Search results for: dynamic Bayesian networks

Authors: Xiongxiong You, Zhanwen Niu

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Choosing an appropriate surrogate model plays an important role in surrogates-assisted evolutionary algorithms (SAEAs) since there are many types and different kernel functions in the surrogate model. In this paper, an adaptive selection of the best suitable surrogate model method is proposed to solve different kinds of expensive optimization problems. Firstly, according to the prediction residual error sum of square (PRESS) and different model selection strategies, the excellent individual surrogate models are integrated into multiple ensemble models in each generation. Then, based on the minimum root of mean square error (RMSE), the best suitable surrogate model is selected dynamically. Secondly, two methods with dynamic number of models and selection strategies are designed, which are used to show the influence of the number of individual models and selection strategy. Finally, some compared studies are made to deal with several commonly used benchmark problems, as well as a rotor system optimization problem. The results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: adaptive selection, expensive optimization, rotor system, surrogates assisted evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Surendar Vaddepalli

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Management education plays a crucial role to enable industry to cope with emerging challenges. It has spread in the last fifteen-twenty years in India and gained popularity as it was aimed at imbibing versatility and multi-tasking abilities in student community. Several management institutions started looking at upgrading their competencies in terms of faculty, research and industry interaction. The competitive business environment has been one of the drivers that paved the way for growing demand for management graduates in the employment market. Industry expects their executives to be engaged in a constant learning process. The ever-increasing demand for managers has led to establish more management institutions; however, the growth was not in line with the expectations from the industry. While top Business Schools are continuously changing the contents and delivery methodologies, academic standards of most of the other Business Schools are not up to the mark and quality of service provided by these institutes has opened various issues for discussion. On this back ground it is important to address the concerns of Indian management education experiencing with time and we have to rethink about the management education and efforts should be made to create a dynamic environment. This paper ties to study the current trends and tries to find out need for value based management education in India to rejuvenate it.

Keywords: management education, management, value based management education, business school, India

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Authors: Adekunle Taiwo Adenike, I. K. Ogundoyin

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Lassa fever is a neglected tropical virus that has become a significant public health issue in Nigeria, with the country having the greatest burden in Africa. This paper presents a Geo-Computational Model for Analysis and Prediction of Lassa Fever Dynamics and Outbreaks in Nigeria. The model investigates the dynamics of the virus with respect to environmental factors and human populations. It confirms the role of the rodent host in virus transmission and identifies how climate and human population are affected. The proposed methodology is carried out on a Linux operating system using the OSGeoLive virtual machine for geographical computing, which serves as a base for spatial ecology computing. The model design uses Unified Modeling Language (UML), and the performance evaluation uses machine learning algorithms such as random forest, fuzzy logic, and neural networks. The study aims to contribute to the control of Lassa fever, which is achievable through the combined efforts of public health professionals and geocomputational and machine learning tools. The research findings will potentially be more readily accepted and utilized by decision-makers for the attainment of Lassa fever elimination.

Keywords: geo-computational model, lassa fever dynamics, lassa fever, outbreak prediction, nigeria

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Authors: B. SahaRoy, T. Medhi, S. C. Saha

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To understand the friction stir welding process, it is very important to know the nature of the material flow in and around the tool. The process is a combination of both thermal as well as mechanical work i.e it is a coupled thermo-mechanical process. Numerical simulations are very much essential in order to obtain a complete knowledge of the process as well as the physics underlying it. In the present work a model based approach is adopted in order to study material flow. A thermo-mechanical based CFD model is developed using a Finite Element package, Comsol Multiphysics. The fluid flow analysis is done. The model simultaneously predicts shear strain fields, shear strain rates and shear stress over the entire workpiece for the given conditions. The flow fields generated by the streamline plot give an idea of the material flow. The variation of dynamic viscosity, velocity field and shear strain fields with various welding parameters is studied. Finally the result obtained from the above mentioned conditions is discussed elaborately and concluded.

