Search results for: error minimization

Authors: Ali K. M. Al-Nasrawi, Uday A. Al-Hamdany, Sarah M. Hamylton, Brian G. Jones, Yasir M. Alyazichi

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Surface elevation dynamics have always responded to disturbance regimes. Creating Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to detect surface dynamics has led to the development of several methods, devices and data clouds. DEMs can provide accurate and quick results with cost efficiency, in comparison to the inherited geomatics survey techniques. Nowadays, remote sensing datasets have become a primary source to create DEMs, including LiDAR point clouds with GIS analytic tools. However, these data need to be tested for error detection and correction. This paper evaluates various DEMs from different data sources over time for Apple Orchard Island, a coastal site in southeastern Australia, in order to detect surface dynamics. Subsequently, 30 chosen locations were examined in the field to test the error of the DEMs surface detection using high resolution global positioning systems (GPSs). Results show significant surface elevation changes on Apple Orchard Island. Accretion occurred on most of the island while surface elevation loss due to erosion is limited to the northern and southern parts. Concurrently, the projected differential correction and validation method aimed to identify errors in the dataset. The resultant DEMs demonstrated a small error ratio (≤ 3%) from the gathered datasets when compared with the fieldwork survey using RTK-GPS. As modern modelling approaches need to become more effective and accurate, applying several tools to create different DEMs on a multi-temporal scale would allow easy predictions in time-cost-frames with more comprehensive coverage and greater accuracy. With a DEM technique for the eco-geomorphic context, such insights about the ecosystem dynamic detection, at such a coastal intertidal system, would be valuable to assess the accuracy of the predicted eco-geomorphic risk for the conservation management sustainability. Demonstrating this framework to evaluate the historical and current anthropogenic and environmental stressors on coastal surface elevation dynamism could be profitably applied worldwide.

Keywords: DEMs, eco-geomorphic-dynamic processes, geospatial Information Science, remote sensing, surface elevation changes,

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Authors: Yehjune Heo

Abstract:

Fingerprint Anti-Spoofing approaches have been actively developed and applied in real-world applications. One of the main problems for Fingerprint Anti-Spoofing is not robust to unseen samples, especially in real-world scenarios. A possible solution will be to generate artificial, but realistic fingerprint samples and use them for training in order to achieve good generalization. This paper contains experimental and comparative results with currently popular GAN based methods and uses realistic synthesis of fingerprints in training in order to increase the performance. Among various GAN models, the most popular StyleGAN is used for the experiments. The CNN models were first trained with the dataset that did not contain generated fake images and the accuracy along with the mean average error rate were recorded. Then, the fake generated images (fake images of live fingerprints and fake images of spoof fingerprints) were each combined with the original images (real images of live fingerprints and real images of spoof fingerprints), and various CNN models were trained. The best performances for each CNN model, trained with the dataset of generated fake images and each time the accuracy and the mean average error rate, were recorded. We observe that current GAN based approaches need significant improvements for the Anti-Spoofing performance, although the overall quality of the synthesized fingerprints seems to be reasonable. We include the analysis of this performance degradation, especially with a small number of samples. In addition, we suggest several approaches towards improved generalization with a small number of samples, by focusing on what GAN based approaches should learn and should not learn.

Keywords: anti-spoofing, CNN, fingerprint recognition, GAN

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Andrey A. Chernousov, Ben Y. B. Chan

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The thermal behavior of a large-scale, phase change material (PCM) enhanced building envelope system was studied in regard to the need for pre-fabricated construction in subtropical regions. The proposed large-scale envelope consists of a reinforced aluminum skin, insulation core, phase change material and reinforced gypsum board. The PCM impact on an energy efficiency of an enveloped room was resolved by validation of the Energy Plus numerical scheme and optimization of a smart material location in the core. The PCM location was optimized by a minimization method of a cooling energy demand. It has been shown that there is good agreement between the test and simulation results. The optimal location of the PCM layer in Hong Kong summer conditions has been then recomputed for core thicknesses of 40, 60 and 80 mm. A non-dimensional value of the optimal PCM location was obtained to be same for all the studied cases and the considered external and internal conditions.

