Search results for: quantity estimation

Authors: Komlan Sedzro

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We apply the non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-α quantile estimator to appraise the relative efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Africa in terms of outreach. Our purpose is to verify if these institutions, which must constantly try to strike a compromise between their social role and financial sustainability are operationally efficient. Using data on African MFIs extracted from the Microfinance Information eXchange (MIX) database and covering the 2004 to 2006 periods, we find that more efficient MFIs are also the most profitable. This result is in line with the view that social performance is not in contradiction with the pursuit of excellent financial performance. Our results also show that large MFIs in terms of asset and those charging the highest fees are not necessarily the most efficient.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, microfinance institutions, quantile estimation of efficiency, social and financial performance

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Authors: Tingyu Zhang

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The horizontal ecological compensation (HEC) mechanism is the key to stimulating the active participation of the whole basin in ecological protection. In this paper, we construct an evolutionary model for HEC in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) basin with the introduction of the central government constraint and incentive mechanism (CGCIM) and explore the conditions for the realization of a (Protection and compensation) strategy that meets the social expectations. Further, the water quality-water quantity model is utilized to measure the HEC amount with the characteristic factual data of the YREB in 2020-2022. The results show that the stability of the evolutionary game model of upstream and downstream governments in the YREB is closely related to the CGCIM. If (Protection Compensation) is to be realized as the only evolutionary stable strategy of the evolutionary game system composed of upstream and downstream governments, it is necessary for the CGCIM to satisfy that the sum of the incentives for the protection side and its unilateral or bilateral constraints is greater than twice the input cost of the active strategy, and the sum of the incentives for the compensation side and its unilateral or bilateral constraints is greater than the amount of ecological compensation that needs to be paid by it when it adopts the active strategy. At this point, the total amount of HEC that the downstream government should give to the upstream government of the YREB is 2856.7 million yuan in 2020, 5782.1 million yuan in 2021, and 23166.7 million yuan in 2022. The results of the study can provide a reference for promoting the improvement and refinement of the HEC mechanism in the YREB.

Keywords: horizontal ecological compensation, Yangtze river economic belt, evolutionary game analysis, water quality and quantity model research on territorial ecological restoration in Mianzhu city, Sichuan, under the dual evaluation framework

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Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

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Authors: Fatemeh Mohsennezhad

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Air pollution is one of major problems for environment. Providing healthy food and protecting water sources from pollution has been one of the concerns of human societies and decision-making centers so that protecting food from pollution, detecting sources of pollution and measuring them become important. Nutritive and political significance of grape in this area, extensive use of leaf and fruit of this plant and development of urban areas around grape gardens and construction of Tabriz – Miandoab road, which is the most important link between East and West Azarbaijan, led us to examine the impact of this road construction and urban environment pollutants such as lead chromium and cadmium on the quality of this valuable crop. First, the samples were taken from different adjacent places and medium distances from the road, each place being located exactly by Google earth and GPS. Digestion was done through burning dry material and hydrochloric acid and their ashes were analyzed by atomic absorption to determine (Pb, Cr, Cd) accumulations. In this experiments effects of 2 following factors were examined as a variable: Garden distance from the main road with levels 1: For 50 meters, 2: For 120-200 meters, 3: For above 800 meters, and plant organ with levels 1: For fruit, 2: For leaves. At the end, the results were processed by SPSS software. 3.54 ppm, the most lead quantity, was at sample No. 54 in fruits with 800 meters distance from the road and 1.00 ppm was the least lead quantity at sample No. 50 in fruits with 1000 meters from the road. In leaves, the most lead quantity was 19.16 ppm at sample No. 15 with 50 meters distance from the road and the least quantity was 1.41 ppm at sample No. 31 with 50 meters from the road. Pb uptake is significantly different at 50 meters and 200 meters distance. It means that Pb uptake near the main road is the highest. But this result is not true for others elements. Distance has not a meaningful effect on Cr uptake. The result of analysis of variation in distance and plant organ for Cd showed that between fruit and leaf, Cd uptake is significantly different. But distance and interaction between distance and plant organ is not meaningful. There is neither meaningful interaction between these elements uptakes in fruits nor in leaves. If leaves and fruits, assumed all together, showed a very meaningful integration between heavy metal accumulations. It means that each of these elements causes uptake others without considering special organs. In the tested area, it became clear that, from the accumulation of heavy metals perspective, there is no meaningful difference in existing distance between road and garden. There is a meaningful difference among heavy metals accumulation. In other words, increase ratio of one metal to another was different from the resulted differences shown in corresponding graphs. Interaction among elements and distance between garden and road was not meaningful.

