Search results for: structural structural equation modeling (SEM)

Authors: Şenay Güngör, Emre Elbaşi, Beyda Sadikoğlu, Utku Eren Bağci, Ömer Uzunel

Abstract:

One of the first places that comes to mind when it comes to tourism in Turkey is the Cappadocia Region. Due to its rich geological and geomorphological heritage, Cappadocia is one of the most visited destinations in the world. In fact, in the first half of 2023, the number of international tourists visiting Cappadocia exceeded 2 million. Considering that the economy of the Cappadocia region is largely based on tourism, it is understood that the quality and technology integration levels of the touristic services offered in the region are of great importance. In this context; as a result of the observations made in Kızılçukur, Meskendir, Güllüdere 1 and Güllüdere 2 valleys, where the important hiking routes of the Cappadocia Region are located, it has been observed that the digital level of the routes is insufficient. It has been observed that the telephone networks in the area are very low or have completely lost their signal strength. In addition, it was determined that the materials such as maps and brochures used by tourism agencies to introduce the valleys are simple and incomplete. It is thought that this situation negatively affects the tourists' orientation and touristic experience in the field. Eliminating these deficiencies identified in the field, improving the digital level of the above-mentioned hiking routes and increasing the added value in destinations are among the main objectives of our study. Within the scope of the study, a mobile application that can work both online and offline on hiking routes has been prepared. 3D modeling of Kızılçukur, Meskendir, Güllüdere 1 and Güllüdere 2 valleys were made using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). In addition, a website has been created to enable tourists to easily access all the above-mentioned information, visuals and technological applications related to the routes. As it is known, the effective use of information and communication technologies in touristic regions not only increases the satisfaction levels of tourists, but also positively affects the attraction of qualified tourists to the region. When the tangible and intangible outputs of this study are evaluated, it is thought that it will serve the social and economic development of the region and set an example for the digital transformation of other routes in the region.

Keywords: nevşehir, cappadocia, cappadocia valleys, trekking route

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Mustapha Ouardouz, Mina Amharref, Abdessamed Bernoussi

Abstract:

The future energy, for limited energy resources countries, goes through renewable energies (solar, wind etc.). The renewable energies constitute a major component of the energy strategy to cover a substantial part of the growing needs and contribute to environmental protection by replacing fossil fuels. Indeed, sustainable development involves the promotion of renewable energy and the preservation of the environment by the use of clean energy technologies to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and reducing the pressure exerted on the forest cover. So the impact studies, of the energy use on the environment and farm-related risks are necessary. For that, a global approach integrating all the various sectors involved in such project seems to be the best approach. In this paper we present an approach based on the multi criteria analysis and the realization of one pilot to achieve the development of an innovative geo-intelligent environmental platform. An implementation of this platform will collect, process, analyze and manage environmental data in connection with the nature of used energy in the studied region. As an application we consider a region in the north of Morocco characterized by intense agricultural and industrials activities and using diverse renewable energy. The strategic goals of this platform are; the decision support for better governance, improving the responsiveness of public and private companies connected by providing them in real time with reliable data, modeling and simulation possibilities of energy scenarios, the identification of socio-technical solutions to introduce renewable energies and estimate technical and implantable potential by socio-economic analyzes and the assessment of infrastructure for the region and the communities, the preservation and enhancement of natural resources for better citizenship governance through democratization of access to environmental information, the tool will also perform simulations integrating environmental impacts of natural disasters, particularly those linked to climate change. Indeed extreme cases such as floods, droughts and storms will be no longer rare and therefore should be integrated into such projects.

Keywords: renewable energies, decision aided tool, environment, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 459

Authors: Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed, Junaid Saghir Siddiqi, Sabah Quaiser

Abstract:

Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public health. The increasing incidence of dengue incidence is now a priority health issue and become a health burden of Pakistan. In this study it has been investigated that spatial pattern of environment causes the emergence or increasing rate of dengue fever incidence that effects the population and its health. The climatic or environmental structure data and the Dengue Fever (DF) data was processed by coding, editing, tabulating, recoding, restructuring in terms of re-tabulating was carried out, and finally applying different statistical methods, techniques, and procedures for the evaluation. Five climatic variables which we have studied are precipitation (P), Maximum temperature (Mx), Minimum temperature (Mn), Humidity (H) and Wind speed (W) collected from 1980-2012. The dengue cases in Karachi from 2010 to 2012 are reported on weekly basis. Principal component analysis is applied to explore the climatic variables and/or the climatic (structure) which may influence in the increase or decrease in the number of dengue fever cases in Karachi. PC1 for all the period is General atmospheric condition. PC2 for dengue period is contrast between precipitation and wind speed. PC3 is the weighted difference between maximum temperature and wind speed. PC4 for dengue period contrast between maximum and wind speed. Negative binomial and Poisson regression model are used to correlate the dengue fever incidence to climatic variable and principal component score. Relative humidity is estimated to positively influence on the chances of dengue occurrence by 1.71% times. Maximum temperature positively influence on the chances dengue occurrence by 19.48% times. Minimum temperature affects positively on the chances of dengue occurrence by 11.51% times. Wind speed is effecting negatively on the weekly occurrence of dengue fever by 7.41% times.

Keywords: principal component analysis, dengue fever, negative binomial regression model, poisson regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Şenay Güngör, Emre Elbaşi, Beyda Sadikğlu, Utku Eren Bağci, Ömer Uzunel

Abstract:

One of the first places that comes to mind when it comes to tourism in Turkey is the Cappadocia Region. Due to its rich geological and geomorphological heritage, Cappadocia is one of the most visited destinations in the world. In fact, in the first half of 2023, the number of international tourists visiting Cappadocia exceeded 2 million. Considering that the economy of the Cappadocia region is largely based on tourism, it is understood that the quality and technology integration levels of the touristic services offered in the region are of great importance. In this context; as a result of the observations made in Kızılçukur, Meskendir, Güllüdere 1 and Güllüdere 2 valleys, where the important hiking routes of the Cappadocia Region are located, it has been observed that the digital level of the routes is insufficient. It has been observed that the telephone networks in the area are very low or have completely lost their signal strength. In addition, it was determined that the materials such as maps and brochures used by tourism agencies to introduce the valleys are simple and incomplete. It is thought that this situation negatively affects the tourists' orientation and touristic experience in the field. Eliminating these deficiencies identified in the field, improving the digital level of the above-mentioned hiking routes and increasing the added value in destinations are among the main objectives of our study. Within the scope of the study, a mobile application that can work both online and offline on hiking routes has been prepared. 3D modeling of Kızılçukur, Meskendir, Güllüdere 1 and Güllüdere 2 valleys were made using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). In addition, a website has been created to enable tourists to easily access all the above-mentioned information, visuals and technological applications related to the routes. As it is known, the effective use of information and communication technologies in touristic regions not only increases the satisfaction levels of tourists, but also positively affects the attraction of qualified tourists to the region. When the tangible and intangible outputs of this study are evaluated, it is thought that it will serve the social and economic development of the region and set an example for the digital transformation of other routes in the region.

