Search results for: empirical Bayes method

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed

Abstract:

Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for the classification of an unstructured format description for identification of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support file format selection with just the unstructured text description that comprises the most important format features for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the file format indentification method employs file format classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with an estimation of required file format. Our goal is to make use of a format specification knowledge base aggregated from a different Web sources in order to select file format for a particular institution. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert, the file format for his institution. The proposed methods facilitate the selection of file format and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and specifications of file formats. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the file formats is presented as a file format vocabulary that comprises most common terms that are characteristic for all researched formats. The goal is to suggest a particular file format based on this vocabulary for analysis by an expert. The sample file format calculation and the calculation results including probabilities are presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: data mining, digital libraries, digital preservation, file format

Procedia PDF Downloads 469

Authors: Asror Nigmonov Asqar Ogli, Sitora Inoyatova Amonovna

Abstract:

It has been a decade when the crowdfunding and P2P lending opportunities were created. Today, the market of these modern alternative investments is becoming increasingly complex to navigate. There are overwhelming amount of peer-to-peer lending platforms both in developed and emerging economies. This study looks into this market via the cross country empirical study. In this respect, it tests the effect of various macroeconomic factors on P2P loan lending. Based on the existing literature that largely lacks empirical investigations, it builds regression model that aims to explore the relationship between economy and P2P lending. Though the author found it extremely difficult to compare the findings with earlier studies, this paper had identified certain tendencies in the data and had certain policy implications. However, the paper could not find any significant effect of economic variables on P2P lending. The paper can be considered as a starting point in empirical investigation of P2P lending and highlights room further research based on limitations of the study.

Keywords: peer-to-peer lending, crowdfunding, marketplace lending, alternative finance, fintech

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Patricia Jiménez, Rafael Corchuelo, Hassan A. Sleiman

Abstract:

Web mining is gaining importance at an increasing pace. Currently, there are many complementary research topics under this umbrella. Their common theme is that they all focus on applying knowledge discovery techniques to data that is gathered from the Web. Sometimes, these data are relatively easy to gather, chiefly when it comes from server logs. Unfortunately, there are cases in which the data to be mined is the data that is displayed on a web document. In such cases, it is necessary to apply a pre-processing step to first extract the information of interest from the web documents. Such pre-processing steps are performed using so-called information extractors, which are software components that are typically configured by means of rules that are tailored to extracting the information of interest from a web page and structuring it according to a pre-defined schema. Paramount to getting good mining results is that the technique used to extract the source information is exact, which requires to evaluate and compare the different proposals in the literature from an empirical point of view. According to Google Scholar, about 4 200 papers on information extraction have been published during the last decade. Unfortunately, they were not evaluated within a homogeneous framework, which leads to difficulties to compare them empirically. In this paper, we report on an original information extraction evaluation method. Our contribution is three-fold: a) this is the first attempt to provide an evaluation method for proposals that work on semi-structured documents; the little existing work on this topic focuses on proposals that work on free text, which has little to do with extracting information from semi-structured documents. b) It provides a method that relies on statistically sound tests to support the conclusions drawn; the previous work does not provide clear guidelines or recommend statistically sound tests, but rather a survey that collects many features to take into account as well as related work; c) We provide a novel method to compute the performance measures regarding unsupervised proposals; otherwise they would require the intervention of a user to compute them by using the annotations on the evaluation sets and the information extracted. Our contributions will definitely help researchers in this area make sure that they have advanced the state of the art not only conceptually, but from an empirical point of view; it will also help practitioners make informed decisions on which proposal is the most adequate for a particular problem. This conference is a good forum to discuss on our ideas so that we can spread them to help improve the evaluation of information extraction proposals and gather valuable feedback from other researchers.

Keywords: web information extractors, information extraction evaluation method, Google scholar, web

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Julide Yildirim, Nadir Ocal

Abstract:

Even though there are many studies investigating the extent and determinants of poverty, there is paucity of research investigating the issue of energy poverty in Turkey. The aim of this paper is threefold: First to investigate the extend of energy poverty in Turkey by using Household Budget Survey datasets belonging to 2005 - 2016 period. Second, to examine the risk factors for energy poverty. Finally, to assess the impact of social assistance program participation on energy poverty. Existing literature employs alternative methods to measure energy poverty. In this study energy poverty is measured by employing expenditure approach, where people are considered as energy poor if they disburse more than 10 per cent of their income to meet their energy requirements. Empirical results indicate that energy poverty rate is around 20 per cent during the time period under consideration. Since Household Budget Survey panel data is not available for 2005 - 2016 period, a pseudo panel has been constructed. Panel logistic regression method is utilized to determine the risk factors for energy poverty. The empirical results demonstrate that there is a statistically significant impact of work status and education level on energy poverty likelihood. In the final part of the paper the impact of social transfers on energy poverty has been examined by utilizing panel biprobit model, where social transfer participation and energy poverty incidences are jointly modeled. The empirical findings indicate that social transfer program participation reduces energy poverty. The negative association between energy poverty and social transfer program participation is more pronounced in urban areas compared with the rural areas.

