Search results for: prediction modelling

Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

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Authors: Said Boukais, Ali Kezmane, Kahil Amar, Mohand Hamizi, Hannachi Neceur Eddine

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This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of rectangular reinforced concrete walls with an aspect ratio between one and tow. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood equation for shear and strain compatibility analysis for flexure. Subsequently, nominal ultimate wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate strength. New semi empirical equation are developed using data from tests of 46 walls with the objective of improving the prediction of ultimate strength of walls with the most possible accuracy and for all failure modes.

Keywords: prediction, ultimate strength, reinforced concrete walls, walls, rectangular walls

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Authors: Zunaira Zaman, David Bohannon

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This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) for detecting security vulnerabilities in source code. The research aims to assist organizations with large application portfolios and limited security testing capabilities in prioritizing security activities. ML-based approaches offer benefits such as increased confidence scores, false positives and negatives tuning, and automated feedback. The initial approach using natural language processing techniques to extract features achieved 86% accuracy during the training phase but suffered from overfitting and performed poorly on unseen datasets during testing. To address these issues, the study proposes using the abstract syntax tree (AST) for Java and C++ codebases to capture code semantics and structure and generate path-context representations for each function. The Code2Vec model architecture is used to learn distributed representations of source code snippets for training a machine-learning classifier for vulnerability prediction. The study evaluates the performance of the proposed methodology using two datasets and compares the results with existing approaches. The Devign dataset yielded 60% accuracy in predicting vulnerable code snippets and helped resist overfitting, while the Juliet Test Suite predicted specific vulnerabilities such as OS-Command Injection, Cryptographic, and Cross-Site Scripting vulnerabilities. The Code2Vec model achieved 75% accuracy and a 98% recall rate in predicting OS-Command Injection vulnerabilities. The study concludes that even partial AST representations of source code can be useful for vulnerability prediction. The approach has the potential for automated intelligent analysis of source code, including vulnerability prediction on unseen source code. State-of-the-art models using natural language processing techniques and CNN models with ensemble modelling techniques did not generalize well on unseen data and faced overfitting issues. However, predicting vulnerabilities in source code using machine learning poses challenges such as high dimensionality and complexity of source code, imbalanced datasets, and identifying specific types of vulnerabilities. Future work will address these challenges and expand the scope of the research.

Keywords: code embeddings, neural networks, natural language processing, OS command injection, software security, code properties

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Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Lidija R. Jevrić, Stela Jokić

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The subject of this paper is to correlate antibacterial behavior of benzimidazole derivatives with their molecular characteristics using chemometric QSAR (Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationships) approach. QSAR analysis has been carried out on the inhibitory activity of benzimidazole derivatives against Staphylococcus aureus. The data were processed by linear least squares (LLS) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The LLS mathematical models have been developed as a calibration models for prediction of the inhibitory activity. The quality of the models was validated by leave one out (LOO) technique and by using external data set. High agreement between experimental and predicted inhibitory acivities indicated the good quality of the derived models. These results are part of the CMST COST Action No. CM1306 "Understanding Movement and Mechanism in Molecular Machines".

Keywords: Antibacterial, benzimidazoles, chemometric, QSAR.

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Authors: Mohd Tariq, Shyamal K. Nandi, Indra D. Bhatt

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Paris polyphylla Smith (Family- Liliaceae; English name-Love apple: Local name- Satuwa) is an important folk medicinal herb of the Indian subcontinent, being a source of number of bioactive compounds for drug formulation. The rhizomes are widely used as antihelmintic, antispasmodic, digestive stomachic, expectorant and vermifuge, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, heart and vascular malady, anti-fertility and sedative. Keeping in view of this, the species is being constantly removed from nature for trade and various pharmaceuticals purpose, as a result, the availability of the species in its natural habitat is decreasing. In this context, it would be pertinent to conserve this species and reintroduce them in its natural habitat. Predictive distribution modelling of this species was performed in Western Himalayan Region. One such recent method is Ecological Niche Modelling, also popularly known as Species distribution modelling, which uses computer algorithms to generate predictive maps of species distributions in a geographic space by correlating the point distributional data with a set of environmental raster data. In case of P. polyphylla, and to understand its potential distribution zones and setting up of artificial introductions, or selecting conservation sites, and conservation and management of their native habitat. Among the different districts of Uttarakhand (28°05ˈ-31°25ˈ N and 77°45ˈ-81°45ˈ E) Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Pauri Garhwal and some parts of Bageshwar, 'Maximum Entropy' (Maxent) has predicted wider potential distribution of P. polyphylla Smith. Distribution of P. polyphylla is mainly governed by Precipitation of Driest Quarter and Mean Diurnal Range i.e., 27.08% and 18.99% respectively which indicates that humidity (27%) and average temperature (19°C) might be suitable for better growth of Paris polyphylla.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, Indian Himalayan region, Paris polyphylla, predictive distribution modelling

