Search results for: Yasaman Azarmjoo

Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Yasaman Azarmjoo, Zahra Alikhani Koopaei

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This article introduces devices that can transfer sunlight to buildings that do not have access to direct sunlight during the day. The transmission and reflection of sunlight are done through the movement of movable mirrors. The focus of this article is on two models of sun tracker systems designed and built by the Macad team. In fact, this article will reveal the distinction between the two Macad devices and the previously built competitor device. What distinguishes the devices built by the Macad team from the competitor's device is the different mode of operation and the difference in the location of the sensors. Given that the devices have the same results, the Macad team has tried to reduce the defects of the competitor's device as much as possible. The special feature of the second type of device built by the Macad team has enabled buildings with different construction positions to use sun tracking systems. This article will also discuss diagrams of the path of sunlight transmission and more details of the device. It is worth mentioning that fixed mirrors are also placed next to the main devices. So that the light shining on the first device is reflected to these mirrors, this light is guided within the light receiver space and is transferred to the different parts around by steel sheets built in the light receiver space, and finally, these spaces benefit from sunlight.

Keywords: design, construction, mechatronic device, sun tracker system, sun tracker, sunlight

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Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Yasaman Azarmjoo, Zahra Alikhani Koopaei

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The increasing global population and continued growth in energy consumption underscore the need for renewable and sustainable energy sources more than ever. Soil batteries are a method for generating electrical energy by using recycled materials. Recycled materials include galvanized and copper sheets and recycled tires. Additionally, hydrogen, being a clean and efficient fuel, has the potential to replace fossil fuels. Consequently, hydrogen production from water presents a sustainable solution for energy supply. By utilizing aged materials, hydrogen production becomes more cost-effective and environmentally friendly. This article focuses on energy-deprived agricultural lands, explaining how soil batteries and hydrogen can provide the necessary energy for agricultural equipment, such as irrigation, lighting, greenhouse ventilation, and heating. The article explores the benefits of utilizing this method, emphasizing its potential to reduce environmental pollution through the use of recyclable materials. It is worth mentioning that these technologies face challenges, but their progress toward achieving zero-energy consumer standards positions them as promising future technologies for electricity generation. This article provides detailed insights into emerging technologies using a constructed case study involving soil batteries and a hydrogen fuel production device.

Keywords: electricity generation, soil batteries, tires, hydrogen, heat supply, water, aged materials, recycling, agricultural lands

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Authors: Yasaman Azarmjoo

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Since ancient times, it has been said that mathematics is the mother of all sciences and the foundation of basic concepts in every field and profession. It would be great if, after learning this subject, we could enable students to create games and activities based on the same mathematical concepts. This article explores the design of various mathematical activities in the form of games, utilizing different mathematical topics such as algebra, equations, binary systems, and one-to-one correspondence. The theoretical significance of this article lies in uncovering alternative approaches to teaching and learning mathematics. By employing creative and interactive methods such as game design, it challenges the traditional perception of mathematics as a difficult and laborious subject. The theoretical significance of this article lies in demonstrating that mathematics can be made more accessible and enjoyable, which can result in heightened interest and engagement in the subject. In general, this article reveals another aspect of mathematics.

Keywords: playing with mathematics, algebra and equations, binary systems, one-to-one correspondence

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Authors: Ebtesam Dessouki, Yasaman Mousavi

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Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk (2017) is not a conventional war film. He invites the audience to see the war from within, from the characters’ experiences, through suspense and fear, with the help of talented sound designers and musicians such as Hans Zimmer for an extra dimension creating those feelings. This experience of being among the surviving soldiers makes room for an interpretation of this film using the concept of the Self and the Other. The Self is the soldiers and the audience who try to make sense of their reality given limited information about the enemy and their situation, and the Other is the faceless enemy. However, this film can be taken under an even more detailed analysis theorizing that the Other also exists on different occasions in the film. Overall, Nolan leaves a lot of cues for the audience to track the Other and sometimes breaks the rules for the Other.

