Search results for: bayesian estimation‎

Authors: Evangelos G. Karvelas, Christos Liosis, Andreas Theodorakakos, Theodoros E. Karakasidis

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In the present work, a numerical method for the estimation of the appropriate gradient magnetic fields for optimum driving of the particles into the desired area inside the human body is presented. The proposed method combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Discrete Element Method (DEM) and Covariance Matrix Adaptation (CMA) evolution strategy for the magnetic navigation of nanoparticles. It is based on an iteration procedure that intents to eliminate the deviation of the nanoparticles from a desired path. Hence, the gradient magnetic field is constantly adjusted in a suitable way so that the particles’ follow as close as possible to a desired trajectory. Using the proposed method, it is obvious that the diameter of particles is crucial parameter for an efficient navigation. In addition, increase of particles' diameter decreases their deviation from the desired path. Moreover, the navigation method can navigate nanoparticles into the desired areas with efficiency approximately 99%.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, CFD, covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy, discrete element method, DEM, magnetic navigation, spherical particles

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Authors: Zhengkun Guo, Yanbin Li, Wenqing Wang, Bo Zou

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The statically fused converted position and doppler measurements Kalman filter (SF-CMKF) with additive debiased measurement conversion has been previously presented to combine the resulting states of converted position measurements Kalman filter (CPMKF) and converted doppler measurement Kalman filter (CDMKF) to yield the final state estimates under minimum mean squared error (MMSE) criterion. However, the exact compensation for the bias in the polar-to-cartesian and spherical-to-cartesian conversion are multiplicative and depend on the statistics of the cosine of the angle measurement errors. As a result, the consistency and performance of the SF-CMKF may be suboptimal in large-angle error situations. In this paper, the multiplicative unbiased position and Doppler measurement conversion for 2D (polar-to-cartesian) tracking are derived, and the SF-CMKF is improved to use those conversions. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to demonstrate the statistical consistency of the multiplicative unbiased conversion and the superior performance of the modified SF-CMKF (SF-UCMKF).

Keywords: measurement conversion, Doppler, Kalman filter, estimation, tracking

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Authors: Reda Abdel Azim, Tariq Shehab

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The main objective of this study is to develop a subsurface fracture map of naturally fractured reservoirs by overcoming the limitations associated with different data sources in characterising fracture properties. Some of these limitations are overcome by employing a nested neuro-stochastic technique to establish inter-relationship between different data, as conventional well logs, borehole images (FMI), core description, seismic attributes, and etc. and then characterise fracture properties in terms of fracture density and fractal dimension for each data source. Fracture density is an important property of a system of fracture network as it is a measure of the cumulative area of all the fractures in a unit volume of a fracture network system and Fractal dimension is also used to characterize self-similar objects such as fractures. At the wellbore locations, fracture density and fractal dimension can only be estimated for limited sections where FMI data are available. Therefore, artificial intelligence technique is applied to approximate the quantities at locations along the wellbore, where the hard data is not available. It should be noted that Artificial intelligence techniques have proven their effectiveness in this domain of applications.

Keywords: naturally fractured reservoirs, artificial intelligence, fracture intensity, fractal dimension

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Authors: Enver Kucukkulahli, Pakize Erdogmus, Kemal Polat

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The 2D image segmentation is a significant process in finding a suitable region in medical images such as MRI, PET, CT etc. In this study, we have focused on 2D MRI images for image segmentation process. We have designed a GUI (graphical user interface) written in MATLABTM for 2D MRI images. In this program, there are two different interfaces including data pre-processing and image clustering or segmentation. In the data pre-processing section, there are median filter, average filter, unsharp mask filter, Wiener filter, and custom filter (a filter that is designed by user in MATLAB). As for the image clustering, there are seven different image segmentations for 2D MR images. These image segmentation algorithms are as follows: PSO (particle swarm optimization), GA (genetic algorithm), Lloyds algorithm, k-means, the combination of Lloyds and k-means, mean shift clustering, and finally BBO (Biogeography Based Optimization). To find the suitable cluster number in 2D MRI, we have designed the histogram based cluster estimation method and then applied to these numbers to image segmentation algorithms to cluster an image automatically. Also, we have selected the best hybrid method for each 2D MR images thanks to this GUI software.