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Authors: Abdullah A. H. Alzahrani, Majd Zohri Yafi, Fawaz K. Alarfaj

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Unified Modelling Language (UML) is a software modelling language that is widely used and accepted. One significant drawback, of which, is that the language lacks formality. This makes carrying out any type of rigorous analysis difficult process. Many researchers attempt to introduce their approaches to formalize UML diagrams. However, it is always hard to decide what language and/or approach to use. Therefore, in this paper, we highlight some of the advantages and disadvantages of number of those approaches. We also try to compare different counterpart approaches. In addition, we draw some guidelines to help in choosing the suitable approach. Special concern is given to the formalization of the static aspects of UML shown is class diagrams.

Keywords: UML formalization, object constraints language, description logic, z language

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Authors: Mona Hejazi, Ali Motie Nasrabadi

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Epilepsy is a persistent neurological disorder that affects more than 50 million people worldwide. Hence, there is a necessity to introduce an efficient prediction model for making a correct diagnosis of the epileptic seizure and accurate prediction of its type. In this study we consider how the Effective Connectivity (EC) patterns obtained from intracranial Electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings reveal information about the dynamics of the epileptic brain and can be used to predict imminent seizures, as this will enable the patients (and caregivers) to take appropriate precautions. We use this definition because we believe that effective connectivity near seizures begin to change, so we can predict seizures according to this feature. Results are reported on the standard Freiburg EEG dataset which contains data from 21 patients suffering from medically intractable focal epilepsy. Six channels of EEG from each patients are considered and effective connectivity using Directed Transfer Function (DTF) and Granger Causality (GC) methods is estimated. We concentrate on effective connectivity standard deviation over time and feature changes in five brain frequency sub-bands (Alpha, Beta, Theta, Delta, and Gamma) are compared. The performance obtained for the proposed scheme in predicting seizures is: average prediction time is 50 minutes before seizure onset, the maximum sensitivity is approximate ~80% and the false positive rate is 0.33 FP/h. DTF method is more acceptable to predict epileptic seizures and generally we can observe that the greater results are in gamma and beta sub-bands. The research of this paper is significantly helpful for clinical applications, especially for the exploitation of online portable devices.

Keywords: effective connectivity, Granger causality, directed transfer function, epilepsy seizure prediction, EEG

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Levy flight, distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence

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Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous

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Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models, and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulates the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar cycles (sc) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.

Keywords: artificial neural network, coronal hole area, feed-forward neural network models, solar high speed streams

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Authors: Brahim-Fares Zaidi, Malika Boudraa, Sid-Ahmed Selouani

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Our work aims to improve our Automatic Recognition System for Dysarthria Speech (ARSDS) based on the Hidden Models of Markov (HMM) and the Hidden Markov Model Toolkit (HTK) to help people who are sick. With pronunciation problems, we applied two techniques of speech parameterization based on Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC's) and Perceptual Linear Prediction (PLP's) and concatenated them with JITTER and SHIMMER coefficients in order to increase the recognition rate of a dysarthria speech. For our tests, we used the NEMOURS database that represents speakers with dysarthria and normal speakers.