Keywords: AA6061-T6, CFD modelling, friction stir welding, material flow

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Authors: Michael Dole, Pierre Ninin, Denis Raffourt

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Most of the CERN’s facilities hosting particle accelerators are large, underground and radioactive areas. All fire detection systems installed in such areas, shall be carefully studied to cope with the particularities of this stringent environment. The detection equipment usually chosen by CERN to secure these underground facilities are based on air sampling technology. The electronic equipment is located in non-radioactive areas whereas air sampling networks are deployed in radioactive areas where fire detection is required. The air sampling technology provides very good detection performances and prevent the "radiation-to-electronic" effects. In addition, it reduces the exposure to radiations of maintenance workers and is permanently available during accelerator operation. In order to protect the Super Proton Synchrotron and its 7 km tunnels, a specific long distance aspirating smoke detector has been developed to detect smoke at up to 700 meters between electronic equipment and the last air sampling hole. This paper describes the architecture, performances and return of experience of the long distance fire detection system developed and installed to secure the CERN Super Proton Synchrotron tunnels.

Keywords: air sampling, fire detection, long distance, radioactive areas

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Authors: Andrew John Zeller, Artjoms Formulevics

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Banking and financial services are rapidly transitioning from being monolithic structures focusing merely on their own financial offerings to becoming integrated players in multiple customer journeys and supply chains. Banks themselves are refocusing on being liquidity providers and underwriters in these networks, while the general concept of ‘embeddedness’ builds on the market readily available API (Application Programming Interface) architectures to flexibly deliver services to various requestors, i.e., online retailers who need finance and insurance products to better serve their customers, respectively. With this new flexibility come new requirements for enhanced cybersecurity. API structures are more decentralized and inherently prone to change. Unfortunately, this has not been comprehensively addressed in the literature. This paper tries to fill this gap by looking at security approaches and technologies relevant to API architectures found in embedded finance. After presenting the research methodology applied and introducing the major bodies of knowledge involved, the paper will discuss six dominating technology trends shaping high-level financial services architectures. Subsequently, embedded finance and the respective usage of API strategies will be described. Building on this, security considerations for APIs in financial and insurance services will be elaborated on before concluding with some ideas for possible further research.

Keywords: embedded finance, embedded banking strategy, cybersecurity, API management, data security, cybersecurity, IT management

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Authors: Muhammad Abdullah Arafat, Nahrin Nowrose

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Wireless charging of electric vehicles is becoming more and more attractive as large amount of power can now be transferred to a reasonable distance using magnetic resonance coupling method. However, proper tuning of the compensation network is required to achieve maximum power transmission. Due to the variation of coil distance from the nominal value as a result of change in tire condition, change in weight or uneven road condition, the tuning of the compensation network has become challenging. In this paper, a tuning method has been described to determine the optimum values of the compensation network in order to maximize the average output power. The simulation results show that 5.2 percent increase in average output power is obtained for 10 percent variation in coupling coefficient using the optimum values without the need of additional space and electro-mechanical components. The proposed method is applicable to both static and dynamic charging of electric vehicles.

Keywords: coupling coefficient, electric vehicles, magnetic resonance coupling, tuning capacitor, wireless power transfer

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Authors: Arakelian Vigen, Geng Jing, Le Baron Jean-Paul

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The paper deals with the design of parallel manipulators with balanced inertia forces and moments. The balancing of the resultant of the inertia forces of 3-RRR planar parallel manipulators is carried out through mass redistribution and centre of mass acceleration minimization. The proposed balancing technique is achieved in two steps: at first, optimal redistribution of the masses of input links is accomplished, which ensures the similarity of the end-effector trajectory and the manipulator’s common centre of mass trajectory, then, optimal trajectory planning of the end-effector by 'bang-bang' profile is reached. In such a way, the minimization of the magnitude of the acceleration of the centre of mass of the manipulator brings about a minimization of shaking force. To minimize the resultant of the inertia moments (shaking moment), the active balancing via inertia flywheel is applied. However, in this case, the active balancing is quite different from previous applications because it provides only a partial cancellation of the shaking moment due to the incomplete balancing of shaking force.

Keywords: dynamic balancing, inertia force minimization, inertia moment minimization, 3-RRR planar parallel manipulator

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Authors: Sorore Benabid

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The Q-enhanced LC filters are the most used architecture in the Bandpass (BP) Continuous-Time (CT) Delta-Sigma (ΣΔ) modulators, due to their: high frequencies operation, high linearity than the active filters and a high quality factor obtained by Q-enhanced technique. This technique consists of the use of a negative resistance that compensate the ohmic losses in the on-chip inductor. However, this technique introduces a zero in the filter transfer function which will affect the modulator performances in term of Dynamic Range (DR), stability and in-band noise (Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)). In this paper, we study the effect of this zero and we demonstrate that a calibration of the excess loop delay (ELD) is required to ensure the best performances of the modulator. System level simulations are done for a 2ndorder BP CT (ΣΔ) modulator at a center frequency of 300MHz. Simulation results indicate that the optimal ELD should be reduced by 13% to achieve the maximum SNR and DR compared to the ideal LC-based ΣΔ modulator.

