Search results for: rank estimates

Authors: Andrew D. Henshaw, James M. Austin

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Introduction: Human trafficking is an increasingly serious transnational criminal enterprise and social security issue. Despite ongoing efforts to mitigate the phenomenon and a significant expansion of security scrutiny over past decades, it is not receding. This is true for many nations in Southeast Asia, widely recognized as the global hub for trafficked persons, including men, women, and children. Clearly, human trafficking is difficult to address because there are numerous drivers, causes, and motivators for it to persist, such as non-military and non-traditional security challenges, i.e., climate change, global warming displacement, and natural disasters. These make displaced persons and refugees particularly vulnerable. The issue is so large conservative estimates put a dollar value at around $150 billion-plus per year (Niethammer, 2020) spanning sexual slavery and exploitation, forced labor, construction, mining and in conflict roles, and forced marriages of girls and women. Coupled with corruption throughout military, police, and civil authorities around the world, and the active hands of powerful transnational criminal organizations, it is likely that such figures are grossly underestimated as human trafficking is misreported, under-detected, and deliberately obfuscated to protect those profiting from it. For example, the 2022 UN report on human trafficking shows a 56% reduction in convictions in that year alone (UNODC, 2022). Our Approach: To better understand this, our research utilizes a bespoke methodology. Applying a JAM (Juxtaposition Assessment Matrix), which we previously developed to detect flows of dark money around the globe (Henshaw, A & Austin, J, 2021), we now focus on the human trafficking paradigm. Indeed, utilizing a JAM methodology has identified key indicators of human trafficking not previously explored in depth. Being a set of structured analytical techniques that provide panoramic interpretations of the subject matter, this iteration of the JAM further incorporates behavioral and driver indicators, including the employment of Open-Source Artificial Intelligence (OS-AI) across multiple collection points. The extracted behavioral data was then applied to identify non-traditional indicators as they contribute to human trafficking. Furthermore, as the JAM OS-AI analyses data from the inverted position, i.e., the viewpoint of the traffickers, it examines the behavioral and physical traits required to succeed. This transposed examination of the requirements of success delivers potential leverage points for exploitation in the fight against human trafficking in a new and novel way. Findings: Our approach identified new innovative datasets that have previously been overlooked or, at best, undervalued. For example, the JAM OS-AI approach identified critical 'dark agent' lynchpins within human trafficking that are difficult to detect and harder to connect to actors and agents within a network. Our preliminary data suggests this is in part due to the fact that ‘dark agents’ in extant research have been difficult to detect and potentially much harder to directly connect to the actors and organizations in human trafficking networks. Our research demonstrates that using new investigative techniques such as OS-AI-aided JAM introduces a powerful toolset to increase understanding of human trafficking and transnational crime and illuminate networks that, to date, avoid global law enforcement scrutiny.

Keywords: human trafficking, open-source intelligence, transnational crime, human security, international human rights, intelligence analysis, JAM OS-AI, Dark Money

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Authors: Helena Pera, Arcadi Sanmartin, Albert Falques, Rafael Rebolo, Xavier Ametller, Heiko Zillgen, Cecile Prum, Boris Even, Eric Kapornyai

