Search results for: conditional tabular GAN

Authors: Lee Yan Nian

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Safety investigation is different from an administrative investigation in that the former is conducted by an independent agency and the purpose of such investigation is to prevent accidents in the future and not to apportion blame or determine liability. Before October 2018, Taiwan railway occurrences were investigated by local supervisory authority. Characteristics of this kind of investigation are that enforcement actions, such as administrative penalty, are usually imposed on those persons or units involved in occurrence. On October 21, 2018, due to a Taiwan Railway accident, which caused 18 fatalities and injured another 267, establishing an agency to independently investigate this catastrophic railway accident was quickly decided. The Taiwan Transportation Safety Board (TTSB) was then established on August 1, 2019 to take charge of investigating major aviation, marine, railway and highway occurrences. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of safety investigations conducted by the TTSB. In this study, the major railway occurrence investigation reports published by the TTSB are used for modeling and analysis. According to the classification of railway occurrences investigated by the TTSB, accident types of Taiwan railway occurrences can be categorized into: derailment, fire, Signal Passed at Danger and others. A Causal Factor Analysis System (CFAS) developed by the TTSB is used to identify the influencing causal factors and their causal relationships in the investigation reports. All terminologies used in the CFAS are equivalent to the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) terminologies, except for “Technical Events” which was added to classify causal factors resulting from mechanical failure. Accordingly, the Bayesian network structure of each occurrence category is established based on the identified causal factors in the CFAS. In the Bayesian networks, the prior probabilities of identified causal factors are obtained from the number of times in the investigation reports. Conditional Probability Table of each parent node is determined from domain experts’ experience and judgement. The resulting networks are quantitatively assessed under different scenarios to evaluate their forward predictions and backward diagnostic capabilities. Finally, the established Bayesian network of derailment is assessed using investigation reports of the same accident which was investigated by the TTSB and the local supervisory authority respectively. Based on the assessment results, findings of the administrative investigation is more closely tied to errors of front line personnel than to organizational related factors. Safety investigation can identify not only unsafe acts of individual but also in-depth causal factors of organizational influences. The results show that the proposed methodology can identify differences between safety investigation and administrative investigation. Therefore, effective intervention strategies in associated areas can be better addressed for safety improvement and future accident prevention through safety investigation.

Keywords: administrative investigation, bayesian network, causal factor analysis system, safety investigation

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Authors: Lei Li, Ping Yin, Haneen Khreis

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Stroke is the second leading cause of death and a third leading cause of death and disability worldwide in 2019. Given the significant role of environmental factors in stroke development and progression, it is essential to investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke occurrence while considering the modifying effects of meteorological variables. This study aimed to evaluate the association between short-term exposure to air pollution and the incidence of stroke subtypes in Shenzhen, China, and to explore the potential interactions of meteorological factors with air pollutants. The study analyzed data from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2014, including 88,214 cases of ischemic stroke and 30,433 cases of hemorrhagic stroke among residents of Shenzhen. Using a time-stratified case–crossover design with conditional quasi-Poisson regression, the study estimated the percentage changes in stroke morbidity associated with short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter less than 10 mm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O₃). A five-day moving average of air pollution was applied to capture the cumulative effects of air pollution. The estimates were further stratified by sex, age, education level, and season. The additive and multiplicative interaction between air pollutants and meteorologic variables were assessed by the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) and adding the interactive term into the main model, respectively. The study found that NO₂ was positively associated with ischemic stroke occurrence throughout the year and in the cold season (November through April), with a stronger effect observed among men. Each 10 μg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of NO₂ was associated with a 2.38% (95% confidence interval was 1.36% to 3.41%) increase in the risk of ischemic stroke over the whole year and a 3.36% (2.04% to 4.69%) increase in the cold season. The harmful effect of CO on ischemic stroke was observed only in the cold season, with each 1 mg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of CO increasing the risk by 12.34% (3.85% to 21.51%). There was no statistically significant additive interaction between individual air pollutants and temperature or relative humidity, as demonstrated by the RERI. The interaction term in the model showed a multiplicative antagonistic effect between NO₂ and temperature (p-value=0.0268). For hemorrhagic stroke, no evidence of the effects of any individual air pollutants was found in the whole population. However, the RERI indicated a statistically additive and multiplicative interaction of temperature on the effects of PM10 and O₃ on hemorrhagic stroke onset. Therefore, the insignificant conclusion should be interpreted with caution. The study suggests that environmental NO₂ and CO might increase the morbidity of ischemic stroke, particularly during the cold season. These findings could help inform policy decisions aimed at reducing air pollution levels to prevent stroke and other health conditions. Additionally, the study provides valuable insights into the interaction between air pollution and meteorological variables, which underscores the need for further research into the complex relationship between environmental factors and health.