Keywords: Vitis vinifera L., phytoremediation, heavy metals accumulation, lead, chromium, cadmium

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Authors: Sunantha Teyarachakul

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We consider the worker-learning Newsvendor Model, under the case of lost-sales for unmet demand, with the research objective of proposing the cost-minimization order policy and lot size, scheduled to arrive at the beginning of the selling-period. In general, the New Vendor Model is used to find the optimal order quantity for the perishable items such as fashionable products or those with seasonal demand or short-life cycles. Technically, it is used when the product demand is stochastic and available for the single selling-season, and when there is only a one time opportunity for the vendor to purchase, with possibly of long ordering lead-times. Our work differs from the classical Newsvendor Model in that we incorporate the human factor (specifically worker learning) and its influence over the costs of processing units into the model. We describe this by using the well-known Wright’s Learning Curve. Most of the assumptions of the classical New Vendor Model are still maintained in our work, such as the constant per-unit cost of leftover and shortage, the zero initial inventory, as well as the continuous time. Our problem is challenging in the way that the best order quantity in the classical model, which is balancing the over-stocking and under-stocking costs, is no longer optimal. Specifically, when adding the cost-saving from worker learning to such expected total cost, the convexity of the cost function will likely not be maintained. This has called for a new way in determining the optimal order policy. In response to such challenges, we found a number of characteristics related to the expected cost function and its derivatives, which we then used in formulating the optimal ordering policy. Examples of such characteristics are; the optimal order quantity exists and is unique if the demand follows a Uniform Distribution; if the demand follows the Beta Distribution with some specific properties of its parameters, the second derivative of the expected cost function has at most two roots; and there exists the specific level of lot size that satisfies the first order condition. Our research results could be helpful for analysis of supply chain coordination and of the periodic review system for similar problems.

Keywords: inventory management, Newsvendor model, order policy, worker learning

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Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

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This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: TThailand tourism, Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information

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Authors: Sandeep Santosh, O. P. Sahu

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In this paper, performance comparison of wideband covariance matrix sparse representation (W-CMSR) method with other existing wideband Direction of Arrival (DOA) estimation methods has been made.W-CMSR relies less on a priori information of the incident signal number than the ordinary subspace based methods.Consider the perturbation free covariance matrix of the wideband array output. The diagonal covariance elements are contaminated by unknown noise variance. The covariance matrix of array output is conjugate symmetric i.e its upper right triangular elements can be represented by lower left triangular ones.As the main diagonal elements are contaminated by unknown noise variance,slide over them and align the lower left triangular elements column by column to obtain a measurement vector.Simulation results for W-CMSR are compared with simulation results of other wideband DOA estimation methods like Coherent signal subspace method (CSSM), Capon, l1-SVD, and JLZA-DOA. W-CMSR separate two signals very clearly and CSSM, Capon, L1-SVD and JLZA-DOA fail to separate two signals clearly and an amount of pseudo peaks exist in the spectrum of L1-SVD.

Keywords: W-CMSR, wideband direction of arrival (DOA), covariance matrix, electrical and computer engineering

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Authors: Prabha Rohatgi

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To obtain an efficient control over a huge amount of inventory of drugs in pharmacy department of any hospital, generally, the medicines are categorized on the basis of their cost ‘ABC’ (Always Better Control), first and then categorize on the basis of their criticality ‘VED’ (Vital, Essential, desirable) for prioritization. About one-third of the annual expenditure of a hospital is spent on medicines. To minimize the inventory investment, the hospital management may like to keep the medicines inventory low, as medicines are perishable items. The main aim of each and every hospital is to provide better services to the patients under certain limited resources. To achieve the satisfactory level of health care services to outdoor patients, a hospital has to keep eye on the wastage of medicines because expiry date of medicines causes a great loss of money though it was limited and allocated for a particular period of time. The objectives of this study are to identify the categories of medicines requiring incentive managerial control. In this paper, to minimize the total inventory cost and the cost associated with the wastage of money due to expiry of medicines, an inventory control model is used as an estimation tool and then nonlinear programming technique is used under limited budget and fixed number of orders to be placed in a limited time period. Numerical computations have been given and shown that by using scientific methods in hospital services, we can give more effective way of inventory management under limited resources and can provide better health care services. The secondary data has been collected from a hospital to give empirical evidence.

