.206, while the process sensitivity took the last priority at coefficient of 0.066. Furthermore, the results of TOPSIS for prioritizing the IKCO machinery suggested that at the mode where there is need for inspection, the assembly machines took the top priority while paining machines took the third priority. As for the mode where there is need for minor repairs, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third priority belonged to the shaving machines. As for the mode where there is need for parts replacement, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third belonged to the paining machinery. Finally, as for the mode where there is need for major repair, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third belonged to the paining machinery.

Keywords: maintenance, repair, overhaul, MRO, prioritization of machinery, fuzzy logic, AHP, TOPSIS

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Authors: Emre Kara, Şura Karakuzu, Ahmet Fatih Geylan, Metehan Demir, Kadir Koç, Halil Aykul

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The material selection in the design of the sandwich structures is very crucial aspect because of the positive or negative influences of the base materials to the mechanical properties of the entire panel. In the literature, it was presented that the selection of the skin and core materials plays very important role on the behavior of the sandwich. Beside this, the use of the correct adhesive can make the whole structure to show better mechanical results and behavior. By this way, the sandwich structures realized in the study were obtained with the combination of aluminum foam core and three different glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) skins using two different commercial adhesives which are based on flexible polyurethane and toughened epoxy. The static and dynamic tests were already applied on the sandwiches with different types of adhesives. In the present work, the static three-point bending tests were performed on the sandwiches having an aluminum foam core with the thickness of 15 mm, the skins with three different types of fabrics ([0°/90°] cross ply E-Glass Biaxial stitched, [0°/90°] cross ply E-Glass Woven and [0°/90°] cross ply S-Glass Woven which have same thickness value of 1.75 mm) and two different commercial adhesives (flexible polyurethane and toughened epoxy based) at different values of support span distances (L= 55, 70, 80, 125 mm) by aiming the analyses of their flexural performance. The skins used in the study were produced via Vacuum Assisted Resin Transfer Molding (VARTM) technique and were easily bonded onto the aluminum foam core with flexible and toughened adhesives under a very low pressure using press machine with the alignment tabs having the total thickness of the whole panel. The main results of the flexural loading are: force-displacement curves obtained after the bending tests, peak force values, absorbed energy, collapse mechanisms, adhesion quality and the effect of the support span length and adhesive type. The experimental results presented that the sandwiches with epoxy based toughened adhesive and the skins made of S-Glass Woven fabrics indicated the best adhesion quality and mechanical properties. The sandwiches with toughened adhesive exhibited higher peak force and energy absorption values compared to the sandwiches with flexible adhesive. The core shear mode occurred in the sandwiches with flexible polyurethane based adhesive through the thickness of the core while the same mode took place in the sandwiches with toughened epoxy based adhesive along the length of the core. The use of these sandwich structures can lead to a weight reduction of the transport vehicles, providing an adequate structural strength under operating conditions.

Keywords: adhesive and adhesion, aluminum foam, bending, collapse mechanisms

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Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

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In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador

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Authors: J. Bahrawi, M. Elhag

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Estimation of evapotranspiration is always a major component in water resources management. Traditional techniques of calculating daily evapotranspiration based on field measurements are valid only for local scales. Earth observation satellite sensors are thus used to overcome difficulties in obtaining daily evapotranspiration measurements on regional scale. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model was adopted to estimate daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation along with other land surface energy fluxes. The model requires agro-climatic data that improve the model outputs. Advance Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and Medium Spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imageries were used to estimate the daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation over the entire Nile Delta region in Egypt supported by meteorological data collected from six different weather stations located within the study area. Daily evapotranspiration maps derived from SEBS model show a strong agreement with actual ground-truth data taken from 92 points uniformly distributed all over the study area. Moreover, daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation are strongly correlated. The reliable estimation of daily evapotranspiration supports the decision makers to review the current land use practices in terms of water management, while enabling them to propose proper land use changes.

Keywords: daily evapotranspiration, relative evaporation, SEBS, AATSR, MERIS, Nile Delta

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Authors: Yangming Zhu, Mingming Guo, Xiaozan Wang

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Introduction: The purpose of this study is to integrate functional training into physical education to test the effectiveness of functional training in improving the physical fitness (PF) and sport skills (SS) of female college students. Methods: A total of 54 female college students from East China Normal University were selected for this study (27 in the experimental group and 27 in the control group), and 13 weeks of the experimental intervention was conducted during the semester. During the experimental period, the experimental group was functionally trained for 1 hour per week. The control group performed one-hour weekly sports (such as basketball, football, etc.) as usual. Before and after the experiment, the national students' physical fitness test was used to test the PF of the experimental group and the control group, and the SS of the experimental group and the control group were tested before and after the intervention. Then using SPSS and Excel to organize and analyze the data. Results: The independent sample T-test showed that there was no significant difference in the PF and SS between the experimental group and the control group before the experiment (T PF=71.86, p PF> 0.05, Tₛₛ=82.41,pₛₛ > 0.05); After the experiment, the PF of the experimental group was significantly higher than that of the control group (T Improve=71.86, p Improve < 0.05); after the experiment, the SS of the experimental group was significantly higher than that of the control group (Tₛₛ = 1.31, pₛₛ <0.01) Conclusions: Integrating functional training into physical education can improve the PF of female college students. At the same time, the integration of functional training into physical education can also effectively improve the SS of female college students. Therefore, it is suggested that functional training be integrated into the daily physical education of female college students so as to improve their PF and SS.

Keywords: functional training, physical fitness, sport skills, female college students

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