Keywords: image segmentation, clustering, GUI, 2D MRI

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Authors: Usriatur Rohma, Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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Nonparametric path analysis is a statistical method that does not rely on the assumption that the curve is known. The purpose of this study is to determine the best nonparametric truncated spline path function between linear and quadratic polynomial degrees with 1, 2, and 3-knot points and to determine the significance of estimating the best nonparametric truncated spline path function in the model of the effect of population migration and agricultural economic growth on rural poverty through the variable unemployment rate using the t-test statistic at the jackknife resampling stage. The data used in this study are secondary data obtained from statistical publications. The results showed that the best model of nonparametric truncated spline path analysis is quadratic polynomial degree with 3-knot points. In addition, the significance of the best-truncated spline nonparametric path function estimation using jackknife resampling shows that all exogenous variables have a significant influence on the endogenous variables.

Keywords: nonparametric path analysis, truncated spline, linear, quadratic, rural poverty, jackknife resampling

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Authors: Samson Henry Dogo, Allan Clark, Elena Kulinskaya

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The objective in meta-analysis is to combine results from several independent studies in order to create generalization and provide evidence based for decision making. But recent studies show that the magnitude of effect size estimates reported in many areas of research finding changed with year publication and this can impair the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. A number of sequential methods have been proposed for monitoring the effect size estimates in meta-analysis. However they are based on statistical theory applicable to fixed effect model (FEM). For random-effects model (REM), the analysis incorporates the heterogeneity variance, tau-squared and its estimation create complications. In this paper proposed the use of Gombay and Serbian (2005) truncated CUSUM-type test with asymptotically valid critical values for sequential monitoring of REM. Simulation results show that the test does not control the Type I error well, and is not recommended. Further work required to derive an appropriate test in this important area of application.

Keywords: meta-analysis, random-effects model, sequential test, temporal changes in effect sizes

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Authors: Khaled Benyounes

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Determination of the rock mechanical properties such as unconfined compressive strength UCS, Young’s modulus E, and tensile strength by the Brazilian test Rtb is considered to be the most important component in drilling and mining engineering project. Research related to establishing correlation between strength and physical parameters of rocks has always been of interest to mining and reservoir engineering. For this, many rock blocks of limestone were collected from the quarry located in Meftah(Algeria), the cores were crafted in the laboratory using a core drill. This work examines the relationships between mechanical properties and some physical properties of limestone. Many empirical equations are established between UCS and physical properties of limestone (such as dry bulk density, velocity of P-waves, dynamic Young’s modulus, alteration index, and total porosity). Others correlations UCS-tensile strength, dynamic Young’s modulus-static Young’s modulus have been find. Based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, we were able to establish mathematical relationships that will allow estimating the cohesion and internal friction angle from UCS and indirect tensile strength. Results from this study can be useful for mining industry for resolve range of geomechanical problems such as slope stability.

Keywords: limestone, mechanical strength, Young’s modulus, porosity

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Authors: C. Temaneh-Nyah

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Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is the ability of a Radio Communication Equipment (RCE) to operate with a desired quality of service in a given Electromagnetic Environment (EME) and not to create harmful interference with other RCE. This paper presents an algorithm which improves the simulation speed of estimating EMC of RCE in a complex EME, based on a stage by stage frequency-energy criterion of filtering. This algorithm considers different interference types including: Blocking and intermodulation. It consist of the following steps: simplified energy criterion where filtration is based on comparing the free space interference level to the industrial noise, frequency criterion which checks whether the interfering emissions characteristic overlap with the receiver’s channels characteristic and lastly the detailed energy criterion where the real channel interference level is compared to the noise level. In each of these stages, some interference cases are filtered out by the relevant criteria. This reduces the total number of dual and different combinations of RCE involved in the tedious detailed energy analysis and thus provides an improved simulation speed.

