Search results for: Integrated service provisioning
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2106

Search results for: Integrated service provisioning

1116 A Decision Support System for Predicting Hospitalization of Hemodialysis Patients

Authors: Jinn-Yi Yeh, Tai-Hsi Wu

Abstract:

Hemodialysis patients might suffer from unhealthy care behaviors or long-term dialysis treatments. Ultimately they need to be hospitalized. If the hospitalization rate of a hemodialysis center is high, its quality of service would be low. Therefore, how to decrease hospitalization rate is a crucial problem for health care. In this study we combined temporal abstraction with data mining techniques for analyzing the dialysis patients' biochemical data to develop a decision support system. The mined temporal patterns are helpful for clinicians to predict hospitalization of hemodialysis patients and to suggest them some treatments immediately to avoid hospitalization.

Keywords: Hemodialysis, Temporal abstract, Data mining, Healthcare quality.

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1115 Supportability Analysis in LCI Environment

Authors: Dragan Vasiljevic, Ana Horvat

Abstract:

Starting from the basic pillars of the supportability analysis this paper queries its characteristics in LCI (Life Cycle Integration) environment. The research methodology contents a review of modern logistics engineering literature with the objective to collect and synthesize the knowledge relating to standards of supportability design in e-logistics environment. The results show that LCI framework has properties which are in fully compatibility with the requirement of simultaneous logistics support and productservice bundle design. The proposed approach is a contribution to the more comprehensive and efficient supportability design process. Also, contributions are reflected through a greater consistency of collected data, automated creation of reports suitable for different analysis, as well as the possibility of their customization according with customer needs. In addition to this, convenience of this approach is its practical use in real time. In a broader sense, LCI allows integration of enterprises on a worldwide basis facilitating electronic business.

Keywords: E-logistics, integrated product development, standards, supportability analysis.

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1114 Knowledge Management: The Need for a Total Knowledge Transfer Model to Diffuse Innovation of the Public Health Workforce

Authors: Qatawneh H., Yousef S., Shirvani H.

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to propose a model designed to achieve Total Knowledge Transfer in the public health sector. The Total Knowledge Transfer Model integrated four essential organizational factors which have been under examined in totality in the literature. The research design was inductive in nature and used a case study for accomplishing the research objectives. The researcher investigated the factors that created a base to design a framework for total knowledge transfer in the public health sector. The results of this study are drawn from a fairly large sample in only two hospitals. A further research can be conducted to cover more responses from a wider health sector. The Total Knowledge Transfer Model is essential to improve the transfer and application of total common health knowledge.

Keywords: Health Care, Knowledge Management, Knowledge Transfer.

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1113 Analysis and Design of Security Oriented Communication System

Authors: Jiří Barta

Abstract:

The paper deals with results of a project “Interoperability Workplaces to Support Teaching of Security Management in a Computer Network". This project is focused on the perspectives and possibilities of "new approaches" to education, training and crisis communication of rescue teams in the Czech Republic. It means that common technologies considering new perspectives are used to educate selected members of crisis management. The main part concentrates on possibilities of application of new technology and computer-aided tools to education and training of Integrated Rescue System teams.This project uses the COST principle for the creation of specialized centers and for all communication between these workplaces.

Keywords: Communication of Crisis Management, Information System, Interoperability, specializedcenter, Security Oriented Information System.

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1112 Integrating the Theory of Constraints and Six Sigma in Manufacturing Process Improvement

Authors: Kai Jin, Hyder Abdul-Razzak, Yousri Elkassabgi, Hong Zhou, Aaron Herrera

Abstract:

Six Sigma is a well known discipline that reduces variation using complex statistical tools and the DMAIC model. By integrating Goldratts-s Theory of Constraints, the Five Focusing Points and System Thinking tools, Six Sigma projects can be selected where it can cause more impact in the company. This research defines an integrated model of six sigma and constraint management that shows a step-by-step guide using the original methodologies from each discipline and is evaluated in a case study from the production line of a Automobile engine monoblock V8, resulting in an increase in the line capacity from 18.7 pieces per hour to 22.4 pieces per hour, a reduction of 60% of Work-In-Process and a variation decrease of 0.73%.

