Search results for: load forecast

Authors: Jaroslaw Gawryluk, Andrzej Teter

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Simply supported angle columns subjected to uniform shortening are tested. The experimental studies are conducted on a testing machine using additional Aramis and the acoustic emission system. The laminate samples are subjected to axial uniform shortening. The tested columns are loaded with the force values from zero to the maximal load destroying the L-shaped column, which allowed one to observe the column post-buckling behavior until its collapse. Laboratory tests are performed at a constant velocity of the cross-bar equal to 1 mm/min. In order to eliminate stress concentrations between sample and support, flexible pads are used. Analyzed samples are made with carbon-epoxy laminate using the autoclave method. The configurations of laminate layers are: [60,0₂,-60₂,60₃,-60₂,0₃,-60₂,0,60₂]T, where direction 0 is along the length of the profile. Material parameters of laminate are: Young’s modulus along the fiber direction - 170GPa, Young’s modulus along the fiber transverse direction - 7.6GPa, shear modulus in-plane - 3.52GPa, Poisson’s ratio in-plane - 0.36. The dimensions of all columns are: length-300 mm, thickness-0.81mm, width of the flanges-40mm. Next, two numerical models of the column with and without flexible pads are developed using the finite element method in Abaqus software. The L-profile laminate column is modeled using the S8R shell elements. The layup-ply technique is used to define the sequence of the laminate layers. However, the model of grips is made of the R3D4 discrete rigid elements. The flexible pad is consists of the C3D20R type solid elements. In order to estimate the moment of the first laminate layer damage, the following initiation criteria were applied: maximum stress criterion, Tsai-Hill, Tsai-Wu, Azzi-Tsai-Hill, and Hashin criteria. The best compliance of results was observed for the Hashin criterion. It was found that the use of the pad in the numerical model significantly influences the damage mechanism. The model without pads characterized a much more stiffness, as evidenced by a greater bifurcation load and damage initiation load in all analyzed criteria, lower shortening, and less deflection of the column in its center than the model with flexible pads. Acknowledgment: The project/research was financed in the framework of the project Lublin University of Technology-Regional Excellence Initiative, funded by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education (contract no. 030/RID/2018/19).

Keywords: angle column, compression, experiment, FEM

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Authors: Suresh Kumar Reddy Narala, Rakesh Kumar Gunda

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In modern industry, mechanical parts are subjected to friction and wear, leading to heat generation, which affects the reliability, life and power consumption of machinery. To overcome the tribological losses due to friction and wear, a significant portion of lubricant with high viscous properties allows very smooth relative motion between two sliding surfaces. Advancement in modern tribology has facilitated the use of applying solid lubricants in various industrial applications. Solid lubricant additives with high viscous thin film formation between the sliding surfaces can adequately wet and adhere to a work surface. In the present investigation, an attempt has been made to investigate and evaluate the tribological studies of various solid lubricants like MoS¬2, graphite, and boric acid at different sliding conditions. The base oil used in this study was SAE 40 oil with a viscosity of 220 cSt at 400C. The tribological properties were measured on pin-on-disc tribometer. An experimental set-up has been developed for effective supply of solid lubricants to the pin-disc interface zone. The results obtained from the experiments show that the friction coefficient increases with increase in applied load for all the considered environments. The tribological properties with MoS2 solid lubricant exhibit larger load carrying capacity than that of graphite and boric acid. The present research work also contributes to the understanding of the behavior of film thickness distribution of solid lubricant using potential contact technique under different sliding conditions. The results presented in this research work are expected to form a scientific basis for selecting the best solid lubricant in various industrial applications for possible minimization of friction and wear.

Keywords: friction, wear, temperature, solid lubricant

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Authors: K. M. Yoo, M. H. Kang

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Conventional commercial wind turbine design software is limited to large wind turbines due to not incorporating with low Reynold’s Number aerodynamic characteristics typically for small wind turbines. To extract maximum annual energy product from an intermediately designed small wind turbine associated with measured wind data, numerous simulation is highly recommended to have a best fitting planform design with proper airfoil configuration. Since depending upon wind distribution with average wind speed, an optimal wind turbine planform design changes accordingly. It is theoretically not difficult, though, it is very inconveniently time-consuming design procedure to finalize conceptual layout of a desired small wind turbine. Thus, to help simulations easier and faster, a GUI software is developed to conveniently iterate and change airfoil types, wind data, and geometric blade data as well. With magnetic generator torque curve, peak power tracking simulation is also available to better match with the magnetic generator. Small wind turbine often lacks starting torque due to blade optimization. Thus this simulation is also embedded along with yaw design. This software provides various blade cross section details at user’s design convenience such as skin thickness control with fiber direction option, spar shape, and their material properties. Since small wind turbine is under international safety regulations with fatigue damage during normal operations and safety load analyses with ultimate excessive loads, load analyses are provided with each category mandated in the safety regulations.