Keywords: air pollution, meteorological variables, interactive effect, seasonal pattern, stroke

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Authors: Yih-Wenn Laih

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In recent times, the dependence and co-movement among international financial markets have become stronger than in the past, as evidenced by commentaries in the news media and the financial sections of newspapers. Studying the co-movement between returns in financial markets is an important issue for portfolio management and risk management. The realization of co-movement helps investors to identify the opportunities for international portfolio management in terms of asset allocation and pricing. Since the election of the new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in November 2012, the yen has weakened against the US dollar from the 80 to the 120 level. The policies, known as “Abenomics,” are to encourage private investment through a more aggressive mix of monetary and fiscal policy. Given the close economic relations and competitions among Asia markets, it is interesting to discover the co-movement relations, affected by the depreciation of yen, between stock market of Japan and 5 major Asia stock markets, including China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Specifically, we devote ourselves to measure the co-movement of stock markets between Japan and each one of the 5 Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. To compute the coefficients, return series of each stock market is first fitted by a skewed-t GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) model. Secondly, to measure the dependence structure between matched stock markets, we employ the symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula to calculate the probability density function of paired skewed-t distributions. The joint probability density function is then utilized as the scoring scheme to optimize the sequence alignment by dynamic programming method. Finally, we compute the rank correlation coefficients (Kendall's  and Spearman's ) between matched stock markets based on their aligned sequences. We collect empirical data of 6 stock indexes from Taiwan Economic Journal. The data is sampled at a daily frequency covering the period from January 1, 2013 to July 31, 2015. The empirical distributions of returns indicate fatter tails than the normal distribution. Therefore, the skewed-t distribution and SJC copula are appropriate for characterizing the data. According to the computed Kendall’s τ, Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan, followed by Taiwan, China, and Singapore; the weakest is Hong Kong. On the other hand, the Spearman’s ρ reveals that the strength of co-movement between markets with Japan in decreasing order are Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. We explore the effects of “Abenomics” on Asia stock markets by measuring the co-movement relation between Japan and five major Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. The matched markets are aligned by a hybrid method consisting of GARCH, copula and sequence alignment. Empirical experiments indicate that Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan. The strength of China and Taiwan are better than Singapore. The Hong Kong market has the weakest co-movement relation with Japan.

Keywords: co-movement, depreciation of Yen, rank correlation, stock market

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Authors: Karimova Sitora Yuldashevna

