Search results for: normal prevention probability size

Authors: Abdulrahman Abdulrahman

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When the Manning equation is used, a unique value of normal depth in the uniform flow exists for a given channel geometry, discharge, roughness, and slope. Depending on the value of normal depth relative to the critical depth, the flow type (supercritical or subcritical) for a given characteristic of channel conditions is determined whether or not flow is uniform. There is no general solution of Manning's equation for determining the flow depth for a given flow rate, because the area of cross section and the hydraulic radius produce a complicated function of depth. The familiar solution of normal depth for a rectangular channel involves 1) a trial-and-error solution; 2) constructing a non-dimensional graph; 3) preparing tables involving non-dimensional parameters. Author in this paper has derived semi-analytical solution to Manning's equation for determining the flow depth given the flow rate in rectangular open channel. The solution was derived by expressing Manning's equation in non-dimensional form, then expanding this form using Maclaurin's series. In order to simplify the solution, terms containing power up to 4 have been considered. The resulted equation is a quartic equation with a standard form, where its solution was obtained by resolving this into two quadratic factors. The proposed solution for Manning's equation is valid over a large range of parameters, and its maximum error is within -1.586%.

Keywords: channel design, civil engineering, hydraulic engineering, open channel flow, Manning's equation, normal depth, uniform flow

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Authors: Nevila Bardhi, Joanna Magda, Kolapo Alex-Oni, Slavenka Sedlar, Paromita Hore

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The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH) receives blood lead test results for NYC residents and conducts lead poisoning case investigations for individuals with elevated blood lead levels exposed to lead occupationally and non-occupationally. To (1) improve participant engagement, (2) aid the identification of potential lead sources, and (3) better tailor recommendations to reduce lead exposure, Motivational Interviewing (MI) techniques were incorporated during risk assessment interviews of non-pregnant adults by DOHMH’s Adult Lead Poisoning Prevention (ALP) Program. MI is an evidence-based counselling method used in clinical settings that have been effective in promoting behavior change by resolving ambivalence and enhancing motivation in treating both physiological and psychological health conditions. The incorporation of MI techniques in the ALP risk assessment interview was effective in improving the identification of lead sources for non-pregnant adult cases, thus, allowing for the opportunity to better tailor lead poisoning prevention recommendations. The embedding of MI cues in the ALP risk assessment interview also significantly increased engagement in the interview process, resulting in approximately 50 more interviews conducted per year and a decrease in interview refusals during case investigations. Additionally, the pre-MI interview completion rate was 57%, while the post-MI Interview completion rate was 68%. We recommend MI techniques to be used by other lead poisoning prevention programs during lead poisoning investigations in similar diverse populations.

Keywords: lead poisoning prevention, motivational interviewing, behavior change, lead poisoning risk factors, self-efficacy

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Authors: Sibusiso Buthelezi, Rugira Regis Marie-Modeste, Deliwe Rene Phetlhu

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Introduction: Mother-to-child transmission persists owing to inadequate implementation of prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes, particularly in rural areas. To achieve a target of zero new HIV infection in children born from women living with HIV, the involvement of mothers and caregivers is undeniable. Therefore, there is a need to explore the views of the mothers because of the role they play in their own right when it comes to preventing their children from contracting HIV by consistently adhering to the guidelines of the prevention of mother-to-child transmission programme. Thus, this study sought to explore and describe the perceptions of mothers on their role in the prevention of HIV to their children exposed to HIV and further explore their perceptions of the childcare received in the healthcare facility. Methods: The study was conducted in November-December 2019 in Ngaka Modiri Molema in North West Province in South Africa. A qualitative exploratory, descriptive research design was used. Purposive sampling was used to select the mothers of children exposed to HIV during the mother`s clinic attendance. Data collection was done through semi-structured individual interviews with mothers of children exposed to HIV. Colaizzi`s method of data analysis was used to analyse data in this study. Results: Seven themes emerged from data analysis, namely: health benefits from coming to the healthcare facility, communication, information needs, attitude of healthcare workers, healthcare administration system, the role of a mother, and disclosure of HIV status. Conclusion: This study revealed systematic gaps that exist in the programme, which hinder the childcare services of children exposed to HIV and socio-economically related hindrances. Mothers’ roles, such as exclusive breastfeeding, taking their own medication, and child follow-up visits, remain inadequate. The study findings show that there is a need to develop a contextual-tailored intervention strategy that would improve the implementation of prevention of mother-to-child transmission in rural areas.