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Sheet piles system can be an interesting solution when dealing with harbors or quays designs. However, current design methods lead to conservative approaches due to the lack of specific basis of design. For instance, some design features still deal with pseudo-static approaches, although being a dynamic problem. Under this concern, the study particularly focuses on hydrodynamic water pressure definition and stability analysis of sheet pile system under seismic loads. During a seismic event, seawater produces hydrodynamic pressures on structures. Currently, design methods introduce hydrodynamic forces by means of Westergaard formulation and Eurocodes recommendations. They apply constant hydrodynamic pressure on the front sheet pile during the entire earthquake. As a result, the hydrodynamic load may represent 20% of the total forces produced on the sheet pile. Nonetheless, some studies question that approach. Hence, this study assesses the soil-structure-fluid interaction of sheet piles under seismic action in order to evaluate if current design strategies overestimate hydrodynamic pressures. For that purpose, this study performs various simulations by Plaxis 2D, a well-known geotechnical software, and CFD models, which treat fluid dynamic behaviours. Knowing that neither Plaxis nor CFD can resolve a soil-fluid coupled problem, the investigation imposes sheet pile displacements from Plaxis as input data for the CFD model. Then, it provides hydrodynamic pressures under seismic action, which fit theoretical Westergaard pressures if calculated using the acceleration at each moment of the earthquake. Thus, hydrodynamic pressures fluctuate during seismic action instead of remaining constant, as design recommendations propose. Additionally, these findings detect that hydrodynamic pressure contributes a 5% to the total load applied on sheet pile due to its instantaneous nature. These results are in line with other studies that use added masses methods for hydrodynamic pressures. Another important feature in sheet pile design is the assessment of the geotechnical overall stability. It uses pseudo-static analysis since the dynamic analysis cannot provide a safety calculation. Consequently, it estimates the seismic action. One of its relevant factors is the selection of the seismic reduction factor. A huge amount of studies discusses the importance of it but also about all its uncertainties. Moreover, current European standards do not propose a clear statement on that, and they recommend using a reduction factor equal to 1. This leads to conservative requirements when compared with more advanced methods. Under this situation, the study calibrates seismic reduction factor by fitting results from pseudo-static to dynamic analysis. The investigation concludes that pseudo-static analyses could reduce seismic action by 40-50%. These results are in line with some studies from Japanese and European working groups. In addition, it seems suitable to account for the flexibility of the sheet pile-soil system. Nevertheless, the calibrated reduction factor is subjected to particular conditions of each design case. Further research would contribute to specifying recommendations for selecting reduction factor values in the early stages of the design. In conclusion, sheet pile design still has chances for improving its design methodologies and approaches. Consequently, design could propose better seismic solutions thanks to advanced methods such as findings of this study.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, hydrodynamic pressures, pseudo-static analysis, quays, seismic design, steel sheet pile

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Authors: Patricia Shirley Almeida Prado, Liz Brito, Selma Paixão Argollo, Gracie Moreira, Leticia Matos Sobrinho

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Diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) is a degenerative bone disease also known as Forestier´s disease and ankylosing hyperostosis of the spine is characterized by a tendency toward ossification of half the anterior longitudinal spinal ligament without intervertebral disc disease. DISH is not considered to be osteoarthritis, although the two conditions commonly occur together. Diagnostic criteria include fusion of at least four vertebrae by bony bridges arising from the anterolateral aspect of the vertebral bodies. These vertebral bodies have a 'dripping candle wax' appearance, also can be seen periosteal new bone formation on the anterior surface of the vertebral bodies and there is no ankylosis at zygoapophyseal facet joint. Clinically, patients with DISH tend to be asymptomatic some patients mention moderate pain and stiffness in upper back. This disease is more common in man, uncommon in patients younger than 50 years and rare in patients under 40 years old. In modern populations, DISH is found in association with obesity, (type II) diabetes; abnormal vitamin A metabolism and also associated with higher levels of serum uric acid. There is also some association between the increase of risk of stroke or other cerebrovascular disease. The DISH condition can be confused with Heterotopic Ossification, what is the bone formation in the soft tissues as the result of trauma, wounding, surgery, burnings, prolonged immobility and some central nervous system disorder. All these conditions have been described extensively as myositis ossificans which can be confused with the fibrodysplasia (myositis) ossificans progressive. As in the DISH symptomatology it can be asymptomatic or extensive enough to impair joint function. A third confusion osteoarthritis disease that can bring confusion are the enthesopathies that occur in the entire skeleton being common on the ischial tuberosities, iliac crests, patellae, and calcaneus. Ankylosis of the sacroiliac joint by bony bridges may also be found. CASE 1: this case is skeletal remains presenting skull, some vertebrae and scapulae. This case remains unidentified and due to lack of bone remains. Sex, age and ancestry profile was compromised, however the DISH pathognomonic findings and diagnostic helps to estimate sex and age characteristics. Moreover to presenting DISH these skeletal remains also showed some bone alterations and non-metrics as fusion of the first vertebrae with occipital bone, maxillae and palatine torus and scapular foramen on the right scapulae. CASE 2: this skeleton remains shows an extensive bone heterotopic ossification on the great trochanter area of left femur, right fibula showed a healed fracture in its body however in its inteosseous crest there is an extensive bone growth, also in the Ilium at the region of inferior gluteal line can be observed some pronounced bone growth and the skull presented a pronounced mandibular, maxillary and palatine torus. Despite all these pronounced heterotopic ossification the whole skeleton presents moderate bone overgrowth that is not linked with aging, since the skeleton belongs to a young unidentified individual. The appropriate osteopathological diagnosis support the human identification process through medical reports and also assist with epidemiological data that can strengthen vulnerable anthropological estimates.

