Search results for: debt management

Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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The basic objective of this paper is twofold. It resides in designing a model for a contingent convertible lease contract that can ensure the financial stability of a company and recover the losses of the parties to the lease in the event of default. It also aims to compare the convertible lease contract on inefficiencies resulting from the debt-overhang problem and asset substitution with other financing policies. From this perspective, this paper highlights the interaction between investments and financing policies in a dynamic model with existing assets and a growth option where the investment cost is financed by a contingent convertible lease and equity. We explore the impact of the contingent convertible lease on the capital structure. We also check the reliability and effectiveness of the use of the convertible lease contract as a means of financing. Findings show that the rental convertible contract with a sufficiently high conversion ratio has less severe inefficiencies arising from risk-shifting and debt overhang than those entailed by risky debt and pure-equity financing. The problem of underinvestment pointed out by Mauer and Ott (2000) and the problem of overinvestment mentioned by Hackbarth and Mauer (2012) may be reduced under contingent convertible lease financing. Our findings predict that the firm value under contingent convertible lease financing increases globally with asset volatility instead of decreasing with business risk. The study reveals that convertible leasing contracts can stand for a reliable solution to ensure the lessee and quickly recover the counterparties of the lease upon default.

Keywords: contingent convertible lease, growth option, debt overhang, risk-shifting, capital structure

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Authors: Afrizon Reskino

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The Article explores how the role of Zakat and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) can enhance corporate values. This research is a descriptive study which aimed to find out how the impact of Zakat and CSR disclosure towards corporate values. Sample taken in this research is the company has entered into the Jakarta Islamic Index, and it estimated to have implemented CSR and also made statements of sources and uses of Zakat taking PT. INCO, PT. Inducement and PT. Semen Gresik. The reasons for selecting of three companies are known from the data and facts every year they always provide significant CSR funds. CSR and charity both have a role and responsibility for the welfare of the peoples. This study found that in 2008, debt-to-equity ratio of PT. INCO approximately 15%. In 2009, It increased to 23%. While Debt-to-equity ratio of PT Semen Gresik increase of 3% to 4%. PT Inducement is weaken from 10% to 7%, but the average debt-to-equity ratio of the three companies has increased.

Keywords: zakat, charity, corporate social responsibility, corporate values

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Authors: Uzoma Emmanuel Igboji

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This paper examines the influence of public debts (external and internal) on economic growth and development in Nigeria from (1980-2015). The study uses aggregate GDP as a proxy for economic growth, per capital income as a proxy for standard of living and Government expenditure on health as a proxy for human capital development, while Foreign Direct Investment, Unemployment rate, and Oil revenue were used as control variables. The study made use of ex-post facto research design with the data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the World Bank database. It adopted a multiple regression analysis of the ordinary least square (OLS) method with the help of E-View version 3.0. The results revealed that external debt has a negative and insignificant effect on GDP, per capital income and human capital development. The study concluded that external debts were being channeled to meet the recurrent expenditures of the nation’s economy at the expense of productive investment that could stimulate growth and poverty alleviation. It, however, recommended that government should ensure that the bulk of the total borrowings are mostly sourced from within the domestic economy so that the repayment of the principal and interest will serve as a crowd in-effect rather that crowd out-effect which in turn further accelerates the country’s economic growth and development.

