Search results for: optimal policy

Authors: Eiji Okano, Kazuyuki Inagaki

Abstract:

We revisit Uribe's `Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk' advocating that there is a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and suppressing default. We develop a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with nominal rigidities and compare two de facto inflation stabilization policies, optimal monetary policy and optimal monetary and fiscal policy with the minimizing interest rate spread policy which completely suppress the default. Under the optimal monetary and fiscal policy, not only the nominal interest rate but also the tax rate work to minimize welfare costs through stabilizing inflation. Under the optimal monetary both inflation and output gap are completely stabilized although those are fluctuating under the optimal monetary policy. In addition, volatility in the default rate under the optimal monetary policy is considerably lower than one under the optimal monetary policy. Thus, there is not the SI-SD trade-off. In addition, while the minimizing interest rate spread policy makes inflation rate severely volatile, the optimal monetary and fiscal policy stabilize both the inflation and the default. A trade-off between stabilizing inflation and suppressing default is not so severe what pointed out by Uribe.

Keywords: sovereign risk, optimal monetary policy, fiscal theory of the price level, DSGE

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand

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Authors: Xiangrong Liu, Chuanhui Xiong

Abstract:

With the concern of large pollution emissions from coal-fired power plants and new commitment to green energy, global solar power industry was emerging recently. Due to the advanced technology, the price of solar photovoltaic(PV) module was reduced at a fast rate, which arose an interesting but challenge question to solar supply chain. This research is modeling the inventory strategies for a PV supply chain with a PV manufacturer, an assembler and an end customer. Through characterizing the manufacturer's and PV assembler's optimal decision in decentralized and centralized situation, this study shed light on how to improve supply chain performance through parameters setting in the contract design. The results suggest the assembler to lower the optimal stock level gradually each period before price reduction and set up a newsvendor base-stock policy in all periods after price reduction. As to the PV module manufacturer, a non-stationary produce-up-to policy is optimal.

Keywords: photovoltaic, supply chain, inventory policy, base-stock policy

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Authors: Saeed Poormoaied, Zumbul Atan

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Emergency shipments provide a powerful mechanism to alleviate the risk of imminent stock-outs and can result in substantial benefits in an inventory system. Customer satisfaction and high service level are immediate consequences of utilizing emergency shipments. In this paper, we consider a single-echelon periodic review inventory system consisting of a single local warehouse, being replenished from a central warehouse with ample capacity in an infinite horizon setting. Since the structure of the optimal policy appears to be complicated, we analyze this problem under an order-up-to-S inventory control policy framework, the (S, T) policy, with the emergency shipment consideration. In each period of the periodic review policy, there is a single opportunity at any point of time for the emergency shipment so that in case of stock-outs, an emergency shipment is requested. The goal is to determine the timing and amount of the emergency shipment during a period (emergency shipment policy) as well as the base stock periodic review policy parameters (replenishment policy). We show that how taking advantage of having an emergency shipment during periods improves the performance of the classical (S, T) policy, especially when fixed and unit emergency shipment costs are small. Investigating the structure of the objective function, we develop an exact algorithm for finding the optimal solution. We also provide a heuristic and an approximation algorithm for the periodic review inventory system problem. The experimental analyses indicate that the heuristic algorithm is computationally more efficient than the approximation algorithm, but in terms of the solution efficiency, the approximation algorithm performs very well. We achieve up to 13% cost savings in the (S, T) policy if we apply the proposed emergency shipment policy. Moreover, our computational results reveal that the approximated solution is often within 0.21% of the globally optimal solution.

Keywords: emergency shipment, inventory, periodic review policy, approximation algorithm.

