Search results for: stochastic reward net

Authors: Guillaume Craveur

Abstract:

This study shows the opportunity to use numerical tools dedicated to Fire Safety Engineering for the Rolling Stock. Indeed, some lawful requirements can now be demonstrated by using numerical tools. The first part of this study presents the use of modelling evacuation tool to satisfy the criteria of evacuation time for the rolling stock. The buildingEXODUS software is used to model and simulate the evacuation of rolling stock. Firstly, in order to demonstrate the reliability of this tool to calculate the complete evacuation time, a comparative study was achieved between a real test and simulations done with buildingEXODUS. Multiple simulations are performed to capture the stochastic variations in egress times. Then, a new study is done to calculate the complete evacuation time of a train with the same geometry but with a different interior architecture. The second part of this study shows some applications of Computational Fluid Dynamics. This work presents the approach of a multi scales validation of numerical simulations of standardized tests with Fire Dynamics Simulations software developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This work highlights in first the cone calorimeter test, described in the standard ISO 5660, in order to characterize the fire reaction of materials. The aim of this process is to readjust measurement results from the cone calorimeter test in order to create a data set usable at the seat scale. In the second step, the modelisation concerns the fire seat test described in the standard EN 45545-2. The data set obtained thanks to the validation of the cone calorimeter test was set up in the fire seat test. To conclude with the third step, after controlled the data obtained for the seat from the cone calorimeter test, a larger scale simulation with a real part of train is achieved.

Keywords: fire safety engineering, numerical tools, rolling stock, multi-scales validation

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Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn

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A precise localization system is crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. The most common method for providing continuous positioning services in outdoor environments is by using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Due to nonline-of-sight, multipath, and weather conditions, GNSS systems do not perform well in dense urban, urban, and suburban areas.This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a novel semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. We also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 39 cm, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 82 cm. That is, numerical results proved that, in comparison to traditional methods, the proposed SRCLoc method can significantly improve positioning performance and reduce radio map construction costs.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

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Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

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The number of inpatient admissions in the UK has been significantly increasing over the past decade. These increases cause bed occupancy rates to exceed the target level (85%) set by the Department of Health in England. Therefore, hospital service managers are struggling to better manage key resource such as beds. On the other hand, this severe demand pressure might lead to confusion in wards. For example, patients can be admitted to the ward of another inpatient specialty due to lack of resources (i.e., bed). This study aims to develop a simulation-optimization model to reallocate the available number of beds in a mid-sized hospital in the UK. A hospital simulation model was developed to capture the stochastic behaviours of the hospital by taking into account the accident and emergency department, all outpatient and inpatient services, and the interactions between each other. A couple of outputs of the simulation model (e.g., average length of stay and revenue) were generated as inputs to be used in the optimization model. An integer linear programming was developed under a number of constraints (financial, demand, target level of bed occupancy rate and staffing level) with the aims of maximizing number of admitted patients. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by taking into account unexpected increases on inpatient demand over the next 12 months. As a result, the major findings of the approach proposed in this study optimally reallocate the available number of beds for each inpatient speciality and reveal that 74 beds are idle. In addition, the findings of the study indicate that the hospital wards will be able to cope with 14% demand increase at most in the projected year. In conclusion, this paper sheds a new light on how best to reallocate beds in order to cope with current and future demand for healthcare services.

Keywords: bed occupancy rate, bed reallocation, discrete event simulation, inpatient admissions, integer linear programming, projected usage

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Authors: Maad Kamal Al-Anni

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This study is about an algorithmic dependence of Artificial Neural Network on Multilayer Perceptron (MPL) pertaining to the classification and clustering presentations for Mobile Adhoc Network vulnerabilities. Moreover, mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is ubiquitous intelligent internetworking devices in which it has the ability to detect their environment using an autonomous system of mobile nodes that are connected via wireless links. Security affairs are the most important subject in MANET due to the easy penetrative scenarios occurred in such an auto configuration network. One of the powerful techniques used for inspecting the network packets is Intrusion Detection System (IDS); in this article, we are going to show the effectiveness of artificial neural networks used as a machine learning along with stochastic approach (information gain) to classify the malicious behaviors in simulated network with respect to different IDS techniques. The monitoring agent is responsible for detection inference engine, the audit data is collected from collecting agent by simulating the node attack and contrasted outputs with normal behaviors of the framework, whenever. In the event that there is any deviation from the ordinary behaviors then the monitoring agent is considered this event as an attack , in this article we are going to demonstrate the  signature-based IDS approach in a MANET by implementing the back propagation algorithm over ensemble-based Traffic Table (TT), thus the signature of malicious behaviors or undesirable activities are often significantly prognosticated and efficiently figured out, by increasing the parametric set-up of Back propagation algorithm during the experimental results which empirically shown its effectiveness  for the ratio of detection index up to 98.6 percentage. Consequently it is proved in empirical results in this article, the performance matrices are also being included in this article with Xgraph screen show by different through puts like Packet Delivery Ratio (PDR), Through Put(TP), and Average Delay(AD).