Keywords: hidden Markov model toolkit (HTK), hidden models of Markov (HMM), Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC), perceptual linear prediction (PLP’s)

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Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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Authors: Laura M. F. Bertens

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There is a long tradition of visually representing the art historical canon, in schematic overviews and diagrams. This is indicative of the desire for scientific, ‘objective’ knowledge of the kind (seemingly) produced in the natural sciences. These diagrams will, however, always retain an element of subjectivity and the modelling methods colour our perception of the represented information. In recent decades visualisations of art historical data, such as hand-drawn diagrams in textbooks, have been extended to include digital, computational tools. These tools significantly increase modelling strength and functionality. As such, they might be used to deconstruct and amend the very problem caused by traditional visualisations of the canon. In this paper, the use of digital tools for modelling the art historical canon is studied, in order to draw attention to the artificial nature of the static models that art historians are presented with in textbooks and lectures, as well as to explore the potential of digital, dynamic tools in creating new models. To study the way diagrams of the canon mediate the represented information, two modelling methods have been used on two case studies of existing diagrams. The tree diagram Stammbaum der neudeutschen Kunst (1823) by Ferdinand Olivier has been translated to a social network using the program Visone, and the famous flow chart Cubism and Abstract Art (1936) by Alfred Barr has been translated to an ontological model using Protégé Ontology Editor. The implications of the modelling decisions have been analysed in an art historical context. The aim of this project has been twofold. On the one hand the translation process makes explicit the design choices in the original diagrams, which reflect hidden assumptions about the Western canon. Ways of organizing data (for instance ordering art according to artist) have come to feel natural and neutral and implicit biases and the historically uneven distribution of power have resulted in underrepresentation of groups of artists. Over the last decades, scholars from fields such as Feminist Studies, Postcolonial Studies and Gender Studies have considered this problem and tried to remedy it. The translation presented here adds to this deconstruction by defamiliarizing the traditional models and analysing the process of reconstructing new models, step by step, taking into account theoretical critiques of the canon, such as the feminist perspective discussed by Griselda Pollock, amongst others. On the other hand, the project has served as a pilot study for the use of digital modelling tools in creating dynamic visualisations of the canon for education and museum purposes. Dynamic computer models introduce functionalities that allow new ways of ordering and visualising the artworks in the canon. As such, they could form a powerful tool in the training of new art historians, introducing a broader and more diverse view on the traditional canon. Although modelling will always imply a simplification and therefore a distortion of reality, new modelling techniques can help us get a better sense of the limitations of earlier models and can provide new perspectives on already established knowledge.

Keywords: canon, ontological modelling, Protege Ontology Editor, social network modelling, Visone

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Authors: Prashant Verma, Prafulla K. Swain, K. K. Singh, Mukti Khetan

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Objective: In India, around 20,000 women die every year due to abortion-related complications. In the modelling of count variables, there is sometimes a preponderance of zero counts. This article concerns the estimation of various count regression models to predict the average number of spontaneous abortion among women in the Punjab state of India. It also assesses the factors associated with the number of spontaneous abortions. Materials and methods: The study included 27,173 married women of Punjab obtained from the DLHS-4 survey (2012-13). Poisson regression (PR), Negative binomial (NB) regression, zero hurdle negative binomial (ZHNB), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models were employed to predict the average number of spontaneous abortions and to identify the determinants affecting the number of spontaneous abortions. Results: Statistical comparisons among four estimation methods revealed that the ZINB model provides the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions. Antenatal care (ANC) place, place of residence, total children born to a woman, woman's education and economic status were found to be the most significant factors affecting the occurrence of spontaneous abortion. Conclusions: The study offers a practical demonstration of techniques designed to handle count variables. Statistical comparisons among four estimation models revealed that the ZINB model provided the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions and is recommended to be used to predict the number of spontaneous abortions. The study suggests that women receive institutional Antenatal care to attain limited parity. It also advocates promoting higher education among women in Punjab, India.

Keywords: count data, spontaneous abortion, Poisson model, negative binomial model, zero hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, regression

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Detection of incipient abnormal events in production processes is important to improve safety and reliability of manufacturing operations and reduce losses caused by failures. The construction of calibration models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform preventive maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of process measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes variable selection techniques, and the predictive performance of several prediction methods are evaluated using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic model yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: calibration model, monitoring, quality improvement, feature selection

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Authors: Khaled Abu Awwad, Abdussalam Shibani, Michel Ghostin

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In the last few years, building information modelling (BIM) has been acknowledged as a new technology capable of transforming the construction sector to a collaborated industry. The implementation of BIM in the United Kingdom (UK) construction sector has increased significantly in the last decade, particularly after the UK government mandated the use of BIM in all public projects by 2016. Despite this, there are many indicators that BIM implementation is the main concern for large companies, while small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are lagging behind in adopting and implementing this new technology. This slow adoption of BIM leads to an uncompetitive disadvantage in public projects and possible private projects. On the other hand, there is limited research focusing on the implementation of BIM Level 2 within SMEs. Therefore, the aim of this study is to bridge this gap and provide a conceptual framework to aid SMEs in implementing BIM Level 2. This framework is a result of interpreting qualitative data obtained by conducting semi-structured interviews with BIM experts in the UK construction industry.

