Search results for: panel stochastic frontier models

Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jaehyouk Choi

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The idea of adding metallic energy dissipaters to a structure to absorb a large part of the seismic energy began four decades ago. There are several types of metal-based devices conceived as dampers for the seismic energy absorber whereby damages to the major structural components could be minimized for both new and existing structures. This paper aimed to develop and evaluate structural performance of both stiffened and non stiffened circular shear panel damper for passive seismic energy protection by inelastic deformation. Structural evaluation was done using commercially available nonlinear FE simulation program. Diameter-to-thickness ratio is employed as main parameter to investigate the hysteresis performance of stiffened and unstiffened circular shear panel. Depending on these parameters three different buckling mode and hysteretic behavior was found: yielding prior to buckling without strength degradation, yielding prior to buckling with strength degradation and yielding with buckling and strength degradation which forms pinching at initial displacement. Hence, the hysteresis behavior is identified, specimens which deform without strength degradation so it will be used as passive energy dissipating device in civil engineering structures.

Keywords: circular shear panel damper, FE analysis, hysteretic behavior, large deformation

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Authors: Y. L. Sun, L. Shao, Y. Zhao, H. X. Zhou, W. Z. Lu, J. Li, D. W. Zuo

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This study introduces an ice fixed-abrasive polishing (IFAP) technology. Using silica solution IFAP pad and Al2O3 IFAP pad, orthogonal tests were performed on polishing high-definition display panel glass, respectively. The results show that the polishing efficiency and effect polished with silica solution IFAP pad are better than those polished with Al2O3 IFAP pad. The optimized silica solution IFAP parameters are: polishing pressure 0.1MPa, polishing time 40min, table velocity 80r/min, and the ratio of accelerator and slurry 1:10. Finally, the IFAP mechanism was studied and it suggests by complicated analysis that IFAP is comprehensive effect of mechanical removal and microchemical reaction, combined with fixed abrasive polishing and free abrasive polishing.

Keywords: ice fixed-abrasive polishing, high-definition display panel glass, material removal rate, surface roughness

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Authors: Kachout Mnaouer, Bel Hadj Tahar Jamel, Choubani Fethi

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In this paper, three electric equivalent models to evaluate crosstalk between three-conductor transmission lines are proposed. First, electric equivalent models for three-conductor transmission lines are presented. Secondly, rigorous equations to calculate the per-unit length inductive and capacitive parameters are developed. These models allow us to calculate crosstalk between conductors. Finally, to validate the presented models, we compare the theoretical results with simulation data. Obtained results show that proposed models can be used to predict crosstalk performance.

Keywords: near-end crosstalk, inductive parameter, L, Π, T models

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Authors: Myoung-Jin Lee, Sung-Jin Lee, Young-Kon Park, Jin-Wook Kim, Bo-Kyoung Kim, Song-Hun Chong, Sun-Ii Kim

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The ability to resist the shear strength arises mainly from the web panel of steel girders and as such, the shear buckling strength of these girders has been extensively investigated. For example, Blaser’s reported that when buckling occurs, the tension field has an effect after the buckling strength of the steel is reached. The findings of these studies have been applied by AASHTO, AISC, and to the European Code that provides guidelines for designs aimed at preventing shear buckling. Steel girders are susceptible to corrosion resulting from exposure to natural elements such as rainfall, humidity, and temperature. This corrosion leads to a reduction in the size of the web panel section, thereby resulting in a decrease in the shear strength. The decrease in the panel section has a significant effect on the maintenance section of the bridge. However, in most conventional designs, the influence of corrosion is overlooked during the calculation of the shear buckling strength and hence over-design is common. Therefore, in this study, a steel girder with an A/D of 1:1, as well as a 6-mm-, 16-mm-, and 12-mm-thick web panel, flange, and intermediate reinforcing material, respectively, were used. The total length was set to that (3200 mm) of the default model. The effect of corrosion shear buckling was investigated by determining the volume amount of corrosion, shape of the erosion patterns, and the angular change in the tensile field of the shear buckling strength. This study provides the basic data that will enable designs that incorporate values closer (than those used in most conventional designs) to the actual shear buckling strength.

