Search results for: stochastic optimal control
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13201

Search results for: stochastic optimal control

12931 Optimized Passive Heating for Multifamily Dwellings

Authors: Joseph Bostick

Abstract:

A method of decreasing the heating load of HVAC systems in a single-dwelling model of a multifamily building, by controlling movable insulation through the optimization of flux, time, surface incident solar radiation, and temperature thresholds. Simulations are completed using a co-simulation between EnergyPlus and MATLAB as an optimization tool to find optimal control thresholds. Optimization of the control thresholds leads to a significant decrease in total heating energy expenditure.

Keywords: energy plus, MATLAB, simulation, energy efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
12930 Optimal Reactive Power Dispatch under Various Contingency Conditions Using Whale Optimization Algorithm

Authors: Khaled Ben Oualid Medani, Samir Sayah

Abstract:

The Optimal Reactive Power Dispatch (ORPD) problem has been solved and analysed usually in the normal conditions. However, network collapses appear in contingency conditions. In this paper, ORPD under several contingencies is presented using the proposed method WOA. To ensure viability of the power system in contingency conditions, several critical cases are simulated in order to prevent and prepare the power system to face such situations. The results obtained are carried out in IEEE 30 bus test system for the solution of ORPD problem in which control of bus voltages, tap position of transformers and reactive power sources are involved. Moreover, another method, namely, Particle Swarm Optimization with Time Varying Acceleration Coefficient (PSO-TVAC) has been compared with the proposed technique. Simulation results indicate that the proposed WOA gives remarkable solution in terms of effectiveness in case of outages.

Keywords: optimal reactive power dispatch, power system analysis, real power loss minimization, contingency condition, metaheuristic technique, whale optimization algorithm

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12929 Stochastic Multicast Routing Protocol for Flying Ad-Hoc Networks

Authors: Hyunsun Lee, Yi Zhu

Abstract:

Wireless ad-hoc network is a decentralized type of temporary machine-to-machine connection that is spontaneous or impromptu so that it does not rely on any fixed infrastructure and centralized administration. As unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also called drones, have recently become more accessible and widely utilized in military and civilian domains such as surveillance, search and detection missions, traffic monitoring, remote filming, product delivery, to name a few. The communication between these UAVs become possible and materialized through Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs). However, due to the high mobility of UAVs that may cause different types of transmission interference, it is vital to design robust routing protocols for FANETs. In this talk, the multicast routing method based on a modified stochastic branching process is proposed. The stochastic branching process is often used to describe an early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, and the reproductive number in the process is used to classify the outbreak into a major or minor outbreak. The reproductive number to regulate the local transmission rate is adapted and modified for flying ad-hoc network communication. The performance of the proposed routing method is compared with other well-known methods such as flooding method and gossip method based on three measures; average reachability, average node usage and average branching factor. The proposed routing method achieves average reachability very closer to flooding method, average node usage closer to gossip method, and outstanding average branching factor among methods. It can be concluded that the proposed multicast routing scheme is more efficient than well-known routing schemes such as flooding and gossip while it maintains high performance.

Keywords: Flying Ad-hoc Networks, Multicast Routing, Stochastic Branching Process, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

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12928 Study of Transport in Electronic Devices with Stochastic Monte Carlo Method: Modeling and Simulation along with Submicron Gate (Lg=0.5um)

Authors: N. Massoum, B. Bouazza

Abstract:

In this paper, we have developed a numerical simulation model to describe the electrical properties of GaInP MESFET with submicron gate (Lg = 0.5 µm). This model takes into account the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the load in the short channel and the law effect of mobility as a function of electric field. Simulation software based on a stochastic method such as Monte Carlo has been established. The results are discussed and compared with those of the experiment. The result suggests experimentally that, in a very small gate length in our devices (smaller than 40 nm), short-channel tunneling explains the degradation of transistor performance, which was previously enhanced by velocity overshoot.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, transient electron transport, MESFET device, simulation software

Procedia PDF Downloads 482
12927 The Role of Information Technology in Supply Chain Management

