Search results for: John Carlo Combista

Authors: Z. Jamalzadeh, A. Niaei, H. Erfannia

Abstract:

Due to developing industries, the emission of pollutants such as NOx, SOx, and CO2 are rapidly increased. Generally, NOx is attributed to the mono nitrogen oxides of NO and NO2 that is one of the most important atmospheric contaminants. Hence, controlling the emission of nitrogen oxides is environmentally urgent. Selective catalytic reduction of NOx is one of the most common techniques for NOx removal in which zeolites have wide application due to their high performance. In zeolitic processes, the catalytic reaction occurs mostly in the pores. Therefore, investigation of the adsorption phenomena of the molecules in order to gain an insight and understand the catalytic cycle is of important. Hence, in current study, benefiting from molecular simulations, the adsorption phenomena in the nanocatalysts of SCR of NOx process was investigated in order to get a good insight of the catalysts’ behavior. The effect of cation addition to the support in the catalysts’ behavior through adsorption step was explored by Mont Carlo (MC) using Materials Studio Package. Simulation time of 1 Ns accompanying 1 fs time step, COMPASS27 Force Field and the cut off radios of 12.5 Ȧ was applied for performed runs. It was observed that the adsorption capacity increases in the presence of cations. The sorption isotherms demonstrated the behavior of type I isotherm categories and sorption capacity diminished with increase in temperature whereas an increase was observed at high pressures. Besides, NO sorption showed higher sorption capacity than NH3 in H–ZSM5. In this respect, the energy distributions signified that the molecules could adsorb in just one sorption site at the catalyst and the sorption energy of NO was stronger than the NH3 in H-ZSM5. Furthermore, the isosteric heat of sorption data showed nearly same values for the molecules; however, it indicated stronger interactions of NO molecules with H-ZSM5 zeolite compared to the isosteric heat of NH3 which was low in value.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, adsorption, NOx, ZSM5

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Balasundaram Prasaant, Ploix Stephane, Delinchant Benoit, Muresan Cristian

Abstract:

Hardware in Loop (HIL) testing is done to test and validate a particular product especially in building technology. When it comes to building technology, it is more important to test the products for their efficiency. The test rig in the HIL simulator may contribute to some uncertainties on measured efficiency. The uncertainties include physical uncertainties and scenario-based uncertainties. In this paper, a simple uncertainty analysis framework for an HIL setup is shown considering only the physical uncertainties. The entire modeling of the HIL setup is done in Dymola. The uncertain sources are considered based on available knowledge of the components and also on expert knowledge. For the propagation of uncertainty, Monte Carlo Simulation is used since it is the most reliable and easy to use. In this article it is shown how an HIL setup can be modeled and how uncertainty propagation can be performed on it. Such an approach is not common in building energy analysis.

Keywords: energy in buildings, hardware in loop testing, modelica modelling, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: L. Q. Yuan, J. Yang, A. Siddiqui

Abstract:

A new regression uncertainty analysis methodology was applied to determine the uncertainties of the critical heat flux (CHF) power correlation for an advanced 43-element bundle design, which was developed by Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to achieve improved economics, resource utilization and energy sustainability. The new methodology is considered more appropriate than the traditional methodology in the assessment of the experimental uncertainty associated with regressions. The methodology was first assessed using both the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) and the Taylor Series Method (TSM) for a simple linear regression model, and then extended successfully to a non-linear CHF power regression model (CHF power as a function of inlet temperature, outlet pressure and mass flow rate). The regression uncertainty assessed by MCM agrees well with that by TSM. An equation to evaluate the CHF power regression uncertainty was developed and expressed as a function of independent variables that determine the CHF power.

Keywords: CHF experiment, CHF correlation, regression uncertainty, Monte Carlo Method, Taylor Series Method

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Ding Jue, Li Jiahua, Lei Zhidi, Weng Peifen, Li Xiaowei

Abstract:

With the rapid development of national modern industry, people begin to pay attention to environmental pollution and harm caused by industrial dust. Based on above, a numerical study on the dedusting technology of industrial environment was conducted. The dynamic models of multicomponent particles collision and coagulation, breakage and deposition are developed, and the interaction of water droplet and aerosol particle in 2-Dimension flow field was researched by Eulerian-Lagrangian method and Multi-Monte Carlo method. The effects of the droplet scale, movement speed of droplet and the flow field structure on scavenging efficiency were analyzed. The results show that under the certain condition, 30μm of droplet has the best scavenging efficiency. At the initial speed 1m/s of droplets, droplets and aerosol particles have more time to interact, so it has a better scavenging efficiency for the particle.

