Search results for: random number

Authors: Sonal Budhiraja, Biswabrata Pradhan

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This work considers statistical inference based on progressive Type-I interval censored data with random removal. The scheme of progressive Type-I interval censoring with random removal can be described as follows. Suppose n identical items are placed on a test at time T0 = 0 under k pre-fixed inspection times at pre-specified times T1 < T2 < . . . < Tk, where Tk is the scheduled termination time of the experiment. At inspection time Ti, Ri of the remaining surviving units Si, are randomly removed from the experiment. The removal follows a binomial distribution with parameters Si and pi for i = 1, . . . , k, with pk = 1. In this censoring scheme, the number of failures in different inspection intervals and the number of randomly removed items at pre-specified inspection times are observed. Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are established under some regularity conditions. A β-content γ-level tolerance interval (TI) is determined for two parameters Weibull lifetime model using the asymptotic properties of MLEs. The minimum sample size required to achieve the desired β-content γ-level TI is determined. The performance of the MLEs and TI is studied via simulation.

Keywords: asymptotic normality, consistency, regularity conditions, simulation study, tolerance interval

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Authors: Carlos Vera, Tetyana Baydyk, Ernst Kussul, Graciela Velasco, Miguel Aparicio

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This article describes the Random Subspace Neural Classifier (RSC) for the recognition of meteors in the night sky. We used images of meteors entering the atmosphere at night between 8:00 p.m.-5: 00 a.m. The objective of this project is to classify meteor and star images (with stars as the image background). The monitoring of the sky and the classification of meteors are made for future applications by scientists. The image database was collected from different websites. We worked with RGB-type images with dimensions of 220x220 pixels stored in the BitMap Protocol (BMP) format. Subsequent window scanning and processing were carried out for each image. The scan window where the characteristics were extracted had the size of 20x20 pixels with a scanning step size of 10 pixels. Brightness, contrast and contour orientation histograms were used as inputs for the RSC. The RSC worked with two classes and classified into: 1) with meteors and 2) without meteors. Different tests were carried out by varying the number of training cycles and the number of images for training and recognition. The percentage error for the neural classifier was calculated. The results show a good RSC classifier response with 89% correct recognition. The results of these experiments are presented and discussed.

Keywords: contour orientation histogram, meteors, night sky, RSC neural classifier, stars

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Authors: Y. Wang, S. Zhang, X. Chen

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The longitudinal compressive strength of fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) possess a large stochastic variability, which limits efficient application of composite structures. This study aims to address how the random fibre packing affects the uncertainty of FRP compressive strength. An novel approach is proposed to generate random fibre packing status by a combination of Latin hypercube sampling and random sequential expansion. 3D nonlinear finite element model is built which incorporates both the matrix plasticity and fibre geometrical instability. The matrix is modeled by isotropic ideal elasto-plastic solid elements, and the fibres are modeled by linear-elastic rebar elements. Composite with a series of different nominal fibre volume fractions are studied. Premature fibre waviness at different magnitude and direction is introduced in the finite element model. Compressive tests on uni-directional CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced plastic) are conducted following the ASTM D6641. By a comparison of 3D FE models and compressive tests, it is clearly shown that the stochastic variation of compressive strength is partly caused by the random fibre packing, and normal or lognormal distribution tends to be a good fit the probabilistic compressive strength. Furthermore, it is also observed that different random fibre packing could trigger two different fibre micro-buckling modes while subjected to longitudinal compression: out-of-plane buckling and twisted buckling. The out-of-plane buckling mode results much larger compressive strength, and this is the major reason why the random fibre packing results a large uncertainty in the FRP compressive strength. This study would contribute to new approaches to the quality control of FRP considering higher compressive strength or lower uncertainty.

Keywords: compressive strength, FRP, micro-buckling, random fibre packing

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Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

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Regional planning in health has gained speed for developing countries in recent years. In Turkey, 89 different Public Hospital Unions (PHUs) were conducted based on provincial levels. In this study technical efficiencies of 89 PHUs were examined by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and machine learning techniques by dividing them into two clusters in terms of similarities of input and output indicators. Number of beds, physicians and nurses determined as input variables and number of outpatients, inpatients and surgical operations determined as output indicators. Before performing DEA, PHUs were grouped into two clusters. It is seen that the first cluster represents PHUs which have higher population, demand and service density than the others. The difference between clusters was statistically significant in terms of all study variables (p ˂ 0.001). After clustering, DEA was performed for general and for two clusters separately. It was found that 11% of PHUs were efficient in general, additionally 21% and 17% of them were efficient for the first and second clusters respectively. It is seen that PHUs, which are representing urban parts of the country and have higher population and service density, are more efficient than others. Random forest decision tree graph shows that number of inpatients is a determinative factor of efficiency of PHUs, which is a measure of service density. It is advisable for public health policy makers to use statistical learning methods in resource planning decisions to improve efficiency in health care.