Keywords: Intrusion Detection System (IDS), Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANET), Back Propagation Algorithm (BPA), Neural Networks (NN)

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Authors: Alexander Otchere Fianko, Clement Yeboah, Evans Oteng

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Prior research concludes that Green Procurement Practices positively drive Organisational Performance. Nonetheless, the nexus and conditions under which Green Procurement Practices contribute to a Firm’s Performance are less understood. The purpose of this quantitative relational study was to examine the relationship between Green Procurement Practices and 500 Firms’ Performances in Ghana. The researchers further seek to draw insights from the resource-based view to conceptualize Green Procurement Practices and Environmental Commitment as resource capabilities to enhance Firm Performance. The researchers used insights from the contingent resource-based view to examine Green Leadership Orientation conditions under which Green Procurement Practices contribute to Firm Performance through Environmental Commitment Capabilities. The study’s conceptual framework was tested on primary data from some firms in the Ghanaian market. PROCESS Macro was used to test the study’s hypotheses. Beyond that, Environmental Commitment Capabilities mediated the association between Green Procurement Practices and the Firm’s Performance. The study further seeks to find out whether Green Leadership Orientation positively moderates the indirect relationship between Green Procurement Practices and Firm Performance through Environmental Commitment Capabilities. While conventional wisdom suggests that improved Green Procurement Practices help improve a Firm’s Performance, this study tested this presumed relationship between Green Procurement Practices and Firm Performance and provides theoretical arguments and empirical evidence to justify how Environmental Commitment Capabilities uniquely and in synergy with Green Leadership Orientation transform this relationship. The study results indicated a positive correlation between Green Procurement Practices and Firm Performance. This result suggests that firms that prioritize environmental sustainability and demonstrate a strong commitment to environmentally responsible practices tend to experience better overall performance. This includes financial gains, operational efficiency, enhanced reputation, and improved relationships with stakeholders. The study's findings inform policy formulation in Ghana related to environmental regulations, incentives, and support mechanisms. Policymakers can use the insights to design policies that encourage and reward firms for their Green Procurement Practices, thereby fostering a more sustainable and environmentally responsible business environment. The findings from such research can influence the design and development of educational programs in Ghana, specifically in fields related to sustainability, environmental management, and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Institutions may consider integrating environmental and sustainability topics into their business and management courses to create awareness and promote responsible practices among future business professionals. Also, the study results can also promote the adoption of environmental accounting practices in Ghana. By recognizing and measuring the environmental impacts and costs associated with business activities, firms can better understand the financial implications of their Green Procurement Practices and develop strategies for improved performance.

Keywords: environmental commitment, firm’s performance, green procurement practice, green leadership orientation

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Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn

Abstract:

A precise localization system is crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. The most common method for providing continuous positioning services in outdoor environments is by using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Due to nonline-of-sight, multipath, and weather conditions, GNSS systems do not perform well in dense urban, urban, and suburban areas.This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a novel semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. We also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 39 cm, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 82 cm. That is, numerical results proved that, in comparison to traditional methods, the proposed SRCLoc method can significantly improve positioning performance and reduce radio map construction costs.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Ignatius Madu

Abstract:

The study aims at assessing the environmental and socioeconomic determinants of climate change resilience in rural Nigeria. This is necessary because researches and development efforts on building climate change resilience of rural areas in developing countries are usually made without the knowledge of the impacts of the inherent rural characteristics that determine resilient capacities of the households. This has, in many cases, led to costly mistakes, delayed responses, inaccurate outcomes, and other difficulties. Consequently, this assessment becomes crucial not only to policymakers and people living in risk-prone environments in rural areas but also to fill the research gap. To achieve the aim, secondary data were obtained from the Annual Abstract of Statistics 2017, LSMS-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture and General Household Survey Panel 2015/2016, and National Agriculture Sample Survey (NASS), 2010/2011.Resilience was calculated by weighting and adding the adaptive, absorptive and anticipatory measures of households variables aggregated at state levels and then regressed against rural environmental and socioeconomic characteristics influencing it. From the regression, the coefficients of the variables were used to compute the impacts of the variables using the Stochastic Regression of Impacts on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) Model. The results showed that the northern States are generally low in resilient indices and are impacted less by the development indicators. The major determining factors are percentage of non-poor, environmental protection, road transport development, landholding, agricultural input, population density, dependency ratio (inverse), household asserts, education and maternal care. The paper concludes that any effort to a successful resilient building in rural areas of the country should first address these key factors that enhance rural development and wellbeing since it is better to take action before shocks take place.

Keywords: climate change resilience; spatial impacts; STIRPAT model; Nigeria

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Authors: Sunantha Teyarachakul

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We consider the worker-learning Newsvendor Model, under the case of lost-sales for unmet demand, with the research objective of proposing the cost-minimization order policy and lot size, scheduled to arrive at the beginning of the selling-period. In general, the New Vendor Model is used to find the optimal order quantity for the perishable items such as fashionable products or those with seasonal demand or short-life cycles. Technically, it is used when the product demand is stochastic and available for the single selling-season, and when there is only a one time opportunity for the vendor to purchase, with possibly of long ordering lead-times. Our work differs from the classical Newsvendor Model in that we incorporate the human factor (specifically worker learning) and its influence over the costs of processing units into the model. We describe this by using the well-known Wright’s Learning Curve. Most of the assumptions of the classical New Vendor Model are still maintained in our work, such as the constant per-unit cost of leftover and shortage, the zero initial inventory, as well as the continuous time. Our problem is challenging in the way that the best order quantity in the classical model, which is balancing the over-stocking and under-stocking costs, is no longer optimal. Specifically, when adding the cost-saving from worker learning to such expected total cost, the convexity of the cost function will likely not be maintained. This has called for a new way in determining the optimal order policy. In response to such challenges, we found a number of characteristics related to the expected cost function and its derivatives, which we then used in formulating the optimal ordering policy. Examples of such characteristics are; the optimal order quantity exists and is unique if the demand follows a Uniform Distribution; if the demand follows the Beta Distribution with some specific properties of its parameters, the second derivative of the expected cost function has at most two roots; and there exists the specific level of lot size that satisfies the first order condition. Our research results could be helpful for analysis of supply chain coordination and of the periodic review system for similar problems.