Keywords: ABC-VED inventory classification, multi item inventory problem, nonlinear programming technique, optimization of EOQ

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Authors: Orlando Ketebu

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Ogbono seed is the seed obtained from African bush mango (Irvingia gabonenesis) and bitter bush mango (Irvingia wombolu). Irvingia gabonenesis is known for its sweet edible pulp while Irvingia wombolu has a bitter pulp. Their seed powder is used in cooking soup known as ogbono soup in Nigeria and in West Africa. The powder thickens when cooked and researches have shown that it has medicinal uses such as lowering cholesterol; aiding weight loss and helps in improving diabetes control. The nutritional composition of the seeds indicated that Irvingia gabonenesis contains 8.60% protein, 13.8% carbohydrate, 2.0% moisture, 1.5% crude fiber, 16.4% ash, and Irvingia wombolu contains 7.38% protein, 25.75% carbohydrate, 11.7% moisture, 0.84% crude fiber, 2.50% ash. Solvent extraction of these seeds has shown that the seed of the two species are oil seeds with approximately 70 % and 52 % for Irvingia gabonenesis and Irvingia wombolu respectively. One major setback using ogbono seed powder in cooking soup is identifying the specie of ogbono seed powder that thickens most within the same cooking condition and how temperature affects the thickness of ogbono seed powder which determines its viscosity and in turn affects the quality of the soup and its nutrients. This research work monitored how the viscosity of ogbono species after being sun dried for one week changes with temperature. The result showed that heating 20 grams of powdered Irvingia gabonenesis and Irvingia wombolu at 30 OC, 45 OC, 55 OC, 65 OC, 75 OC, 85 OC and 95OC respectively in 200 ml beaker mixed with 100 ml of water, the viscosity of both species decreases with increase temperature with Irvingia wombolu having higher average viscosity in Pascal seconds (Pa.s) of 1.059, 1.042, 0.961, 0.778, 0.684, 0.675, and 0.495 at 30 OC, 45 OC, 55 OC, 65 OC, 75 OC, 85 OC and 95 OC respectively compared to Irvingia gabonenesis with result 0.982, 0.920, 0.720, 0.646, 0.597 and 0.446 at 30 OC, 45 OC, 55 OC, 65 OC, 75 OC, 85 OC and 95 OC respectively. Also from the experiment carried out it was found out that the viscosity of both species decreases with ageing of the seeds and the quantity of ogbono seed powder used and amount of water added also affected the viscosity of both species. In conclusion, it was observed that under the same cooking conditions (temperature range, quantity of water added, time and quantity of ogbono seed powder used), Irvingia wombolu had higher viscosity which is a measure of its thickness and quality of nutrients compared to Irvingia gabonenesis and the viscosity of both species decreases with increasing temperature.

Keywords: ogbono seed powder, temperature, viscosity , soup

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Authors: Rong Wang, Sandra Hasanefendic, Elizabeth von Hauff, Bart Bossink

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Technological learning and learning curve models have been continuously used to estimate the photovoltaics (PV) cost development over time for the climate mitigation targets. They can integrate a number of technological learning sources which influence the learning process. Yet the accuracy and realistic predictions for cost estimations of PV development are still difficult to achieve. This paper develops four hypothetical-alternative learning curve models by proposing different combinations of technological learning sources, including both local and global technology experience and the knowledge stock. This paper specifically focuses on the non-linear relationship between the costs and technological learning source and their dynamic interaction and uses the system dynamics approach to predict a more accurate PV cost estimation for future development. As the case study, the data from China is gathered and drawn to illustrate that the learning curve model that incorporates both the global and local experience is more accurate and realistic than the other three models for PV cost estimation. Further, absorbing and integrating the global experience into the local industry has a positive impact on PV cost reduction. Although the learning curve model incorporating knowledge stock is not realistic for current PV cost deployment in China, it still plays an effective positive role in future PV cost reduction.

Keywords: photovoltaic, system dynamics, technological learning, learning curve

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Authors: Nelson Bii, Christopher Ouma, John Odhiambo

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Non-response is a potential source of errors in sample surveys. It introduces bias and large variance in the estimation of finite population parameters. Regression models have been recognized as one of the techniques of reducing bias and variance due to random non-response using auxiliary data. In this study, it is assumed that random non-response occurs in the survey variable in the second stage of cluster sampling, assuming full auxiliary information is available throughout. Auxiliary information is used at the estimation stage via a regression model to address the problem of random non-response. In particular, the auxiliary information is used via an improved Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression technique to compensate for random non-response. The asymptotic bias and mean squared error of the estimator proposed are derived. Besides, a simulation study conducted indicates that the proposed estimator has smaller values of the bias and smaller mean squared error values compared to existing estimators of finite population mean. The proposed estimator is also shown to have tighter confidence interval lengths at a 95% coverage rate. The results obtained in this study are useful, for instance, in choosing efficient estimators of the finite population mean in demographic sample surveys.