Keywords: GUI software, Low Reynold’s number aerodynamics, peak power tracking, safety regulations, wind turbine performance optimization

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Authors: Marjan Golmaryami, Marzieh Behzadi

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Recent developments in stock exchange highlight the need for an efficient and accurate method that helps stockholders make better decision. Since stock markets have lots of fluctuations during the time and different effective parameters, it is difficult to make good decisions. The purpose of this study is to employ artificial neural network (ANN) which can deal with time series data and nonlinear relation among variables to forecast next day stock price. Unlike other evolutionary algorithms which were utilized in stock exchange prediction, we trained our proposed neural network with metaheuristic bat algorithm, with fast and powerful convergence and applied it in stock price prediction for the first time. In order to prove the performance of the proposed method, this research selected a 7 year dataset from Parsian Bank stocks and after imposing data preprocessing, used 3 types of ANN (back propagation-ANN, particle swarm optimization-ANN and bat-ANN) to predict the closed price of stocks. Afterwards, this study engaged MATLAB to simulate 3 types of ANN, with the scoring target of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results may be adapted to other companies stocks too.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), bat algorithm, particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), stock exchange

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Authors: J. Julius Adebayo

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The objective of this paper is to assess the agro-climatic condition of Ibadan in the rain forest ecological zone of Nigeria, using rainfall pattern and temperature between 1978-2018. Data on rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Oyo State for a period of 40 years were obtained from Meteorological Section of Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan and Oyo State Meteorology Centre. Time series analysis was employed to analyze the data. The trend revealed that rainfall is decreasing slowly and temperature is averagely increasing year after year. The model for rainfall and temperature are Yₜ = 1454.11-8*t and Yₜ = 31.5995 + 2.54 E-02*t respectively, where t is the time. On this basis, a forecast of 20 years (2019-2038) was generated, and the results showed a further downward trend on rainfall and upward trend in temperature, this indicates persistence rainfall shortage and very hot weather for agricultural practices in the southwest rain forest ecological zone. Suggestions on possible solutions to avert climate change crisis and also promote climate-smart agriculture for sustainable food and nutrition security were also discussed.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall pattern, temperature, time series analysis, food and nutrition security

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Authors: A. Porshnev, A. Zaporozhtchuk

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Motivation regarded as a key factor of labor turnover, is especially important for volunteers working on an altruistic basis in NGO. Despite the motivational letter, candidate selection depends on the impression of the selection committee, which can be subject to human bias. We expect that structured and unstructured information provided in motivation letters could be used to improve candidate selection procedures. In our paper, we perform qualitative and quantitative analysis of 2280 motivation letters, create logistic regression, and build a decision tree to improve selection procedures. Our analysis showed that motivation factors are significant and enable human resources department to forecast labor turnover and provide extra information to demographic, professional and timing questions. In spite of the average level of accuracy the model demonstrates the selection procedures of company of under consideration can be improved. We also discuss interrelation between answers to open and closed motivation questions, recommend changes in motivational letter templates to ensure more relevant information about applicants and further steps to create more accurate model.

Keywords: decision trees, logistic regression, model, motivational letter, non-governmental organization, retention, turnover

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Authors: Mohammed Saleh Rezk, Reza Kashani

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Auxiliary damping has gained popularity in recent years, especially in structures such as mid- and high-rise buildings. Distributed damping systems (typically viscous and viscoelastic) or reactive damping systems (such as tuned mass dampers) are the two types of damping choices for such structures. Distributed VE dampers are normally configured as braces or damping panels, which are engaged through relatively small movements between the structural members when the structure sways under wind or earthquake loading. In addition to being used as stand-alone dampers in distributed damping applications, VE dampers can also be incorporated into the suspension element of tuned mass dampers (TMDs). In this study, analytical and numerical tools for modeling and design of multilayer viscoelastic damping devices to be used in dampening the vibration of large structures are developed. Considering the limitations of analytical models for the synthesis and analysis of realistic, large, multilayer VE dampers, the emphasis of the study has been on numerical modeling using the finite element method. To verify the finite element models, a two-layer VE damper using ½ inch synthetic viscoelastic urethane polymer was built, tested, and the measured parameters were compared with the numerically predicted ones. The numerical model prediction and experimentally evaluated damping and stiffness of the test VE damper were in very good agreement. The effectiveness of VE dampers in adding auxiliary damping to larger structures is numerically demonstrated by chevron bracing one such damper numerically into the model of a massive frame subject to an abrupt lateral load. A comparison of the responses of the frame to the aforementioned load, without and with the VE damper, clearly shows the efficacy of the damper in lowering the extent of frame vibration.

Keywords: viscoelastic, damper, distributed damping, tuned mass damper

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Authors: Maryam Hasanali, Syed Mohammad Mojtabaei, Iman Hajirasouliha, G. Charles Clifton, James B. P. Lim

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Cold-formed steel (CFS) elements are increasingly being used as main load-bearing components in the modern construction industry, including low- to mid-rise buildings. In typical multi-storey buildings, CFS structural members act as beam-column elements since they are exposed to combined axial compression and bending actions, both in moment-resisting frames and stud wall systems. Current design specifications, including the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI S100) and the Australian/New Zealand Standard (AS/NZS 4600), neglect the beneficial effects of warping-restrained boundary conditions in the design of beam-column elements. Furthermore, while a non-linear relationship governs the interaction of axial compression and bending, the combined effect of these actions is taken into account through a simplified linear expression combining pure axial and flexural strengths. This paper aims to evaluate the reliability of the well-known Direct Strength Method (DSM) as well as design proposals found in the literature to provide a better understanding of the efficiency of the code-prescribed linear interaction equation in the strength predictions of CFS beam columns and the effects of warping-restrained boundary conditions on their behavior. To this end, the experimentally validated finite element (FE) models of CFS elements under compression and bending were developed in ABAQUS software, which accounts for both non-linear material properties and geometric imperfections. The validated models were then used for a comprehensive parametric study containing 270 FE models, covering a wide range of key design parameters, such as length (i.e., 0.5, 1.5, and 3 m), thickness (i.e., 1, 2, and 4 mm) and cross-sectional dimensions under ten different load eccentricity levels. The results of this parametric study demonstrated that using the DSM led to the most conservative strength predictions for beam-column members by up to 55%, depending on the element’s length and thickness. This can be sourced by the errors associated with (i) the absence of warping-restrained boundary condition effects, (ii) equations for the calculations of buckling loads, and (iii) the linear interaction equation. While the influence of warping restraint is generally less than 6%, the code suggested interaction equation led to an average error of 4% to 22%, based on the element lengths. This paper highlights the need to provide more reliable design solutions for CFS beam-column elements for practical design purposes.