Authors: V. Jagadeesh, K. Venkata Subbaiah, P. Govinda Rao

Abstract:

This paper explaining about the significance of information technology tools and software packages in supply chain management (SCM) in order to manage the entire supply chain. Managing materials flow and financial flow and information flow effectively and efficiently with the aid of information technology tools and packages in order to deliver right quantity with right quality of goods at right time by using right methods and technology. Information technology plays a vital role in streamlining the sales forecasting and demand planning and Inventory control and transportation in supply networks and finally deals with production planning and scheduling. It achieves the objectives by streamlining the business process and integrates within the enterprise and its extended enterprise. SCM starts with customer and it involves sequence of activities from customer, retailer, distributor, manufacturer and supplier within the supply chain framework. It is the process of integrating demand planning and supply network planning and production planning and control. Forecasting indicates the direction for planning raw materials in order to meet the production planning requirements. Inventory control and transportation planning allocate the optimal or economic order quantity by utilizing shortest possible routes to deliver the goods to the customer. Production planning and control utilize the optimal resources mix in order to meet the capacity requirement planning. The above operations can be achieved by using appropriate information technology tools and software packages for the supply chain management.

Keywords: supply chain management, information technology, business process, extended enterprise

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
12926 Meeting the Energy Balancing Needs in a Fully Renewable European Energy System: A Stochastic Portfolio Framework

Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

Abstract:

The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

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12925 An Optimal Hybrid EMS System for a Hyperloop Prototype Vehicle

Authors: J. F. Gonzalez-Rojo, Federico Lluesma-Rodriguez, Temoatzin Gonzalez

Abstract:

Hyperloop, a new mode of transport, is gaining significance. It consists of the use of a ground-based transport system which includes a levitation system, that avoids rolling friction forces, and which has been covered with a tube, controlling the inner atmosphere lowering the aerodynamic drag forces. Thus, hyperloop is proposed as a solution to the current limitation on ground transportation. Rolling and aerodynamic problems, that limit large speeds for traditional high-speed rail or even maglev systems, are overcome using a hyperloop solution. Zeleros is one of the companies developing technology for hyperloop application worldwide. It is working on a concept that reduces the infrastructure cost and minimizes the power consumption as well as the losses associated with magnetic drag forces. For this purpose, Zeleros proposes a Hybrid ElectroMagnetic Suspension (EMS) for its prototype. In the present manuscript an active and optimal electromagnetic suspension levitation method based on nearly zero power consumption individual modules is presented. This system consists of several hybrid permanent magnet-coil levitation units that can be arranged along the vehicle. The proposed unit manages to redirect the magnetic field along a defined direction forming a magnetic circuit and minimizing the loses due to field dispersion. This is achieved using an electrical steel core. Each module can stabilize the gap distance using the coil current and either linear or non-linear control methods. The ratio between weight and levitation force for each unit is 1/10. In addition, the quotient between the lifted weight and power consumption at the target gap distance is 1/3 [kg/W]. One degree of freedom (DoF) (along the gap direction) is controlled by a single unit. However, when several units are present, a 5 DoF control (2 translational and 3 rotational) can be achieved, leading to the full attitude control of the vehicle. The proposed system has been successfully tested reaching TRL-4 in a laboratory test bench and is currently in TRL-5 state development if the module association in order to control 5 DoF is considered.

Keywords: active optimal control, electromagnetic levitation, HEMS, high-speed transport, hyperloop

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12924 A Model Predictive Control Based Virtual Active Power Filter Using V2G Technology

Authors: Mahdi Zolfaghari, Seyed Hossein Hosseinian, Hossein Askarian Abyaneh, Mehrdad Abedi

Abstract:

This paper presents a virtual active power filter (VAPF) using vehicle to grid (V2G) technology to maintain power quality requirements. The optimal discrete operation of the power converter of electric vehicle (EV) is based on recognizing desired switching states using the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm. A fast dynamic response, lower total harmonic distortion (THD) and good reference tracking performance are realized through the presented control strategy. The simulation results using MATLAB/Simulink validate the effectiveness of the scheme in improving power quality as well as good dynamic response in power transferring capability.