Keywords: children exposed to HIV, mothers’ role to prevent MTCT, mothers’ perceptions on childcare, PMTCT in rural areas

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Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

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A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Zeynab Lotfi Aghel

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The determinants of Earnings Response Coefficient (ERC), including firm size, earnings growth, and earnings persistence are studied in this research. These determinants are supposed to be moderator variables that affect ERC and Return Response Coefficient. The research sample contains 82 Iranian listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) from 2001 to 2012. Gathered data have been processed by EVIEWS Software. Results show a significant positive relation between firm size and ERC, and also between earnings growth and ERC; however, there is no significant relation between earnings persistence and ERC. Also, the results show that ERC will be increased by firm size and earnings growth, but there is no relation between earnings persistence and ERC.

Keywords: earnings response coefficient (ERC), return response coefficient (RRC), firm size, earnings growth, earnings persistence

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Authors: Muhammad Ashfaq

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Main theme: This prime focus of this study is on the role of digital technology in crime prevention, with special focus on Cellular Forensic Unit, Capital City Police Peshawar-Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan. Objective(s) of the study: The prime objective of this study is to provide statistics, strategies and pattern of analysis used for crime prevention in Cellular Forensic Unit of Capital City Police Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan. Research Method and Procedure: Qualitative method of research has been used in the study for obtaining secondary data from research wing and Information Technology (IT) section of Peshawar police. Content analysis was the method used for the conduction of the study. This study is delimited to Capital City Police and Cellular Forensic Unit Peshawar-KP, Pakistan. information technologies. Major finding(s): It is evident that the old traditional approach will never provide solutions for better management in controlling crimes. The best way to control crimes and promotion of proactive policing is to adopt new technologies. The study reveals that technology have transformed police more effective and vigilant as compared to traditional policing. The heinous crimes like abduction, missing of an individual, snatching, burglaries and blind murder cases are now traceable with the help of technology. Recommendation(s): From the analysis of the data, it is reflected that Information Technology (IT) expert should be recruited along with research analyst to timely assist and facilitate operational as well as investigation units of police.A mobile locator should be Provided to Cellular Forensic Unit to timely apprehend the criminals .Latest digital analysis software should be provided to equip the Cellular Forensic Unit.

Keywords: crime prevention, digital technology, pakistan, police

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Authors: Bindya Jacob

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The aim of the present study was to assess the quality of catchup growth induced by Oral Nutrition Supplement (ONS), in animal model of growth restriction due to under nutrition. Quality of catch-up growth was assessed by proportion of lean body mass (LBM) and fat mass (FM). Young SD rats were food restricted at 70% of normal caloric intake for 4 weeks; and re-fed at 120% of normal caloric intake for 4 weeks. Refeeding diet had 50% calories from animal diet and 50% from ONS formulated for optimal growth. After refeeding, the quantity and quality of catch-up growth were measured including weight, length, LBM and FM. During nutrient restriction, body weight and length of animals was reduced compared to healthy controls. Both LBM and FM were significantly lower than healthy controls (p < 0.001). Refeeding with ONS resulted in increase of weight and length, with significant catch-up growth compared to baseline (p < 0.001). Detailed examination of body composition showed that the catch-up in body weight was due to proportionate increase of LBM and FM, resulting in a final body composition similar to healthy controls. This data supports the use of well-designed ONS for recovery from growth restriction due to under nutrition, and return to normal growth trajectory characterized by normal ratio of lean and fat mass.

Keywords: catch up growth, body composition, nutrient restriction, healthy growth

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Authors: Dhanesh Sing Das, Bharat Tadikonda Venkata

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Collapsible soils undergo significant volume reduction upon wetting under the pre-existing mechanically applied normal stress (inundation pressure). These soils exhibit a very high strength in air-dried conditions and can carry up to a considerable magnitude of normal stress without undergoing significant volume change. The soil strength is, however, lost upon saturation and results in a sudden collapse of the soil structure under the existing mechanical stress condition. The intrusion of water into the dry deposits of such soil causes ground subsidence leading to damages in the overlying buildings/structures. A study on the wetting-induced volume change behavior of collapsible soils is essential in dealing with the ground subsidence problems in various geotechnical engineering practices. The collapse of loosely compacted Kaolin soil upon wetting under various inundation pressures has been reported in recent studies. The collapse in the Kaolin soil is attributed to the alteration in the soil particle-particle association (fabric) resulting due to the changes in the various inter-particle (microscale) forces induced by the water saturation. The inundation pressure plays a significant role in the fabric evolution during the wetting process, thus controls the collapse potential of the compacted soil. A microstructural study is useful to understand the collapse mechanisms at various pore-fabric levels under different inundation pressure. Kaolin soil compacted to a dry density of 1.25 g/cc was used in this work to study the wetting-induced volume change behavior under different inundation pressures in the range of 10-1600 kPa. The compacted specimen of Kaolin soil exhibited a consistent collapse under all the studied inundation pressure. The collapse potential was observed to be increasing with an increase in the inundation pressure up to a maximum value of 13.85% under 800 kPa and then decreased to 11.7% under 1600 kPa. Microstructural analysis was carried out based on the fabric images and the pore size distributions (PSDs) obtained from FESEM analysis and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP), respectively. The PSDs and the soil fabric images of ‘as-compacted’ specimen and post-collapse specimen under 400 kPa were analyzed to understand the changes in the soil fabric and pores due to wetting. The pore size density curve for the post-collapse specimen was found to be on the finer side with respect to the ‘as-compacted’ specimen, indicating the reduction of the larger pores during the collapse. The inter-aggregate pores in the range of 0.1-0.5μm were identified as the major contributing pore size classes to the macroscopic volume change. Wetting under an inundation pressure results in the reduction of these pore sizes and lead to an increase in the finer pore sizes. The magnitude of inundation pressure influences the amount of reduction of these pores during the wetting process. The collapse potential was directly related to the degree of reduction in the pore volume contributed by these pore sizes.