Keywords: economic growth, external debt, internal debt, Nigeria

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Authors: Samuel Holder

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Mass incarceration in the United States is a human rights issue, not merely a civil rights problem. It is a human rights problem not only because the United States has a high rate of incarceration, but more importantly because of who is jailed, for what purpose they are jailed and, ultimately, the manner in which they are jailed. To sustain the scale of the criminal justice system, one of the darker policies involves a multi-tiered strategy of fee- and fine-collection, targeting, usually, the most vulnerable and poor, many of whom run into the law via small offenses that do not rise to the level of felonies. This paper advances the notion that this debt collection-to-incarceration pipeline is tantamount to a modern-day debtors’ prison system. This article seeks to confront the thorny issue of incarceration via criminal justice debt from a human rights and cause-lawyering position. It will argue that a two-pronged cause-lawyering strategy: the first focused on traditional litigation along constitutional grounds, and the second, an advocacy approach rooted in grassroots campaigns, designed to shift the normative operation and understanding of the rights of marginalized and racialized offenders. Ultimately, the argument suggests that this approach will be effective in combatting the (often highly privatized) criminal justice debt system and bring the roles of 'incapacitation, rehabilitation, deterrence, and retribution' back into the criminal justice legal conversation. Part I contextualizes and historicizes the role of fees, penalties, and fines in American criminal justice. Part II examines the emergence of private industry in the criminal justice system, and its role in the acceleration of profit-driven criminal justice debt collection and incarceration. Part III addresses the failures of the federal and state law and legislation in combatting predatory incarceration and debt collection in the criminal justice system, particularly as waged against the indigent and/or ethnically or racially marginalized. Part IV examines the potential for traditional cause-lawyering litigation along constitutional grounds, using case studies across contexts for illustration. Finally, Part V will review the radical cause-lawyer’s role in the normative struggle in redefining prisoners’ rights and the rights of the marginalized (and racialized) as they intersect at the crossroads of criminal justice debt. This paper will conclude with recommendations for litigation and advocacy, drawing on hypotheses advanced, and informed by case studies from a variety of both national and international jurisdictions.

Keywords: cause-lawyering, criminal justice debt, human rights, judicial fees

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Authors: Petra Buzkova, Milos Kopa

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Reliability of the credit default swap market had been questioned repeatedly during the EMU debt crisis. The article examines whether this development influenced sovereign EMU CDS prices in general. We regress the CDS market price on a model risk neutral CDS price obtained from an adopted reduced form valuation model in the 2009-2013 period. We look for a break point in the single-equation and multi-equation econometric models in order to show the changes in relations between CDS market and model prices. Our results differ according to the risk profile of a country. We find that in the case of riskier countries, the relationship between the market and model price changed when market participants started to question the ability of CDS contracts to protect their buyers. Specifically, it weakened after the change. In the case of less risky countries, the change happened earlier and the effect of a weakened relationship is not observed.

Keywords: chow stability test, credit default swap, debt crisis, reduced form valuation model, seemingly unrelated regression

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE

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Authors: Siti Raihana Hamzah

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This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.

Keywords: global financial crisis, debt, risk-shifting, risk sharing, equity, sukuk, bonds

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Authors: Nomakhosi Tshuma, Carley Chetty

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This study employed panel regression analysis to investigate the financial performance determinants of MTN and Vodacom’s rest of Africa businesses between 2012 to 2020. It used net profit margin, return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE) as financial performance proxies. Financial performance determinants investigated were asset size, debt ratio, liquidity, number of subscribers, and exchange rate. Data relating to exchange rates were obtained from the World Bank website, while financial data and subscriber information were obtained from the companies’ audited financial statements. The study found statistically significant negative relationships between debt and both ROA and net profit, exchange rate and both ROA and net profit, and subscribers and ROE. It also found significant positive relationships between ROE and both asset size and exchange rate. The study recommends strategic options that optimise on the above findings, and these include infrastructure sharing to reduce infrastructure costs and the minimisation of foreign-denominated debt.

Keywords: financial performance, determinants of financial performance, business in Africa, telecommunications industry

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Authors: Pascal Horni, Sandro Fuchs

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In presence of increasing deficits and public debt among OECD countries, the debate on fiscal disciple and mechanisms to constrain public spending policy heated up and gave rise to the institutionalization of fiscal rules. Considering the notions from political economy literature and the therein advocated axiom of maximization of votes, introduction of institutional mechanisms and rules to govern public spending is likely to be coined by electoral motives. While there exists a series of research concerned with the rise of creative accounting in the presence fiscal rules, implementation of accrual government accounting and its impact on the biting of fiscal rules has to authors’ best knowledge never been explored. This paper serves the illumination of the connection between debt break mechanisms and the adoption of accrual public sector accounting standards such as the IPSAS in the interface of political economy in the Swiss context. By explicitly considering the technical accounting dimension, this paper develops an integrated conceptual view on well-established Public Financial Management (PFM) institutions and elaborates how their interdependencies can co-create value with regard to the contemporary challenge of fiscal sustainability. Derivation of this integrated view follows an explorative approach, taking into account expert interviews with director level staff from cantonal finance administrations and policy documents, as well as literature from both research areas – public sector accounting and political economy.

