Search results for: secure outage probability

Authors: Anuruddha Jayasuriya, Thanakorn Pheeraphan

Abstract:

In this paper, a review of different mathematical models which can be used as prediction tools to assess the time to crack reinforced concrete (RC) due to corrosion is investigated. This investigation leads to an experimental study to validate a selected prediction model. Most of these mathematical models depend upon the mechanical behaviors, chemical behaviors, electrochemical behaviors or geometric aspects of the RC members during a corrosion process. The experimental program is designed to verify the accuracy of a well-selected mathematical model from a rigorous literature study. Fundamentally, the experimental program exemplifies both one-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared slab elements of 500 mm by 500 mm and two-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared column elements of 225 mm by 225 mm by 500 mm. Each set consists of three water-to-cement ratios (w/c); 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and two cover depths; 25 mm and 50 mm. 12 mm bars are used for column elements and 16 mm bars are used for slab elements. All the samples are subjected to accelerated chloride corrosion in a chloride bath of 5% (w/w) sodium chloride (NaCl) solution. Based on a pre-screening of different models, it is clear that the well-selected mathematical model had included mechanical properties, chemical and electrochemical properties, nature of corrosion whether it is accelerated or natural, and the amount of porous area that rust products can accommodate before exerting expansive pressure on the surrounding concrete. The experimental results have shown that the selected model for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional chloride diffusion had ±20% and ±10% respective accuracies compared to the experimental output. The half-cell potential readings are also used to see the corrosion probability, and experimental results have shown that the mass loss is proportional to the negative half-cell potential readings that are obtained. Additionally, a statistical analysis is carried out in order to determine the most influential factor that affects the time to corrode the reinforcement in the concrete due to chloride diffusion. The factors considered for this analysis are w/c, bar diameter, and cover depth. The analysis is accomplished by using Minitab statistical software, and it showed that cover depth is the significant effect on the time to crack the concrete from chloride induced corrosion than other factors considered. Thus, the time predictions can be illustrated through the selected mathematical model as it covers a wide range of factors affecting the corrosion process, and it can be used to predetermine the durability concern of RC structures that are vulnerable to chloride exposure. And eventually, it is further concluded that cover thickness plays a vital role in durability in terms of chloride diffusion.

Keywords: Accelerated corrosion, chloride diffusion, corrosion cracks, passivation layer, reinforcement corrosion.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 896

Authors: Milada Krejci, Martin Hill, Vaclav Hosek, Dobroslava Jandova, Jiri Kajzar, Pavel Blaha

Abstract:

The paper declares effects of exercise intervention of the research project “Basic research of balance changes in seniors”, granted by the Czech Science Foundation. The objective of the presented study is to define predictors, which influence bio-psycho-social consequences and effects of balance ability in senior 65 years old and above. We focused on the Fall-Efficacy Scale changes evaluation in seniors. Comprehensive hypothesis of the project declares, that motion uncertainty (dyskinesia) can negatively affect the well-being of a senior in bio-psycho-social context. In total, random selection and testing of 100 seniors (30 males, 70 females) from Prague and Central Bohemian region was provided. The sample was divided by stratified random selection into experimental and control groups, who underwent input and output testing. For diagnostics the methods of Medical Anamnesis, Functional anthropological examinations, Tinetti Balance Assessment Tool, SF-36 Health Survey, Anamnestic comparative self-assessment scale were used. Intervention method called "Life in Balance" based on yoga techniques was applied in four-week cycle. Results of multivariate regression were verified by repeated measures ANOVA: subject factor, phase of intervention (between-subject factor), body fluid (within-subject factor) and phase of intervention × body fluid interaction). ANOVA was performed with a repetition involving the factors of subjects, experimental/control group, phase of intervention (independent variable), and x phase interaction followed by Bonferroni multiple comparison assays with a test strength of at least 0.8 on the probability level p < 0.05. In the paper results of the first-year investigation of the three years running project are analysed. Results of balance tests confirmed no significant difference between females and males in pre-test. Significant improvements in balance and walking ability were observed in experimental group in females comparing to males (F = 128.4, p < 0.001). In the females control group, there was no significant change in post- test, while in the female experimental group positive changes in posture and spine flexibility in post-tests were found. It seems that females even in senior age react better to incentives of intervention in balance and spine flexibility. On the base of results analyses, we can declare the significant improvement in social balance markers after intervention in the experimental group (F = 10.5, p < 0.001). In average, seniors are used to take four drugs daily. Number of drugs can contribute to allergy symptoms and balance problems. It can be concluded that static balance and walking ability of seniors according Tinetti Balance scale correlate significantly with psychic and social monitored markers.