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The August 2021 resurgence of Taliban as a ruling force in Afghanistan once again challenged the global community into dealing with an unprecedentedly unlike-minded government. To express their disapproval of the new regime, Western governments and intergovernmental institutions have suspended their infrastructural projects and other forms of support. Moreover, the Afghan offshore reserves were frozen, and Afghanistan was disconnected from the international financial system, which impeded even independent aid agencies’ work. The already poor provision of aid was then further complicated with political conditionality. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the efficacy of conditional aid policy in the Afghan peacebuilding under Taliban rule and provide recommendations to international donors on further course of action. Arguing that conditionality of aid is a counterproductive factor in the peacebuilding process, this paper employs scholarly literature on peacebuilding alongside reports from International non-governmental organizations INGOs who operate directly in Afghanistan. The existing debate on peacebuilding in Afghanistan revolves around aid as a means of building democratic foundation for achieving peace on communal and national levels and why the previous attempts to do so were unsuccessful. This paper focuses on how to recalibrate the approach to aid provision and peacebuilding in the new reality. In the early 2000s, amid the weak Post-Cold War international will for a profound engagement in the conflict, humanitarian and development aid became the new means of achieving peace. Aid agencies provided resources directly to communities, minimizing the risk of local disputes. Through subsidizing education, governance reforms, and infrastructural projects, international aid accelerated school enrollment, introduced peace education, funded provincial council and parliamentary elections, and helped rebuild a conflict-torn country.When the Taliban seized power, the international community called on them to build an inclusive government based on respect for human rights, particularly girls’ and women’s schooling and work, as a condition to retain the aid flow. As the Taliban clearly failed to meet the demands, development aid was withdrawn. Some key United Nation agencies also refrained from collaborating with the de-facto authorities. However, contrary to the intended change in Talibs’ behavior, such a move has only led to further deprivation of those whom the donors strived to protect. This is because concern for civilians has always been the second priority for the warring parties. This paper consists of four parts. First, it describes the scope of the humanitarian crisis that began in Afghanistan in 2001. Second, it examines the previous peacebuilding attempts undertaken by the international community and the contribution that the international aid had in the peacebuilding process. Third, the paper describes the current regime and its relationships with the international donors. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations for donors who would have to be more realistic and reconsider their priorities. While it is certainly not suggested that the Taliban regime is legitimized internationally, the crisis calls upon donors to be more flexible in collaborating with the de-facto authorities for the sake of the civilians.

Keywords: Afghanistan, international aid, donors, peacebuilding

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Authors: Ayon Mukherjee

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Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs use the available responses to skew the treatment allocation in a clinical trial in towards treatment found at an interim stage to be best for a given patient's covariate profile. Extensive research has been done on various aspects of CARA designs with the patient responses assumed to follow a parametric model. However, ranges of application for such designs are limited in real-life clinical trials where the responses infrequently fit a certain parametric form. On the other hand, robust estimates for the covariate-adjusted treatment effects are obtained from the parametric assumption. To balance these two requirements, designs are developed which are free from distributional assumptions about the survival responses, relying only on the assumption of proportional hazards for the two treatment arms. The proposed designs are developed by deriving two types of optimum allocation designs, and also by using a distribution function to link the past allocation, covariate and response histories to the present allocation. The optimal designs are based on biased coin procedures, with a bias towards the better treatment arm. These are the doubly-adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) and the efficient randomized adaptive design (ERADE). The treatment allocation proportions for these designs converge to the expected target values, which are functions of the Cox regression coefficients that are estimated sequentially. These expected target values are derived based on constrained optimization problems and are updated as information accrues with sequential arrival of patients. The design based on the link function is derived using the distribution function of a probit model whose parameters are adjusted based on the covariate profile of the incoming patient. To apply such designs, the treatment allocation probabilities are sequentially modified based on the treatment allocation history, response history, previous patients’ covariates and also the covariates of the incoming patient. Given these information, an expression is obtained for the conditional probability of a patient allocation to a treatment arm. Based on simulation studies, it is found that the ERADE is preferable to the DBCD when the main aim is to minimize the variance of the observed allocation proportion and to maximize the power of the Wald test for a treatment difference. However, the former procedure being discrete tends to be slower in converging towards the expected target allocation proportion. The link function based design achieves the highest skewness of patient allocation to the best treatment arm and thus ethically is the best design. Other comparative merits of the proposed designs have been highlighted and their preferred areas of application are discussed. It is concluded that the proposed CARA designs can be considered as suitable alternatives to the traditional balanced randomization designs in survival trials in terms of the power of the Wald test, provided that response data are available during the recruitment phase of the trial to enable adaptations to the designs. Moreover, the proposed designs enable more patients to get treated with the better treatment during the trial thus making the designs more ethically attractive to the patients. An existing clinical trial has been redesigned using these methods.