Keywords: mean squared error, random non-response, two-stage cluster sampling, confidence interval lengths

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Authors: S. Jain, R. Savalia, V. Saini

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A simple, accurate, precise, sensitive and specific RP-HPLC method was developed and validated for simultaneous estimation of Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil in bulk and tablet dosage form. The RP-HPLC method has shown adequate separation for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil from its degradation products. The separation was achieved on a Phenomenex luna ODS C18 (250mm X 4.6mm i.d., 5μm particle size) with an isocratic mixture of acetonitrile: 50mM phosphate buffer pH 4.0 adjusted with glacial acetic acid in the ratio of 55:45 v/v. The mobile phase at a flow rate of 1.0ml/min, Injection volume 20μl and wavelength of detection was kept at 225nm. The retention time for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil was 2.451±0.1min and 6.167±0.1min, respectively. The linearity of the proposed method was investigated in the range of 5-50μg/ml and 2-20μg/ml for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil, respectively. Correlation coefficient was 0.999 and 0.9996 for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil, respectively. The limit of detection was 0.2847μg/ml and 0.1251μg/ml for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil, respectively and the limit of quantification was 0.8630μg/ml and 0.3793μg/ml for Metoprolol and Olmesartan, respectively. Proposed methods were validated as per ICH guidelines for linearity, accuracy, precision, specificity and robustness for estimation of Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil in commercially available tablet dosage form and results were found to be satisfactory. Thus the developed and validated stability indicating method can be used successfully for marketed formulations.

Keywords: metoprolol succinate, olmesartan medoxomil, RP-HPLC method, validation, ICH

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Authors: Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Mehak Bhandary, Sowmya J. Rao

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Introduction: The significance of the human foot and its measurements in identifying an individual has been proved a lot of times by different studies in different geographical areas and its association to the stature and gender of the individual has been justified by many researches. In our study we have used different foot measurements including the length, width, malleol height and navicular height for establishing its association to stature and gender and to find out its accuracy. The purpose of this study is to show the relation of foot measurements with stature and gender, and to derive Multiple and Logistic regression equations for stature and gender estimation in South Indian population. Materials and Methods: The subjects for this study were 200 South Indian students out of which 100 were females and 100 were males, aged between 18 to 24 years. The data for the present study included the stature, foot length, foot breath, foot malleol height, foot navicular height of both right and left foot. Descriptive statistics, T-test and Pearson correlation coefficients were derived between stature, gender and foot measurements. The stature was estimated from right and left foot measurements for both male and female South Indian population using multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis for gender estimation. Results: The means, standard deviation, stature, right and left foot measurements and T-test in male population were higher than in females. LFL (Left foot length) is more than RFL (Right Foot length) in male groups, but in female groups the length of both foot are almost equal [RFL=226.6, LFL=227.1]. There is not much of difference in means of RFW (Right foot width) and LFW (Left foot width) in both the genders. Significant difference were seen in mean values of malleol and navicular height of right and left feet in male gender. No such difference was seen in female subjects. Conclusions: The study has successfully demonstrated the correlation of foot length in stature estimation in all the three study groups in both right and left foot. Next in parameters are Foot width and malleol height in estimating stature among male and female groups. Navicular height of both right and left foot showed poor relationship with stature estimation in both male and female groups. Multiple regression equations for both right and left foot measurements to estimate stature were derived with standard error ranging from 11-12 cm in males and 10-11 cm in females. The SEE was 5.8 when both male and female groups were pooled together. The logistic regression model which was derived to determine gender showed 85% accuracy and 92.5% accuracy using right and left foot measurements respectively. We believe that stature and gender can be estimated with foot measurements in South Indian population.