Keywords: Exercises, balance, seniors 65+, health, mental and social balance.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 859

Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 541

Authors: P. C. Kutschera, Elena C. Tesoro, Mary Grace Talamera-Sandico, Jose Maria G. Pelayo III

Abstract:

Second generation military Filipino Amerasians comprise a formidable contemporary segment of the estimated 250,000-plus biracial Amerasians in the Philippines today. Overall, they are a stigmatized and socioeconomically marginalized diaspora; historically, they were abandoned or estranged by U.S. military personnel fathers assigned during the century-long Colonial, Post- World War II and Cold War Era of permanent military basing (1898- 1992). Indeed, U.S. military personnel are assigned in smaller numbers in the Philippines today. This inquiry is an outgrowth of two recent small sample studies. The first surfaced the impact of the U.S. military prostitution system on formation of the ‘Derivative Amerasian Family Construct’ on first generation Amerasians; a second, qualitative case study suggested the continued effect of the prostitution systems' destructive impetuous on second generation Amerasians. The intent of this current qualitative, multiple-case study was to actively seek out second generation sex industry toilers. The purpose was to focus further on this human phenomenon in the postbasing and post-military prostitution system eras. As background, the former military prostitution apparatus has transformed into a modern dynamic of rampant sex tourism and prostitution nationwide. This is characterized by hotel and resorts offering unrestricted carnal access, urban and provincial brothels (casas), discos, bars and pickup clubs, massage parlors, local barrio karaoke bars and street prostitution. A small case study sample (N = 4) of female and male second generation Amerasians were selected. Sample formation employed a non-probability ‘snowball’ technique drawing respondents from the notorious Angeles, Metro Manila, Olongapo City ‘AMO Amerasian Triangle’ where most former U.S. military installations were sited and modern sex tourism thrives. A six-month study and analysis of in-depth interviews of female and male sex laborers, their families and peers revealed a litany of disturbing, and troublesome experiences. Results showed profiles of debilitating human poverty, history of family disorganization, stigmatization, social marginalization and the ghost of the military prostitution system and its harmful legacy on Amerasian family units. Emerging were testimonials of wayward young people ensnared in a maelstrom of deep economic deprivation, familial dysfunction, psychological desperation and societal indifference. The paper recommends that more study is needed and implications of unstudied psychosocial and socioeconomic experiences of distressed younger generations of military Amerasians require specific research. Heretofore apathetic or disengaged U.S. institutions need to confront the issue and formulate activist and solution-oriented social welfare, human services and immigration easement policies and alternatives. These institutions specifically include academic and social science research agencies, corporate foundations, the U.S. Congress, and Departments of State, Defense and Health and Human Services, and Homeland Security (i.e. Citizen and Immigration Services) It is them who continue to endorse a laissez-faire policy of non-involvement over the entire Filipino Amerasian question. Such apathy, the paper concludes, relegates this consequential but neglected blood progeny to the status of humiliating destitution and exploitation. Amerasians; thus, remain entrapped in their former colonial, and neo-colonial habitat. Ironically, they are unwitting victims of a U.S. American homeland that fancies itself geo-politically as a strong and strategic military treaty ally of the Philippines in the Western Pacific.

Keywords: Asian Americans, Filipino Amerasians, diaspora, military prostitution, stigmatization.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2559