Keywords: bone disease, DISH, human identification, human remains

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Authors: Parag Katira, Frederika Rentzeperis, Zuzanna Nowicka, Giada Fiandaca, Thomas Veith, Jack Farinhas, Noemi Andor

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Resource limitations shape the outcome of competitions between genetically heterogeneous pre-malignant cells. One example of such heterogeneity is in the ploidy (DNA content) of pre-malignant cells. A whole-genome duplication (WGD) transforms a diploid cell into a tetraploid one and has been detected in 28-56% of human cancers. If a tetraploid subclone expands, it consistently does so early in tumor evolution, when cell density is still low, and competition for nutrients is comparatively weak – an observation confirmed for several tumor types. WGD+ cells need more resources to synthesize increasing amounts of DNA, RNA, and proteins. To quantify resource limitations and how they relate to ploidy, we performed a PAN cancer analysis of WGD, PET/CT, and MRI scans. Segmentation of >20 different organs from >900 PET/CT scans were performed with MOOSE. We observed a strong correlation between organ-wide population-average estimates of Oxygen and the average ploidy of cancers growing in the respective organ (Pearson R = 0.66; P= 0.001). In-vitro experiments using near-diploid and near-tetraploid lineages derived from a breast cancer cell line supported the hypothesis that DNA content influences Glucose- and Oxygen-dependent proliferation-, death- and migration rates. To model how subpopulations with variable DNA content compete in the resource-limited environment of the human brain, we developed a stochastic state-space model of the brain (S3MB). The model discretizes the brain into voxels, whereby the state of each voxel is defined by 8+ variables that are updated over time: stiffness, Oxygen, phosphate, glucose, vasculature, dead cells, migrating cells and proliferating cells of various DNA content, and treat conditions such as radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Well-established Fokker-Planck partial differential equations govern the distribution of resources and cells across voxels. We applied S3MB on sequencing and imaging data obtained from a primary GBM patient. We performed whole genome sequencing (WGS) of four surgical specimens collected during the 1ˢᵗ and 2ⁿᵈ surgeries of the GBM and used HATCHET to quantify its clonal composition and how it changes between the two surgeries. HATCHET identified two aneuploid subpopulations of ploidy 1.98 and 2.29, respectively. The low-ploidy clone was dominant at the time of the first surgery and became even more dominant upon recurrence. MRI images were available before and after each surgery and registered to MNI space. The S3MB domain was initiated from 4mm³ voxels of the MNI space. T1 post and T2 flair scan acquired after the 1ˢᵗ surgery informed tumor cell densities per voxel. Magnetic Resonance Elastography scans and PET/CT scans informed stiffness and Glucose access per voxel. We performed a parameter search to recapitulate the GBM’s tumor cell density and ploidy composition before the 2ⁿᵈ surgery. Results suggest that the high-ploidy subpopulation had a higher Glucose-dependent proliferation rate (0.70 vs. 0.49), but a lower Glucose-dependent death rate (0.47 vs. 1.42). These differences resulted in spatial differences in the distribution of the two subpopulations. Our results contribute to a better understanding of how genomics and microenvironments interact to shape cell fate decisions and could help pave the way to therapeutic strategies that mimic prognostically favorable environments.

Keywords: tumor evolution, intra-tumor heterogeneity, whole-genome doubling, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Jun Wang, Chenglei Diao, Emanuele Pagone, Jialuo Ding, Stewart Williams