Keywords: Constraint Management, Manufacturing Process Improvement, Six Sigma, System Thinking.

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1111 A New Framework to Model a Secure E-Commerce System

Authors: A. Youseef, F. Liu

Abstract:

The existing information system (IS) developments methods are not met the requirements to resolve the security related IS problems and they fail to provide a successful integration of security and systems engineering during all development process stages. Hence, the security should be considered during the whole software development process and identified with the requirements specification. This paper aims to propose an integrated security and IS engineering approach in all software development process stages by using i* language. This proposed framework categorizes into three separate parts: modelling business environment part, modelling information technology system part and modelling IS security part. The results show that considering security IS goals in the whole system development process can have a positive influence on system implementation and better meet business expectations.

Keywords: Business Process Modelling (BPM), Information System Security, Software Development Process, Requirement Engineering.

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1110 An Ontology for Smart Learning Environments in Music Education

Authors: Konstantinos Sofianos, Michail Stefanidakis

Abstract:

Nowadays, despite the great advances in technology, most educational frameworks lack a strong educational design basis. E-learning has become prevalent, but it faces various challenges such as student isolation and lack of quality in the learning process. An intelligent learning system provides a student with educational material according to their learning background and learning preferences. It records full information about the student, such as demographic information, learning styles, and academic performance. This information allows the system to be fully adapted to the student’s needs. In this paper, we propose a framework and an ontology for music education, consisting of the learner model and all elements of the learning process (learning objects, teaching methods, learning activities, assessment). This framework can be integrated into an intelligent learning system and used for music education in schools for the development of professional skills and beyond.

Keywords: Intelligent learning systems, e-learning, music education, ontology, semantic web.

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1109 Vision-based Network System for Industrial Applications

Authors: Taweepol Suesut, Arjin Numsomran, Vittaya Tipsuwanporn

Abstract:

This paper presents the communication network for machine vision system to implement to control systems and logistics applications in industrial environment. The real-time distributed over the network is very important for communication among vision node, image processing and control as well as the distributed I/O node. A robust implementation both with respect to camera packaging and data transmission has been accounted. This network consists of a gigabit Ethernet network and a switch with integrated fire-wall is used to distribute the data and provide connection to the imaging control station and IEC-61131 conform signal integration comprising the Modbus TCP protocol. The real-time and delay time properties each part on the network were considered and worked out in this paper.

Keywords: Distributed Real-Time Automation, Machine Visionand Ethernet.

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1108 Modeling Jordan University of Science and Technology Parking Using Arena Program

Authors: T. Qasim, M. Alqawasmi, M. Hawash, M. Betar, W. Qasim

Abstract:

Over the last decade, the over population that has happened in urban areas has been reflecting on the services that various local institutions provide to car users in the form of car parks, which is becoming a daily necessity in our lives. This study focuses on car parks at Jordan University of Science and Technology, in Irbid, Jordan, to understand the university parking needs. Data regarding arrival and departure times of cars and the parking utilization were collected, to find various options that the university can implement to solve and develop an efficient car parking system. Arena software was used to simulate a parking model. This model allows measuring the different solutions that solve the parking problem at Jordan University of Science and Technology.

Keywords: Car park, modeling, service time, simulation.

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1107 A Planning Model for Evacuation in Building

Authors: Hsin-Yun Lee, Hao-Hsi Tseng

Abstract:

Previous studies mass evacuation route network does not fully reflect the step-by-step behavior and evacuees make routing decisions. Therefore, they do not work as expected when applied to the evacuation route planning is valid. This article describes where evacuees may have to make a direction to select all areas were identified as guiding points to improve evacuation routes network. This improved route network can be used as a basis for the layout can be used to guide the signs indicate that provides the required evacuation direction. This article also describes that combines simulation and artificial bee colony algorithm to provide the proposed routing solutions, to plan an integrated routing mode. The improved network and the model used is the cinema as a case study to assess the floor. The effectiveness of guidance solution in the total evacuation time is significant by verification.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony, Evacuation, Simulation.

