Search results for: estimating of trajectory

Authors: Dean Sinković, Tea Golja, Morena Paulišić

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Upon the end of the vicious war in former Yugoslavia in 1995, international development community widely promoted microfinance as the key development framework to eradicate poverty, create jobs, increase income. Widespread claims were made that microfinance institutions would play vital role in creating a bedrock for sustainable ‘bottom-up’ economic development trajectory, thus, helping newly formed states to find proper way from economic post-war depression. This uplifting neoliberal narrative has no empirical support in the Republic of Croatia. Firstly, the type of enterprises created via microfinance sector are small, unskilled, labor intensive, no technology and with huge debt burden. This results in extremely high failure rates of microenterprises and poor individuals plunging into even deeper poverty, acute indebtedness and social marginalization. Secondly, evidence shows that microcredit is exact reflection of dangerous and destructive sub-prime lending model with ‘boom-to-bust’ scenarios in which benefits are solely extracted by the tiny financial and political elite working around the microfinance sector. We argue that microcredit providers are not proper financial structures through which developing countries should look way out of underdevelopment and poverty. In order to achieve sustainable long-term growth goals, public policy needs to focus on creating, supporting and facilitating the small and mid-size enterprises development. These enterprises should be technically sophisticated, capable of creating new capabilities and innovations, with managerial expertise (skills formation) and inter-connected with other organizations (i.e. clusters, networks, supply chains, etc.). Evidence from South-East Europe suggest that such structures are not created via microfinance model but can be fostered through various forms of social enterprises. Various legal entities may operate as social enterprises: limited liability private company, limited liability public company, cooperative, associations, foundations, institutions, Mutual Insurances and Credit union. Our main hypothesis is that cooperatives are potential agents of social and economic transformation and community development in the region. Financial cooperatives are structures that can foster more efficient allocation of financial resources involving deeper democratic arrangements and more socially just outcomes. In Croatia, pioneers of the first social enterprises were civil society organizations whilst forming a separated legal entity. (i.e. cooperatives, associations, commercial companies working on the principles of returning the investment to the founder). Ever since 1995 cooperatives in Croatia have not grown by pursuing their own internal growth but mostly by relying on external financial support. The greater part of today’s registered cooperatives tend to be agricultural (39%), followed by war veterans cooperatives (38%) and others. There are no financial cooperatives in Croatia. Due to the above mentioned we look at the historical developments and the prevailing social enterprises forms and discuss their advantages and disadvantages as potential agents for social and economic transformation and community development in the region. There is an evident lack of understanding of this business model and of its potential for social and economic development followed by an unfavorable institutional environment. Thus, we discuss the role of governance and management in the formation of social enterprises in Croatia, stressing the challenges for the governance of the country’s social enterprise movement.

Keywords: financial cooperatives, governance and management models, microfinance institutions, social enterprises

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Authors: Özge Çeliker Tosun, Melda Başer Secer, İsmail Düşmez, Sedat Çapar, İlkay Kozak, Melahat Aktaş, Furkan Can Şimşek, Gökhan Tosun