Keywords: continuous-time bandpass delta-sigma modulators, excess loop delay, on-chip inductor, Q-enhanced LC filter

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Authors: M. Tehranizadeh, E. Shoushtari Rezvani

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Seismic performance of steel moment-resisting frame structures is investigated considering nonlinear soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects. 10-, 15-, and 20-story planar building frames with aspect ratio of 3 are designed in accordance with current building codes. Inelastic seismic demands of the superstructure are considered using concentrated plasticity model. The raft foundation system is designed for different soil types. Beam-on-nonlinear Winkler foundation (BNWF) is used to represent dynamic impedance of the underlying soil. Two sets of pulse-like as well as no-pulse near-fault earthquakes are used as input ground motions. The results show that the reduction in drift demands due to nonlinear SSI is characterized by a more uniform distribution pattern along the height when compared to the fixed-base and linear SSI condition. It is also concluded that beneficial effects of nonlinear SSI on displacement demands is more significant in case of pulse-like ground motions and performance level of the steel moment-resisting frames can be enhanced.

Keywords: soil-structure interaction, uplifting, soil plasticity, near-fault earthquake, tall building

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Authors: Ali Anwar, Hu Qinglei, Li Bo, Muhammad Taha Ali

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In this paper a generic model of perturbed nonlinear systems is considered which is affected by hard backlash nonlinearity at the input. The nonlinearity is modelled by a dynamic differential equation which presents a more precise shape as compared to the existing linear models and is compatible with nonlinear design technique such as backstepping. Moreover, a novel backstepping based nonlinear control law is designed which explicitly incorporates a continuous-time adaptive backlash inverse model. It provides a significant flexibility to control engineers, whereby they can use the estimated backlash spacing value specified on actuators such as gears etc. in the adaptive Backlash Inverse model during the control design. It ensures not only global stability but also stringent transient performance with desired precision. It is also robust to external disturbances upon which the bounds are taken as unknown and traverses the backlash spacing efficiently with underestimated information about the actual value. The continuous-time backlash inverse model is distinguished in the sense that other models are either discrete-time or involve complex computations. Furthermore, numerical simulations are presented which not only illustrate the effectiveness of proposed control law but also its comparison with PID and other backstepping controllers.

Keywords: adaptive control, hysteresis, backlash inverse, nonlinear system, robust control, backstepping

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Authors: Catherine Vasnetsov, Victor Vasnetsov

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Context: Thermo-responsive polymers are materials that undergo significant changes in their physical properties in response to temperature changes. These polymers have gained significant attention in research due to their potential applications in various industries and medicine. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying their behavior are not well understood, particularly in relation to cosolvency, which is crucial for practical applications. Research Aim: This study aimed to theoretically investigate the phenomenon of cosolvency in long-chain polymers using the Flory-Huggins statistical-mechanical framework. The main objective was to understand the interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent under different conditions. Methodology: The research employed a combination of Monte Carlo computer simulations and advanced machine-learning methods. The Flory-Huggins mean field theory was used as the basis for the simulations. Spinodal graphs and ternary plots were utilized to develop an initial computer model for predicting polymer behavior. Molecular dynamic simulations were conducted to mimic real-life polymer systems. Machine learning techniques were incorporated to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the simulations. Findings: The simulations revealed that the addition of very low or very high volumes of cosolvent molecules resulted in smaller radii of gyration for the polymer, indicating poor miscibility. However, intermediate volume fractions of cosolvent led to higher radii of gyration, suggesting improved miscibility. These findings provide a possible microscopic explanation for the cosolvency phenomenon in polymer systems. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to a better understanding of the behavior of thermo-responsive polymers and the role of cosolvency. The findings provide insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying cosolvency and offer specific predictions for future experimental investigations. The study also presents a more rigorous analysis of the Flory-Huggins free energy theory in the context of polymer systems. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data for this study was collected through Monte Carlo computer simulations and molecular dynamic simulations. The interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent were analyzed using the Flory-Huggins mean field theory. Machine learning techniques were employed to enhance the accuracy of the simulations. The collected data was then analyzed to determine the impact of cosolvent volume fractions on the radii of gyration of the polymer. Question Addressed: The research addressed the question of how cosolvency affects the behavior of long-chain polymers. Specifically, the study aimed to investigate the interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent under different volume fractions and understand the resulting changes in the radii of gyration. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study utilized theoretical modeling and computer simulations to investigate the phenomenon of cosolvency in long-chain polymers. The findings suggest that moderate cosolvent volume fractions can lead to improved miscibility, as indicated by higher radii of gyration. These insights contribute to a better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying cosolvency in polymer systems and provide predictions for future experimental studies. The research also enhances the theoretical analysis of the Flory-Huggins free energy theory.