Keywords: energy poverty, social transfers, panel data models, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Donatella Giuliani

Abstract:

In this research, we propose an unsupervised grayscale image segmentation method based on a combination of the Firefly Algorithm and the Gaussian Mixture Model. Firstly, the Firefly Algorithm has been applied in a histogram-based research of cluster means. The Firefly Algorithm is a stochastic global optimization technique, centered on the flashing characteristics of fireflies. In this context it has been performed to determine the number of clusters and the related cluster means in a histogram-based segmentation approach. Successively these means are used in the initialization step for the parameter estimation of a Gaussian Mixture Model. The parametric probability density function of a Gaussian Mixture Model is represented as a weighted sum of Gaussian component densities, whose parameters are evaluated applying the iterative Expectation-Maximization technique. The coefficients of the linear super-position of Gaussians can be thought as prior probabilities of each component. Applying the Bayes rule, the posterior probabilities of the grayscale intensities have been evaluated, therefore their maxima are used to assign each pixel to the clusters, according to their gray-level values. The proposed approach appears fairly solid and reliable when applied even to complex grayscale images. The validation has been performed by using different standard measures, more precisely: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the Structural Content (SC), the Normalized Correlation Coefficient (NK) and the Davies-Bouldin (DB) index. The achieved results have strongly confirmed the robustness of this gray scale segmentation method based on a metaheuristic algorithm. Another noteworthy advantage of this methodology is due to the use of maxima of responsibilities for the pixel assignment that implies a consistent reduction of the computational costs.

Keywords: clustering images, firefly algorithm, Gaussian mixture model, meta heuristic algorithm, image segmentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Wael Bakhit, Salma Bakhit

Abstract:

This paper employs a quarterly time series to determine the timing of structural breaks for interest rates in USA over the last 60 years. The Chow test is used for investigating the non-stationary, where the date of the potential break is assumed to be known. Moreover, an empirical examination of the financial sector was made to check if it is positively related to deviations from an assumed interest rate as given in a standard Taylor rule. The empirical analysis is strengthened by analysing the rule from a historical perspective and a look at the effect of setting the interest rate by the central bank on financial imbalances. The empirical evidence indicates that deviation in monetary policy has a potential causal factor in the build-up of financial imbalances and the subsequent crisis where macro prudential intervention could have beneficial effect. Thus, our findings tend to support the view which states that the probable existence of central banks has been a source of global financial crisis since the past decade.

Keywords: Taylor rule, financial imbalances, central banks, econometrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Mashood C., Abdul Vahid K., Ashique C. K.

Abstract:

The technology is growing beyond human expectation. Internet is one of very sophisticated product of the information technology. It has various advantages like connecting the world, simplifying the difficult tasks done in past etc. Simultaneously it has demerits also; that is lack of authenticity and internet addiction. To find out the problems of internet addiction, a study conducted among the Postgraduate students of Pondicherry University and collected 454 samples. The study strictly focused to identify the internet addiction among students, influence and interdependence of personality on internet addiction among first years and second years. To evaluate this, we used two major analysis, these are Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) to predict the internet addiction with the observed data and Logistic Regression to identify the difference between first years and second years in the case of internet addiction. Before applying to the core analysis, the data applied to some preliminary tests to check the model fit. The empirical findings shows that , the students of Pondicherry University are very much addicted to the internet, But there is no such huge difference between first years and second years in case of internet addiction.