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Purpose: Portable innovative balance room system with digital game program; It was created to be able to be divided into small areas, such as inside the house, garden, balcony, to enable the person to enter and perform both evaluation and exercise safely, and to ensure that these results can be stored and sent to the therapist live or later when desired. The aim is to compare the effectiveness of the exercise program applied by the elderly within this system and the exercise program implemented under the supervision of a physiotherapist on balance and urinary incontinence symptoms. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in a randomized controlled manner on 63 people with urinary incontinence (mean age: 75.5 years) at Narlıdere Nursing Home Elderly Care and Rehabilitation Center. Elderly people participating in the study were divided into 3 groups: 1. Group, an exercise program consisting of pelvic floor muscle training and OTOGA exercises, 2. Group, only pelvic floor muscle training, and 3. Group, pelvic floor muscle training and Otoga exercises in the form of a digital game program in a portable balance room system. (self-administered) for 12 weeks. Pelvic floor distress inventory (PTDE-20) and bladder diary were used to evaluate the incontinance symptoms of the cases. Pelvic floor muscle function was evaluated with superficial EMG. Berg, Fall Effectiveness Scale (FES) and Functional Status Evaluations (Chair Stand Test, Eight (8) Food Up and Go Test, Chair Sit and Reach Test, Two Minutes Step Test) were used to evaluate balance. The existence of differences between groups was analyzed using Krusskal Wallis analysis of variance, and the difference between before and after exercise was analyzed with Wilcoxon tests. Results: After treatment, PTDE-20, daily urinary incontinence and toilet visits values decreased significantly in all three groups (p < 0.001). While there was a statistically significant increase in pelvic floor muscle EMG values in the 2nd and third groups after treatment, there was no change in the other group (2nd Group PFM average EMG before-after: 5.5 (4.15-10.95) - 10.95 (8.68-13.68), P=0.05, 3 Group PFM average EMG before-after: 6.5 (4.28-11.55) - 11.75 (8.67-14.26), p=0.04). While BERG score, Chair Stand Test, Eight (8) Food Up and Go Test, and Two Minutes Step Test values increased in all groups (p<0.05), Fall Effectiveness Scale (FES) values did not change after treatment. Conclusion: Although pelvic floor muscle training combined with balance exercises reduces symptoms, it may not lead to a positive improvement in the functions of the pelvic floor muscles. For this reason, recovery lasts for a short time, and then symptoms may reoccur in the future. However, thanks to the new system, when balance exercises are combined with a game program for the pelvic floor muscles, a double effect can be achieved with a single application and both incontinence and balance problems can be treated in a safe environment where the person can do it himself. But more work needs to be done on this subject. However, thanks to the new system, a double effect can be achieved with a single application, and both incontinence and balance problems can be treated in a safe environment where the person can do it himself. But more work needs to be done on new system

Keywords: fall, urinary incontinance, balance, elderly

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Authors: A. Casale, J. Alessi, C. N. Bianchi, G. Bozzini, M. Brunoldi, V. Cappanera, P. Corvisiero, G. Fanciulli, D. Grosso, N. Magnoli, A. Mandich, C. Melchiorre, C. Morri, P. Povero, N. Stasi, M. Taiuti, G. Viano, M. Wurtz

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This work describes a real-time algorithm for detecting, tracking and classifying single motorboats, developed using the acoustic data recorded by a hydrophone array within the framework of EU LIFE + project ARION (LIFE09NAT/IT/000190). The project aims to improve the conservation status of bottlenose dolphins through a real-time simultaneous monitoring of their population and surface ship traffic. A Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) system is installed on two autonomous permanent marine buoys, located close to the boundaries of the Marine Protected Area (MPA) of Portofino (Ligurian Sea- Italy). Detecting surface ships is also a necessity in many other sensible areas, such as wind farms, oil platforms, and harbours. A PAM system could be an effective alternative to the usual monitoring systems, as radar or active sonar, for localizing unauthorized ship presence or illegal activities, with the advantage of not revealing its presence. Each ARION buoy consists of a particular type of structure, named meda elastica (elastic beacon) composed of a main pole, about 30-meter length, emerging for 7 meters, anchored to a mooring of 30 tons at 90 m depth by an anti-twist steel wire. Each buoy is equipped with a floating element and a hydrophone tetrahedron array, whose raw data are send via a Wi-Fi bridge to a ground station where real-time analysis is performed. Bottlenose dolphin detection algorithm and ship monitoring algorithm are operating in parallel and in real time. Three modules were developed and commissioned for ship monitoring. The first is the detection algorithm, based on Time Difference Of Arrival (TDOA) measurements, i.e., the evaluation of angular direction of the target respect to each buoy and the triangulation for obtaining the target position. The second is the tracking algorithm, based on a Kalman filter, i.e., the estimate of the real course and speed of the target through a predictor filter. At last, the classification algorithm is based on the DEMON method, i.e., the extraction of the acoustic signature of single vessels. The following results were obtained; the detection algorithm succeeded in evaluating the bearing angle with respect to each buoy and the position of the target, with an uncertainty of 2 degrees and a maximum range of 2.5 km. The tracking algorithm succeeded in reconstructing the real vessel courses and estimating the speed with an accuracy of 20% respect to the Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals. The classification algorithm succeeded in isolating the acoustic signature of single vessels, demonstrating its temporal stability and the consistency of both buoys results. As reference, the results were compared with the Hilbert transform of single channel signals. The algorithm for tracking multiple targets is ready to be developed, thanks to the modularity of the single ship algorithm: the classification module will enumerate and identify all targets present in the study area; for each of them, the detection module and the tracking module will be applied to monitor their course.