Keywords: beam-columns, cold-formed steel, finite element model, interaction equation, warping-restrained boundary conditions

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Authors: Ala Abobakr Abdulhafidh Al-Dubai

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Bone loss has risen due to fractures, surgeries, and traumatic injuries. Scientists and engineers have worked over the years to find solutions to heal and accelerate bone regeneration. The bone grafting technique has been utilized, which projects significant improvement in the bone regeneration area. An extensive study is essential on the relation between the mechanical properties of bone scaffolds and the pore size of the scaffolds, as well as the relation between the mechanical properties of bone scaffolds with the development of bioactive coating on the scaffolds. In reducing the cost and time, a mechanical simulation analysis is beneficial to simulate both relations. Therefore, this study highlights the simulated mechanical analyses on three-dimensional (3D) polylactic acid (PLA) scaffolds at two different pore sizes (P: 400 and 600 μm) and two different internals distances of (D: 600 and 900 μm), with and without the presence of hydroxyapatite (HA) coating. The 3D scaffold models were designed using SOLIDWORKS software. The respective material properties were assigned with the fixation of boundary conditions on the meshed 3D models. Two different loads were applied on the PLA scaffolds, including side loads of 200 N and vertical loads of 2 kN. While only vertical loads of 2 kN were applied on the HA coated PLA scaffolds. The PLA scaffold P600D900, which has the largest pore size and maximum internal distance, generated the minimum stress under the applied vertical load. However, that same scaffold became weaker under the applied side load due to the high construction gap between the pores. The development of HA coating on top of the PLA scaffolds induced greater stress generation compared to the non-coated scaffolds which is tailorable for bone implantation. This study concludes that the pore size and the construction of HA coating on bone scaffolds affect the mechanical strength of the bone scaffolds.

Keywords: hydroxyapatite coating, bone scaffold, mechanical simulation, three-dimensional (3D), polylactic acid (PLA).

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Authors: Pedro Ferreira, Alexandre Frugoli, Pedro Frugoli, Lucio Leonardo, Thais Cavalheri

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The teaching of fluid mechanics in engineering courses is, in general, a source of great difficulties for learning. The possibility of the use of experiments with didactic wind tunnels can facilitate the education of future professionals. The objective of this proposal is the development of a low-cost aerodynamic balance to be used in a didactic wind tunnel. The set is comprised of an Arduino microcontroller, programmed by an open source software, linked to load cells built by students from another project. The didactic wind tunnel is 5,0m long and the test area is 90,0 cm x 90,0 cm x 150,0 cm. The Weq® electric motor, model W-22 of 9,2 HP, moves a fan with nine blades, each blade 32,0 cm long. The Weq® frequency inverter, model WEGCFW 08 (Vector Inverter) is responsible for wind speed control and also for the motor inversion of the rotational direction. A flat-convex profile prototype of airfoil was tested by measuring the drag and lift forces for certain attack angles; the air flux conditions remained constant, monitored by a Pitot tube connected to a EXTECH® Instruments digital pressure differential manometer Model HD755. The results indicate a good agreement with the theory. The choice of all of the components of this proposal resulted in a low-cost product providing a high level of specific knowledge of mechanics of fluids, which may be a good alternative to teaching in countries with scarce educational resources. The system also allows the expansion to measure other parameters like fluid velocity, temperature, pressure as well as the possibility of automation of other functions.

Keywords: aerodynamic balance, wind tunnel, strain gauge, load cell, Arduino, low-cost education

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Authors: Salahaeddine Sbai

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Air quality analysis using machine learning models is a method employed to assess and predict air pollution levels. This approach leverages the capabilities of machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of air quality data and extract valuable insights. By training these models on historical air quality data, they can learn patterns and relationships between various factors such as weather conditions, pollutant emissions, and geographical features. The trained models can then be used to predict air quality levels in real-time or forecast future pollution levels. This application of machine learning in air quality analysis enables policymakers, environmental agencies, and the general public to make informed decisions regarding health, environmental impact, and mitigation strategies. By understanding the factors influencing air quality, interventions can be implemented to reduce pollution levels, mitigate health risks, and enhance overall air quality management. Climate change is having significant impacts on Morocco, affecting various aspects of the country's environment, economy, and society. In this study, we use some machine learning models under python environment to predict and analysis air quality change over North of Morocco to evaluate the climate change impact on agriculture.