Keywords: molecular modelling, flory-huggins, cosolvency, stimuli-responsive polymers

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Authors: Yasser A. Khalifa, Michael J. Tait, A. M. Asce, Wael W. El-Dakhakhni, M. Asce

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The quasi-static resistance functions for orthogonal corrugated core sandwich panels were determined experimentally. According to the American and Canadian codes for blast resistant designs of buildings UFC 3-340-02, ASCE/SEI 59-11, and CSA/ S850-12 the dynamic behavior is related to the static behavior under uniform loading. The target was to design a lightweight, relatively cheap, and quick sandwich panel to be employed as a sacrificial cladding for important buildings. For that an available corrugated cold formed steel sheet profile in North America was used as a core for the sandwich panel, in addition to using a quick, relatively low cost fabrication technique in the construction process. Six orthogonal corrugated core sandwich panels were tested and the influence of core sheet gauge on the behavior of the sandwich panels was explored using two different gauges. Failure modes, yield forces, ultimate forces, and corresponding deformations were determined and discussed.

Keywords: cold formed steel, lightweight structure, sandwich panel, sacrificial cladding, uniform loading

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Authors: Chih Ming Kung

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This study is an empirical study examining the enrollment rate and dropout rate of students from the perspectives of students’ learning, parents’ involvement and the learning process. Methods: Using the data collected from the entry website of Internet of Things (IoT), parents’ participation and the installation pattern of exit poll website, an investigation was conducted. Results: This study discovered that in the aspect of the degree of involvement, the attractiveness of courses, self-performance and departmental loyalty exerts significant influences on the four aspects: psychological benefits, physical benefits, social benefits and educational benefits of learning benefits. Parents’ participation also exerts a significant influence on the learning benefits. A suitable tool on the cloud was designed to collect the dynamic big data of students’ learning process. Conclusion: This research’s results can be valuable references for the government when making and promoting related policies, with more macro view and consideration. It is also expected to be contributory to schools for the practical study of promotion for enrollment.

Keywords: students’ learning factor, parents’ involvement, involvement, technology

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

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This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Santiago Moll Lopez, Erica Vega Fleitas, Dolors Rosello Ferragud, Luis Manuel Sanchez Ruiz, Jose Antonio Moraño Fernandez

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Game-based learning (GBL) is becoming popular in education. Learning through games offers students a motivating experience related to the social aspect of games. Among the significant positive outcomes are promoting positive emotions and collaboration, improving the assimilation of concepts, and creating an attractive and dynamic environment standout. This work presents a study of the design and implementation of games created with RPG Maker MZ software with a Sci-Fi storytelling environment for developing specific and transversal skills in a Mathematics subject at the Beng in Aerospace Engineering. Games were applied during regular classes and as a part of a Flip-Teaching methodology to increase the motivation and the assimilation of mathematical concepts in an engaging way. The key features of the games were the introduction of avatar design and the promotion of collaboration among students. Students' opinions and grades obtained in the activities and exams showed increased motivation and a significant improvement in their performance compared with other groups or past students' performances.