Keywords: film, Dunkirk, other, self

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Authors: Yasaman Tohidi, Rouzbeh Riazi, Shidvash Vakilipour, Masoud Mohammadi

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The objective of the present study is to numerically investigate the effect of CO₂ replacement of N₂ in air stream on the flame characteristics of the CH₄ turbulent diffusion flame. The Open source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) has been used as the computational tool. In this regard, laminar flamelet and modified k-ε models have been utilized as combustion and turbulence models, respectively. Results reveal that the presence of CO₂ in air stream changes the flame shape and maximum flame temperature. Also, CO₂ dilution causes an increment in CO mass fraction.

Keywords: CH4 diffusion flame, CO2 dilution, OpenFOAM, turbulent flame

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Authors: Yasaman Esfandiari

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Mechanical engineering has always dealt with amplification of the input power in power trains. One of the ways to achieve this goal is to use gears to change the amplitude and direction of the torque and the speed. However, the gears should be optimally designed to best achieve these objectives. In this study, helical gear systems are optimized to achieve maximum power. Material selection, space restriction, available facilities for manufacturing, the probability of tooth breakage, and tooth wear are taken into account and governing equations are derived. Finally, a Matlab code was generated to solve the optimization problem and the results are verified.

Keywords: design, gears, Matlab, optimization

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Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Navid Sharifi, Zahra Alikhani Koopaei

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This article aims to conserve energy and optimize the performance of solar water heaters using modern modeling systems. In this study, a large-scale solar water heater is modeled using an AVR microcontroller, which is a digital processor from the AVR microcontroller family. This mechatronic system will be used to analyze the performance and design of solar collectors, with the ultimate goal of improving the efficiency of the system being used. The findings of this research provide insights into optimizing the performance of solar water heaters. By manipulating the arrangement of solar panels and controlling the water flow through them using the AVR microcontroller, researchers can identify the optimal configurations and operational protocols to achieve the desired temperature and flow conditions. These findings can contribute to the development of more efficient and sustainable heating and cooling systems. This article investigates the optimization of solar water heater performance. It examines the impact of solar panel layout on system efficiency and explores methods of controlling water flow to achieve the desired temperature and flow conditions. The results of this research contribute to the development of more sustainable heating and cooling systems that rely on renewable energy sources.

Keywords: energy conservation, solar water heaters, solar cooling, simulation, mechatronics

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Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Mehdi Mehdizadeh Koupaei, Maryam Mehdizadeh Koupaei, Asghar Mahdlouei Azar

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The increasing prevalence of wireless networks in our daily lives has made them indispensable. The aim of this research is to investigate the management of information transfer in wireless networks and the integration of renewable solar energy resources in a residential building. The focus is on the transmission of electricity and information through wireless networks, as well as the utilization of sensors and wireless fire alarm systems. The research employs a descriptive approach to examine the transmission of electricity and information on a wireless network with electric and optical telephone lines. It also investigates the transmission of signals from sensors and wireless fire alarm systems via radio waves. The methodology includes a detailed analysis of security, comfort conditions, and costs related to the utilization of wireless networks and renewable solar energy resources. The study reveals that it is feasible to transmit electricity on a network cable using two pairs of network cables without the need for separate power cabling. Additionally, the integration of renewable solar energy systems in residential buildings can reduce dependence on traditional energy carriers. The use of sensors and wireless remote information processing can enhance the safety and efficiency of energy usage in buildings and the surrounding spaces.