Keywords: nevşehir, cappadocia, cappadocia valleys, tourism route

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Aziza S. Al Adhoobi, Amna Al Ruheili, Saud M. Al Jufaili

Abstract:

This study investigates the potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of two Aphaniops species (Teleostei: Aphaniidae) found in the Oman Mountains and the Southwestern Arabian Coast. Aphaniops kruppi, an endemic species, is found in various water bodies such as wadis, springs, aflaj, spring-fed streams, and some coastal backwaters. Aphaniops stoliczkanus, on the other hand, inhabits brackish and freshwater habitats, particularly in the lower parts of wadies and aflaj, and exhibits euryhaline characteristics. Using Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) in conjunction with ArcGIS (10.8.2) and CHELSA bioclimatic variables, topographic indices, and other pertinent environmental factors, the study modeled the potential impacts of climate change based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 7.0, 8.5) for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The model demonstrated exceptional predictive accuracy, achieving AUC values of 0.992 for A. kruppi and 0.983 for A. stoliczkanus. For A. kruppi, the most influential variables were the mean monthly climate moisture index (Cmi_m), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and the sediment transport index (STI), accounting for 39.9%, 18.3%, and 8.4%, respectively. As for A. stoliczkanus, the key variables were the sediment transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), contributing 31%, 20.2%, and 13.3%, respectively. A. kruppi showed an increase in habitat suitability, especially in low and medium suitability areas. By 2071-2100, high suitability areas increased slightly by 0.05% under RCP 2.6, but declined by -0.02% and -0.04% under RCP 7.0 and 8.5, respectively. A. stoliczkanus exhibited a broader range of responses. Under RCP 2.6, all suitability categories increased by 2071-2100, with high suitability areas increasing by 0.01%. However, low and medium suitability areas showed mixed trends under RCP 7.0 and 8.5, with declines of -0.17% and -0.16%, respectively. The study highlights that climatic and topographical factors significantly influence the habitat suitability of Aphaniops species in Oman. Therefore, species-specific conservation strategies are crucial to address the impacts of climate change.

Keywords: Aphaniops kruppi, Aphaniops stoliczkanus, Climate change, Habitat suitability, MaxEnt

Procedia PDF Downloads 17

Authors: Breanna Macumber, Victor A. Huayamave, Emir A. Vela, Wangdo Kim, Tamara T. Chamber, Esteban Centeno

Abstract:

Spina bifida is a type of neural tube defect that affects the nervous system and can lead to problems such as total leg paralysis. Treatment requires physical therapy and rehabilitation. Robotic exoskeletons have been used for rehabilitation to train muscle movement and assist in injury recovery; however, current models focus on the adult populations and not on the infant population. The proposed framework aims to couple a musculoskeletal infant model with a robotic exoskeleton using vacuum-powered artificial muscles to provide rehabilitation to infants affected by spina bifida. The study that drove the input values for the robotic exoskeleton used motion capture technology to collect data from the spontaneous kicking movement of a 2.4-month-old infant lying supine. OpenSim was used to develop the musculoskeletal model, and Inverse kinematics was used to estimate hip joint angles. A total of 4 kicks (A, B, C, D) were selected, and the selection was based on range, transient response, and stable response. Kicks had at least 5° of range of motion with a smooth transient response and a stable period. The robotic exoskeleton used a Vacuum-Powered Artificial Muscle (VPAM) the structure comprised of cells that were clipped in a collapsed state and unclipped when desired to simulate infant’s age. The artificial muscle works with vacuum pressure. When air is removed, the muscle contracts and when air is added, the muscle relaxes. Bench testing was performed using a 6-month-old infant mannequin. The previously developed exoskeleton worked really well with controlled ranges of motion and frequencies, which are typical of rehabilitation protocols for infants suffering with spina bifida. However, the random kicking motion in this study contained high frequency kicks and was not able to accurately replicate all the investigated kicks. Kick 'A' had a greater error when compared to the other kicks. This study has the potential to advance the infant rehabilitation field.

Keywords: musculoskeletal modeling, soft robotics, rehabilitation, pediatrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Shende Suraj Balu, A. B. Deoghare, K. M. Pandey

Abstract:

The human middle ear (ME) is a delicate and vital organ. It has a complex structure that performs various functions such as receiving sound pressure and producing vibrations of eardrum and propagating it to inner ear. It consists of Tympanic Membrane (TM), three auditory ossicles, various ligament structures and muscles. Incidents such as traumata, infections, ossification of ossicular structures and other pathologies may damage the ME organs. The conditions can be surgically treated by employing prosthesis. However, the suitability of the prosthesis needs to be examined in advance prior to the surgery. Few decades ago, this issue was addressed and analyzed by developing an equivalent representation either in the form of spring mass system, electrical system using R-L-C circuit or developing an approximated CAD model. But, nowadays a three-dimensional ME model can be constructed using micro X-Ray Computed Tomography (μCT) scan data. Moreover, the concern about patient specific integrity pertaining to the disease can be examined well in advance. The current research work emphasizes to develop the ME model from the stacks of μCT images which are used as input file to MIMICS Research 19.0 (Materialise Interactive Medical Image Control System) software. A stack of CT images is converted into geometrical surface model to build accurate morphology of ME. The work is further extended to understand the dynamic behaviour of Harmonic response of the stapes footplate and umbo for different sound pressure levels applied at lateral side of eardrum using finite element approach. The pathological condition Cholesteatoma of ME is investigated to obtain peak to peak displacement of stapes footplate and umbo. Apart from this condition, other pathologies, mainly, changes in the stiffness of stapedial ligament, TM thickness and ossicular chain separation and fixation are also explored. The developed model of ME for pathologies is validated by comparing the results available in the literatures and also with the results of a normal ME to calculate the percentage loss in hearing capability.