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Authors: A. Abbou, V. Makis, N. Salari

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We study the condition-based maintenance (CBM) problem of a system subject to stochastic deterioration. The system is composed of three units (or modules): (i) Module 1 deterioration follows a Markov process with two operational states and one failure state. The operational states are partially observable through periodic condition monitoring. (ii) Module 2 deterioration follows a Gamma process with a known failure threshold. The deterioration level of this module is fully observable through periodic inspections. (iii) Only the operating age information is available of Module 3. The lifetime of this module has a general distribution. A CBM policy prescribes when to initiate a maintenance intervention and which modules to repair during intervention. Our objective is to determine the optimal CBM policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost of operating the system. This is achieved by formulating a Markov decision process (MDP) and developing the value iteration algorithm for solving the MDP. We provide numerical examples illustrating the cost-effectiveness of the optimal CBM policy through a comparison with heuristic policies commonly found in the literature.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance optimization, Markov decision process, heuristics

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Authors: Lei Zhao, Zhe Yuan, Wenyue Kuang

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This paper studies two-warehouse inventory models for a deteriorating item considering that the demand is influenced by inventory levels. The problem mainly focuses on the optimal order policy and the optimal order cycle with inventory-level-dependent demand in two-warehouse system for retailers. It considers the different deterioration rates and the inventory holding costs in owned warehouse (OW) and rented warehouse (RW), and the conditions of transportation cost, allowed shortage and partial backlogging. Two inventory models are formulated: last-in first-out (LIFO) model and first-in-first-out (FIFO) model based on the policy choices of LIFO and FIFO, and a comparative analysis of LIFO model and FIFO model is made. The study finds that the FIFO policy is more in line with realistic operating conditions. Especially when the inventory holding cost of OW is high, and there is no difference or big difference between deterioration rates of OW and RW, the FIFO policy has better applicability. Meanwhile, this paper considers the differences between the effects of warehouse and shelf inventory levels on demand, and then builds retailers’ inventory decision model and studies the factors of the optimal order quantity, the optimal order cycle and the average inventory cost per unit time. To minimize the average total cost, the optimal dispatching policies are provided for retailers’ decisions.

Keywords: FIFO model, inventory-level-dependent, LIFO model, two-warehouse inventory

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Authors: S. Hamid Mirmohammadi, Shahrazad Tamjidzad

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This paper is concerned with the single-item continuous review inventory system in which demand is stochastic and discrete. The budget consumed for purchasing the ordered items is not restricted but it incurs extra cost when exceeding specific value. The unit purchasing price depends on the quantity ordered under the all-units discounts cost structure. In many actual systems, the budget as a resource which is occupied by the purchased items is limited and the system is able to confront the resource shortage by charging more costs. Thus, considering the resource shortage costs as a part of system costs, especially when the amount of resource occupied by the purchased item is influenced by quantity discounts, is well motivated by practical concerns. In this paper, an optimization problem is formulated for finding the optimal (R, Q) policy, when the system is influenced by the budget limitation and a discount pricing simultaneously. Properties of the cost function are investigated and then an algorithm based on a one-dimensional search procedure is proposed for finding an optimal (R, Q) policy which minimizes the expected system costs .

Keywords: (R, Q) policy, stochastic demand, backorders, limited resource, quantity discounts

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, G. B. Akram Khaleghei

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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1, which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM, has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, semi-Markov decision process, multivariate Bayesian control chart, partially observable system, two-unit system

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Authors: Sunantha Teyarachakul

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We consider the worker-learning Newsvendor Model, under the case of lost-sales for unmet demand, with the research objective of proposing the cost-minimization order policy and lot size, scheduled to arrive at the beginning of the selling-period. In general, the New Vendor Model is used to find the optimal order quantity for the perishable items such as fashionable products or those with seasonal demand or short-life cycles. Technically, it is used when the product demand is stochastic and available for the single selling-season, and when there is only a one time opportunity for the vendor to purchase, with possibly of long ordering lead-times. Our work differs from the classical Newsvendor Model in that we incorporate the human factor (specifically worker learning) and its influence over the costs of processing units into the model. We describe this by using the well-known Wright’s Learning Curve. Most of the assumptions of the classical New Vendor Model are still maintained in our work, such as the constant per-unit cost of leftover and shortage, the zero initial inventory, as well as the continuous time. Our problem is challenging in the way that the best order quantity in the classical model, which is balancing the over-stocking and under-stocking costs, is no longer optimal. Specifically, when adding the cost-saving from worker learning to such expected total cost, the convexity of the cost function will likely not be maintained. This has called for a new way in determining the optimal order policy. In response to such challenges, we found a number of characteristics related to the expected cost function and its derivatives, which we then used in formulating the optimal ordering policy. Examples of such characteristics are; the optimal order quantity exists and is unique if the demand follows a Uniform Distribution; if the demand follows the Beta Distribution with some specific properties of its parameters, the second derivative of the expected cost function has at most two roots; and there exists the specific level of lot size that satisfies the first order condition. Our research results could be helpful for analysis of supply chain coordination and of the periodic review system for similar problems.