Keywords: foot length, gender, stature, South Indian

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Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

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Controlling the flow of fluids is a challenging problem that arises in many fields. Burgers’ equation is a fundamental equation for several flow phenomena such as traffic, shock waves, and turbulence. The optimal feedback control method, so-called model predictive control, has been proposed for Burgers’ equation. However, the model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In practical point of view, it is unusual that all the state variables of systems are exactly known, because the state variables of systems are measured through output sensors and limited parts of them can be only available. In fact, it is usual that flow velocities of fluid systems cannot be measured for all spatial domains. Hence, any practical feedback controller for fluid systems must incorporate some type of state estimator. To apply the model predictive control to the fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation, it is needed to establish a state estimation method for Burgers’ equation with limited measurable state variables. To this purpose, we apply unscented Kalman filter for estimating the state variables of fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation. The objective of this study is to establish a state estimation method based on unscented Kalman filter for Burgers’ equation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: observer systems, unscented Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, Burgers' equation

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Authors: Khaled M. El-Naggar

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This paper presents a fast and efficient technique for monitoring and supervising power system disturbances generated due to dynamic performance of power systems or faults. Monitoring power system quantities involve monitoring fundamental voltage, current magnitudes, and their frequencies as well as their negative and zero sequence components under different operating conditions. The proposed technique is based on simulated annealing optimization technique (SA). The method uses digital set of measurements for the voltage or current waveforms at power system bus to perform the estimation process digitally. The algorithm is tested using different simulated data to monitor the symmetrical components of power system waveforms. Different study cases are considered in this work. Effects of number of samples, sampling frequency and the sample window size are studied. Results are reported and discussed.

Keywords: estimation, faults, measurement, symmetrical components

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Ejaz Ahmed, Huang Yong

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The operation of aero engines has a critical importance in the vicinity of lean blowout (LBO) limits. Lefebvre’s model of LBO based on empirical correlation has been extended to flame volume concept by the authors. The flame volume takes into account the effects of geometric configuration, the complex spatial interaction of mixing, turbulence, heat transfer and combustion processes inside the gas turbine combustion chamber. For these reasons, flame volume based LBO predictions are more accurate. Although LBO prediction accuracy has improved, it poses a challenge associated with Vf estimation in real gas turbine combustors. This work extends the approach of flame volume prediction previously based on fuel iterative approximation with cold flow simulations to reactive flow simulations. Flame volume for 11 combustor configurations has been simulated and validated against experimental data. To make prediction methodology robust as required in the preliminary design stage, reactive flow simulations were carried out with the combination of probability density function (PDF) and discrete phase model (DPM) in FLUENT 15.0. The criterion for flame identification was defined. Two important parameters i.e. critical injection diameter (Dp,crit) and critical temperature (Tcrit) were identified, and their influence on reactive flow simulation was studied for Vf estimation. Obtained results exhibit ±15% error in Vf estimation with experimental data.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, gas turbine combustor, lean blowout

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Authors: Serge B. Provost, Yishan Zhang

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A moment-based adjustment to the saddlepoint approximation is introduced in the context of density estimation. First applied to univariate distributions, this methodology is extended to the bivariate case. It then entails estimating the density function associated with each marginal distribution by means of the saddlepoint approximation and applying a bivariate adjustment to the product of the resulting density estimates. The connection to the distribution of empirical copulas will be pointed out. As well, a novel approach is proposed for estimating the support of distribution. As these results solely rely on sample moments and empirical cumulant-generating functions, they are particularly well suited for modeling massive data sets. Several illustrative applications will be presented.

Keywords: empirical cumulant-generating function, endpoints identification, saddlepoint approximation, sample moments, density estimation

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Authors: Ms Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis as a tool for the causal inference in the observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned, thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. For the binary outcome, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be estimated by odds ratios, relative risks, and risk differences. However, using the different PS methods may give you a different estimation of the treatment effect on the outcome. Several methods of PS analyses have been used mainly, include matching, inverse probability of weighting, stratification, and covariate adjusted on PS. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables (exposure, covariates), the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect (ATE) utilizing the stratification of PS method. Therefore, we are trying to avoid choosing arbitrary cut-points, instead, we continuously discretize the PS and accumulate information across all cut-points for inferences. We will use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate ATE, focusing on two PS methods, stratification and covariate adjusted on PS. We will then show how this can be observed based on the analyses of the data from a case-control study of breast cancer, the Polish Women’s Health Study.