Keywords: acoustic-noise, bottlenose-dolphin, hydrophone, motorboat

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Authors: Pablo Oteiza, Ricardo Alvarez, Mehrdad Pirnia, Fuat Can

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To effectively combat climate change, many countries around the world have committed to a decarbonisation of their electricity, along with promoting a large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES). While this trend represents a unique opportunity to effectively combat climate change, achieving a sound and cost-efficient energy transition towards low-carbon power systems poses significant challenges for the multi-year Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP) problem. The objective of the multi-year TNEP is to determine the necessary network infrastructure to supply the projected demand in a cost-efficient way, considering the evolution of the new generation mix, including the integration of RES. The rapid integration of large-scale RES increases the variability and uncertainty in the power system operation, which in turn increases short-term flexibility requirements. To meet these requirements, flexible generating technologies such as energy storage systems must be considered within the TNEP as well, along with proper models for capturing the operational challenges of future power systems. As a consequence, TNEP formulations are becoming more complex and difficult to solve, especially for its application in realistic-sized power system models. To meet these challenges, there is an increasing need for developing efficient algorithms capable of solving the TNEP problem with reasonable computational time and resources. In this regard, a promising research area is the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for solving large-scale mixed-integer optimization problems, such as the TNEP. In particular, the use of AI along with mathematical optimization strategies based on decomposition has shown great potential. In this context, this paper presents an efficient algorithm for solving the multi-year TNEP problem. The algorithm combines AI techniques with Column Generation, a traditional decomposition-based mathematical optimization method. One of the challenges of using Column Generation for solving the TNEP problem is that the subproblems are of mixed-integer nature, and therefore solving them requires significant amounts of time and resources. Hence, in this proposal we solve a linearly relaxed version of the subproblems, and trained a binary classifier that determines the value of the binary variables, based on the results obtained from the linearized version. A key feature of the proposal is that we integrate the binary classifier into the optimization algorithm in such a way that the optimality of the solution can be guaranteed. The results of a study case based on the HRP 38-bus test system shows that the binary classifier has an accuracy above 97% for estimating the value of the binary variables. Since the linearly relaxed version of the subproblems can be solved with significantly less time than the integer programming counterpart, the integration of the binary classifier into the Column Generation algorithm allowed us to reduce the computational time required for solving the problem by 50%. The final version of this paper will contain a detailed description of the proposed algorithm, the AI-based binary classifier technique and its integration into the CG algorithm. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposal, we evaluate the algorithm in case studies with different scenarios, as well as in other power system models.

Keywords: integer optimization, machine learning, mathematical decomposition, transmission planning

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Authors: Rachid Dris, Robin Treilles, Max Beaurepaire, Minh Trang Nguyen, Sam Azimi, Vincent Rocher, Johnny Gasperi, Bruno Tassin