Keywords: computed tomography (μCT), human middle ear (ME), harmonic response, pathologies, tympanic membrane (TM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Diandra Cristache

Abstract:

The transition of traditional manuscript studies into the digital framework closely affects the methodological premises upon which manuscript descriptions are modeled, created, and questioned for the purpose of research. This paper intends to explore the issue by presenting a methodological investigation into the process of modeling, creating, and questioning manuscript metadata. The investigation is founded on a close observation of the Polonsky Greek Manuscripts Project, a collaboration between the Universities of Cambridge and Heidelberg. More than just providing a realistic ground for methodological exploration, along with a complete metadata set for computational demonstration, the case study also contributes to a broader purpose: outlining general methodological principles for making the most out of manuscript metadata by means of research-oriented digital outputs. The analysis mainly focuses on the scholarly approach to manuscript descriptions, in the specific instance where the act of metadata recording does not have a programmatic research purpose. Close attention is paid to the encounter of 'traditional' practices in manuscript studies with the formal constraints of the digital framework: does the shift in practices (especially from the straight narrative of free writing towards the hierarchical constraints of the TEI encoding model) impact the structure of metadata and its capability to respond specific research questions? It is argued that flexible structure of TEI and traditional approaches to manuscript description lead to a proliferation of markup: does an 'encyclopedic' descriptive approach ensure the epistemological relevance of the digital outputs to metadata? To provide further insight on the computational approach to manuscript metadata, the metadata of the Polonsky project are processed with techniques of distant reading and data networking, thus resulting in a new group of digital outputs (relational graphs, geographic maps). The computational process and the digital outputs are thoroughly illustrated and discussed. Eventually, a retrospective analysis evaluates how the digital outputs respond to the scientific expectations of research, and the other way round, how the requirements of research questions feed back into the creation and enrichment of metadata in an iterative loop.

Keywords: digital manuscript studies, digital outputs to manuscripts metadata, metadata interoperability, methodological issues

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Joelle Fong

Abstract:

Older persons are at greatest risk of becoming frail. As survival to the age of 80 and beyond continues to increase, the health and frailty of older Americans has garnered much recent attention among policy makers and healthcare administrators. This paper examines patterns in old-age frailty within a multistate actuarial model that characterizes the stochastic process of biological ageing. Using aggregate population-level U.S. mortality data, we implement a stochastic aging model to examine cohort trends and gender differences in frailty distributions for older Americans born 1865 – 1894. The stochastic ageing model, which draws from the fields of actuarial science and gerontology, is well-established in the literature. The implications for public health insurance programs are also discussed. Our results suggest that, on average, women tend to be frailer than men at older ages and reveal useful insights about the magnitude of the male-female differential at critical age points. Specifically, we note that the frailty statuses of males and females are actually quite comparable from ages 65 to 80. Beyond age 80, however, the frailty levels start to diverge considerably implying that women are moving quicker into worse states of health than men. Tracking average frailty by gender over 30 successive birth cohorts, we also find that frailty levels for both genders follow a distinct peak-and-trough pattern. For instance, frailty among 85-year old American survivors increased in years 1954-1963, decreased in years 1964-1971, and again started to increase in years 1972-1979. A number of factors may have accounted for these cohort differences including differences in cohort life histories, differences in disease prevalence, differences in lifestyle and behavior, differential access to medical advances, as well as changes in environmental risk factors over time. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings on spending for long-term care programs within the broader health insurance system.

Keywords: actuarial modeling, cohort analysis, frail elderly, health

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Breanna Macumber, Victor A. Huayamave, Emir A. Vela, Wangdo Kim, Tamara T. Chamber, Esteban Centeno

Abstract:

Spina bifida is a type of neural tube defect that affects the nervous system and can lead to problems such as total leg paralysis. Treatment requires physical therapy and rehabilitation. Robotic exoskeletons have been used for rehabilitation to train muscle movement and assist in injury recovery; however, current models focus on the adult populations and not on the infant population. The proposed framework aims to couple a musculoskeletal infant model with a robotic exoskeleton using vacuum-powered artificial muscles to provide rehabilitation to infants affected by spina bifida. The study that drove the input values for the robotic exoskeleton used motion capture technology to collect data from the spontaneous kicking movement of a 2.4-month-old infant lying supine. OpenSim was used to develop the musculoskeletal model, and Inverse kinematics was used to estimate hip joint angles. A total of 4 kicks (A, B, C, D) were selected, and the selection was based on range, transient response, and stable response. Kicks had at least 5° of range of motion with a smooth transient response and a stable period. The robotic exoskeleton used a Vacuum-Powered Artificial Muscle (VPAM) the structure comprised of cells that were clipped in a collapsed state and unclipped when desired to simulate infant’s age. The artificial muscle works with vacuum pressure. When air is removed, the muscle contracts and when air is added, the muscle relaxes. Bench testing was performed using a 6-month-old infant mannequin. The previously developed exoskeleton worked really well with controlled ranges of motion and frequencies, which are typical of rehabilitation protocols for infants suffering with spina bifida. However, the random kicking motion in this study contained high frequency kicks and was not able to accurately replicate all the investigated kicks. Kick 'A' had a greater error when compared to the other kicks. This study has the potential to advance the infant rehabilitation field.

Keywords: musculoskeletal modeling, soft robotics, rehabilitation, pediatrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Maor Farid, Oleg Gendelman

Abstract:

Equivalent mechanical model of liquid sloshing in partially-filled cylindrical vessel is treated in the cases of free oscillations and of horizontal base excitation. The model is designed to cover both the linear and essentially nonlinear sloshing regimes. The latter fluid behaviour might involve hydraulic impacts interacting with the inner walls of the tank. These impulsive interactions are often modeled by high-power potential and dissipation functions. For the sake of analytical description, we use the traditional approach by modeling the impacts with velocity-dependent restitution coefficient. This modelling is similar to vibro-impact nonlinear energy sink (VI NES) which was recently explored for its vibration mitigation performances and nonlinear response regimes. Steady-state periodic regimes and chaotic strongly modulated responses (CSMR) are detected. Those dynamical regimes were described by the system's slow motion on the slow invariant manifold (SIM). There is a good agreement between the analytical results and numerical simulations. Subsequently, Finite-Element (FE) method is used to determine and verify the model parameters and to identify dominant dynamical regimes, natural modes and frequencies. The tank failure modes are identified and critical locations are identified. Mathematical relation is found between degrees-of-freedom (DOFs) motion and the mechanical stress applied in the tank critical section. This is the prior attempt to take under consideration large-amplitude nonlinear sloshing and tank structure elasticity effects for design, regulation definition and resistance analysis purposes. Both linear (tuned mass damper, TMD) and nonlinear (nonlinear energy sink, NES) passive energy absorbers contribution to the overall system mitigation is firstly examined, in terms of both stress reduction and time for vibration decay.