Keywords: electric vehicle, model predictive control, power quality, V2G technology, virtual active power filter

Procedia PDF Downloads 388
12923 A Stochastic Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Weighting Model for Sustainability Measurement in an Organization

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement

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12922 A Neural Network Approach to Understanding Turbulent Jet Formations

Authors: Nurul Bin Ibrahim

Abstract:

Advancements in neural networks have offered valuable insights into Fluid Dynamics, notably in addressing turbulence-related challenges. In this research, we introduce multiple applications of models of neural networks, namely Feed-Forward and Recurrent Neural Networks, to explore the relationship between jet formations and stratified turbulence within stochastically excited Boussinesq systems. Using machine learning tools like TensorFlow and PyTorch, the study has created models that effectively mimic and show the underlying features of the complex patterns of jet formation and stratified turbulence. These models do more than just help us understand these patterns; they also offer a faster way to solve problems in stochastic systems, improving upon traditional numerical techniques to solve stochastic differential equations such as the Euler-Maruyama method. In addition, the research includes a thorough comparison with the Statistical State Dynamics (SSD) approach, which is a well-established method for studying chaotic systems. This comparison helps evaluate how well neural networks can help us understand the complex relationship between jet formations and stratified turbulence. The results of this study underscore the potential of neural networks in computational physics and fluid dynamics, opening up new possibilities for more efficient and accurate simulations in these fields.

Keywords: neural networks, machine learning, computational fluid dynamics, stochastic systems, simulation, stratified turbulence

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12921 Determination of the Optimal DG PV Interconnection Location Using Losses and Voltage Regulation as Assessment Indicators Case Study: ECG 33 kV Sub-Transmission Network

Authors: Ekow A. Kwofie, Emmanuel K. Anto, Godfred Mensah

Abstract:

In this paper, CYME Distribution software has been used to assess the impacts of solar Photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) plant on the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) 33 kV sub-transmission network at different PV penetration levels. As ECG begins to encourage DG PV interconnections within its network, there has been the need to assess the impacts on the sub-transmission losses and voltage contribution. In Tema, a city in Accra - Ghana, ECG has a 33 kV sub-transmission network made up of 20 No. 33 kV buses that was modeled. Three different locations were chosen: The source bus, a bus along the sub-transmission radial network and a bus at the tail end to determine the optimal location for DG PV interconnection. The optimal location was determined based on sub-transmission technical losses and voltage impact. PV capacities at different penetration levels were modeled at each location and simulations performed to determine the optimal PV penetration level. Interconnection at a bus along (or in the middle of) the sub-transmission network offered the highest benefits at an optimal PV penetration level of 80%. At that location, the maximum voltage improvement of 0.789% on the neighboring 33 kV buses and maximum loss reduction of 6.033% over the base case scenario were recorded. Hence, the optimal location for DG PV integration within the 33 kV sub-transmission utility network is at a bus along the sub-transmission radial network.

Keywords: distributed generation photovoltaic (DG PV), optimal location, penetration level, sub–transmission network

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12920 Characteristics-Based Lq-Control of Cracking Reactor by Integral Reinforcement

Authors: Jana Abu Ahmada, Zaineb Mohamed, Ilyasse Aksikas

Abstract:

The linear quadratic control system of hyperbolic first order partial differential equations (PDEs) are presented. The aim of this research is to control chemical reactions. This is achieved by converting the PDEs system to ordinary differential equations (ODEs) using the method of characteristics to reduce the system to control it by using the integral reinforcement learning. The designed controller is applied to a catalytic cracking reactor. Background—Transport-Reaction systems cover a large chemical and bio-chemical processes. They are best described by nonlinear PDEs derived from mass and energy balances. As a main application to be considered in this work is the catalytic cracking reactor. Indeed, the cracking reactor is widely used to convert high-boiling, high-molecular weight hydrocarbon fractions of petroleum crude oils into more valuable gasoline, olefinic gases, and others. On the other hand, control of PDEs systems is an important and rich area of research. One of the main control techniques is feedback control. This type of control utilizes information coming from the system to correct its trajectories and drive it to a desired state. Moreover, feedback control rejects disturbances and reduces the variation effects on the plant parameters. Linear-quadratic control is a feedback control since the developed optimal input is expressed as feedback on the system state to exponentially stabilize and drive a linear plant to the steady-state while minimizing a cost criterion. The integral reinforcement learning policy iteration technique is a strong method that solves the linear quadratic regulator problem for continuous-time systems online in real time, using only partial information about the system dynamics (i.e. the drift dynamics A of the system need not be known), and without requiring measurements of the state derivative. This is, in effect, a direct (i.e. no system identification procedure is employed) adaptive control scheme for partially unknown linear systems that converges to the optimal control solution. Contribution—The goal of this research is to Develop a characteristics-based optimal controller for a class of hyperbolic PDEs and apply the developed controller to a catalytic cracking reactor model. In the first part, developing an algorithm to control a class of hyperbolic PDEs system will be investigated. The method of characteristics will be employed to convert the PDEs system into a system of ODEs. Then, the control problem will be solved along the characteristic curves. The reinforcement technique is implemented to find the state-feedback matrix. In the other half, applying the developed algorithm to the important application of a catalytic cracking reactor. The main objective is to use the inlet fraction of gas oil as a manipulated variable to drive the process state towards desired trajectories. The outcome of this challenging research would yield the potential to provide a significant technological innovation for the gas industries since the catalytic cracking reactor is one of the most important conversion processes in petroleum refineries.

Keywords: PDEs, reinforcement iteration, method of characteristics, riccati equation, cracking reactor

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12919 Global Optimization Techniques for Optimal Placement of HF Antennas on a Shipboard

Authors: Mustafa Ural, Can Bayseferogulari

Abstract:

In this work, radio frequency (RF) coupling between two HF antennas on a shipboard platform is minimized by determining an optimal antenna placement. Unlike the other works, the coupling is minimized not only at single frequency but over the whole frequency band of operation. Similarly, GAO and PSO, are used in order to determine optimal antenna placement. Throughout this work, outputs of two optimization techniques are compared with each other in terms of antenna placements and coupling results. At the end of the work, far-field radiation pattern performances of the antennas at their optimal places are analyzed in terms of directivity and coverage in order to see that.

Keywords: electromagnetic compatibility, antenna placement, optimization, genetic algorithm optimization, particle swarm optimization

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12918 Fast Estimation of Fractional Process Parameters in Rough Financial Models Using Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

Abstract:

The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

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12917 Optimal Sizes of Energy Storage for Economic Operation Management

Authors: Rohalla Moghimi, Sirus Mohammadi

Abstract:

Batteries for storage of electricity from solar and wind generation farms are a key element in the success of sustainability. In recent years, due to large integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) like wind turbine and photovoltaic unit into the Micro-Grid (MG), the necessity of Battery Energy Storage (BES) has increased dramatically. The BES has several benefits and advantages in the MG-based applications such as short term power supply, power quality improvement, facilitating integration of RES, ancillary service and arbitrage. This paper presents the cost-based formulation to determine the optimal size of the BES in the operation management of MG. Also, some restrictions, i.e. power capacity of Distributed Generators (DGs), power and energy capacity of BES, charge/discharge efficiency of BES, operating reserve and load demand satisfaction should be considered as well. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the optimal allocation and economic analysis of ESS in MGs on the basis of net present value (NPV). As the optimal operation of an MG strongly depends on the arrangement and allocation of its ESS, economic operation strategies and optimal allocation methods of the ESS devices are required for the MG.