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Microplastic sources and fluxes in urban catchments are only poorly studied. Most often, the approaches taken focus on a single source and only carry out a description of the contamination levels and type (shape, size, polymers). In order to gain an improved knowledge of microplastic inputs at urban scales, estimating and comparing various fluxes is necessary. The Laboratoire Eau, Environnement et Systèmes Urbains (LEESU), the Laboratoire Eau Environnement (LEE) and the SIAAP (Service public de l’assainissement francilien) initiated several projects to investigate different urban sources and flows of microplastics. A systemic approach is undertaken at the scale of Paris Megacity, and several compartments are considered, including atmospheric fallout, wastewater treatments plants, runoff and combined sewer overflows. These investigations are carried out within the Limnoplast and OPUR projects. Atmospheric fallout was sampled during consecutive periods ranging from 2 to 3 weeks with a stainless-steel funnel. Both wet and dry periods were considered. Different treatment steps were sampled in 2 wastewater treatment plants (Seine-Amont for activated sludge and Seine-Centre for biofiltration) of the SIAAP, including sludge samples. Microplastics were also investigated in combined sewer overflows as well as in stormwater at the outlet suburban catchment (Sucy-en-Brie, France) during four rain events. Samples are treated using hydroperoxide digestion (H₂O₂ 30 %) in order to reduce organic material. Microplastics are then extracted from the samples with a density separation step using NaI (d=1.6 g.cm⁻³). Samples are filtered on metallic filters with a porosity of 14 µm between steps to separate them from the solutions (H₂O₂ and NaI). The last filtration was carried out on alumina filters. Infrared mapping analysis (using a micro-FTIR with an MCT detector) is performed on each alumina filter. The resulting maps are analyzed using a microplastic analysis software simple, developed by Aalborg University, Denmark and Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany. Blanks were systematically carried out to consider sample contamination. This presentation aims at synthesizing the data found in the various projects. In order to carry out a systemic approach and compare the various inputs, all the data were converted into annual microplastic fluxes (number of microplastics per year), and extrapolated to the Parisian agglomeration. PP, PE and alkyd are the most prevalent polymers found in storm water samples. Rain intensity and microplastic concentrations did not show any clear correlation. Considering the runoff volumes and the impervious surface area of the studied catchment, a flux of 4*107–9*107 MPs.yr⁻¹.ha⁻¹ was estimated. Samples of wastewater treatment plants and atmospheric fallout are currently being analyzed in order to finalize this assessment. The representativeness of such samplings and uncertainties related to the extrapolations will be discussed and gaps in knowledge will be identified. The data provided by such an approach will help to prioritize future research as well as policy efforts.

Keywords: microplastics, atmosphere, wastewater, urban runoff, Paris megacity, urban waters

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Authors: Abhisek Chakrabarty, Subhraprakash Mandal

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Flash flood is one of the catastrophic natural hazards in the mountainous region of India. The recent flood in the Mandakini River in Kedarnath (14-17th June, 2013) is a classic example of flash floods that devastated Uttarakhand by killing thousands of people.The disaster was an integrated effect of high intensityrainfall, sudden breach of Chorabari Lake and very steep topography. Every year in Himalayan Region flash flood occur due to intense rainfall over a short period of time, cloud burst, glacial lake outburst and collapse of artificial check dam that cause high flow of river water. In Sikkim-Derjeeling Himalaya one of the probable flash flood occurrence zone is Teesta Watershed. The Teesta River is a right tributary of the Brahmaputra with draining mountain area of approximately 8600 Sq. km. It originates in the Pauhunri massif (7127 m). The total length of the mountain section of the river amounts to 182 km. The Teesta is characterized by a complex hydrological regime. The river is fed not only by precipitation, but also by melting glaciers and snow as well as groundwater. The present study describes an attempt to model surface runoff in upper Teesta basin, which is directly related to catastrophic flood events, by creating a system based on GIS technology. The main object was to construct a direct unit hydrograph for an excess rainfall by estimating the stream flow response at the outlet of a watershed. Specifically, the methodology was based on the creation of a spatial database in GIS environment and on data editing. Moreover, rainfall time-series data collected from Indian Meteorological Department and they were processed in order to calculate flow time and the runoff volume. Apart from the meteorological data, background data such as topography, drainage network, land cover and geological data were also collected. Clipping the watershed from the entire area and the streamline generation for Teesta watershed were done and cross-sectional profiles plotted across the river at various locations from Aster DEM data using the ERDAS IMAGINE 9.0 and Arc GIS 10.0 software. The analysis of different hydraulic model to detect flash flood probability ware done using HEC-RAS, Flow-2D, HEC-HMS Software, which were of great importance in order to achieve the final result. With an input rainfall intensity above 400 mm per day for three days the flood runoff simulation models shows outbursts of lakes and check dam individually or in combination with run-off causing severe damage to the downstream settlements. Model output shows that 313 Sq. km area were found to be most vulnerable to flash flood includes Melli, Jourthang, Chungthang, and Lachung and 655sq. km. as moderately vulnerable includes Rangpo,Yathang, Dambung,Bardang, Singtam, Teesta Bazarand Thangu Valley. The model was validated by inserting the rain fall data of a flood event took place in August 1968, and 78% of the actual area flooded reflected in the output of the model. Lastly preventive and curative measures were suggested to reduce the losses by probable flash flood event.