Keywords: corrosion, shear buckling strength, steel girder, shear strength

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Authors: Francis Mugabi, Kevin Duffy, Joseph J. Y. T Mugisha, Obiora Collins

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Bluetongue virus (BTV) has 27 serotypes, with some of them coexisting in patchy (different) environments, which make its control difficult. Wind-aided midge movement is a known mechanism in the spread of BTV. However, its effects on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes are not clear. Deterministic and stochastic models for r BTV serotypes in n discrete patches connected by midge and/or cattle movement are formulated and analyzed. For the deterministic model without midge and cattle movement, using the comparison principle, it is shown that if the patch reproduction number R0 < 1, i=1,2,...,n, j=1,2,...,r, all serotypes go extinct. If R^j_i0>1, competitive exclusion takes place. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that when the n patches are connected by midge movement, coexistence takes place. To account for demographic and movement variability, the deterministic model is transformed into a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. Utilizing a multitype branching process, it is shown that the midge movement can have a large effect on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes. The probability of coexistence can be brought to zero when the control interventions that directly kill the adult midges are applied. These results indicate the significance of wind-aided midge movement and vector control interventions on the coexistence and control of multiple BTV serotypes in patchy environments.

Keywords: bluetongue virus, coexistence, multiple serotypes, midge movement, branching process

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Authors: Emily Fortune Super, Ameerah Khadaroo, Aurore Bardey

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Fashion models are often assumed to have a glamorous job with limited consideration for their well-being. This study aims to assess the well-being of models through semi-structured interviews with six professional fashion models and six industry professionals. Thematic analysis revealed that although models experienced improved self-confidence, they also reported heightened anxiety levels, body image issues, and the negative influence of modelling on their self-esteem. By contrast, industry professionals reported no or minimum concerns about anxious behaviours or the general well-being of fashion models. Being resilient as a model was perceived as an essential attribute to have by both models and industry professionals as they face recurrent rejection in this industry. These results demonstrate a significant gap in the current understanding of the well-being of fashion models between industry professionals and the models themselves. Findings imply that there is an inherent need for change in the modelling industry to promote and enhance their well-being.

Keywords: body image, fashion industry, modelling, well-being

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Authors: Jonghae Park, Daesung Kim

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The impact of aggressive and conservative working capital‘s strategies on the value and profitability of the firms has been evaluated by applying the panel data regression analysis. The control variables used in the regression models are natural log of firm size, sales growth, and debt. We collected a panel of 13,988 companies listed on the Korea stock market covering the period 2000-2016. The major findings of this study are as follow: 1) We find a significant negative correlation between firm profitability and the number of days inventory (INV) and days accounts payable (AP). The firm’s profitability can also be improved by reducing the number of days of inventory and days accounts payable. 2) We also find a significant positive correlation between firm profitability and the number of days accounts receivable (AR) and cash ratios (CR). In other words, the cash is associated with high corporate profitability. 3) Tobin's analysis showed that only the number of days accounts receivable (AR) and cash ratios (CR) had a significant relationship. In conclusion, companies can increase profitability by reducing INV and increasing AP, but INV and AP did not affect corporate value. In particular, it is necessary to increase CA and decrease AR in order to increase Firm’s profitability and value.