Keywords: building information modelling, critical success factors, small and medium-sized enterprises, United Kingdom

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Authors: Kristina Pflug, Markus Busch

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Being able to predict polymer properties and processing behavior based on the applied operating reaction conditions in one of the key challenges in modern polymer reaction engineering. Especially, for cost-intensive processes such as the high-pressure polymerization of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) with high safety-requirements, the need for simulation-based process optimization and product design is high. A multi-scale modelling approach was set-up and validated via a series of high-pressure mini-plant autoclave reactor experiments. The approach starts with the numerical modelling of the complex reaction network of the LDPE polymerization taking into consideration the actual reaction conditions. While this gives average product properties, the complex polymeric microstructure including random short- and long-chain branching is calculated via a hybrid Monte Carlo-approach. Finally, the processing behavior of LDPE -its melt flow behavior- is determined in dependence of the previously determined polymeric microstructure using the branch on branch algorithm for randomly branched polymer systems. All three steps of the multi-scale modelling approach can be independently validated against analytical data. A triple-detector GPC containing an IR, viscosimetry and multi-angle light scattering detector is applied. It serves to determine molecular weight distributions as well as chain-length dependent short- and long-chain branching frequencies. 13C-NMR measurements give average branching frequencies, and rheological measurements in shear and extension serve to characterize the polymeric flow behavior. The accordance of experimental and modelled results was found to be extraordinary, especially taking into consideration that the applied multi-scale modelling approach does not contain parameter fitting of the data. This validates the suggested approach and proves its universality at the same time. In the next step, the modelling approach can be applied to other reactor types, such as tubular reactors or industrial scale. Moreover, sensitivity analysis for systematically varying process conditions is easily feasible. The developed multi-scale modelling approach finally gives the opportunity to predict and design LDPE processing behavior simply based on process conditions such as feed streams and inlet temperatures and pressures.

Keywords: low-density polyethylene, multi-scale modelling, polymer properties, reaction engineering, rheology

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

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Authors: Yang Zhou, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is a fundamental problem in urban environment, facilitating the smart management of various businesses, such as taxi dispatching, bike relocation, and stampede alert. Most earlier methods rely on identifying the intrinsic spatial-temporal correlation to forecast. However, the complex nature of this problem entails a more sophisticated solution that can simultaneously capture the mutual influence of both adjacent and far-flung areas, with the information of time-dimension also incorporated seamlessly. To tackle this difficulty, we propose a new multi-phase architecture, DSTDS (Dual Spatial-Temporal Data Scheme for traffic prediction), that aims to reveal the underlying relationship that determines future traffic trend. First, a graph-based neural network with an attention mechanism is devised to obtain the static features of the road network. Then, a multi-granularity recurrent neural network is built in conjunction with the knowledge from a grid-based model. Subsequently, the preceding output is fed into a spatial-temporal super-resolution module. With this 3-phase structure, we carry out extensive experiments on several real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which surpasses several state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: traffic prediction, spatial-temporal, recurrent neural network, dual data scheme

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Authors: Maryam Kheirollahpour, Mahmoud Danaee, Amir Faisal Merican, Asma Ahmad Shariff

