Search results for: Granger causality

Authors: Hisham Arab Alkabeya, A. M. Hughes, J. Adams

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Background: People with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) continue to experience problems with hand function despite new drug advances and targeted medical treatment. Consequently, it is important to identify the factors that influence the impact of RA disease on hand function. This systematic review identified observational studies that reported factors that influenced the impact of RA on hand function. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAL, AMED, PsychINFO, and Web of Science database were searched from January 1990 up to March 2017. Full-text articles published in English that described factors related to hand functional disability in people with RA were selected following predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Pertinent data were thoroughly extracted and documented using a pre-designed data extraction form by the lead author, and cross-checked by the review team for completion and accuracy. Factors related to hand function were classified under the domains of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) framework and health-related factors. Three reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality of the included articles using the quality of cross-sectional studies (AXIS) tool. Factors related to hand function that was investigated in two or more studies were explored using a best-evidence synthesis. Results: Twenty articles form 19 studies met the inclusion criteria from 1,271 citations; all presented cross-sectional data (five high quality and 15 low quality studies), resulting in at best limited evidence in the best-evidence synthesis. For the factors classified under the ICF domains, the best-evidence synthesis indicates that there was a range of body structure and function factors that were related with hand functional disability. However, key factors were hand strength, disease activity, and pain intensity. Low functional status (physical, emotional and social) level was found to be related with limited hand function. For personal factors, there is limited evidence that gender is not related with hand function; whereas, conflicting evidence was found regarding the relationship between age and hand function. In the domain of environmental factors, there was limited evidence that work activity was not related with hand function. Regarding health-related factors, there was limited evidence that the level of the rheumatoid factor (RF) was not related to hand function. Finally, conflicting evidence was found regarding the relationship between hand function and disease duration and general health status. Conclusion: Studies focused on body structure and function factors, highlighting a lack of investigation into personal and environmental factors when considering the impact of RA on hand function. The level of evidence which exists was limited, but identified that modifiable factors such as grip or pinch strength, disease activity and pain are the most influential factors on hand function in people with RA. The review findings suggest that important personal and environmental factors that impact on hand function in people with RA are not yet considered or reported in clinical research. Well-designed longitudinal, preferably cohort, studies are now needed to better understand the causality between personal and environmental factors and hand functional disability in people with RA.

Keywords: factors, hand function, rheumatoid arthritis, systematic review

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Authors: Kamelia Hamza

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Background: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most prescribed drug classes for pediatric gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD).Many patients are treated with these drugs for atypical manifestations attributed to gastroesophageal reflux (GER), even in the absence of proved causal relationship. There is an impression of increase use of PPI's treatment for reflux in "clalit health services," the largest health organization in Israel. In the recent years, the medicine is given without restriction, it's not limited to pediatric gastroenterologists only, but pediatricians and family doctors. The objective of this study is to evaluate the hypothesis that exposure to PPIs during the first year of life is associated with an increased risk of developing late adverse diseases: pneumonia, asthma, AGE, IBD, celiac disease, allergic disorders, obesity, attention deficit hyperactivity disorders (ADHD), autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Methods: The study is a retrospective case-control cohort study based on a computerized database of Clalit Health Services (CHS). It includes 9844 children born between 2002-2018 and reported to complain of at least one of the symptoms (reflux/ spitting up, irritability, feeding difficulties, colics). The study population included the study group (n=4922) of children exposed to PPIs at any time prior to the first year of life and a control group (n=4922) child not exposed to PPIs who were matched to each case of the study group on age, race, socioeconomic status, and year of birth. The prevalence of late complications/diseases in the study group was compared with the prevalence of late complications/diseases diagnosis between 2002-2020 in the control group. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by using logistic regression models. Results: We found that compared to the control group, children exposed to PPIs in the first year of life had an increased risk of developing several late complications/ disorders: pneumonia, asthma, various allergies (urticaria, allergic rhinitis, or allergic conjunctivitis) OR, inhalant allergies, and food allergies. In addition, they showed an increased risk of being diagnosed with ADHD or ASD, but children exposed to PPIs in the first year of life had decrease the risk of obesity by 17% (OR 0.825, 95%CI 0.697-0.976). Conclusions: We found significant associations between the use of PPIs during the first year of life and subsequent development of late complications/diseases such as respiratory diseases, allergy diseases, ADHD, and ASD. More studies are needed to prove causality and determine the mechanism behind the effect of PPIs and the development of late complications.