Keywords: water droplet, aerosol particle, collision and coagulation, multi-monte carlo method

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Sid Ahmed Ziane

Abstract:

This paper argues for Johnson's financial responsiveness to the rise of Black Power and its advocate, 'Stokely Carmichael' in 1966. John H. Johnson was a Black businessman and the owner of Ebony magazine, one of the widely read Black magazines in the U.S. His magazine, however, was designed only to promoting Black fashion, aesthetic, marketing, and consumerism. In mid-1966, the mainstream of the Civil Rights movement was heading into two distinct camps when some of its advocates, led by Stokely Carmichael, began to question the slow pace of the Civil Rights and sought to pursue a more radical approach to bring about upheaval to the Black community. Their new approach, however, propelled the national media into paying close attention to their activities, their new methods, and their radical orientations. In fact, the major White-oriented media discredited Carmichael and distorted his public image via sensational stories and race-mongering reports. However, the Black owned outlets such as The Liberator advocated his agendas, whereas other magazines such as The Crisis rejected them. Based on such oral sources and Ebony’s online issues, this paper adds and argues that Johnson had also responded to the rise of Black Power and Carmichael. This reaction had, in fact, aimed at scooping and selling Carmichael and his new orientation as well as advertising him in his magazine to attract the readers who showed a strong tendency to hear and read about the heyday and even the ferment of Black Power. This paper is part of an ongoing project which aims at framing our understanding of how the Black print media and the modern Black liberation struggle were correlated and could shape each other by appraising their agendas, milestones, and their pivotal figures.

Keywords: Black power, Ebony magazine, John Johson, Stokely Carmichael

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: WooYoung Jung, Buntheng Chhorn, Min-Gi Kim

Abstract:

Recently, damage to domestic facilities by strong winds and typhoons are growing. Therefore, this study focused on sign structure among various vulnerable facilities. The evaluation of the wind fragility was carried out considering the destruction of the anchor, which is one of the various failure modes of the sign structure. The performance evaluation of the anchor was carried out to derive the wind fragility. Two parameters were set and four anchor types were selected to perform the pull-out and shear tests. The resistance capacity was estimated based on the experimental results. Wind loads were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation method. Based on these results, we derived the wind fragility according to anchor type and wind exposure category. Finally, the evaluation of the wind fragility was performed according to the experimental parameters such as anchor length and anchor diameter. This study shows that the depth of anchor was more significant for the safety of structure compare to diameter of anchor.

Keywords: sign structure, wind fragility, set anchor, pull-out test, shear test, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

Abstract:

Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: reliability approach, storage tanks, monte carlo simulation, seismic acceleration

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Mojtaba Barzegar, Alireza Shirazi, Saied Rabi Mahdavi

Abstract:

Intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) is an innovative treatment modality that the delivery of a large single dose of radiation to the tumor bed during the surgery. The radiotherapy success depends on the absorbed dose delivered to the tumor. The achievement better accuracy in patient treatment depends upon the measured dose by standard dosimeter such as ionization chamber, but because of the high density of electric charge/pulse produced by the accelerator in the ionization chamber volume, the standard correction factor for ion recombination Ksat calculated with the classic two-voltage method is overestimated so the use of dose/pulse independent dosimeters such as chemical Fricke and ethanol chlorobenzene (ECB) dosimeters have been suggested. Dose measurement is usually calculated and calibrated in the Zmax. Ksat calculated by comparison of ion chamber response and ECB dosimeter at each applicator degree, size, and dose. The relative output factors for IORT applicators have been calculated and compared with experimentally determined values and the results simulated by Monte Carlo software. The absorbed doses have been calculated and measured with statistical uncertainties less than 0.7% and 2.5% consecutively. The relative differences between calculated and measured OF’s were up to 2.5%, for major OF’s the agreement was better. In these conditions, together with the relative absorbed dose calculations, the OF’s could be considered as an indication that the IORT electron beams have been well simulated. These investigations demonstrate the utility of the full Monte Carlo simulation of accelerator head with ECB dosimeter allow us to obtain detailed information of clinical IORT beams.