Keywords: game-based learning, rol games, mathematics, science fiction

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Authors: Giuffrida Graziella, Pennisi Stefania, Coppa Federica, Iannello Giulia, Cartelli Simone, Lo Faro Riccardo, Ferruggia Greta, Brundo Maria Violetta

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Cladode chemical composition may vary according to soil factors, cultivation season, and plant age. The primary metabolites of cladodes are water, carbohydrates, and proteins. The carbohydrates in cladodes are divided into two types: structural and storage. Polysaccharides from Opuntia ficus‐indica (L.) Mill plants build molecular networks with the capacity to retain water, thus they act as mucoprotective agents. Mucilage is the main polysaccharide of cladodes; it contains polymers of β‐d‐galacturonic acid bound in positions (1–4) and traces of R‐linked l‐rhamnose (1-2). Mucilage regulates both the cell water content during prolonged drought and the calcium flux in the plant cells. The in vitro analysis of keratinocytes in monolayer, through the scratch-wound-healing assay, provided promising results. After 48 hours of exposure, the wound scratch was almost completely closed in cells treated with cladode extract. After 72 hours, the treated cells have reached complete confluence, while in the untreated cells, the confluence was reached after 96 hours.

Keywords: cladodes, metabolites, polysaccharide, scratch-wound-healing assay

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Authors: Muhamad Azani Yahya, Umi Nadiah Nor Ali, Mohammed Alias Yusof, Norazman Mohamad Nor, Vikneswaran Munikanan

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In construction, concrete is one of the materials that can commonly be used as for structural elements. Concrete consists of cement, sand, aggregate and water. Concrete can be added with admixture in the wet condition to suit the design purpose such as to prolong the setting time to improve workability. For strength improvement, concrete is being added with other hybrid materials to increase strength; this is because the tensile strength of concrete is very low in comparison to the compressive strength. This paper shows the usage of a waterproofing agent in concrete to enhance the tensile strength. High tensile concrete is expensive because the concrete mix needs fiber and also high cement content to be incorporated in the mix. High tensile concrete being used for structures that are being imposed by high impact dynamic load such as blast loading that hit the structure. High tensile concrete can be defined as a concrete mix design that achieved 30%-40% tensile strength compared to its compression strength. This research evaluates the usage of a waterproofing agent in a concrete mix as an element of reinforcement to enhance the tensile strength. According to the compression and tensile test, it shows that the concrete mix with a waterproofing agent enhanced the mechanical properties of the concrete. It is also show that the composite concrete with waterproofing is a high tensile concrete; this is because of the tensile is between 30% and 40% of the compression strength. This mix is economical because it can produce high tensile concrete with low cost.

Keywords: high tensile concrete, waterproofing agent, concrete, rheology

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Authors: Ding Liangxiao

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The technological advancements in Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) have significantly contributed to the development of new, flexible capacitive pressure sensors,which are pivotal in transforming wearable and medical device technologies. This study employs the sophisticated simulation tools available in COMSOL Multiphysics® to develop and analyze a MEMS-based sensor with a tri-layered design. This sensor comprises top and bottom electrodes made from gold (Au), noted for their excellent conductivity, a middle dielectric layer made from a composite of Silver Nanowires (AgNWs) embedded in Thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU), and a flexible, durable substrate of Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS). This research was directed towards understanding how changes in the physical characteristics of the AgNWs/TPU dielectric layer—specifically, its thickness and surface area—impact the sensor's operational efficacy. We assessed several key electrical properties: capacitance, electric potential, and membrane displacement under varied pressure conditions. These investigations are crucial for enhancing the sensor's sensitivity and ensuring its adaptability across diverse applications, including health monitoring systems and dynamic user interface technologies. To ensure the reliability of our simulations, we applied the Effective Medium Theory to calculate the dielectric constant of the AgNWs/TPU composite accurately. This approach is essential for predicting how the composite material will perform under different environmental and operational stresses, thus facilitating the optimization of the sensor design for enhanced performance and longevity. Moreover, we explored the potential benefits of innovative three-dimensional structures for the dielectric layer compared to traditional flat designs. Our hypothesis was that 3D configurations might improve the stress distribution and optimize the electrical field interactions within the sensor, thereby boosting its sensitivity and accuracy. Our simulation protocol includes comprehensive performance testing under simulated environmental conditions, such as temperature fluctuations and mechanical pressures, which mirror the actual operational conditions. These tests are crucial for assessing the sensor's robustness and its ability to function reliably over extended periods, ensuring high reliability and accuracy in complex real-world environments. In our current research, although a full dynamic simulation analysis of the three-dimensional structures has not yet been conducted, preliminary explorations through three-dimensional modeling have indicated the potential for mechanical and electrical performance improvements over traditional planar designs. These initial observations emphasize the potential advantages and importance of incorporating advanced three-dimensional modeling techniques in the development of Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS)sensors, offering new directions for the design and functional optimization of future sensors. Overall, this study not only highlights the powerful capabilities of COMSOL Multiphysics® for modeling sophisticated electronic devices but also underscores the potential of innovative MEMS technology in advancing the development of more effective, reliable, and adaptable sensor solutions for a broad spectrum of technological applications.