Keywords: thermal performance, phase change material, energy efficiency, PCM optimization

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Authors: Eduardo F. Mello, Peter H. Bauer

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The primary focus of this paper is the generation of energy-optimal speed trajectories for heterogeneous electric vehicle platoons in urban driving conditions. Optimal speed trajectories are generated for individual vehicles and for an entire platoon under the assumption that they can be executed without errors, as would be the case for self-driving vehicles. It is then shown that the optimization for the “average vehicle in the platoon” generates similar transportation energy savings to optimizing speed trajectories for each vehicle individually. The introduced approach only requires the lead vehicle to run the optimization software while the remaining vehicles are only required to have adaptive cruise control capability. The achieved energy savings are typically between 30% and 50% for stop-to-stop segments in cities. The prime motivation of urban platooning comes from the fact that urban platoons efficiently utilize the available space and the minimization of transportation energy in cities is important for many reasons, i.e., for environmental, power, and range considerations.

Keywords: electric vehicles, energy efficiency, optimization, platooning, self-driving vehicles, urban traffic

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Authors: Ledeza Jordan Babiano

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Translating statements into mathematical notations is one of the processes in word problem-solving. However, based on the literature, students still have difficulties with this skill. The purpose of this study was to investigate the translation errors of the students when they translate algebraic word problems into mathematical structures and locate the errors via the lens of the Translation-Verification Model. Moreover, this qualitative research study employed content analysis. During the data-gathering process, the students were asked to answer a six-item algebra word problem questionnaire, and their answers were analyzed by experts through blind coding using the Translation-Verification Model to determine their translation errors. After this, a focus group discussion was conducted, and the data gathered was analyzed through thematic analysis to determine the causes of the students’ translation errors. It was found out that students’ prevalent error in translation was the interpretation error, which was situated in the Attribute construct. The emerging themes during the FGD were: (1) The procedure of translation is strategically incorrect; (2) Lack of comprehension; (3) Algebra concepts related to difficulty; (4) Lack of spatial skills; (5) Unprepared for independent learning; and (6) The content of the problem is developmentally inappropriate. These themes boiled down to the major concept of independent learning preparedness in solving mathematical problems. This concept has subcomponents, which include contextual and conceptual factors in translation. Consequently, the results provided implications for instructors and professors in Mathematics to innovate their teaching pedagogies and strategies to address translation gaps among students.

Keywords: mathematical structure, algebra word problems, translation, errors

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

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It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood, type-I error

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Authors: S. Sambath, P. Palanivel

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Research conducted in the last few decades has proven that an inclusion of Distributed Genaration (DG) into distribution systems considerably lowers the level of power losses and the power quality improved. Moreover, the choice of DG is even more attractive since it provides not only benefits in power loss minimisation, but also a wide range of other advantages including environment, economic, power qualities and technical issues. This paper is an intent to quantify and analyse the impact of distributed generation (DG) in Tamil Nadu, India to examine what the benefits of decentralized generation would be for meeting rural loads. We used load flow analysis to simulate and quantify the loss reduction and power quality enhancement by having decentralized generation available line conditions for actual rural feeders in Tamil Nadu, India. Reactive and voltage profile was considered. This helps utilities to better plan their system in rural areas to meet dispersed loads, while optimizing the renewable and decentralised generation sources.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution system, load flow analysis, optimal location, power quality

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Authors: Misganaw Abebe Baye, Ji-Woo Park, Beom-Soo Kang

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The product quality of multi-point dieless forming (MDF) is identified to be dependent on the process parameters. Moreover, a certain variation of friction and material properties may have a substantially worse influence on the final product quality. This study proposed on how to compensate the MDF product defects by minimizing the sensitivity of noise parameter variations. This can be attained by reliability-based robust optimization (RRO) technique to obtain the optimal process setting of the controllable parameters. Initially two MDF Finite Element (FE) simulations of AA3003-H14 saddle shape showed a substantial amount of dimpling, wrinkling, and shape error. FE analyses are consequently applied on ABAQUS commercial software to obtain the correlation between the control process setting and noise variation with regard to the product defects. The best prediction models are chosen from the family of metamodels to swap the computational expensive FE simulation. Genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to determine the optimal process settings of the control parameters. Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) is executed to determine how the noise parameter variation affects the final product quality. Finally, the RRO FE simulation and the experimental result show that the amendment of the control parameters in the final forming process leads to a considerably better-quality product.