Keywords: inventory management, Newsvendor model, order policy, worker learning

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Authors: Faisal Algosair

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We examine the role of monetary policy in the presence of commodity price shocks using a Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with price and wage rigidities. The model characterizes a commodity exporter by its degree of export diversification, and explores the following monetary regimes: flexible domestic inflation targeting; flexible Consumer Price Index inflation targeting; exchange rate peg; and optimal rule. An increase in the degree of diversification is found to mitigate responses to commodity shocks. The welfare comparison suggests that a flexible exchange rate regime under the optimal rule is preferred to an exchange rate peg. However, monetary policy provides limited stabilization effects in an economy with low degree of export diversification.

Keywords: business cycle, commodity price, exchange rate, global financial cycle

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Authors: Paule Olivia Akotto

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The recent literature suggests spending between 50%-85% of oil rents. However, there are not yet clear guidelines for allocating this windfall in the public investment system, while most of the resource-rich countries fail to improve their intergenerational mobility. We study a design of the optimal spending system in Senegal, a low-income developing country featuring newly discovered oil fields and low intergenerational mobility. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model in which rural and urban (Dakar and other urban centers henceforth OUC) households face different health, education, and employment opportunities based on their location, affecting their intergenerational mobility. The model captures the relationship between oil rents, public investment, and multidimensional inequality of opportunity. The government invests oil rents in three broad sectors: health and education, road and industries, and agriculture. Through endogenous productivity externality and human capital accumulation, our model generates the predominant position of Dakar and OUC households in terms of access to health, education, and employment in line with Senegal data. Rural households are worse off in all dimensions. We compute the optimal spending policy under two sets of simulation scenarios. Under the current Senegal public investment strategy, which weighs more health and education investments, we find that the reform maximizing the decline in inequality of opportunity between households, frontloads investment during the first eight years of the oil exploitation and spends the perpetual value of oil wealth thereafter. We will then identify the marginal winners and losers associated with this policy and its redistributive implications. Under our second set of scenarios, we will test whether the Senegalese economy can reach better equality of opportunity outcomes under this frontloading reform, by allowing the sectoral shares of investment to vary. The trade-off will be between cutting human capital investment in favor of agricultural and productive infrastructure or increasing the former. We will characterize the optimal policy by specifying where the higher weight should be. We expect that the optimal policy of the second set strictly dominates in terms of equality of opportunity, the optimal policy computed under the current investment strategy. Finally, we will quantify this optimal policy's aggregate and distributional effects on poverty, well-being, and gender earning gaps.

Keywords: developing countries, general equilibrium, inequality of opportunity, oil rents

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Authors: Devasheesh Mathur

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The presentation reviews the literature on the phenomenon of policy innovation. Policy innovation refers to a shift in the way policy is made or executed. The paper covers comprehensively on the definition and also the various types of policy innovations. The emphasis is on the antecedents or the determinants of innovation in policies. The author has then made an effort to discover the knowledge gap in the field of policy innovation so as to identify the future scope of research. The objective is to lend more clarity in the area of policy innovation and help in creating a framework for policy-makers as well as academics.