Keywords: renewable energy, intelligentization, wireless sensors, fire alarm system

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Authors: Yasaman Zeinali, Farid Khosravikia

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This paper presents a multi-objective framework for sustainable urban development. The proposed framework aims to address different aspects of sustainability in urban development planning. These aspects include, but are not limited to education, health, job opportunities, architecture, culture, environment, mobility, energy, water, waste, and so on. Then, the proposed framework is applied to the Brackenridge Tract (an area in downtown Austin, Texas), to redevelop that area in a sustainable way. The detail of the implementation process is presented in this paper. The ultimate goal of this paper is to develop a sustainable area in downtown Austin with ensuring that it locally meets the needs of present and future generations with respect to economic, social, environmental, health as well as cultural aspects. Moreover, it helps the city with the population growth problem by accommodating more people in that area.

Keywords: urban planning, sustainability, sustainable urban development, environmental impacts of human activities

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Authors: Yasaman Tabari-Saadi, Kaiwen Sun, Jialiang Huang, Martin Green, Xiaojing Hao

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Optical and electrical properties of p-type AgBiS₂ absorber material have been improved by copper doping on silver sites. X-Ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis suggest that complete solid solutions of Ag₁₋ₓCuₓBiS₂ thin film have been formed. The carrier concentration of pure AgBiS₂ thin film deposited by the chemical process is 4.5*E+14 cm⁻³, and copper doping leads to the improved carrier concentration despite the semiconductor AgBiS₂ remains p-type semiconductor. Copper doping directly changed the absorption coefficient and increased the optical band gap (~1.5eV), which makes it a promising absorber for thin-film solar cell applications.

Keywords: copper doped, AgBiS₂, thin-film solar cell, carrier concentration, p-type semiconductor

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Authors: Yasaman Tohidi, Shidvash Vakilipour, Saeed Ebadi Tavallaee, Shahin Vakilipoor Takaloo, Hossein Amiri

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The numerical modeling is performed to study the effects of N₂ addition to the fuel stream on the flame structure and temperature distribution of methane-air swirl diffusion flames with different swirl intensities. The Open source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) has been utilized as the computational tool. Flamelet approach along with modified k-ε model is employed to model the flame characteristics.  The results indicate that the presence of N₂ in the fuel stream leads to the flame temperature reduction. By increasing of swirl intensity, the flame structure changes significantly. The flame has a conical shape in low swirl intensity; however, it has an hour glass-shape with a shorter length in high swirl intensity. The effects of N₂ dilution decrease the flame length in all swirl intensities; however, the rate of reduction is more noticeable in low swirl intensity.

Keywords: swirl diffusion flame, N2 dilution, OpenFOAM, swirl intensity

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Authors: Abdolrasoul Ghasemi, Ali Arabmazar Yazdi, Yasaman Boroumand, Aliasghar Banouei

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In regional studies, choosing an appropriate approach to analyze regional success or failure has always been a challenge. Hence, this study introduces an innovative approach to establish a link between regional success and failure in the past as well as the potential success of a region in the future. The former can be sought in the historical evaluation of comparative advantages, while the latter is portrayed as competitive advantage analysis with a forward-looking approach. Based on the interaction of comparative and competitive advantages, activities are classified into four groups, including activities with no advantage, hidden advantage, fragile advantage and synergistic advantage. In analyzing the comparative advantage of activities, the location quotient method is applied, and in analyzing their competitive advantage, Porter`s diamond model using the survey method is applied. According to the results, the share of no advantage, fragile advantage, hidden advantage and synergic advantage activities are respectively 10%, 42%, 16%, and 32%. Also, to achieve economic development in regional activities, our model provides various levels of priority. First, the activities with synergistic advantage should be prioritized, then the ones with hidden advantage, and finally the activities with fragile advantage.