Keywords: microgrid, energy storage system, optimal sizing, net present value

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12916 Study of Cavitation Phenomena Based on Flow Visualization Test in 3-Way Reversing Valve

Authors: Hyo Lim Kang, Tae An Kim, Seung Ho Han

Abstract:

A 3-way reversing valve has been used in automotive washing machines to remove remaining oil and dirt on machined engine and transmission blocks. It provides rapid and accurate changes of water flow direction without any precise control device. However, due to its complicated bottom-plug shape, a cavitation occurs in a wide range of the bottom-plug in a downstream. In this study, the cavitation index and POC (percent of cavitation) were used to evaluate quantitatively the cavitation phenomena occurring at the bottom-plug. An optimal shape design was carried out via parametric study for geometries of the bottom-plug, in which a simple CAE-model was used in order to avoid time-consuming CFD analysis and hard to achieve convergence. To verify the results of numerical analysis, a flow visualization test was carried out using a test specimen with a transparent acryl pipe according to ISA-RP75.23. The flow characteristics such as the cavitation occurring in the downstream were investigated by using a flow test equipment with valve and pump including a flow control system and high-speed camera.

Keywords: cavitation, flow visualization test, optimal shape design, percent of cavitation, reversing valve

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12915 Optimization of Two Quality Characteristics in Injection Molding Processes via Taguchi Methodology

Authors: Joseph C. Chen, Venkata Karthik Jakka

Abstract:

The main objective of this research is to optimize tensile strength and dimensional accuracy in injection molding processes using Taguchi Parameter Design. An L16 orthogonal array (OA) is used in Taguchi experimental design with five control factors at four levels each and with non-controllable factor vibration. A total of 32 experiments were designed to obtain the optimal parameter setting for the process. The optimal parameters identified for the shrinkage are shot volume, 1.7 cubic inch (A4); mold term temperature, 130 ºF (B1); hold pressure, 3200 Psi (C4); injection speed, 0.61 inch3/sec (D2); and hold time of 14 seconds (E2). The optimal parameters identified for the tensile strength are shot volume, 1.7 cubic inch (A4); mold temperature, 160 ºF (B4); hold pressure, 3100 Psi (C3); injection speed, 0.69 inch3/sec (D4); and hold time of 14 seconds (E2). The Taguchi-based optimization framework was systematically and successfully implemented to obtain an adjusted optimal setting in this research. The mean shrinkage of the confirmation runs is 0.0031%, and the tensile strength value was found to be 3148.1 psi. Both outcomes are far better results from the baseline, and defects have been further reduced in injection molding processes.

Keywords: injection molding processes, taguchi parameter design, tensile strength, high-density polyethylene(HDPE)

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12914 Comparative Study Performance of the Induction Motor between SMC and NLC Modes Control

Authors: A. Oukaci, R. Toufouti, D. Dib, l. Atarsia

Abstract:

This article presents a multitude of alternative techniques to control the vector control, namely the nonlinear control and sliding mode control. Moreover, the implementation of their control law applied to the high-performance to the induction motor with the objective to improve the tracking control, ensure stability robustness to parameter variations and disturbance rejection. Tests are performed numerical simulations in the Matlab/Simulink interface, the results demonstrate the efficiency and dynamic performance of the proposed strategy.

Keywords: Induction Motor (IM), Non-linear Control (NLC), Sliding Mode Control (SMC), nonlinear sliding surface

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12913 Updating Stochastic Hosting Capacity Algorithm for Voltage Optimization Programs and Interconnect Standards

Authors: Nicholas Burica, Nina Selak

Abstract:

The ADHCAT (Automated Distribution Hosting Capacity Assessment Tool) was designed to run Hosting Capacity Analysis on the ComEd system via a stochastic DER (Distributed Energy Resource) placement on multiple power flow simulations against a set of violation criteria. The violation criteria in the initial version of the tool captured a limited amount of issues that individual departments design against for DER interconnections. Enhancements were made to the tool to further align with individual department violation and operation criteria, as well as the addition of new modules for use for future load profile analysis. A reporting engine was created for future analytical use based on the simulations and observations in the tool.