Keywords: nonlinear energy sink (NES), reduced-order modelling, liquid sloshing, vibration mitigation, vibro-impact dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Jonghyuk Yoon, Jongil Yoon, Seong-Gyo Chung

Abstract:

In many kinds of industries which usually need a large amount of power, an axial piston pump has been widely used as a main power source of a hydraulic system. The axial piston pump is a type of positive displacement pump that has several pistons in a circular array within a cylinder block. As the cylinder block and pistons start to rotate, since the exposed ends of the pistons are constrained to follow the surface of the swashed plate, the pistons are driven to reciprocate axially and then a hydraulic power is produced. In the present study, a numerical simulation which has three dimensional full model of the axial piston pump was carried out using a commercial CFD code (Ansys CFX 14.5). In order to take into consideration motion of compression and extension by the reciprocating pistons, the moving boundary conditions were applied as a function of the rotation angle to that region. In addition, this pump using hydraulic oil as working fluid is intentionally designed as a small amount of oil leaks out in order to lubricate moving parts. Since leakage could directly affect the pump efficiency, evaluation of effect of oil-leakage is very important. In order to predict the effect of the oil leakage on the pump efficiency, we considered the leakage between piston-shoe and swash-plate by modeling cylindrical shaped-feature at the end of the cylinder. In order to validate the numerical method used in this study, the numerical results of the flow rate at the discharge port are compared with the experimental data, and good agreement between them was shown. Using the validated numerical method, the effect of the discharge pressure was also investigated. The result of the present study can be useful information of small axial piston pump used in many different manufacturing industries. Acknowledgement: This research was financially supported by the “Next-generation construction machinery component specialization complex development program” through the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) and Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology (KIAT).

Keywords: axial piston pump, CFD, discharge pressure, hydraulic system, moving boundary condition, oil leaks

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Minhyuk Heo, Jihwan Yun, Seonghun Park

Abstract:

It has been reported that intervertebral fusion surgery, which removes most of the ligaments and muscles of the spine, increases the degenerative disease in adjacent spinal segments. Therefore, it is required to develop a lumbar interspinous process fixation device that minimizes the risks and side effects from the surgery. The objective of the current study is to design an interspinous process fixation device with simple structures in order to minimize soft tissue removal and operation time during intervertebral fusion surgery. For the design concepts of a lumbar fixation device, the principle of the ratchet was first applied on the joining parts of the device in order to shorten the operation time. The coil spring structure was selected for connecting parts between the spinous processes so that a normal range of motion in spinal segments is preserved and degenerative spinal diseases are not developed in the adjacent spinal segments. The stiffness of the spring was determined not to interrupt the motion of a lumbar spine. The designed value of the spring stiffness allows the upper part of the spring to move ~10° which is higher than the range of flexion and extension for normal lumbar spine (6°-8°), when a moment of 10Nm is applied on the upper face of L1. A finite element (FE) model composed of L1 to L5 lumbar spines was generated to verify the mechanical integrity and the dynamic stability of the designed lumbar fixation device and to further optimize the lumbar fixation device. The FE model generated above produced the same pressure value on intervertebral disc and dynamic behavior as the normal intact model reported in the literature. The consistent results from this comparison validates the accuracy in the modeling of the current FE model. Currently, we are trying to generate an abnormal model with defects in one or more components of the normal FE model above. Then, the mechanical integrity and the dynamic stability of the designed lumbar fixation device will be analyzed after being installed in the abnormal model and then the lumbar fixation device will be further optimized.

Keywords: lumbar interspinous process fixation device, finite element method, lumbar spine, kinematics

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Retang A. Mokua, Julia Glenday, Jacobus M. Nel

Abstract:

Understanding hydrological processes in mountain headwater catchments, such as the Jonkershoek Valley, is crucial for improving the predictive capability of hydrologic modeling in the Cape Fold Mountain region of South Africa, incorporating the influence of the Table Mountain Group fractured rock aquifers. Determining the contributions of various possible surface and subsurface flow pathways in such catchments has been a challenge due to the complex nature of the fractured rock geology, low ionic concentrations, high rainfall, and streamflow variability. The study aimed to describe the mechanisms of streamflow generation during two seasons (dry and wet). In this study, stable isotopes of water (18O and 2H), hydrochemical tracer electrical conductivity (EC), hydrometric data were used to assess the spatial and temporal variation in flow pathways and geographic sources of stream water. Stream water, groundwater, two shallow piezometers, and spring samples were routinely sampled at two adjacent headwater sub-catchments and analyzed for isotopic ratios during baseflow conditions between January 2018 and January 2019. From these results, no significance (p > 0.05) in seasonal variations in isotopic ratios were observed, the stream isotope signatures were consistent throughout the study period. However, significant seasonal and spatial variations in the EC were evident (p < 0.05). The findings suggest that, in the dry season, baseflow generation mechanisms driven by groundwater and interflow as discharge from perennial springs in these catchments are the primary contributors. The wet season flows were attributed to interflow and perennial and ephemeral springs. Furthermore, the observed seasonal variations in EC were indicative of a greater proportion of sub-surface water inputs. With these results, a conceptual model of streamflow generation processes for the two seasons was constructed.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, Jonkershoek valley, stable isotopes, table mountain group

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Esam Jassim

Abstract:

Industries using conventional fossil fuels have an interest in better understanding the mechanism of particulate formation during combustion since such is responsible for emission of undesired inorganic elements that directly impact the atmospheric pollution level. Fine and ultrafine particulates have tendency to escape the flue gas cleaning devices to the atmosphere. They also preferentially collect on surfaces in power systems resulting in ascending in corrosion inclination, descending in the heat transfer thermal unit, and severe impact on human health. This adverseness manifests particularly in the regions of world where coal is the dominated source of energy for consumption. This study highlights the behavior of calcium transformation as mineral grains verses organically associated inorganic components during pulverized coal combustion. The influence of existing type of calcium on the coarse, fine and ultrafine mode formation mechanisms is also presented. The impact of two sub-bituminous coals on particle size and calcium composition evolution during combustion is to be assessed. Three mixed blends named Blends 1, 2, and 3 are selected according to the ration of coal A to coal B by weight. Calcium percentage in original coal increases as going from Blend 1 to 3. A mathematical model and a new approach of describing constituent distribution are proposed. Analysis of experiments of calcium distribution in ash is also modeled using Poisson distribution. A novel parameter, called elemental index λ, is introduced as a measuring factor of element distribution. Results show that calcium in ash that originally in coal as mineral grains has index of 17, whereas organically associated calcium transformed to fly ash shown to be best described when elemental index λ is 7. As an alkaline-earth element, calcium is considered the fundamental element responsible for boiler deficiency since it is the major player in the mechanism of ash slagging process. The mechanism of particle size distribution and mineral species of ash particles are presented using CCSEM and size-segregated ash characteristics. Conclusions are drawn from the analysis of pulverized coal ash generated from a utility-scale boiler.

Keywords: coal combustion, inorganic element, calcium evolution, fluid dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Yuri Boiko, Iluju Kiringa, Tet Yeap

Abstract:

Current drainage attack suggested previously is further studied in regular settings of closed-loop controlled Brushless DC (BLDC) motor with Kalman filter in the feedback loop. Modeling and simulation experiments are conducted in a Matlab environment, implementing the closed-loop control model of BLDC motor operation in position sensorless mode under Kalman filter drive. The current increase in the motor windings is caused by the controller (p-controller in our case) affected by false data injection of substitution of the angular velocity estimates with distorted values. Operation of multiplication to distortion coefficient, values of which are taken from the distortion function synchronized in its periodicity with the rotor’s position change. A saw function with a triangular tooth shape is studied herewith for the purpose of carrying out the bias injection with current drainage consequences. The specific focus here is on how the asymmetry of the tooth in the saw function affects the flow of current drainage. The purpose is two-fold: (i) to produce and collect the signature of an asymmetric saw in the attack for further pattern recognition process, and (ii) to determine conditions of improving stealthiness of such attack via regulating asymmetry in saw function used. It is found that modification of the symmetry in the saw tooth affects the periodicity of current drainage modulation. Specifically, the modulation frequency of the drained current for a fully asymmetric tooth shape coincides with the saw function modulation frequency itself. Increasing the symmetry parameter for the triangle tooth shape leads to an increase in the modulation frequency for the drained current. Moreover, such frequency reaches the switching frequency of the motor windings for fully symmetric triangular shapes, thus becoming undetectable and improving the stealthiness of the attack. Therefore, the collected signatures of the attack can serve for attack parameter identification via the pattern recognition route.

Keywords: bias injection attack, Kalman filter, BLDC motor, control system, closed loop, P-controller, PID-controller, current drainage, saw-function, asymmetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

Abstract:

Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Kougioumtzis Konstantin, Rylander Pär, Karlsteen Magnus

Abstract:

Ball skills as a subset of fundamental motor skills are predictors for performance in sports. Currently, most tools evaluate ball skills utilizing subjective ratings. The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of a newly developed instrument to objectively measure ball handling skills (BHS-test) utilizing digital instrument. Participants were a convenience sample of 213 adolescents (age M = 17.1 years, SD =3.6; 55% females, 45% males) recruited from upper secondary schools and invited to a sports hall for the assessment. The 8-item instrument incorporated both accuracy-based ball skill tests and repetitive-performance tests with a ball. Testers counted performance manually in the four tests (one throwing and three juggling tasks). Furthermore, assessment was technologically enhanced in the other four tests utilizing a ball machine, a Kinect camera and balls with motion sensors (one balancing and three rolling tasks). 3D printing technology was used to construct equipment, while all results were administered digitally with smart phones/tablets, computers and a specially constructed application to send data to a server. The instrument was deemed reliable (α = .77) and principal component analysis was used in a random subset (53 of the participants). Furthermore, latent variable modeling was employed to confirm the structure with the remaining subset (160 of the participants). The analysis showed good factorial-related validity with one factor explaining 57.90 % of the total variance. Four loadings were larger than .80, two more exceeded .76 and the other two were .65 and .49. The one factor solution was confirmed by a first order model with one general factor and an excellent fit between model and data (χ² = 16.12, DF = 20; RMSEA = .00, CI90 .00–.05; CFI = 1.00; SRMR = .02). The loadings on the general factor ranged between .65 and .83. Our findings indicate good reliability and construct validity for the BHS-test. To develop the instrument further, more studies are needed with various age-groups, e.g. children. We suggest using the BHS-test for diagnostic or assessment purpose for talent development and sports participation interventions that focus on ball games.

Keywords: ball-handling skills, ball-handling ability, technologically-enhanced measurements, assessment

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Authors: Hongtao Zhu, Dezhi Sun

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Nitrogen and phosphorus are essential nutrients for biomass growth. But excessive nitrogen and phosphorus can contribute to accelerated eutrophication of lakes and rivers. Constructed wetland is an efficient and eco-friendly wastewater treatment technology with low operating cost and low-energy consumption. Because of high affinity with ammonium ion, zeolite, as a common substrate, is applied in constructed wetlands worldwide. Another substrate seen commonly for constructed wetlands is steel slag, which has high contents of Ca, Al, or Fe, and possesses a strong affinity with phosphate. Due to the excellent ammonium removal ability of zeolite and phosphate removal ability of steel slag, they were considered to be combined in the substrate bed of a constructed wetland in order to enhance the simultaneous removal efficiencies of nitrogen and phosphorus. In our early tests, zeolite and steel slag were combined with each other in order to simultaneously achieve a high removal efficiency of ammonium-nitrogen and phosphate-phosphorus. However, compared with the results when only zeolite was used, the removal efficiency of ammonia was sharply decreased when zeolite and steel slag were used together. The main objective of this study was to establish an overview of the interaction of steel slag and zeolite on ammonium nitrogen removal. The CaO dissolution from slag, as well as the effects of influencing parameters (i.e. pH and Ca2+ concentration) on the ammonium adsorption onto zeolite, was systematically studied. Modeling results of Ca2+ and OH- release from slag indicated that pseudo-second order reaction had a better fitness than pseudo-first order reaction. Changing pH value from 7 to 12 would result in a drastic reduction of the ammonium adsorption capacity on zeolite, from the peak at pH7. High Ca2+ concentration in solution could also inhibit the adsorption of ammonium onto zeolite. The mechanism for steel slag inhibiting the ammonium adsorption capacity of zeolite includes: on one hand, OH- released from steel slag can react with ammonium ions to produce molecular form ammonia (NH3∙H2O), which would cause the dissociation of NH4+ from zeolite. On the other hand, Ca2+ could replace the NH4+ ions to adhere onto the surface of zeolite. An innovative substrate filling configuration that zeolite and steel slag are placed sequentially was proposed to eliminate the disadvantageous effects of steel slag. Experimental results showed that the novel filling configuration was superior to the other two contrast filling configurations in terms of ammonium removal.