Keywords: flash flood, GIS, runoff, simulation model, Teesta river basin

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Authors: Vanja Vlajkov, Ivana PajčIn, Mila Grahovac, Marta Loc, Dragana Budakov, Jovana Grahovac

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The rhizosphere soil refers to the plant roots' dynamic environment characterized by their inhabitants' high biological activity. Rhizospheric bacteria are recognized as effective biocontrol agents and considered cardinal in alternative strategies for securing ecological plant diseases management. The need to suppress fungal pathogens is an urgent task, not only because of the direct economic losses caused by infection but also due to their ability to produce mycotoxins with harmful effects on human health. Aspergillus and Fusarium species are well-known producers of toxigenic metabolites with a high capacity to colonize crops and enter the food chain. The bacteria belonging to the Bacillus genus has been conceded as a plant beneficial species in agricultural practice and identified as plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR). Besides incontestable potential, the full commercialization of microbial biopesticides is in the preliminary phase. Thus, there is a constant need for estimating the suitability of novel strains to be used as a central point of viable bioprocess leading to market-ready product development. In the present study, 76 potential producing strains were isolated from the rhizosphere soil, sampled from different localities in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina, Republic of Serbia. The selective isolation process of strains started by resuspending 1 g of soil samples in 9 ml of saline and incubating at 28° C for 15 minutes at 150 rpm. After homogenization, thermal treatment at 100° C for 7 minutes was performed. Dilution series (10-1-10-3) were prepared, and 500 µl of each was inoculated on nutrient agar plates and incubated at 28° C for 48 h. The pure cultures of morphologically different strains indicating belonging to the Bacillus genus were obtained by the spread-plate technique. The cultivation of the isolated strains was carried out in an Erlenmeyer flask for 96 h, at 28 °C, 170 rpm. The antagonistic activity screening included two phytopathogenic fungi as test microorganisms: Aspergillus sp. and Fusarium sp. The mycelial growth inhibition was estimated based on the antimicrobial activity testing of cultivation broth by the diffusion method. For the Aspergillus sp., the highest antifungal activity was recorded for the isolates Kro-4a and Mah-1a. In contrast, for the Fusarium sp., following 15 isolates exhibited the highest antagonistic effect Par-1, Par-2, Par-3, Par-4, Kup-4, Paš-1b, Pap-3, Kro-2, Kro-3a, Kro-3b, Kra-1a, Kra-1b, Šar-1, Šar-2b and Šar-4. One-way ANOVA was performed to determine the antagonists' effect statistical significance on inhibition zone diameter. Duncan's multiple range test was conducted to define homogenous groups of antagonists with the same level of statistical significance regarding their effect on antimicrobial activity of the tested cultivation broth against tested pathogens. The study results have pointed out the significant in vitro potential of the isolated strains to be used as biocontrol agents for the suppression of the tested mycotoxigenic fungi. Further research should include the identification and detailed characterization of the most promising isolates and mode of action of the selected strains as biocontrol agents. The following research should also involve bioprocess optimization steps to fully reach the selected strains' potential as microbial biopesticides and design cost-effective biotechnological production.

