Search results for: lift scripts

Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Roberta Pecoraro, Elena Maria Scalisi

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Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) and Nanomaterials (ENMs) concern an active research area and a sector in full expansion. They have physical-chemical characteristics and small size that improve their performance compared to common materials. Due to the increase in their production and their subsequent release into the environment, new strategies are emerging to assess risk of nanomaterials. NPs can be released into the environment through aquatic systems by human activities and exert toxicity on living organisms. We evaluated the potential toxic effect of cerium oxide (CeO2) nanoparticles because it’s used in different fields due to its peculiar properties. In order to assess nanoparticles toxicity, Fish Embryo Toxicity (FET) test was performed. Powders of CeO2 NPs supplied by the CNR-IMM of Catania are indicated as CeO2 type 1 (as-prepared) and CeO2 type 2 (modified), while CeO2 type 3 (commercial) is supplied by Sigma-Aldrich. Starting from a stock solution (0.001g/10 ml dilution water) of each type of CeO2 NPs, the other concentration solutions were obtained adding 1 ml of the stock solution to 9 ml of dilution water, leading to three different solutions of concentration (10-4, 10-5, 10-6 g/ml). All the solutions have been sonicated to avoid natural tendency of NPs to aggregate and sediment. FET test was performed according to the OECD guidelines for testing chemicals using our internal protocol procedure. A number of eight selected fertilized eggs were placed in each becher filled with 5 ml of each concentration of the three types of CeO2 NPs; control samples were incubated only with dilution water. Replication was performed for each concentration. During the exposure period, we observed four endpoints (embryo coagulation, lack of formation of somites, failure to lift the yolk bag, no heartbeat) by a stereomicroscope every 24 hours. Immunohistochemical analysis on treated larvae was performed to evaluate the expression of metallothioneins (MTs), Heat Shock Proteins 70 (HSP70) and 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-diethylase (EROD). Our results have not shown evident alterations on embryonic development because all embryos completed the development and the hatching of the eggs, started around the 48th hour after exposure, took place within the last observation at 72 hours. A good reactivity, both in the embryos and in the newly hatched larvae, was found. The presence of heartbeat has also been observed in embryos with reduced mobility confirming their viability. A higher expression of EROD biomarker was observed in the larvae exposed to the three types of CeO2, showing a clear difference with the control. A weak positivity was found for MTs biomarker in treated larvae as well as in the control. HSP70 are expressed homogeneously in all the type of nanoparticles tested but not too much greater than control. Our results are in agreement with other studies in the literature, in which the exposure of Danio rerio larvae to other metal oxide nanoparticles does not show adverse effects on survival and hatching time. Further studies are necessary to clarify the role of these NPs and also to solve conflicting opinions.

Keywords: Danio rerio, endpoints, fish embryo toxicity test, metallic nanoparticles

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Authors: Diego Giuseppe Romano, Gianvito Apuleo, Jiri Duda