Keywords: public hospital unions, efficiency, data envelopment analysis, random forest

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Authors: Gajendra Kumar Mourya, Dinesh Bhatia, Akash Handique, Sunita Warjri, Syed Achaab Amir

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Nowadays, Medical imaging has become an integral part of modern healthcare. Abdominal CT images are an invaluable mean for abdominal organ investigation and have been widely studied in the recent years. Diagnosis of liver pathologies is one of the major areas of current interests in the field of medical image processing and is still an open problem. To deeply study and diagnose the liver, segmentation of liver is done to identify which part of the liver is mostly affected. Manual segmentation of the liver in CT images is time-consuming and suffers from inter- and intra-observer differences. However, automatic or semi-automatic computer aided segmentation of the Liver is a challenging task due to inter-patient Liver shape and size variability. In this paper, we present a technique for automatic segmenting the liver from CT images using Random Forest Classifier. Random forests or random decision forests are an ensemble learning method for classification that operate by constructing a multitude of decision trees at training time and outputting the class that is the mode of the classes of the individual trees. After comparing with various other techniques, it was found that Random Forest Classifier provide a better segmentation results with respect to accuracy and speed. We have done the validation of our results using various techniques and it shows above 89% accuracy in all the cases.

Keywords: CT images, image validation, random forest, segmentation

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

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Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: border of the Universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps

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Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari

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In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.

Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys

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Authors: Nelson Bii, Christopher Ouma, John Odhiambo

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Non-response is a potential source of errors in sample surveys. It introduces bias and large variance in the estimation of finite population parameters. Regression models have been recognized as one of the techniques of reducing bias and variance due to random non-response using auxiliary data. In this study, it is assumed that random non-response occurs in the survey variable in the second stage of cluster sampling, assuming full auxiliary information is available throughout. Auxiliary information is used at the estimation stage via a regression model to address the problem of random non-response. In particular, the auxiliary information is used via an improved Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression technique to compensate for random non-response. The asymptotic bias and mean squared error of the estimator proposed are derived. Besides, a simulation study conducted indicates that the proposed estimator has smaller values of the bias and smaller mean squared error values compared to existing estimators of finite population mean. The proposed estimator is also shown to have tighter confidence interval lengths at a 95% coverage rate. The results obtained in this study are useful, for instance, in choosing efficient estimators of the finite population mean in demographic sample surveys.

Keywords: mean squared error, random non-response, two-stage cluster sampling, confidence interval lengths

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Authors: Min Jin Kwon, Seung Won Kim, Eui Yeon Kim, Haeyoung Lee

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Numerous anonymous chat apps that help people to connect with random strangers have been released in South Korea. However, they become a serious problem for young people since young people often use them for channels of prostitution or sexual violence. Although ISPs in South Korea are responsible for making inappropriate content inaccessible on their networks, they do not block traffic of random chat apps since 1) the use of random chat apps is entirely legal. 2) it is reported that they use HTTP proxy blocking so that non-HTTP traffic cannot be blocked. In this paper, we propose a service model that can block random chat apps at home routers. A service provider manages a blacklist that contains blocked apps’ information. Home routers that subscribe the service filter the traffic of the apps out using deep packet inspection. We have implemented a prototype of the proposed model, including a centralized server providing the blacklist, a Raspberry Pi-based home router that can filter traffic of the apps out, and an Android app used by the router’s administrator to locally customize the blacklist.

Keywords: deep packet inspection, internet filtering, juvenile protection, technical blocking

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Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

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Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

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Authors: Peter M. Maurer Maurer

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DGL is a context free grammar-based tool for generating random data. Many types of simulator input data require some computation to be placed in the proper format. For example, it might be necessary to generate ordered triples in which the third element is the sum of the first two elements, or it might be necessary to generate random numbers in some sorted order. Although DGL is universal in computational power, generating these types of data is extremely difficult. To overcome this problem, we have enhanced DGL to include features that permit direct computation within the structure of a context free grammar. The features have been implemented as special types of productions, preserving the context free flavor of DGL specifications.