Keywords: working capital, working capital management, firm value, profitability

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Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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Introduced by Shannon in 1948 in the field of information theory as the average rate at which information is produced by a stochastic set of data, the concept of entropy has gained much attention as a measure of uncertainty and unpredictability associated with a dynamical system, eventually depicted by a stochastic process. In particular, the Shannon entropy measures the degree of order/disorder of a given signal and provides useful information about the underlying dynamical process. It has found widespread application in a variety of fields, such as, for example, cryptography, statistical physics and finance. In this regard, many contributions have employed different measures of entropy in an attempt to characterize the financial time series in terms of market efficiency, market crashes and/or financial crises. The Shannon entropy has also been considered as a measure of the risk of a portfolio or as a tool in asset pricing. This work investigates the theoretical link between the Shannon entropy and the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm), stochastic process which recently is the focus of a renewed interest in finance as a driving model of stochastic volatility. In particular, after exploring the current state of research in this area and highlighting some of the key results and open questions that remain, we show a well-defined relationship between the Shannon (log)entropy and the memory function H(t) of the mBm. In details, we allow both the length of time series and time scale to change over analysis to study how the relation modify itself. On the one hand, applications are developed after generating surrogates of mBm trajectories based on different memory functions; on the other hand, an empirical analysis of several international stock indexes, which confirms the previous results, concludes the work.

Keywords: Shannon entropy, multifractional Brownian motion, Hurst–Holder exponent, stock indexes

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Authors: Daisy Biswas, Samar Kanti Bose, M. Mozaffar Hossain

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The development of value added composite products from bamboo with the application of gluing technology can play a vital role in economic development and also in forest resource conservation of any country. In this study, the gluability of Bambusa balcooa and Bambusa vulgaris, two locally grown bamboo species of Bangladesh was assessed. As the culm wall thickness of bamboos decreases from bottom to top, a culm portion of up to 5.4 m and 3.6 m were used from the base of B. balcooa and B. vulgaris, respectively, to get rectangular strips of uniform thickness. The color of the B. vulgaris strips was yellowish brown and that of B. balcooa was reddish brown. The strips were treated in borax-boric, bleaching and carbonization for extending the service life of the laminates. The preservative treatments changed the color of the strips. Borax–boric acid treated strips were reddish brown. When bleached with hydrogen peroxide, the color of the strips turned into whitish yellow. Carbonization produced dark brownish strips having coffee flavor. Chemical constituents for untreated and treated strips were determined. B. vulgaris was more acidic than B. balcooa. Then the treated strips were used to develop three-layered bamboo laminated panel. Urea formaldehyde (UF) and polyvinyl acetate (PVA) were used as binder. The shear strength and abrasive resistance of the panel were evaluated. It was found that the shear strength of the UF-panel was higher than the PVA-panel for all treatments. Between the species, gluability of B. vulgaris was better and in some cases better than hardwood species. The abrasive resistance of B. balcooa is slightly higher than B. vulgaris; however, the latter was preferred as it showed well gluability. The panels could be used as structural panel, floor tiles, flat pack furniture component, and wall panel etc. However, further research on durability and creep behavior of the product in service condition is warranted.

Keywords: Bambusa balcooa, Bambusa vulgaris, polyvinyl acetate, urea formaldehyde

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Authors: Mohammed Aijaz

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In industries, to transfer fragile materials like glasses, a holding, lifting, and manipulation system are required. In this report, we designed and analysed a suction cup holding, lifting, and manipulation system that is attached to a head plate and must be able to grip/hold securely, the largest glass panel with 3m x 2.5m x 20mm thick with a mass of 115 kg. The system is able to rotate the panel through 180 degrees in the X, Y, and Z axis in any direction from the outer reach of the robotic arm. The structural analysis is performed to verify the structural strength of the suction cup’s head plate system.

Keywords: designing, mechanical, engineering, suction

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Authors: Vishal Jaunky, Jonas Grafström

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The development of the European Union’s (EU) single economic market and rapid technological change has resulted in major structural changes in EU’s member states economies. The general liberalization process that the countries has undergone together has convinced the governments of the member states of need to upgrade their economic and training systems in order to be able to face the economic globalization. Several signs of economic convergence have been found but less is known about the knowledge production. This paper addresses the convergence pattern of technological innovation in 13 European Union (EU) states over the time period 1990-2011 by means of parametric and non-parametric techniques. Parametric approaches revolve around the neoclassical convergence theories. This paper reveals divergence of both the β and σ types. Further, we found evidence of stochastic divergence and non-parametric convergence approach such as distribution dynamics shows a tendency towards divergence. This result is supported with the occurrence of γ-divergence. The policies of the EU to reduce technological gap among its member states seem to be missing its target, something that can have negative long run consequences for the market.