Keywords: acid suppressing medications, proton pump inhibitors, histamine 2 blocker, late complications, gastroesophageal reflux, gastroesophageal reflux disease, acute gastroenteritis, community acquired pneumonia, asthma, allergic diseases, obesity, inflammatory bowel diseases, ulcerative colitis, crohn disease, attention deficit hyperactivity disorders, autism spectrum disorders

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Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises

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Authors: Fatima Boutaleb

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Entrepreneurship proves to be crucial for the economic growth and development, since it contributes to job creation and the improvement of the overall productivity thus generating a positive impact upon society at various levels. Promoting entrepreneurship stimulates therefore economic diversity that is key to the betterment and/or maintaining of the standard of living. In fact, recent research suggests that entrepreneurship contributes to development by creating businesses and jobs, stimulating innovation, creating social capital across borders, and channeling political and financial capital. However, different research studies indicate that among the main factors impeding the entrepreneurship are politico-economic as socio-cultural problems, with an intensity for those related to young people and to women. In the MENA region, discrimination inherent in gender is alarming: Only one woman in eight runs her own business against 1 in 3 men. In most countries, young women and young men are facing problems involving access to finance, inadequate infrastructure, lack of support and, in general, an ecosystem that is rather unfavorable. According to the International Labor Organization, North Africa and the Middle East has the highest unemployment rate in all other regions of the world. In other hand, nearly a quarter of the population under 30 is unemployed and youth unemployment costs more than $40 billion each year to the region. In the current context, the situations in the Middle East and North Africa region are singular, both in terms of demographic trends and socio-economic issues around the employment of a large and better trained youth, but still strongly affected by unemployment and under-employment. According to a study published in 2015 by McKinsey, the world gain 26% of additional GDP (47% in the MENA region), more than 28 trillion dollars by 2025, if women came to participate, as well as men, to the economy. Promoting entrepreneurship represents an excellent alternative for the countries whose productive fabric fails to integrate the contingent of young people entering the job market each year. The MENA region, presenting entrepreneurial activity rates below those of other regions in terms of comparable development, has undoubtedly leeway at this level, even though the region displays large national heterogeneity, namely in the priority given to the promotion of entrepreneurship. The objective of this article is therefore to examine the women entrepreneurial vocation in the MENA region, to see to what extent research on the determinant of gender can provide information on the trend of the emerging entrepreneurial activity whether driven by necessity or by opportunity and, on this basis, to submit public policy proposals for the improvement of the mechanisms of inclusion among the youth women people. The objective is not to analyze the causality models but rather to identify the entrepreneurial construct specific to the MENA region via the analysis of GEM data from 2017 to 2019 among adults belonging to 10 countries of the MENA region. Notably, the study shows that inclusion of young women may be enhanced. These disadvantaged segments frequently intend to become entrepreneurs, but they tend not to enact their vocational intentions.

Keywords: economic development, entrepreneurial activity, GEM, gender, informal sector

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Authors: Alexander David Natanson