Keywords: air quality, machine learning models, pollution, pollutant emissions

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Marimuthu Gurusamy

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In vibration analysis (with accelerometers) of rotating machines with rolling element bearing, the customers are interested to know the failure of the machine well in advance to plan the spare inventory and maintenance. But in real world most of the machines fails before the prediction of vibration analyst or Expert analysis software. Presently the prediction of failure is based on ISO 10816 vibration limits only. But this is not enough to monitor the failure of machines well in advance. Because more than 50% of the machines will fail even the vibration readings are within acceptable zone as per ISO 10816.Hence it requires further detail analysis and different techniques to predict the failure well in advance. In vibration Analysis, the velocity spectrum is used to analyse the root cause of the mechanical problems like unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc. The envelope spectrum are used to analyse the bearing frequency components, hence the failure in inner race, outer race and rolling elements are identified. But so far there is no correlation made between these two concepts. The author used both velocity spectrum and Envelope spectrum to analyse the machine behaviour and bearing condition to correlated the changes in dynamic load (by unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc.) and effect of impact on the bearing. Hence we could able to predict the expected life of the machine and bearings in the rotating equipment (with rolling element bearings). Also we used process parameters like temperature, flow and pressure to correlate with flow induced vibration and load variations, when abnormal vibration occurs due to changes in process parameters. Hence by correlation of velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum and process data with 20 years of experience in vibration analysis, the author could able to predict the rotating Equipment and its component’s deterioration and expected duration for maintenance.

Keywords: vibration analysis, velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum, prediction of deterioration

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Authors: Michał Lidner, Zbigniew SzcześNiak

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The ability to estimate blast load overpressure properly plays an important role in safety design of buildings. The issue of studying of blast loading on structural elements has been explored for many years. However, in many literature reports shock wave overpressure is estimated with simplified triangular or exponential distribution in time. This indicates some errors when comparing real and numerical reaction of elements. Nonetheless, it is possible to further improve setting similar to the real blast load overpressure function versus time. The paper presents a method of numerical analysis of the phenomenon of the air shock wave propagation. It uses Finite Volume Method and takes into account energy losses due to a heat transfer with respect to an adiabatic process rule. A system of three equations (conservation of mass, momentum and energy) describes the flow of a volume of gaseous medium in the area remote from building compartments, which can inhibit the movement of gas. For validation three cases of a shock wave flow were analyzed: a free field explosion, an explosion inside a steel insusceptible tube (the 1D case) and an explosion inside insusceptible cube (the 3D case). The results of numerical analysis were compared with the literature reports. Values of impulse, pressure, and its duration were studied. Finally, an overall good convergence of numerical results with experiments was achieved. Also the most important parameters were well reflected. Additionally analyses of dynamic response of one of considered structural element were made.

Keywords: adiabatic process, air shock wave, explosive, finite volume method

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Authors: M. Kozłowski, M. Kadela

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Foamed concrete is known for its low self-weight and excellent thermal and acoustic properties. For many years, it has been used worldwide for insulation to foundations and roof tiles, as backfill to retaining walls, sound insulation, etc. However, in the last years it has become a promising material also for structural purposes e.g. for stabilization of weak soils. Due to favorable properties of foamed concrete, many interests and studies were involved to analyze its strength, mechanical, thermal and acoustic properties. However, these studies do not cover the investigation of fracture energy which is the core factor governing the damage and fracture mechanisms. Only limited number of publications can be found in literature. The paper presents the results of experimental investigation and numerical campaign of foamed concrete based on three-point bending test of beams with initial notch. First part of the paper presents the results of a series of static loading tests performed to investigate the fracture properties of foamed concrete of varying density. Beam specimens with dimensions of 100×100×840 mm with a central notch were tested in three-point bending. Subsequently, remaining halves of the specimens with dimensions of 100×100×420 mm were tested again as un-notched beams in the same set-up with reduced distance between supports. The tests were performed in a hydraulic displacement controlled testing machine with a load capacity of 5 kN. Apart from measuring the loading and mid-span displacement, a crack mouth opening displacement (CMOD) was monitored. Based on the load – displacement curves of notched beams the values of fracture energy and tensile stress at failure were calculated. The flexural tensile strength was obtained on un-notched beams with dimensions of 100×100×420 mm. Moreover, cube specimens 150×150×150 mm were tested in compression to determine the compressive strength. Second part of the paper deals with numerical investigation of the fracture behavior of beams with initial notch presented in the first part of the paper. Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was used to simulate and analyze the damage and fracture process. The influence of meshing and variation of mechanical properties on results was investigated. Numerical models simulate correctly the behavior of beams observed during three-point bending. The numerical results show that XFEM can be used to simulate different fracture toughness of foamed concrete and fracture types. Using the XFEM and computer simulation technology allow for reliable approximation of load–bearing capacity and damage mechanisms of beams made of foamed concrete, which provides some foundations for realistic structural applications.

Keywords: foamed concrete, fracture energy, three-point bending, XFEM

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Authors: M. R. Gholizadeh, N. Bhuiyan, M. Salari

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In the near future, companies will be increasingly forced to shift their activities along a new road in order to decrease the harmful effects of their design, production and after-life on our environment. Products must meet environmental standards to not only prevent penalties but to consider the sustainability for future generations. However, the most important factor that companies will face is selecting a reasonable strategy to maximize their profit. Thus, companies need to have precise forecast from their profit after design stage through Trade-off analysis. This paper is an attempt to introduce a mathematical model that considers effective factors that impact the total profit when products are designed for resource and energy efficiency or recyclability. The modification is according to different strategies based on a Cost-Volume-Profit model. Here, the cost structure consists of Recycling cost, Development cost, Ramp-up cost, Production cost, and Pollution cost. Also, the model shows the effect of implementation of design for recyclable on revenue structure through revenue of used parts and revenue of recycled materials. A numerical example is used to evaluate the proposed model. Results show that fulfillment of Green Product Development not only can reduce the environmental impact of products but also it will increase profit of company in long term.