Keywords: accounting, fiscal rules, International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS), public financial management

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Authors: Xiaojing Wang, Ann-Marie Ward, Tony Wall

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The problem of over-indebtedness has increased since deregulation of the banking industry in the 1980s, and now it has become a major problem for most countries in Europe, including Germany. Consumer debt issues have attracted not only the attention of academics but also government and debt counselling institutions. Overall, this research aims to contribute to the knowledge gap regarding the causes of consumer over-indebtedness in Germany and to develop predictive models for assessing consumer over-indebtedness risk at consumer level. The situation of consumer over-indebtedness is serious in Germany. The relatively high level of social welfare support in Germany suggests that consumer debt problems are caused by other factors, other than just over-spending and income volatility. Prior literature suggests that the overall stability of the economy and level of welfare support for individuals from the structural environment contributes to consumers’ debt problems. In terms of cultural influence, the conspicuous consumption theory in consumer behaviour suggests that consumers would spend more than their means to be seen as similar profiles to consumers in a higher socio-economic class. This results in consumers taking on more debt than they can afford, and eventually becoming over-indebted. Studies have also shown that financial literacy is negatively related to consumer over-indebtedness risk. Whilst prior literature has examined structural and cultural influences respectively, no study has taken a collective approach. To address this gap, a model is developed to investigate the association between consumer over-indebtedness and proxies for influences from the structural and cultural environment based on the above theories. The model also controls for consumer demographic characteristics identified as being of influence in prior literature, such as gender and age, and adverse shocks, such as divorce or bereavement in the household. Benefiting from SOEP regional data, this study is able to conduct quantitative empirical analysis to test both structural and cultural influences at a localised level. Using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study data from 2006 to 2016, this study finds that social benefits, financial literacy and the existence of conspicuous consumption all contribute to being over-indebted. Generally speaking, the risk of becoming over-indebted is high when consumers are in a low-welfare community, have little awareness of their own financial situation and always over-spend. In order to tackle the problem of over-indebtedness, countermeasures can be taken, for example, increasing consumers’ financial awareness, and the level of welfare support. By analysing causes of consumer over-indebtedness in Germany, this study also provides new insights on the nature and underlying causes of consumer debt issues in Europe.

Keywords: consumer, debt, financial literacy, socio-economic

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Authors: Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Achsania Hendratmi, Noven Suprayogi, Muhammad Madyan

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Theoretically, Islamic banks in Indonesia and Malaysia not necessarily aware to the interest rate fluctuation, since they don’t use interest-based instruments. Both countries use dual banking system in which Islamic and conventional banking system are exist. This situation makes the profit-sharing level of the Islamic banks will be indirectly affected by the interest rate fluctuation from the conventional banks system. One of the risk management tools for anticipating the risk of interest rate fluctuation is gap management, which has purpose to narrow the difference between Rate Sensitive Asset (RSA) and Rate Sensitive Liability (RSL). This formed gap will give the information about the risk potential in Islamic banks which respect to the fluctuation on the interest rate. This study aims to determine the position of the gap formed at Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia, and analyze the difference in the formation of gap based on the period of sensitivity. This study is a quantitative research with comparative study using sensitivity gap analysis, independent sample t-test, and Mann-Whitney method. The data being used was secondary data from Maturity Profile contained in the Annual Financial Report of Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia from 2011 to 2015 period. The result shows that, cumulatively the formation of the gap was negative gap. From the results of independent sample t-test and Mann-Whitney, the formation of the gap in Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia for a period of sensitivity of ≤ 1 month and >1-3 months show a significant difference, while the period of sensitivity >3-12 months does not. The result shows, even though Indonesia and Malaysia using same dual banking systems, the gap values are different. The difference in debt policy between Indonesia and Malaysia also affecting the gap sensitivity in debt. In can be concluded that each country needs an appropriate gap management to support its Islamic banking performance specifically.

Keywords: assets and liability management, gap management, interest rate risk, Islamic bank

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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Authors: Haitham A. Haloush

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Debtors' imprisonment in Jordan is a problematic issue since it impinges upon required financial guarantees that are presumably offered by debtors on the one hand, and infringes flagrantly the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights on the other hand. Jordan lacks regulatory provisions in this respect and debtors' imprisonment is indirectly exercised in Jordan without giving a special legal attention to this concern. From this perspective, this research reviews the available regulations, standard laws and codes of conduct that might guide the implementation of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights in the Jordanian context. Furthermore, this article will examine the suitability of the Jordanian legal system in providing sufficient protection for debtors. The author argues that there are serious obstacles in this aspect.