Keywords: regional advantage, comparative advantage, competitive advantage, Porter's diamond model

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Authors: Yasaman Mohammadi

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Emotion regulation is a complex process that allows individuals to manage and modulate their emotional responses in order to adaptively respond to environmental demands. As individuals age, emotion regulation abilities may decline, leading to an increased vulnerability to mood disorders and other negative health outcomes. Advances in neuroimaging techniques have greatly enhanced our understanding of the neural substrates underlying emotion regulation and age-related changes in these neural systems. Additionally, genetic research has identified several candidate genes that may influence age-related changes in emotion regulation. In this paper, we review recent findings from neuroimaging and genetic research on age-related changes in the neural substrates of emotion regulation, highlighting the mechanisms and consequences of these changes. We also discuss potential interventions, including cognitive and behavioral approaches, that may be effective in mitigating age-related declines in emotion regulation. We propose that a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying age-related changes in emotion regulation may lead to the development of more targeted interventions aimed at promoting healthy emotional functioning in older adults. Overall, this paper highlights the importance of studying age-related changes in emotion regulation and provides a roadmap for future research in this field.

Keywords: emotion regulation, aging, neural substrates, neuroimaging, emotional functioning, healthy aging

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Authors: Yasaman Sanayei, Alireza Bahiraie

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This paper presents a systematic methodology based on the application of artificial neural networks for sequencing batch reactor (SBR). The SBR is a fill-and-draw biological wastewater technology, which is specially suited for nutrient removal. Employing reactive dye by Sphingomonas paucimobilis bacteria at sequence batch reactor is a novel approach of dye removal. The influent COD, MLVSS, and reaction time were selected as the process inputs and the effluent COD and BOD as the process outputs. The best possible result for the discrete pole parameter was a= 0.44. In orderto adjust the parameters of ANN, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm was employed. The results predicted by the model were compared to the experimental data and showed a high correlation with R2> 0.99 and a low mean absolute error (MAE). The results from this study reveal that the developed model is accurate and efficacious in predicting COD and BOD parameters of the dye-containing wastewater treated by SBR. The proposed modeling approach can be applied to other industrial wastewater treatment systems to predict effluent characteristics. Note that SBR are normally operated with constant predefined duration of the stages, thus, resulting in low efficient operation. Data obtained from the on-line electronic sensors installed in the SBR and from the control quality laboratory analysis have been used to develop the optimal architecture of two different ANN. The results have shown that the developed models can be used as efficient and cost-effective predictive tools for the system analysed.

Keywords: artificial neural network, COD removal, SBR, Sphingomonas paucimobilis

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Authors: Yasaman Mohammadi

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Executive functions are a critical component of goal-directed behavior, encompassing a diverse set of cognitive processes such as working memory, cognitive flexibility, and inhibitory control. These functions are known to decline with age, but the precise mechanisms underlying this decline remain unclear. This paper provides an in-depth review of recent research investigating age-related changes in executive functions, drawing on insights from neuroimaging, genetics, and cognitive neuroscience. Through an interdisciplinary approach, this paper offers a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between neural mechanisms, genetic factors, and cognitive processes that contribute to executive function decline in aging. Here, we investigate how different neuroimaging methods, like functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and positron emission tomography (PET), have helped scientists better understand the brain bases for age-related declines in executive function. Additionally, we discuss the role of genetic factors in mediating individual differences in executive functions across the lifespan, as well as the potential for cognitive interventions to mitigate age-related decline. Overall, this paper presents a comprehensive and integrative view of the current state of knowledge regarding age-related changes in executive functions. It underscores the need for continued interdisciplinary research to fully understand the complex and dynamic nature of executive function decline in aging, with the ultimate goal of developing effective interventions to promote healthy cognitive aging.