Keywords: green product, design for environment, C-V-P model, trade-off analysis

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Authors: Morteza Raminnia

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In this study, dynamic analysis of functionally graded nano-composite pipe reinforced by single-walled carbon nano-tubes (SWCNTs) with simply supported boundary condition subjected to moving mechanical loads is investigated. The material properties of functionally graded carbon nano tube-reinforced composites (FG-CNTRCs) are assumed to be graded in the thickness direction and are estimated through a micro-mechanical model. In this paper polymeric matrix considered as isotropic material and for the CNTRC, uniform distribution (UD) and three types of FG distribution patterns of SWCNT reinforcements are considered. The system equation of motion is derived by using Hamilton's principle under the assumptions of first order shear deformation theory (FSDT).The thin piezoelectric layers embedded on inner and outer surfaces of FG-CNTRC layer are acted as distributed sensor and actuator to control dynamic characteristics of the FG-CNTRC laminated pipe. The modal analysis technique and Newmark's integration method are used to calculate the displacement and dynamic stress of the pipe subjected to moving loads. The effects of various material distribution and velocity of moving loads on dynamic behavior of the pipe is presented. This present approach is validated by comparing the numerical results with the published numerical results in literature. The results show that the above-mentioned effects play very important role on dynamic behavior of the pipe .This present work shows that some meaningful results that which are interest to scientific and engineering community in the field of FGM nano-structures.

Keywords: nano-composite, functionally garded material, moving load, active control, PZT layers

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Authors: R. K. Saket

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This paper presents design aspects and probabilistic approach for generation reliability evaluation of an alternative resource: municipal waste water based micro hydro power generation system. Annual and daily flow duration curves have been obtained for design, installation, development, scientific analysis and reliability evaluation of the MHPP. The hydro potential of the waste water flowing through sewage system of the BHU campus has been determined to produce annual flow duration and daily flow duration curves by ordering the recorded water flows from maximum to minimum values. Design pressure, the roughness of the pipe’s interior surface, method of joining, weight, ease of installation, accessibility to the sewage system, design life, maintenance, weather conditions, availability of material, related cost and likelihood of structural damage have been considered for design of a particular penstock for reliable operation of the MHPP. A MHPGS based on MWW and SEIG is designed, developed, and practically implemented to provide reliable electric energy to suitable load in the campus of the Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, (UP), India. Generation reliability evaluation of the developed MHPP using Gaussian distribution approach, safety factor concept, peak load consideration and Simpson 1/3rd rule has presented in this paper.

Keywords: self excited induction generator, annual and daily flow duration curve, sewage system, municipal waste water, reliability evaluation, Gaussian distribution, Simpson 1/3rd rule

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Authors: Amir Andria Gad Shehata

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: spare part, spare part inventory, inventory model, optimization, maintenanceneural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Ananya Pal, Neelakshi Sarkar, Debraj Saha, Dipanwita Das, Subhashish Kamal Guha, Bibhuti Saha, Runu Chakravarty

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Presently, tenofovir disoproxil fumurate (TDF) is the most effective anti-viral agent for the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in individuals co-infected with HIV and HBV as TDF has activity to suppress both wild-type and lamivudine (3TC)-resistant HBV. However, suboptimal response to TDF was reported in HIV-HBV co-infected individuals with prior 3TC therapy from different countries recently. The incidence of 3TC-resistant HBV strains is quite high in HIV-HBV co-infected patients experiencing long-term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in eastern India. In spite of this risk, most of the patients with long-term 3TC treatment are continued with the same anti-viral agent in this country. Only a few have received TDF in addition to 3TC in the ART regimen since TDF has been available in India for the treatment of HIV-infected patients in 2012. In this preliminary study, we investigated the virologic and biochemical parameters among HIV-HBV co-infected patients who are non-responders to 3TC treatment during the continuation of 3TC or TDF add-on to 3TC in their ART regimen. Fifteen HIV-HBV co-infected patients who experienced long-term 3TC (mean duration months 36.87 ± 24.08 months) were identified with high HBV viremia ( > 20,000 IU/ml) or harbouring 3TC-resistant HBV. These patients receiving ART from School of Tropical Medicine Kolkata, the main ART centre in eastern India were followed-up semi-annually for next three visits. Different virologic parameters including quantification of plasma HBV load by real-time PCR, detection of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) by commercial ELISA and anti-viral resistant mutations by sequencing were studied. During three follow-up among study subjects, 86%, 47%, and 43% had 3TC-mono-therapy (mean treatment-duration 41.54±18.84, 49.67±11.67, 54.17±12.37 months respectively) whereas 14%, 53%, and 57% experienced TDF in addition to 3TC (mean treatment duration 4.5±2.12, 16.56±11.06, and 23±4.07 months respectively). Mean CD4 cell-count in patients receiving 3TC was tended to be lower during third follow-up as compared to the first and the second [520.67±380.30 (1st), 454.8±196.90 (2nd), and 397.5±189.24 (3rd) cells/mm3) and similar trend was seen in patients experiencing TDF in addition to 3TC [334.5±330.218 (1st), 476.5±194.25 (2nd), and 461.17±269.89 (3rd) cells/mm3]. Serum HBV load was increased during successive follow-up of patients with 3TC-mono-therapy. Initiation of TDF lowered serum HBV-load among 3TC-non-responders at the time of second visit ( < 2,000 IU/ml), interestingly during third follow-up, mean HBV viremia increased >1 log IU/ml (mean 3.56±2.84 log IU/ml). Persistence of 3TC-resistant double and triple mutations was also observed in both the treatment regimens. Mean serum alanine aminotransferase remained elevated in these patients during this follow-up study. Persistence of high HBV viraemia and 3TC-resistant mutation in HBV during the continuation of 3TC might lead to major public health threat in India. The inclusion of TDF in the ART regimen of 3TC non-responder HIV-HBV co-infected patients showed adverse treatment response in terms of virologic and biochemical parameters. Therefore, serious attention is necessary for proper management of long-term 3TC experienced HIV-HBV co-infected patients with high HBV viraemia or 3TC-resistant HBV mutants in India.