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As a crucial component in aircraft, landing gear systems are responsible for supporting the plane during parking, taxiing, takeoff, and landing. Given the need for high load-bearing capacity over extended periods, 300M ultra-high strength steel (UHSS) is often the material of choice for crafting these systems due to its exceptional strength, toughness, and fatigue resistance. In the quest for cost-effective and sustainable manufacturing solutions, Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) emerges as a promising alternative for fabricating 300M UHSS landing gears. This is due to its advantages in near-net-shape forming of large components, cost-efficiency, and reduced lead times. Cranfield University has conducted an extensive preliminary study on WAAM 300M UHSS, covering feature deposition, interface analysis, and post-heat treatment. Both Gas Metal Arc (GMA) and Plasma Transferred Arc (PTA)-based WAAM methods were explored, revealing their feasibility for defect-free manufacturing. However, as-deposited 300M features showed lower strength but higher ductility compared to their forged counterparts. Subsequent post-heat treatments were effective in normalising the microstructure and mechanical properties, meeting qualification standards. A 300M UHSS landing gear demonstrator was successfully created using PTA-based WAAM, showcasing the method's precision and cost-effectiveness. The demonstrator, measuring Ф200mm x 700mm, was completed in 16 hours, using 7 kg of material at a deposition rate of 1.3kg/hr. This resulted in a significant reduction in the Buy-to-Fly (BTF) ratio compared to traditional manufacturing methods, further validating WAAM's potential for this application. A "cradle-to-gate" environmental impact assessment, which considers the cumulative effects from raw material extraction to customer shipment, has revealed promising outcomes. Utilising Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) for landing gear components significantly reduces the need for raw material extraction and refinement compared to traditional subtractive methods. This, in turn, lessens the burden on subsequent manufacturing processes, including heat treatment, machining, and transportation. Our estimates indicate that the carbon footprint of the component could be halved when switching from traditional machining to WAAM. Similar reductions are observed in embodied energy consumption and other environmental impact indicators, such as emissions to air, water, and land. Additionally, WAAM offers the unique advantage of part repair by redepositing only the necessary material, a capability not available through conventional methods. Our research shows that WAAM-based repairs can drastically reduce environmental impact, even when accounting for additional transportation for repairs. Consequently, WAAM emerges as a pivotal technology for reducing environmental impact in manufacturing, aiding the industry in its crucial and ambitious journey towards Net Zero. This study paves the way for transformative benefits across the aerospace industry, as we integrate manufacturing into a hybrid solution that offers substantial savings and access to more sustainable technologies for critical component production.

Keywords: WAAM, aircraft landing gear, microstructure, mechanical performance, life cycle assessment

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Authors: Simon J. Wilde, David M. Herold, Michael J. Bryant

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Social media networks have become the hotbed for advertising activities, due mainly to their increasing consumer/user base, and secondly, owing to the ability of marketers to accurately measure ad exposure and consumer-based insights on such networks. More than half of the world’s population (4.8 billion) now uses social media (60%), with 150 million new users having come online within the last 12 months (to June 2022). As the use of social media networks by users grows, key business strategies used for interacting with these potential customers have matured, especially social media advertising. Unlike other traditional media outlets, social media advertising is highly interactive and digital channel-specific. Social media advertisements are clearly targetable, providing marketers with an extremely powerful marketing tool. Yet despite the measurable benefits afforded to businesses engaged in social media advertising, recent controversies (such as the relationship between Facebook and Cambridge Analytica in 2018) have only heightened the role trust and privacy play within these social media networks. The purpose of this exploratory paper is to investigate the extent to which social media users trust social media advertising. Understanding this relationship will fundamentally assist marketers in better understanding social media interactions and their implications for society. Using a web-based quantitative survey instrument, survey participants were recruited via a reputable online panel survey site. Respondents to the survey represented social media users from all states and territories within Australia. Completed responses were received from a total of 258 social media users. Survey respondents represented all core age demographic groupings, including Gen Z/Millennials (18-45 years = 60.5% of respondents) and Gen X/Boomers (46-66+ years = 39.5% of respondents). An adapted ADTRUST scale, using a 20 item 7-point Likert scale, measured trust in social media advertising. The ADTRUST scale has been shown to be a valid measure of trust in advertising within traditional different media, such as broadcast media and print media, and more recently, the Internet (as a broader platform). The adapted scale was validated through exploratory factor analysis (EFA), resulting in a three-factor solution. These three factors were named reliability, usefulness and affect, and the willingness to rely on. Factor scores (weighted measures) were then calculated for these factors. Factor scores are estimates of the scores survey participants would have received on each of the factors had they been measured directly, with the following results recorded (Reliability = 4.68/7; Usefulness and Affect = 4.53/7; and Willingness to Rely On = 3.94/7). Further statistical analysis (independent samples t-test) determined the difference in factor scores between the factors when age (Gen Z/Millennials vs. Gen X/Boomers) was utilised as the independent, categorical variable. The results showed the difference in mean scores across all three factors to be statistically significant (p<0.05) for these two core age groupings: Gen Z/Millennials Reliability = 4.90/7 vs Gen X/Boomers Reliability = 4.34/7; Gen Z/Millennials Usefulness and Affect = 4.85/7 vs Gen X/Boomers Usefulness and Affect = 4.05/7; and Gen Z/Millennials Willingness to Rely On = 4.53/7 vs Gen X/Boomers Willingness to Rely On = 3.03/7. The results clearly indicate that older social media users lack trust in the quality of information conveyed in social media ads, when compared to younger, more social media-savvy consumers. This is especially evident with respect to Factor 3 (Willingness to Rely On), whose underlying variables reflect one’s behavioural intent to act based on the information conveyed in advertising. These findings can be useful to marketers, advertisers, and brand managers in that the results highlight a critical need to design ‘authentic’ advertisements on social media sites to better connect with these older users, in an attempt to foster positive behavioural responses from within this large demographic group – whose engagement with social media sites continues to increase year on year.