Keywords: ammonium nitrogen, constructed wetlands, steel slag, zeolite

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Dimiter M. Dimitrov, Abdullah Sadaawi

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The National Assessment for Schools (NAFS) in Saudi Arabia consists of standardized tests in Mathematics, Reading, and Science for school grade levels 3, 6, and 9. One main goal is to classify students into four categories of NAFS performance (minimal, basic, proficient, and advanced) by schools and the entire national sample. The NAFS scoring and equating is performed on a bounded scale (D-scale: ranging from 0 to 1) in the framework of the recently developed “D-scoring method of measurement.” The specificity of the NAFS measurement framework and data complexity presented both challenges and opportunities to (a) the estimation of score reliability for schools, (b) setting cut-scores for the classification of students into categories of performance, and (c) generating plausible values for distributions of student performance on the D-scale. The estimation of score reliability at the school level was performed in the framework of generalizability theory (GT), with students “nested” within schools and test items “nested” within test forms. The GT design was executed via a multilevel modeling syntax code in R. Cut-scores (on the D-scale) for the classification of students into performance categories was derived via a recently developed method of standard setting, referred to as “Response Vector for Mastery” (RVM) method. For each school, the classification of students into categories of NAFS performance was based on distributions of plausible values for the students’ scores on NAFS tests by grade level (3, 6, and 9) and subject (Mathematics, Reading, and Science). Plausible values (on the D-scale) for each individual student were generated via random selection from a statistical logit-normal distribution with parameters derived from the student’s D-score and its conditional standard error, SE(D). All procedures related to D-scoring, equating, generating plausible values, and classification of students into performance levels were executed via a computer program in R developed for the purpose of NAFS data analysis.

Keywords: large-scale assessment, reliability, generalizability theory, plausible values

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Authors: Reshan Perera, Sarith Munasinghe, Himali Lakshika, Yasith Perera, Hasitha Walakadawattage, Udayanga Hemapala

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This research presents a reconfigurable architecture for residential microgrid systems utilizing Z-Source Inverter (ZSI) to optimize solar photovoltaic (SPV) system utilization and enhance grid resilience. The proposed system addresses challenges associated with high solar power penetration through various modes, including current control, voltage-frequency control, and reactive power control. It ensures uninterrupted power supply during grid faults, providing flexibility and reliability for grid-connected SPV customers. Challenges and opportunities in reactive power control for microgrids are explored, with simulation results and case studies validating proposed strategies. From a control and power perspective, the ZSI-based inverter enhances safety, reduces failures, and improves power quality compared to traditional inverters. Operating seamlessly in grid-connected and islanded modes guarantees continuous power supply during grid disturbances. Moreover, the research addresses power quality issues in long distribution feeders during off-peak and night-peak hours or fault conditions. Using the Distributed Static Synchronous Compensator (DSTATCOM) for voltage stability, the control objective is nighttime voltage regulation at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC). In this mode, disconnection of PV panels, batteries, and the battery controller allows the ZSI to operate in voltage-regulating mode, with critical loads remaining connected. The study introduces a structured controller for Reactive Power Controlling mode, contributing to a comprehensive and adaptable solution for residential microgrid systems. Mathematical modeling and simulations confirm successful maximum power extraction, controlled voltage, and smooth voltage-frequency regulation.

Keywords: reconfigurable architecture, solar photovoltaic, microgrids, z-source inverter, STATCOM, power quality, battery storage system

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Authors: Goldie Lynn Diaz, Ma. Teresa Tricia G. Bautista, Elisabeth Engeljakob, Mary Glaze Rosal

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Introduction: Residents are expected to convey unfavorable news, discuss prognoses, and relieve suffering, and address do-not-resuscitate orders, yet some report a lack of competence in providing this type of care. Recognizing this need, Family Medicine residency programs are incorporating end-of-life care from symptom and pain control, counseling, and humanistic qualities as core proficiencies in training. Objective: This study determined the competency of Family Medicine Residents from various institutions in Metro Manila on rendering care for the dying. Materials and Methods: Trainees completed a Palliative Care Evaluation tool to assess their degree of confidence in patient and family interactions, patient management, and attitudes towards hospice care. Results: Remarkably, only a small fraction of participants were confident in performing independent management of terminal delirium and dyspnea. Fewer than 30% of residents can do the following without supervision: discuss medication effects and patient wishes after death, coping with pain, vomiting and constipation, and reacting to limited patient decision-making capacity. Half of the respondents had confidence in supporting the patient or family member when they become upset. Majority expressed confidence in many end-of-life care skills if supervision, coaching and consultation will be provided. Most trainees believed that pain medication should be given as needed to terminally ill patients. There was also uncertainty as to the most appropriate person to make end-of-life decisions. These attitudes may be influenced by personal beliefs rooted in cultural upbringing as well as by personal experiences with death in the family, which may also affect their participation and confidence in caring for the dying. Conclusion: Enhancing the quality and quantity of end-of-life care experiences during residency with sufficient supervision and role modeling may lead to knowledge and skill improvement to ensure quality of care. Fostering bedside learning opportunities during residency is an appropriate venue for teaching interventions in end-of-life care education.