Keywords: Bacillus, biocontrol, bioprocess, mycotoxigenic fungi

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Authors: Danah Al-Selahi, Sulaiman Al-Ghunaim, Bashayer Sadiq, Fatma Al-Otaibi, Ali Ameen

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In light of recent changes affecting the Oil & Gas Industry, optimization measures have become imperative for all companies globally, including Kuwait Oil Company (KOC). To keep abreast of the dynamic market, a detailed Integrated Asset Plan (IAP) was developed to drive optimization across the organization, which was facilitated through the in-house developed software “Well Inventory Data Entry” (WIDE). This comprehensive and integrated approach enabled centralization of all planned asset components for better well planning, enhancement of performance, and to facilitate continuous improvement through performance tracking and midterm forecasting. Traditionally, this was hard to achieve as, in the past, various legacy methods were used. This paper briefly describes the methods successfully adopted to meet the company’s objective. IAPs were initially designed using computerized spreadsheets. However, as data captured became more complex and the number of stakeholders requiring and updating this information grew, the need to automate the conventional spreadsheets became apparent. WIDE, existing in other aspects of the company (namely, the Workover Optimization project), was utilized to meet the dynamic requirements of the IAP cycle. With the growth of extensive features to enhance the planning process, the tool evolved into a centralized data-hub for all asset-groups and technical support functions to analyze and infer from, leading WIDE to become the reference two-year operational plan for the entire company. To achieve WIDE’s goal of operational efficiency, asset-groups continuously add their parameters in a series of predefined workflows that enable the creation of a structured process which allows risk factors to be flagged and helps mitigation of the same. This tool dictates assigned responsibilities for all stakeholders in a method that enables continuous updates for daily performance measures and operational use. The reliable availability of WIDE, combined with its user-friendliness and easy accessibility, created a platform of cross-functionality amongst all asset-groups and technical support groups to update contents of their respective planning parameters. The home-grown entity was implemented across the entire company and tailored to feed in internal processes of several stakeholders across the company. Furthermore, the implementation of change management and root cause analysis techniques captured the dysfunctionality of previous plans, which in turn resulted in the improvement of already existing mechanisms of planning within the IAP. The detailed elucidation of the 2 year plan flagged any upcoming risks and shortfalls foreseen in the plan. All results were translated into a series of developments that propelled the tool’s capabilities beyond planning and into operations (such as Asset Production Forecasts, setting KPIs, and estimating operational needs). This process exemplifies the ability and reach of applying advanced development techniques to seamlessly integrated the planning parameters of various assets and technical support groups. These techniques enables the enhancement of integrating planning data workflows that ultimately lay the founding plans towards an epoch of accuracy and reliability. As such, benchmarks of establishing a set of standard goals are created to ensure the constant improvement of the efficiency of the entire planning and operational structure.

Keywords: automation, integration, value, communication

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Authors: Nazym Zhumabayeva, Aleksandr Mezin, Alexandra Knysheva