Keywords: executive functions, aging, neuroimaging, cognitive neuroscience, working memory, cognitive training

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Authors: Saeideh Soltanmohammadlou, Pilar M Guerrieri, Amir Kianfar, Sara Sadeghian, Yasaman Nafezi, Emily Irvin

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Architecture is rooted in the experiences of the residents in a place. Its foundations are based on needs and circumstances of each territory in terms of climate, available materials, economics and governmental policies, and cultural ideals and ideas of the people that live there. The architectural history of Iran echoes these architectural origins and has revealed certain trends reflecting this territory and culture. However, in recent years, new architectural patterns are developing that diverge from what has previously been considered classic forms of Iranian architecture. This article investigates architectural elements that make up the architecture created by religious minorities after the Safavid dynasty (one of the most significant ruling dynasties of Iran (from 1501 to 1736) in Iranian cities: Isfahan, Tabriz, Kerman, and Uremia. Similarities and differences are revealed between the architecture that composes neighborhoods of religious minorities in Iran and common national architectural trends in each era after this dynasty. This dynasty is specific as a point of reference in this article because Islam was identified as the state religion of Iran during this era. This decision changed the course of architecture in the country to incorporate religious motifs and meanings. The study associated with this article was conducted as a survey that sought to find links between architecture of religious minorities with Iranian national architecture. Interestingly, a merging of architectural forms and trends occur as immigrants interact with Iranian Islamic meanings. These observations are significant within the context of modern architecture around the world and within Western discourse because what are considered religious minorities in Iran are the dominant religions in Western nations. This makes Iran’s architecture particularly unique as it creates a kind of inverse relationship, than that of Western nations, to the ways in which religion influences architectural history.

Keywords: architecture, ethnic architecture, national architecture, religion architecture

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Authors: Yasaman Samie

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The ever-increasing rate of textile and clothing (T&C) waste generation and the common ineffective waste management practices have been for long a challenge for civic waste management. This challenge stems from not only the complexity in the T&C material components but also the heterogeneous nature of the T&C waste management sector and the disconnection between the stakeholders. To date, there is little research that investigates the importance of a governmental structure and its role in T&C waste managerial practices and decision makings. This paper reflects on the impacts and involvement of governments, the Acts, and legislation on the effectiveness of T&C waste management practices, which are carried out by multiple players in a city context. In doing so, this study first develops a methodical framework for holistically analyzing a city’s T&C waste ecosystem. Central to this framework are six dimensions: social, environmental, economic, political, cultural, and educational, as well as the connection between these dimensions such as Socio-Political and Cultural-Political. Second, it delves into the political dimension and its interconnections with varying aspects of T&C waste. In this manner, this case-study takes metropolitan Melbourne as a case and draws on social theories of Actor-Network Theory and the principals of supply chain design and planning. Data collection was through two rounds of semi-structured interviews with 18 key players of T&C waste ecosystem (including charities, city councils, private sector providers and producers) mainly within metropolitan Melbourne and also other Australian and European cities. Research findings expand on the role of the politics of waste in facilitating a proactive approach to T&C waste management in the cities. That is achieved through a revised definition for T&C waste and its characteristics, discussing the varying perceptions of value in waste, prioritizing waste types in civic waste management practices and how all these aspects shall be reflected in the in-placed acts and legislations.

Keywords: civic waste management, multi-stakeholder ecosystem, textile and clothing waste, waste and governments

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Authors: Yasaman Samani, Ali Golmohammadi