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1106 Decoupled Scheduling in Meta Environment

Authors: Ponsy R.K. Sathia Bhama, Thamarai Selvi Soma Sundaram, R. Sivakama Sundari, R. Bakiyalakshmi, K. Thamizharasi

Abstract:

Grid scheduling is the process of mapping grid jobs to resources over multiple administrative domains. Traditionally, application-level schedulers have been tightly integrated with the application itself and were not easily applied to other applications. This design is generic that decouples the scheduler core (the search procedure) from the application-specific (e.g. application performance models) and platform-specific (e.g. collection of resource information) components used by the search procedure. In this decoupled approach the application details are not revealed completely to broker, but customer will give the application to resource provider for execution. In a decoupled approach, apart from scheduling, the resource selection can be performed independently in order to achieve scalability.

Keywords: Meta, grid scheduling, application-level scheduler, decouple, scheduler core and performance model.

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1105 Homomorphic Conceptual Framework for Effective Supply Chain Strategy (HCEFSC) within Operational Research (OR) with Sustainability and Phenomenology

Authors: Al-Salamin Hussain, Elias O. Tembe

Abstract:

Supply chain (SC) is an operational research (OR) approach and technique which acts as catalyst within central nervous system of business today. Without SC, any type of business is at doldrums, hence entropy. SC is the lifeblood of business today because it is the pivotal hub which provides imperative competitive advantage. The paper present a conceptual framework dubbed as Homomorphic Conceptual Framework for Effective Supply Chain Strategy (HCEFSC).The term Homomorphic is derived from abstract algebraic mathematical term homomorphism (same shape) which also embeds the following mathematical application sets: monomorphisms, isomorphism, automorphisms, and endomorphism. The HCFESC is intertwined and integrated with wide and broad sets of elements.

Keywords: Automorphisms, Homomorphism, Monomorphisms, Supply Chain.

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1104 Modeling Thermo-Photo-Voltaic Selective Emitter Based on a Semi-Transparent Emitter with Integrated Narrow Band-Pass Pre-Filter

Authors: F. Stake

Abstract:

This work is a parametric study combining simple and well known optical theories. These simple theories are arranged to form part of one answer to the question: “Can a semi-transparent Thermo-Photo-Voltaic (TPV) emitter have an optical extinction spectrum so much greater than its optical absorption spectrum that it becomes its own band-pass pre-filter, and if so, how well might it be expected to suppress light of undesired wavelengths?” In the report, hypothetical materials and operating temperatures will be used for comparative analyses only. Thermal emission properties of these hypothetical materials were created using two openly available FORTRAN programs. Results indicate that if using highly transparent materials it may be possible to create a thermal emitter that is its own band-pass pre-filter.

Keywords: Christensen effect, DISORT, index of refraction, scattering.

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1103 Post Earthquake Volunteer Learning That Build Up Caring Learning Communities

Authors: Naoki Okamura

Abstract:

From a perspective of moral education, this study has examined the experiences of a group of college students who volunteered in disaster areas after the magnitude 9.0 Earthquake, which struck the Northeastern region of Japan in March, 2011. The research, utilizing the method of grounded theory, has uncovered that most of the students have gone through positive changes in their development of moral and social characters, such as attaining deeper sense of empathy and caring personalities. The study expresses, in identifying the nature of those transformations, that the importance of volunteer work should strongly be recognized by the colleges and universities in Japan, in fulfilling their public responsibility of creating and building learning communities that are responsible and caring.

Keywords: Moral development, moral education, service learning, volunteer learning.