Keywords: inventory management, Newsvendor model, order policy, worker learning

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Obinna Benedict Duru

Abstract:

This study focuses on the elderly and the challenges that confront them. The elderly are that particular segment of our population who by virtue of the aging process have attained the stage in most cases where they are confronted with the challenges of economic dependency and social marginality. These challenges are as a result of the physical and biological decline occasioned by social myths and realities which portray the elderly as a dependent population whose members could not and should not work and who need social assistance that the younger population is obliged to provide. From the moment of birth to the moment of death, our bodies are constantly changing. We are all enmeshed in the process of growing old, a transition from youthfulness to elderliness. In youth-oriented modern societies like ours, we tend to attach positive importance and significance to the biological changes that occur early in life and define later physical changes in negative terms. Children growing up and young adults receive more attention, greater responsibilities and more legal rights to reward them on their way. But few people are congratulated on getting old. We commiserate with people who are getting old and make jokes about their supposedly physical, mental and biological decline. Wrinkles, loss of weight and vitality are all parts of the aging process. In almost all parts of the world, earlier researches have shown that about fifty percent of the elderly who suffer from stroke, arthritis, senility and other age related diseases are the disengaged and neglected elderly. Rapid technological changes render the knowledge and skills of the elderly obsolete; education is geared toward the young and the generational competition for jobs leads to pressures on the elderly to retire. Control of initial resources are shifted to the middle-aged and older workers are pushed into positions of economic dependency. This study therefore, among other things tend to discover how some government policies have affected the elderly particularly in Africa. To discover the prospects and possibilities of the elderly for a better living. To make a comparison of the advances in healthcare giving made in the advanced western societies to the practice in Sub Saharan Africa etc. The hypotheses of this study include: that the elderly in Sub Saharan Africa are more vulnerable than their counterparts in Europe and America. The elderly are more prone to social isolation, and that the elderly are mostly affected by age-related sickness etc. With a survey method as the research design, and sample size of about 500 respondents,probability sampling technique was used. Data which were analyzed using chi-square and tables were collected through primary and secondary sources. The findings made include: that the elderly suffer pains of old age especially when disengaged from work or social activity. That loss of income condemn the elderly to a life of vegetable existence, and that those who do not have other means of re-integration usually see old age with regret and despair. It is therefore, recommended among other things that social welfare scheme and the process of re-integration at old age be introduced for the non pensionable elderly in Africa.

Keywords: elderly, social isolation, dependency, re-integration

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Authors: Aamna Lawrence, Ashutosh Mishra

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Tremors occur in 60% of the patients who have Multiple Sclerosis (MS), the most common demyelinating disease that affects the central and peripheral nervous system, and are the primary cause of disability in young adults. While pharmacological agents provide minimal benefits, surgical interventions like Deep Brain Stimulation and Thalamotomy are riddled with dangerous complications which make non-invasive electrical stimulation an appealing treatment of choice for dealing with tremors. Hence, we hypothesized that if the non-invasive electrical stimulation parameters (mainly frequency) can be computed by mathematically modeling the nerve fibre to take into consideration the minutest details of the axon morphologies, tremors due to demyelination can be optimally alleviated. In this computational study, we have modeled the random demyelination pattern in a nerve fibre that typically manifests in MS using the High-Density Hodgkin-Huxley model with suitable modifications to account for the myelin. The internode of the nerve fibre in our model could have up to ten demyelinated regions each having random length and myelin thickness. The arrival time of action potentials traveling the demyelinated and the normally myelinated nerve fibre between two fixed points in space was noted, and its relationship with the nerve fibre radius ranging from 5µm to 12µm was analyzed. It was interesting to note that there were no overlaps between the arrival time for action potentials traversing the demyelinated and normally myelinated nerve fibres even when a single internode of the nerve fibre was demyelinated. The study gave us an opportunity to design DC pulses whose frequency of application would be a function of the random demyelination pattern to block only the delayed tremor-causing action potentials. The DC pulses could be delivered to the peripheral nervous system non-invasively by an electrode bracelet that would suppress any shakiness beyond it thus paving the way for wearable neuro-rehabilitative technologies.

Keywords: demyelination, Hodgkin-Huxley model, non-invasive electrical stimulation, tremor

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Authors: Bingxi Huang, Yiqing Li, Marek Morzynski, Bernd R. Noack

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We propose a Kriging-based global optimization method for active flow control with multiple actuation parameters. This method is designed to converge quickly and avoid getting trapped into local minima. We follow the model-free explorative gradient method (EGM) to alternate between explorative and exploitive steps. This facilitates a convergence similar to a gradient-based method and the parallel exploration of potentially better minima. In contrast to EGM, both kinds of steps are performed with Kriging surrogate model from the available data. The explorative step maximizes the expected improvement, i.e., favors regions of large uncertainty. The exploitive step identifies the best location of the cost function from the Kriging surrogate model for a subsequent weight-biased linear-gradient descent search method. To verify the effectiveness and robustness of the improved Kriging-based optimization method, we have examined several comparative test problems of varying dimensions with limited evaluation budgets. The results show that the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms some model-free optimization algorithms like genetic algorithm and differential evolution algorithm with a quicker convergence for a given budget. We have also performed direct numerical simulations of the fluidic pinball (N. Deng et al. 2020 J. Fluid Mech.) on three circular cylinders in equilateral-triangular arrangement immersed in an incoming flow at Re=100. The optimal cylinder rotations lead to 44.0% net drag power saving with 85.8% drag reduction and 41.8% actuation power. The optimal results for active flow control based on this configuration have achieved boat-tailing mechanism by employing Coanda forcing and wake stabilization by delaying separation and minimizing the wake region.