Keywords: convergence, patents, panel data, European union

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Authors: Loïc Warscotte, Jehan Boreux

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The scientific literature of changepoint detection is vast. Today, a lot of methods are available to detect abrupt changes or slight drift in a signal, based on CUSUM or EWMA charts, for example. However, these methods rely on strong assumptions, such as the stationarity of the stochastic underlying process, or even the independence and Gaussian distributed noise at each time. Recently, the breakthrough research on locally stationary processes widens the class of studied stochastic processes with almost no assumptions on the signals and the nature of the changepoint. Despite the accurate description of the mathematical aspects, this methodology quickly suffers from impractical time and space complexity concerning the signals with high-rate data collection, if the characteristics of the process are completely unknown. In this paper, we then addressed the problem of making this theory usable to our purpose, which is monitoring a high-speed weigh-in-motion system (HS-WIM) towards direct enforcement without supervision. To this end, we first compute bounded approximations of the initial detection theory. Secondly, these approximating bounds are empirically validated by generating many independent long-run stochastic processes. The abrupt changes and the drift are both tested. Finally, this relaxed methodology is tested on real signals coming from a HS-WIM device in Belgium, collected over several months.

Keywords: changepoint, weigh-in-motion, process, non-parametric

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Authors: Alexandra McKinzie, Lucy Brown, Sarah Komanapalli, Sarah Swiezy, Caitlin Bernard

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Background: While 25% of US women will seek an abortion before age 45, targeted laws have led to a decline in abortion clinics, subsequently leaving 96% of Indiana counties and the 70% of Hoosier women residing in these counties without access to services they desperately need.1,2 Despite the need for a physician workforce that is educated and able to provide full-spectrum reproductive health care, few medical institutions have a standardized family planning and abortion pre-clinical curriculum. Methods: A Qualtrics survey was disseminated to students from Indiana University School of Medicine (IUSM) to evaluate (1) student interest in curriculum reform, (2) self-assessed preparedness to counsel on contraceptive and pregnancy options, and (3) preferred modality of instruction for family planning and abortion topics. Based on the pre-panel survey feedback, a case-based pregnancy options counseling panel will be implemented in the students’ pre-clinical, didactic course Endocrine, Reproductive, Musculoskeletal, Dermatologic Systems (ERMD) in February 2022. A Qualtrics post-panel survey will be disseminated to evaluate students’ perceived efficacy and quality of the panel, as well as their self-assessed preparedness to counsel on pregnancy options. Results: Participants in the pre-panel survey (n=303) were primarily female (61.72%) and White (74.43%). Across all class levels, many (60.80%) students expected to learn about family planning and abortion in their pre-clinical education. While most (84-88%) participants felt prepared to counsel about common, non-controversial pharmacotherapies (e.g. beta-blockers and diuretics), only 20% of students felt prepared to counsel on abortion options. Overall, 85.67% of students believed that IUSM should enhance its reproductive health coverage in pre-clinical, didactic courses. Traditional lectures, panels, and direct clinical exposure were the most popular instructional modalities. Expected Results: The authors predict that following the panel, students will indicate improved confidence in providing pregnancy options counseling. Additionally, students will provide constructive feedback on the structure and content of the panel for incorporation into future years’ curriculum. Conclusions: IUSM students overwhelmingly expressed interest in expanding their pre-clinical curriculum’s coverage of family planning and abortion topics. To specifically improve students’ self-assessed preparedness to provide pregnancy options counseling and address students’ self-cited learning gaps, a case-based provider panel session will be implemented in response to students’ preferred modality feedback.