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Introduction: The degree of conversion and depth of cure affects the clinical success of resin composite restorations directly. One of the main challenges in achieving a successful composite restoration is the achievement of sufficient depth of cure. The insufficient polymerization may lead to a decrease in the physical/mechanical and biological properties of resin composites and, as a result of that, unsuccessful composite restoration. Thus, because of the importance of studying and evaluating the depth of cure and degree of conversion in bulk-fill composites, we decided to evaluate and compare the degree of conversion and depth of cure in two bulk-fill composites; x-tra fill (Voco, Germany) and Opus Bulk fill APS (FGM, Brazil). Materials and Methods: Composite resin specimens (n=10) per group were prepared as cylinder blocks (4×8 mm) with bulk-fill composites, x-tra fil (Voco, Germany) designated as Group A, and Opus Bulk fill APS (FGM, Brazil) designated as Group B. Depth of cure was determined according to “ISO 4049; Depth of Cure” method, In which each specimen were cured (iLED, Woodpecker, China) 40 seconds and FTIR spectroscopy method was used to estimate the degree of conversion of both the bulk-fill composites. The degree of conversion of monomer to polymer was estimated individually in the coronal half (Group A1 and B1) and pulpal half (Group A2 and Group B2) by dividing each specimen into two halves. The data were analyzed using a Student’s t-test and one-way ANOVA at a 5% level of significance. Results: The mean depth of cure in x-tra fil (Voco, Germany) was 3.99 (±0.16), and for Opus Bulk fill, APS (FGM, Brazil) was 2.14 (±0.3). The degree of conversion percentage in Group A1 was 82.7 (±6.1), in group A2 was 73.4 (±5.2), in group B1 was 63.3 (±4.7) and in Group B2 was 56.5 (±7.7). Statistical analysis revealed a significant difference in the depth of cure between the two bulk-fill composites with x-tra fil (Voco, Germany) higher than Opus Bulk fill APS (FGM, Brazil) (P<0.001). The degree of conversion percentage also showed a significant difference, Group A1 being higher than A2 (P=0.0085), B1, and B2 (P<0.001). Group A2 was also higher than B1 (P=0.003) and B2 (P<0.001). There was no significant difference between B1 and B2 (P=0.072). Conclusion: The results indicate that x-tra fill has more depth of cure and a higher percentage of the degree of conversion than Opus Bulk fill APS. The coronal half of x-tra fil had the highest depth of cure percentage (82.66%), and the pulpal half of Opus Bulk fill APS had the lowest percentage (56.45%). Even though both bulk-fill composite materials had an acceptable degree of conversion (55% and higher), x-tra fill has shown better results.

Keywords: depth of cure, degree of conversion, bulk-fill composite, FTIR

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Authors: Nasrin Amirrajab, Yasaman Razavi Ghahfarokhi, Zahra Tootak, Maryam Hadian, Fatemeh Abooali Shamshiri

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Urinary tract infections (UTIs) have been reported in children with nephrotic syndrome. However, the only causes for the infection reported to date are bacteria, but not many prior reported occurrences of fungi or yeast as causative organisms. Hence, the present study aimed to describe the epidemiology of urinary tract fungal infections in a tertiary care pediatric. A single-center cross-sectional study was conducted at the nephrology ward of Aboozar Pediatric Hospital between March 21, 2021, and April 28, 2022. Urine was collected aseptically from children, inoculated onto culture media, and incubated at 37 °C for 18–48 hours. Yeast was identified following standard procedures. Antifungal susceptibility testing was determined by the disk diffusion method according to the CLSI guideline. Descriptive statistics and logistical regressions were used to estimate the crude ratio with a 95% confidence interval. P-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Among 68 individuals referred to the mycology lab, the result of direct examination and culture of all patients approved for C.albicans. Of these, 38 individuals (55.8%) were male, and 30 (44.2%) were female. The patients' age ranges were between one month and an 18-year-old. In the study of infection intensity, the patients were classified into three levels such as few (73.5%), moderate (20.6%), and many (5.9%). In the present study, all the patients were sensitive to Posaconazole. Also, the eagle effect was found in Amphotericin B, Voriconazole, and Fluconazole with frequencies of 91.7%, 91.7%, and 83%, respectively. In addition, just 8.3% of isolates were resistant to Itraconazole. It has not shown resistance in other mentioned medicine. The patients showed an intermediate response to Itraconazole (91.7%), Fluconazole (17%), Voriconazole (8.3%), and Amphotericin B (8.3%). There is a high prevalence of yeast infections in children with suspected UTIs. Also, boys are more likely to get yeast infections, and the severity of the infection is higher than girls. The present study demonstrated the importance of diagnosing and selecting the appropriate drug for urinary tract fungal infections in hospitalized children.

Keywords: urinary tract infections, children, fungal infections, yeast, antifungal susceptibility

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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