Keywords: direct numerical simulations, flow control, kriging, stochastic optimization, wake stabilization

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Authors: Julius M. Ndambuki, Gislar E. Kifanyi, Samuel N. Odai, Charles Gyamfi

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Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources is a challenging task due to the spatial and temporal variability nature of hydrology as well as hydrogeology of the water storage systems. Surface water-groundwater hydrogeology is highly uncertain; thus it is imperative that this uncertainty is explicitly accounted for, when managing water resources. Various methodologies have been developed and applied by researchers in an attempt to account for the uncertainty. For example, simulation-optimization models are often used for conjunctive water resources management. However, direct application of such an approach in which all realizations are considered at each iteration of the optimization process leads to a very expensive optimization in terms of computational time, particularly when the number of realizations is large. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to introduce and apply an efficient approach referred to as Retrospective Optimization Approximation (ROA) that can be used for optimizing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater over a multiple hydrogeological model simulations. This work is based on stochastic simulation-optimization framework using a recently emerged technique of sample average approximation (SAA) which is a sampling based method implemented within the Retrospective Optimization Approximation (ROA) approach. The ROA approach solves and evaluates a sequence of generated optimization sub-problems in an increasing number of realizations (sample size). Response matrix technique was used for linking simulation model with optimization procedure. The k-means clustering sampling technique was used to map the realizations. The methodology is demonstrated through the application to a hypothetical example. In the example, the optimization sub-problems generated were solved and analysed using “Active-Set” core optimizer implemented under MATLAB 2014a environment. Through k-means clustering sampling technique, the ROA – Active Set procedure was able to arrive at a (nearly) converged maximum expected total optimal conjunctive water use withdrawal rate within a relatively few number of iterations (6 to 7 iterations). Results indicate that the ROA approach is a promising technique for optimizing conjunctive water use of surface water and groundwater withdrawal rates under hydrogeological uncertainty.

Keywords: conjunctive water management, retrospective optimization approximation approach, sample average approximation, uncertainty

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Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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Authors: René A. Sørensen, Søren Skovsen, Peter Christiansen, Henrik Karstoft

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Autonomous agricultural machines act in stochastic surroundings and therefore, must be able to perceive the surroundings in real time. This perception can be achieved using image sensors combined with advanced machine learning, in particular Deep Learning. Deep convolutional neural networks excel in labeling and perceiving color images and since the cost of high-quality RGB-cameras is low, the hardware cost of good perception depends heavily on memory and computation power. This paper investigates the possibility of designing lightweight convolutional neural networks for semantic segmentation (pixel wise classification) with reduced hardware requirements, to allow for embedded usage in autonomous agricultural machines. Using compression techniques, a lightweight convolutional neural network is designed to perform real-time semantic segmentation on an embedded platform. The network is trained on two large datasets, ImageNet and Pascal Context, to recognize up to 400 individual classes. The 400 classes are remapped into agricultural superclasses (e.g. human, animal, sky, road, field, shelterbelt and obstacle) and the ability to provide accurate real-time perception of agricultural surroundings is studied. The network is applied to the case of autonomous grass mowing using the NVIDIA Tegra X1 embedded platform. Feeding case-specific images to the network results in a fully segmented map of the superclasses in the image. As the network is still being designed and optimized, only a qualitative analysis of the method is complete at the abstract submission deadline. Proceeding this deadline, the finalized design is quantitatively evaluated on 20 annotated grass mowing images. Lightweight convolutional neural networks for semantic segmentation can be implemented on an embedded platform and show competitive performance with regards to accuracy and speed. It is feasible to provide cost-efficient perceptive capabilities related to semantic segmentation for autonomous agricultural machines.

Keywords: autonomous agricultural machines, deep learning, safety, visual perception

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Authors: Catia Correia Caeiro, Kun Guo, Daniel Mills

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Despite its growing interest, emotions are still an understudied cognitive process and their origins are currently the focus of much debate among the scientific community. The use of facial expressions as traditional hallmarks of discrete and holistic emotions created a circular reasoning due to a priori assumptions of meaning and its associated appearance-biases. Ekman and colleagues solved this problem and laid the foundations for the quantitative and systematic study of facial expressions in humans by developing an anatomically-based system (independent from meaning) to measure facial behaviour, the Facial Action Coding System (FACS). One way of investigating emotion cognition processes is by applying comparative psychology methodologies and looking at either closely-related species (e.g. chimpanzees) or phylogenetically distant species sharing similar present adaptation problems (analogy). In this study, the domestic dog was used as a comparative animal model to look at facial expressions in social interactions in parallel with human facial expressions. The orofacial musculature seems to be relatively well conserved across mammal species and the same holds true for the domestic dog. Furthermore, the dog is unique in having shared the same social environment as humans for more than 10,000 years, facing similar challenges and acquiring a unique set of socio-cognitive skills in the process. In this study, the spontaneous facial movements of humans and dogs were compared when interacting with hetero- and conspecifics as well as in solitary contexts. In total, 200 participants were examined with FACS and DogFACS (The Dog Facial Action Coding System): coding tools across four different emotionally-driven contexts: a) Happiness (play and reunion), b) anticipation (of positive reward), c) fear (object or situation triggered), and d) frustration (negation of a resource). A neutral control was added for both species. All four contexts are commonly encountered by humans and dogs, are comparable between species and seem to give rise to emotions from homologous brain systems. The videos used in the study were extracted from public databases (e.g. Youtube) or published scientific databases (e.g. AM-FED). The results obtained allowed us to delineate clear similarities and differences on the flexibility of the facial musculature in the two species. More importantly, they shed light on what common facial movements are a product of the emotion linked contexts (the ones appearing in both species) and which are characteristic of the species, revealing an important clue for the debate on the origin of emotions. Additionally, we were able to examine movements that might have emerged for interspecific communication. Finally, our results are discussed from an evolutionary perspective adding to the recent line of work that supports an ancient shared origin of emotions in a mammal ancestor and defining emotions as mechanisms with a clear adaptive purpose essential on numerous situations, ranging from maintenance of social bonds to fitness and survival modulators.