Keywords: the Jordanian civil code, the Jordanian execution law, imprisonment for debt, good faith, the Jordanian constitution, the international covenant on civil and political rights

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Authors: Cedric Herring, Loren Henderson, Hayward Derrick Horton, Melvin Thomas

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This paper asks whether business startups benefit from having racially diverse founding ownership teams. Using nationally representative data from the Kauffman Firm Survey, the analysis examines the relationship between the racial diversity of the founding ownership teams of business startups and their net worth, revenue, debt, and profits. The analysis shows that, net of firm characteristics and human capital characteristics, startups with racially diverse founding teams have higher net worth, lower debt, and greater profits than their non-diverse counterparts. The racial diversity of ownership teams is not, however, related to startup firms’ revenues, net of other factors. The implications of these findings are explored.

Keywords: racial diversity, business startups, founding ownership teams, diversity and business performance

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Authors: M. S. Turan, Dimple

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Due to implementation of IFRS by several developed and developing countries, India has no option other than to converge their accounting standards with IFRS. There are over 10,000 listed companies required to implement IFRS in India. IFRS based financial information presented by a company is different from the same information provided by Indian GAAPs. In this study, we have brought out and analyzed the effect of IFRS reporting on the financial statements of selected companies. The results reveal that convergence with IFRS brought prominent positive variations in the values of quick ratio, debt/equity ratio, proprietary ratio and net profit ratio, while negative variation is brought in the values of current ratio, debt to total assets ratio, operating profit ratio, return on capital employed and return on shareholders’ equity ratios. It also presents significant changes in the values of items of balance sheet, profit and loss account and cash flow statement.

Keywords: IFRS, reporting standards, convergence process, results

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Authors: Aida Alemany, Laura Ballester, Ana González-Urteaga

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From 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis the European banking industry has experienced a terrible financial instability situation with increasing levels of CDS spreads (used as a proxy of credit risk). This paper investigates whether volatility transmission channels in European banking markets have changed after three significant crises’ events during the period January 2006 to March 2013. The global financial crisis is characterized by a unidirectional volatility shocks spillovers effect in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element suggesting a market fragmentation between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, whereas retaining the local currency have acted as a firewall. With these findings we are able to shed light on the impact of the different crises on the European banking credit risk dynamics.

Keywords: CDS spreads, credit risk, volatility spillovers, financial crisis

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Authors: German Ricci

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The research aims to analyse the symbolic power of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its relationship with a borrowing country, drawing upon Pierre Bourdieu’s Field Theory. This theory of power, typical of constructivist structuralism, has been minor used in international relations. Thus, selecting this perspective offers a new understanding of how the IMF's power operates and is structured. The IMF makes periodic economic reviews in which the staff evaluates the Government's performance. It also offers “last instance” loans when private external credit is not accessible. This relationship generates great expectations in financial agents because the IMF’s statements indicate the capacity of the Nation-State to meet its payment obligations (or not). Therefore, it is argued that the IMF is a legitimate actor for financial agents concerned about a government facing an economic crisis both for the effects of its immediate economic contribution through loans and the promotion of adjustment programs, helpful to guarantee the payment of the external debt. This legitimacy implies a symbolic power relationship in addition to the already known economic power relationship. Obtaining the IMF's consent implies that the government partially puts its political-economic decisions into play since the monetary policy must be agreed upon with the Fund. This has consequences at the local level. First, it implies that the debtor state must establish a daily relationship with the Fund. This everyday interaction with the Fund influences how officials and policymakers internalize the meaning of political management. On the other hand, if the Government has access to the IMF's seal of approval, the State will be again in a position to re-enter the financial market and go back into debt to face external debt. This means that private creditors increase the chances of collecting the debt and, again, grant credits. Thus, it is argued that the borrowing country submits to the relationship with the IMF in search of the latter's economic and symbolic capital. Access to this symbolic capital has objective and subjective repercussions at the national level that might tend to reproduce the relevance of the financial market and legitimizes the IMF’s intervention during economic crises. The paper has Argentina as its case study, given its historical relationship with the IMF and the relevance of the current indebtedness period, which remains largely unexplored. Argentina’s economy is characterized by recurrent financial crises, and it is the country to which the Fund has lent the most in its entire history. It surpasses more than three times the second, Egypt. In addition, Argentina is currently the country that owes the most to the Fund after receiving the largest loan ever granted by the IMF in 2018, and a new agreement in 2022. While the historical strong association with the Fund culminated in the most acute economic and social crisis in the country’s contemporary history, producing an unprecedented political and institutional crisis in 2001, Argentina still recognized the IMF as the only way out during economic crises.