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Background: The presence of nonlinearity among the risk factors of eating behavior causes a bias in the prediction models. The accuracy of estimation of eating behaviors risk factors in the primary prevention of obesity has been established. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the potential of a hybrid model of structural equation modeling (SEM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict eating behaviors. Methods: The Partial Least Square-SEM (PLS-SEM) and a hybrid model (SEM-Artificial Neural Networks (SEM-ANN)) were applied to evaluate the factors affecting eating behavior patterns among university students. 340 university students participated in this study. The PLS-SEM analysis was used to check the effect of emotional eating scale (EES), body shape concern (BSC), and body appreciation scale (BAS) on different categories of eating behavior patterns (EBP). Then, the hybrid model was conducted using multilayer perceptron (MLP) with feedforward network topology. Moreover, Levenberg-Marquardt, which is a supervised learning model, was applied as a learning method for MLP training. The Tangent/sigmoid function was used for the input layer while the linear function applied for the output layer. The coefficient of determination (R²) and mean square error (MSE) was calculated. Results: It was proved that the hybrid model was superior to PLS-SEM methods. Using hybrid model, the optimal network happened at MPLP 3-17-8, while the R² of the model was increased by 27%, while, the MSE was decreased by 9.6%. Moreover, it was found that which one of these factors have significantly affected on healthy and unhealthy eating behavior patterns. The p-value was reported to be less than 0.01 for most of the paths. Conclusion/Importance: Thus, a hybrid approach could be suggested as a significant methodological contribution from a statistical standpoint, and it can be implemented as software to be able to predict models with the highest accuracy.

Keywords: hybrid model, structural equation modeling, artificial neural networks, eating behavior patterns

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Authors: Kelvin Lo

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Nowadays, numerical modelling in geotechnical engineering is very common but sophisticated. Many advanced input settings and considerable computational efforts are required to optimize the design to reduce the construction cost. To optimize a design, it usually requires huge numerical models. If the optimization is conducted manually, there is a potentially dangerous consequence from human errors, and the time spent on the input and data extraction from output is significant. This paper presents an automation process introduced to numerical modelling (Plaxis 2D) of a trench excavation supported by a secant-pile retaining structure for a top-down tunnel project. Python code is adopted to control the process, and numerical modelling is conducted automatically in every 20m chainage along the 200m tunnel, with maximum retained height occurring in the middle chainage. Python code continuously changes the geological stratum and excavation depth under groundwater flow conditions in each 20m section. It automatically conducts trial and error to determine the required pile length and the use of props to achieve the required factor of safety and target displacement. Once the bending moment of the pile exceeds its capacity, it will increase in size. When the pile embedment reaches the default maximum length, it will turn on the prop system. Results showed that it saves time, increases efficiency, lowers design costs, and replaces human labor to minimize error.

Keywords: automation, numerical modelling, Python, retaining structures

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Authors: S. Adjiri-Bailiche, S. M. Boudia, H. Daaou, S. Hadouche, A. Benzaoui

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In this work the study of changes in the wind speed depending on the altitude is calculated and described by the model of the neural networks, the use of measured data, the speed and direction of wind, temperature and the humidity at 10 m are used as input data and as data targets at 50m above sea level. Comparing predict wind speeds and extrapolated at 50 m above sea level is performed. The results show that the prediction by the method of artificial neural networks is very accurate.

Keywords: MATLAB, neural network, power low, vertical extrapolation, wind energy, wind speed

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Authors: Sijing Xiong, Ran Su, Lit-Hsin Loo, Daniele Zink

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The kidney is a major target for toxic effects of drugs, industrial and environmental chemicals and other compounds. Typically, nephrotoxicity is detected late during drug development, and regulatory animal models could not solve this problem. Validated or accepted in silico or in vitro methods for the prediction of nephrotoxicity are not available. We have established the first and currently only pre-validated in vitro models for the accurate prediction of nephrotoxicity in humans and the first predictive platforms based on renal cells derived from human pluripotent stem cells. In order to further improve the efficiency of our predictive models, we recently developed a high content screening (HCS) platform. This platform employed automated imaging in combination with automated quantitative phenotypic profiling and machine learning methods. 129 image-based phenotypic features were analyzed with respect to their predictive performance in combination with 44 compounds with different chemical structures that included drugs, environmental and industrial chemicals and herbal and fungal compounds. The nephrotoxicity of these compounds in humans is well characterized. A combination of chromatin and cytoskeletal features resulted in high predictivity with respect to nephrotoxicity in humans. Test balanced accuracies of 82% or 89% were obtained with human primary or immortalized renal proximal tubular cells, respectively. Furthermore, our results revealed that a DNA damage response is commonly induced by different PTC-toxicants with diverse chemical structures and injury mechanisms. Together, the results show that the automated HCS platform allows efficient and accurate nephrotoxicity prediction for compounds with diverse chemical structures.