Keywords: comparative and evolutionary psychology, emotion, facial expressions, FACS

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Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

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This abstract focuses on the advancements in mathematical modeling and optimization techniques that play a crucial role in enhancing the efficiency, reliability, and performance of these systems. In this era of rapidly evolving technology, mathematical modeling and optimization offer powerful tools to tackle the complex challenges faced by control, signal processing, and energy systems. This abstract presents the latest research and developments in mathematical methodologies, encompassing areas such as control theory, system identification, signal processing algorithms, and energy optimization. The abstract highlights the interdisciplinary nature of mathematical modeling and optimization, showcasing their applications in a wide range of domains, including power systems, communication networks, industrial automation, and renewable energy. It explores key mathematical techniques, such as linear and nonlinear programming, convex optimization, stochastic modeling, and numerical algorithms, that enable the design, analysis, and optimization of complex control and signal processing systems. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the importance of addressing real-world challenges in control, signal processing, and energy systems through innovative mathematical approaches. It discusses the integration of mathematical models with data-driven approaches, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to enhance system performance, adaptability, and decision-making capabilities. The abstract also underscores the significance of bridging the gap between theoretical advancements and practical applications. It recognizes the need for practical implementation of mathematical models and optimization algorithms in real-world systems, considering factors such as scalability, computational efficiency, and robustness. In summary, this abstract showcases the advancements in mathematical modeling and optimization techniques for control, signal processing, and energy systems. It highlights the interdisciplinary nature of these techniques, their applications across various domains, and their potential to address real-world challenges. The abstract emphasizes the importance of practical implementation and integration with emerging technologies to drive innovation and improve the performance of control, signal processing, and energy.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, optimization, control systems, signal processing, energy systems, interdisciplinary applications, system identification, numerical algorithms

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Authors: Raed KOUTA, José-Alcebiades-Ernesto HLUNGUANE, Eric Châtele

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The search for and exploitation of new fossil energy resources is taking place in the context of the gradual depletion of existing deposits. Despite the adoption of international targets to combat global warming, the demand for fuels continues to grow, contradicting the movement towards an energy-efficient society. The increase in the share of offshore in global hydrocarbon production tends to compensate for the depletion of terrestrial reserves, thus constituting a major challenge for the players in the sector. Through the economic potential it represents, and the energy independence it provides, offshore exploitation is also a challenge for States such as Mozambique, which have large maritime areas and whose environmental wealth must be considered. The exploitation of new reserves on economically viable terms depends on available technologies. The development of deep and ultra-deep offshore requires significant research and development efforts. Progress has also been made in managing the multiple risks inherent in this activity. Our study proposes a reliability approach to develop products and processes designed to live at sea. Indeed, the context of an offshore platform requires highly reliable solutions to overcome the difficulties of access to the system for regular maintenance and quick repairs and which must resist deterioration and degradation processes. One of the characteristics of failures that we consider is the actual conditions of use that are considered 'extreme.' These conditions depend on time and the interactions between the different causes. These are the two factors that give the degradation process its dynamic character, hence the need to develop dynamic reliability models. Our work highlights mathematical models that can explicitly manage interactions between components and process variables. These models are accompanied by numerical resolution methods that help to structure a dynamic reliability approach in a physical and probabilistic context. The application developed makes it possible to evaluate the reliability, availability, and maintainability of a floating storage and unloading platform for liquefied natural gas production.

Keywords: dynamic reliability, offshore plateform, stochastic process, uncertainties

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Authors: Eyup Dogan

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The number of research articles analyzing the integration properties of energy variables has rapidly increased in the energy literature for about a decade. The stochastic behaviors of energy variables are worth knowing due to several reasons. For instance, national policies to conserve or promote energy consumption, which should be taken as shocks to energy consumption, will have transitory effects in energy consumption if energy consumption is found to be stationary in one country. Furthermore, it is also important to know the order of integration to employ an appropriate econometric model. Despite being an important subject for applied energy (economics) and having a huge volume of studies, several known limitations still exist with the existing literature. For example, many of the studies use aggregate energy consumption and national level data. In addition, a huge part of the literature is either multi-country studies or solely focusing on the U.S. This is the first study in the literature that considers a form of energy consumption by sectors at sub-national level. This research study aims at investigating unit root properties of electricity consumption for 12 regions of Turkey by four sectors in addition to total electricity consumption for the purpose of filling the mentioned limits in the literature. In this regard, we analyze stationarity properties of 60 cases . Because the use of multiple unit root tests make the results robust and consistent, we apply Dickey-Fuller unit root test based on Generalized Least Squares regression (DFGLS), Phillips-Perron unit root test (PP) and Zivot-Andrews unit root test with one endogenous structural break (ZA). The main finding of this study is that electricity consumption is trend stationary in 7 cases according to DFGLS and PP, whereas it is stationary process in 12 cases when we take into account the structural change by applying ZA. Thus, shocks to electricity consumption have transitory effects in those cases; namely, agriculture in region 1, region 4 and region 7, industrial in region 5, region 8, region 9, region 10 and region 11, business in region 4, region 7 and region 9, total electricity consumption in region 11. Regarding policy implications, policies to decrease or stimulate the use of electricity have a long-run impact on electricity consumption in 80% of cases in Turkey given that 48 cases are non-stationary process. On the other hand, the past behavior of electricity consumption can be used to predict the future behavior of that in 12 cases only.