Keywords: HBV, HIV, TDF, 3TC-resistant

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Authors: Ali Al-Ghalib, Fouad Mohammad

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The identification of damage in reinforced concrete structures subjected to incremental cracking performance exploiting vibration data is recognized as a challenging topic in the published and heavily cited literature. Therefore, this paper attempts to shine light on the extent of dynamic methods when applied to reinforced concrete beams simulated with various scenarios of defects. For this purpose, three different reinforced concrete beams are tested through the course of the study. The three beams are loaded statically to failure in incremental successive load cycles and later rehabilitated. After each static load stage, the beams are tested under free-free support condition using experimental modal analysis. The beams were all of the same length and cross-sectional area (2.0x0.14x0.09)m, but they were different in concrete compressive strength and the type of damage presented. The experimental modal parameters as damage identification parameters were showed computationally expensive, time consuming and require substantial inputs and considerable expertise. Nonetheless, they were proved plausible for the condition monitoring of the current case study as well as structural changes in the course of progressive loads. It was accentuated that a satisfactory localization and quantification for structural changes (Level 2 and Level 3 of damage identification problem) can only be achieved reasonably through considering frequencies and mode shapes of a system in a proper analytical model. A convenient post analysis process for various datasets of vibration measurements for the three beams is conducted in order to extract, check and correlate the basic modal parameters; namely, natural frequency, modal damping and mode shapes. The results of the extracted modal parameters and their combination are utilized and discussed in this research as quantification parameters.

Keywords: experimental modal analysis, damage identification, structural health monitoring, reinforced concrete beam

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Authors: Sara Patricia Ibarra-Zavaleta, Rabindranarth Romero-Lopez, Rosario Langrave, Annie Poulin, Gerald Corzo, Mathias Glaus, Ricardo Vega-Azamar, Norma Angelica Oropeza

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The progressive change in climatic conditions worldwide has increased frequency and severity of extreme hydrometeorological events (EHE). Mexico is an example; this has been affected by the presence of EHE leaving economic, social and environmental losses. The objective of this research was to apply a Canadian distributed hydrological model (DHM) to tropical conditions and to evaluate its capacity to predict flows in a basin in the central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the DHM (once calibrated and validated) was used to calculate the theoretical hydraulic power and the performance to predict streamflow before the presence of an EHE. The results of the DHM show that the goodness of fit indicators between the observed and simulated flows in the calibration process (NSE=0.83, RSR=0.021 and BIAS=-4.3) and validation: temporal was assessed at two points: point one (NSE=0.78, RSR=0.113 and BIAS=0.054) and point two (NSE=0.825, RSR=0.103 and BIAS=0.063) are satisfactory. The DHM showed its applicability in tropical environments and its ability to characterize the rainfall-runoff relationship in the study area. This work can serve as a tool for identifying vulnerabilities before floods and for the rational and sustainable management of water resources.

Keywords: HYDROTEL, hydraulic power, extreme hydrometeorological events, streamflow

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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This paper deals with different modeling aspects of masonry infill: no infill model, Layered shell infill model, and strut infill model. These models consider the complicated behavior of the in-filled plane frames under lateral load similar to an earthquake load. Three strut infill models are used: NBCC (2005) strut infill model, ASCE/SEI 41-06 strut infill model and proposed strut infill model based on modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) strut infill model. Pushover and modal analyses of a masonry infill concrete frame with a single storey and an existing 5-storey RC building have been carried out by using different models for masonry infill. The corresponding hinge status, the value of base shear at target displacement as well as their dynamic characteristics have been determined and compared. A validation of the structural numerical models for the existing 5-storey RC building has been achieved by comparing the experimentally measured and the analytically estimated natural frequencies and their mode shapes. This study shows that ASCE/SEI 41-06 equation underestimates the values for the equivalent properties of the diagonal strut while Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation gives realistic values for the equivalent properties. The results indicate that both ASCE/SEI 41-06 and Canadian, NBCC (2005) equations for strut infill model give over estimated values for dynamic characteristic of the building. Proposed modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation shows that the fundamental dynamic characteristic values of the building are nearly similar to the corresponding values using layered shell elements as well as measured field results.

Keywords: masonry infill, framed structures, RC buildings, non-structural elements

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Anupam Purwar

Abstract:

In conventional consumer product industry, stockouts are taken care by carrying buffer stock to check underserving caused by changes in customer demand, incorrect forecast or variability in lead times. But, for food outlets, the alternate of carrying buffer stock is unviable because of indispensable need to serve freshly cooked meals. Besides, the food outlet being the sole provider has no incentives to reduce stockouts, as they have no fear of losing revenue, gross profit, customers and market share. Hence, innovative, easy to implement and practical ways of addressing the twin problem of long queues and poor customer experience needs to be investigated. Current work analyses the demand pattern of 11 different food items across a routine day. Based on this optimum resource allocation for all food items has been carried out by solving a linear programming problem with cost minimization as the objective. Concurrently, recommendations have been devised to address this demand and supply side problem keeping in mind their practicability. Currently, the recommendations are being discussed and implemented at ISB (Indian School of Business) Hyderabad campus.

