Search results for: Volatility.

Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V. Gborie

Abstract:

The goal of this study was to increase the awareness of the description and assessments of rice acreage response and to offer mechanisms for agricultural policy scrutiny. The ordinary least square (OLS) technique was utilized to determine the coefficients of acreage response models for the rice varieties. The magnitudes of the coefficients (λ) of both the ROK lagged and NERICA lagged acreages were found positive and highly significant, which indicates that farmers’ adjustment rate was very low. Regarding lagged actual price for both the ROK and NERICE rice varieties, the short-run price elasticitieswere lower than long-run, which is suggesting a long term adjustment of the acreage under the crop.

However, the apparent recommendations for policy transformation are to open farm gate prices and to decrease government’s involvement in agricultural sector especially in the acquisition of agricultural inputs. Impending research have to be centered on how this might be better realized. Necessary conditions should be made available to the private sector by means of minimizing price volatility. In accordance with structural reforms, it is necessary to convey output prices to farmers with minimum distortion. There is need to eradicate price subsidies and control, which generate distortion in the market in addition to huge financial costs.

Keywords: Acreage response, rate of adjustment, rice varieties, Sierra Leone.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3792

Authors: Sadaf Khalid, Fahim Arif

Abstract:

Wide applicability of concurrent programming practices in developing various software applications leads to different concurrency errors amongst which data race is the most important. Java provides greatest support for concurrent programming by introducing various concurrency packages. Aspect oriented programming (AOP) is modern programming paradigm facilitating the runtime interception of events of interest and can be effectively used to handle the concurrency problems. AspectJ being an aspect oriented extension to java facilitates the application of concepts of AOP for data race detection. Volatile variables are usually considered thread safe, but they can become the possible candidates of data races if non-atomic operations are performed concurrently upon them. Various data race detection algorithms have been proposed in the past but this issue of volatility and atomicity is still unaddressed. The aim of this research is to propose some suggestions for incorporating certain conditions for data race detection in java programs at the volatile fields by taking into account support for atomicity in java concurrency packages and making use of pointcuts. Two simple test programs will demonstrate the results of research. The results are verified on two different Java Development Kits (JDKs) for the purpose of comparison.

Keywords: Aspect Bench Compiler (abc), Aspect OrientedProgramming (AOP), AspectJ, Aspects, Concurrency packages, Concurrent programming, Cross-cutting Concerns, Data race, Eclipse, Java, Java Development Kits (JDKs), Pointcuts

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1931

Authors: Pornchai Suriya-Amrit, Suratsawadee Kungsanant, Boonyarach Kitiyanan

Abstract:

There has been a growing interest in utilizing surfactants in remediation processes to separate the hydrophobic volatile organic compounds (HVOCs) from aqueous solution. One attractive process is cloud point extraction (CPE), which utilizes nonionic surfactants as a separating agent. Since the surfactant cost is a key determination of the economic viability of the process, it is important that the surfactants are recycled and reused. This work aims to study the performance of the co-current vacuum stripping using a packed column for HVOCs removal from contaminated surfactant solution. Six types HVOCs are selected as contaminants. The studied surfactant is the branched secondary alcohol ethoxylates (AEs), Tergitol TMN-6 (C14H30O2). The volatility and the solubility of HVOCs in surfactant system are determined in terms of an apparent Henry’s law constant and a solubilization constant, respectively. Moreover, the HVOCs removal efficiency of vacuum stripping column is assessed in terms of percentage of HVOCs removal and the overall liquid phase volumetric mass transfer coefficient. The apparent Henry’s law constant of benzenz , toluene, and ethyl benzene were 7.00×10-5, 5.38×10-5, 3.35× 10-5 respectively. The solubilization constant of benzene, toluene, and ethyl benzene were 1.71, 2.68, 7.54 respectively. The HVOCs removal for all solute were around 90 percent.

Keywords: Apparent Henry’s law constant, Branched secondary alcohol ethoxylates, Vacuum Stripping.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1690

Authors: Velmurugan. A, Loganathan. M

Abstract:

The increased number of automobiles in recent years has resulted in great demand for fossil fuel. This has led to the development of automobile by using alternative fuels which include gaseous fuels, biofuels and vegetables oils as fuel. Energy from biomass and more specific bio-diesel is one of the opportunities that could cover the future demand of fossil fuel shortage. Biomass in the form of cashew nut shell represents a new energy source and abundant source of energy in India. The bio-fuel is derived from cashew nut shell oil and its blend with diesel are promising alternative fuel for diesel engine. In this work the pyrolysis Cashew Nut Shell Liquid (CNSL)-Diesel Blends (CDB) was used to run the Direct Injection (DI) diesel engine. The experiments were conducted with various blends of CNSL and Diesel namely B20, B40, B60, B80 and B100. The results are compared with neat diesel operation. The brake thermal efficiency was decreased for blends of CNSL and Diesel except the lower blends of B20. The brake thermal efficiency of B20 is nearly closer to that of diesel fuel. Also the emission level of the all CNSL and Diesel blends was increased compared to neat diesel. The higher viscosity and lower volatility of CNSL leads to poor mixture formation and hence lower brake thermal efficiency and higher emission levels. The higher emission level can be reduced by adding suitable additives and oxygenates with CNSL and Diesel blends.