Keywords: MEMS, flexible sensors, COMSOL Multiphysics, AgNWs/TPU, PDMS, 3D modeling, sensor durability

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Authors: Nalini Chitanand

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Given the dynamic nature of the higher education landscape, induction programmes for new academics has become the norm nowadays to support academics negotiate these rough terrain. This study investigates an induction programme for new academics in a higher education institution to establish what difference it has made to participants. The findings revealed that the benefits ranged from creating safe spaces for collaboration and networking to fostering reflective practice and contributing to the scholarship of teaching and learning. The study also revealed that some of the intentions of the programme may not have been achieved, for example transformative learning. This led to questioning whether this intention is an appropriate one given the short duration of the programme and the long, drawn out process of transformation. It may be concluded that the academic induction programme in this study serves to sow the seeds for transformative learning through fostering critically reflective practice. Recommendations for further study could include long term impact of the programme on student learning and success, these being the core business of higher education. It is also recommended that in addition to an induction programme, the university invests in a mentoring programme for new staff and extend the support for academics in order to sustain critical reflection and which may contribute to transformative educational practice.

Keywords: induction programme, reflective practice, scholarship of teaching, transformative learning

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Authors: Taha Benarbia, Kay W. Axhausen, Anugrah Ilahi

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Electric car sharing system as ecologic transportation increasing in the world. The complexity of managing electric car sharing systems, especially one-way trips and battery autonomy have direct influence to on supply and demand of system. One must be able to precisely model the demand and supply of these systems to better operate electric car sharing and estimate its effect on mobility management and the accessibility that it provides in urban areas. In this context, our work focus to develop performances optimization model of the system based on discrete event simulation and stochastic Petri net. The objective is to search optimal decisions and management parameters of the system in order to fulfil at best demand while minimizing undesirable situations. In this paper, we present new model of electric cars sharing with relocation based on monitoring system. The proposed approach also help to precise the influence of battery charging level on the behaviour of system as important decision parameter of this complex and dynamical system.

Keywords: electric car-sharing systems, smart mobility, Petri nets modelling, discrete event simulation

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Eugene Stepanov, Arkadi Ponossov

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Ordinary differential equations with switching nonlinearities constitute a very useful tool in many applications. The solutions of such equations can usually be calculated analytically if they cross the discontinuities transversally. Otherwise, one has trajectories that slides along the discontinuity, and the calculations become less straightforward in this case. For instance, one of the problems one faces is non-uniqueness of the sliding modes. In the presentation, it is proposed to apply the theory of hybrid dynamical systems to calculate the solutions that are ‘hidden’ in the discontinuities. Roughly, one equips the underlying switched system with an explicitly designed discrete dynamical system (‘automaton’), which governs the dynamics of the switched system. This construction ‘splits’ the dynamics, which, as it is shown in the presentation, gives uniqueness of the resulting hybrid trajectories and at the same time provides explicit formulae for them. Projecting the hybrid trajectories back onto the original continuous system explains non-uniqueness of its trajectories. The automaton is designed with the help of the attractors of the specially constructed adjoint dynamical system. Several examples are provided in the presentation, which supports the efficiency of the suggested scheme. The method can be of interest in control theory, gene regulatory networks, neural field models and other fields, where switched dynamics is a part of the analysis.