Keywords: F&B industry, resource allocation, demand management, linear programming, LP, queuing analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: G. S. Ayyappan, Srinivas Kota, Jaffer R. C. Sheriff, C. Prakash Chandra Joshua

Abstract:

In the present scenario of energy crises, energy conservation in the electrical machines is very important in the industries. In order to conserve energy, one needs to monitor the performance of an induction motor on-site and in-situ. The instruments available for this purpose are very meager and very expensive. This paper deals with the design and development of induction motor performance analyser on-line, on-site, and in-situ. The system measures only few electrical input parameters like input voltage, line current, power factor, frequency, powers, and motor shaft speed. These measured data are coupled to name plate details and compute the operating efficiency of induction motor. This system employs the method of computing motor losses with the help of equivalent circuit parameters. The equivalent circuit parameters of the concerned motor are estimated using the developed algorithm at any load conditions and stored in the system memory. The developed instrument is a reliable, accurate, compact, rugged, and cost-effective one. This portable instrument could be used as a handy tool to study the performance of both slip ring and cage induction motors. During the analysis, the data can be stored in SD Memory card and one can perform various analyses like load vs. efficiency, torque vs. speed characteristics, etc. With the help of the developed instrument, one can operate the motor around its Best Operating Point (BOP). Continuous monitoring of the motor efficiency could lead to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of motors. LCA helps in taking decisions on motor replacement or retaining or refurbishment.

Keywords: energy conservation, equivalent circuit parameters, induction motor efficiency, life cycle assessment, motor performance analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Belal Almassri, Amjad Kreit, Firas Al Mahmoud, Raoul François

Abstract:

Corrosion of steel in reinforced concrete leads to several major defects. Firstly, a reduction in the crosssectional area of the reinforcement and in its ductility results in premature bar failure. Secondly, the expansion of the corrosion products causes concrete cracking and steel–concrete bond deterioration and also affects the bending stiffness of the reinforced concrete members, causing a reduction in the overall load-bearing capacity of the reinforced concrete beams. This paper investigates the validity of a repair technique using Near Surface Mounted (NSM) carbon-fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) rods to restore the mechanical performance of corrosion-damaged RC beams. In the NSM technique, the CFRP rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves and are bonded to the concrete with epoxy adhesive. Experimental results were obtained on two beams: a corroded beam that had been exposed to natural corrosion for 25 years and a control beam, (both are 3 m long) repaired in bending only. Each beam was repaired with one 6-mm-diameter NSM CFRP rod. The beams were tested in a three-point bending test up to failure. Overall stiffness and crack maps were studied before and after the repair. Ultimate capacity, ductility and failure mode were also reviewed. Finally some comparisons were made between repaired and non-repaired beams in order to assess the effectiveness of the NSM technique. The experimental results showed that the NSM technique improved the overall characteristics (ultimate load capacity and stiffness) of the control and corroded beams and allowed sufficient ductility to be restored to the repaired corroded elements, thus restoring the safety margin, despite the non-classical mode of failure that occurred in the corroded beam, with the separation of the concrete cover due to corrosion products.

Keywords: carbon fibre, corrosion, strength, mechanical testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Pablo Chico De Guzman, Cesar Sanchez

Abstract:

Microservice architectures are increasingly in distributed cloud applications due to the advantages on the software composition, development speed, release cycle frequency and the business logic time to market. On the other hand, these architectures also introduce some challenges on the testing and release phases of applications. Container technology solves some of these issues by providing reproducible environments, easy of software distribution and isolation of processes. However, there are other issues that remain unsolved in current container technology when dealing with multiple machines, such as networking for multi-host communication, service discovery, load balancing or data persistency (even though some of these challenges are already solved by traditional cloud vendors in a very mature and widespread manner). Container cluster management tools, such as Kubernetes, Mesos or Docker Swarm, attempt to solve these problems by introducing a new control layer where the unit of deployment is the container (or the pod — a set of strongly related containers that must be deployed on the same machine). These tools are complex to configure and manage and they do not follow a pure immutable infrastructure approach since servers are reused between deployments. Indeed, these tools introduce dependencies at execution time for solving networking or service discovery problems. If an error on the control layer occurs, which would affect running applications, specific expertise is required to perform ad-hoc troubleshooting. As a consequence, it is not surprising that container cluster support is becoming a source of revenue for consulting services. This paper presents i2kit, a deployment tool based on the immutable infrastructure pattern, where the virtual machine is the unit of deployment. The input for i2kit is a declarative definition of a set of microservices, where each microservice is defined as a pod of containers. Microservices are built into machine images using linuxkit —- a tool for creating minimal linux distributions specialized in running containers. These machine images are then deployed to one or more virtual machines, which are exposed through a cloud vendor load balancer. Finally, the load balancer endpoint is set into other microservices using an environment variable, providing service discovery. The toolkit i2kit reuses the best ideas from container technology to solve problems like reproducible environments, process isolation, and software distribution, and at the same time relies on mature, proven cloud vendor technology for networking, load balancing and persistency. The result is a more robust system with no learning curve for troubleshooting running applications. We have implemented an open source prototype that transforms i2kit definitions into AWS cloud formation templates, where each microservice AMI (Amazon Machine Image) is created on the fly using linuxkit. Even though container cluster management tools have more flexibility for resource allocation optimization, we defend that adding a new control layer implies more important disadvantages. Resource allocation is greatly improved by using linuxkit, which introduces a very small footprint (around 35MB). Also, the system is more secure since linuxkit installs the minimum set of dependencies to run containers. The toolkit i2kit is currently under development at the IMDEA Software Institute.