Keywords: unit root, electricity consumption, sectoral data, subnational data

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Authors: U. S. Putro, L. Mayangsari, M. Siallagan, N. P. Tjahyani

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National Collective Management Institute (LKMN) in Indonesia stated that legal music products were about 77.552.008 unit while illegal music products were about 22.0688.225 unit in 1996 and this number keeps getting worse every year. Consequently, Indonesia named as one of the countries with high piracy levels in 2005. This study models people decision toward unlawful behavior, music content piracy in particular, using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). The classification of actors in the model constructed in this study are legal consumer, illegal consumer, and neutral consumer. The decision toward piracy among the actors is a manifestation of the social norm which attributes are social pressure, peer pressure, social approval, and perceived prevalence of piracy. The influencing attributes fluctuate depending on the majority of surrounding behavior called social network. There are two main interventions undertaken in the model, campaign and peer influence, which leads to scenarios in the simulation: positively-framed descriptive norm message, negatively-framed descriptive norm message, positively-framed injunctive norm with benefits message, and negatively-framed injunctive norm with costs message. Using NetLogo, the model is simulated in 30 runs with 10.000 iteration for each run. The initial number of agent was set 100 proportion of 95:5 for illegal consumption. The assumption of proportion is based on the data stated that 95% sales of music industry are pirated. The finding of this study is that negatively-framed descriptive norm message has a worse reversed effect toward music piracy. The study discovers that selecting the context-based campaign is the key process to reduce the level of intention toward music piracy as unlawful behavior by increasing the compliance awareness. The context of Indonesia reveals that that majority of people has actively engaged in music piracy as unlawful behavior, so that people think that this illegal act is common behavior. Therefore, providing the information about how widespread and big this problem is could make people do the illegal consumption behavior instead. The positively-framed descriptive norm message scenario works best to reduce music piracy numbers as it focuses on supporting positive behavior and subject to the right perception on this phenomenon. Music piracy is not merely economical, but rather social phenomenon due to the underlying motivation of the actors which has shifted toward community sharing. The indication of misconception of value co-creation in the context of music piracy in Indonesia is also discussed. This study contributes theoretically that understanding how social norm configures the behavior of decision-making process is essential to breakdown the phenomenon of unlawful behavior in music industry. In practice, this study proposes that reward-based and context-based strategy is the most relevant strategy for stakeholders in music industry. Furthermore, this study provides an opportunity that findings may generalize well beyond music piracy context. As an emerging body of work that systematically constructs the backstage of law and social affect decision-making process, it is interesting to see how the model is implemented in other decision-behavior related situation.

Keywords: music piracy, social norm, behavioral decision-making, agent-based model, value co-creation

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Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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The relation between stock price volatility and trading volume represents a controversial issue which has received a remarkable attention over the past decades. In fact, an extensive literature shows a positive relation between price volatility and trading volume in the financial markets, but the causal relationship which originates such association is an open question, from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. In this regard, various models, which can be considered as complementary rather than competitive, have been introduced to explain this relationship. They include the long debated Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH); the Sequential Arrival of Information Hypothesis (SAIH); the Dispersion of Beliefs Hypothesis (DBH); the Noise Trader Hypothesis (NTH). In this work, we analyze whether stock market efficiency can explain the diversity of results achieved during the years. For this purpose, we propose an alternative measure of market efficiency, based on the pointwise regularity of a stochastic process, which is the Hurst–H¨older dynamic exponent. In particular, we model the stock market by means of the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) that displays the property of a time-changing regularity. Mostly, such models have in common the fact that they locally behave as a fractional Brownian motion, in the sense that their local regularity at time t0 (measured by the local Hurst–H¨older exponent in a neighborhood of t0 equals the exponent of a fractional Brownian motion of parameter H(t0)). Assuming that the stock price follows an mBm, we introduce and theoretically justify the Hurst–H¨older dynamical exponent as a measure of market efficiency. This allows to measure, at any time t, markets’ departures from the martingale property, i.e. from efficiency as stated by the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This approach is applied to financial markets; using data for the SP500 index from 1978 to 2017, on the one hand we find that when efficiency is not accounted for, a positive contemporaneous relationship emerges and is stable over time. Conversely, it disappears as soon as efficiency is taken into account. In particular, this association is more pronounced during time frames of high volatility and tends to disappear when market becomes fully efficient.

Keywords: volume–volatility relationship, efficient market hypothesis, martingale model, Hurst–Hölder exponent

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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Authors: Gaoyang Meng, Philip Harrison

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When manufacturing composite laminates, the fibre directions within the laminate are never perfectly straight and inevitably contain some degree of stochastic in-plane waviness or ‘meandering’. In this work we aim to understand the relationship between the degree of meandering of the fibre paths, and the resulting uncertainty in the laminate’s final mechanical properties. To do this, a numerical tool is developed to automatically generate meandering fibre paths in each of the laminate's 8 plies (using Matlab) and after mapping this information into finite element simulations (using Abaqus), the statistical variability of the tensile mechanical properties of a [45°/90°/-45°/0°]s carbon/epoxy (IM7/8552) laminate is predicted. The stiffness, first ply failure strength and ultimate failure strength are obtained. Results are generated by inputting the degree of variability in the fibre paths and the laminate is then examined in all directions (from 0° to 359° in increments of 1°). The resulting predictions are output as flower (polar) plots for convenient analysis. The average fibre orientation of each ply in a given laminate is determined by the laminate layup code [45°/90°/-45°/0°]s. However, in each case, the plies contain increasingly large amounts of in-plane waviness (quantified by the standard deviation of the fibre direction in each ply across the laminate. Four different amounts of variability in the fibre direction are tested (2°, 4°, 6° and 8°). Results show that both the average tensile stiffness and the average tensile strength decrease, while the standard deviations increase, with an increasing degree of fibre meander. The variability in stiffness is found to be relatively insensitive to the rotation angle, but the variability in strength is sensitive. Specifically, the uncertainty in laminate strength is relatively low at orientations centred around multiples of 45° rotation angle, and relatively high between these rotation angles. To concisely represent all the information contained in the various polar plots, rotation-angle dependent Weibull distribution equations are fitted to the data. The resulting equations can be used to quickly estimate the size of the errors bars for the different mechanical properties, resulting from the amount of fibre directional variability contained within the laminate. A longer term goal is to use these equations to quickly introduce realistic variability at the component level.