Keywords: Bio-oil, Biodiesel, Cardanol, Cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL)

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3941

Authors: Ghulam Murshid

Abstract:

Carbon dioxide is one of the major greenhouse gas (GHG) contributors. It is an obligation of the industry to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emission to the acceptable limits. Tremendous research and studies are reported in the past and still the quest to find the suitable and economical solution of this problem needed to be explored in order to develop the most plausible absorber for carbon dioxide removal. Amino acids can be potential alternate solvents for carbon dioxide capture from gaseous streams. This is due to its ability to resist oxidative degradation, low volatility and its ionic structure. In addition, the introduction of promoter-like piperazine to amino acid helps to further enhance the solubility. In this work, the effect of piperazine on thermo physical properties and solubility of β-Alanine aqueous solutions were studied for various concentrations. The measured physicochemical properties data was correlated as a function of temperature using least-squares method and the correlation parameters are reported together with it respective standard deviations. The effect of activator piperazine on the CO2 loading performance of selected amino acid under high-pressure conditions (1bar to 10bar) at temperature range of (30 to 60)oC was also studied. Solubility of CO2 decreases with increasing temperature and increases with increasing pressure. Quadratic representation of solubility using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) shows that the most important parameter to optimize solubility is system pressure. The addition of promoter increases the solubility effect of the solvent.

Keywords: Amino acids, CO2, Global warming, Solubility.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3647

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1098

Authors: Promise A. Azor, Avievie Igodo, Esabai M. Ase

Abstract:

The paper merged the return of premium clause and voluntary contributions to investigate retirees’ investment plan in a defined contributory (DC) pension scheme with a portfolio comprising of a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process is described by geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The paper considers additional voluntary contributions paid by members, charge on balance by pension fund administrators and the mortality risk of members of the scheme during the accumulation period by introducing return of premium clause. To achieve this, the Weilbull mortality force function is used to establish the mortality rate of members during accumulation phase. Furthermore, an optimization problem from the Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is obtained using dynamic programming approach. Also, the Legendre transformation method is used to transform the HJB equation which is a nonlinear partial differential equation to a linear partial differential equation and solves the resultant equation for the value function and the optimal distribution plan under logarithm utility function. Finally, numerical simulations of the impact of some important parameters on the optimal distribution plan were obtained and it was observed that the optimal distribution plan is inversely proportional to the initial fund size, predetermined interest rate, additional voluntary contributions, charge on balance and instantaneous volatility.

Keywords: Legendre transform, logarithm utility, optimal distribution plan, return clause of premium, charge on balance, Weibull mortality function.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Ajay V. Kolhe, R. E. Shelke, S. S. Khandare

Abstract:

Various biomass based resources, which can be used as an extender, or a complete substitute of diesel fuel may have very significant role in the development of agriculture, industrial and transport sectors in the energy crisis. Use of Karanja oil methyl ester biodiesel in a CI DI engine was found highly compatible with engine performance along with lower exhaust emission as compared to diesel fuel but with slightly higher NOx emission and low wear characteristics. The combustion related properties of vegetable oils are somewhat similar to diesel oil. Neat vegetable oils or their blends with diesel, however, pose various long-term problems in compression ignition engines. These undesirable features of vegetable oils are because of their inherent properties like high viscosity, low volatility, and polyunsaturated character. Pongamia methyl ester (PME) was prepared by transesterification process using methanol for long term engine operations. The physical and combustion-related properties of the fuels thus developed were found to be closer to that of the diesel. A neat biodiesel (PME) was selected as a fuel for the tribological study of biofuels. Two similar new engines were completely disassembled and subjected to dimensioning of various vital moving parts and then subjected to long-term endurance tests on neat biodiesel and diesel respectively. After completion of the test, both the engines were again disassembled for physical inspection and wear measurement of various vital parts. The lubricating oil samples drawn from both engines were subjected to atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) for measurement of various wear metal traces present. The additional lubricating property of biodiesel fuel due to higher viscosity as compared to diesel fuel resulted in lower wear of moving parts and thus improved the engine durability with a bio-diesel fuel. Results reported from AAS tests confirmed substantially lower wear and thus improved life for biodiesel operated engines.

Keywords: Transesterification, PME, wear of engine parts, Metal traces and AAS.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2447

Authors: Dipo Dunsin, Mohamed C. Ghanem, Karim Ouazzane

Abstract:

Digital investigators often have a hard time spotting evidence in digital information. It has become hard to determine which source of proof relates to a specific investigation. A growing concern is that the various processes, technology, and specific procedures used in the digital investigation are not keeping up with criminal developments. Therefore, criminals are taking advantage of these weaknesses to commit further crimes. In digital forensics investigations, artificial intelligence (AI) is invaluable in identifying crime. Providing objective data and conducting an assessment is the goal of digital forensics and digital investigation, which will assist in developing a plausible theory that can be presented as evidence in court. This research paper aims at developing a multiagent framework for digital investigations using specific intelligent software agents (ISAs). The agents communicate to address particular tasks jointly and keep the same objectives in mind during each task. The rules and knowledge contained within each agent are dependent on the investigation type. A criminal investigation is classified quickly and efficiently using the case-based reasoning (CBR) technique. The proposed framework development is implemented using the Java Agent Development Framework, Eclipse, Postgres repository, and a rule engine for agent reasoning. The proposed framework was tested using the Lone Wolf image files and datasets. Experiments were conducted using various sets of ISAs and VMs. There was a significant reduction in the time taken for the Hash Set Agent to execute. As a result of loading the agents, 5% of the time was lost, as the File Path Agent prescribed deleting 1,510, while the Timeline Agent found multiple executable files. In comparison, the integrity check carried out on the Lone Wolf image file using a digital forensic tool kit took approximately 48 minutes (2,880 ms), whereas the MADIK framework accomplished this in 16 minutes (960 ms). The framework is integrated with Python, allowing for further integration of other digital forensic tools, such as AccessData Forensic Toolkit (FTK), Wireshark, Volatility, and Scapy.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, computer science, criminal investigation, digital forensics.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1300

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 416