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Women's underrepresentation in STEM is critical, worsened by ineffective engagement in educational practices. UNICEF Kazakhstan and GameLab KBTU's collaborative initiatives aim to enhance female STEM participation by fostering an inclusive environment. Learning from LEVEL UP's 2023 program, which featured a hackathon, the 2024 strategy pivots towards non-competitive gamification. Although the data from last year's project showed higher than average student engagement, observations and in-depth interviews with participants showed that the format was stressful for the girls, making them focus on points rather than on other values. This study presents a gamified educational system, DPG Lab, aimed at incentivizing young women's participation in STEM through the development of digital public goods (DPGs). By prioritizing collaborative gamification elements, the project seeks to create an inclusive learning environment that increases engagement and interest in STEM among young women. The DPG Lab aims to find a solution to minimize competition and support collaboration. The project is designed to motivate female participants towards the development of digital solutions through an introduction to the concept of DPGs. It consists of a short online course, a simulation videogame, and a real-time online quest with an offline finale at the KBTU campus. The online course offers short video lectures on open-source development and DPG standards. The game facilitates the practical application of theoretical knowledge, enriching the learning experience. Learners can also participate in a quest that encourages participants to develop DPG ideas in teams by choosing missions throughout the quest path. At the offline quest finale, the participants will meet in person to exchange experiences and accomplishments without engaging in comparative assessments: the quest ensures that each team’s trajectory is distinct by design. This marks a shift from competitive hackathons to a collaborative format, recognizing the unique contributions and achievements of each participant. The pilot batch of students is scheduled to commence in April 2024, with the finale anticipated in June. It is projected that this group will comprise 50 female high-school students from various regions across Kazakhstan. Expected outcomes include increased engagement and interest in STEM fields among young female participants, positive emotional and psychological impact through an emphasis on collaborative learning environments, and improved understanding and skills in DPG development. GameLab KBTU intends to undertake a hypothesis evaluation, employing a methodology similar to that utilized in the preceding LEVEL UP project. This approach will encompass the compilation of quantitative metrics (conversion funnels, test results, and surveys) and qualitative data from in-depth interviews and observational studies. For comparative analysis, a select group of participants from the previous year's project will be recruited to engage in the DPG Lab. By developing and implementing a gamified framework that emphasizes inclusion, engagement, and collaboration, the study seeks to provide practical knowledge about effective gamification strategies for promoting gender diversity in STEM. The expected outcomes of this initiative can contribute to the broader discussion on gamification in education and gender equality in STEM by offering a replicable and scalable model for similar interventions around the world.

Keywords: collaborative learning, competitive learning, digital public goods, educational gamification, emerging regions, STEM, underprivileged groups

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Authors: Atish Bagchi, Siva Chandrasekaran

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Background: According to World Bank national accounts data, the estimated global manufacturing value-added output in 2020 was 13.74 trillion USD. These manufacturing processes are monitored, modelled, and controlled by advanced, real-time, computer-based systems, e.g., Industrial IoT, PLC, SCADA, etc. These systems measure and manipulate a set of physical variables, e.g., temperature, pressure, etc. Despite the use of IoT, SCADA etc., in manufacturing, studies suggest that unplanned downtime leads to economic losses of approximately 864 billion USD each year. Therefore, real-time, accurate detection, classification and prediction of machine behaviour are needed to minimise financial losses. Although vast literature exists on time-series data processing using machine learning, the challenges faced by the industries that lead to unplanned downtimes are: The current algorithms do not efficiently handle the high-volume streaming data from industrial IoTsensors and were tested on static and simulated datasets. While the existing algorithms can detect significant 'point' outliers, most do not handle contextual outliers (e.g., values within normal range but happening at an unexpected time of day) or subtle changes in machine behaviour. Machines are revamped periodically as part of planned maintenance programmes, which change the assumptions on which original AI models were created and trained. Aim: This research study aims to deliver a Graph Neural Network(GNN)based hybrid forecasting model that interfaces with the real-time machine control systemand can detect, predict machine behaviour and behavioural changes (anomalies) in real-time. This research will help manufacturing industries and utilities, e.g., water, electricity etc., reduce unplanned downtimes and consequential financial losses. Method: The data stored within a process control system, e.g., Industrial-IoT, Data Historian, is generally sampled during data acquisition from the sensor (source) and whenpersistingin the Data Historian to optimise storage and query performance. The sampling may inadvertently discard values that might contain subtle aspects of behavioural changes in machines. This research proposed a hybrid forecasting and classification model which combines the expressive and extrapolation capability of GNN enhanced with the estimates of entropy and spectral changes in the sampled data and additional temporal contexts to reconstruct the likely temporal trajectory of machine behavioural changes. The proposed real-time model belongs to the Deep Learning category of machine learning and interfaces with the sensors directly or through 'Process Data Historian', SCADA etc., to perform forecasting and classification tasks. Results: The model was interfaced with a Data Historianholding time-series data from 4flow sensors within a water treatment plantfor45 days. The recorded sampling interval for a sensor varied from 10 sec to 30 min. Approximately 65% of the available data was used for training the model, 20% for validation, and the rest for testing. The model identified the anomalies within the water treatment plant and predicted the plant's performance. These results were compared with the data reported by the plant SCADA-Historian system and the official data reported by the plant authorities. The model's accuracy was much higher (20%) than that reported by the SCADA-Historian system and matched the validated results declared by the plant auditors. Conclusions: The research demonstrates that a hybrid GNN based approach enhanced with entropy calculation and spectral information can effectively detect and predict a machine's behavioural changes. The model can interface with a plant's 'process control system' in real-time to perform forecasting and classification tasks to aid the asset management engineers to operate their machines more efficiently and reduce unplanned downtimes. A series of trialsare planned for this model in the future in other manufacturing industries.