Keywords: IMF, fields theory, symbolic power, Argentina, Bourdieu

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Authors: Aayushi Lyngwa, Bimal Kishore Sahoo

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The study discusses the relationship between cognitive ability and the level of education attained by the tribal street entrepreneurs on their financial literacy. It is driven by the objective of examining the effect of cognitive ability on financial ability on the one hand and determining the effect of the same on financial literacy on the other. A field experiment was conducted on 203 tribal street vendors in the north-eastern Indian state of Mizoram. This experiment's calculations are conditioned by providing each question scores like math score (cognitive ability), financial score and debt score (financial ability). After that, categories for each of the variables, like math category (math score), financial category (financial score) and debt category (debt score), are generated to run the regression model. Since the dependent variable is ordinal, an ordered logit regression model was applied. The study shows that street vendors' cognitive and financial abilities are highly correlated. It, therefore, confirms that cognitive ability positively affects the financial literacy of street vendors through the increase in attainment of educational levels. It is also found that concerning the type of street vendors, regular street vendors are more likely to have better cognitive abilities than temporary street vendors. Additionally, street vendors with more cognitive and financial abilities gained better monthly profits and performed habits of bookkeeping. The study attempts to draw a particular focus on a set-up which is economically and socially marginalized in the Indian economy. Its finding contributes to understanding financial literacy in an understudied area and provides policy implications through inclusive financial systems solutions in an economy limited to tribal street vendors.

Keywords: financial literacy, education, street entrepreneurs, tribals, cognitive ability, financial ability, ordered logit regression.

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Authors: Javier Sanchez Vidal, Ciarán Mac An Bhaird, Brian Lucey

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This study examines the decision by firm owners not to apply for intermediated debt due to a perception that their application will be rejected. Based on a sample of SMEs in 9 European countries over the period 2009-2011, we examine potential explanatory factors for borrower discouragement, including firm, macroeconomic, regulatory and banking industry variables. Compared with firms that applied for bank loans, discouraged borrowers are smaller, younger, have declining turnover and an increasing debt/assets ratio. Perceived willingness of banks to lend rather than the company’s own credit history is more important to encourage applications. Perceptions of refusal are procyclical and may be self-perpetuating. Increased concentration in the banking sector reduces discouragement, indicating the importance of relationship banking. Transmission of macro effects through the banking system and economic environment may also lead to higher levels of discouragement. A good regulatory scheme is also advisable, either for the lenders or the borrowers (overall the good ones).

Keywords: entrepreneurial finance, discouraged borrowers, banking, financial crisis, eurozone

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Authors: Mahmoud Hassan, Walid Oueslati, Damien Rousseliere

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This paper explores the channels through which energy taxes may affect economic growth, using a simultaneous equations model for a balanced panel data of 31 OECD countries over the 1994–2013 period. The empirical results reveal a negative impact of energy taxes on physical investment in the short and long term. This impact is negatively sensitive to the existence and level of public debt. Additionally, the results show that energy taxes have an indirect effect on human capital through their impact on polluting emissions. The taxes on energy products are able to reduce both the flux and the stock of polluting emissions that have a negative impact on human capital skills in the short and long term. Finally, we found that energy taxes could encourage eco-innovation in the short and long term.