Keywords: options counseling, family planning, abortion, curriculum reform, case-based panel

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Authors: Salinee Thumronglaohapun

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The proper number and appropriate locations of service centers can save cost, raise revenue and gain more satisfaction from customers. Establishing service centers is high-cost and difficult to relocate. In long-term planning periods, several factors may affect the service. One of the most critical factors is uncertain demand of customers. The opened service centers need to be capable of serving customers and making a profit although the demand in each period is changed. In this work, the capacitated location-allocation problem with stochastic demand is considered. A mathematical model is formulated to determine suitable locations of service centers and their allocation to maximize total profit for multiple planning periods. Two heuristic methods, a local search and genetic algorithm, are used to solve this problem. For the local search, five different chances to choose each type of moves are applied. For the genetic algorithm, three different replacement strategies are considered. The results of applying each method to solve numerical examples are compared. Both methods reach to the same best found solution in most examples but the genetic algorithm provides better solutions in some cases.

Keywords: location-allocation problem, stochastic demand, local search, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Adeleke Omolade

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The study investigated the impacts of capital goods' import and human capital on the economic growth of the Sub Sahahra Africa (SSA). 30 countries were used in the Panel- ARDL analysis where economic growth is the dependent variables and capital goods' import, human capital, primary export, investment exchange rate, among others were used as the independent variables. The result from the panel analysis indicates that capital goods' import will significantly and positively influence economic growth but human capital fails to have significant positive impact on economic growth of the SSA. Earlier the trend analysis and the correlation results have shown that there is a weak association between capital goods' import and human capital in the SSA. The results offer an expository analysis that reveals that the quality of the human capital is very germane to the effective utilization of capital goods' import for the purpose of growth in a primary goods' export dominated region like the SSA.

Keywords: capital goods import, economic growth, human capital, Sub-Sahara Africa

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Authors: Mehdi Jalalpour, Mazdak Tootkaboni

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We present a computationally efficient method for reliability-based topology optimization under material properties uncertainty, which is assumed to be lognormally distributed and correlated within the domain. Computational efficiency is achieved through estimating the response statistics with stochastic perturbation of second order, using these statistics to fit an appropriate distribution that follows the empirical distribution of the response, and employing an efficient gradient-based optimizer. The proposed algorithm is utilized for design of new structures and the changes in the optimized topology is discussed for various levels of target reliability and correlation strength. Predictions were verified thorough comparison with results obtained using Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: material uncertainty, stochastic perturbation, structural reliability, topology optimization

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Authors: Zainab Almukhtar, Adel Merabet

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In this paper, a method for maximum power point tracking of a photovoltaic energy conversion system is presented. This method is based on using the difference between the power from the solar panel and an estimated power value to control the DC-DC converter of the photovoltaic system. The difference is continuously compared with a preset error permitted value. If the power difference is more than the error, the estimated power is multiplied by a factor and the operation is repeated until the difference is less or equal to the threshold error. The difference in power will be used to trigger a DC-DC boost converter in order to raise the voltage to where the maximum power point is achieved. The proposed method was experimentally verified through a PV energy conversion system driven by the OPAL-RT real time controller. The method was tested on varying radiation conditions and load requirements, and the Photovoltaic Panel was operated at its maximum power in different conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: control system, error, solar panel, MPPT tracking

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Authors: Muhammad Zafarullah Khan, Khalid Nawab, Shahid Ali, Mubashir Habib, Shakirullah Khan, Sajjad Ahmad, Javid Ullah, Ikramul Haq