Keywords: dimpling, multi-point dieless forming, reliability-based robust optimization, shape error, variation, wrinkling

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Authors: Usman A. Usman

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Undeniably, unlike the Classical side, the Keynesian perspective of the aggregate demand side indeed has a significant position in the policy, growth, and welfare of Nigeria due to government involvement and ineffective demand of the population living with poor per capita income. This study seeks to investigate the effect of Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Financial Deepening on Households, and NPISHs Final consumption expenditure using data on Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. This study employed the ADF stationarity test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model. The results of the study revealed that the coefficient of Government final consumption expenditure has a positive effect on household consumption expenditure in the long run. There is a long-run and short-run relationship between gross fixed capital formation and household consumption expenditure. The coefficients cpsgdp (financial deepening and gross fixed capital formation posit a negative impact on household final consumption expenditure. The coefficients money supply lm2gdp, which is another proxy for financial deepening, and the coefficient FDI have a positive effect on household final consumption expenditure in the long run. Therefore, this study recommends that Gross fixed capital formation stimulates household consumption expenditure; a legal framework to support investment is a panacea to increasing hoodmold income and consumption and reducing poverty in Nigeria. Therefore, this should be a key central component of policy.

Keywords: government final consumption expenditure, household consumption expenditure, vector error correction model, cointegration

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Authors: Amjad Khan

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The security of Vehicular ad hoc networking is of great importance as it involves serious life threats. Thus to provide secure communication amongst Vehicles on road, the conventional security system is not enough. It is necessary to prevent the network resources from wastage and give them protection against malicious nodes so that to ensure the data bandwidth availability to the legitimate nodes of the network. This work is related to provide a non conventional security system by introducing some constraints to minimize the DoS (Denial of services) especially data and bandwidth. The data packets received by a node in the network will pass through a number of tests and if any of the test fails, the node will drop those data packets and will not forward it anymore. Also if a node claims to be the nearest node for forwarding emergency messages then the sender can effectively identify the true or false status of the claim by using these constraints. Consequently the DoS(Denial of Services) attack is minimized by the instant availability of data without wasting the network resources.

Keywords: black hole attack, grey hole attack, intransient traffic tempering, networking

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Authors: Marian Sagat, Mariana Remesikova

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In civil engineering, there is a problem how to industrially produce tensile membrane structures that are non-developable surfaces. Nondevelopable surfaces can only be developed with a certain error and we want to minimize this error. To that goal, the non-developable surfaces are cut into plates along to the geodesic curves. We propose a numerical algorithm for finding approximations of open geodesics on meshes and surfaces based on geodesic curvature flow. For practical reasons, it is important to automatize the choice of the time step. We propose a method for automatic setting of the time step based on the diagonal dominance criterion for the matrix of the linear system obtained by discretization of our partial differential equation model. Practical experiments show reliability of this method. Because approximation of the model is made by numerical method based on classic derivatives, it is necessary to solve obstacles which occur for meshes with sharp corners. We solve this problem for big family of meshes with sharp corners via special rotations which can be seen as partial unfolding of the mesh. In practical applications, it is required that the approximation of geodesic has its vertices only on the edges of the mesh. This problem is solved by a specially designed pointing tracking algorithm. We also partially solve the problem of finding geodesics on meshes with holes. We implemented the whole algorithm in Rhinoceros (commercial 3D computer graphics and computer-aided design software ). It is done by using C# language as C# assembly library for Grasshopper, which is plugin in Rhinoceros.

Keywords: geodesic, geodesic curvature flow, mesh, Rhinoceros software

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Hao Wang, Shuguo Pan

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The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal received by the dynamic vehicle in the harsh environment will be frequently interfered with and blocked, which generates gross error affecting the positioning accuracy of the GNSS/Inertial Navigation System (INS) integrated navigation. Therefore, this paper put forward an improved robust Cubature Kalman filter (CKF) algorithm for single-frequency GNSS/INS tightly coupled system ambiguity resolution. Firstly, the dynamic model and measurement model of a single-frequency GNSS/INS tightly coupled system was established, and the method for GNSS integer ambiguity resolution with INS aided is studied. Then, we analyzed the influence of pseudo-range observation with gross error on GNSS/INS integrated positioning accuracy. To reduce the influence of outliers, this paper improved the CKF algorithm and realized an intelligent selection of robust strategies by judging the ill-conditioned matrix. Finally, a field navigation test was performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm based on the double-differenced solution mode. The experiment has proved the improved robust algorithm can greatly weaken the influence of separate, continuous, and hybrid observation anomalies for enhancing the reliability and accuracy of GNSS/INS tightly coupled navigation solutions.