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1102 Measuring Innovative and Entrepreneurial Networks Performance

Authors: Luís Farinha, João J. Ferreira

Abstract:

Nowadays innovation represents a challenge crucial to remaining globally competitive. This study seeks to develop a conceptual model aimed at measuring the dynamic interactions of the triple/quadruple helix, balancing innovation and entrepreneurship initiatives as pillars of regional competitiveness – the Regional Helix Scoreboard (RHS). To this aim, different strands of literature are identified according to their focus on specific regional competitiveness governance mechanisms. We put forward an overview of the state-of-the-art of research and is duly assessed in order to develop and propose a framework of analysis that enables an integrated approach in the context of collaborative dynamics. We conclude by presenting the RHS for the study of regional competitiveness dynamics, which integrates and associates different backgrounds and identifies a number of key performance indicators for research challenges.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, KPIs, innovation, performance measurement, regional competitiveness, regional helix scoreboard.

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1101 Optimal Facility Layout Problem Solution Using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Maricar G. Misola, Bryan B. Navarro

Abstract:

Facility Layout Problem (FLP) is one of the essential problems of several types of manufacturing and service sector. It is an optimization problem on which the main objective is to obtain the efficient locations, arrangement and order of the facilities. In the literature, there are numerous facility layout problem research presented and have used meta-heuristic approaches to achieve optimal facility layout design. This paper presented genetic algorithm to solve facility layout problem; to minimize total cost function. The performance of the proposed approach was verified and compared using problems in the literature.

Keywords: Facility Layout Problem, Genetic Algorithm, Material Handling Cost, Meta-heuristic Approach.

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1100 An Integrated Framework for the Realtime Investigation of State Space Exploration

Authors: Jörg Lassig, Stefanie Thiem

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is the introduction to a unified optimization framework for research and education. The OPTILIB framework implements different general purpose algorithms for combinatorial optimization and minimum search on standard continuous test functions. The preferences of this library are the straightforward integration of new optimization algorithms and problems as well as the visualization of the optimization process of different methods exploring the search space exclusively or for the real time visualization of different methods in parallel. Further the usage of several implemented methods is presented on the basis of two use cases, where the focus is especially on the algorithm visualization. First it is demonstrated how different methods can be compared conveniently using OPTILIB on the example of different iterative improvement schemes for the TRAVELING SALESMAN PROBLEM. A second study emphasizes how the framework can be used to find global minima in the continuous domain.

Keywords: Global Optimization Heuristics, Particle Swarm Optimization, Ensemble Based Threshold Accepting, Ruin and Recreate

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1099 Innovative Methods of Improving Train Formation in Freight Transport

Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

Abstract:

The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: Train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology.

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1098 Extension of the Client-Centric Approach under Small Buffer Space

Authors: Hsiang-Fu Yu, Yu-Chan Hsu, Chun Fang, Hao-Yun Yang

Abstract:

Periodic broadcast is a cost-effective solution for large-scale distribution of popular videos because this approach guarantees constant worst service latency, regardless of the number of video requests. An essential periodic broadcast method is the client-centric approach (CCA), which allows clients to use smaller receiving bandwidth to download broadcast data. An enhanced version, namely CCA++, was proposed to yield a shorter waiting time. This work further improves CCA++ in reducing client buffer requirements. The new scheme decreases the buffer requirements by as much as 52% when compared to CCA++. This study also provides an analytical evaluation to demonstrate the performance advantage, as compared with particular schemes.

Keywords: Periodic broadcast, client-centric approach, buffer space, multimedia communications.

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1097 Photocatalytic Cleaning Performance of Air Filters for a Binary Mixture

Authors: Lexuan Zhong, Chang-Seo Lee, Fariborz Haghighat, Stuart Batterman, John C. Little

Abstract:

Ultraviolet photocatalytic oxidation (UV-PCO) technology has been recommended as a green approach to health indoor environment when it is integrated into mechanical ventilation systems for inorganic and organic compounds removal as well as energy saving due to less outdoor air intakes. Although much research has been devoted to UV-PCO, limited information is available on the UV-PCO behavior tested by the mixtures in literature. This project investigated UV-PCO performance and by-product generation using a single and a mixture of acetone and MEK at 100 ppb each in a single-pass duct system in an effort to obtain knowledge associated with competitive photochemical reactions involved in. The experiments were performed at 20 % RH, 22 °C, and a gas flow rate of 128 m3/h (75 cfm). Results show that acetone and MEK mutually reduced each other’s PCO removal efficiency, particularly negative removal efficiency for acetone. These findings were different from previous observation of facilitatory effects on the adsorption of acetone and MEK on photocatalyst surfaces.