Keywords: censored response, Cox regression, efficiency, ethics, optimal allocation, power, variability

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Authors: David L. Knott, Robert Kingsland, Alistair Hitchon

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The proposed Newcastle Light Rail is a key part of the revitalisation of Newcastle, NSW and will provide a frequent and reliable travel option throughout the city centre, running from Newcastle Interchange at Wickham to Pacific Park in Newcastle East, a total of 2.7 kilometers in length. Approximately one-third of the route, along Hunter and Scott Streets, is subject to potential shallow underground mine workings. The extent of mining and seams mined is unclear. Convicts mined the Yard Seam and overlying Dudley (Dirty) Seam in Newcastle sometime between 1800 and 1830. The Australian Agricultural Company mined the Yard Seam from about 1831 to the 1860s in the alignment area. The Yard Seam was about 3 feet (0.9m) thick, and therefore, known as the Yard Seam. Mine maps do not exist for the workings in the area of interest and it was unclear if both or just one seam was mined. Information from 1830s geological mapping and other data showing shaft locations were used along Scott Street and information from the 1908 Royal Commission was used along Hunter Street to develop an investigation program. In addition, mining was encountered for several sites to the south of the alignment at depths of about 7 m to 25 m. Based on the anticipated depths of mining, it was considered prudent to assess the potential for sinkhole development on the proposed alignment and realigned underground utilities and to obtain approval for the work from Subsidence Advisory NSW (SA NSW). The assessment consisted of a desktop study, followed by a subsurface investigation. Four boreholes were drilled along Scott Street and three boreholes were drilled along Hunter Street using HQ coring techniques in the rock. The placement of boreholes was complicated by the presence of utilities in the roadway and traffic constraints. All the boreholes encountered the Yard Seam, with conditions varying from unmined coal to an open void, indicating the presence of mining. The geotechnical information obtained from the boreholes was expanded by using various downhole techniques including; borehole camera, borehole sonar, and downhole geophysical logging. The camera provided views of the rock and helped to explain zones of no recovery. In addition, timber props within the void were observed. Borehole sonar was performed in the void and provided an indication of room size as well as the presence of timber props within the room. Downhole geophysical logging was performed in the boreholes to measure density, natural gamma, and borehole deviation. The data helped confirm that all the mining was in the Yard Seam and that the overlying Dudley Seam had been eroded in the past over much of the alignment. In summary, the assessment allowed the potential for sinkhole subsidence to be assessed and a mitigation approach developed to allow conditional approval by SA NSW. It also confirmed the presence of mining in the Yard Seam, the depth to the seam and mining conditions, and indicated that subsidence did not appear to have occurred in the past.

Keywords: downhole investigation techniques, drilling, mine subsidence, yard seam

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Authors: Kathrin F. Schneider, Luis Xavier Unda Galarza

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In our modern world, few are the areas that are not permeated by digitalization: we use digital tools for work, study, entertainment, and daily life. Since technology changes rapidly, skills must adapt to the new reality, which gives a dynamic dimension to the set of skills necessary for people's academic, professional, and personal success. The concept of 21st-century digital skills, which includes skills such as collaboration, communication, digital literacy, citizenship, problem-solving, critical thinking, interpersonal skills, creativity, and productivity, have been widely discussed in the literature. Digital transformation has opened many economic opportunities for entrepreneurs for the development of their products, financing possibilities, and product distribution. One of the biggest advantages is the reduction in cost for the entrepreneur, which has opened doors not only for the entrepreneur or the entrepreneurial team but also for corporations through intrapreneurship. The development of students' general literacy level and their digital competencies is crucial for improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the learning process, as well as for students' adaptation to the constantly changing labor market. The digital economy allows a free substantial increase in the supply share of conditional and also innovative products; this is mainly achieved through 5 ways to reduce costs according to the conventional digital economy: search costs, replication, transport, tracking, and verification. Digital entrepreneurship worldwide benefits from such achievements. There is an expansion and democratization of entrepreneurship thanks to the use of digital technologies. The digital transformation that has been taking place in recent years is more challenging for developing countries, as they have fewer resources available to carry out this transformation while offering all the necessary support in terms of cybersecurity and educating their people. The degree of digitization (use of digital technology) in a country and the levels of digital literacy of its people often depend on the economic level and situation of the country. Telefónica's Digital Life Index (TIDL) scores are strongly correlated with country wealth, reflecting the greater resources that richer countries can contribute to promoting "Digital Life". According to the Digitization Index, Ecuador is in the group of "emerging countries", while Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay are in the group of "countries in transition". According to Herrera Espinoza et al. (2022), there are startups or digital ventures in Ecuador, especially in certain niches, but many of the ventures do not exceed six months of creation because they arise out of necessity and not out of the opportunity. However, there is a lack of relevant research, especially empirical research, to have a clearer vision. Through a self-report questionnaire, the digital skills of students will be measured in an Ecuadorian private university, according to the skills identified as the six 21st-century skills. The results will be put to the test against the variable of the intention to start a digital venture measured using the theory of planned behavior (TPB). The main hypothesis is that high digital competence is positively correlated with the intention to start digital entrepreneurship.