Keywords: GNSS/INS integrated navigation, ambiguity resolution, Cubature Kalman filter, Robust algorithm

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Authors: Vincent King Soon Wong, Hong Seng Ng, Florinna Sim

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Negative Bias Temperature Instability (NBTI) is one of the critical degradation mechanisms in semiconductor device reliability that causes shift in the threshold voltage (Vth). However, thorough understanding of this reliability failure mechanism is still unachievable due to a recovery characteristic known as NBTI recovery. This paper will demonstrate the severity of NBTI recovery as well as one of the effective methods used to mitigate, which is the minimization of measurement system delays. Comparison was done in between two measurement systems that have significant differences in measurement delays to show how NBTI recovery causes result deviations and how fast measurement systems can mitigate NBTI recovery. Another method to minimize NBTI recovery without the influence of measurement system known as Fast Wafer Level Reliability (FWLR) NBTI was also done to be used as reference.

Keywords: fast vs slow BTI, fast wafer level reliability (FWLR), negative bias temperature instability (NBTI), NBTI measurement system, metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET), NBTI recovery, reliability

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Authors: Michael Lousis

Abstract:

This research study is concerned with learner’s errors on Arithmetic and Algebra. The data resulted from a broader international comparative research program called Kassel Project. However, its conceptualisation differed from and contrasted with that of the main program, which was mostly based on socio-demographic data. The way in which the research study was conducted, was not dependent on the researcher’s discretion, but was absolutely dictated by the nature of the problem under investigation. This is because the phenomenon of learners’ mathematical errors is due neither to the intentions of learners nor to institutional processes, rules and norms, nor to the educators’ intentions and goals; but rather to the way certain information is presented to learners and how their cognitive apparatus processes this information. Several approaches for the study of learners’ errors have been developed from the beginning of the 20th century, encompassing different belief systems. These approaches were based on the behaviourist theory, on the Piagetian- constructivist research framework, the perspective that followed the philosophy of science and the information-processing paradigm. The researcher of the present study was forced to disclose the learners’ course of thinking that led them in specific observable actions with the result of showing particular errors in specific problems, rather than analysing scripts with the students’ thoughts presented in a written form. This, in turn, entailed that the choice of methods would have to be appropriate and conducive to seeing and realising the learners’ errors from the perspective of the participants in the investigation. This particular fact determined important decisions to be made concerning the selection of an appropriate framework for analysing the mathematical errors and giving explanations. Thus the rejection of the belief systems concerning behaviourism, the Piagetian-constructivist, and philosophy of science perspectives took place, and the information-processing paradigm in conjunction with the philosophy of mind were adopted as a general account for the elaboration of data. This paper explains why these decisions were appropriate and beneficial for conducting the present study and for the establishment of the ensued thesis. Additionally, the reasons for the adoption of the information-processing paradigm in conjunction with the philosophy of mind give sound and legitimate bases for the development of future studies concerning mathematical error analysis are explained.

Keywords: advantages-disadvantages of theoretical prospects, behavioral prospect, critical evaluation of theoretical prospects, error analysis, information-processing paradigm, opting for the appropriate approach, philosophy of science prospect, Piagetian-constructivist research frameworks, review of research in mathematical errors

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Farzad Razavi, Behrooz Taheri, Mohammad Parpaei, Mehdi Mohammadi Ghalesefidi, Siamak Zarei

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As one of the major problems in protecting large-dimension power systems, power swing and its effect on distance have caused a lot of damages to energy transfer systems in many parts of the world. Therefore, power swing has gained attentions of many researchers, which has led to invention of different methods for power swing detection. Power swing detection algorithm is highly important in distance relay, but protection relays should have general requirements such as correct fault detection, response rate, and minimization of disturbances in a power system. To ensure meeting the requirements, protection relays need different tests during development, setup, maintenance, configuration, and troubleshooting steps. This paper covers power swing scheme of the modern numerical relay protection, 7sa522 to address the effect of the different fault types on the function of the power swing blocking. In this study, it was shown that the different fault types during power swing cause different time for unblocking distance relay.