Keywords: hybrid dynamical systems, singular perturbation analysis, sliding modes, switched dynamics

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Authors: Shivendra Pratap Singh, Rishabh Sharma

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The widespread adoption of mobile technology in recent years has revolutionized the way we communicate and access information. The evolution of mobile systems has been rapid and impactful, shaping our lives and changing the way we live and work. However, despite its significant influence, the history and development of mobile technology are not well understood by the general public. This research paper aims to examine the history, technology and future of mobile systems, exploring their evolution from early mobile phones to the latest smartphones and beyond. The study will analyze the technological advancements and innovations that have shaped the mobile industry, from the introduction of mobile internet and multimedia capabilities to the integration of artificial intelligence and 5G networks. Additionally, the paper will also address the challenges and opportunities facing the future of mobile technology, such as privacy concerns, battery life, and the increasing demand for high-speed internet. Finally, the paper will also provide insights into potential future developments and innovations in the mobile sector, such as foldable phones, wearable technology, and the Internet of Things (IoT). The purpose of this research paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of the history, technology, and future of mobile systems, shedding light on their impact on society and the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Keywords: mobile technology, artificial intelligence, networking, iot, technological advancements, smartphones

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: S. Bouchami, M.N. Lakhoua

Abstract:

The automotive market is a dynamic market that continues to grow. That’s why several companies belonging to this sector adopt a quality improvement approach. Wanting to be competitive and successful in the environment in which they operate, these companies are dedicated to establishing a system of quality management to ensure the achievement of the objective quality, improving the products and process as well as the satisfaction of the customers. In this paper, the management of the quality and the improvement of a production line in an industrial company is presented. In fact, the project is divided into two essential parts: the creation of the technical line documentation and the quality assurance documentation and the resolution of defects at the line, as well as those claimed by the customer. The creation of the documents has required a deep understanding of the manufacturing process. The analysis and problem solving were done through the implementation of PDCA (Plan Do Check Act) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis). As perspective, in order to better optimize production and improve the efficiency of the production line, a study on the problems associated with the supply of raw materials should be made to solve the problems of stock-outs which cause delays penalizing for the industrial company.

Keywords: quality management, documentary system, Plan Do Check Act (PDCA), fault tree analysis (FTA) method

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Authors: Hamed A. El-Serehy, Khaled A. Al-Rasheid, Fahad A Al-Misned

Abstract:

The meiofaunal population fluctuation, microbial dynamic and the composition of the sedimentary organic matter were investigated seasonally in the Egyptian shores along the northern part of Red Sea. Total meiofaunal population densities were extremely low with an annual average of 109 ±26 ind./10 cm2 and largely dominated by nematodes (on annual average from 52% to 94% of total meiofaunal density). The benthic microbial population densities ranged from 0.26±0.02 x 108 to 102.67±18.62 x 108/g dry sediment. Total sedimentary organic matter concentrations varied between 5.8 and 11.6 mg/g and the organic carbon, which was measured as summation of the carbohydrates, proteins and lipids, accounted for only a small fraction of being 32 % of the total organic matter. Chlorophyll a attained very low values and fluctuated between 2 and 11 µg/g. The very low chlorophyll a concentration in the Egyptian coasts along the Red Sea can suggest that the sedimentary organic matter along the Egyptian coasts is dominated by organic detrital and heterotrophic bacteria on one hand, and do not promote carbon transfer towards the higher trophic level on the other hand. However, the present study indicates that the existing of well diversified meiofaunal group, with a total of ten meiofaunal taxa, can serve as food for higher trophic levels in the Red Sea marine ecosystem.

Keywords: bacteria, meiofauna, intertidal sediments, Red Sea

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Authors: A. Chegenizadeh, M. Keramatikerman, H. Nikraz

Abstract:

Bitumen is one of the most applicable materials in pavement engineering. It is a binding material with unique viscoelastic properties, especially when it mixes with polymer. In this study, to figure out the viscoelastic behaviour of the polymer modified with bitumen (PMB), a series of dynamic shearing rheological (DSR) tests were conducted. Four percentages of lime (i.e. 1%, 2%, 4% and 5%) were mixed with PMB and tested under four different temperatures including 64ºC, 70ºC, 76ºC and 82ºC. The results indicated that complex shearing modulus (G*) increased by increasing the frequency due to raised resistance against deformation. The phase angle (δ) showed a decreasing trend by incrementing the frequency. The addition of lime percentages increased the complex modulus value and declined phase angle parameter. Increasing the temperature decreased the complex modulus and increased the phase angle until 70ºC. The decreasing trend of rutting factor with increasing temperature revealed that rutting factor improved by the addition of the lime to the PMB.