Keywords: internet addiction, students, Pondicherry University, empirical study

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: K. A. Tharanga, K. H. H. Damayanthi

Abstract:

Perception is an epistemological concept discussed in Philosophy. Perception, in other word, vision, is one of the ways that human beings get empirical knowledge after five senses. However, we face innumerable problems when achieving knowledge from perception, and therefore the knowledge gained through perception is uncertain. what we see in the external world is not real. These are the major issues that we face when receiving knowledge through perception. Sometimes there is no physical existence of what we really see. In such cases, the perception is relative. The following frames will be taken into consideration when perception is analyzed illusions and delusions, the figure of a physical object, appearance and the reality of a physical object, time factor, and colour of a physical object.seeing and knowing become vary according to the above conceptual frames. We cannot come to a proper conclusion of what we see in the empirical world. Because the things that we see are not really there. Hence the scientific knowledge which is gained from observation is doubtful. All the factors discussed in science remain in the physical world. There is a leap from ones existence to the existence of a world outside his/her mind. Indeed, one can suppose that what he/she takes to be real is just anmassive deception. However, depending on the above facts, if someone begins to doubt about the whole world, it is unavoidable to become his/her view a scepticism or nihilism. This is a certain reality.

Keywords: empirical, perception, sceptisism, nihilism

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Jehad Al Dallal

Abstract:

The design of the internal relationships among object-oriented class members (i.e., attributes and methods) and the external relationships among classes affects the overall quality of the object-oriented software. The degree of relatedness among class members is referred to as class cohesion and the degree to which a class is related to other classes is called class coupling. Well designed classes are expected to exhibit high cohesion and low coupling values. In this paper, using classes of three open-source Java systems, we empirically investigate the relation between class cohesion and coupling. In the empirical study, five lack-of-cohesion metrics and eight coupling metrics are considered. The empirical study results show that class cohesion and coupling internal quality attributes are inversely correlated. The strength of the correlation highly depends on the cohesion and coupling measurement approaches.

Keywords: class cohesion measure, class coupling measure, object-oriented class, software quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Mohammad Ara

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to provide some empirical evidence about implementing Activity-Based Costing (ABC) in the hospitality industry in Iran. For this purpose, we consider the Tabriz International Hotel as our sample hotel and then gather the relevant data from its cost accounting system in 2012. Then, we use ABC as our costing method and compare the cost of each service unit with that cost which had been extracted for the traditional costing method. The results show a different cost per unit for two methods. Also, because of its more precise and detailed provided information, an ABC system facilitates the decision-making process for managers on decisions related to profitability analysis, budgeting, pricing, and so on.

Keywords: Activity-Based Costing (ABC), activity, cost driver, hospitality industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Wajih Abbassi, Zouhaier Ben Khelifa

Abstract:

The present research points towards the empirical validation of three options valuation models, the ad-hoc Black-Scholes model as proposed by Berkowitz (2001), the constant elasticity of variance model of Cox and Ross (1976) and the Kou jump-diffusion model (2002). Our empirical analysis has been conducted on a sample of 26,974 options written on three indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 that were negotiated during the year 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis. We start by presenting the theoretical foundations of the models of interest. Then we use the technique of trust-region-reflective algorithm to estimate the structural parameters of these models from cross-section of option prices. The empirical analysis shows the superiority of the Kou jump-diffusion model. This superiority arises from the ability of this model to portray the behavior of market participants and to be closest to the true distribution that characterizes the evolution of these indices. Indeed the double-exponential distribution covers three interesting properties that are: the leptokurtic feature, the memory less property and the psychological aspect of market participants. Numerous empirical studies have shown that markets tend to have both overreaction and under reaction over good and bad news respectively. Despite of these advantages there are not many empirical studies based on this model partly because probability distribution and option valuation formula are rather complicated. This paper is the first to have used the technique of nonlinear curve-fitting through the trust-region-reflective algorithm and cross-section options to estimate the structural parameters of the Kou jump-diffusion model.

Keywords: jump-diffusion process, Kou model, Leptokurtic feature, trust-region-reflective algorithm, US index options

Procedia PDF Downloads 403

Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

Abstract:

This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Mehdi Jalalpour, Mazdak Tootkaboni

Abstract:

We present a computationally efficient method for reliability-based topology optimization under material properties uncertainty, which is assumed to be lognormally distributed and correlated within the domain. Computational efficiency is achieved through estimating the response statistics with stochastic perturbation of second order, using these statistics to fit an appropriate distribution that follows the empirical distribution of the response, and employing an efficient gradient-based optimizer. The proposed algorithm is utilized for design of new structures and the changes in the optimized topology is discussed for various levels of target reliability and correlation strength. Predictions were verified thorough comparison with results obtained using Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: material uncertainty, stochastic perturbation, structural reliability, topology optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 569