Keywords: new literacies, digital transformation, 21st century skills, theory of planned behavior, digital entrepreneurship

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Tsirekidze M., Aprasidze T.

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Introduction: The problem of dissocial behavior is at the heart of the social sciences and psychiatry; however, it should be noted that its psychiatric aspect is little studied, and some issues of the problem are still controversial. This is complicated by the diversity of terminological concepts in defining “dissocial behavior”, “behavioral disorder”, “abnormal behavior”, “deviant behavior”, “delinquent behavior”, etc. In literature, there is no comprehensive definition of the essence of dissociative behavior. Numerous attempts to systematize dissociative disorders should also be considered unsatisfactory, which is primarily related to the lack of solid criteria for defining this group of disorders. According to the clinical classification, dissocial behavior is divided into psychotic and non-psychotic forms. Such differentiation is conditional in nature since it is not always possible to draw precise, clear distinctions between these forms, and in addition, there is a transition of a behavior disorder or so-called intermediate forms. One group of authors distinguishes two main forms of deviant behavior in terms of both theoretical and practical significance - non-pathological and pathological. In recent years, especially, the non-pathological form of behavior disorder has become topical. It refers to a large group of forms of deviant behavior, the emergence of which is associated with psychologically full-fledged reactions of children and adolescents to stressful situations and extreme conditions. According to the authors, its concept is understandable-it is difficult to draw a line between psychologically understandable reactions and psychogenically induced reactive states. In addition, the concept of "normal" child and adolescent is, to some extent, a vague concept, as in medicine, any definition of the norm. From a practical (more precisely, pragmatic) point of view, the term "abnormal behavioral disorder" undoubtedly makes sense, especially for the purpose of forensic psychiatric examination. Non-pathological deviation mainly includes transient situational reactions, microsocial-pedagogical backwardness, and character accentuation.Deviant behavior was predominantly manifested in a non-pathological form, which, in our opinion, is due to the difficult socio-economic situation of the country, moral-ethical deprivation, and expressed frustration. By itself, society is an indicator of deviation. Add to this situation complicated factors such as micro-social-pedagogical leave, unfavorable family environment, and parenting defects. Consideration is also given to the connection of acceptable deviation with the personal structural features of the adolescent. Aim: The topic of our discussion is the dissocial behavior of the non-psychotic register. Methods: We surveyed 120 adolescents with deviant behaviors. 61% of them were diagnosed with various neuropsychiatric disorders. Results: Abnormal forms of deviant behavior were observed in 13%, and non-pathological forms in -69%. A combination of non-pathological and pathological forms was present in 10% of cases. In the case of non-pathological deviation, microsocial-pedagogical acceptance was revealed in 62%, character accentuation in 22%; during the pathological forms, pathological reactions were observed in 21%, and abnormal formation of the person -21%. Conclusion: It should be emphasized that in case of any of the above defects, if the so-called family psychosis, and medical and pedagogical habilitation measures for the adolescent, it is quite possible to prevent the abnormal development of the child's personality, correct his character, regulate behavior and develop positive labor-social relations.

Keywords: dissocial personality, deviant behavior, dissocial, delinquent behavior

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Jocelyne Uwibambe, Ange Thaina Ndizeye, Dinah Ishimwe, Emmanuel Mugabo Byakagaba