Keywords: electromagnetic compatibility, electromagnetic environment, simulation of communication network

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Authors: Takashi Kaburagi, Takamasa Komura, Yosuke Kurihara

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Absolute pitch is the ability to identify a musical note without a reference tone. Training for absolute pitch often occurs in preschool education. It is necessary to clarify how well the trainee can make use of synesthesia in order to evaluate the effect of the training. To the best of our knowledge, there are no existing methods for objectively confirming whether the subject is using synesthesia. Therefore, in this study, we present a method to distinguish the use of color-auditory synesthesia from the separate use of color and audition during absolute pitch training. This method measures blood volume in the prefrontal cortex using functional Near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) and assumes that the cognitive step has two parts, a non-linear step and a linear step. For the linear step, we assume a second order ordinary differential equation. For the non-linear part, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to create an inverse filter of such a complex system as the brain. Therefore, we apply a method based on a self-organizing map (SOM) and are guided by the available data. The presented method was tested using 15 subjects, and the estimation accuracy is reported.

Keywords: absolute pitch, functional near-infrared spectroscopy, prefrontal cortex, synesthesia

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Authors: Marzieh Ebrahimi, Vahid Changizi, Mohammad Reza Kardan, Seyed Mahdi Hosseini Pooya, Parham Geramifar

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Radiation exposure to the patient's family members is one of the major concerns during thyroid cancer radionuclide therapy. The aim of this study was to measure the total effective dose of the family members by means of thermoluminescence personal dosimeter, and compare with those calculated by analytical methods. Eighty-five adult family members of fifty-one patients volunteered to participate in this research study. Considering the minimum and maximum range of dose rate from 15 µsv/h to 120 µsv/h at patients' release time, the calculated mean and median dose values of family members were 0.45 mSv and 0.28 mSv, respectively. Moreover, almost all family members’ doses were measured to be less than the dose constraint of 5 mSv recommended by Basic Safety Standards. Considering the influence parameters such as patient dose rate and administrated activity, the total effective doses of family members were calculated by TEDE and NRC formulas and compared with those of experimental results. The results indicated that, it is fruitful to use the quantitative calculations for releasing patients treated with I-131 and correct estimation of patients' family doses.

Keywords: effective dose, thermoluminescence, I-131, thyroid cancer

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

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Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

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Authors: Tienfuan Kerh, Hsienchang Lu, Rob Saunders

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Shoreline erosion problems caused by global warming and sea level rising may result in losing of land areas, so it should be examined regularly to reduce possible negative impacts. Initially in this study, three sets of survey images obtained from the years of 1990, 2001, and 2010, respectively, are digitalized by using graphical software to establish the spatial coordinates of six major beaches around the island of Taiwan. Then, by overlaying the known multi-period images, the change of shoreline can be observed from their distribution of coordinates. In addition, the neural network approximation is used to develop a model for predicting shoreline variation in the years of 2015 and 2020. The comparison results show that there is no significant change of total sandy area for all beaches in the three different periods. However, the prediction results show that two beaches may exhibit an increasing of total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method adopted in this study may be applicable to other shorelines of interest around the world.

Keywords: digitalized shoreline coordinates, survey image overlaying, neural network approximation, total beach sandy areas

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Authors: Gamal F.Attia

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The baselines are the distances and lengths of the chords between projections of the positions of the laser stations on the reference ellipsoid. For the satellite geodesy, it is very important to determine the optimal length of orbital arc along which laser measurements are to be carried out. It is clear that for the dynamical methods long arcs (one month or more) are to be used. According to which more errors of modeling of different physical forces such as earth's gravitational field, air drag, solar radiation pressure, and others that may influence the accuracy of the estimation of the satellites position, at the same time the measured errors con be almost completely excluded and high stability in determination of relative coordinate system can be achieved. It is possible to diminish the influence of the errors of modeling by using short-arcs of the satellite orbit (several revolutions or days), but the station's coordinates estimated by different arcs con differ from each other by a larger quantity than statistical zero. Under the semidynamical ‘short arc’ method one or several passes of the satellite in one of simultaneous visibility from both ends of the chord is known and the estimated parameter in this case is the length of the chord. The comparison of the same baselines calculated with long and short arcs methods shows a good agreement and even speaks in favor of the last one. In this paper the Short Arc technique has been explained and 3 baselines have been determined using the ‘short arc’ method.