Keywords: energy taxes, economic growth, public debt, simultaneous equations model, multiple imputation

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Timothée Bligny, Clément Codron, Antoine Estruch, Nicolas Girodet, Clément Ginet

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Collateralized Debt Obligations are not as widely used nowadays as they were before 2007 Subprime crisis. Nonetheless there remains an enthralling challenge to optimize cash flows associated with synthetic CDOs. A Gaussian-based model is used here in which default correlation and unconditional probabilities of default are highlighted. Then numerous simulations are performed based on this model for different scenarios in order to evaluate the associated cash flows given a specific number of defaults at different periods of time. Cash flows are not solely calculated on a single bought or sold tranche but rather on a combination of bought and sold tranches. With some assumptions, the simplex algorithm gives a way to find the maximum cash flow according to correlation of defaults and maturities. The used Gaussian model is not realistic in crisis situations. Besides present system does not handle buying or selling a portion of a tranche but only the whole tranche. However the work provides the investor with relevant elements on how to know what and when to buy and sell.

Keywords: synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), credit default swap (CDS), cash flow optimization, probability of default, default correlation, strategies, simulation, simplex

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Authors: Syed Hassan Amjad

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In today’s competitive environment, in order for a company to exist, it must continually improve its Performance by reducing cost, improving quality and productivity, and easy access to market.The purpose of this thesis is to check the firm financial growth and performance and which type of factors affect the firm financial performance. This paper examines the key determinants of firm financial performance. We will differentiate between financial and non financial drivers of the firm financial performance. For the measurement of the firm financial performance there are many ways but all the measure had been taken in aggregation, such as debt, tax rate, operating expenses, earning per share and economic conditions. This study has also been done in developed countries but these researches show that foreign companies face many difficulties inimproving the firm financial performance. In findings we found that marketing expenditures and international diversification had a positive impact on firm valuation. In research also found that a firm's ownership composition, particularly the level of equity ownership by Domestic Financial Institutions and Dispersed Public Shareholders, and the leverage of the firm, tax rate and economic conditions were important factors affecting its financial performance.

Keywords: debt, tax rate, firm financial performance, operating expenses, dividend per share, economic conditions

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Changes in the global risk appetite cause co-movement in emerging market risk premiums. However, the sensitivity of the changes in risk premium to the global risk appetite may vary across emerging markets. In this study, how the global risk appetite affects Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums in emerging markets are analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. The PCA results indicate that the first common component derived by the PCA accounts for almost 76 percent of the common variation in CDS premiums. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over the sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are used to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. The panel regression results point to the significance of government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP in explaining sensitivity. Accordingly, countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: credit default swaps, emerging markets, principal components analysis, sovereign risk

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Risk premium of emerging markets are moving altogether depending on the momentum and shifts in the global risk appetite. However, the magnitudes of these changes in the risk premium of emerging market economies might vary. In this paper, we focus on how global risk factor affects credit default swaps (CDS) premiums of emerging markets using principal component analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. PCA results indicate that the first common component accounts for almost 76% of common variation in CDS premiums of emerging markets. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are employed to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. There are two main macroeconomic variables that affect the sensitivity; government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP. The countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: emerging markets, principal component analysis, credit default swaps, sovereign risk

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Authors: Olivier Mesly

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This article examines the likelihood of deception on the part of borrowers wishing to obtain credit from institutional or private lenders. In our first study, we identify five explanatory variables that account for nearly forty percent of the propensity to act deceitfully: a poor credit history, debt, risky behavior, and to a much lesser degree, irrational behavior and disconnection from the bundle of needs, goals, and preferences. For the second study, we remodeled the initial questionnaire to adapt it to the needs of institutional bankers and borrowers, especially those that engage in money on-line peer-to-peer lending, a growing business fueled by the COVID pandemic. We find that the three key psychological variables that help to indirectly predict the likelihood of deceitful behaviors and possible default on loan reimbursement, i.e., risky behaviors, ir-rationality, and dis-connection, interact with each other to form a loop. This study presents two benefits: first, we provide evidence that it is to some degree possible to tighten control over lending practices. Second, we offer a pragmatic tool: a questionnaire, that lenders can use or adapt to gauge potential borrowers’ deceit, notably by combining their results with standard hard-data measures of risk.