Keywords: power swing, distance relay, power system protection, relay test, transient in power system

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Usman A. Usman

Abstract:

Undeniably, unlike the Classical side, the Keynesian perspective of the aggregate demand side indeed has a significant position in the policy, growth, and welfare of Nigeria due to government involvement and ineffective demand of the population living with poor per capita income. This study seeks to investigate the effect of Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Financial Deepening on Households, and NPISHs Final consumption expenditure using data on Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. This study employed the ADF stationarity test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model. The results of the study revealed that the coefficient of Government final consumption expenditure has a positive effect on household consumption expenditure in the long run. There is a long-run and short-run relationship between gross fixed capital formation and household consumption expenditure. The coefficients cpsgdp financial deepening and gross fixed capital formation posit a negative impact on household final consumption expenditure. The coefficients money supply lm2gdp, which is another proxy for financial deepening, and the coefficient FDI have a positive effect on household final consumption expenditure in the long run. Therefore, this study recommends that Gross fixed capital formation stimulates household consumption expenditure; a legal framework to support investment is a panacea to increasing hoodmold income and consumption and reducing poverty in Nigeria. Therefore, this should be a key central component of policy.

Keywords: household, government expenditures, vector error correction model, johansen test

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Marium. K.Makhdoom, Talat Hussain, Syed H. Bukhari

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The motivation behind this paper is to focus the need of Zakat as a monetary framework with a specific end goal and as a social equity instrument and minimization of the level of poverty in society to assess the socioeconomic development. The procedure of the study includes investigating the applied system of Islamic economics to propose an option display so as to contribute fundamentally to the Ummah and serving the countries. This paper closes to be viewed Zakat as one of the best possible strategies to quantify the socioeconomic development, which implies when individuals pay Zakat the socioeconomic development level will be higher and vice versa. The duties of Muslims to pay Zakat to accomplish practical improvement as far as wealth redistribution in the middle of Muslims and in addition overcoming any and all hardships between the rich and the poor in the general public. The paper adds to consider Zakat as an index to gauge economic development, moreover, the part of Zakat as an instrument of social equity and neediness destruction in the public eye. By and large, this includes the installment every year of more than two percent of one's capital after the needs of the family have been met.

Keywords: Zakat, Waqf, economic development, Pakistan, Islamic economics, macroeconomics, microeconomics

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Authors: Aleksandar Hatzivelkos

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The term ”compromise” is mostly used casually within the social choice theory. It is usually used as a mere result of the social choice function, and this omits its deeper meaning and ramifications. This paper is based on a mathematical model for the description of a compromise as a version of the Sorites paradox. It introduces a formal definition of d-measure of divergence from a compromise and models a notion of compromise that is often used only colloquially. Such a model for vagueness phenomenon, which lies at the core of the notion of compromise enables the introduction of new mathematical structures. In order to maximize compromise, different methods can be used. In this paper, we explore properties of a social welfare function TdM (from Total d-Measure), which is defined as a function which minimizes the total sum of d-measures of divergence over all possible linear orderings. We prove that TdM satisfy strict Pareto principle and behaves well asymptotically. Furthermore, we show that for certain domain restrictions, TdM satisfy positive responsiveness and IIIA (intense independence of irrelevant alternatives) thus being equivalent to Borda count on such domain restriction. This result gives new opportunities in social choice, especially when there is an emphasis on compromise in the decision-making process.

Keywords: borda count, compromise, measure of divergence, minimization

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Authors: Venkata Reddy Kota

Abstract:

These days, the industrial trend is moving away from heavy and bulky passive components to power converter systems that use more and more semiconductor elements. Also, it is difficult to connect the traditional converters to the high and medium voltage. For these reasons, a new family of multilevel inverters has appeared as a solution for working with higher voltage levels. Different modulation topologies like Sinusoidal Pulse Width Modulation (SPWM), Selective Harmonic Elimination Pulse Width Modulation (SHE-PWM) are available for multilevel inverters. In this work, different hybrid modulation techniques which are combination of fundamental frequency modulation and multilevel sinusoidal-modulation are compared. The main characteristic of these modulations are reduction of switching losses with good harmonic performance and balanced power loss dissipation among the device. The proposed hybrid modulation schemes are developed and simulated in Matlab/Simulink for cascaded H-bridge inverter. The results validate the applicability of the proposed schemes for cascaded multilevel inverter.