Keywords: baselines, short arc, dynamical, gravitational field

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Authors: Fekadu L. Bayisa, Elvan Ceyhan, Todd D. Steury

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Interaction between individuals within the same species is an important component of population dynamics. An interaction can be either static (based on spatial overlap) or dynamic (based on movement interactions). Using GPS collar data, we can quantify both static and dynamic interactions between black bears. The goal of this work is to determine the level of black bear interactions using the 95% and 50% home ranges, as well as to model black bear spatial interactions, which could be attraction, avoidance/repulsion, or a lack of interaction at all, to gain new insights and improve our understanding of ecological processes. Recent methodological developments in home range estimation, inhomogeneous multitype/cross-type summary statistics, and envelope testing methods are explored to study the nature of black bear interactions. Our findings, in general, indicate that the black bears of one type in our data set tend to cluster around another type.

Keywords: autocorrelated kernel density estimator, cross-type summary function, inhomogeneous multitype Poisson process, kernel density estimator, minimum convex polygon, pointwise and global envelope tests

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Authors: Yuri V. Kim

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This article presents a new approach to the Functional Testing of Space Systems (SS). It can be considered as a generic test and used for a wide class of SS that from the point of view of System Dynamics and Control may be described by the ordinary differential equations. Suggested methodology is based on using semi-natural experiment- laboratory stand that doesn’t require complicated, precise and expensive technological control-verification equipment. However, it allows for testing system as a whole totally assembled unit during Assembling, Integration and Testing (AIT) activities, involving system hardware (HW) and software (SW). The test physically activates system input (sensors) and output (actuators) and requires recording their outputs in real time. The data is then inserted in laboratory PC where it is post-experiment processed by Matlab/Simulink Identification Toolbox. It allows for estimating system dynamics in form of estimation of system differential equations by the experimental way and comparing them with expected mathematical model prematurely verified by mathematical simulation during the design process.

Keywords: system dynamics, space system ground tests and space qualification, system dynamics identification, satellite attitude control, assembling, integration and testing

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Authors: Seyed Hamid Mirmohammad Sadeghi, Raffaella Sesana, Daniela Maffiodo

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This study presents a procedure for friction calculation of column electric power steering (C-EPS) system which affects handling and comfort in driving. The friction losses estimation is obtained from experimental tests and mathematical calculation. Parts in C-EPS mainly involved in friction losses are bearings and worm gear. In the theoretical approach, the gear geometry and Hertz law were employed to measure the normal load and the sliding velocity and contact areas from the worm gears driving conditions. The viscous friction generated in the worm gear was obtained with a theoretical approach and the result was applied to model the friction in the steering system. Finally, by viscous friction coefficient and Coulomb friction coefficient, values of friction in worm gear were calculated. According to the Bearing Company and the characteristics of each bearing, the friction torques due to load and due to speed were calculated. A MATLAB Simulink model for calculating the friction in bearings and worm gear in C-EPS were done and the total friction value was estimated.

Keywords: friction, worm gear, column electric power steering system, simulink, bearing, EPS

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Authors: Rajesh Singh, Kailash Kale

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In this paper, the Binomial process type occurrence of software failures is considered and failure intensity has been characterized by one parameter Rayleigh class Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM). The proposed SRGM is mathematical function of parameters namely; total number of failures i.e. η-0 and scale parameter i.e. η-1. It is assumed that very little or no information is available about both these parameters and then considering non-informative priors for both these parameters, the Bayes estimators for the parameters η-0 and η-1 have been obtained under square error loss function. The proposed Bayes estimators are compared with their corresponding maximum likelihood estimators on the basis of risk efficiencies obtained by Monte Carlo simulation technique. It is concluded that both the proposed Bayes estimators of total number of failures and scale parameter perform well for proper choice of execution time.