Authors: Tamanna Rimi

Abstract:

A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Kemal Polat

Abstract:

In this paper, three feature weighting methods have been used to improve the classification performance of diabetic retinopathy (DR). To classify the diabetic retinopathy, features extracted from the output of several retinal image processing algorithms, such as image-level, lesion-specific and anatomical components, have been used and fed them into the classifier algorithms. The dataset used in this study has been taken from University of California, Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository. Feature weighting methods including the fuzzy c-means clustering based feature weighting, subtractive clustering based feature weighting, and Gaussian mixture clustering based feature weighting, have been used and compered with each other in the classification of DR. After feature weighting, five different classifier algorithms comprising multi-layer perceptron (MLP), k- nearest neighbor (k-NN), decision tree, support vector machine (SVM), and Naïve Bayes have been used. The hybrid method based on combination of subtractive clustering based feature weighting and decision tree classifier has been obtained the classification accuracy of 100% in the screening of DR. These results have demonstrated that the proposed hybrid scheme is very promising in the medical data set classification.

Keywords: machine learning, data weighting, classification, data mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Arun Goel

Abstract:

Prediction of maximum local scour is necessary for the safety and economical design of the bridges. A number of equations have been developed over the years to predict local scour depth using laboratory data and a few pier equations have also been proposed using field data. Most of these equations are empirical in nature as indicated by the past publications. In this paper, attempts have been made to compute local depth of scour around bridge pier in dimensional and non-dimensional form by using linear regression, simple regression and SVM (Poly and Rbf) techniques along with few conventional empirical equations. The outcome of this study suggests that the SVM (Poly and Rbf) based modeling can be employed as an alternate to linear regression, simple regression and the conventional empirical equations in predicting scour depth of bridge piers. The results of present study on the basis of non-dimensional form of bridge pier scour indicates the improvement in the performance of SVM (Poly and Rbf) in comparison to dimensional form of scour.

Keywords: modeling, pier scour, regression, prediction, SVM (Poly and Rbf kernels)

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

Abstract:

Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Sourour Khouaja, Hejer Jlassi, Nadia Feddaoui, Kamel Hamrouni

Abstract:

Most medical images, and especially mammographies, are now stored in large databases. Retrieving a desired image is considered of great importance in order to find previous similar cases diagnosis. Our method is implemented to assist radiologists in retrieving mammographic images containing breast with similar density aspect as seen on the mammogram. This is becoming a challenge seeing the importance of density criteria in cancer provision and its effect on segmentation issues. We used the BEMD (Bidimensional Empirical Mode Decomposition) to characterize the content of images and Euclidean distance measure similarity between images. Through the experiments on the MIAS mammography image database, we confirm that the results are promising. The performance was evaluated using precision and recall curves comparing query and retrieved images. Computing recall-precision proved the effectiveness of applying the CBIR in the large mammographic image databases. We found a precision of 91.2% for mammography with a recall of 86.8%.

Keywords: BEMD, breast density, contend-based, image retrieval, mammography

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: L. Rakesh, T. Y. Heblekar

Abstract:

This study entails the development and optimization of a mathematical model for a floating drum biogas reactor from first principles using thermal and empirical considerations. The model was derived on the basis of mass conservation, lumped mass heat transfer formulations and empirical biogas formation laws. The treatment leads to a system of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations whose solution mapped four-time independent controllable parameters to five output variables which adequately serve to describe the reactor performance. These equations were solved numerically using fourth order Runge-Kutta method for a range of input parameter values. Using the data so obtained an Artificial Neural Network with a single hidden layer was trained using Levenberg-Marquardt Damped Least Squares (DLS) algorithm. This network was then fine-tuned for optimal mapping by varying hidden layer size. This fast forward model was then employed as a health score generator in the Bacterial Foraging Optimization code. The optimal operating state of the simplified Biogas reactor was thus obtained.