Keywords: average treatment effect, propensity score, stratification, covariate adjusted, monte Calro estimation, breast cancer, case_control study

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Authors: Ka C. Lam, Oluwafunmibi S. Idowu

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Uncertainty in cost is a major factor affecting performance of construction projects. To our knowledge, several conceptual cost models have been developed with varying degrees of accuracy. Incorporating conceptual quantities into conceptual cost models could improve the accuracy of early predesign cost estimates. Hence, the development of quantity models for estimating conceptual quantities of framed reinforced concrete structures using supervised machine learning is the aim of the current research. Using measured quantities of structural elements and design variables such as live loads and soil bearing pressures, response and predictor variables were defined and used for constructing conceptual quantities models. Twenty-four models were developed for comparison using a combination of non-parametric support vector regression, linear regression, and bootstrap resampling techniques. R programming language was used for data analysis and model implementation. Gross soil bearing pressure and gross floor loading were discovered to have a major influence on the quantities of concrete and reinforcement used for foundations. Building footprint and gross floor loading had a similar influence on beams and slabs. Future research could explore the modelling of other conceptual quantities for walls, finishes, and services using machine learning techniques. Estimation of conceptual quantities would assist construction planners in early resource planning and enable detailed performance evaluation of early cost predictions.

Keywords: bootstrapping, conceptual quantities, modelling, reinforced concrete, support vector regression

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Authors: Arunee Wongkhao, Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we propose two new confidence intervals for the difference between the inverse of normal means with known coefficients of variation. One of these two confidence intervals for this problem is constructed based on the generalized confidence interval and the other confidence interval is constructed based on the closed form method of variance estimation. We examine the performance of these confidence intervals in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths via Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: coverage probability, expected length, inverse of normal mean, coefficient of variation, generalized confidence interval, closed form method of variance estimation

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Authors: Isha Saxena, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Christopher Crabtree

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The calculations done at the beginning of the life of a wind farm are rarely reliable, which makes it important to conduct research and study the failure and repair rates of the wind turbines under various conditions. This miscalculation happens because the current models make a simplifying assumption that the failure/repair rate remains constant over time. This means that the reliability function is exponential in nature. This research aims to create a more accurate model using sensory data and a data-driven approach. The data cleaning and data processing is done by comparing the Power Curve data of the wind turbines with SCADA data. This is then converted to times to repair and times to failure timeseries data. Several different mathematical functions are fitted to the times to failure and times to repair data of the wind turbine components using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Posterior expectation method for Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Initial results indicate that two parameter Weibull function and exponential function produce almost identical results. Further analysis is being done using the complex system analysis considering the failures of each electrical and mechanical component of the wind turbine. The aim of this project is to perform a more accurate reliability analysis that can be helpful for the engineers to schedule maintenance and repairs to decrease the downtime of the turbine.

Keywords: reliability, bayesian parameter inference, maximum likelihood estimation, weibull function, SCADA data

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Authors: Jie Xu, Zengshan Tian, Ze Li

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Previous indoor ranging or localization systems achieving high accuracy time of flight (ToF) estimation relied on two key points. One is to do strict time and frequency synchronization between the transmitter and receiver to eliminate equipment asynchronous errors such as carrier frequency offset (CFO), but this is difficult to achieve in a practical communication system. The other one is to extend the total bandwidth of the communication because the accuracy of ToF estimation is proportional to the bandwidth, and the larger the total bandwidth, the higher the accuracy of ToF estimation obtained. For example, ultra-wideband (UWB) technology is implemented based on this theory, but high precision ToF estimation is difficult to achieve in common WiFi or Bluetooth systems with lower bandwidth compared to UWB. Therefore, it is meaningful to study how to achieve high-precision ranging with lower bandwidth when the transmitter and receiver are asynchronous. To tackle the above problems, we propose a two-way channel error elimination theory and a frequency hopping-based carrier phase ranging algorithm to achieve high accuracy ranging under asynchronous conditions. The two-way channel error elimination theory uses the symmetry property of the two-way channel to solve the asynchronous phase error caused by the asynchronous transmitter and receiver, and we also study the effect of the two-way channel generation time difference on the phase according to the characteristics of different hardware devices. The frequency hopping-based carrier phase ranging algorithm uses frequency hopping to extend the equivalent bandwidth and incorporates a carrier phase ranging algorithm with multipath resolution to achieve a ranging accuracy comparable to that of UWB at 400 MHz bandwidth in the typical 80 MHz bandwidth of commercial WiFi. Finally, to verify the validity of the algorithm, we implement this theory using a software radio platform, and the actual experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a median ranging error of 5.4 cm in the 5 m range, 7 cm in the 10 m range, and 10.8 cm in the 20 m range for a total bandwidth of 80 MHz.