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Background: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the use of modern contraceptive methods among women, including adolescents, is still low despite the desire to avoid pregnancy. In addition, countries have set a minimum age for marriage, which is 21 years for most countries, including Rwanda. The Rwandan culture, to a certain extent, and religion, to a greater extent, however, limit the freedom of young women to use contraceptive services because it is wrongly perceived as an encouragement for premarital sexual intercourse. In the end, what doesn’t change is that denying access to contraceptives to either male or female adolescents does not translate into preventing them from sexual activities, hence leading to an ever-increasing number of unwanted pregnancies, possible STIs, HIV, Human Papilloma Virus, and subsequent unsafe abortion followed by avoidable expensive complications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perception of healthcare providers regarding contraceptive use among adolescents. Methodology: This was a qualitative study. Interviews were done with different healthcare providers, including doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists, through focused group discussions and in-depth interviews, then the audio was transcribed, translated and thematic coding was done. Results: This study explored the perceptions of healthcare workers regarding the provision of modern contraception to adolescents in Rwanda. The findings revealed that while healthcare providers had a good understanding of family planning and contraception, they were hesitant to provide contraception to adolescents. Sociocultural beliefs played a significant role in shaping their attitudes, as many healthcare workers believed that providing contraception to adolescents would encourage promiscuous behavior and go against cultural norms. Religious beliefs also influenced their reluctance, with some healthcare providers considering premarital sex and contraception as sinful. Lack of knowledge among parents and adolescents themselves was identified as a contributing factor to unwanted pregnancies, as inaccurate information from peers and social media influenced risky sexual behavior. Conditional policies, such as the requirement for parental consent, further hindered adolescents' access to contraception. The study suggested several solutions, including comprehensive sexual and reproductive health education, involving multiple stakeholders, ensuring easy access to contraception, and involving adolescents in policymaking. Overall, this research highlights the need for addressing sociocultural beliefs, improving healthcare providers' knowledge, and revisiting policies to ensure adolescents' reproductive health rights are met in Rwanda. Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of enhancing healthcare provider training, expanding access to modern contraception, implementing community-based interventions, and strengthening policy and programmatic support for adolescent contraception. Addressing these challenges is crucial for improving the provision of family planning services to adolescents in Rwanda and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to sexual and reproductive health. Collaborative efforts involving various stakeholders and organizations can contribute to overcoming these barriers and promoting the well-being of adolescents in Rwanda.

Keywords: adolescent, health care providers, contraception, reproductive health

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Authors: Daniela Stephanie Kuenstle

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Complex industries such as banking or insurance experience slow growth in mobile sales. While today’s mobile applications are sophisticated and enable location based and personalized services, consumers prefer online or even face-to-face services to complete complex transactions. A possible reason for this reluctance is that the provided service within transactional mobile applications (apps) does not adequately correspond to users’ needs. Therefore, this paper examines the impact of the user context on mobile service (m-service) in m-commerce. Motivated by the potential which context-sensitive m-services hold for the future, the impact of temporal variations as a dimension of user context, on m-service design is examined. In particular, the research question asks: Does consumer urgency function as a determinant of m-service composition in transactional apps by moderating the relation between m-service type and m-service success? Thus, the aim is to explore the moderating influence of urgency on m-service types, which includes Technology Mediated Service and Technology Generated Service. While mobile applications generally comprise features of both service types, this thesis discusses whether unexpected urgency changes customer preferences for m-service types and how this consequently impacts the overall m-service success, represented by purchase intention, loyalty intention and service quality. An online experiment with a random sample of N=1311 participants was conducted. Participants were divided into four treatment groups varying in m-service types and urgency level. They were exposed to two different urgency scenarios (high/ low) and two different app versions conveying either technology mediated or technology generated service. Subsequently, participants completed a questionnaire to measure the effectiveness of the manipulation as well as the dependent variables. The research model was tested for direct and moderating effects of m-service type and urgency on m-service success. Three two-way analyses of variance confirmed the significance of main effects, but demonstrated no significant moderation of urgency on m-service types. The analysis of the gathered data did not confirm a moderating effect of urgency between m-service type and service success. Yet, the findings propose an additive effects model with the highest purchase and loyalty intention for Technology Generated Service and high urgency, while Technology Mediated Service and low urgency demonstrate the strongest effect for service quality. The results also indicate an antagonistic relation between service quality and purchase intention depending on the level of urgency. Although a confirmation of the significance of this finding is required, it suggests that only service convenience, as one dimension of mobile service quality, delivers conditional value under high urgency. This suggests a curvilinear pattern of service quality in e-commerce. Overall, the paper illustrates the complex interplay of technology, user variables, and service design. With this, it contributes to a finer-grained understanding of the relation between m-service design and situation dependency. Moreover, the importance of delivering situational value with apps depending on user context is emphasized. Finally, the present study raises the demand to continue researching the impact of situational variables on m-service design in order to develop more sophisticated m-services.