Keywords: DGL, Enhanced Context Free Grammars, Programming Constructs, Random Data Generation

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Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Chia-Jung Chang

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Fuzzy random variables have been introduced as an imprecise concept of numeric values for characterizing the imprecise knowledge. The descriptive parameters can be used to describe the primary features of a set of fuzzy random observations. In fuzzy environments, the expected values are usually represented as fuzzy-valued, interval-valued or numeric-valued descriptive parameters using various metrics. Instead of the concept of area metric that is usually adopted in the relevant studies, the numeric expected value is proposed by the concept of distance metric in this study based on two characters (fuzziness and randomness) of FRVs. Comparing with the existing measures, although the results show that the proposed numeric expected value is same with those using the different metric, if only triangular membership functions are used. However, the proposed approach has the advantages of intuitiveness and computational efficiency, when the membership functions are not triangular types. An example with three datasets is provided for verifying the proposed approach.

Keywords: fuzzy random variables, distance measure, expected value, descriptive parameters

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Authors: Hyeongbok Kim, Lingling Zhao, Xiaohong Su, Junjie Wang

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The Bernoulli filter is a precise Bayesian filter for single target tracking based on the random finite set theory. The standard Bernoulli filter often underestimates the number of targets. This study proposes a Gaussian particle flow (GPF) Bernoulli filter employing particle flow to migrate particles from prior to posterior positions to improve the performance of the standard Bernoulli filter. By employing the particle flow filter, the computational speed of the Bernoulli filters is significantly improved. In addition, the GPF Bernoulli filter provides a more accurate estimation compared with that of the standard Bernoulli filter. Simulation results confirm the improved tracking performance and computational speed in two- and three-dimensional scenarios compared with other algorithms.

Keywords: Bernoulli filter, particle filter, particle flow filter, random finite sets, target tracking

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Authors: Hongmin Deng, Qionghua Wang

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A modified two dimensional (2D) logistic map based on cross feedback control is proposed. This 2D map exhibits more random chaotic dynamical properties than the classic one dimensional (1D) logistic map in the statistical characteristics analysis. So it is utilized as the pseudo-random (PN) sequence generator, where the obtained real-valued PN sequence is quantized at first, then applied to radio frequency identification (RFID) communication system in this paper. This system is experimentally validated on a cortex-M₀ development board, which shows the effectiveness in key generation, the size of key space and security. At last, further cryptanalysis is studied through the test suite in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Keywords: chaos encryption, logistic map, pseudo-random sequence, RFID

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error

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Authors: Halil Ibrahim Demir, Caner Erden, Abdullah Hulusi Kokcam, Mumtaz Ipek

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Process planning, scheduling, and due date assignment are three important manufacturing functions which are studied independently in literature. There are hundreds of works on IPPS and SWDDA problems but a few works on IPPSDDA problem. Integrating these three functions is very crucial due to the high relationship between them. Since the scheduling problem is in the NP-Hard problem class without any integration, an integrated problem is even harder to solve. This study focuses on the integration of these functions. Sum of weighted tardiness, earliness, and due date related costs are used as a penalty function. Random search and hybrid metaheuristics are used to solve the integrated problem. Marginal improvement in random search is very high in the early iterations and reduces enormously in later iterations. At that point directed search contribute to marginal improvement more than random search. In this study, random and genetic search methods are combined to find better solutions. Results show that overall performance becomes better as the integration level increases.

Keywords: process planning, genetic algorithm, hybrid search, random search, weighted due-date assignment, weighted scheduling

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Authors: Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez, William Fernando Oquendo Patino

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In this work, we model a coupled system where we explore the effects of steady and random behavior on a linear system like an extension of the classic Strogatz model. This is exemplified by modeling a couple love dynamics as a linear system of two coupled differential equations and studying its stability for four types of lovers chosen as CC='Cautious- Cautious', OO='Only other feelings', OP='Opposites' and RR='Romeo the Robot'. We explore the effects of, first, introducing saturation, and second, adding a random variation to one of the CC-type lover, which will shape his character by trying to model how its variability influences the dynamics between love and hate in couple in a long run relationship. This work could also be useful to model other kind of systems where interactions can be modeled as linear systems with external or internal random influence. We found the final results are not easy to predict and a strong dependence on initial conditions appear, which a signature of chaos.