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Professionally competent Agriculture Officers (AOs) can play an important role in the development of agriculture in the country. This study was conducted in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) (Pakistan) to assess professional competencies of Agriculture Officers (AOs) in January 2007. Data were collected from all (112) AOs through a mailed questionnaire. The study examines existing level of professional competencies of AOs and the required level of possessed competencies needed by them for their job performance in the areas of participatory extension methodologies. Both the possessed and required levels of competencies were scaled from 1-5 on Liker scale, 1 being very low and 5 being very high. . The study revealed a numerical difference between possessed and required levels regarding the professional competencies of the participatory extension methodology. It was also observed that higher levels of job experience increase the professional competencies in participatory extension methodology. It is recommended that periodic training and refresher courses are arranged for AOs so that their learning may become more practicable to diffuse agricultural innovations among members of participatory learning groups and convey modern technologies to the end users.

Keywords: professional competency, agriculture officers, assessment and participatory extension methodology, participatory extension

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Authors: Jin-Qu Chen, Jie Liu, Yong Yin, Zi-Qi Ju, Yu-Yao Wu

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Increase in travel fare and station’s failure will have huge impact on passengers’ travel. The Urban Rail Transit (URT) station’s accessibility reliability under increasing travel fare and station failure are analyzed in this paper. Firstly, the passenger’s travel path is resumed based on stochastic user equilibrium and Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data. Secondly, calculating station’s importance by combining LeaderRank algorithm and Ratio of Station Affected Passenger Volume (RSAPV), and then the station’s accessibility evaluation indicators are proposed based on the analysis of passenger’s travel characteristic. Thirdly, station’s accessibility under different scenarios are measured and rate of accessibility change is proposed as station’s accessibility reliability indicator. Finally, the accessibility of Hangzhou metro stations is analyzed by the formulated models. The result shows that Jinjiang station and Liangzhu station are the most important and convenient station in the Hangzhou metro, respectively. Station failure and increase in travel fare and station failure have huge impact on station’s accessibility, except for increase in travel fare. Stations in Hangzhou metro Line 1 have relatively worse accessibility reliability and Fengqi Road station’s accessibility reliability is weakest. For Hangzhou metro operational department, constructing new metro line around Line 1 and protecting Line 1’s station preferentially can effective improve the accessibility reliability of Hangzhou metro.

Keywords: automatic fare collection data, AFC, station’s accessibility reliability, stochastic user equilibrium, urban rail transit, URT

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

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The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors

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Authors: Satoshi Nishimura

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Although much information has been garnered from the genomes of humans and mice, it remains difficult to extend that information to explain physiological and pathological phenomena. This is because the processes underlying life are by nature stochastic and fluctuate with time. Thus, we developed novel "in vivo molecular imaging" method based on single and two-photon microscopy. We visualized and analyzed many life phenomena, including common adult diseases. We integrated the knowledge obtained, and established new models that will serve as the basis for new minimally invasive therapeutic approaches.

Keywords: two photon microscope, intravital visualization, thrombus, artery

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Authors: Hyunsun Lee, Yi Zhu

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Wireless ad-hoc network is a decentralized type of temporary machine-to-machine connection that is spontaneous or impromptu so that it does not rely on any fixed infrastructure and centralized administration. As unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also called drones, have recently become more accessible and widely utilized in military and civilian domains such as surveillance, search and detection missions, traffic monitoring, remote filming, product delivery, to name a few. The communication between these UAVs become possible and materialized through Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs). However, due to the high mobility of UAVs that may cause different types of transmission interference, it is vital to design robust routing protocols for FANETs. In this talk, the multicast routing method based on a modified stochastic branching process is proposed. The stochastic branching process is often used to describe an early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, and the reproductive number in the process is used to classify the outbreak into a major or minor outbreak. The reproductive number to regulate the local transmission rate is adapted and modified for flying ad-hoc network communication. The performance of the proposed routing method is compared with other well-known methods such as flooding method and gossip method based on three measures; average reachability, average node usage and average branching factor. The proposed routing method achieves average reachability very closer to flooding method, average node usage closer to gossip method, and outstanding average branching factor among methods. It can be concluded that the proposed multicast routing scheme is more efficient than well-known routing schemes such as flooding and gossip while it maintains high performance.