Keywords: literature review, policy innovation, determinants, antecedents

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Authors: V. Makis, L. Jafari

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In this paper, we develop an optimal Bayesian chart to control the expected number of defects per inspection unit in production processes with long production runs. We formulate this control problem in the optimal stopping framework. The objective is to determine the optimal stopping rule minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time considering partial information obtained from the process sampling at regular epochs. We prove the optimality of the control limit policy, i.e., the process is stopped and the search for assignable causes is initiated when the posterior probability that the process is out of control exceeds a control limit. An algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process framework is developed to calculate the optimal control limit and the corresponding average cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the developed optimal control chart and to compare it with the traditional u-chart.

Keywords: Bayesian u-chart, economic design, optimal stopping, semi-Markov decision process, statistical process control

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Authors: Maria Kralova, Michal Palecek

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We have detected factors leading to recidivism (the Czech Republic data). The employment during imprisonment turned out to be the most significant predictor with a positive effect on reduction of a rate of recidivism. Accordingly, we mainly focus on this predictor and its economic consequences. Smart public policy can cut government costs dramatically as more than a half of prisoners in the Czech Republic are recidivists. The operating cost cut of the Czech prison service could be CZK 127,680,000 (USD 5,889,623) in 2013 if a public policy had been set smarter.

Keywords: cost-cut, effective, optimal, public policy, reducing recidivism

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Authors: Jing Zhang, Jie Chen

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In this paper, we deal with the optimal I/O point location in an automated parking system. In this system, the S/R machine (storage and retrieve machine) travels independently in vertical and horizontal directions. Based on the characteristics of the parking system and the basic principle of AS/RS system (Automated Storage and Retrieval System), we obtain the continuous model in units of time. For the single command cycle using the randomized storage policy, we calculate the probability density function for the system travel time and thus we develop the travel time model. And we confirm that the travel time model shows a good performance by comparing with discrete case. Finally in this part, we establish the optimal model by minimizing the expected travel time model and it is shown that the optimal location of the I/O point is located at the middle of the left-hand above corner.

Keywords: parking system, optimal location, response time, S/R machine

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Authors: Ming Luo

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In this real world, a manufacturer may produce more than one product. The products produced by the same manufacturer may share the same type of parts, similar design, and be produced in the same factory, i.e. some common causes. From the perspective of warranty management, the frequencies of those products’ warranty claims may have statistical dependence caused by the common causes. Warranty policy optimisation in the existing research, majorly, has not considered such dependence, which may increase bias in decision making. In the market, renewing warranty policies are provided to some unrepairable products and consumer electronic products. This paper optimises the renewing warranty policy collectively in a multi-product scenario with a consideration of the dependence among the warranty claims of the products produced by the same manufacturer. The existence of the optimal solution is proved. Numerical examples are used to validate the applicability of the proposed methods.

Keywords: mean-risk framework, modern portfolio theory, renewing warranty policy, warranty policy optimisation

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Authors: Jian Shao

Abstract:

The effect of entrepreneurship on economic, innovation, and employment has been widely acknowledged by scholars and governments. As an essential factor of influencing entrepreneurship activities, entrepreneurship policy creates a conducive environment to support and develop entrepreneurship. However, the challenge in developing entrepreneurship policy is that policy is normally a combination of many different goals and instruments. Instead of examining the effect of individual policy instruments, we argue that attention to a policy mix is necessary. In recent years, much attention has been focused on comparing a single policy instrument to a policy mix, evaluating the interactions between different instruments within a mix or assessment of particular policy mixes. However, another required step in understanding policy mixes is to understand how and why mixes evolve and change over time and to determine whether any changes are an improvement. In this paper, we try to trace the development of the policy mix for entrepreneurship in China by mapping the policy goals and instruments and reveal the process of policy mix changing over time. We find two main process mechanisms of the entrepreneurship policy mix in China: patching and stretching. Compared with policy repackaging, patching and stretching are more realistic processes in the real world of the policy mix, and they are possible to achieve effectiveness by avoiding conflicts and promoting synergies among policy goals and instruments.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, China, policy design, policy mix, policy patching

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Authors: Sie Long Kek, Wah June Leong, Kok Lay Teo