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This paper focuses on the effect of Sanctuary and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies on local economies. "Sanctuary cities" refers to municipal jurisdictions that limit their cooperation with the federal government's efforts to enforce immigration. Using county-level data from the American Community Survey and ICE data on economic indicators from 2006 to 2018, this study isolates the effects of local immigration policies on U.S. counties. The investigation is accomplished by simultaneously studying the policies' effects in counties where immigrants' families are persecuted via collaboration with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in contrast to counties that provide protections. The analysis includes a difference-in-difference & two-way fixed effect model. Results are robust to nearest-neighbor matching, after the random assignment of treatment, after running estimations using different cutoffs for immigration policies, and with a regression discontinuity model comparing bordering counties with opposite policies. Results are also robust after restricting the data to a single-year policy adoption, using the Sun and Abraham estimator, and with event-study estimation to deal with the staggered treatment issue. In addition, the study reverses the estimation to understand what drives the decision to choose policies to detect the presence of reverse causality biases in the estimated policy impact on economic factors. The evidence demonstrates that providing protections to undocumented immigrants increases economic activity. The estimates show gains in per capita income ranging from 3.1 to 7.2, median wages between 1.7 to 2.6, and GDP between 2.4 to 4.1 percent. Regarding labor, sanctuary counties saw increases in total employment between 2.3 to 4 percent, and the unemployment rate declined from 12 to 17 percent. The data further shows that ICE policies have no statistically significant effects on income, median wages, or GDP but adverse effects on total employment, with declines from 1 to 2 percent, mostly in rural counties, and an increase in unemployment of around 7 percent in urban counties. In addition, results show a decline in the foreign-born population in ICE counties but no changes in sanctuary counties. The study also finds similar results for sanctuary counties when separating the data between urban, rural, educational attainment, gender, ethnic groups, economic quintiles, and the number of business establishments. The takeaway from this study is that institutional inclusion creates the dynamic nature of an economy, as inclusion allows for economic expansion due to the extension of fundamental freedoms to newcomers. Inclusive policies show positive effects on economic outcomes with no evident increase in population. To make sense of these results, the hypothesis and theoretical model propose that inclusive immigration policies play an essential role in conditioning the effect of immigration by decreasing uncertainties and constraints for immigrants' interaction in their communities, decreasing the cost from fear of deportation or the constant fear of criminalization and optimize their human capital.

Keywords: inclusive and exclusive institutions, post matching, fixed effect, time trend, regression discontinuity, difference-in-difference, randomization inference and sun, Abraham estimator

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Authors: Peter Falanga

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During the process of de-Stalinization that began in 1956 with the Twentieth Congress of the Soviet Communist Party, many filmmakers in Hungary chose to explore their country’s political discomforts by using Socialist Realism as a negative model against which they could react to the dominating ideology. A renewed national film industry and a more permissive political regime would allow filmmakers to take to task the plight of the preceding generation who had experienced the fatal political turmoil of both World Wars and the purges of Stalin. What follows is no longer the multigenerational unity found in Socialist Realism wherein both the old and the young embrace Stalin’s revolutionary optimism; instead, the protagonists are parentless, and thus their connection to the previous generation is partially severed. In these films, violent historical forces leave one generation to search for both a connection with their family’s past, and for moral guidance to direct their future. István Szabó’s Father (1966), Márta Mészáros Diary for My Children (1984), and Pál Gábor’s Angi Vera (1978) each consider the fraught relationship between successive generations through the lens of postwar youth. A characteristic each of their protagonist’s share is that they are all missing one or both parents, and cope with familial loss either through recalling memories of their parents in dream-like sequences, or, in the case of Angi Vera, through embracing the surrogate paternalism that the Communist Party promises to provide. This paper considers the argument these films present about the progress of Hungarian history, and how this topic is explored in more recent films that similarly focus on the transmission of generational values. Scholars such as László Strausz and John Cunningham have written on the continuous concern with the transmission of generational values in more recent films such as István Szabó’s Sunshine (1999), Béla Tarr’s Werckmeister Harmonies (2000), György Pálfi’s Taxidermia (2006), Ágnes Kocsis’ Pál Adrienn (2010), and Kornél Mundruczó’s Evolution (2021). These films, they argue, make intimate portrayals of the various sweeping political changes in Hungary’s history and question how these epochs or events have impacted Hungarian identities. If these films attempt to personalize historical shifts of Hungary, then what is the significance of featuring characters who have lost one or both parents? An attempt to understand this coherent trend in Hungarian cinema will profit from examining the earlier, celebrated films of Szabó, Mészáros, and Gábor, who inaugurated this preoccupation with generational values. The pervasive interplay of dreams and memory in their films invites an additional element to their argument concerning historical progression. This paper incorporates Richard Teniman’s notion of the “dialectics of memory” in which memory is in a constant process of negation and reinvention to explain why these Directors prefer to explore Hungarian identity through the disarranged form of psychological realism over the linear causality structure of historical realism.