Keywords: Flying Ad-hoc Networks, Multicast Routing, Stochastic Branching Process, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

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Authors: N. Massoum, B. Bouazza

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In this paper, we have developed a numerical simulation model to describe the electrical properties of GaInP MESFET with submicron gate (Lg = 0.5 µm). This model takes into account the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the load in the short channel and the law effect of mobility as a function of electric field. Simulation software based on a stochastic method such as Monte Carlo has been established. The results are discussed and compared with those of the experiment. The result suggests experimentally that, in a very small gate length in our devices (smaller than 40 nm), short-channel tunneling explains the degradation of transistor performance, which was previously enhanced by velocity overshoot.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, transient electron transport, MESFET device, simulation software

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Authors: Mouldi Djelassi, Jamel Boukhatem

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Background: A relation has been established between Islamic banks' activities and interest rates. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of interest rates on the deposits and loans held by Islamic and conventional banks in Saudi Arabia. Methods: A time series data was performed over the period 2008Q1-2020Q2 on eight conventional banks and four Islamic banks. The impacts of interest rate shocks on deposits and loans were identified through panel vector autoregressive models. Results: Impulse response function analysis showed that increasing interest rates reduce loans and conventional deposits. For Islamic banks, deposits are more affected by interest rates than lending. Variance decomposition analysis revealed that deposits contribute to 61% of the Islamic financing variation and only 25% of the conventional loans. Conclusion: Interest rates impacted Islamic banks especially through deposits, which is inconsistent with the theoretical framework. Islamic deposits played an important role in Islamic financing variation and may provide to be a channel for the transmission of the monetary policy in a dual banking system. Monetary policy in Saudi Arabia works in part through “credits” (conventional bank credits) as well as through “money” (conventional and Islamic bank deposits).

Keywords: Islamic banking, interest rates, monetary policy transmission, panel VAR

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Authors: K. C. R. Perera, B. M. Hapuwatte

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This paper presents an effective method to divide panels for mesh-less methods of source, vortex and doublet panel methods. In this research study the physical domain of air-foils were transformed into computational domain of a circle using conformal mapping technique of Joukowsky transformation. Then the circle is divided into panels of equal length and the co-ordinates were remapped into physical domain of the air-foil. With this method the leading edge and the trailing edge of the air-foil is panelled with a high density of panels and the rest of the body is panelled with low density of panels. The high density of panels in the leading edge and the trailing edge will increase the accuracy of the solutions obtained from panel methods where the fluid flow at the leading and trailing edges are complex.

Keywords: conformal mapping, Joukowsky transformation, physical domain, computational domain

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Authors: Camila Plaza, Stefan Felder

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In October 2014, the TARMED reform was implemented in Switzerland. In an effort to even out the financial standing of general practitioners (including pediatricians) relative to that of specialists in the outpatient sector, the reform tackled two aspects: on the one hand, GPs would be able to bill an additional 9 CHF per patient, once per consult per day. This is referred to as the surcharge position. As a second measure, it reduced the fees for certain technical services targeted to specialists (e.g., imaging, surgical technical procedures, etc.). Given the fee-for-service reimbursement system in Switzerland, we predict that physicians reacted to the economic incentives of the reform by increasing the consults per patient and decreasing the average amount of time per consult. Within this framework, our treatment group is formed by GPs and our control group by those specialists who were not affected by the reform. Using monthly insurance claims panel data aggregated at the physician praxis level (provided by SASIS AG), for the period of January 2013-December 2015, we run difference in difference panel data models with physician and time fixed effects in order to test for the causal effects of the reform. We account for seasonality, and control for physician characteristics such as age, gender, specialty, and physician experience. Furthermore, we run the models on subgroups of physicians within our sample so as to account for heterogeneity and treatment intensities. Preliminary results support our hypothesis. We find evidence of an increase in consults per patients and a decrease in time per consult. Robustness checks do not significantly alter the results for our outcome variable of consults per patient. However, we do find a smaller effect of the reform for time per consult. Thus, the results of this paper could provide policymakers a better understanding of physician behavior and their sensitivity to financial incentives of reforms (both past and future) under the current reimbursement system.