Keywords: differential equations, dynamical systems, linear system, love dynamics

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Authors: Min Hae Song, Jooyong Park

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Even though assessment using information and communication technology will most likely lead the future of educational assessment, there is little research on this topic. Computerized assessment will not only cut costs but also measure students' performance in ways not possible before. In this context, this study introduces a tool which can overcome the problems of multiple choice tests. Multiple-choice tests (MC) are efficient in automatic grading, however structural problems of multiple-choice tests allow students to find the correct answer from options even though they do not know the answer. A computerized modified multiple-choice testing system (CMMT) was developed using the interactivity of computers, that presents questions first, and options later for a short time when the student requests for them. This study was conducted to find out whether penalizing for wrong answers in CMMT could lower random guessing. In this study, we checked whether students knew the answers by having them respond to the short-answer tests before choosing the given options in CMMT or MC format. Ninety-four students were tested with the directions that they will be penalized for wrong answers, but not for no response. There were 4 experimental conditions: two conditions of high or low percentage of penalizing, each in traditional multiple-choice or CMMT format. In the low penalty condition, the penalty rate was the probability of getting the correct answer by random guessing. In the high penalty condition, students were penalized at twice the percentage of the low penalty condition. The results showed that the number of no response was significantly higher for the CMMT format and the number of random guesses was significantly lower for the CMMT format. There were no significant between the two penalty conditions. This result may be due to the fact that the actual score difference between the two conditions was too small. In the discussion, the possibility of applying CMMT format tests while penalizing wrong answers in actual testing settings was addressed.

Keywords: computerized modified multiple choice test format, multiple-choice test format, penalizing, test format

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Authors: Mohammadamin Abbasnejad

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The analysis of expression and facial Action Units (AUs) detection are very important tasks in fields of computer vision and Human Computer Interaction (HCI) due to the wide range of applications in human life. Many works have been done during the past few years which has their own advantages and disadvantages. In this work, we present a new model based on Gaussian Conditional Random Field. We solve our objective problem using ADMM and we show how well the proposed model works. We train and test our work on two facial expression datasets, CK+, and RU-FACS. Experimental evaluation shows that our proposed approach outperform state of the art expression recognition.

Keywords: Gaussian Conditional Random Field, ADMM, convergence, gradient descent

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Marlen Acosta Alamo, Lisa Manne, Richard Veit

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Habitat loss due to land use change is one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. This form of habitat loss is a non-random phenomenon since the same environmental factors that make an area suitable for supporting high local biodiversity overlap with those that make it attractive for urban development. We aimed to compare the effect of two non-random habitat loss predictors on the richness, abundance, and rarity of nature-affiliated and human-affiliated North American breeding birds. For each group of birds, we simulated the non-random habitat loss using two predictors: the House Price Index as a measure of the attractiveness of an area for humans and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy for primary productivity. We compared the results of the two non-random simulation sets and one set of random habitat loss simulations using an analysis of variance and followed up with a Tukey-Kramer test when appropriate. The attractiveness of an area for humans predicted estimates of richness loss and increase of rarity higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for nature-affiliated and human-affiliated birds. For example, at 50% of habitat loss, the attractiveness of an area for humans produced estimates of richness at least 5% lower and of a rarity at least 40% higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for both groups of birds. Only for the species abundance of nature-affiliated birds, the attractiveness of an area for humans did not outperform primary productivity as a predictor of biodiversity following habitat loss. We demonstrated the value of the House Price Index, which can be used in conservation assessments as an index of the risks of habitat loss for natural communities. Thus, our results have relevant implications for sustainable urban land-use planning practices and can guide stakeholders and developers in their efforts to conserve local biodiversity.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, bird biodiversity, house price index, non-random habitat loss

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Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

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HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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Authors: Kelechi E. Ezeji