Keywords: end of life care, geriatrics, palliative care, residency training skill

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Nelson F. F. Ebecken, Gilberto C. Pereira, Lucio P. de Andrade

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Bays, estuaries and coastal ecosystems are some of the most used and threatened natural systems globally. Its deterioration is due to intense and increasing human activities. This paper aims to monitor the socio-ecological in Brazil, model and simulate it through a multilayer network representing a DPSIR structure (Drivers, Pressures, States-Impacts-Responses) considering the concept of Management based on Ecosystems to support decision-making under the National/State/Municipal Coastal Management policy. This approach considers several interferences and can represent a significant advance in several scientific aspects. The main objective of this paper is the coupling of three different types of complex networks, the first being an ecological network, the second a social network, and the third a network of economic activities, in order to model the marine ecosystem. Multilayer networks comprise two or more "layers", which may represent different types of interactions, different communities, different points in time, and so on. The dependency between layers results from processes that affect the various layers. For example, the dispersion of individuals between two patches affects the network structure of both samples. A multilayer network consists of (i) a set of physical nodes representing entities (e.g., species, people, companies); (ii) a set of layers, which may include multiple layering aspects (e.g., time dependency and multiple types of relationships); (iii) a set of state nodes, each of which corresponds to the manifestation of a given physical node in a layer-specific; and (iv) a set of edges (weighted or not) to connect the state nodes among themselves. The edge set includes the intralayer edges familiar and interlayer ones, which connect state nodes between layers. The applied methodology in an existent case uses the Flow cytometry process and the modeling of ecological relationships (trophic and non-trophic) following fuzzy theory concepts and graph visualization. The identification of subnetworks in the fuzzy graphs is carried out using a specific computational method. This methodology allows considering the influence of different factors and helps their contributions to the decision-making process.

Keywords: marine ecosystems, complex systems, multilayer network, ecosystems management

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Mohammed Eltayeb Salih Elamin

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This study discusses the concept of the artificial heart using engineering concepts, of the fluid mechanics and the characteristics of the non-Newtonian fluid. For the purpose to serve heart patients and improve aspects of their lives and since the Statistics review according to world health organization (WHO) says that heart disease and blood vessels are the first cause of death in the world. Statistics shows that 30% of the death cases in the world by the heart disease, so simply we can consider it as the number one leading cause of death in the entire world is heart failure. And since the heart implantation become a very difficult and not always available, the idea of the artificial heart become very essential. So it’s important that we participate in the developing this idea by searching and finding the weakness point in the earlier designs and hoping for improving it for the best of humanity. In this study a pump was designed in order to pump blood to the human body and taking into account all the factors that allows it to replace the human heart, in order to work at the same characteristics and the efficiency of the human heart. The pump was designed on the idea of the diaphragm pump. Three models of blood obtained from the blood real characteristics and all of these models were simulated in order to study the effect of the pumping work on the fluid. After that, we study the properties of this pump by using Ansys15 software to simulate blood flow inside the pump and the amount of stress that it will go under. The 3D geometries modeling was done using SOLID WORKS and the geometries then imported to Ansys design modeler which is used during the pre-processing procedure. The solver used throughout the study is Ansys FLUENT. This is a tool used to analysis the fluid flow troubles and the general well-known term used for this branch of science is known as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Basically, Design Modeler used during the pre-processing procedure which is a crucial step before the start of the fluid flow problem. Some of the key operations are the geometry creations which specify the domain of the fluid flow problem. Next is mesh generation which means discretization of the domain to solve governing equations at each cell and later, specify the boundary zones to apply boundary conditions for the problem. Finally, the pre–processed work will be saved at the Ansys workbench for future work continuation.

Keywords: Artificial heart, computational fluid dynamic heart chamber, design, pump

Procedia PDF Downloads 459

Authors: A. Soria-Salinas, M.-P. Zorzano, J. Martín-Torres, J. Sánchez-García-Casarrubios, J.-L. Pérez-Díaz, A. Vakkada-Ramachandran

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The current state-of-the-art methods of mass gauging of Electric Propulsion (EP) propellants in microgravity conditions rely on external measurements that are taken at the surface of the tank. The tanks are operated under a constant thermal duty cycle to store the propellant within a pre-defined temperature and pressure range. We demonstrate using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations that the heat-transfer within the pressurized propellant generates temperature and density anisotropies. This challenges the standard mass gauging methods that rely on the use of time changing skin-temperatures and pressures. We observe that the domes of the tanks are prone to be overheated, and that a long time after the heaters of the thermal cycle are switched off, the system reaches a quasi-equilibrium state with a more uniform density. We propose a new gauging method, which we call the Improved PVT method, based on universal physics and thermodynamics principles, existing TRL-9 technology and telemetry data. This method only uses as inputs the temperature and pressure readings of sensors externally attached to the tank. These sensors can operate during the nominal thermal duty cycle. The improved PVT method shows little sensitivity to the pressure sensor drifts which are critical towards the end-of-life of the missions, as well as little sensitivity to systematic temperature errors. The retrieval method has been validated experimentally with CO₂ in gas and fluid state in a chamber that operates up to 82 bar within a nominal thermal cycle of 38 °C to 42 °C. The mass gauging error is shown to be lower than 1% the mass at the beginning of life, assuming an initial tank load at 100 bar. In particular, for a pressure of about 70 bar, just below the critical pressure of CO₂, the error of the mass gauging in gas phase goes down to 0.1% and for 77 bar, just above the critical point, the error of the mass gauging of the liquid phase is 0.6% of initial tank load. This gauging method improves by a factor of 8 the accuracy of the standard PVT retrievals using look-up tables with tabulated data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Keywords: electric propulsion, mass gauging, propellant, PVT, xenon

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: Saeed Farhadypour, Majid Azadi, Habibolla Sayyari, Mahmood Mosavi, Shahram Irani, Aliakbar Bidokhti, Omid Alizadeh Choobari, Ziba Hamidi

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In the recent decades, frequencies of dust events have increased significantly in west and south west of Iran. First, a survey on the dust events during the period (1990-2013) is investigated using historical dust data collected at 6 weather stations scattered over west and south-west of Iran. After statistical analysis of the observational data, one of the most severe dust storm event that occurred in the region from 3rd to 6th July 2009, is selected and analyzed. WRF-Chem model is used to simulate the amount of PM10 and how to transport it to the areas. The initial and lateral boundary conditions for model obtained from GFS data with 0.5°×0.5° spatial resolution. In the simulation, two aerosol schemas (GOCART and MADE/SORGAM) with 3 options (chem_opt=106,300 and 303) were evaluated. Results of the statistical analysis of the historical data showed that south west of Iran has high frequency of dust events, so that Bushehr station has the highest frequency between stations and Urmia station has the lowest frequency. Also in the period of 1990 to 2013, the years 2009 and 1998 with the amounts of 3221 and 100 respectively had the highest and lowest dust events and according to the monthly variation, June and July had the highest frequency of dust events and December had the lowest frequency. Besides, model results showed that the MADE / SORGAM scheme has predicted values and trends of PM10 better than the other schemes and has showed the better performance in comparison with the observations. Finally, distribution of PM10 and the wind surface maps obtained from numerical modeling showed that the formation of dust plums formed in Iraq and Syria and also transportation of them to the West and Southwest of Iran. In addition, comparing the MODIS satellite image acquired on 4th July 2009 with model output at the same time showed the good ability of WRF-Chem in simulating spatial distribution of dust.