Keywords: mobile consumer behavior, mobile service design, mobile service success, self-service technology, situation dependency, user-context sensitivity

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Authors: Leonid Zhukov, Dmytro Petrenko

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Optical thermometry has no alternative in many cases of industrial most effective continuous temperature control. Classical optical thermometry technologies can be used on available for pyrometers controlled objects with stable radiation characteristics and transmissivity of the intermediate medium. Without using temperature corrections, it is possible in the case of a “black” body for energy pyrometry and the cases of “black” and “grey” bodies for spectral ratio pyrometry or with using corrections – for any colored bodies. Consequently, with increasing the number of operating waves, optical thermometry possibilities to reduce methodical errors significantly expand. That is why, in recent 25-30 years, research works have been reoriented on more perfect spectral (multicolor) thermometry technologies. There are two physical material substances, i.e., substance (controlled object) and electromagnetic field (thermal radiation), to be operated in optical thermometry. Heat is transferred by radiation; therefore, radiation has the energy, entropy, and temperature. Optical thermometry was originating simultaneously with the developing of thermal radiation theory when the concept and the term "radiation temperature" was not used, and therefore concepts and terms "conditional temperatures" or "pseudo temperature" of controlled objects were introduced. They do not correspond to the physical sense and definitions of temperature in thermodynamics, molecular-kinetic theory, and statistical physics. Launched by the scientific thermometric society, discussion about the possibilities of temperature measurements of objects, including colored bodies, using the temperatures of their radiation is not finished. Are the information about controlled objects transferred by their radiation enough for temperature measurements? The positive and negative answers on this fundamental question divided experts into two opposite camps. Recent achievements of spectral thermometry develop events in her favour and don’t leave any hope for skeptics. This article presents the results of investigations and developments in the field of spectral thermometry carried out by the authors in the Department of Thermometry and Physics-Chemical Investigations. The authors have many-year’s of experience in the field of modern optical thermometry technologies. Innovative technologies of optical continuous temperature control have been developed: symmetric-wave, two-color compensative, and based on obtained nonlinearity equation of spectral emissivity distribution linear, two-range, and parabolic. Тhe technologies are based on direct measurements of physically substantiated and proposed by Prof. L. Zhukov, radiation temperatures with the next calculation of the controlled object temperature using this radiation temperatures and corresponding mathematical models. Тhe technologies significantly increase metrological characteristics of continuous contactless and light-guide temperature control in energy, metallurgical, ceramic, glassy, and other productions. For example, under the same conditions, the methodical errors of proposed technologies are less than the errors of known spectral and classical technologies in 2 and 3-13 times, respectively. Innovative technologies provide quality products obtaining at the lowest possible resource-including energy costs. More than 600 publications have been published on the completed developments, including more than 100 domestic patents, as well as 34 patents in Australia, Bulgaria, Germany, France, Canada, the USA, Sweden, and Japan. The developments have been implemented in the enterprises of USA, as well as Western Europe and Asia, including Germany and Japan.

Keywords: emissivity, radiation temperature, object temperature, spectral thermometry

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Authors: Vanita Singh

Abstract:

In developing countries, there are conflicting political agendas; policy makers have to prioritize issues from a list of issues competing for the limited resources. Thus, it is imperative to understand how some issues gain attention, and others lose in the policy circles. Multiple-Streams Theory of Kingdon (1984) is among the influential theories that help to understand the public policy process and is utilitarian for health policy makers to understand how certain health issues emerge on the policy agendas. The issue of maternal mortality was long standing in India and was linked with high birth rate thus the focus of maternal health policy was on family planning since India’s independence. However, a paradigm shift was noted in the maternal health policy in the year 1992 with the launch of Safe Motherhood Programme and then in the year 2005, when the agenda of maternal health policy became universalizing institutional deliveries and phasing-out of Traditional Birth Attendants (TBAs) from the health system. There were many solutions proposed by policy communities other than universalizing of institutional deliveries, including training of TBAs and improving socio-economic conditions of pregnant women. However, Government of India favored medical community, which was advocating for the policy of universalizing institutional delivery, and neglected the solutions proposed by other policy communities. It took almost 15 years for the advocates of institutional delivery to transform their proposed solution into a program - the Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), a safe-motherhood program promoting institutional delivery through cash incentives to pregnant women. Thus, the case of safe motherhood policy in India is worth studying to understand how certain issues/problems gain political attention and how advocacy work in policy circles. This paper attempts to understand the factors that favored the agenda of safe-motherhood in the policy circle in India, using John Kingdon’s Multiple-Stream model of agenda-setting. Through document analysis and literature review, the paper traces the evolution of safe motherhood program and maternal health policy. The study has used open source documents available on the website of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, media reports (Times of India Archive) and related research papers. The documents analyzed include National health policy-1983, National Health Policy-2002, written reports of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Department, National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) document, documents related to Janani Suraksha Yojana and research articles related to maternal health programme in India. The study finds that focusing events and credible indicators coupled with media attention has the potential to recognize a problem. The political elites favor clearly defined and well-accepted solutions. The trans-national organizations affect the agenda-setting process in a country through conditional resource provision. The closely-knit policy communities and political entrepreneurship are required for advocating solutions high on agendas. The study has implications for health policy makers in identifying factors that have the potential to affect the agenda-setting process for a desired policy agenda and identify the challenges in generating political priorities.

Keywords: agenda-setting, focusing events, Kingdon’s model, safe motherhood program India

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Authors: Jen Wang, Wei-Chia Hsu, Zih-Sin Wang, Ching-Ping Chu, Bo-Shiou Guo

Abstract:

In the late 19th century, the Jinguashi ore deposit in northern Taiwan was discovered, and accompanied with flourishing mining activities. However, tons of contaminants including heavy metals, sulfur dioxide, and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) were released to surroundings and caused environmental problems. Site T was one of copper smelter located on the coastal hill near Jinguashi ore deposit. In over ten years of operation, variety contaminants were emitted that it polluted the surrounding soil and groundwater quality. In order to exhaust fumes produced from smelting process, three stacks were built along the hill behind the factory. The sediment inside the stacks contains high concentration of heavy metals such as arsenic, lead, copper, etc. Moreover, soil around the discarded stacks suffered a serious contamination when deposition leached from the ruptures of stacks. Consequently, Site T (including the factory and its surroundings) was declared as a pollution remediation site that visiting the site and land-use activities on it are forbidden. However, the natural landscape and cultural attractions of Site T are spectacular that it attracts a lot of visitors annually. Moreover, land resources are extremely precious in Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) is actively promoting the contaminated land revitalization policy. Therefore, this study took Site T as case study for brownfield revitalization planning to the limits of activate and remediate the natural resources. Land-use suitability analysis and risk mapping were applied in this study to make appropriate risk management measures and redevelopment plan for the site. In land-use suitability analysis, surrounding factors into consideration such as environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land use, contamination, culture, and landscapes were collected to assess the development of each area; health risk mapping was introduced to show the image of risk assessments results based on the site contamination investigation. According to land-use suitability analysis, the site was divided into four zones: priority area (for high-efficiency development), secondary area (for co-development with priority area), conditional area (for reusing existing building) and limited area (for Eco-tourism and education). According to the investigation, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), heavy metals and TPH were considered as target contaminants while oral, inhalation and dermal would be the major exposure pathways in health risk assessment. In accordance with health risk map, the highest risk was found in the southwest and eastern side. Based on the results, the development plan focused on zoning and land use. Site T was recommended be divides to public facility zone, public architectonic art zone, viewing zone, existing building preservation zone, historic building zone, and cultural landscape zone for various purpose. In addition, risk management measures including sustained remediation, extinguish exposure and administration management are applied to ensure particular places are suitable for visiting and protect the visitors’ health. The consolidated results are corroborated available by analyzing aspects of law, land acquired method, maintenance and management and public participation. Therefore, this study has a certain reference value to promote the contaminated land revitalization policy in Taiwan.

Keywords: brownfield revitalization, land-use suitability analysis, health risk map, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 184