Keywords: film theory, Eastern European Studies, film history, Eastern European History

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Authors: Aliasghar Mehdizadeh Dastjerdi, Francisco Camara Pereira

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The increasing complexity and demand of transport services strains transportation systems especially in urban areas with limited possibilities for building new infrastructure. The solution to this challenge requires changes of travel behavior. One of the proposed means to induce such change is multimodal travel apps. This paper describes a study of the intention to use a real-time multi-modal travel app aimed at motivating travel behavior change in the Greater Copenhagen Region (Denmark) toward promoting sustainable transport options. The proposed app is a multi-faceted smartphone app including both travel information and persuasive strategies such as health and environmental feedback, tailoring travel options, self-monitoring, tunneling users toward green behavior, social networking, nudging and gamification elements. The prospective for mobility management travel apps to stimulate sustainable mobility rests not only on the original and proper employment of the behavior change strategies, but also on explicitly anchoring it on established theoretical constructs from behavioral theories. The theoretical foundation is important because it positively and significantly influences the effectiveness of the system. However, there is a gap in current knowledge regarding the study of mobility-management travel app with support in behavioral theories, which should be explored further. This study addresses this gap by a social cognitive theory‐based examination. However, compare to conventional method in technology adoption research, this study adopts a reverse approach in which the associations between theoretical constructs are explored by Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC) algorithm as a hybrid causal discovery method. A technology-use preference survey was designed to collect data. The survey elicited different groups of variables including (1) three groups of user’s motives for using the app including gain motives (e.g., saving travel time and cost), hedonic motives (e.g., enjoyment) and normative motives (e.g., less travel-related CO2 production), (2) technology-related self-concepts (i.e. technophile attitude) and (3) use Intention of the travel app. The questionnaire items led to the formulation of causal relationships discovery to learn the causal structure of the data. Causal relationships discovery from observational data is a critical challenge and it has applications in different research fields. The estimated causal structure shows that the two constructs of gain motives and technophilia have a causal effect on adoption intention. Likewise, there is a causal relationship from technophilia to both gain and hedonic motives. In line with the findings of the prior studies, it highlights the importance of functional value of the travel app as well as technology self-concept as two important variables for adoption intention. Furthermore, the results indicate the effect of technophile attitude on developing gain and hedonic motives. The causal structure shows hierarchical associations between the three groups of user’s motive. They can be explained by “frustration-regression” principle according to Alderfer's ERG (Existence, Relatedness and Growth) theory of needs meaning that a higher level need remains unfulfilled, a person may regress to lower level needs that appear easier to satisfy. To conclude, this study shows the capability of causal discovery methods to learn the causal structure of theoretical model, and accordingly interpret established associations.

Keywords: travel app, behavior change, persuasive technology, travel information, causality

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Authors: Salam N. Abdo, Orien L. Tulp, George P. Einstein

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The purpose of this exploratory study was to gather the insights into psoriasis etiology, treatment, and patient experience, for developing psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis diagnostic test. Data collection methods consisted of a comprehensive meta-analysis of relevant studies and psoriasis patient survey. Established meta-analysis guidelines were used for the selection and qualitative comparative analysis of psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis research studies. Only studies that clearly discussed psoriasis etiology, treatment, and patient experience were reviewed and analyzed, to establish a qualitative data base for the study. Using the insights gained from meta-analysis, an existing psoriasis patient survey was modified and administered to collect additional data as well as triangulate the results. The hypothesis is that specific types of psoriatic disease have specific etiology and pathophysiologic pattern. The following etiology categories were identified: bacterial, environmental/microbial, genetic, immune, infectious, trauma/stress, and viral. Additional results, obtained from meta-analysis and confirmed by patient survey, were the common age of onset (early to mid-20s) and type of psoriasis (plaque; mild; symmetrical; scalp, chest, and extremities, specifically elbows and knees). Almost 70% of patients reported no prescription drug use due to severe side effects and prohibitive cost. These results will guide the development of psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis diagnostic test. The significant number of medical publications classified psoriatic arthritis disease as inflammatory of an unknown etiology. Thus numerous meta-analyses struggle to report any meaningful conclusions since no definitive results have been reported to date. Therefore, return to the basics is an essential step to any future meaningful results. To date, medical literature supports the fact that psoriatic disease in its current classification could be misidentifying subcategories, which in turn hinders the success of studies conducted to date. Moreover, there has been an enormous commercial support to pursue various immune-modulation therapies, thus following a narrow hypothesis/mechanism of action that is yet to yield resolution of disease state. Recurrence and complications may be considered unacceptable in a significant number of these studies. The aim of the ongoing study is to focus on a narrow subgroup of patient population, as identified by this exploratory study via meta-analysis and patient survey, and conduct an exhaustive work up, aiming at mechanism of action and causality before proposing a cure or therapeutic modality. Remission in psoriasis has been achieved and documented in medical literature, such as immune-modulation, phototherapy, various over-the-counter agents, including salts and tar. However, there is no psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis diagnostic test to date, to guide the diagnosis and treatment of this debilitating and, thus far, incurable disease. Because psoriasis affects approximately 2% of population, the results of this study may affect the treatment and improve the quality of life of a significant number of psoriasis patients, potentially millions of patients in the United States alone and many more millions worldwide.