Keywords: frequency hopping, phase error elimination, carrier phase, ranging

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Authors: I. Djefour, M. Saidi, I. Tlemsani, S. Toubal

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Lignin is a molecule derived from wood and also generated as waste from the paper industry. With a view to its valorization and protection of the environment, we are interested in its use as a superplasticizer-type adjuvant in mortars and concretes to improve their mechanical strengths. The additives of the concrete have a very strong influence on the properties of the fresh and / or hardened concrete. This study examines the development and use of industrial waste and lignin extracted from a renewable natural source (wood) in cementitious materials. The use of these resources is known at present as a definite resurgence of interest in the development of building materials. Physicomechanical characteristics of mortars are determined by optimization quantity of the natural superplasticizer. The results show that the mechanical strengths of mortars based on natural adjuvant have improved by 20% (64 MPa) for a W/C ratio = 0.4, and the amount of natural adjuvant of dry extract needed is 40 times smaller than commercial adjuvant. This study has a scientific impact (improving the performance of the mortar with an increase in compactness and reduction of the quantity of water), ecological use of the lignin waste generated by the paper industry) and economic reduction of the cost price necessary to elaboration of self-compacting mortars and concretes).

Keywords: biopolymer (lignin), industrial waste, mechanical resistances, self compacting mortars (SCM)

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Authors: S. Bilal, S. A. Bhat, I. Hussain, J. D. Parrah, S. P. Ahmad, M. R. Mir

Abstract:

Background: The wound healing involves a highly coordinated cascade of cellular and immunological response over a period including coagulation, inflammation, granulation tissue formation, epithelialization, collagen synthesis and tissue remodeling. Wounds in aged heal more slowly than those in younger, mainly because of comorbidities that occur as one age. The present study is about the influence of age on wound healing. 1x1cm^2 (100 mm) wounds were created on the back of the animal. The animals were divided into two groups; one group had animals in the age group of 3-9 months while another group had animals in the age group of 15-21 months. Materials and Methods: 24 clinically healthy rabbits in the age group of 3-21 months were used as experimental animals and divided into two groups viz A and B. All experimental parameters, i.e., Excision wound model, Measurement of wound area, Protein extraction and estimation, Protein extraction and estimation and DNA extraction and estimation were done by standard methods. Results: The parameters studied were wound contraction, hydroxyproline, glucosamine, protein, and DNA. A significant increase (p<0.005) in the hydroxyproline, glucosamine, protein and DNA and a significant decrease in wound area (p<0.005) was observed in the age group of 3-9 months when compared to animals of an age group of 15-21 months. Wound contraction together with hydroxyproline, glucosamine, protein and DNA estimations suggest that advanced age results in retarded wound healing. Conclusion: The decrease wound contraction and accumulation of hydroxyproline, glucosamine, protein and DNA in group B animals may be associated with the reduction or delay in growth factors because of the advancing age.

Keywords: age, wound healing, excision wound, hydroxyproline, glucosamine

Procedia PDF Downloads 634

Authors: Khaled Jaber

Abstract:

The estimation of effort in software development is a complex task. The traditional Waterfall approach used to develop software systems requires a lot of time to estimate the effort needed to implement user requirements. Agile manifesto, however, is currently more used in the industry than the Waterfall to develop software systems. In Agile, the user requirement is referred to as a user story. Agile teams mostly use the Fibonacci sequence 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11, etc. in estimating the effort needed to implement the user story. This work shows through analysis that the Arithmetic sequence, e.g., 3, 6, 9, 12, etc., is more effective than the Fibonacci sequence in estimating the user stories. This paper mathematically and visually proves the effectiveness of the Arithmetic sequence over the FB sequence.

Keywords: agie, scrum, estimation, fibonacci sequence

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Authors: Adeniran Adetunji, Babalola M. Florence, Akande Ademola

Abstract:

In this paper, we made an overview on the concept of adaptive e-Learning system, enumerates the elements of adaptive learning concepts e.g. A pedagogical framework, multiple learning strategies and pathways, continuous monitoring and feedback on student performance, statistical inference to reach final learning strategy that works for an individual learner by “mass-customization”. Briefly highlights the motivation of this new system proposed for effective learning teaching. E-Review literature on the concept of adaptive e-learning system and emphasises on the Item Response Calibration, which is an important approach to developing an adaptive e-Learning system. This paper write-up is concluded on the justification of item response calibration/estimation towards designing a successful and effective adaptive e-Learning system.