Keywords: intra operative radiotherapy, ethanol chlorobenzene, ksat, output factor, monte carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Sidi Mohamed Mesli, Mohamed Habchi, Arslane Boudghene Stambouli, Rafik Benallal

Abstract:

The BaMnMF7 (M=Fe,V, transition metal fluoride glass, assuming isomorphous replacement) have been structurally studied through the simultaneous simulation of their neutron diffraction patterns by reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) and by the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC) analysis. This last is applied to remedy the problem of the artificial satellite peaks that appear in the partial pair distribution functions (PDFs) by the RMC simulation. The HRMC simulation is an extension of the RMC algorithm, which introduces an energy penalty term (potential) in acceptance criteria. The idea of this work is to apply the Buckingham potential at the title glass by ignoring the van der Waals terms, in order to make a fit of the partial pair distribution functions and give the most possible realistic features. When displaying the partial PDFs, we suggest that the Buckingham potential is useful to describe average correlations especially in similar interactions.

Keywords: fluoride glasses, RMC simulation, hybrid RMC simulation, Buckingham potential, partial pair distribution functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: H. Mousavi, M. Sharifi, H. Pourvaziri

Abstract:

Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) is a well-known mathematical problem for modeling series-parallel systems. It is a combinatorial optimization problem which focuses on determining an optimal assignment of components in a system design. In this paper, to be more practical, we have considered the problem of redundancy allocation of series system with interval valued reliability of components. Therefore, during the search process, the reliabilities of the components are considered as a stochastic variable with a lower and upper bounds. In order to optimize the problem, we proposed a simulated annealing based on cloud theory (CBSAA). Also, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is embedded to the CBSAA to handle the random variable components’ reliability. This novel approach has been investigated by numerical examples and the experimental results have shown that the CBSAA combining MCS is an efficient tool to solve the RAP of systems with interval-valued component reliabilities.

Keywords: redundancy allocation problem, simulated annealing, cloud theory, monte carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Seyed Ali Mahdipour, Maryam Shafeei Sarvestani

Abstract:

Radiation pressure acceleration (RPA) and target normal sheath acceleration (TNSA) are the most important methods of Laser-accelerated proton beams (LAP) planning systems.LAP has inspired novel applications that can benefit from proton bunch properties different from conventionally accelerated proton beams. The secondary neutron and photon produced in the collision of protons with beamline components are of the important concern in proton therapy. Various published Monte Carlo researches evaluated the beamline and shielding considerations for TNSA method, but there is no studies directly address secondary neutron and photon production from RPA method in LAP. The purpose of this study is to calculate the flux distribution of neutron and photon secondary radiations on the first area ofLAP and to determine the optimize thickness and radius of the energyselector in a LAP planning system based on RPA method. Also, we present the Monte Carlo calculations to determine the appropriate beam pipe for shielding a LAP planning system. The GEANT4 Monte Carlo toolkit has been used to simulate a secondary radiation production in LAP. A section of new multifunctional LAP beamlinehas been proposed, based on the pulsed power solenoid scheme as a GEANT4 toolkit. The results show that the energy selector is the most important source of neutron and photon secondary particles in LAP beamline. According to the calculations, the pure Tungsten energy selector not be the proper case, and using of Tungsten+Polyethylene or Tungsten+Graphitecomposite selectors will reduce the production of neutron and photon intensities by approximately ~10% and ~25%, respectively. Also the optimal radiuses of energy selectors were found to be ~4 cm and ~6 cm for a 3 degree and 5 degree proton deviation angles, respectively.

Keywords: neutron, photon, flux distribution, energy selector, GEANT4 toolkit

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou

Abstract:

Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.

Keywords: beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Suparman Suparman

Abstract:

A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Mohanad Al-Behadili, Djamila Ouelhadj

Abstract:

In this paper, a specific type of vehicle routing problem under stochastic demand (SVRP) is considered. This problem is of great importance because it models for many of the real world vehicle routing applications. This paper used a robust optimisation model to solve the problem along with the novel Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation (Sim-PSO) approach. The proposed Sim-PSO approach is based on the hybridization of the Monte Carlo simulation technique with the PSO algorithm. A comparative study between the proposed model and the Sim-PSO approach against other solution methods in the literature has been given in this paper. This comparison including the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to show the ability of the model and solution method in solving the complicated SVRP. The experimental results show that the proposed model and Sim-PSO approach has a significant impact on the obtained solution by providing better quality solutions comparing with well-known algorithms in the literature.