Keywords: binomial process, non-informative prior, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), rayleigh class, software reliability growth model (SRGM)

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Authors: Chao Yu, Qing-Guo Wang, Dan Zhang

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The outlier detection problem for dynamic systems is formulated as a matrix decomposition problem with low-rank, sparse matrices and further recast as a semidefinite programming (SDP) problem. A fast algorithm is presented to solve the resulting problem while keeping the solution matrix structure and it can greatly reduce the computational cost over the standard interior-point method. The computational burden is further reduced by proper construction of subsets of the raw data without violating low rank property of the involved matrix. The proposed method can make exact detection of outliers in case of no or little noise in output observations. In case of significant noise, a novel approach based on under-sampling with averaging is developed to denoise while retaining the saliency of outliers and so-filtered data enables successful outlier detection with the proposed method while the existing filtering methods fail. Use of recovered “clean” data from the proposed method can give much better parameter estimation compared with that based on the raw data.

Keywords: outlier detection, system identification, matrix decomposition, low-rank matrix, sparsity, semidefinite programming, interior-point methods, denoising

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Authors: Muhammad Umer Zubair, Kamran Akhtar, Muhammad Arsalan Khan

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This paper is based on a research carried out on a failed slope in Defence Housing Authority (DHA) Phase I, Islamabad. The research included determination of Soil parameters, Site Surveying and Cost Estimation. Apart from these, the use of three dimensional (3D) slope stability analysis in conjunction with two dimensional (2D) analysis was used determination of slope conditions. In addition collection of soil reports, a detailed survey was carried out to create a 3D model in Surfer 8 software. 2D cross-sections that needed to be analyzed for stability were generated from 3D model. Slope stability softwares, Rocscience Slide 6.0 and Clara-W were employed for 2D and 3D Analyses respectively which have the ability to solve complex mathematical functions. Results of the analyses were used to confirm site conditions and the threats were identified to recommend suitable remedies.The most effective remedy was suggested for slope stability after analyzing all remedies in software Slide 6 and its feasibility was determined through cost benefit analysis. This paper should be helpful to Geotechnical engineers, design engineers and the organizations working with slope stability.

Keywords: slope stability, Rocscience, Clara W., 2d analysis, 3D analysis, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Joshua van Staden, Dane Brown, Karen Bradshaw

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Gun violence is a significant problem in modern-day society. Early detection of carried handguns through closed-circuit television (CCTV) can aid in preventing potential gun violence. However, CCTV operators have a limited attention span. Machine learning approaches to automating the detection of dangerous gun carriers provide a way to aid CCTV operators in identifying these individuals. This study provides insight into the relationship between human key points extracted using human pose estimation (HPE) and their intention to fire a weapon. We examine the feature importance of each keypoint and their correlations. We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the feature space and optimize detection. Finally, we run a set of classifiers to determine what form of classifier performs well on this data. We find that hips, shoulders, and knees tend to be crucial aspects of the human pose when making these predictions. Furthermore, the horizontal position plays a larger role than the vertical position. Of the 66 key points, nine principal components could be used to make nonlinear classifications with 86% accuracy. Furthermore, linear classifications could be done with 85% accuracy, showing that there is a degree of linearity in the data.

Keywords: feature engineering, human pose, machine learning, security

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Authors: S. Sonkham, U. Pinsopon, W. Chatlatanagulchai

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This paper presents a method of sliding mode control (SMC) designing and developing for the servo system in a dual-stage actuator (DSA) hard disk drive. Mathematical modelling of hard disk drive actuators is obtained, extracted from measuring frequency response of the voice-coil motor (VCM) and PZT micro-actuator separately. Matlab software tools are used for mathematical model estimation and also for controller design and simulation. A model-reference approach for tracking requirement is selected as a proposed technique. The simulation results show that performance of a model-reference SMC controller design in DSA servo control can be satisfied in the tracking error, as well as keeping the positioning of the head within the boundary of +/-5% of track width under the presence of internal and external disturbance. The overall results of model-reference SMC design in DSA are met per requirement specifications and significant reduction in %off track is found when compared to the single-state actuator (SSA).