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Linear quadratic Gaussian model is a standard mathematical model for the stochastic optimal control problem. The combination of the linear quadratic estimation and the linear quadratic regulator allows the state estimation and the optimal control policy to be designed separately. This is known as the separation principle. In this paper, an efficient computational method is proposed to solve the linear quadratic Gaussian problem. In our approach, the Hamiltonian function is defined, and the necessary conditions are derived. In addition to this, the output error is defined and the least-square optimization problem is introduced. By determining the first-order necessary condition, the gradient of the sum squares of output error is established. On this point of view, the stochastic approximation approach is employed such that the optimal control policy is updated. Within a given tolerance, the iteration procedure would be stopped and the optimal solution of the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem is obtained. For illustration, an example of the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem is studied. The result shows the efficiency of the approach proposed. In conclusion, the applicability of the approach proposed for solving the linear quadratic Gaussian problem is highly demonstrated.

Keywords: iteration procedure, least squares solution, linear quadratic Gaussian, output error, stochastic approximation

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Authors: Ramin Mansouri

Abstract:

Due to the contrast of rivers discharge regime with water demands, one of the best ways to use water resources is to regulate the natural flow of the rivers and supplying water needs to construct dams. Optimal utilization of reservoirs, consideration of multiple important goals together at the same is of very high importance. To study about analyzing this method, statistical data of Bakhtiari and Roudbar dam over 46 years (1955 until 2001) is used. Initially an appropriate objective function was specified and using DE algorithm, the rule curve was developed. In continue, operation policy using rule curves was compared to standard comparative operation policy. The proposed method distributed the lack to the whole year and lowest damage was inflicted to the system. The standard deviation of monthly shortfall of each year with the proposed algorithm was less deviated than the other two methods. The Results show that median values for the coefficients of F and Cr provide the optimum situation and cause DE algorithm not to be trapped in local optimum. The most optimal answer for coefficients are 0.6 and 0.5 for F and Cr coefficients, respectively. After finding the best combination of coefficients values F and CR, algorithms for solving the independent populations were examined. For this purpose, the population of 4, 25, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 members were studied in two generations (G=50 and 100). result indicates that the generation number 200 is suitable for optimizing. The increase in time per the number of population has almost a linear trend, which indicates the effect of population in the runtime algorithm. Hence specifying suitable population to obtain an optimal results is very important. Standard operation policy had better reversibility percentage, but inflicts severe vulnerability to the system. The results obtained in years of low rainfall had very good results compared to other comparative methods.

Keywords: reservoirs, differential evolution, dam, Optimal operation

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Authors: Adel Nikfarjam, Hamed Tayebi, Sadoullah Ebrahimnejad

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This paper considers a two-echelon inventory system with a number of warehouses and a single retailer. The retailer replenishes its required items from warehouses, and assembles them into a single final product. We assume that each warehouse supplies only one kind of the raw material for the retailer. The demand process of the final product is assumed to be Poissson, and unsatisfied demand of the final product will be lost. The retailer applies one-for-one-period ordering policy which is also known as (1, T) ordering policy. In this policy the retailer orders to each warehouse a fixed quantity of each item at fixed time intervals, which the fixed quantity is equal to the utilization of the item in the final product. Since, this policy eliminates all demand uncertainties at the upstream echelon, the standard lot sizing model can be applied at all warehouses. In this paper, we calculate the total cost function of the inventory system. Then, based on this function, we present a procedure to obtain the optimal time interval between two consecutive order placements from retailer to the warehouses, and the optimal order quantities of warehouses (assuming that there are positive ordering costs at warehouses). Finally, we present some numerical examples, and conduct numerical sensitivity analysis for cost parameters.