Keywords: distributed energy resources, hosting capacity, interconnect, voltage optimization

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12912 Optimal Maintenance Policy for a Partially Observable Two-Unit System

Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, G. B. Akram Khaleghei

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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1, which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM, has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, semi-Markov decision process, multivariate Bayesian control chart, partially observable system, two-unit system

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12911 A Hierarchical Bayesian Calibration of Data-Driven Models for Composite Laminate Consolidation

Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

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Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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12910 A Case Study of Limited Dynamic Voltage Frequency Scaling in Low-Power Processors

Authors: Hwan Su Jung, Ahn Jun Gil, Jong Tae Kim

Abstract:

Power management techniques are necessary to save power in the microprocessor. By changing the frequency and/or operating voltage of processor, DVFS can control power consumption. In this paper, we perform a case study to find optimal power state transition for DVFS. We propose the equation to find the optimal ratio between executions of states while taking into account the deadline of processing time and the power state transition delay overhead. The experiment is performed on the Cortex-M4 processor, and average 6.5% power saving is observed when DVFS is applied under the deadline condition.

Keywords: deadline, dynamic voltage frequency scaling, power state transition

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12909 The Non-Uniqueness of Partial Differential Equations Options Price Valuation Formula for Heston Stochastic Volatility Model

Authors: H. D. Ibrahim, H. C. Chinwenyi, T. Danjuma

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An option is defined as a financial contract that provides the holder the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a specified quantity of an underlying asset in the future at a fixed price (called a strike price) on or before the expiration date of the option. This paper examined two approaches for derivation of Partial Differential Equation (PDE) options price valuation formula for the Heston stochastic volatility model. We obtained various PDE option price valuation formulas using the riskless portfolio method and the application of Feynman-Kac theorem respectively. From the results obtained, we see that the two derived PDEs for Heston model are distinct and non-unique. This establishes the fact of incompleteness in the model for option price valuation.

Keywords: Black-Scholes partial differential equations, Ito process, option price valuation, partial differential equations

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12908 Resource Constrained Time-Cost Trade-Off Analysis in Construction Project Planning and Control

Authors: Sangwon Han, Chengquan Jin

Abstract:

Time-cost trade-off (TCTO) is one of the most significant part of construction project management. Despite the significance, current TCTO analysis, based on the Critical Path Method, does not consider resource constraint, and accordingly sometimes generates an impractical and/or infeasible schedule planning in terms of resource availability. Therefore, resource constraint needs to be considered when doing TCTO analysis. In this research, genetic algorithms (GA) based optimization model is created in order to find the optimal schedule. This model is utilized to compare four distinct scenarios (i.e., 1) initial CPM, 2) TCTO without considering resource constraint, 3) resource allocation after TCTO, and 4) TCTO with considering resource constraint) in terms of duration, cost, and resource utilization. The comparison results identify that ‘TCTO with considering resource constraint’ generates the optimal schedule with the respect of duration, cost, and resource. This verifies the need for consideration of resource constraint when doing TCTO analysis. It is expected that the proposed model will produce more feasible and optimal schedule.

Keywords: time-cost trade-off, genetic algorithms, critical path, resource availability

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12907 Parking Space Detection and Trajectory Tracking Control for Vehicle Auto-Parking

Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Yu-Sheng Hsu

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On-board available parking space detecting system, parking trajectory planning and tracking control mechanism are the key components of vehicle backward auto-parking system. Firstly, pair of ultrasonic sensors is installed on each side of vehicle body surface to detect the relative distance between ego-car and surrounding obstacle. The dimension of a found empty space can be calculated based on vehicle speed and the time history of ultrasonic sensor detecting information. This result can be used for constructing the 2D vehicle environmental map and available parking type judgment. Finally, the auto-parking controller executes the on-line optimal parking trajectory planning based on this 2D environmental map, and monitors the real-time vehicle parking trajectory tracking control. This low cost auto-parking system was tested on a model car.