Keywords: By-products, inhibitory effect, mixture, photocatalytic oxidation.

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1096 E-Service and the Nigerian Banking Sector: A Review of ATM Architecture and Operations

Authors: Bashir A. Yauri, Aliyu R. Yauri

Abstract:

With the introduction of cash-less society policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the concept of e-banking services have over the years’ experience a significant improvement. Today quite a number of people are embracing e-banking activities especially ATM, thereby moving away from the conventional banking system. This paper presents a review of the underlying Architectural Layout of Intra-Bank and Inter-Bank ATM connectivity in Nigeria. The paper further investigates and discusses factors affecting the Intra- Bank and Inter-Bank ATM connectivity in Nigeria. In addition, as well possible solutions to these factors affecting ATM Connectivity and Operations are proposed.

Keywords: Architectural layout, automated teller machine, e-services, interswitch.

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1095 Influence of IMV on Space Station

Authors: Fu Shiming, Pei Yifei

Abstract:

To study the impact of the inter-module ventilation (IMV) on the space station, the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model under the influence of IMV, the mathematical model, boundary conditions and calculation method are established and determined to analyze the influence of IMV on cabin air flow characteristics and velocity distribution firstly; and then an integrated overall thermal mathematical model of the space station is used to consider the impact of IMV on thermal management. The results show that: the IMV has a significant influence on the cabin air flow, the flowrate of IMV within a certain range can effectively improve the air velocity distribution in cabin, if too much may lead to its deterioration; IMV can affect the heat deployment of the different modules in space station, thus affecting its thermal management, the use of IMV can effectively maintain the temperature levels of the different modules and help the space station to dissipate the waste heat.

Keywords: CFD, Environment control and life support, Space station, Thermal management, Thermal mathematical model.

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1094 Web Service Security Method To SOA Development

Authors: Nafise Fareghzadeh

Abstract:

Web services provide significant new benefits for SOAbased applications, but they also expose significant new security risks. There are huge number of WS security standards and processes. At present, there is still a lack of a comprehensive approach which offers a methodical development in the construction of secure WS-based SOA. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to address this needs, presenting a comprehensive method for Web Services Security guaranty in SOA. The proposed method defines three stages, Initial Security Analysis, Architectural Security Guaranty and WS Security Standards Identification. These facilitate, respectively, the definition and analysis of WS-specific security requirements, the development of a WS-based security architecture and the identification of the related WS security standards that the security architecture must articulate in order to implement the security services.

Keywords: Kernel, Repository, Security Standards, WS Security Policy, WS specification.

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1093 Improving the Quality of Transport Management Services with Fuzzy Signatures

Authors: Csaba I. Hencz, István Á. Harmati

Abstract:

Nowadays the significance of road transport is gradually increasing. All transport companies are working in the same external environment where the speed of transport is defined by traffic rules. The main objective is to accelerate the speed of service and it is only dependent on the individual abilities of the managing members. These operational control units make decisions quickly (in a typically experiential and/or intuitive way). For this reason, support for these decisions is an important task. Our goal is to create a decision support model based on fuzzy signatures that can assist the work of operational management automatically. If the model sets parameters properly, the management of transport could be more economical and efficient.

Keywords: Freight transport, decision support, information handling, fuzzy methods.

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1092 Integration and Selectivity in Open Innovation:An Empirical Analysis in SMEs

Authors: Chiara Verbano, Maria Crema, Karen Venturini

Abstract:

The company-s ability to draw on a range of external sources to meet their needs for innovation, has been termed 'open innovation' (OI). Very few empirical analyses have been conducted on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to the extent that they describe and understand the characteristics and implications of this new paradigm. The study's objective is to identify and characterize different modes of OI, (considering innovation process phases and the variety and breadth of the collaboration), determinants, barriers and motivations in SMEs. Therefore a survey was carried out among Italian manufacturing firms and a database of 105 companies was obtained. With regard to data elaboration, a factorial and cluster analysis has been conducted and three different OI modes have emerged: selective low open, unselective open upstream, and mid- partners integrated open. The different behaviours of the three clusters in terms of determinants factors, performance, firm-s technology intensity, barriers and motivations have been analyzed and discussed.