Keywords: stochastic vehicle routing problem, robust optimisation model, Monte Carlo simulation, particle swarm optimisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Elmamy Ahmedsalem

Abstract:

The world has witnessed the collapse of many corporate giants as a result of unethical behavior in recent decades. This has induced a series of questions by the global community on why such occurrences could happen, even with corporate governance in place. This paper attempts to propose a philosophical approach from an Islamic perspective to be consolidated with current corporate governance in order to confront contemporary dilemmas. In this paper, ethical theories are presented as a discussion followed by their applications to modern cases of financial collapses. Virtue ethics by Aristotle, justice and fairness by John Rawls, deontology by Immanuel Kant, and utilitarianism by John Stuart Mill, are the four theories which can then be contrasted with the paradigm of Muslim scholars. Despite the differences between the fundamental principles of Islamic and Western worldviews, their ethical theories are aimed at making right decisions and solving ethical dilemmas based on what is good for society. Therefore, Islamic principles should be synthesized with Western philosophy to form a more coherent framework. The integration of Islamic and western ethical theories into business is important for sound corporate governance.

Keywords: business ethics, Islamic philosophy, western philosophy, Western and Islamic worldview of ethics

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: Li Minghui, Min Shaorong, Zhang Jun

Abstract:

This paper aims for studying the operational efficiency of surface warship’s motorized evasion to acoustic homing torpedo. It orderly developed trajectory model, self-guide detection model, vessel evasion model, as well as anti-torpedo error model in three-dimensional space to make up for the deficiency of precious researches analyzing two-dimensionally confrontational models. Then, making use of the Monte Carlo method, it carried out the simulation for the confrontation process of evasion in the environment of MATLAB. At last, it quantitatively analyzed the main factors which determine vessel’s survival probability. The results show that evasion relative bearing and speed will affect vessel’s survival probability significantly. Thus, choosing appropriate evasion relative bearing and speed according to alarming range and alarming relative bearing for torpedo, improving alarming range and positioning accuracy and reducing the response time against torpedo will improve the vessel’s survival probability significantly.

Keywords: acoustic homing torpedo, vessel evasion, monte carlo method, torpedo defense, vessel's survival probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: S. Zhang, L. Zhang, X. Chen

Abstract:

Due to the large uncertainty on the mechanical properties of FRP (fibre reinforced plastic), the reliability evaluation of FRP structures are currently receiving much attention in industry. However, possible statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties has been so far overlooked, and they are mostly assumed to be independent random variables. In this study, the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties of uni-directional and plain weave composite is firstly analyzed by a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and finite element modeling of the FRP unit cell. Large linear correlation coefficients between the in-plane mechanical properties are observed, and the correlation coefficients are heavily dependent on the uncertainty of the fibre volume ratio. It is also observed that the correlation coefficients related to Poisson’s ratio are negative while others are positive. To experimentally achieve the statistical correlation coefficients between in-plane mechanical properties of FRP, all concerned in-plane mechanical properties of the same specimen needs to be known. In-plane shear modulus of FRP is experimentally derived by the approach suggested in the ASTM standard D5379M. Tensile tests are conducted using the same specimens used for the shear test, and due to non-uniform tensile deformation a modification factor is derived by a finite element modeling. Digital image correlation is adopted to characterize the specimen non-uniform deformation. The preliminary experimental results show a good agreement with the numerical analysis on the statistical correlation. Then, failure probability of laminate plates is calculated in cases considering and not considering the statistical correlation, using the Monte-Carlo and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties to achieve accurate failure probability of laminate plates. Furthermore, it is found that for the multi-layer laminate plate, the statistical correlation between the ply elastic properties significantly affects the laminate reliability while the effect of statistical correlation between the ply strength is minimal.

Keywords: failure probability, FRP, reliability, statistical correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Ormal Lishi

Abstract:

This research presents a computationally efficient probabilistic method to assess the performance of compartmentation walls with similar Fire Resistance Levels (FRL) but varying complexity. Specifically, a masonry brick wall and a light-steel framed (LSF) wall with comparable insulation performance are analyzed. A Monte Carlo technique, employing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is utilized to quantify uncertainties and determine the probability of failure for both walls exposed to standard and parametric fires, following ISO 834 and Eurocodes guidelines. Results show that the probability of failure for the brick masonry wall under standard fire exposure is estimated at 4.8%, while the LSF wall is 7.6%. These probabilities decrease to 0.4% and 4.8%, respectively, when subjected to parametric fires. Notably, the complex LSF wall exhibits higher variability in predicting time to failure for specific criteria compared to the less complex brick wall, especially at higher temperatures. The proposed approach highlights the need for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to accurately evaluate the reliability and safety levels of complex designs.