Keywords: biogas, floating drum reactor, neural network model, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: K. A.Tharanga, K. H. H. Damayanthi

Abstract:

Perception is an epistemological concept discussed in Philosophy. Perception, in other word, vision, is one of the ways that human beings get empirical knowledge after five senses. However, we face innumerable problems when achieving knowledge from perception, and therefore the knowledge gained through perception is uncertain. what we see in the external world is not real. These are the major issues that we face when receiving knowledge through perception. Sometimes there is no physical existence of what we really see. In such cases, the perception is relative. The following frames will be taken into consideration when perception is analyzed illusions and delusions, the figure of a physical object, appearance and the reality of a physical object, time factor, and colour of a physical object. seeing and knowing become vary according to the above conceptual frames. We cannot come to a proper conclusion of what we see in the empirical world. Because the things that we see are not really there. Hence the scientific knowledge which is gained from observation is doubtful. All the factors discussed in science remain in the physical world. There is a leap from ones existence to the existence of a world outside his/her mind. Indeed, one can suppose that what he/she takes to be real is just a massive deception. However, depending on the above facts, if someone begins to doubt about the whole world, it is unavoidable to become his/her view a scepticism or nihilism. This is a certain reality.

Keywords: empirical, perception, sceptisism, nihilism

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Jacob Green, Cecilia Cabrera, Maximilian Jakobs, Andrea Dimitracopoulos, Mark van der Wilk, Ryan Greenhalgh

Abstract:

Predicting drug properties is key in drug discovery to enable de-risking of assets before expensive clinical trials and to find highly active compounds faster. Interest from the machine learning community has led to the release of a variety of benchmark datasets and proposed methods. However, it remains unclear for practitioners which method or approach is most suitable, as different papers benchmark on different datasets and methods, leading to varying conclusions that are not easily compared. Our large-scale empirical study links together numerous earlier works on different datasets and methods, thus offering a comprehensive overview of the existing property classes, datasets, and their interactions with different methods. We emphasise the importance of uncertainty quantification and the time and, therefore, cost of applying these methods in the drug development decision-making cycle. To the best of the author's knowledge, it has been observed that the optimal approach varies depending on the dataset and that engineered features with classical machine learning methods often outperform deep learning. Specifically, QSAR datasets are typically best analysed with classical methods such as Gaussian Processes, while ADMET datasets are sometimes better described by Trees or deep learning methods such as Graph Neural Networks or language models. Our work highlights that practitioners do not yet have a straightforward, black-box procedure to rely on and sets a precedent for creating practitioner-relevant benchmarks. Deep learning approaches must be proven on these benchmarks to become the practical method of choice in drug property prediction.

Keywords: activity (QSAR), ADMET, classical methods, drug property prediction, empirical study, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

Abstract:

Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Ping Bo, Meng Yunshan

Abstract:

Satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) is a key parameter for many operational and scientific applications. However, the disadvantage of SST data is a high percentage of missing data which is mainly caused by cloud coverage. Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) algorithm is an EOF-based technique for reconstructing the missing data and has been widely used in oceanographic field. The reconstruction of SST images within a long time series using DINEOF can cause large discontinuities and one solution for this problem is to filter the temporal covariance matrix to reduce the spurious variability. Based on the previous researches, an algorithm is presented in this paper to improve the temporal correlations in EOF expansion. Similar with the previous researches, a filter, such as Laplacian filter, is implemented on the temporal covariance matrix, but the temporal relationship between two consecutive images which is used in the filter is considered in the presented algorithm, for example, two images in the same season are more likely correlated than those in the different seasons, hence the latter one is less weighted in the filter. The presented approach is tested for the monthly nighttime 4-km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder SST for the long-term period spanning from 1989 to 2006. The results obtained from the presented algorithm are compared to those from the original DINEOF algorithm without filtering and from the DINEOF algorithm with filtering but without taking temporal relationship into account.

Keywords: data interpolating empirical orthogonal function, image reconstruction, sea surface temperature, temporal filter

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Ateba Benedict Belobo, Faan Pelser, Ambe Marcus

Abstract:

Aims: This study arise from repeated complaints from both electronic mails about the underperformance of Mafikeng Small and Medium-Size enterprises after the global financial crisis. The authors were on the view that, this poor performance experienced could be as a result of the negative effects on the cash flow of these businesses due to volatilities in the business environment in general prior to the global crisis. Thus, the paper was mainly aimed at determining the shortcomings experienced by these SMEs with regards to cash flow management. It was also aimed at suggesting possible measures to improve cash flow management of these SMEs in this tough time. Methods: A case study was conducted on 3 beverage suppliers, 27 bottle stores, 3 largest fast consumer goods super markets and 7 automobiles enterprises in the Mafikeng local municipality. A mixed method research design was employed and a purposive sampling was used in selecting SMEs that participated. Views and experiences of participants of the paper were captured through in-depth interviews. Data from the empirical investigation were interpreted using open coding and a simple percentage formula. Results: Findings from the empirical research reflected that majority of Mafikeng SMEs suffer poor operational performance prior to the global financial crisis primarily as a result of poor cash flow management. However, the empirical outcome also indicted other secondary factors contributing to this poor operational performance. Conclusion: Finally, the authorsproposed possible measures that could be used to improve cash flow management and to solve other factors affecting operational performance of SMEs in the Mafikeng local municipality in other to achieve a better business performance.