Keywords: collapse behavior, inundation pressure, kaolin, microstructure

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Authors: Maria Arechavaleta, Mark Halpin

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In the United States, costs of solar energy systems have declined to the point that they are viable options for most consumers. However, there are no consistent procedures for specifying sufficient systems. The factors that must be considered are energy consumption, potential solar energy production, and cost. The traditional method of specifying solar energy systems is based on assumed daily levels of available solar energy and average amounts of daily energy consumption. The mismatches between energy production and consumption are usually mitigated using battery energy storage systems, and energy use is curtailed when necessary. The main consumer decision question that drives the total system cost is how much unserved (or curtailed) energy is acceptable? Of course additional solar conversion equipment can be installed to provide greater peak energy production and extra energy storage capability can be added to mitigate longer lasting low solar energy production periods. Each option increases total cost and provides a benefit which is difficult to quantify accurately. An approach to quantify the cost-benefit of adding additional resources, either production or storage or both, based on the statistical concepts of loss-of-energy probability and expected unserved energy, is presented in this paper. Relatively simple calculations, based on site-specific energy availability and consumption data, can be used to show the value of each additional increment of production or storage. With this incremental benefit-cost information, consumers can select the best overall performance combination for their application at a cost they are comfortable paying. The approach is based on a statistical analysis of energy consumption and production characteristics over time. The characteristics are in the forms of curves with each point on the curve representing an energy consumption or production value over a period of time; a one-minute period is used for the work in this paper. These curves are measured at the consumer location under the conditions that exist at the site and the duration of the measurements is a minimum of one week. While greater accuracy could be obtained with longer recording periods, the examples in this paper are based on a single week for demonstration purposes. The weekly consumption and production curves are overlaid on each other and the mismatches are used to size the battery energy storage system. Loss-of-energy probability and expected unserved energy indices are calculated in addition to the total system cost. These indices allow the consumer to recognize and quantify the benefit (probably a reduction in energy consumption curtailment) available for a given increase in cost. Consumers can then make informed decisions that are accurate for their location and conditions and which are consistent with their available funds.

Keywords: battery energy storage systems, loss of load probability, residential renewable energy, solar energy systems

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Authors: Kavita Bodke

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Structural health monitoring (SHM) is experiencing growth, necessitating the development of distinct methodologies to address its expanding scope effectively. In this study, we developed automatic structure damage identification, which incorporates three unique types of a building’s structural integrity. The first pertains to the presence of fractures within the structure, the second relates to the issue of dampness within the structure, and the third involves corrosion inside the structure. This study employs image classification techniques to discern between intact and impaired structures within structural data. The aim of this research is to find automatic damage detection with the probability of each damage class being present in one image. Based on this probability, we know which class has a higher probability or is more affected than the other classes. Utilizing photographs captured by a mobile camera serves as the input for an image classification system. Image classification was employed in our study to perform multi-class and multi-label classification. The objective was to categorize structural data based on the presence of cracks, moisture, and corrosion. In the context of multi-class image classification, our study employed three distinct methodologies: Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, and CNN. For the task of multi-label image classification, the models employed were Rasnet, Xceptionet, and Inception.