Keywords: difference in differences, financial incentives, health reform, physician behavior

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Authors: Ho Yuan-Hong, Huang Chiung-Ju

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This study conducts simulation analyses to find the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan, while factoring in welfare maximization under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The simulation is based on Taiwan's 2001 to 2011 economic data and shows that welfare is maximized at a "debt"⁄"GDP" ratio of 0.2, increases in the "debt"⁄"GDP " ratio leads to increases in both tax and interest rates and decreases in the consumption ratio and working hours. The study results indicate that the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan is 20% of GDP, where if the "debt"⁄"GDP" ratio is greater than 40%, the welfare will be negative and result in welfare loss.

Keywords: debt sustainability, optimal debt ceiling, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, welfare maximization

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

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Authors: D. Calogine, O. Chau, S. Dotti, O. Ramiarinjanahary, P. Rasoavonjy, F. Tovondahiniriko

Abstract:

Mafate is a natural circus in the north-western part of Reunion Island, without an electrical grid and road network. A micro-grid concept is being experimented in this area, composed of a photovoltaic production combined with electrochemical batteries, in order to meet the local population for self-consumption of electricity demands. This work develops a discrete model as well as a stochastic model in order to reach an optimal equilibrium between production and consumptions for a cluster of houses. The management of the energy power leads to a large linearized programming system, where the time interval of interest is 24 hours The experimental data are solar production, storage energy, and the parameters of the different electrical devices and batteries. The unknown variables to evaluate are the consumptions of the various electrical services, the energy drawn from and stored in the batteries, and the inhabitants’ planning wishes. The objective is to fit the solar production to the electrical consumption of the inhabitants, with an optimal use of the energies in the batteries by satisfying as widely as possible the users' planning requirements. In the discrete model, the different parameters and solutions of the linear programming system are deterministic scalars. Whereas in the stochastic approach, the data parameters and the linear programming solutions become random variables, then the distributions of which could be imposed or established by estimation from samples of real observations or from samples of optimal discrete equilibrium solutions.

Keywords: photovoltaic production, power consumption, battery storage resources, random variables, stochastic modeling, estimations of probability distributions, mixed integer linear programming, smart micro-grid, self-consumption of electricity.

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Authors: G. Shahzadi, A. Soulaimani

Abstract:

This research work aims to identify the physical parameters of the constitutive soil model in the design of a rockfill dam by inverse analysis. The best parameters of the constitutive soil model, are those that minimize the objective function, defined as the difference between the measured and numerical results. The Finite Element code (Plaxis) has been utilized for numerical simulation. Polynomial and neural network-based response surfaces have been generated to analyze the relationship between soil parameters and displacements. The performance of surrogate models has been analyzed and compared by evaluating the root mean square error. A comparative study has been done based on objective functions and optimization techniques. Objective functions are categorized by considering measured data with and without uncertainty in instruments, defined by the least square method, which estimates the norm between the predicted displacements and the measured values. Hydro Quebec provided data sets for the measured values of the Romaine-2 dam. Stochastic optimization, an approach that can overcome local minima, and solve non-convex and non-differentiable problems with ease, is used to obtain an optimum value. Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Differential Evolution (DE) are compared for the minimization problem, although all these techniques take time to converge to an optimum value; however, PSO provided the better convergence and best soil parameters. Overall, parameter identification analysis could be effectively used for the rockfill dam application and has the potential to become a valuable tool for geotechnical engineers for assessing dam performance and dam safety.

Keywords: Rockfill dam, parameter identification, stochastic analysis, regression, PLAXIS

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