Keywords: two-echelon supply chain, multi-vendor-single-buyer inventory system, lost sales, Poisson demand, one-for-one-period policy, lot sizing model

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control

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Authors: Zheni S. Stefanova, Kandethody M. Ramachandran

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With the increasing dependency on our computer devices, we face the necessity of adequate, efficient and effective mechanisms, for protecting our network. There are two main problems that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) attempt to solve. 1) To detect the attack, by analyzing the incoming traffic and inspect the network (intrusion detection). 2) To produce a prompt response when the attack occurs (intrusion prevention). It is critical creating an Intrusion detection model that will detect a breach in the system on time and also challenging making it provide an automatic and with an acceptable delay response at every single stage of the monitoring process. We cannot afford to adopt security measures with a high exploiting computational power, and we are not able to accept a mechanism that will react with a delay. In this paper, we will propose an intrusion response mechanism that is based on artificial intelligence, and more precisely, reinforcement learning techniques (RLT). The RLT will help us to create a decision agent, who will control the process of interacting with the undetermined environment. The goal is to find an optimal policy, which will represent the intrusion response, therefore, to solve the Reinforcement learning problem, using a Q-learning approach. Our agent will produce an optimal immediate response, in the process of evaluating the network traffic.This Q-learning approach will establish the balance between exploration and exploitation and provide a unique, self-learning and strategic artificial intelligence response mechanism for IDS.

Keywords: cyber security, intrusion prevention, optimal policy, Q-learning

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Authors: Chin-Chih Chang

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Many manufacturing systems suffer failures due to complex degradation processes and various environment conditions such as random shocks. Consider an operating system is subject to random shocks and works at random times for successive jobs. When successive jobs often result in production losses and performance deterioration, it would be better to do maintenance or replacement at a planned time. A preventive replacement (PR) policy is presented to replace the system before a failure occurs at a continuous time T. In such a policy, the failure characteristics of the system are designed as follows. Each job would cause a random amount of additive damage to the system, and the system fails when the cumulative damage has exceeded a failure threshold. Suppose that the deteriorating system suffers one of the two types of shocks with age-dependent probabilities: type-I (minor) shock is rectified by a minimal repair, or type-II (catastrophic) shock causes the system to fail. A corrective replacement (CR) is performed immediately when the system fails. In summary, a generalized maintenance model to scheduling replacement plan for an operating system is presented below. PR is carried out at time T, whereas CR is carried out when any type-II shock occurs and the total damage exceeded a failure level. The main objective is to determine the optimal continuous schedule time of preventive replacement through minimizing the mean cost rate function. The existence and uniqueness of optimal replacement policy are derived analytically. It can be seen that the present model is a generalization of the previous models, and the policy with preventive replacement outperforms the one without preventive replacement.

Keywords: preventive replacement, working time, cumulative damage model, minimal repair, imperfect maintenance, optimization

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Authors: Egor E. Nuzhin, Nikolay V. Brilliantov

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We propose an approach for addressing Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems. It combines the ideas of umbrella sampling, borrowed from Monte Carlo technique of computational physics and chemistry, with optimal control methods, and is realized on the base of neural networks. This results in a powerful algorithm, designed to solve hard RL problems – the problems, with long-time delayed reward, state-traps sticking and a lack of terminal states. It outperforms the prominent algorithms, such as PPO, RND, iLQR and VI, which are among the most efficient for the hard problems. The new algorithm deals with a continuous ensemble of agents and expected return, that includes the ensemble entropy. This results in a quick and efficient search of the optimal policy in terms of ”exploration-exploitation trade-off” in the state-action space.

Keywords: umbrella sampling, reinforcement learning, policy gradient, dynamic programming

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Authors: Akshay Paranjape, Nils Plettenberg, Robert Schmitt

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Traditional optimization methods like evolutionary algorithms are widely used in production processes to find an optimal or near-optimal solution of control parameters based on the simulated environment space of a process. These algorithms are computationally intensive and therefore do not provide the opportunity for real-time optimization. This paper utilizes the Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) framework to find an optimal or near-optimal solution for control parameters. A model based on maximum a posteriori policy optimization (Hybrid-MPO) that can handle both numerical and categorical parameters is used as a benchmark for comparison. A comparative study shows that DRL can find optimal solutions of similar quality as compared to evolutionary algorithms while requiring significantly less time making them preferable for real-time optimization. The results are confirmed in a large-scale validation study on datasets from production and other fields. A trained XGBoost model is used as a surrogate for process simulation. Finally, multiple ways to improve the model are discussed.