Keywords: hard disk drive, dual-stage actuator, track following, hdd servo control, sliding mode control, model-reference, tracking control

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Authors: Guru Prakash, Revanth Dugalam

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A road’s condition often deteriorates due to harsh loading such as overload due to trucks, and severe environmental conditions such as heavy rain, snow load, and cyclic loading. In absence of proper maintenance planning, this results in potholes, wide cracks, bumps, and increased roughness of roads. In this paper, a data-driven model will be developed to detect these damages using vibration and image signals. The key idea of the proposed methodology is that the road anomaly manifests in these signals, which can be detected by training a machine learning algorithm. The use of various machine learning techniques such as the support vector machine and Radom Forest method will be investigated. The proposed model will first be trained and tested with artificially simulated data, and the model architecture will be finalized by comparing the accuracies of various models. Once a model is fixed, the field study will be performed, and data will be collected. The field data will be used to validate the proposed model and to predict the future road’s health condition. The proposed will help to automate the road condition monitoring process, repair cost estimation, and maintenance planning process.

Keywords: SVM, data-driven, road health monitoring, pot-hole

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Authors: Fabiola M. Villalobos-Castaldi, Nicolás C. Kemper, Esther Rojas-Krugger, Laura G. Ramírez-Sánchez

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This paper presents the classification results about exploring the combination of a motion based approach with a local appearance method to describe the facial motion caused by the muscle contractions and expansions that are presented in facial expressions. The proposed feature extraction method take advantage of the knowledge related to which parts of the face reflects the highest deformations, so we selected 4 specific facial regions at which the appearance descriptor were applied. The most common used approaches for feature extraction are the holistic and the local strategies. In this work we present the results of using a local appearance approach estimating the correlation coefficient to the 4 corresponding landmark-localized facial templates of the expression face related to the neutral face. The results let us to probe how the proposed motion estimation scheme based on the local appearance correlation computation can simply and intuitively measure the motion parameters for some of the most relevant facial regions and how these parameters can be used to recognize facial expressions automatically.

Keywords: facial expression recognition system, feature extraction, local-appearance method, motion-based approach

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Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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This paper evaluates the bit error rate (BER) performance of MIMO-OFDM communication system. MIMO system uses multiple transmitting and receiving antennas with different coding techniques to either enhance the transmission diversity or spatial multiplexing gain. Utilizing alamouti algorithm were the same information transmitted over multiple antennas at different time intervals and then collected again at the receivers to minimize the probability of error, combat fading and thus improve the received signal to noise ratio. While utilizing V-BLAST algorithm, the transmitted signals are divided into different transmitting channels and transferred over the channel to be received by different receiving antennas to increase the transmitted data rate and achieve higher throughput. The paper provides a study of different diversity gain coding schemes and spatial multiplexing coding for MIMO systems. A comparison of various channels' estimation and equalization techniques are given. The simulation is implemented using MATLAB, and the results had shown the performance of transmission models under different channel environments.

Keywords: MIMO communication, BER, space codes, channels, alamouti, V-BLAST

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Authors: Moses Emetere, Marvel Akinyemi, S. E. Sanni

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At the moment, AERONET or AMMA database shows a large volume of data loss. With only about 47% data set available to the scientist, it is evident that accurate nowcast or forecast cannot be guaranteed. The calibration constants of most radiosonde or weather stations are not compatible with the atmospheric conditions of the West African climate. A dispersion model was developed to incorporate salient mathematical representations like a Unified number. The Unified number was derived to describe the turbulence of the aerosols transport in the frictional layer of the lower atmosphere. Fourteen years data set from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) was tested using the dispersion model. A yearly estimation of the atmospheric constants over Ouagadougou using the model was obtained with about 87.5% accuracy. It further revealed that the average atmospheric constant for Ouagadougou-Niger is a_1 = 0.626, a_2 = 0.7999 and the tuning constants is n_1 = 0.09835 and n_2 = 0.266. Also, the yearly atmospheric constants affirmed the lower atmosphere of Ouagadougou is very dynamic. Hence, it is recommended that radiosonde and weather station manufacturers should constantly review the atmospheric constant over a geographical location to enable about eighty percent data retrieval.