Keywords: container, deployment, immutable infrastructure, microservice

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Kashif Hassan, M.A. Ahanger

Abstract:

Floods have become more frequent and severe due to effects of global climate change and human alterations of the natural environment. Flood prediction/ forecasting and control is one of the greatest challenges facing the world today. The forecast of floods is achieved by the use of hydraulic models such as HEC-RAS, which are designed to simulate flow processes of the surface water. Extreme flood events in river Jhelum , lasting from a day to few are a major disaster in the State of Jammu and Kashmir, India. In the present study HEC-RAS model was applied to two different reaches of river Jhelum in order to estimate the flood levels corresponding to 25, 50 and 100 year return period flood events at important locations and to deduce flood vulnerability of important areas and structures. The flow rates for the two reaches were derived from flood-frequency analysis of 50 years of historic peak flow data. Manning's roughness coefficient n was selected using detailed analysis. Rating Curves were also generated to serve as base for determining the boundary conditions. Calibration and Validation procedures were applied in order to ensure the reliability of the model. Sensitivity analysis was also performed in order to ensure the accuracy of Manning's n in generating water surface profiles.

Keywords: flood plain, HEC-RAS, Jhelum, return period

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Bonginkosi A. Thango, Jacobus A. Jordaan, Agha F. Nnachi

Abstract:

In this day and age, there is a proliferate concern from all governments across the globe to barricade the environment from greenhouse gases, which absorb infrared radiation. As a result, solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity has been an expeditiously growing renewable energy source and will eventually undertake a prominent role in the global energy generation. The selection and purchasing of energy-efficient transformers that meet the operational requirements of the solar photovoltaic energy generation plants then become a part of the Independent Power Producers (IPP’s) investment plan of action. Taking these into account, this paper proposes a procedure that put into effect the intricate financial analysis necessitated to precisely evaluate the transformer service lifetime no-load and load loss factors. This procedure correctly set forth the transformer service lifetime loss factors as a result of a solar PV plant’s sporadic generation profile and related levelized costs of electricity into the computation of the transformer’s total ownership cost. The results are then critically compared with the conventional transformer total ownership cost unaccompanied by the emission costs, and demonstrate the significance of the sporadic energy generation nature of the solar PV plant on the total ownership cost. The findings indicate that the latter play a crucial role for developers and Independent Power Producers (IPP’s) in making the purchase decision during a tender bid where competing offers from different transformer manufactures are evaluated. Additionally, the susceptibility analysis of different factors engrossed in the transformer service lifetime cost is carried out; factors including the levelized cost of electricity, solar PV plant’s generation modes, and the loading profile are examined.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic plant, transformer, total ownership cost, loss factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Katarzyna Rzeszut, Ilona Szewczak

Abstract:

The review of selected methods of strengthening of steel structures with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) tapes and the analysis of influence of composite materials on the steel thin-walled elements are performed in this paper. The study is also focused to the problem of applying fast and effective strengthening methods of the steel structures made of thin-walled profiles. It is worth noting that the issue of strengthening the thin-walled structures is a very complex, due to inability to perform welded joints in this type of elements and the limited ability to applying mechanical fasteners. Moreover, structures made of thin-walled cross-section demonstrate a high sensitivity to imperfections and tendency to interactive buckling, which may substantially contribute to the reduction of critical load capacity. Due to the lack of commonly used and recognized modern methods of strengthening of thin-walled steel structures, authors performed the experimental studies of thin-walled sigma profiles strengthened with CFRP tapes. The paper presents the experimental stand and the preliminary results of laboratory test concerning the analysis of the effectiveness of the strengthening steel beams made of thin-walled sigma profiles with CFRP tapes. The study includes six beams made of the cold-rolled sigma profiles with height of 140 mm, wall thickness of 2.5 mm, and a length of 3 m, subjected to the uniformly distributed load. Four beams have been strengthened with carbon fiber tape Sika CarboDur S, while the other two were tested without strengthening to obtain reference results. Based on the obtained results, the evaluation of the accuracy of applied composite materials for strengthening of thin-walled structures was performed.

Keywords: CFRP tapes, sigma profiles, steel thin-walled structures, strengthening

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Salman Al-Alyani

Abstract:

In line with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Saudi Green initiative was announced aimed at reducing carbon emissions by more than 4% of the global contribution. The initiative included plans to generate 50% of its energy from renewables by 2030. The geographical location of Saudi Arabia makes it among the best countries in terms of solar irradiation and has good wind resources in many areas across the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia is a wide country and has many remote locations where it is not economically feasible to connect those loads to the national grid. With the improvement of battery innovation and reduction in cost, different renewable technologies (primarily wind and solar) can be integrated to meet the need for energy in a more effective and cost-effective way. Saudi Arabia is famous for high solar irradiations in which solar power generation can extend up to six (6) hours per day (25% capacity factor) in some locations. However, the net present value (NPV) falls down to negative in some locations due to distance and high installation costs. Wind generation in Saudi Arabia is a promising technology. Hybrid renewable generation will increase the net present value and lower the payback time due to additional energy generated by wind. The infrastructure of the power system can be capitalized to contain solar generation and wind generation feeding the inverter, controller, and load. Storage systems can be added to support the hours that have an absence of wind or solar energy. Also, the smart controller that can help integrate various renewable technologies primarily wind and solar, to meet demand considering load characteristics. It could be scalable for grid or off-grid applications. The objective of this paper is to study the feasibility of introducing a hybrid renewable system in remote locations and the concept for the development of a smart controller.

Keywords: battery storage systems, hybrid power generation, solar energy, wind energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 177