Keywords: hybrid PWM techniques, cascaded multilevel inverters, switching loss minimization

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Authors: Farouk Metiri, Halim Zeghdoudi, Mohamed Riad Remita

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Credibility theory is an experience rating technique in actuarial science which can be seen as one of quantitative tools that allows the insurers to perform experience rating, that is, to adjust future premiums based on past experiences. It is used usually in automobile insurance, worker's compensation premium, and IBNR (incurred but not reported claims to the insurer) where credibility theory can be used to estimate the claim size amount. In this study, we focused on a popular tool in credibility theory which is the Bayesian premium estimator, considering Lindley distribution as a claim distribution. We derive this estimator under entropy loss which is asymmetric and squared error loss which is a symmetric loss function with informative and non-informative priors. In a purely Bayesian setting, the prior distribution represents the insurer’s prior belief about the insured’s risk level after collection of the insured’s data at the end of the period. However, the explicit form of the Bayesian premium in the case when the prior is not a member of the exponential family could be quite difficult to obtain as it involves a number of integrations which are not analytically solvable. The paper finds a solution to this problem by deriving this estimator using numerical approximation (Lindley approximation) which is one of the suitable approximation methods for solving such problems, it approaches the ratio of the integrals as a whole and produces a single numerical result. Simulation study using Monte Carlo method is then performed to evaluate this estimator and mean squared error technique is made to compare the Bayesian premium estimator under the above loss functions.

Keywords: bayesian estimator, credibility theory, entropy loss, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Eunsu Jang, Kang Park

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In developing an armored ground combat vehicle (AGCV), it is a very important step to analyze the vulnerability (or the survivability) of the AGCV against enemy’s attack. In the vulnerability analysis, the penetration equations are usually used to get the penetration depth and check whether a bullet can penetrate the armor of the AGCV, which causes the damage of internal components or crews. The penetration equations are derived from penetration experiments which require long time and great efforts. However, they usually hold only for the specific material of the target and the specific type of the bullet used in experiments. Thus, penetration simulation using ANSYS can be another option to calculate penetration depth. However, it is very important to model the targets and select the input parameters in order to get an accurate penetration depth. This paper performed a sensitivity analysis of input parameters of ANSYS on the accuracy of the calculated penetration depth. Two conflicting objectives need to be achieved in adopting ANSYS in penetration analysis: maximizing the accuracy of calculation and minimizing the calculation time. To maximize the calculation accuracy, the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters for ANSYS was performed and calculated the RMS error with the experimental data. The input parameters include mesh size, boundary condition, material properties, target diameter are tested and selected to minimize the error between the calculated result from simulation and the experiment data from the papers on the penetration equation. To minimize the calculation time, the parameter values obtained from accuracy analysis are adjusted to get optimized overall performance. As result of analysis, the followings were found: 1) As the mesh size gradually decreases from 0.9 mm to 0.5 mm, both the penetration depth and calculation time increase. 2) As diameters of the target decrease from 250mm to 60 mm, both the penetration depth and calculation time decrease. 3) As the yield stress which is one of the material property of the target decreases, the penetration depth increases. 4) The boundary condition with the fixed side surface of the target gives more penetration depth than that with the fixed side and rear surfaces. By using above finding, the input parameters can be tuned to minimize the error between simulation and experiments. By using simulation tool, ANSYS, with delicately tuned input parameters, penetration analysis can be done on computer without actual experiments. The data of penetration experiments are usually hard to get because of security reasons and only published papers provide them in the limited target material. The next step of this research is to generalize this approach to anticipate the penetration depth by interpolating the known penetration experiments. This result may not be accurate enough to be used to replace the penetration experiments, but those simulations can be used in the early stage of the design process of AGCV in modelling and simulation stage.

Keywords: ANSYS, input parameters, penetration depth, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Yen Chia-Ju, Cheng Ding-Ruei

Abstract:

This study took case office building as subject and explored the responsive work order repair request of facilities and equipment in offices and public areas by gray theory, with the purpose of providing for future related office building owners, executive managers, property management companies, mechanical and electrical companies as reference for deciding and assessing forecast model. Important conclusions of this study are summarized as follows according to the study findings: 1. Grey Relational Analysis discusses the importance of facilities repair number of six categories, namely, power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, fire systems and manpower dispatch in order. In terms of facilities maintenance importance are power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, manpower dispatch and fire systems in order. 2. GM (1,N) and regression method took maintenance hours as dependent variables and repair number, leased area and tenants number as independent variables and conducted single month forecast based on 12 data from January to December 2011. The mean absolute error and average accuracy of GM (1,N) from verification results were 6.41% and 93.59%; the mean absolute error and average accuracy of regression model were 4.66% and 95.34%, indicating that they have highly accurate forecast capability.