Keywords: GNN, Entropy, anomaly detection, industrial time-series, AI, IoT, Industry 4.0, Machine Learning

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Authors: Georgina Cherry, Taranpreet Rai, Luke Boyden, Sitira Williams, Andrea Wright, Richard Brown, Viva Chu, Alasdair Cook, Kevin Wells

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Estimating population-level burden, abilities of pet-parents to identify disease and demand for veterinary services worldwide is challenging. The purpose of this study is to compare a feline pruritus survey with social media listening (SML) data discussing this condition. Surveys are expensive and labour intensive to analyse, but SML data is freeform and requires careful filtering for relevancy. This study considers data from a survey of owner-observed symptoms of 156 pruritic cats conducted using Pet Parade® and SML posts collected through web-scraping to gain insights into the characterisation and management of feline pruritus. SML posts meeting a feline body area, behaviour and symptom were captured and reviewed for relevance representing 1299 public posts collected from 2021 to 2023. The survey involved 1067 pet-parents who reported on pruritic symptoms in their cats. Among the observed cats, approximately 18.37% (n=196) exhibited at least one symptom. The most frequently reported symptoms were hair loss (9.2%), bald spots (7.3%) and infection, crusting, scaling, redness, scabbing, scaling, or bumpy skin (8.2%). Notably, bald spots were the primary symptom reported for short-haired cats, while other symptoms were more prevalent in medium and long-haired cats. Affected body areas, according to pet-parents, were primarily the head, face, chin, neck (27%), and the top of the body, along the spine (22%). 35% of all cats displayed excessive behaviours consistent with pruritic skin disease. Interestingly, 27% of these cats were perceived as non-symptomatic by their owners, suggesting an under-identification of itch-related signs. Furthermore, a significant proportion of symptomatic cats did not receive any skin disease medication, whether prescribed or over the counter (n=41). These findings indicate a higher incidence of pruritic skin disease in cats than recognized by pet owners, potentially leading to a lack of medical intervention for clinically symptomatic cases. The comparison between the survey and social media listening data revealed bald spots were reported in similar proportions in both datasets (25% in the survey and 28% in SML). Infection, crusting, scaling, redness, scabbing, scaling, or bumpy skin accounted for 31% of symptoms in the survey, whereas it represented 53% of relevant SML posts (excluding bumpy skin). Abnormal licking or chewing behaviours were mentioned by pet-parents in 40% of SML posts compared to 38% in the survey. The consistency in the findings of these two disparate data sources, including a complete overlap in affected body areas for the top 80% of social media listening posts, indicates minimal biases in each method, as significant biases would likely yield divergent results. Therefore, the strong agreement across pruritic symptoms, affected body areas, and reported behaviours enhances our confidence in the reliability of the findings. Moreover, the small differences identified between the datasets underscore the valuable insights that arise from utilising multiple data sources. These variations provide additional depth in characterising and managing feline pruritus, allowing for more comprehensive understanding of the condition. By combining survey data and social media listening, researchers can obtain a nuanced perspective and capture a wider range of experiences and perspectives, supporting informed decision-making in veterinary practice.

Keywords: social media listening, feline pruritus, surveys, felines, cats, pet owners

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Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

Abstract:

These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

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