Keywords: bundle of needs, default, debt, deception, risk, peer-to-peer lending

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Authors: Abdul-Nasser El-Kassar, Walid Elgammal, Hisham Jawhar

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This paper studies the determinants of the dividends payout ratio. The factors affecting the dividends payout ratio are to be identified. The study focuses only on the cement and construction industry within the MENA region in an attempt to isolate any incoherent behavior. The factors under consideration are: sales growth, ROE, ROA, ROS, debt to equity ratio, firm size, and free cash flow. Data were collected from official stock exchange markets in addition to annual reports. The study considered all firms that paid dividend in each of the three consecutive years starting from 2010 till 2012. Out of the 123 listed firms that work in cement and construction industry in MENA region, only 19 paid dividends in the three consecutive years 2010-12. Our sample consists of the 19 firms (57 observations) which are selected according to purposive sampling. Moreover, the study uses the homogeneous subcategory within the purposive sampling since only similar firms in the construction industry had been examined. The outcome of the study provides a vital insight into the determinants of dividends payout ratio of companies in MENA region. The results showed that the dividend payout ratio has a strong and positive relationship with return on assets and strong but negative relationship with return on equity. On the other hand, the results detected weak relationships between dividend payout ratio and sale growth, debt to equity ratio, firm size, and free cash flow. The study suggests that board of directors tend to compensate shareholders and minimize the agency cost by distributing a high portion of profits in form of dividends whenever return on equity decreases. Also, when the performance of the firm improves, and hence return on assets increases, boards of directors are more generous in distributing profits.

Keywords: dividends payout ratio, profitability firm size, free cashflow, debt to equity ratio

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Authors: Kishor P. Kadam

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Foreign direct investment policy (FDI) is defined as an investment involving a long term relationship and reflecting a long duration interest and control of a resident entity in the home country (foreign direct investor or parent firm) in the host country. India has been one of the most translucent and open-minded FDI regimes among the emerging and developing economies. There is clear cut mentioned about the sectoral caps for foreign investment. The policy problems that have been identified by time to time surveys as acting as additional hurdles for FDI are laws, regulatory systems and government monopolies that do not have contemporary relevance. Foreign investment policies in the post-reforms period have emphasized greater encouragement and mobilization of non-debt creating private inflows for plunging reliance on debt flows. This paper will focus on how foreign direct investment policy changed from 1990-91 up to now. A time series data of 25 years is used for analysing the policy changes. It is observed that India has more liberal policy. The growth in number of Greenfield investments in India has been more impressive than the number of M&A deals whereas equity capital for incorporated bodies FDI inflows has been increased continuously 2014-15. India has made major changes in FDI Policy, and it has positive impact on economic development.

Keywords: FDI, India, economic development, government

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Authors: Brian Tung, Yam Wing Siu, Tsun Se Cheong

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Purpose: This research aims to explore how personal and environmental factors, especially the socio-economic changes and behavioral changes fostered by the COVID-19 outbreak pandemic, affect the financial vulnerability of a specific segment of people in financial distress. Innovative research methodology of machine learning will be applied to data collected from over 300 local individuals in Hong Kong seeking counseling or similar services in recent years. Results: First, machine learning has found that too much exposure to digital services and information on digitized services may lead to adverse effects on respondents’ financial vulnerability. Second, the improvement in financial literacy level provides benefits to the financially vulnerable group, especially those respondents who have started with a lower level. Third, serious addiction to digital technology can lead to worsened debt servicing ability. Machine learning also has found a strong correlation between debt servicing situations and income-seeking behavior as well as spending behavior. In addition, if the vulnerable groups are able to make appropriate investments, they can reduce the probability of incurring financial distress. Finally, being too active in borrowing and repayment can result in a higher likelihood of over-indebtedness. Conclusion: Findings can be employed in formulating a better counseling strategy for professionals. Debt counseling services can be more preventive in nature. For example, according to the findings, with a low level of financial literacy, the respondents are prone to overspending and unable to react properly to the e-marketing promotion messages pop-up from digital services or even falling into financial/investment scams. In addition, people with low levels of financial knowledge will benefit from financial education. Therefore, financial education programs could include tech-savvy matters as special features.

Keywords: personal finance, digitization of the economy, COVID-19 pandemic, addiction to digital technology, financial vulnerability

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Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

Abstract:

This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS), and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay their debts, and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. The evolution of the proportion of AE countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by the relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by a more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: currency area, early warning system, external imbalances, fiscal vulnerability, GDP growth, public debt

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