Keywords: social media advertising, trust, older consumers, online

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Authors: Denis Jordan, Daniel Golkowski, Mathias Lukas, Katharina Merz, Caroline Mlynarcik, Max Maurer, Valentin Riedl, Stefan Foerster, Eberhard F. Kochs, Andreas Bender, Ruediger Ilg

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Introduction: So far, clinical assessments that rely on behavioral responses to differentiate coma states or even predict outcome in coma patients are unreliable, e.g. because of some patients’ motor disabilities. The present study was aimed to provide prognosis in coma patients using markers from electroencephalogram (EEG), blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET). Unsuperwised principal component analysis (PCA) was used for multimodal integration of markers. Methods: Approved by the local ethics committee of the Technical University of Munich (Germany) 20 patients (aged 18-89) with severe brain damage were acquired through intensive care units at the Klinikum rechts der Isar in Munich and at the Therapiezentrum Burgau (Germany). At the day of EEG/fMRI/PET measurement (date I) patients (<3.5 month in coma) were grouped in the minimal conscious state (MCS) or vegetative state (VS) on the basis of their clinical presentation (coma recovery scale-revised, CRS-R). Follow-up assessment (date II) was also based on CRS-R in a period of 8 to 24 month after date I. At date I, 63 channel EEG (Brain Products, Gilching, Germany) was recorded outside the scanner, and subsequently simultaneous FDG-PET/fMRI was acquired on an integrated Siemens Biograph mMR 3T scanner (Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen Germany). Power spectral densities, permutation entropy (PE) and symbolic transfer entropy (STE) were calculated in/between frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital EEG channels. PE and STE are based on symbolic time series analysis and were already introduced as robust markers separating wakefulness from unconsciousness in EEG during general anesthesia. While PE quantifies the regularity structure of the neighboring order of signal values (a surrogate of cortical information processing), STE reflects information transfer between two signals (a surrogate of directed connectivity in cortical networks). fMRI was carried out using SPM12 (Wellcome Trust Center for Neuroimaging, University of London, UK). Functional images were realigned, segmented, normalized and smoothed. PET was acquired for 45 minutes in list-mode. For absolute quantification of brain’s glucose consumption rate in FDG-PET, kinetic modelling was performed with Patlak’s plot method. BOLD signal intensity in fMRI and glucose uptake in PET was calculated in 8 distinct cortical areas. PCA was performed over all markers from EEG/fMRI/PET. Prognosis (persistent VS and deceased patients vs. recovery to MCS/awake from date I to date II) was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) including bootstrap confidence intervals (CI, *: p<0.05). Results: Prognosis was reliably indicated by the first component of PCA (AUC=0.99*, CI=0.92-1.00) showing a higher AUC when compared to the best single markers (EEG: AUC<0.96*, fMRI: AUC<0.86*, PET: AUC<0.60). CRS-R did not show prediction (AUC=0.51, CI=0.29-0.78). Conclusion: In a multimodal analysis of EEG/fMRI/PET in coma patients, PCA lead to a reliable prognosis. The impact of this result is evident, as clinical estimates of prognosis are inapt at time and could be supported by quantitative biomarkers from EEG, fMRI and PET. Due to the small sample size, further investigations are required, in particular allowing superwised learning instead of the basic approach of unsuperwised PCA.