Keywords: design complexity, probability of failure, monte carlo analysis, compartmentation walls, insulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Badreddine Chemali, Boualem Tiliouine

Abstract:

This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Marta Błażkiewicz, Adam Konefał

Abstract:

Currently, boron-neutron therapy is carried out mainly with the use of a neutron beam generated in research nuclear reactors. This fact limits the possibility of realization of a BNCT in centers distant from the above-mentioned reactors. Moreover, the number of active nuclear reactors in operation in the world is decreasing due to the limited lifetime of their operation and the lack of new installations. Therefore, the possibilities of carrying out boron-neutron therapy based on the neutron beam from the experimental reactor are shrinking. However, the use of nuclear power reactors for BNCT purposes is impossible due to the infrastructure not intended for radiotherapy. Therefore, a serious challenge is to find ways to perform boron-neutron therapy based on neutrons generated outside the research nuclear reactor. This work meets this challenge. Its goal is to develop a BNCT technique based on commonly available neutron sources such as Cf-252 and PuBe, which will enable the above-mentioned therapy in medical centers unrelated to nuclear research reactors. Advances in the field of neutron source fabrication make it possible to achieve strong neutron fluxes. The current stage of research focuses on the development of virtual models of the above-mentioned sources using the Monte Carlo simulation method. In this study, the GEANT4 tool was used, including the model for simulating neutron-matter interactions - High Precision Neutron. Models of neutron sources were developed on the basis of experimental verification based on the activation detectors method with the use of indium foil and the cadmium differentiation method allowing to separate the indium activation contribution from thermal and resonance neutrons. Due to the large number of factors affecting the result of the verification experiment, the 10% discrepancy between the simulation and experiment results was accepted.

Keywords: BNCT, virtual models, neutron sources, monte carlo, GEANT4, neutron activation detectors, gamma spectroscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

Abstract:

Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Elizabeth Laguaite, Alexandria Purdy

Abstract:

Heart transplant recipients face psycho-physiological stressors, including pain, lengthy hospitalizations, delirium, and existential crises. They pose an increased risk for Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and can be a predictor of poorer mental and physical Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) outcomes and increased mortality. There is limited research on the prevention of Post Traumatic Stress Symptoms (PTSS) in transplant patients. This case report focuses on a collaborative Music and Art Therapy intervention used to improve outcomes for HMH transplant recipient John (Alias). John, a 58-year-old man with congestive heart failure, was admitted to HMH in February of 2021 with cardiogenic shock, cannulated with an Intra-aortic Balloon Pump, Impella 5.5, and Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (VA-ECMO) as a bridge to heart and kidney transplant. He was listed as status 1 for transplant. Music Therapy and Art Therapy (MT and AT) were ordered by the physician for mood regulation, trauma processing and anxiety management. During MT/AT sessions, John reported a history of anxiety and depression exacerbated by medical acuity, shortness of breath, and lengthy hospitalizations. He expressed difficulty sleeping, pain, and existential questions. Initially seen individually by MT/AT, it was determined he could benefit from a collaborative approach due to similar thematic content within sessions. A Life Review intervention was developed by MT/AT. The purpose was for him to creatively express, reflect and process his medical narrative, including the identification of positive and negative events leading up to admission at HMH, the journey to transplant, and his hope for the future. Through this intervention, he created artworks that symbolized each event and paired them with songs, two of which were composed with the MT during treatment. As of September 2023, John has not been readmitted to the hospital and expressed that this treatment is what “got him through transplant”. MT and AT can provide opportunities for a patient to reminisce through creative expression, leading to a shift in the personal meaning of these experiences, promoting resolution, and ameliorating associated trauma. The closer to trauma it is processed, the less likely to develop PTSD. This collaborative MT/AT approach could improve long-term outcomes by reducing mortality and readmission rates for transplant patients.