Keywords: biologics, early diagnosis, etiology, immune disease, immune modulation therapy, inflammation skin disorder, phototherapy, plaque psoriasis, psoriasis, psoriasis classification, psoriasis disease marker, psoriasis diagnostic test, psoriasis marker, psoriasis mechanism of action, psoriasis treatment, psoriatic arthritis, psoriatic disease, psoriatic disease marker, psoriatic patient experience, psoriatic patient quality of life, remission, salt therapy, targeted immune therapy

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Authors: Lolwa Alansari, Abdelhamid Azhaghdani, Sufia Athar, Hanen Mrabet, Annaliza Cruz, Tamara Alshadafat, Almunzer Zakaria

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Introduction: Improving the patient experience is a fundamental pillar of healthcare's quadruple aims. Recognizing the importance of patient experiences and perceptions in healthcare interactions is pivotal for driving quality improvement. This abstract centers around the Patient Experience Program, an endeavor crafted with the purpose of comprehending and elevating the experiences of patients in the Obstetrics & Gynecology Emergency Department (OB/GYN ED). Methodology: This comprehensive endeavor unfolded through a structured sequence of phases following Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) model, spanning over 12 months, focused on enhancing patient experiences in the Obstetrics & Gynecology Emergency Department (OB/GYN ED). The study meticulously examined the journeys of patients with acute obstetrics and gynecological conditions, collecting data from over 100 participants monthly. The inclusive approach covered patients of different priority levels (1-5) admitted for acute conditions, with no exclusions. Historical data from March and April 2022 serves as a benchmark for comparison, strengthening causality claims by providing a baseline understanding of OB/GYN ED performance before interventions. Additionally, the methodology includes the incorporation of staff engagement surveys to comprehensively understand the experiences of healthcare professionals with the implemented improvements. Data extraction involved administering open-ended questions and comment sections to gather rich qualitative insights. The survey covered various aspects of the patient journey, including communication, emotional support, timely access to care, care coordination, and patient-centered decision-making. The project's data analysis utilized a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative techniques to identify recurring themes and extract actionable insights and quantitative methods to assess patient satisfaction scores and relevant metrics over time, facilitating the measurement of intervention impact and longitudinal tracking of changes. From the themes we discovered in both the online and in-person patient experience surveys, several key findings emerged that guided us in initiating improvements, including effective communication and information sharing, providing emotional support and empathy, ensuring timely access to care, fostering care coordination and continuity, and promoting patient-centered decision-making. Results: The project yielded substantial positive outcomes, significantly improving patient experiences in the OB/GYN ED. Patient satisfaction levels rose from 62% to a consistent 98%, with notable improvements in satisfaction with care plan information and physician care. Waiting time satisfaction increased from 68% to a steady 97%. The project positively impacted nurses' and midwives' job satisfaction, increasing from 64% to an impressive 94%. Operational metrics displayed positive trends, including a decrease in the "left without being seen" rate from 3% to 1%, the discharge against medical advice rate dropping from 8% to 1%, and the absconded rate reducing from 3% to 0%. These outcomes underscore the project's effectiveness in enhancing both patient and staff experiences in the healthcare setting. Conclusion: The use of a patient experience questionnaire has been substantiated by evidence-based research as an effective tool for improving the patient experience, guiding interventions, and enhancing overall healthcare quality in the OB/GYN ED. The project's interventions have resulted in a more efficient allocation of resources, reduced hospital stays, and minimized unnecessary resource utilization. This, in turn, contributes to cost savings for the healthcare facility.

Keywords: patient experience, patient survey, person centered care, quality initiatives

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