Keywords: high content screening, in vitro models, nephrotoxicity, toxicity prediction

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Authors: Yingkun Huang, Li Guo, Zekang Lan, Kai Tian

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Hard disk drives (HDD) failure of the exascale supercomputing system may lead to service interruption and invalidate previous calculations, and it will cause permanent data loss. Therefore, initiating corrective actions before hard drive failures materialize is critical to the continued operation of jobs. In this paper, a highly accurate analysis model based on CNN-LSTM and oversampling technique was proposed, which can correctly predict the necessity of a disk replacement even ten days in advance. Generally, the learning-based method performs poorly on a training dataset with long-tail distribution, especially fault prediction is a very classic situation as the scarcity of failure data. To overcome the puzzle, a new oversampling was employed to augment the data, and then, an improved CNN-LSTM with the shortcut was built to learn more effective features. The shortcut transmits the results of the previous layer of CNN and is used as the input of the LSTM model after weighted fusion with the output of the next layer. Finally, a detailed, empirical comparison of 6 prediction methods is presented and discussed on a public dataset for evaluation. The experiments indicate that the proposed method predicts disk failure with 0.91 Precision, 0.91 Recall, 0.91 F-measure, and 0.90 MCC for 10 days prediction horizon. Thus, the proposed algorithm is an efficient algorithm for predicting HDD failure in supercomputing.

Keywords: HDD replacement, failure, CNN-LSTM, oversampling, prediction

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Authors: Maruful H. Mazumder, Raymond I. Gilbert

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The design specifications for calculating development and lapped splice lengths of reinforcement in concrete are derived from a conventional empirical modelling approach that correlates experimental test data using a single mathematical equation. This paper describes part of a recently completed experimental research program to assess the effects of different structural parameters on the development length requirements of modern high strength steel reinforcing bars, including the case of lapped splices in large-scale reinforced concrete members. The normalized average bond stresses for the different variations of anchorage lengths are assessed according to the general form of a typical empirical analytical model of bond and anchorage. Improved analytical modelling equations are developed in the paper that better correlate the normalized bond strength parameters with the structural parameters of an empirical model of bond and anchorage.

Keywords: bond stress, development length, lapped splice length, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: Rodrigo S. Fonseca, Antônio C. P. Veiga

Abstract:

Aiming at helping people with some movement limitation that makes typing and communication difficult, there is a need to customize an assistive tool with a learning environment that helps the user in order to optimize text input, identifying the error and providing the correction and possibilities of choice in the Portuguese language. The work presents an Orthographic and Grammatical System that can be incorporated into writing environments, improving and facilitating the use of an alphanumeric keyboard, using a prototype built using a genetic algorithm in addition to carrying out the prediction, which can occur based on the quantity and position of the inserted letters and even placement in the sentence, ensuring the sequence of ideas using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The prototype optimizes data entry, being a component of assistive technology for the textual formulation, detecting errors, seeking solutions and informing the user of accurate predictions quickly and effectively through machine learning.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, neural networks, word prediction, machine learning

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Authors: Mikhail O. Eremin

Abstract:

Present work is devoted to experimental study and numerical modelling of failure of rocks typical for Kuzbass coal basin (Russia). The main goal was to define strength and deformation characteristics of rocks on the base of uniaxial compression and three-point bending loadings and then to build a mathematical model of failure process for both types of loading. Depending on particular physical-mechanical characteristics typical rocks of Kuzbass coal basin (sandstones, siltstones, mudstones, etc. of different series – Kolchuginsk, Tarbagansk, Balohonsk) manifest brittle and quasi-brittle character of failure. The strength characteristics for both tension and compression are found. Other characteristics are also found from the experiment or taken from literature reviews. On the base of obtained characteristics and structure (obtained from microscopy) the mathematical and structural models are built and numerical modelling of failure under different types of loading is carried out. Effective characteristics obtained from modelling and character of failure correspond to experiment and thus, the mathematical model was verified. An Instron 1185 machine was used to carry out the experiments. Mathematical model includes fundamental conservation laws of solid mechanics – mass, impulse, energy. Each rock has a sufficiently anisotropic structure, however, each crystallite might be considered as isotropic and then a whole rock model has a quasi-isotropic structure. This idea gives an opportunity to use the Hooke’s law inside of each crystallite and thus explicitly accounting for the anisotropy of rocks and the stress-strain state at loading. Inelastic behavior is described in frameworks of two different models: von Mises yield criterion and modified Drucker-Prager yield criterion. The damage accumulation theory is also implemented in order to describe a failure process. Obtained effective characteristics of rocks are used then for modelling of rock mass evolution when mining is carried out both by an open-pit or underground opening.