Keywords: reinforcement learning, evolutionary algorithms, production process optimization, real-time optimization, hybrid-MPO

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Authors: Wen-Tsung Ho, Ku-Kuang Chang, Hsin-Yuan Chang

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In this study, we consider an economic lot-size batch-shipment scheduling problem (ELBSP) with extended basic period (EBP) and power-of-two (PoT) policies. In this problem, the supplier using a single facility to manufacture multiple products and equally sized batches are then delivered by the supplier to buyers over an infinite planning horizon. Further, the extended basic period (EBP) and power-of-two (PoT) policy are utilized. Relaxing the production schedule converts the ELBSP to an economic lot-size batch-shipment problem (ELBP) with EBP and PoT policies, and a nonlinear integer programming model of the ELBP is constructed. Using the replenishment cycle division and recursive tightening methods, optimal solutions are then solved separately for each product. The sum of these optimal solutions is the lower bound of the ELBSP. A proposed heuristic method with polynomial complexity is then applied to figure out the near-optimal solutions of the ELBSP. Numerical example is presented to confirm the efficacy of the proposed method.

Keywords: economic lot-size scheduling problem, extended basic period, replenishment cycle division, recursive tightening, power-of-two

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Authors: Hakan Akin

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to examine the policy making process in Turkish Health System. This policy making process will be examined through public policy change theories. Since political actors played in the formulation of public policies also explains the type of policy change, this actors will be inspected in the supranational and national basis. Also the transformation of public policy in the Turkish health care system will be analysed under the concepts of New right ideology, neo-liberalism, neo-conservatism and governance. And after this analyse, the outputs and outcomes of this transformation will be discussed in the context of developing countries.

Keywords: policy transfer, policy diffusion, policy convergence, new right, governance

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Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

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In this paper, we explore the extent to which states seek to promote regional foreign policy. More specifically, the analytical feasibility is to find out exactly what countries seek to export, and how they have used their relations and foreign policies to enhance cooperation with other countries. The first part discusses the development of regional interests and theoretical approaches that attempted to explain the push for regionalism in the field of foreign policy. The second part of the paper presents the motives and mechanisms through which states spread the idea of regionalism in making foreign policy. Finally, we assess the implications of regionalism for the nature and practice of foreign policy, particularly with regard to the gains or constraints to which various actors are exposed in their regional endeavors. We conclude with some considerations that indicate that strengthening regionalism has become an additional and real program in the field of foreign policy analysis.

Keywords: foreign policy, collective foreign policy, regionalization and foreign policy, regional foreign policy, foreign affairs

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Authors: Maryam Ghoreishi, Christian Larsen

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In this paper, we investigate the effect of stochastic inputs on problem of joint optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions where the inventory cycle is divided into advance and spot sales periods. During the advance sales period, customer can make reservations while customer with reservations can cancel their order. However, during the spot sales period customers receive the order as soon as the order is placed, but they cannot make any reservation or cancellation during that period. We assume that the inter arrival times during the advance sales and spot sales period are exponentially distributed where the arrival rate is decreasing function of price. Moreover, we assume that the number of cancelled reservations is binomially distributed. In addition, we assume that deterioration process follows an exponential distribution. We investigate two cases. First, we consider two-state case where we find the optimal price during the spot sales period and the optimal price during the advance sales period. Next, we develop a generalized case where we extend two-state case also to allow dynamic prices during the spot sales period. We apply the Markov decision theory in order to find the optimal solutions. In addition, for the generalized case, we apply the policy iteration algorithm in order to find the optimal prices, the optimal lot-size and maximum advance sales amount.

Keywords: inventory control, pricing, Markov decision theory, advance sales system

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Authors: Dina Maratovna Aikenova

Abstract:

Child care policy must be a priority area of public authorities in any country. This study investigates child care policy in Kazakhstan in accordance with the current position of children and laws. The results show that Kazakhstan policy in this sphere needs more systematic model including state economic and social measures, parental involvement and role of non-government organizations.

Keywords: children, Kazakhstan, policy, vulnerability

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