Keywords: advanced composite laminates, FE simulation, in-plane waviness, tensile properties, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Syed Masood Hussain

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An effective control method, including system-level control and pulse width modulation for quasi-Z-source cascade multilevel inverter (qZS-CMI) based grid-tie photovoltaic (PV) power system is proposed. The system-level control achieves the grid-tie current injection, independent maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for separate PV panels, and dc-link voltage balance for all quasi-Z-source H-bridge inverter (qZS-HBI) modules. A recent upsurge in the study of photovoltaic (PV) power generation emerges, since they directly convert the solar radiation into electric power without hampering the environment. However, the stochastic fluctuation of solar power is inconsistent with the desired stable power injected to the grid, owing to variations of solar irradiation and temperature. To fully exploit the solar energy, extracting the PV panels’ maximum power and feeding them into grids at unity power factor become the most important. The contributions have been made by the cascade multilevel inverter (CMI). Nevertheless, the H-bridge inverter (HBI) module lacks boost function so that the inverter KVA rating requirement has to be increased twice with a PV voltage range of 1:2; and the different PV panel output voltages result in imbalanced dc-link voltages. However, each HBI module is a two-stage inverter, and many extra dc–dc converters not only increase the complexity of the power circuit and control and the system cost, but also decrease the efficiency. Recently, the Z-source/quasi-Z-source cascade multilevel inverter (ZS/qZS-CMI)-based PV systems were proposed. They possess the advantages of both traditional CMI and Z-source topologies. In order to properly operate the ZS/qZS-CMI, the power injection, independent control of dc-link voltages, and the pulse width modulation (PWM) are necessary. The main contributions of this paper include: 1) a novel multilevel space vector modulation (SVM) technique for the single phase qZS-CMI is proposed, which is implemented without additional resources; 2) a grid-connected control for the qZS-CMI based PV system is proposed, where the all PV panel voltage references from their independent MPPTs are used to control the grid-tie current; the dual-loop dc-link peak voltage control.

Keywords: Quzi-Z source inverter, Photo voltaic power system, space vector modulation, cascade multilevel inverter

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Authors: Alica Höpken, Hergen Pargmann

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The resource-efficient planning of the complex production planning processes in the meat industry and the reduction of food waste is a permanent challenge. The complexity of the production planning process occurs in every part of the supply chain, from agriculture to the end consumer. It arises from long and uncertain planning phases. Uncertainties such as stochastic yields, fluctuations in demand, and resource variability are part of this process. In the meat industry, waste mainly relates to incorrect storage, technical causes in production, or overproduction. The high amount of food waste along the complex supply chain in the meat industry could not be reduced by simple solutions until now. Therefore, resource-efficient production planning by conventional methods is currently only partially feasible. The realization of intelligent, automated production planning is basically possible through the application of machine learning algorithms, such as those of reinforcement learning. By applying the adapted design thinking method, machine learning methods (especially reinforcement learning algorithms) are used for the complex production planning process in the meat industry. This method represents a concretization to the application area. A resource-efficient production planning process is made available by adapting the design thinking method. In addition, the complex processes can be planned efficiently by using this method, since this standardized approach offers new possibilities in order to challenge the complexity and the high time consumption. It represents a tool to support the efficient production planning in the meat industry. This paper shows an elegant adaption of the design thinking method to apply the reinforcement learning method for a resource-efficient production planning process in the meat industry. Following, the steps that are necessary to introduce machine learning algorithms into the production planning of the food industry are determined. This is achieved based on a case study which is part of the research project ”REIF - Resource Efficient, Economic and Intelligent Food Chain” supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Germany and the German Aerospace Center. Through this structured approach, significantly better planning results are achieved, which would be too complex or very time consuming using conventional methods.

Keywords: change management, design thinking method, machine learning, meat industry, reinforcement learning, resource-efficient production planning

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Authors: Desplanches Maxime

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Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries for electronic devices is crucial. Data-driven methodologies encounter challenges related to data volume and acquisition protocols, particularly in capturing a comprehensive range of aging indicators. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that integrates an electrochemical model with state-of-the-art data analysis techniques, yielding a comprehensive database. Our methodology involves infusing an aging phenomenon into a Newman model, leading to the creation of an extensive database capturing various aging states based on non-destructive parameters. This database serves as a robust foundation for subsequent analysis. Leveraging advanced data analysis techniques, notably principal component analysis and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding, we extract pivotal information from the data. This information is harnessed to construct a regression function using either random forest or support vector machine algorithms. The resulting predictor demonstrates a 5% error margin in estimating remaining battery life, providing actionable insights for optimizing usage. Furthermore, the database was built from the Newman model calibrated for aging and performance using data from a European project called Teesmat. The model was then initialized numerous times with different aging values, for instance, with varying thicknesses of SEI (Solid Electrolyte Interphase). This comprehensive approach ensures a thorough exploration of battery aging dynamics, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of our predictive model. Of particular importance is our reliance on the database generated through the integration of the electrochemical model. This database serves as a crucial asset in advancing our understanding of aging states. Beyond its capability for precise remaining life predictions, this database-driven approach offers valuable insights for optimizing battery usage and adapting the predictor to various scenarios. This underscores the practical significance of our method in facilitating better decision-making regarding lithium-ion battery management.