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Mobility is one of the most important societal needs for amusement, business activities and health. Thus, transport needs are continuously increasing, with the consequent traffic congestion and pollution increase. Aeronautic effort aims at smarter infrastructures use and in introducing greener concepts. A possible solution to address the abovementioned topics is the development of Small Air Transport (SAT) system, able to guarantee operability from today underused airfields in an affordable and green way, helping meanwhile travel time reduction, too. In the framework of Horizon2020, EU (European Union) has funded the Clean Sky 2 SAT TA (Transverse Activity) initiative to address market innovations able to reduce SAT operational cost and environmental impact, ensuring good levels of operational safety. Nowadays, most of the key technologies to improve passenger comfort and to reduce community noise, DOC (Direct Operating Costs) and pilot workload for SAT have reached an intermediate level of maturity TRL (Technology Readiness Level) 3/4. Thus, the key technologies must be developed, validated and integrated on dedicated ground and flying aircraft demonstrators to reach higher TRL levels (5/6). Particularly, SAT TA focuses on the integration at aircraft level of the following technologies [1]: 1)    Low-cost composite wing box and engine nacelle using OoA (Out of Autoclave) technology, LRI (Liquid Resin Infusion) and advance automation process. 2) Innovative high lift devices, allowing aircraft operations from short airfields (< 800 m). 3) Affordable small aircraft manufacturing of metallic fuselage using FSW (Friction Stir Welding) and LMD (Laser Metal Deposition). 4)       Affordable fly-by-wire architecture for small aircraft (CS23 certification rules). 5) More electric systems replacing pneumatic and hydraulic systems (high voltage EPGDS -Electrical Power Generation and Distribution System-, hybrid de-ice system, landing gear and brakes). 6) Advanced avionics for small aircraft, reducing pilot workload. 7) Advanced cabin comfort with new interiors materials and more comfortable seats. 8) New generation of turboprop engine with reduced fuel consumption, emissions, noise and maintenance costs for 19 seats aircraft. (9) Alternative diesel engine for 9 seats commuter aircraft. To address abovementioned market innovations, two different platforms have been designed: Reference and Green aircraft. Reference aircraft is a virtual aircraft designed considering 2014 technologies with an existing engine assuring requested take-off power; Green aircraft is designed integrating the technologies addressed in Clean Sky 2. Preliminary integration of the proposed technologies shows an encouraging reduction of emissions and operational costs of small: about 20% CO₂ reduction, about 24% NO_x reduction, about 10 db (A) noise reduction at measurement point and about 25% DOC reduction. Detailed description of the performed studies, analyses and validations for each technology as well as the expected benefit at aircraft level are reported in the present paper.

Keywords: affordable, European, green, mobility, technologies development, travel time reduction

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Authors: Philipp Wenger, Michael Beltle, Stefan Tenbohlen, Uwe Riechert

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The integration of renewable energy introduces new challenges to the transmission grid, as the power generation is located far from load centers. The associated necessary long-range power transmission increases the demand for high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines and DC distribution grids. HVDC gas-insulated switchgears (GIS) are considered being a key technology, due to the combination of the DC technology and the long operation experiences of AC-GIS. To ensure long-term reliability of such systems, insulation defects must be detected in an early stage. Operational experience with AC systems has proven evidence, that most failures, which can be attributed to breakdowns of the insulation system, can be detected and identified via partial discharge (PD) measurements beforehand. In AC systems the identification of defects relies on the phase resolved partial discharge pattern (PRPD). Since there is no phase information within DC systems this method cannot be transferred to DC PD diagnostic. Furthermore, the behaviour of e.g. free-moving particles differs significantly at DC: Under the influence of a constant direct electric field, charge carriers can accumulate on particles’ surfaces. As a result, a particle can lift-off, oscillate between the inner conductor and the enclosure or rapidly bounces at just one electrode, which is known as firefly motion. Depending on the motion and the relative position of the particle to the electrodes, broadband electromagnetic PD pulses are emitted, which can be recorded by ultra-high frequency (UHF) measuring methods. PDs are often accompanied by light emissions at the particle’s tip which enables optical detection. This contribution investigates PD characteristics of free moving metallic particles in a commercially available 300 kV SF6-insulated HVDC-GIS. The influences of various defect parameters on the particle motion and the PD characteristic are evaluated experimentally. Several particle geometries, such as cylinder, lamella, spiral and sphere with different length, diameter and weight are determined. The applied DC voltage is increased stepwise from inception voltage up to UDC = ± 400 kV. Different physical detection methods are used simultaneously in a time-synchronized setup. Firstly, the electromagnetic waves emitted by the particle are recorded by an UHF measuring system. Secondly, a photomultiplier tube (PMT) detects light emission with a wavelength in the range of λ = 185…870 nm. Thirdly, a high-speed camera (HSC) tracks the particle’s motion trajectory with high accuracy. Furthermore, an electrically insulated electrode is attached to the grounded enclosure and connected to a current shunt in order to detect low frequency ion currents: The shunt measuring system’s sensitivity is in the range of 10 nA at a measuring bandwidth of bw = DC…1 MHz. Currents of charge carriers, which are generated at the particle’s tip migrate through the gas gap to the electrode and can be recorded by the current shunt. All recorded PD signals are analyzed in order to identify characteristic properties of different particles. This includes e.g. repetition rates and amplitudes of successive pulses, characteristic frequency ranges and detected signal energy of single PD pulses. Concluding, an advanced understanding of underlying physical phenomena particle motion in direct electric field can be derived.