Keywords: coma states and prognosis, electroencephalogram, entropy, functional magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning, positron emission tomography, principal component analysis

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Authors: Nur A. Özdemir, Sude Erkin, Hatice K. Güney, Cemre S. Atılgan, Enes Huylu, Hüseyin Y. Altıntaş, Aysemin Top, Özak Durmuş

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Carbon emissions produced during a product’s life cycle, from extraction of raw materials up to waste disposal and market consumption activities are the major contributors to global warming. In the light of the science-based targets (SBT) leading the way to a zero-carbon economy for sustainable growth of the companies, carbon footprint reporting of the purchased goods has become critical for identifying hotspots and best practices for emission reduction opportunities. In line with Ford Otosan's corporate sustainability strategy, research was conducted to evaluate the carbon footprint of purchased products in accordance with Scope 3 of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG). The purpose of this paper is to develop a systematic and transparent methodology to calculate carbon footprint of the products produced by automotive OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) within the context of automobile supply chain management. To begin with, primary material data were collected through IMDS (International Material Database System) corresponds to company’s three distinct types of vehicles including Light Commercial Vehicle (Courier), Medium Commercial Vehicle (Transit and Transit Custom), Heavy Commercial Vehicle (F-MAX). Obtained material data was classified as metals, plastics, liquids, electronics, and others to get insights about the overall material distribution of produced vehicles and matched to the SimaPro Ecoinvent 3 database which is one of the most extent versions for modelling material data related to the product life cycle. Product life cycle analysis was calculated within the framework of ISO 14040 – 14044 standards by addressing the requirements and procedures. A comprehensive literature review and cooperation with suppliers were undertaken to identify the production methods of parts used in vehicles and to find out the amount of scrap generated during part production. Cumulative weight and material information with related production process belonging the components were listed by multiplying with current sales figures. The results of the study show a key modelling on carbon footprint of products and processes based on a scientific approach to drive sustainable growth by setting straightforward, science-based emission reduction targets. Hence, this study targets to identify the hotspots and correspondingly provide broad ideas about our understanding of how to integrate carbon footprint estimates into our company's supply chain management by defining convenient actions in line with climate science. According to emission values arising from the production phase including raw material extraction and material processing for Ford OTOSAN vehicles subjected in this study, GHG emissions from the production of metals used for HCV, MCV and LCV account for more than half of the carbon footprint of the vehicle's production. Correspondingly, aluminum and steel have the largest share among all material types and achieving carbon neutrality in the steel and aluminum industry is of great significance to the world, which will also present an immense impact on the automobile industry. Strategic product sustainability plan which includes the use of secondary materials, conversion to green energy and low-energy process design is required to reduce emissions of steel, aluminum, and plastics due to the projected increase in total volume by 2030.

Keywords: automotive, carbon footprint, IMDS, scope 3, SimaPro, sustainability

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Authors: Atish Bagchi, Siva Chandrasekaran

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Background: According to World Bank national accounts data, the estimated global manufacturing value-added output in 2020 was 13.74 trillion USD. These manufacturing processes are monitored, modelled, and controlled by advanced, real-time, computer-based systems, e.g., Industrial IoT, PLC, SCADA, etc. These systems measure and manipulate a set of physical variables, e.g., temperature, pressure, etc. Despite the use of IoT, SCADA etc., in manufacturing, studies suggest that unplanned downtime leads to economic losses of approximately 864 billion USD each year. Therefore, real-time, accurate detection, classification and prediction of machine behaviour are needed to minimise financial losses. Although vast literature exists on time-series data processing using machine learning, the challenges faced by the industries that lead to unplanned downtimes are: The current algorithms do not efficiently handle the high-volume streaming data from industrial IoTsensors and were tested on static and simulated datasets. While the existing algorithms can detect significant 'point' outliers, most do not handle contextual outliers (e.g., values within normal range but happening at an unexpected time of day) or subtle changes in machine behaviour. Machines are revamped periodically as part of planned maintenance programmes, which change the assumptions on which original AI models were created and trained. Aim: This research study aims to deliver a Graph Neural Network(GNN)based hybrid forecasting model that interfaces with the real-time machine control systemand can detect, predict machine behaviour and behavioural changes (anomalies) in real-time. This research will help manufacturing industries and utilities, e.g., water, electricity etc., reduce unplanned downtimes and consequential financial losses. Method: The data stored within a process control system, e.g., Industrial-IoT, Data Historian, is generally sampled during data acquisition from the sensor (source) and whenpersistingin the Data Historian to optimise storage and query performance. The sampling may inadvertently discard values that might contain subtle aspects of behavioural changes in machines. This research proposed a hybrid forecasting and classification model which combines the expressive and extrapolation capability of GNN enhanced with the estimates of entropy and spectral changes in the sampled data and additional temporal contexts to reconstruct the likely temporal trajectory of machine behavioural changes. The proposed real-time model belongs to the Deep Learning category of machine learning and interfaces with the sensors directly or through 'Process Data Historian', SCADA etc., to perform forecasting and classification tasks. Results: The model was interfaced with a Data Historianholding time-series data from 4flow sensors within a water treatment plantfor45 days. The recorded sampling interval for a sensor varied from 10 sec to 30 min. Approximately 65% of the available data was used for training the model, 20% for validation, and the rest for testing. The model identified the anomalies within the water treatment plant and predicted the plant's performance. These results were compared with the data reported by the plant SCADA-Historian system and the official data reported by the plant authorities. The model's accuracy was much higher (20%) than that reported by the SCADA-Historian system and matched the validated results declared by the plant auditors. Conclusions: The research demonstrates that a hybrid GNN based approach enhanced with entropy calculation and spectral information can effectively detect and predict a machine's behavioural changes. The model can interface with a plant's 'process control system' in real-time to perform forecasting and classification tasks to aid the asset management engineers to operate their machines more efficiently and reduce unplanned downtimes. A series of trialsare planned for this model in the future in other manufacturing industries.