Keywords: art therapy, music therapy, critical care, PTSD, trauma, transplant

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: J. C. Riaño-Rojas, J. D. Alzate-Cardona, E. Restrepo-Parra

Abstract:

In this work, a study of generic magnetic nanoparticles varying the metric space is presented. As the metric space is changed, the nanoparticle form and the inner product are also varied, since the energetic scale is not conserved. This study is carried out using Monte Carlo simulations combined with the Wolff embedding and Metropolis algorithms. The Metropolis algorithm is used at high temperature regions to reach the equilibrium quickly. The Wolff embedding algorithm is used at low and critical temperature regions in order to reduce the critical slowing down phenomenon. The ions number is kept constant for the different forms and the critical temperatures using finite size scaling are found. We observed that critical temperatures don't exhibit significant changes when the metric space was varied. Additionally, the effective dimension according the metric space was determined. A study of static behavior for reaching the static critical exponents was developed. The objective of this work is to observe the behavior of the thermodynamic quantities as energy, magnetization, specific heat, susceptibility and Binder's cumulants at the critical region, in order to demonstrate if the magnetic nanoparticles describe their magnetic interactions in the Euclidean space or if there is any correspondence in other metric spaces.

Keywords: nanoparticles, metric, Monte Carlo, critical behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: Hatem Mrad, Mohamed Bouazara, Fouad Erchiqui

Abstract:

Fatigue, is considered as one of the main cause of mechanical properties degradation of mechanical parts. Probability and reliability methods are appropriate for fatigue analysis using uncertainties that exist in fatigue material or process parameters. Current work deals with the study of the effect of the number and counting Rainflow cycle on fatigue lifetime (cumulative damage) of an upper arm of the vehicle suspension system. The major part of the fatigue damage induced in suspension arm is caused by two main classes of parameters. The first is related to the materials properties and the second is the road excitation or the applied force of the passenger’s number. Therefore, Young's modulus and road excitation are selected as input parameters to conduct repetitive simulations by Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. Latin hypercube sampling method is used to generate these parameters. Response surface method is established according to fatigue lifetime of each combination of input parameters according to strain-life method. A PYTHON script was developed to automatize finite element simulations of the upper arm according to a design of experiments.

Keywords: fatigue, monte carlo, rainflow cycle, response surface, suspension system

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

Abstract:

The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Mohamed K. Metwally, Sherif H. El-Gohary, Kyung Min Byun, Seung Moo Han, Soo Yeol Lee, Min Hyoung Cho, Gon Khang, Jinsung Cho, Tae-Seong Kim

Abstract:

Photoacoustic imaging (PAI) is a non-invasive and non-ionizing imaging modality that combines the absorption contrast of light with ultrasound resolution. Laser is used to deposit optical energy into a target (i.e., optical fluence). Consequently, the target temperature rises, and then thermal expansion occurs that leads to generating a PA signal. In general, most image reconstruction algorithms for PAI assume uniform fluence within an imaging object. However, it is known that optical fluence distribution within the object is non-uniform. This could affect the reconstruction of PA images. In this study, we have investigated the influence of optical fluence distribution on PA back-propagation imaging using finite element method. The uniform fluence was simulated as a triangular waveform within the object of interest. The non-uniform fluence distribution was estimated by solving light propagation within a tissue model via Monte Carlo method. The results show that the PA signal in the case of non-uniform fluence is wider than the uniform case by 23%. The frequency spectrum of the PA signal due to the non-uniform fluence has missed some high frequency components in comparison to the uniform case. Consequently, the reconstructed image with the non-uniform fluence exhibits a strong smoothing effect.

Keywords: finite element method, fluence distribution, Monte Carlo method, photoacoustic imaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

Abstract:

This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self-excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operating as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machine operating as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 534

Authors: I. Badhrees

Abstract:

This paper is an attempt to describe some of the results that had been found through a journey of study in the field of particle physics. This study consists of two parts, one about the measurement of the cross section of the decay of the Z particle in two electrons, and the other deals with the measurement of the cross section of the multi-photon absorption process using a beam of laser in the Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber. The first part of the paper concerns the results based on the analysis of a data sample containing 8120 ee candidates to reconstruct the mass of the Z particle for each event where each event has an ee pair with PT(e) > 20GeV, and η(e) < 2.5. Monte Carlo templates of the reconstructed Z particle were produced as a function of the Z mass scale. The distribution of the reconstructed Z mass in the data was compared to the Monte Carlo templates, where the total cross section is calculated to be equal to 1432 pb. The second part concerns the Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber, LAr TPC, the results of the interaction of the UV Laser, Nd-YAG with λ= 266mm, with LAr and through the study of the multi-photon ionization process as a part of the R&D at Bern University. The main result of this study was the cross section of the process of the multi-photon ionization process of the LAr, σe = 1.24±0.10stat±0.30sys.10 -56cm4.

Keywords: ATLAS, CERN, KACST, LArTPC, particle physics

Procedia PDF Downloads 318