Keywords: cash flow, business performance, global financial crisis, SMEs

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: Abdollah Ghasempour, Mohammad Reza Kavianpour, Majid Galoie

Abstract:

This study has investigated the fundamental parameters which have effective role on energy dissipation of nappe flows on stepped chutes in order to estimate an empirical relationship using dimensional analysis. To gain this goal, comprehensive experimental study on some large-scale physical models with various step geometries, slopes, discharges, etc. were carried out. For all models, hydraulic parameters such as velocity, pressure, water depth, flow regime and etc. were measured precisely. The effective parameters, then, could be determined by analysis of experimental data. Finally, a dimensional analysis was done in order to estimate an empirical relationship for evaluation of energy dissipation of nappe flows on stepped chutes. Because of using the large-scale physical models in this study, the empirical relationship is in very good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: nappe flow, energy dissipation, stepped chute, dimensional analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Jehad Al Dallal

Abstract:

Attributes and methods are the basic contents of an object-oriented class. The connectivity among these class members and the relationship between the class and other classes play an important role in determining the quality of an object-oriented system. Class cohesion evaluates the degree of relatedness of class attributes and methods, whereas class coupling refers to the degree to which a class is related to other classes. Researchers have proposed several class cohesion and class coupling measures. However, the correlation between class coupling and class cohesion measures have not been thoroughly studied. In this paper, using classes of three open-source Java systems, we empirically investigate the correlation between several measures of connectivity-based class cohesion and coupling. Four connectivity-based cohesion measures and eight coupling measures are considered in the empirical study. The empirical study results show that class connectivity-based cohesion and coupling internal quality attributes are inversely correlated. The strength of the correlation depends highly on the cohesion and coupling measurement approaches.

Keywords: object-oriented class, software quality, class cohesion measure, class coupling measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Muhammad Jawwad, Riffat Iqbal

Abstract:

The Socratic method, also known as the dialectical method and elenctic method, has significant relevance in the contemporary educational system. It can be incorporated into modern-day educational systems theoretically as well as practically. Being interactive and dialogue-based in nature, this teaching approach is followed by critical thinking and innovation. The pragmatic value of the Dialectical Method has been discussed in this article, and the limitations of the Socratic method have also been highlighted. The interactive Method of Socrates can be used in many subjects for students of different grades. The Limitations and delimitations of the Method have also been discussed for its proper implementation. This article has attempted to elaborate and analyze the teaching method of Socrates with all its pre-suppositions and Epistemological character.

Keywords: Socratic method, dialectical method, knowledge, teaching, virtue

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: William Feng, Qingyu Gao

Abstract:

Despite the extensive discussions about Hong Kong’s sentiments towards the Chinese Mainland since the sovereignty transfer in 1997, there has been no large-scale empirical analysis of the changing attitudes in the mainstream media, which both reflect and shape sentiments in the society. To address this gap, the present study uses an optimised semantic-based automatic sentiment analysis method to examine a corpus of news about China from 1997 to 2020 in three main Chinese-language newspapers in Hong Kong, namely Apple Daily, Ming Pao, and Oriental Daily News. The analysis shows that although the Hong Kong press had a positive emotional tone toward China in general, the overall trend of sentiment was becoming increasingly negative. Meanwhile, the alignment and antagonism toward China have both increased, providing empirical evidence of attitudinal polarisation in the Hong Kong society. Specifically, Apple Daily’s depictions of China have become increasingly negative, though with some positive turns before 2008, whilst Oriental Daily News has consistently expressed more favourable sentiments. Ming Pao maintained an impartial stance toward China through an increased but balanced representation of positive and negative sentiments, with its subjectivity and sentiment intensity growing to an industry-standard level. The results provide new insights into the complexity of sentiments towards China in the Hong Kong press and media attitudes in general in terms of the “us” and “them” positioning by explicating the cross-newspaper and cross-period variations using an enhanced sentiment analysis method which incorporates sentiment-oriented and semantic role analysis techniques.

Keywords: media attitude, sentiment analysis, Hong Kong press, one country two systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 73