Keywords: SHM, CNN, deep learning, multi-class classification, multi-label classification

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Authors: Dolly Kumari, H. Lhungdim

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Maternal health is one of the crucial health indicators for any country. 5th goal of Millennium Development Goals is also emphasising on improvement of maternal health. Soon after Independence government of India realizing the importance of maternal and child health care services, and took steps to strengthen in 1st and 2nd five year plans. In past decade the other health indicator which is life expectancy at birth has been observed remarkable improvement. But still maternal mortality is high in India and in some states it is observe much higher than national average. Government of India pour lots of fund and initiate National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in 2005 to improve maternal health in country by providing affordable and accessible health care services. Accredited Social Heath Activist (ASHA) is one of the key components of the NRHM. Mainly ASHAs are selected female aged 25-45 years from village itself and accountable for the monitoring of maternal health care for the same village. ASHA are trained to works as an interface between the community and public health system. This study tries to assess the role of ASHA in utilizing maternal health care services and to see the level of awareness about benefits given under JSY scheme and utilization of those benefits by eligible women. For the study concurrent evaluation data from National Rural health Mission (NRHM), initiated by government of India in 2005 has been used. This study is based on 78205 currently married women from 70 different districts of India. Descriptive statistics, chi2 test and binary logistic regression have been used for analysis. The probability of institutional delivery increases by 2.03 times (p<0.001) while if ASHA arranged or helped in arranging transport facility the probability of institutional delivery is increased by 1.67 times (p<0.01) than if she is not arranging transport facility. Further if ASHA facilitated to get JSY card to the pregnant women probability of going for full ANC is increases by 1.36 times (p<0.05) than reference. However if ASHA discuses about institutional delivery and approaches to get register than probability of getting TT injection is 1.88 and 1.64 times (p<0.01) higher than that if she did not discus. Further, Probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 years. The probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 year of age than before 18 years, it is also 1.28 times (p<0.001) and 1.32 times (p<0.001) higher among women have 1 to 8 year of schooling and with 9 and above years of schooling respectively than the women who never attended school. Those women who are working have 1.13 times (p<0.001) higher probability of getting benefits from JSY scheme than not working women. Surprisingly women belongs to wealthiest quintile are .53times (P<0.001) less aware about JSY scheme. Results conclude that work done by ASHA has great influence on maternal health care utilization in India. But results also show that still substantial numbers of needed population are far from utilization of these services. Place of delivery is significantly influenced by referral and transport facility arranged by ASHA.

Keywords: institutional delivery, JSY beneficiaries, referral faculty, public health

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Authors: José de Jesús Rivero Oliva, Jesús Salomón Llanes, Manuel Perdomo Ojeda, Antonio Torres Valle

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Combinatorial explosion is a common problem to both predominant methods for solving fault trees: Minimal Cut Set (MCS) approach and Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). High memory consumption impedes the complete solution of very complex fault trees. Only approximated non-conservative solutions are possible in these cases using truncation or other simplification techniques. The paper proposes a method (CSolv+) for solving complex fault trees, without any possibility of combinatorial explosion. Each individual MCS is immediately discarded after its contribution to the basic events importance measures and the Top gate Upper Bound Probability (TUBP) has been accounted. An estimation of the Top gate Exact Probability (TEP) is also provided. Therefore, running in a computer cluster, CSolv+ will guarantee the complete solution of complex fault trees. It was successfully applied to 40 fault trees from the Aralia fault trees database, performing the evaluation of the top gate probability, the 1000 Significant MCSs (SMCS), and the Fussell-Vesely, RRW and RAW importance measures for all basic events. The high complexity fault tree nus9601 was solved with truncation probabilities from 10-²¹ to 10-²⁷ just to limit the execution time. The solution corresponding to 10-²⁷ evaluated 3.530.592.796 MCSs in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

Keywords: system reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, fault tree analysis, basic events importance measures

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Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jaehyouk Choi

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This study aims to evaluate the effective size and hysteresis characteristics of Circular Hollow Steel (CHS) damper. CHS damper is among steel dampers which are used widely for seismic energy dissipation because they are easy to install, maintain and are low cost. CHS damper dissipates seismic energy through metallic deformation due to the geometrical elasticity of circular shape and fatigue resistance around connection part. After calculating the effective size, which is found to be height to diameter ratio of √ ("3”), nonlinear FE analyses were conducted to evaluate the hysteresis characteristics. To verify the analysis simulation quasi static loading was carried out and the result was compared and satisfactory result was obtained.

Keywords: SS400 steel, circular hollow steel damper, effective size, quasi static loading, FE analysis

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Authors: Rashmi Gupta

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Rewarding stimuli capture attention involuntarily as a result of an association process that develops quickly during value learning, referred to as the reward or value-driven attentional capture. It is essential to compare reward with punishment processing to get a full picture of value-based modulation in visual attention processing. Hence, the present study manipulated both valence/value (reward as well as punishment) and motivational salience (probability of an outcome: high vs. low) together. Series of experiments were conducted, and there were two phases in each experiment. In phase 1, participants were required to learn to associate specific face stimuli with a high or low probability of winning or losing points. In the second phase, these conditioned stimuli then served as a distractor or prime in a speeded letter search task. Faces with high versus low outcome probability, regardless of valence, slowed the search for targets (specifically the left visual field target) and suggesting that the costs to performance on non-emotional cognitive tasks were only driven by motivational salience (high vs. loss) associated with the stimuli rather than the valence (gain vs. loss). It also suggests that the processing of motivationally salient stimuli is right-hemisphere biased. Together, results of these studies strengthen the notion that our visual attention system is more sensitive to affected by motivational saliency rather than valence, which termed here as motivational-driven attentional capture.