Keywords: GNN, Entropy, anomaly detection, industrial time-series, AI, IoT, Industry 4.0, Machine Learning

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh, Bhabani Prasad Mukhopadhay, Ananya Mukhopadhyay, Harendra Nath Bhattacharya

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This study investigates the global issue of electronic waste (e-waste), focusing on its prevalence in India and other regions. E-waste has emerged as a significant worldwide problem, with India contributing a substantial share of annual e-waste generation. The primary sources of e-waste in India are computer equipment and mobile phones. Many developed nations utilize India as a dumping ground for their e-waste, with major contributions from the United States, China, Europe, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. The study identifies Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Mumbai, and Delhi as prominent contributors to India's e-waste crisis. This issue is contextualized within the broader framework of the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which encompasses 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 associated targets to address poverty, environmental preservation, and universal prosperity. The study underscores the interconnectedness of e-waste management with several SDGs, including health, clean water, economic growth, sustainable cities, responsible consumption, and ocean conservation. Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data reveals that e-waste generation surpasses that of plastic waste, increasing annually at a rate of 31%. However, only 20% of electronic waste is recycled through organized and regulated methods in underdeveloped nations. In Europe, efficient e-waste management stands at just 35%. E-waste pollution poses serious threats to soil, groundwater, and public health due to toxic components such as mercury, lead, bromine, and arsenic. Long-term exposure to these toxins, notably arsenic in microchips, has been linked to severe health issues, including cancer, neurological damage, and skin disorders. Lead exposure, particularly concerning for children, can result in brain damage, kidney problems, and blood disorders. The study highlights the problematic transboundary movement of e-waste, with approximately 352,474 metric tonnes of electronic waste illegally shipped from Europe to developing nations annually, mainly to Africa, including Nigeria, Ghana, and Tanzania. Effective e-waste management, underpinned by appropriate infrastructure, regulations, and policies, offers opportunities for job creation and aligns with the objectives of the 2030 Agenda for SDGs, especially in the realms of decent work, economic growth, and responsible production and consumption. E-waste represents hazardous pollutants and valuable secondary resources, making it a focal point for anthropogenic resource exploitation. The United Nations estimates that e-waste holds potential secondary raw materials worth around 55 billion Euros. The study also identifies numerous challenges in e-waste management, encompassing the sheer volume of e-waste, child labor, inadequate legislation, insufficient infrastructure, health concerns, lack of incentive schemes, limited awareness, e-waste imports, high costs associated with recycling plant establishment, and more. To mitigate these issues, the study offers several solutions, such as providing tax incentives for scrap dealers, implementing reward and reprimand systems for e-waste management compliance, offering training on e-waste handling, promoting responsible e-waste disposal, advancing recycling technologies, regulating e-waste imports, and ensuring the safe disposal of domestic e-waste. A mechanism, Buy-Back programs, will compensate customers in cash when they deposit unwanted digital products. This E-waste could contain any portable electronic device, such as cell phones, computers, tablets, etc. Addressing the e-waste predicament necessitates a multi-faceted approach involving government regulations, industry initiatives, public awareness campaigns, and international cooperation to minimize environmental and health repercussions while harnessing the economic potential of recycling and responsible management.

Keywords: e-waste management, sustainable development goal, e-waste disposal, recycling technology, buy-back policy

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