Keywords: rey theory, forecast model, Taipei 101, office buildings, property management, facilities, equipment

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Authors: Jyh Sheen, Yong-Lin Wang

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This research dedicates to find a different measurement procedure of microwave dielectric properties of ceramic materials with high dielectric constants. For the composite of ceramic dispersed in the polymer matrix, the dielectric constants of the composites with different concentrations can be obtained by various mixture equations. The other development of mixture rule is to calculate the permittivity of ceramic from measurements on composite. To do this, the analysis method and theoretical accuracy on six basic mixture laws derived from three basic particle shapes of ceramic fillers have been reported for dielectric constants of ceramic less than 40 at microwave frequency. Similar researches have been done for other well-known mixture rules. They have shown that both the physical curve matching with experimental results and low potential theory error are important to promote the calculation accuracy. Recently, a modified of mixture equation for high dielectric constant ceramics at microwave frequency has also been presented for strontium titanate (SrTiO3) which was selected from five more well known mixing rules and has shown a good accuracy for high dielectric constant measurements. However, it is still not clear the accuracy of this modified equation for other high dielectric constant materials. Therefore, the five more well known mixing rules are selected again to understand their application to other high dielectric constant ceramics. The other high dielectric constant ceramic, TiO2 with dielectric constant 100, was then chosen for this research. Their theoretical error equations are derived. In addition to the theoretical research, experimental measurements are always required. Titanium dioxide is an interesting ceramic for microwave applications. In this research, its powder is adopted as the filler material and polyethylene powder is like the matrix material. The dielectric constants of those ceramic-polyethylene composites with various compositions were measured at 10 GHz. The theoretical curves of the five published mixture equations are shown together with the measured results to understand the curve matching condition of each rule. Finally, based on the experimental observation and theoretical analysis, one of the five rules was selected and modified to a new powder mixture equation. This modified rule has show very good curve matching with the measurement data and low theoretical error. We can then calculate the dielectric constant of pure filler medium (titanium dioxide) by those mixing equations from the measured dielectric constants of composites. The accuracy on the estimating dielectric constant of pure ceramic by various mixture rules will be compared. This modified mixture rule has also shown good measurement accuracy on the dielectric constant of titanium dioxide ceramic. This study can be applied to the microwave dielectric properties measurements of other high dielectric constant ceramic materials in the future.

Keywords: microwave measurement, dielectric constant, mixture rules, composites

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Authors: Metin Çenesi̇z, Büşra Şahi̇n

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The sustainability of aquaculture is possible through the conscious use of resources and minimization of environmental impacts. These can be achieved through science-based planning, ecosystem-based management, strict observations and controls. The ideal water temperature for rainbow trout, which are intensively farmed in the Black Sea Region of Turkey, should be below 20 oC. In summer, the water temperature exceeds this value in some dams where production is carried out. For this reason, it has become obligatory to transfer to dams where the water temperature is low in order to provide suitable temperature conditions. There are many factors that may cause stress to trout during transportation. Some of these stress factors are starvation of the fish for a while to avoid contamination of the water, mobility and noise during transportation and loading, dissolved oxygen content and composition of the water in the transportation tanks, etc. The starvation stress caused by starvation/lack of food during transportation causes a certain amount of loss of macronutrients such as carbohydrates, proteins and fats in the tissues. This situation causes changes in metabolic activities and the energy balance of fish species. In this study, oxidant-antioxidant values and stress markers of rainbow trout starved before transplantation will be evaluated.

Keywords: oncorhynchus mykiss, starvation stress, TAS, TOS

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Authors: Aisling Davies, Ciara Greene