Keywords: attention, distractors, motivational salience, valence

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-Il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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For an operator in a nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. The possibility of human errors may be low, but the risk of them would be unimaginably enormous. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze the influence of any factors which may raise the possibility of human errors. During the past decades, not a few research results showed that performance of human operators may vary over time due to lots of factors. Among them, stress is known to be an indirect factor that may cause human errors and result in mental illness. Until now, not a few assessment tools have been developed to assess stress level of human workers. However, it still is questionable to utilize them for human performance anticipation which is related with human error possibility, because they were mainly developed from the viewpoint of mental health rather than industrial safety. Stress level of a person may go up or down with work time. In that sense, if they would be applicable in the safety aspect, they should be able to assess the variation resulted from work time at least. Therefore, this study aimed to compare their applicability for safety purpose. More than 10 kinds of work stress tools were analyzed with reference to assessment items, assessment and analysis methods, and follow-up measures which are known to close related factors with work stress. The results showed that most tools mainly focused their weights on some common organizational factors such as demands, supports, and relationships, in sequence. Their weights were broadly similar. However, they failed to recommend practical solutions. Instead, they merely advised to set up overall counterplans in PDCA cycle or risk management activities which would be far from practical human error prevention. Thus, it was concluded that application of stress assessment tools mainly developed for mental health seemed to be impractical for safety purpose with respect to human performance anticipation, and that development of a new assessment tools would be inevitable if anyone wants to assess stress level in the aspect of human performance variation and accident prevention. As a consequence, as practical counterplans, this study proposed a new scheme for assessment of work stress level of a human operator that may vary over work time which is closely related with the possibility of human errors.

Keywords: human error, human performance, work stress, assessment tool, time-variant, accident prevention

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Authors: Sunday B. Alabi, Edikan P. Felix, Aniediong M. Umo

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Crystal size distribution is of great importance in the sugar factories. It determines the market value of granulated sugar and also influences the cost of production of sugar crystals. Typically, sugar is produced using fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer. The crystallization quality is examined by crystal size distribution at the end of the process which is quantified by two parameters: the average crystal size of the distribution in the mean aperture (MA) and the width of the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV). Lack of real-time measurement of the sugar crystal size hinders its feedback control and eventual optimisation of the crystallization process. An attractive alternative is to use a soft sensor (model-based method) for online estimation of the sugar crystal size. Unfortunately, the available models for sugar crystallization process are not suitable as they do not contain variables that can be measured easily online. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a regression model for estimating the sugar crystal size as a function of input variables which are easy to measure online. This has the potential to provide real-time estimates of crystal size for its effective feedback control. Using 7 input variables namely: initial crystal size (Lo), temperature (T), vacuum pressure (P), feed flowrate (Ff), steam flowrate (Fs), initial super-saturation (S0) and crystallization time (t), preliminary studies were carried out using Minitab 14 statistical software. Based on the existing sugar crystallizer models, and the typical ranges of these 7 input variables, 128 datasets were obtained from a 2-level factorial experimental design. These datasets were used to obtain a simple but online-implementable 6-input crystal size model. It seems the initial crystal size (Lₒ) does not play a significant role. The goodness of the resulting regression model was evaluated. The coefficient of determination, R² was obtained as 0.994, and the maximum absolute relative error (MARE) was obtained as 4.6%. The high R² (~1.0) and the reasonably low MARE values are an indication that the model is able to predict sugar crystal size accurately as a function of the 6 easy-to-measure online variables. Thus, the model can be used as a soft sensor to provide real-time estimates of sugar crystal size during sugar crystallization process in a fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer.

Keywords: crystal size, regression model, soft sensor, sugar, vacuum evaporative crystallizer