Keywords: vehicle auto-parking, parking space detection, parking path tracking control, intelligent fuzzy controller

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12906 Parametrical Simulation of Sheet Metal Forming Process to Control the Localized Thinning

Authors: Hatem Mrad, Alban Notin, Mohamed Bouazara

Abstract:

Sheet metal forming process has a multiple successive steps starting from sheets fixation to sheets evacuation. Often after forming operation, the sheet has defects requiring additional corrections steps. For example, in the drawing process, the formed sheet may have several defects such as springback, localized thinning and bends. All these defects are directly dependent on process, geometric and material parameters. The prediction and elimination of these defects requires the control of most sensitive parameters. The present study is concerned with a reliable parametric study of deep forming process in order to control the localized thinning. The proposed approach will be based on stochastic finite element method. Especially, the polynomial Chaos development will be used to establish a reliable relationship between input (process, geometric and material parameters) and output variables (sheet thickness). The commercial software Abaqus is used to conduct numerical finite elements simulations. The automatized parametrical modification is provided by coupling a FORTRAN routine, a PYTHON script and input Abaqus files.

Keywords: sheet metal forming, reliability, localized thinning, parametric simulation

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12905 Valuing Social Sustainability in Agriculture: An Approach Based on Social Outputs’ Shadow Prices

Authors: Amer Ait Sidhoum

Abstract:

Interest in sustainability has gained ground among practitioners, academics and policy-makers due to growing stakeholders’ awareness of environmental and social concerns. This is particularly true for agriculture. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the quantification of social sustainability and the contribution of social issues to the agricultural production efficiency. This research's main objective is to propose a method for evaluating prices of social outputs, more precisely shadow prices, by allowing for the stochastic nature of agricultural production that is to say for production uncertainty. In this article, the assessment of social outputs’ shadow prices is conducted within the methodological framework of nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). An output-oriented directional distance function (DDF) is implemented to represent the technology of a sample of Catalan arable crop farms and derive the efficiency scores the overall production technology of our sample is assumed to be the intersection of two different sub-technologies. The first sub-technology models the production of random desirable agricultural outputs, while the second sub-technology reflects the social outcomes from agricultural activities. Once a nonparametric production technology has been represented, the DDF primal approach can be used for efficiency measurement, while shadow prices are drawn from the dual representation of the DDF. Computing shadow prices is a method to assign an economic value to non-marketed social outcomes. Our research uses cross sectional, farm-level data collected in 2015 from a sample of 180 Catalan arable crop farms specialized in the production of cereals, oilseeds and protein (COP) crops. Our results suggest that our sample farms show high performance scores, from 85% for the bad state of nature to 88% for the normal and ideal crop growing conditions. This suggests that farm performance is increasing with an improvement in crop growth conditions. Results also show that average shadow prices of desirable state-contingent output and social outcomes for efficient and inefficient farms are positive, suggesting that the production of desirable marketable outputs and of non-marketable outputs makes a positive contribution to the farm production efficiency. Results also indicate that social outputs’ shadow prices are contingent upon the growing conditions. The shadow prices follow an upward trend as crop-growing conditions improve. This finding suggests that these efficient farms prefer to allocate more resources in the production of desirable outputs than of social outcomes. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to compute shadow prices of social outcomes while accounting for the stochastic nature of the production technology. Our findings suggest that the decision-making process of the efficient farms in dealing with social issues are stochastic and strongly dependent on the growth conditions. This implies that policy-makers should adjust their instruments according to the stochastic environmental conditions. An optimal redistribution of rural development support, by increasing the public payment with the improvement in crop growth conditions, would likely enhance the effectiveness of public policies.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, shadow prices, social sustainability, sustainable farming

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12904 Autonomous Flight Control for Multirotor by Alternative Input Output State Linearization with Nested Saturations

Authors: Yong Eun Yoon, Eric N. Johnson, Liling Ren

Abstract:

Multirotor is one of the most popular types of small unmanned aircraft systems and has already been used in many areas including transport, military, surveillance, and leisure. Together with its popularity, the needs for proper flight control is growing because in most applications it is required to conduct its missions autonomously, which is in many aspects based on autonomous flight control. There have been many studies about the flight control for multirotor, but there is still room for enhancements in terms of performance and efficiency. This paper presents an autonomous flight control method for multirotor based on alternative input output linearization coupled with nested saturations. With alternative choice of the output of the multirotor flight control system, we can reduce computational cost regarding Lie algebra, and the linearized system can be stabilized with the introduction of nested saturations with real poles of our own design. Stabilization of internal dynamics is also based on the nested saturations and accompanies the determination of part of desired states. In particular, outer control loops involving state variables which originally are not included in the output of the flight control system is naturally rendered through this internal dynamics stabilization. We can also observe that desired tilting angles are determined by error dynamics from outer loops. Simulation results show that in any tracking situations multirotor stabilizes itself with small time constants, preceded by tuning process for control parameters with relatively low degree of complexity. Future study includes control of piecewise linear behavior of multirotor with actuator saturations, and the optimal determination of desired states while tracking multiple waypoints.

Keywords: automatic flight control, input output linearization, multirotor, nested saturations

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12903 Optimal Parameters of Two-Color Ionizing Laser Pulses for Terahertz Generation

Authors: I. D. Laryushin, V. A. Kostin, A. A. Silaev, N. V. Vvedenskii

Abstract:

Generation of broadband intense terahertz (THz) radiation attracts reasonable interest due to various applications, such as the THz time-domain spectroscopy, the probing and control of various ultrafast processes, the THz imaging with subwavelength resolution, and many others. One of the most promising methods for generating powerful and broadband terahertz pulses is based on focusing two-color femtosecond ionizing laser pulses in gases, including ambient air. For this method, the amplitudes of terahertz pulses are determined by the free-electron current density remaining in a formed plasma after the passage of the laser pulse. The excitation of this residual current density can be treated as multi-wave mixing: Аn effective generation of terahertz radiation is possible only when the frequency ratio of one-color components in the two-color pulse is close to irreducible rational fraction a/b with small odd sum a + b. This work focuses on the optimal parameters (polarizations and intensities) of laser components for the strongest THz generation. The optimal values of parameters are found numerically and analytically with the use of semiclassical approach for calculating the residual current density. For frequency ratios close to a/(a ± 1) with natural a, the strongest THz generation is shown to take place when the both laser components have circular polarizations and equal intensities. For this optimal case, an analytical formula for the residual current density was derived. For the frequency ratios such as 2/5, the two-color ionizing pulses with circularly polarized components practically do not excite the residual current density. However, the optimal parameters correspond generally to specific elliptical (not linear) polarizations of the components and intensity ratios close to unity.

Keywords: broadband terahertz radiation, ionization, laser plasma, ultrashort two-color pulses

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12902 The Strategic Entering Time of a Commerce Platform

Authors: Chia-li Wang

Abstract:

The surge of service and commerce platforms, such as e-commerce and internet-of-things, have rapidly changed our lives. How to avoid the congestion and get the job done in the platform is now a common problem that many people encounter every day. This requires platform users to make decisions about when to enter the platform. To that end, we investigate the strategic entering time of a simple platform containing random numbers of buyers and sellers of some item. Upon a trade, the buyer and the seller gain respective profits, yet they pay the cost of waiting in the platform. To maximize their expected payoffs from trading, both buyers and sellers can choose their entering times. This creates an interesting and practical framework of a game that is played among buyers, among sellers, and between them. That is, a strategy employed by a player is not only against players of its type but also a response to those of the other type, and, thus, a strategy profile is composed of strategies of buyers and sellers. The players' best response, the Nash equilibrium (NE) strategy profile, is derived by a pair of differential equations, which, in turn, are used to establish its existence and uniqueness. More importantly, its structure sheds valuable insights of how the entering strategy of one side (buyers or sellers) is affected by the entering behavior of the other side. These results provide a base for the study of dynamic pricing for stochastic demand-supply imbalances. Finally, comparisons between the social welfares (the sum of the payoffs incurred by individual participants) obtained by the optimal strategy and by the NE strategy are conducted for showing the efficiency loss relative to the socially optimal solution. That should help to manage the platform better.

Keywords: double-sided queue, non-cooperative game, nash equilibrium, price of anarchy

Procedia PDF Downloads 63