Keywords: Li-ion battery, aging, diagnostics, data analysis, prediction, machine learning, electrochemical model, regression

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Authors: Carlos M. Parra, Matthew Sutherland, Ranjita Poudel

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Reduced mental-bandwidth related to low socioeconomic status (low-SES) might lead to impulsivity and risk-taking behavior, which poses as a major hurdle towards asset building (savings) behavior. Understanding the relationship between risk-related personality metrics as well as laboratory risk behavior and real-life savings behavior can help facilitate the development of effective asset building programs, which are vital for mitigating financial vulnerability and income inequality. As such, this study explored the relationship between personality metrics, laboratory behavior in a risky decision-making task and real-life asset building (savings) behaviors among individuals with low-SES from Miami, Florida (FL). Study participants (12 male, 15 female) included racially and ethnically diverse adults (mean age 41.22 ± 12.65 years), with incomplete higher education (18% had High School Diploma, 30% Associates, and 52% Some College), and low annual income (mean $13,872 ± $8020.43). Participants completed eight self-report surveys and played a widely used risky decision-making paradigm called the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). Specifically, participants played three runs of BART (20 trials in each run; total 60 trials). In addition, asset building behavior data was collected for 24 participants who opened and used savings accounts and completed a 6-month savings program that involved monthly matches, and a final reward for completing the savings program without any interim withdrawals. Each participant’s total savings at the end of this program was the main asset building indicator considered. In addition, a new effective use of average pump bet (EUAPB) indicator was developed to characterize each participant’s ability to place winning bets. This indicator takes the ratio of each participant’s total BART earnings to average pump bet (APB) in all 60 trials. Our findings indicated that EUAPB explained more than a third of the variation in total savings among participants. Moreover, participants who managed to obtain BART earnings of at least 30 cents out of their APB, also tended to exhibit better asset building (savings) behavior. In particular, using this criterion to separate participants into high and low EUAPB groups, the nine participants with high EUAPB (mean BART earnings of 35.64 cents per APB) ended up with higher mean total savings ($255.11), while the 15 participants with low EUAPB (mean BART earnings of 22.50 cents per APB) obtained lower mean total savings ($40.01). All mean differences are statistically significant (2-tailed p  .0001) indicating that the relation between higher EUAPB and higher total savings is robust. Overall, these findings can help refine asset building interventions implemented by policy makers and practitioners interested in reducing financial vulnerability among low-SES population. Specifically, by helping identify individuals who are likely to readily take advantage of savings opportunities (such as matched savings programs) and avoiding the stipulation of unnecessary and expensive financial coaching programs to these individuals. This study was funded by J.P. Morgan Chase (JPMC) and carried out by scientists from Florida International University (FIU) in partnership with Catalyst Miami.

Keywords: balloon analogue risk task (BART), matched savings programs, asset building capability, low-SES participants

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Authors: Ram Chandra Sah

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Few years back, naturally a very beautiful country Nepal was facing a lot of problems related to the practice of open defecation (having no toilet) by almost 98% people of the country. Now, the scenario is changed. Government of Nepal set the target of achieving the situation of basic level sanitation (toilets) facilities by 2017 AD for which the Sanitation and Hygiene Master Plan (SHMP) was brought in 2011 AD with the major beauty as institutional set up formation, local formal authority leadership, locally formulated strategic plan; partnership, harmonized and coordinated approach to working; no subsidy or support at a blanket level, community and local institutions or organizations mobilization approaches. Now, the Open Defecation Free (ODF) movement in the country is at a full swing. The Sanitation and Hygiene Master Plan (SHMP) has clearly defined Total Sanitation which is accepted to be achieved if all the households of the related boundary have achieved the 6 indicators such as the access and regular use of toilet(s), regular use of soap and water at the critical moments, regular practice of use of food hygiene behavior, regular practice of use of water hygiene behavior including household level purification of locally available drinking water, maintenance of regular personal hygiene with household level waste management and the availability of the state of overall clean environment at the concerned level of boundary. Nepal has 3158 Village Development Committees (VDC's) in the rural areas. Amarapuri VDC was selected for the purpose of achieving Total Sanitation. Based on the SHMP; different methodologies such as updating of Village Water Sanitation and Hygiene Coordination Committee (V-WASH-CC), Total Sanitation team formation including one volunteer for each indicator, campaigning through settlement meetings, midterm evaluation which revealed the need of ward level 45 (5 for all 9 wards) additional volunteers, ward wise awareness creation with the help of the volunteers, informative notice boards and hoarding boards with related messages at important locations, management of separate waste disposal rings for decomposable and non-decomposable wastes, related messages dissemination through different types of local cultural programs, public toilets construction and management by community level; mobilization of local schools, offices and health posts; reward and recognition to contributors etc. were adopted for achieving 100 % coverage of each indicator. The VDC was in a very worse situation in 2010 with just 50, 30, 60, 60, 40, 30 percent coverage of the respective indicators and became the first VDC of the country declared with Total Sanitation. The expected result of 100 percent coverage of all the indicators was achieved in 2 years 10 months and 19 days. Experiences of Amarapuri were replicated successfully in different parts of the country and many VDC's have been declared with the achievement of Total Sanitation. Thus, Community Mobilized Total Sanitation Movement in Nepal has supported a lot for achieving a Total Sanitation situation of the country with a minimal cost and it is believed that the approach can be very useful for other developing or under developed countries of the world.

Keywords: community mobilized, open defecation free, sanitation and hygiene master plan, total sanitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 183