Keywords: damage accumulation, Drucker-Prager yield criterion, failure, mathematical modelling, three-point bending, uniaxial compression

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Authors: Kassaye Balkew Workagegn, Gunnar Klemetsdal, Hans Magnus Gjøen

Abstract:

In this study, the first objective was to investigate whether non-lethal or non-invasive methods, utilizing body measurements, could be used to efficiently predict fillet weight and fillet yield for a complete diallel cross of three Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) strains collected from three Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes, Lakes Ziway, Koka and Chamo. The second objective was to estimate heritability of body weight, actual and predicted fillet traits, as well as genetic correlations between these traits. A third goal was to estimate additive, reciprocal, and heterosis effects for body weight and the various fillet traits. As in females, early sexual maturation was widespread, only 958 male fish from 81 full-sib families were used, both for the prediction of fillet traits and in genetic analysis. The prediction equations from body measurements were established by forward regression analysis, choosing models with the least predicted residual error sums of squares (PRESS). The results revealed that body measurements on live Nile tilapia is well suited to predict fillet weight but not fillet yield (R²= 0.945 and 0.209, respectively), but both models were seemingly unbiased. The genetic analyses were carried out with bivariate, multibreed models. Body weight, fillet weight, and predicted fillet weight were all estimated with a heritability ranged from 0.23 to 0.28, and with genetic correlations close to one. Contrary, fillet yield was only to a minor degree heritable (0.05), while predicted fillet yield obtained a heritability of 0.19, being a resultant of two body weight variables known to have high heritability. The latter trait was estimated with genetic correlations to body weight and fillet weight traits larger than 0.82. No significant differences among strains were found for their additive genetic, reciprocal, or heterosis effects, while total heterosis effects were estimated as positive and significant (P < 0.05). As a conclusion, prediction of prediction of fillet weight based on body measurements is possible, but not for fillet yield.

Keywords: additive, fillet traits, genetic correlation, heritability, heterosis, prediction, reciprocal

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Authors: Meysam Lak, Mohammad Fatehi Marji, Alireza Yarahamdi Bafghi, Abolfazl Abdollahipour

Abstract:

A wellbore is a hole that is drilled to aid in the exploration and recovery of natural resources including oil and gas. Occasionally, in order to increase productivity index and porosity of the wellbore and reservoir, the well stimulation methods have been used. Hydraulic fracturing is one of these methods. Moreover, several explosions at the end of the well can stimulate the reservoir and create fractures around it. In this study, crack initiation in rock around the wellbore has been numerically modeled due to explosion. One, two, three, and four pairs of explosion have been set at the end of the wellbore on its wall. After each stage of the explosion, results have been presented and discussed. Results show that this method can initiate and probably propagate several fractures around the wellbore.

Keywords: crack initiation, explosion, finite difference modelling, well productivity

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Authors: Nataša Kalajdžija, Strahinja Kovačević, Davor Lončar, Sanja Podunavac Kuzmanović, Lidija Jevrić

Abstract:

In order to investigate the relationship between retention and structure, a quantitative Structure Retention Relationships (QSRRs) study was applied for the prediction of retention times of a set of 23 secoestrane derivatives in a reversed-phase thin-layer chromatography. After the calculation of molecular descriptors, a suitable set of molecular descriptors was selected by using step-wise multiple linear regressions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method was employed to model the nonlinear structure-activity relationships. The ANN technique resulted in 5-6-1 ANN model with the correlation coefficient of 0.98. We found that the following descriptors: Critical pressure, total energy, protease inhibition, distribution coefficient (LogD) and parameter of lipophilicity (miLogP) have a significant effect on the retention times. The prediction results are in very good agreement with the experimental ones. This approach provided a new and effective method for predicting the chromatographic retention index for the secoestrane derivatives investigated.

Keywords: lipophilicity, QSRR, RP TLC retention, secoestranes

Procedia PDF Downloads 425