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The inclusion of relevant content in curricula of architecture schools is vital for attainment of Computer Aided Design (CAD) proficiency by graduates. Implementing this content involves, among other variables, the presence of competent tutors. Consequently, this study sought to investigate the importance of personnel recruitment for inclusion of content vital to the implementation of CAD in the curriculum for architecture education. This was with a view to developing a framework for appropriate implementation of CAD curriculum. It was focused on departments of architecture in universities in south-east Nigeria which have been accredited by National Universities Commission. Survey research design was employed. Data were obtained from sources within the study area using questionnaires, personal interviews, physical observation/enumeration and examination of institutional documents. A multi-stage stratified random sampling method was adopted. The first stage of stratification involved random sampling by balloting of the departments. The second stage involved obtaining respondents’ population from the number of staff and students of sample population. Chi Square analysis tool for nominal variables and Pearson’s product moment correlation test for interval variables were used for data analysis. With ρ < 0.5, the study found significant correlation between the number of CAD literate academic staff and use of CAD in design studio/assignments; that increase in the overall number of teaching staff significantly affected total CAD credit units in the curriculum of the department. The implications of these findings were that for successful implementation leading to attainment of CAD proficiency to occur, CAD-literacy should be a factor in the recruitment of staff and a policy of in-house training should be pursued.

Keywords: computer-aided design, education, personnel recruitment, curriculum

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Authors: Miral Selim, May Haggag, Ibrahim Abotaleb

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The aging of transportation infrastructure presents significant challenges, particularly concerning the monitoring and maintenance of bridges. This study investigates the application of Random Forest algorithms for predictive modeling of bridge conditions, utilizing data from the US National Bridge Inventory (NBI). The research is significant as it aims to improve bridge management through data-driven insights that can enhance maintenance strategies and contribute to overall safety. Random Forest is chosen for its robustness, ability to handle complex, non-linear relationships among variables, and its effectiveness in feature importance evaluation. The study begins with comprehensive data collection and cleaning, followed by the identification of key variables influencing bridge condition ratings, including age, construction materials, environmental factors, and maintenance history. Random Forest is utilized to examine the relationships between these variables and the predicted bridge conditions. The dataset is divided into training and testing subsets to evaluate the model's performance. The findings demonstrate that the Random Forest model effectively enhances the understanding of factors affecting bridge conditions. By identifying bridges at greater risk of deterioration, the model facilitates proactive maintenance strategies, which can help avoid costly repairs and minimize service disruptions. Additionally, this research underscores the value of data-driven decision-making, enabling better resource allocation to prioritize maintenance efforts where they are most necessary. In summary, this study highlights the efficiency and applicability of Random Forest in predictive modeling for bridge management. Ultimately, these findings pave the way for more resilient and proactive management of bridge systems, ensuring their longevity and reliability for future use.

Keywords: data analysis, random forest, predictive modeling, bridge management

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Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

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This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes; it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to affect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, long short-term memory network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares

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Authors: Samira Cherid, Samir Bentata, F. Zahira Meghoufel, Sabria Terkhi, Yamina Sefir, Fatima Bendahma, Bouabdellah Bouadjemi, Ali Z. Itouni

Abstract:

In this work, we examined the propagation of light in one-dimensional systems is examined by means of the random dimer model. The introduction of defect elements, randomly in the studied system, breaks down the Anderson localization and provides a set of propagating delocalized modes at the corresponding conventional dimer resonances. However, tuning suitably the defect dimer resonance on the host ones (or vice versa), the transmission magnitudes can be enhanced providing the optimized ballistic transmission regime as an average response. Hence, ballistic optical filters can be conceived at desired wavelengths.

Keywords: photonic crystals, random dimer model, ballistic resonance, localization and transmission

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

Abstract:

Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Sun Zhe, Ruggero Micheletto

Abstract:

As discussed extensively in many studies, noise in neural networks have an important role in the functioning and time evolution of the system. The mechanism by which noise induce stochastic resonance enhancing and influencing certain operations is not clarified nor is the mechanism of information storage and coding. With the present research we want to study the role of noise, especially focusing on the frequency peaks in a three variable Hindmarsh−Rose Small−World network. We investigated the behaviour of the network to external noises. We demonstrate that a variation of signal to noise ratio of about 10 dB induces an increase in membrane potential signal of about 15%, averaged over the whole network. We also considered the integral of the whole membrane potential as a paradigm of internal noise, the one generated by the brain network. We showed that this internal noise is attenuated with the size of the network or with the number of random connections. By means of Fourier analysis we found that it has distinct peaks of frequencies, moreover, we showed that increasing the size of the network introducing more neurons, reduced the maximum frequencies generated by the network, whereas the increase in the number of random connections (determined by the small-world probability p) led to a trend toward higher frequencies. This study may give clues on how networks utilize noise to alter the collective behaviour of the system in their operations.

Keywords: neural networks, stochastic processes, small-world networks, discrete Fourier analysis

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