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Over the past decade the phenomenon of mind-wandering in cognitive tasks has attracted widespread scientific attention. Research indicates that mind-wandering occurrences can be detected through behavioural responses in the Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART) and several studies have attributed a specific pattern of responding around an error in this task to an observable effect of a mind-wandering state. SART behavioural responses are also widely accepted as indices of sustained attention and of general attention lapses. However, evidence suggests that these same patterns of responding may be attributable to other factors associated with more focused states and that it may also be possible to distinguish the two states within the same task. To use behavioural responses in the SART to study mind-wandering, it is essential to establish both the SART parameters that would increase the likelihood of errors due to mind-wandering, and exactly what type of responses are indicative of mind-wandering, neither of which have yet been determined. The aims of this study were to compare different versions of the SART to establish which task would induce the most mind-wandering episodes and to determine whether mind-wandering related errors can be distinguished from errors during periods of focus, by behavioural responses in the SART. To achieve these objectives, 25 Participants completed four modified versions of the SART that differed from the classic paradigm in several ways so to capture more instances of mind-wandering. The duration that trials were presented for was increased proportionately across each of the four versions of the task; Standard, Medium Slow, Slow, and Very Slow and participants intermittently responded to thought probes assessing their level of focus and degree of mind-wandering throughout. Error rates, reaction times and variability in reaction times decreased in proportion to the decrease in trial duration rate and the proportion of mind-wandering related errors increased, until the Very Slow condition where the extra decrease in duration no longer had an effect. Distinct reaction time patterns around an error, dependent on level of focus (high/low) and level of mind-wandering (high/low) were also observed indicating four separate attention states occurring within the SART. This study establishes the optimal duration of trial presentation for inducing mind-wandering in the SART, provides evidence supporting the idea that different attention states can be observed within the SART and highlights the importance of addressing other factors contributing to behavioural responses when studying mind-wandering during this task. A notable finding in relation to the standard SART, was that while more errors were observed in this version of the task, most of these errors were during periods of focus, raising significant questions about our current understanding of mind-wandering and associated failures of attention.

Keywords: attention, mind-wandering, trial duration rate, Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART)

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Authors: Mohammad Farid

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In this paper, we introduce and study an explicit iterative method based on hybrid extragradient method to approximate a common solution of generalized mixed equilibrium problem and fixed point problem for a nonexpansive semigroup in Hilbert space. Further, we prove that the sequence generated by the proposed iterative scheme converge strongly to the common solution of generalized mixed equilibrium problem and fixed point problem for a nonexpansive semigroup. This common solution is the unique solution of a variational inequality problem and is the optimality condition for a minimization problem. The results presented in this paper are the supplement, extension and generalization of the previously known results in this area.

Keywords: generalized mixed equilibrium problem, fixed-point problem, nonexpansive semigroup, variational inequality problem, iterative algorithms, hybrid extragradient method

Procedia PDF Downloads 476

Authors: Ghofrane Rehaiem, Hamza Gharsellaoui, Samir Benahmed

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In this study, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were used for modeling the parameters that allow the real-time scheduling of embedded systems under resources constraints designed for real-time applications running. The objective of this work is to implement a neural networks based approach for real-time scheduling of embedded systems in order to handle real-time constraints in execution scenarios. In our proposed approach, many techniques have been proposed for both the planning of tasks and reducing energy consumption. In fact, a combination of Dynamic Voltage Scaling (DVS) and time feedback can be used to scale the frequency dynamically adjusting the operating voltage. Indeed, we present in this paper a hybrid contribution that handles the real-time scheduling of embedded systems, low power consumption depending on the combination of DVS and Neural Feedback Scheduling (NFS) with the energy Priority Earlier Deadline First (PEDF) algorithm. Experimental results illustrate the efficiency of our original proposed approach.

Keywords: optimization, neural networks, real-time scheduling, low-power consumption

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Authors: Karthikeyan Kalirajan, Ashok Joshi

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An optimization problem is to setup to maximize the terminal kinetic energy of a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV). The target location, the impact angle is given as constraints. The MaRV uses an explicit guidance law called Vector guidance. This law has two gains which are taken as decision variables. The problem is to find the optimal value of these gains which will result in minimum miss distance and impact angle error. Using a simple 3DOF non-rotating flat earth model and Lockheed martin HP-MARV as the reentry vehicle, the nature of solutions of the optimization problem is studied. This is achieved by carrying out a parametric study for a range of closed loop gain values and the corresponding impact angle error and the miss distance values are generated. The results show that there are well defined lower and upper bounds on the gains that result in near optimal terminal guidance solution. It is found from this study, that there exist common permissible regions (values of gains) where all constraints are met. Moreover, the permissible region lies between flat regions and hence the optimization algorithm has to be chosen carefully. It is also found that, only one of the gain values is independent and that the other dependent gain value is related through a simple straight-line expression. Moreover, to reduce the computational burden of finding the optimal value of two gains, a guidance law called Diveline guidance is discussed, which uses single gain. The derivation of the Diveline guidance law from Vector guidance law is discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Marv guidance, reentry trajectory, trajectory optimization, guidance gain selection

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 233