Keywords: dust storm, MADE/SORGAM scheme, PM10, WRF-Chem

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Ni'mal Baroya, Andrei Ramani, Irma Prasetyowati

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The access to reproduction health services, including with safe and effective contraception were human rights regardless of social stratum and residence. In addition to individual factors, family and contextual factors were also believed to be the cause in the use of contraceptive methods. This study aimed to assess the determinants of long-term contraceptive methods (LTCM) by considering all the factors at either the individual level or contextual level. Thereby, this study could provide basic information for program development of prevalence enhancement of MKJP in East Java. The research, which used cross-sectional design, utilized Riskesdas 2013 data, particularly in East Java Province for further analysis about multilevel modeling of MKJP application. The sample of this study consisted of 20.601 married women who were not in pregnant that were drawn by using probability sampling following the sampling technique of Riskesdas 2013. Variables in this study were including the independent variables at the individual level that consisted of education, age, occupation, access to family planning services (KB), economic status and residence. As independent variables in district level were the Human Development Index (HDI, henceforth as IPM) in each districts of East Java Province, the ratio of field officers, the ratio of midwives, the ratio of community health centers and the ratio of doctors. As for the dependent variable was the use of Long-Term Contraceptive Method (LTCM or MKJP). The data were analyzed by using chi-square test and Pearson product moment correlation. The multivariable analysis was using multilevel logistic regression with 95% of Confidence Interval (CI) at the significance level of p < 0.05 and 80% of strength test. The results showed a low CPR LTCM was concentrated in districts in Madura Island and the north coast. The women which were 25 to 35 or more than 35 years old, at least high school education, working, and middle-class social status were more likely to use LTCM or MKJP. The IPM and low PLKB ratio had implications for poor CPR LTCM / MKJP.

Keywords: multilevel, long-term contraceptive methods, east java, contextual factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Sungpil Ha, Ju Yong Kang, Sangbaek Park, Seung-Ju Lee, Soo-Won Chae

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The growing number of obese patients in aging societies has led to an increase in the number of patients with knee medial osteoarthritis (OA). Artificial joint insertion is the most common treatment for knee medial OA. Surgery is effective for patients with serious arthritic symptoms, but it is costly and dangerous. It is also inappropriate way to prevent a disease as an early stage. Therefore Non-operative treatments such as toe-in gait are proposed recently. Toe-in gait is one of non-surgical interventions, which restrain the progression of arthritis and relieves pain by reducing knee adduction moment (KAM) to facilitate lateral distribution of load on to knee medial cartilage. Numerous studies have measured KAM in various foot progression angle (FPA), and KAM data could be obtained by motion analysis. However, variations in stress at knee cartilage could not be directly observed or evaluated by these experiments of measuring KAM. Therefore, this study applied motion analysis to major gait points (1st peak, mid –stance, 2nd peak) with regard to FPA, and to evaluate the effects of FPA on the human lower extremity, the finite element (FE) method was employed. Three types of gait analysis (toe-in, toe-out, baseline gait) were performed with markers placed at the lower extremity. Ground reaction forces (GRF) were obtained by the force plates. The forces associated with the major muscles were computed using GRF and marker trajectory data. MRI data provided by the Visible Human Project were used to develop a human lower extremity FE model. FE analyses for three types of gait simulations were performed based on the calculated muscle force and GRF. We observed the maximum stress point during toe-in gait was lower than the other types, by comparing the results of FE analyses at the 1st peak across gait types. This is the same as the trend exhibited by KAM, measured through motion analysis in other papers. This indicates that the progression of knee medial OA could be suppressed by adopting toe-in gait. This study integrated motion analysis with FE analysis. One advantage of this method is that re-modeling is not required even with changes in posture. Therefore another type of gait simulation or various motions of lower extremity can be easily analyzed using this method.

Keywords: finite element analysis, gait analysis, human model, motion capture

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Menna Ewida, Dalal Abou El-Ella, Dina Lasheen, Huessin El-Subbagh

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Introduction: Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor receptor (VEGF) is a signal protein produced by cells that stimulates vasculogenesis to create new blood vessels. VEGF family binds to three trans-membrane tyrosine kinase receptors,Dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) is an enzyme of crucial importance in medicinal chemistry. DHFR catalyzes the reduction 7,8 dihydro-folate to tetrahydrofolate and intimately couples with thymidylate synthase which is a pivotal enzyme that catalysis the reductive methylation of deoxyuridine monophosphate (dUMP) to deoxythymidine monophosphate (dTMP) utilizing N5,N10-methylene tetrahydrofolate as a cofactor which functions as the source of the methyl group. Purpose: Novel substituted Thiazole agents were designed as DHFR and VEGF-TK inhibitors with increased synergistic activity and decreased side effects. Methods: Five series of compounds were designed with a rational that mimic the pharmacophoric features present in the reported active compounds that target DHFR & VEGFR. These molecules were docked against Methotrexate & Sorafenib as controls. An in silico ADMET study was also performed to validate the bioavailability of the newly designed compounds. The in silico molecular docking & ADMET study were also applied to the non-classical antifolates for comparison. The interaction energy comparable to that of MTX for DHFRI and Sorafenib for VEGF-TKI activity were recorded. Results: Compound 5 exhibited the highest interaction energy when docked against Sorafenib, While Compound 9 showed the highest interaction energy when docked against MTX with the perfect binding mode. Comparable results were also obtained for the ADMET study. Most of the compounds showed absorption within (95-99) zone which varies according to the type of substituents. Conclusions: The Substituted Thiazole Analogues could be a suitable template for antitumor drugs that possess enhanced bioavailability and act as DHFR and VEGF-TK inhibitors.

Keywords: anti-tumor agents, DHFR, drug design, molecular modeling, VEGFR-TKIs

Procedia PDF Downloads 235