Keywords: current shunt, free moving particles, high-speed imaging, HVDC-GIS, UHF

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Authors: Riccardo Fratini, Riccardo Santini, Jacopo Serafini, Massimo Gennaretti, Stefano Panzieri

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This paper presents a nonlinear differential model, for a three-bladed horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) suited for control applications. It is based on a 8-dofs, lumped parameters structural dynamics coupled with a quasi-steady sectional aerodynamics. In particular, using the Euler-Lagrange Equation (Energetic Variation approach), the authors derive, and successively validate, such model. For the derivation of the aerodynamic model, the Greenbergs theory, an extension of the theory proposed by Theodorsen to the case of thin airfoils undergoing pulsating flows, is used. Specifically, in this work, the authors restricted that theory under the hypothesis of low perturbation reduced frequency k, which causes the lift deficiency function C(k) to be real and equal to 1. Furthermore, the expressions of the aerodynamic loads are obtained using the quasi-steady strip theory (Hodges and Ormiston), as a function of the chordwise and normal components of relative velocity between flow and airfoil Ut, Up, their derivatives, and section angular velocity ε˙. For the validation of the proposed model, the authors carried out open and closed-loop simulations of a 5 MW HAWT, characterized by radius R =61.5 m and by mean chord c = 3 m, with a nominal angular velocity Ωn = 1.266rad/sec. The first analysis performed is the steady state solution, where a uniform wind Vw = 11.4 m/s is considered and a collective pitch angle θ = 0.88◦ is imposed. During this step, the authors noticed that the proposed model is intrinsically periodic due to the effect of the wind and of the gravitational force. In order to reject this periodic trend in the model dynamics, the authors propose a collective repetitive control algorithm coupled with a PD controller. In particular, when the reference command to be tracked and/or the disturbance to be rejected are periodic signals with a fixed period, the repetitive control strategies can be applied due to their high precision, simple implementation and little performance dependency on system parameters. The functional scheme of a repetitive controller is quite simple and, given a periodic reference command, is composed of a control block Crc(s) usually added to an existing feedback control system. The control block contains and a free time-delay system eτs in a positive feedback loop, and a low-pass filter q(s). It should be noticed that, while the time delay term reduces the stability margin, on the other hand the low pass filter is added to ensure stability. It is worth noting that, in this work, the authors propose a phase shifting for the controller and the delay system has been modified as e^(−(T−γk)), where T is the period of the signal and γk is a phase shifting of k samples of the same periodic signal. It should be noticed that, the phase shifting technique is particularly useful in non-minimum phase systems, such as flexible structures. In fact, using the phase shifting, the iterative algorithm could reach the convergence also at high frequencies. Notice that, in our case study, the shifting of k samples depends both on the rotor angular velocity Ω and on the rotor azimuth angle Ψ: we refer to this controller as a spatial repetitive controller. The collective repetitive controller has also been coupled with a C(s) = PD(s), in order to dampen oscillations of the blades. The performance of the spatial repetitive controller is compared with an industrial PI controller. In particular, starting from wind speed velocity Vw = 11.4 m/s the controller is asked to maintain the nominal angular velocity Ωn = 1.266rad/s after an instantaneous increase of wind speed (Vw = 15 m/s). Then, a purely periodic external disturbance is introduced in order to stress the capabilities of the repetitive controller. The results of the simulations show that, contrary to a simple PI controller, the spatial repetitive-PD controller has the capability to reject both external disturbances and periodic trend in the model dynamics. Finally, the nominal value of the angular velocity is reached, in accordance with results obtained with commercial software for a turbine of the same type.

Keywords: wind turbines, aeroelasticity, repetitive control, periodic systems

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