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Authors: Oscar Maina Irungu

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Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mtwapa Town, Kilifi County are at high risk of HIV infection. Probability sample surveys to determine HIV prevalence among MSM in Mtwapa are needed to inform prevention and care services. Methods: In 2013, a cross-sectional survey was conducted among MSM aged 18-24 years old, using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in Mtwapa. Consenting MSM were tested for HIV (fingerstick rapid test). Population-based prevalence and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using RDS Analysis Tool (RDSAT). Results: Among 274 MSM, the median age was 20 years (IQR: 19-23 years). Fifty percent of MSM reported not selling sex, while 13.2 % reported sex work as their “main occupation”, and another 28.4 % reported selling sex in the past two months (but not as their main occupation).Overall HIV prevalence was 19.2 % (CI: 12.2-23.6%). HIV prevalence was higher among MSM who reported sex work as their main occupation (28.3%,CI: 12.1-42.3%) or selling sex in the past two months (26.6 %, CI: 17.2-35.7 %),than among MSM who did not sell sex (11.6%,CI: 7.0-18.1%). Conclusion: HIV prevalence among MSM were high than among Kilifi’s general population aged 15-64 years (8.8%; 2010 KAIS) and highest in male sex workers. Health programs need to address concerns and modify services to meet needs of diverse subgroups of MSM. We recommend continued, periodic surveillance to monitor HIV prevalence among MSM in Mtwapa, and expansion to other areas in Kenya.

Keywords: power point, Kenya, homosexuality, sex

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Authors: Dianne Williams

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This study examined the peer/individual domain of the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm (RFPP) to assess the risk and protective factors that impact criminal gang involvement among at-risk males residing in a juvenile home in Trinidad and Tobago. The RFPP allows for the identification of both risk and protective factors in a single, holistic framework to identify the relationship between risk factors, protective factors, and criminal gang involvement among at-risk male adolescents. Findings showed that having anti-social peers was the most significant risk factor associated with criminal gang involvement, while the most significant protective factor was having a positive social attitude. Moreover, while 65% of the boys reported never having been in a gang, 70% reported having hit, struck or used a weapon against someone, while 52% reported being involved in other violent incidents on more than two occasions. This suggests that while involvement with criminal gangs may not be common among this population, predisposing behavioral patterns are present. Results are expected to assist in the development of targeted strategies to reduce the attractiveness of gang membership.

Keywords: risk factor prevention paradigm, risk factors, protective factors, peer/individual domain, gang involvement, at-risk youth, trinidad and tobago, juvenile home

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Authors: K. R. Phaneesh, Anirudh Bhat, G. Mukherjee, K. T. Kashyap

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Extensive Monte Carlo Potts model simulations were performed on 2D square lattice to investigate the effects of simulated higher temperatures effects on grain growth kinetics. A range of simulation temperatures (KTs) were applied on a matrix of size 10002 with Q-state 64, dispersed with a wide range of second phase particles, ranging from 0.001 to 0.1, and then run to 100,000 Monte Carlo steps. The average grain size, the largest grain size and the grain growth exponent were evaluated for all particle fractions and simulated temperatures. After evaluating several growth parameters, the critical temperature for a square lattice, with eight nearest neighbors, was found to be KTs = 0.4.

Keywords: average grain size, critical temperature, grain growth exponent, Monte Carlo steps

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Authors: Maryam Ghavam Sadri, Maryam Shahrooz

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Background: Nowadays the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (Mets) has taken on a growing trend. Studies have shown the relationship between vitamin D deficiency (VDD) status and Mets in children. Also studies have recorded that exerting strategies for vitamin D status improvement can help prevent Mets in children. This study investigated multiple strategies of prevention of Mets resulting from VDD in children. Methods: This review study has been done by using keywords related to the topic and 54 articles were found (2000-2015) that 25 were selected according to the indicators of Mets, supplementation and fortification of foods with vitamin D and attention to children environment and life style. Results: Studies have suggested the correlation between serum levels of vitamin D with waist circumference (p < 0.0001), systolic blood pressure (p=0.01), HOMA-IR (p=0.001) and HDL cholesterol (p < 0.0001). An inverse correlation between serum 25 (OH) D and HOMA-IR (p = 0.006) and insulin (P = 0.002) has been proved in overweight group. Higher HOMASDS and triglycerides found in vitamin D deficient obese children compared to control group without VDD (p=0.04). After supplementation with vitamin D, serum TG concentration decreases significantly (p=0.04), and improves insulin resistance (p=0.02). The prevalence of VDD is associated with time of watching TV (P < 0.01), hours of physical activity per week (P = 0.01), skipping breakfast (P < 0.001) soda intake (P < 0.001), and milk intake per day (P < 0.01). Conclusion: According to the beneficial role of vitamin D in prevention of Mets and proven relationship between serum levels of vitamin D and Mets indicators, we can prevent childhood Mets through the application of appropriate strategies such as supplementation and food fortification with vitamin D and positive changes in children life style with especial attention to physical activity in exposure of sunlight and their environment condition.