Keywords: rheological properties, DSR test, polymer mixed with bitumen (PMB), complex modulus, lime

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Authors: Ali Raza

Abstract:

The dynamic landscape of communication has brought about significant advancements that intersect with the realms of public health and journalism. This abstract explores the evolving synergy between these fields, highlighting how their intersection has contributed to informed societies and improved public health outcomes. In the digital age, communication plays a pivotal role in shaping public perception, policy formulation, and collective action. Public health, concerned with safeguarding and improving community well-being, relies on effective communication to disseminate information, encourage healthy behaviors, and mitigate health risks. Simultaneously, journalism, with its commitment to accurate and timely reporting, serves as the conduit through which health information reaches the masses. Advancements in communication technologies have revolutionized the ways in which public health information is both generated and shared. The advent of social media platforms, mobile applications, and online forums has democratized the dissemination of health-related news and insights. This democratization, however, brings challenges, such as the rapid spread of misinformation and the need for nuanced strategies to engage diverse audiences. Effective collaboration between public health professionals and journalists is pivotal in countering these challenges, ensuring that accurate information prevails. The synergy between public health and journalism is most evident during public health crises. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the pivotal role of journalism in providing accurate and up-to-date information to the public. However, it also highlighted the importance of responsible reporting, as sensationalism and misinformation could exacerbate the crisis. Collaborative efforts between public health experts and journalists led to the amplification of preventive measures, the debunking of myths, and the promotion of evidence-based interventions. Moreover, the accessibility of information in the digital era necessitates a strategic approach to health communication. Behavioral economics and data analytics offer insights into human decision-making and allow tailored health messages to resonate more effectively with specific audiences. This approach, when integrated into journalism, enables the crafting of narratives that not only inform but also influence positive health behaviors. Ethical considerations emerge prominently in this alliance. The responsibility to balance the public's right to know with the potential consequences of sensational reporting underscores the significance of ethical journalism. Health journalists must meticulously source information from reputable experts and institutions to maintain credibility, thus fortifying the bridge between public health and the public. As both public health and journalism undergo transformative shifts, fostering collaboration between these domains becomes essential. Training programs that familiarize journalists with public health concepts and practices can enhance their capacity to report accurately and comprehensively on health issues. Likewise, public health professionals can gain insights into effective communication strategies from seasoned journalists, ensuring that health information reaches a wider audience. In conclusion, the convergence of public health and journalism, facilitated by communication advancements, is a cornerstone of informed societies. Effective communication strategies, driven by collaboration, ensure the accurate dissemination of health information and foster positive behavior change. As the world navigates complex health challenges, the continued evolution of this synergy holds the promise of healthier communities and a more engaged and educated public.

Keywords: public awareness, journalism ethics, health promotion, media influence, health literacy

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Authors: Rachel F. Ajayi, Unathi Sidwaba, Usisipho Feleni, Samantha F. Douman, Ezo Nxusani, Lindsay Wilson, Candice Rassie, Oluwakemi Tovide, Priscilla G.L. Baker, Sibulelo L. Vilakazi, Robert Tshikhudo, Emmanuel I. Iwuoha

Abstract:

Pyrazinamide (PZA) is among the first-line pro-drugs in the tuberculosis (TB) combination chemotherapy used to treat Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Numerous reports have suggested that hepatotoxicity due to pyrazinamide in patients is due to inappropriate dosing. It is therefore necessary to develop sensitive and reliable techniques for determining the PZA metabolic profile of diagnosed patients promptly and at point-of-care. This study reports the determination of PZA based on nanobiosensor systems developed from disuccinimidyl octanedioate modified Cytochrome P450-2E1 (CYP2E1) electrodeposited on gold substrates derivatised with (poly(8-anilino-1-napthalene sulphonic acid) PANSA/PVP-AgNPs nanocomposites. The rapid and sensitive amperometric PZA detection gave a dynamic linear range of 2 µM to 16 µM revealing a limit of detection of 0.044 µM and a sensitivity of 1.38 µA/µM. The Michaelis-Menten parameters; KM, KMapp and IMAX were also calculated and found to be 6.0 µM, 1.41 µM and 1.51 µA respectively indicating a nanobiosensor suitable for use in serum.

Keywords: tuberculosis, cytochrome P450-2E1, disuccinimidyl octanedioate, pyrazinamide

Procedia PDF Downloads 392