Keywords: aerosols retention, aerosols loading, statistics, analytical technique

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Ritu Vashistha, Jitender Kumar

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Clustering using the K-means algorithm is a very common way to understand and analyze the obtained output data. When a similar object is grouped, this is called the basis of Clustering. There is K number of objects and C number of cluster in to single cluster in which k is always supposed to be less than C having each cluster to be its own centroid but the major problem is how is identify the cluster is correct based on the data. Formulation of the cluster is not a regular task for every tuple of row record or entity but it is done by an iterative process. Each and every record, tuple, entity is checked and examined and similarity dissimilarity is examined. So this iterative process seems to be very lengthy and unable to give optimal output for the cluster and time taken to find the cluster. To overcome the drawback challenge, we are proposing a formula to find the clusters at the run time, so this approach can give us optimal results. The proposed approach uses the Euclidian distance formula as well melanosis to find the minimum distance between slots as technically we called clusters and the same approach we have also applied to Ant Colony Optimization(ACO) algorithm, which results in the production of two and multi-dimensional matrix.

Keywords: ant colony optimization, data clustering, centroids, data mining, k-means

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Authors: Prayas Sharma

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This paper proposed a generalized class of estimators, an exponential class of estimators based on the adaption of Sharma and Singh (2015) and Solanki and Singh (2013), and a simple difference estimator for estimating unknown population mean in the case of Poisson distributed population in simple random sampling without replacement. The expressions for mean square errors of the proposed classes of estimators are derived from the first order of approximation. It is shown that the adapted version of Solanki and Singh (2013), the exponential class of estimator, is always more efficient than the usual estimator, ratio, product, exponential ratio, and exponential product type estimators and equally efficient to simple difference estimator. Moreover, the adapted version of Sharma and Singh's (2015) estimator is always more efficient than all the estimators available in the literature. In addition, theoretical findings are supported by an empirical study to show the superiority of the constructed estimators over others with an application to earthquake data of Turkey.

Keywords: auxiliary attribute, point bi-serial, mean square error, simple random sampling, Poisson distribution

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Authors: Rusnardi Rahmat Putra, Junji Kiyono, Aiko Furukawa

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Several powerful earthquakes have struck Padang during recent years, one of the largest of which was an M 7.6 event that occurred on September 30, 2009 and caused more than 1000 casualties. Following the event, we conducted a 12-site microtremor array investigation to gain a representative determination of the soil condition of subsurface structures in Padang. From the dispersion curve of array observations, the central business district of Padang corresponds to relatively soft soil condition with Vs30 less than 400 m/s. because only one accelerometer existed, we simulated the 2009 Padang earthquake to obtain peak ground acceleration for all sites in Padang city. By considering the damage data of the 2009 Padang earthquake, we produced seismic risk vulnerability estimation of non-engineered houses for rock, medium and soft soil condition. We estimated the loss ratio based on the ground response, seismic hazard of Padang and the existing damaged to non-engineered structure houses due to Padang earthquake in 2009 data for several return periods of earthquake events.

Keywords: profile, Padang earthquake, microtremor array, seismic vulnerability

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Authors: D. Gueribiz, F. Jacquemin, S. Fréour

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During their service life, composite materials are submitted to humid environments. The moisture absorbed by their matrix polymer induced internal stresses which can lead to multi-scale damage and may reduce the lifetime of composite structures. The estimation of internal stresses is based at a first on realistic evaluation of the diffusive behavior of composite materials. Generally, the modeling and simulation of the diffusive behavior of composite materials are extensively investigated through decoupled models based on the assumption of Fickien behavior. For these approaches, the concentration and the deformation (or stresses), the two state variables of the problem considered are governed by independent equations which are solved separately. In this study, a model coupling diffusive behavior with stresses state for a polymer matrix composite reinforced with impermeable fibers is proposed, the investigation of diffusive behavior is based on a more general thermodynamic approach which introduces a dependence of diffusive behavior on internal stresses state. The coupled diffusive behavior modeling was established in first for homogeneous and isotropic matrix and it is, thereafter, extended to impermeable unidirectional composites.

Keywords: composites materials, moisture diffusion, effective moisture diffusivity, coupled moisture diffusion

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