Keywords: children, metabolic syndrome, prevention strategies, vitamin D

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Authors: Patarapan Odton

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This study investigates demographic and socio-economic factors of breastfeeding practice, including exclusively breastfeeding among children in Thailand using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS3 and MICS4). Logistic regression models were used to examine the determinants of initial breastfeeding, exclusively breastfeeding, and predominant breastfeeding, using data from women and children section of the survey. For initial breastfeeding, women live in rural area were more likely to start breastfeeding within one day of birth rather than who live in urban area in both round of the surveys. In year 2012, there were significantly higher probabilities of women in rural area started breastfeeding within one hour of birth compare to urban area. Women in southern Thailand have higher probabilities of start breastfeeding within one hour and one day than women in Bangkok and central region. During the year 2005-2006, children aged less than 5 years old lived in rural area have been breastfed higher than children in urban area. Children live in the northeast region were more likely to have been breastfed than the other regions. Only the second wealth quintile group was significant higher probability of ever been breastfed than the poorest group. The findings in the second round of the survey are different from the year 2005-06. In 2012, there was no difference in probability of ever been breastfed among children live in urban and rural area, children in Bangkok and central region were less probability of ever been breastfed than the others.

Keywords: Breastfeeding, Exclusive Breastfeeding, Predominant Breastfeeding, Urban-Rural Difference

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Authors: Lata Rathi, N. R. Mrinal

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Dental Disfigurement is a major problem for a person who is suffering from Malocclusion. Malocclusion, is a technical name given to crowded, irregular or protruded teeth. In the present investigation the Anxiety and Stress are studied with reference to Dental Disfigurement among Adolescents. The 8 SQ Questionnaire (Cattell,1976)was administered to 50 Male(age range 12-20 years) and 50 Female(age range 12-20 years) patients to investigate anxiety and stress with an equal number of normal’s having no dental disfigurement of teeth. Both the groups, experimental and control were matched on age and sex. It was found that experimental group, i. e. orthodontic patients (M=14.34,s= 4.99) have significantly greater anxiety than their normal counterparts (M=11.8,s= 4.20) F=15.04,p=<.01. The sex differences were not observed. However, with reference to stress it was observed that it was significantly greater in orthodontic patients (M=15.11,s= 4.93 )as compared to normal’s (M=12.83, s=4.87). The gender differences on stress were also observed. The females showed greater stress (M=15.06) as compared to males (M=12.88),F=11.55,p.<1. Overall Malocclusion was found to have significant effect on anxiety and stress.

Keywords: anxiety, malocclusion, orthodontic patients, stress

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Authors: K. Doi, T. Nishimura, H. Fujimoto

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The number of people who become visually impaired and do not have sufficient tactile experiences has increased by various disease. Especially, many acquired visually impaired persons due to accidents, disorders, and aging cannot adequately read Braille. It is known that learning Braille requires a great deal of time and the acquisition of various skills. In our previous studies, we reported one of the problems in learning Braille. Concretely, the standard Braille size is too small for Braille beginners. And also we are short of the objective data regarding easily readable Braille size. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct various experiments for evaluating Braille size that would make learning easier for beginners. In this study, for the purpose of investigating easy-to-read conditions of vertical and horizontal dot spacing for beginners, we conducted one Braille reading experiment. In this our experiment, we prepared test pieces by use of our original Braille printer with controlling function of Braille size. We specifically considered Braille beginners with acquired visual impairments who were unfamiliar with Braille. Therefore, ten sighted subjects with no experience of reading Braille participated in this experiment. Size of vertical and horizontal dot spacing was following conditions. Each dot spacing was 2.0, 2.3, 2.5, 2.7, 2.9, 3.1mm. The subjects were asked to read one Braille character with controlled Braille size. The results of this experiment reveal that Braille beginners can read Braille accurately and quickly when both vertical and horizontal dot spacing are 3.1 mm or more. This knowledge will be helpful data in considering Braille size for acquired visually impaired persons.

Keywords: paper-based Braille, vertical and horizontal dot spacing, readability, acquired visual impairment, Braille beginner

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Authors: P. Thepnarintra, S. Nikorn

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Agricultural machinery industry plays an important role in the industrial development especially the production industry of the country. There has been continuing development responding to the higher demand of the production. However, the problem in agricultural machinery production still exists. Thus, the purpose of this research is to investigate problems on fundamental factors of industry based on the entrepreneurs’ point of view. The focus was on the small and medium size industry receiving a factory license typed number 0660 from the Department of Industrial Works. The investigation was on the comparison between the management of the small and medium size agricultural industry in 3 provinces in the central region of Thailand. Population in this study consisted of 189 company managers or managing directors, of which 101 were from the small size and 88 were from the medium size industry. The data were analyzed to find percentage, arithmetic mean, and standard deviation with independent sample T-test at the statistical significance .05. The results showed that the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers in the central region of Thailand reported high problems in every aspect. When compared the problems on basic factors in running the business, it was found that there was no difference statistically at .05 in managing of the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers. However, there was a statistically significant difference between the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers on the aspect of policy and services of the government. The problems reported by the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers were the services on public tap water and the problem on politic and stability of the country.