Keywords: adaptive e-learning system, pedagogical framework, item response, computer applications

Procedia PDF Downloads 567

Authors: Moumen Souad, Melizi Mohamed

Abstract:

In order to characterize rabbits does of an Aures local population raised in Algeria, a study of their milk yield was realized in the experimental rabbitry of El Hadj Lakhdhar University. Milk production of does was measured every day during the days following 215 parturitions. It was estimated by weighing the female before and after the single daily suckling (10–15 min between the two weighing operations). The various calculated parameters were the quantity of milk produced per day, per week and the total quantity produced in 21 days, as well as the intake of milk by young rabbits. The analysis concerned the effects of the number of successive litters (3 classes: 1 to 3 and more) and of the average number of the number of young rabbits suckled per litter (6 classes: from 1-2 kits to more than 6). During the 21 days of controlled lactation, the average litter size was 6±3. The rabbits of the Aures area produced on average 2544.34±747 g in 21 days that is 121 g of milk/day or 21 g of milk/kit/day. The milk yield increased from 526, 1035, 1240 and 2801 g to 760, 1365, 1715 and 3840 for week 1, 2, 3 and the total period of lactation, respectively. Nevertheless, milk production available per kit and per day decreased linearly with kits number in the litter for each of the 3 weeks considered. On the other hand the milk yield was not affected by the weight at birth of kits.

Keywords: milk production, litter size, rabbit, Aures area, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Liseane Padilha Thives, Mayara S. S. Lima, João Victor Staub De Melo, Glicério Trichês

Abstract:

Red mud is a waste resulting from the processing of bauxite to alumina, the raw material of the production of aluminum. The large quantity of red mud generated and inadequately disposed in the environment has motivated researchers to develop methods for reinsertion of this waste into the productive cycle. This work aims to evaluate the resistance to permanent deformation of dense asphalt mixtures with red mud filler. The red mud was characterized by tests of X-ray diffraction, fluorescence, specific mass, laser granulometry, pH and scanning electron microscopy. For the analysis of the influence of the quantity of red mud in the mechanical performance of asphalt mixtures, a total filler content of 7% was established. Asphalt mixtures with 3%, 5% and 7% red mud were produced. A conventional mixture with 7% stone powder filler was used as reference. The asphalt mixtures were evaluated for performance to permanent deformation in the French Rutting Tester (FRT) traffic simulator. The mixture with 5% red mud presented greater resistance to permanent deformation with rutting depth at 30,000 cycles of 3.50%. The asphalt mixtures with red mud presented better performance, with reduction of the rutting of 12.63 to 42.62% in relation to the reference mixture. This study confirmed the viability of reinserting the red mud in the production chain and possible usage in the construction industry. The red mud as filler in asphalt mixtures is a reuse option of this waste and mitigation of the disposal problems, as well as being an environmentally friendly alternative.

Keywords: asphalt mixtures, permanent deformation, red mud, pavements

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Oksana Mykytyuk

Abstract:

Chronic desynchronosis is an important factor of progression of osteoarthritis in shift workers. 80 patients with primary osteoarthritis (female:male ratio = 3:1, average age: 57.6 years, average disease duration: 6.4 years, radiological stage: II-III) were examined, 42% reported systematic night shift-work for more than two years. Full clinical examination was performed, all patients filled in SF-36, WOMAC questonnaries, marked visual analog scales for estimation of pain intensity and general well-being. Patients who had been exposed to night work had significantly worse clinical course of osteoarthritis marked by more (27.5%, p < 0.05) extensive pain syndrome, especially at night hours, (10.00 pm-2.00 am period) and estimated life quality as poorer comparing those working at day time. Osteoarthritis initiation occurred at earlier age in them comparing those who worked in non-shifted regimen. They showed a trend to generalized affliction of bigger quantity of joint groups, higher frequency of synovitis as well. Shift-workers administered higher doses of non-steroid anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and estimated their effect as lower (39.6% average daily relief vs 62.5% in non-shift workers after 10 days of regular application of therapy). Frequency of chronic NSAID-induced gastropathy was 25% higher among night-workers. Shift-workers are predisposed to worse course of osteoarthritis with marked clinical symptoms, requiring higher doses on NSAIDs and with inclination towards bigger frequency of complication. That should be kept in mind while developing individual treatment and secondary prophylaxis strategy.

Keywords: desynchronosis, osteoarthritis, questionnaries, shift-work

Procedia PDF Downloads 110