Keywords: Open innovation, R&D management, SMEs.

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1091 The Household Behavior on Solid Waste and Wastewater Management in Municipal Area with Cleanliness Policy Determined by Community

Authors: Paiboon Jeamponk

Abstract:

The Bangnanglee Sub-district Administrative Office, Thailand had initiated a policy to environmental protection with encouraging household waste management in order to promote civil responsibility for domestic hygienic. This research studied the household behaviors on solid waste and wastewater management. A sample population of 306 families answered a questionnaire. The study showed that, on average, domestic activities had produced 1.93 kilograms of waste per household per day. It has been found that 79% of the households made several attempts to reduce their own amount of waste. 80% of the households stationed their own garbage bins. 71% managed their waste by selling recyclable products. As for the rest of the waste, 51% burned them, while 29% disposed their waste in the nearby public trashcans and other 13% have them buried. As for wastewater, 60% of the households disposed it into the sewage, whereas 30% disposed them right from their elevated house.

Keywords: Environmental integrated management, environmental protection, household waste management.

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1090 Cloud Computing Databases: Latest Trends and Architectural Concepts

Authors: Tarandeep Singh, Parvinder S. Sandhu

Abstract:

The Economic factors are leading to the rise of infrastructures provides software and computing facilities as a service, known as cloud services or cloud computing. Cloud services can provide efficiencies for application providers, both by limiting up-front capital expenses, and by reducing the cost of ownership over time. Such services are made available in a data center, using shared commodity hardware for computation and storage. There is a varied set of cloud services available today, including application services (salesforce.com), storage services (Amazon S3), compute services (Google App Engine, Amazon EC2) and data services (Amazon SimpleDB, Microsoft SQL Server Data Services, Google-s Data store). These services represent a variety of reformations of data management architectures, and more are on the horizon.

Keywords: Data Management in Cloud, AWS, EC2, S3, SQS, TQG.

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1089 An Integrated Framework for Engaging Stakeholders in the Circular Economy Processes Using Building Information Modeling and Virtual Reality

Authors: Erisasadat Sahebzamani, Núria Forcada, Francisco Lendinez

Abstract:

Global climate change has become increasingly problematic over the past few decades. The construction industry has contributed to greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. Considering these issues and the high demand for materials in the construction industry, Circular Economy (CE) is considered necessary to keep materials in the loop and extend their useful lives. By providing tangible benefits, Construction 4.0 facilitates the adoption of CE by reducing waste, updating standard work, sharing knowledge, and increasing transparency and stability. This study aims to present a framework for integrating CE and digital tools like Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Virtual Reality (VR) to examine the impact on the construction industry based on stakeholders' perspectives.

Keywords: Circular Economy, Building Information Modeling, Virtual Reality, stakeholder engagement.

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1088 Activity-Based Costing in the Hospitality Industry: A Case Study in a Hotel

Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Mohammad Ara

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to provide some empirical evidence about implementing Activity-Based Costing (ABC) in the hospitality industry in Iran. For this purpose, we consider the Tabriz International Hotel as our sample hotel and then gather the relevant data from its cost accounting system in 2012. Then, we use ABC as our costing method and compare the cost of each service unit with that cost which had been extracted for the traditional costing method. The results show a different cost per unit for two methods. Also, because of its more precise and detailed provided information, an ABC system facilitates the decision-making process for managers on decisions related to profitability analysis, budgeting, pricing, and so on.

Keywords: Activity-based costing, activity, cost driver, hospitality industry.

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1087 Predicting DHF Incidence in Northern Thailand using Time Series Analysis Technique

Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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