Keywords: agricultural machinery, manufacturers, problems, on running the business

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: E. A. Amao, O. D. Amao, Z. O. Buzari, T. M. Adelegan, W. A. Tiamiyu, M. O. Yunus

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Signals from in vivo as well as in vitro studies shows that botanicals play notable roles in the treatment, prevention and management of diseases. Use of natural compounds in botanicals has been suggested as potential alternative to conventional therapeutic options. Therefore this study aimed to evaluate the effect of varying levels of turmeric powder (Curcuma longa) on semen characteristics and haematological indices of cocks. Turmeric (C. longa) was obtained from a local market in Saki in Oyo State, Nigeria, in March 2023. The rhizomes were washed, its skin scraped and air-dried for about 10 h, and further oven-dried at 40◦C for 12 h. afterwards, the dried turmeric was ground into powder using a blender. The product was kept in an air-tight container until the period of usage. The experimental material was drenched in cocks (60 cocks assigned into four treatments with three replicates) at 0.0g (T1), 0.05g (T2), 1.00g (T3) and 1.5g (T4) after 2 weeks of acclimatization. Semen volume, sperm cell progressive motility, sperm cell liveability, acrosome integrity, sperm cell concentration and normal sperm cell were evaluated for semen characteristics. Haematological parameters measured were: PCV, RBC, WBC Hb, MCV, MCH and MCHC. Data obtained were subjected to one-way analysis of variance. Semen volume (0.34 – 0.37ml), sperm cell progressive motility (68.33 – 80%), sperm cell liveability (46.66 – 85.00%), acrosome integrity (50.00 – 85%) and normal sperm cell (66.66 – 90%) shows significant difference (p<0.05) in favour cocks on higher level of turmeric powder. While sperm cell concentration (28.33 -40.00 X109/ml) shows no significant difference (p>0.05). PCV (36.00 – 40.33%), RBC (3.55 – 3.74 X106/ml), WBC (19.01 – 19.71 X109/ml), Hb (11.66 – 13.00 dl), MCV (100.53 – 109.53 ⴄ), MCH (32.57 – 35.31pg) and MCHC (32.00 – 32.37%) shows no significant difference (p>0.05). all serum biochemical indices showed significant difference (p<0.05) with animals on the test ingredient showed higher values in respect of the increase in turmeric powder.

Keywords: semen volume, total protein, packed cell volume, turmeric powder, albumin

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Authors: Ammar Alobaidy, Lamees Alsawafi, Malak Almawali, Balqees Alabri, Hajer Alhamrashdi

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Background: There is scarce data in the literature concerning the use of Arabic version neuron psychological cognitive tests in the geriatric age group of the Omani population. Objectives: Our aim is to obtain norms for normal elderly Omanis assessed by The Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's disease (CERAD) neuro psychological battery and to compare these norms with other studies in the literature. Methods: 84 attendants and visitors of in-patients at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, elder than 55 years, were interviewed. All participants were assessed by Dementia Rating Scale & Geriatric Depression Scale to ensure the integrity of their activities of daily living and the absence of depression, respectively. The performance of all participants in the CERAD battery was rated by a single rater to optimize the inter-rater reliability. Results: The cut-point for average performance in CERAD battery is dependent on the age, sex, and level of education and cannot be set as a single cut-point for all elderly Omanis. Conclusion: This study has shown the effect of age, sex, and level of education on the cognitive performance of normal elderly Omanis. The normative data obtained from this study can be utilized to differentiate between the cognitive decline of normal aging and the cognitive impairment due to various neuro cognitive disorders in the elderly Omanis, and probably culturally similar Arabic speaking communities.

Keywords: CERAD, neuropsychological battery, normal aging, elderly Omanis

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Authors: Changqiao Wu, Guoqing Ding, Xin Chen

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In this paper, ways of modeling dynamic measurement systems are discussed. Specially, for linear system with single-input single-output, it could be modeled with shallow neural network. Then, gradient based optimization algorithms are used for searching the proper coefficients. Besides, method with normal equation and second order gradient descent are proposed to accelerate the modeling process, and ways of better gradient estimation are discussed. It shows that the mathematical essence of the learning objective is maximum likelihood with noises under Gaussian distribution. For conventional gradient descent, the mini-batch learning and gradient with momentum contribute to faster convergence and enhance model ability. Lastly, experimental results proved the effectiveness of second order gradient descent algorithm, and indicated that optimization with normal equation was the most suitable for linear dynamic models.

Keywords: dynamic system modeling, neural network, normal equation, second order gradient descent

Procedia PDF Downloads 110