Search results for: efficiency prediction

Authors: Yang Zhou, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is a fundamental problem in urban environment, facilitating the smart management of various businesses, such as taxi dispatching, bike relocation, and stampede alert. Most earlier methods rely on identifying the intrinsic spatial-temporal correlation to forecast. However, the complex nature of this problem entails a more sophisticated solution that can simultaneously capture the mutual influence of both adjacent and far-flung areas, with the information of time-dimension also incorporated seamlessly. To tackle this difficulty, we propose a new multi-phase architecture, DSTDS (Dual Spatial-Temporal Data Scheme for traffic prediction), that aims to reveal the underlying relationship that determines future traffic trend. First, a graph-based neural network with an attention mechanism is devised to obtain the static features of the road network. Then, a multi-granularity recurrent neural network is built in conjunction with the knowledge from a grid-based model. Subsequently, the preceding output is fed into a spatial-temporal super-resolution module. With this 3-phase structure, we carry out extensive experiments on several real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which surpasses several state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: traffic prediction, spatial-temporal, recurrent neural network, dual data scheme

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Authors: Muhammad Irfan

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The UN General Assembly has advocated improving energy efficiency by SDG criteria to promote global economic growth. Pakistan is confronted with financial obstacles when it comes to acquiring energy efficiency because of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and political instability, budgetary strains, and poor financial circumstances. The study examines how cutting-edge financing approaches like FinTech, financial inclusion, and green financing affect Pakistan's energy consumption. It finds noteworthy outcomes. The study's results have demonstrated the important impact of these funding methods on energy conservation. The best and most helpful finance tool for energy efficiency is green financing; yet, because of differences in characteristics, workings, and financial institutions, FinTech, and financial inclusion play a smaller role in Pakistan. The researchers propose that to achieve energy efficiency, FinTech activities and funding criteria such as green bonds should be reviewed. It also advised authorities to create energy system-friendly regulations for green finance in Pakistan.

Keywords: green finance, FinTech, financial inclusion, energy efficiency, Pakistan

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Authors: Rohana Abdullah, Md Nizam Abd Rahman, Seri Rahayu Kamat

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Operator efficiency aspect is gaining importance in ensuring optimized usage of resources especially in the semi-automated manufacturing environment. This paper addresses a case study done to solve operator efficiency and line balancing issue at a semiconductor assembly and test manufacturing. A Man-to-Machine (M2M) work study technique is used to study operator current utilization and determine the optimum allocation of the operators to the machines. Critical factors such as operator activity, activity frequency and operator competency level are considered to gain insight on the parameters that affects the operator utilization. Equipment standard time and overall equipment efficiency (OEE) information are also gathered and analyzed to achieve a balanced and optimized production.

Keywords: operator efficiency, optimized production, line balancing, industrial and manufacturing engineering

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Authors: S. Adjiri-Bailiche, S. M. Boudia, H. Daaou, S. Hadouche, A. Benzaoui

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In this work the study of changes in the wind speed depending on the altitude is calculated and described by the model of the neural networks, the use of measured data, the speed and direction of wind, temperature and the humidity at 10 m are used as input data and as data targets at 50m above sea level. Comparing predict wind speeds and extrapolated at 50 m above sea level is performed. The results show that the prediction by the method of artificial neural networks is very accurate.

Keywords: MATLAB, neural network, power low, vertical extrapolation, wind energy, wind speed

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Authors: Yingkun Huang, Li Guo, Zekang Lan, Kai Tian

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Hard disk drives (HDD) failure of the exascale supercomputing system may lead to service interruption and invalidate previous calculations, and it will cause permanent data loss. Therefore, initiating corrective actions before hard drive failures materialize is critical to the continued operation of jobs. In this paper, a highly accurate analysis model based on CNN-LSTM and oversampling technique was proposed, which can correctly predict the necessity of a disk replacement even ten days in advance. Generally, the learning-based method performs poorly on a training dataset with long-tail distribution, especially fault prediction is a very classic situation as the scarcity of failure data. To overcome the puzzle, a new oversampling was employed to augment the data, and then, an improved CNN-LSTM with the shortcut was built to learn more effective features. The shortcut transmits the results of the previous layer of CNN and is used as the input of the LSTM model after weighted fusion with the output of the next layer. Finally, a detailed, empirical comparison of 6 prediction methods is presented and discussed on a public dataset for evaluation. The experiments indicate that the proposed method predicts disk failure with 0.91 Precision, 0.91 Recall, 0.91 F-measure, and 0.90 MCC for 10 days prediction horizon. Thus, the proposed algorithm is an efficient algorithm for predicting HDD failure in supercomputing.

Keywords: HDD replacement, failure, CNN-LSTM, oversampling, prediction

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: Rodrigo S. Fonseca, Antônio C. P. Veiga

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Aiming at helping people with some movement limitation that makes typing and communication difficult, there is a need to customize an assistive tool with a learning environment that helps the user in order to optimize text input, identifying the error and providing the correction and possibilities of choice in the Portuguese language. The work presents an Orthographic and Grammatical System that can be incorporated into writing environments, improving and facilitating the use of an alphanumeric keyboard, using a prototype built using a genetic algorithm in addition to carrying out the prediction, which can occur based on the quantity and position of the inserted letters and even placement in the sentence, ensuring the sequence of ideas using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The prototype optimizes data entry, being a component of assistive technology for the textual formulation, detecting errors, seeking solutions and informing the user of accurate predictions quickly and effectively through machine learning.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, neural networks, word prediction, machine learning

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Authors: Rania Alshikhe, Vinita Jindal

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Digital innovation has played a crucial role in managing smart transportation. For this, big trajectory data collected from traveling vehicles, such as taxis through installed global positioning system (GPS)-enabled devices can be utilized. It offers an unprecedented opportunity to trace the movements of vehicles in fine spatiotemporal granularity. This paper aims to explore big trajectory data to measure the travel efficiency of road networks using the proposed statistical travel efficiency measure (STEM) across an entire city. Further, it identifies the cause of low travel efficiency by proposed least square approximation network-based causality exploration (LANCE). Finally, the resulting data analysis reveals the causes of low travel efficiency, along with the road segments that need to be optimized to improve the traffic conditions and thus minimize the average travel time from given point A to point B in the road network. Obtained results show that our proposed approach outperforms the baseline algorithms for measuring the travel efficiency of the road network.

Keywords: GPS trajectory, road network, taxi trips, digital map, big data, STEM, LANCE

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Authors: Ammar Alali, Mahmoud Abughaban

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Cost reduction and drilling optimization is the goal of many drilling operators. Historically, stuck pipe incidents were a major segment of non-productive time (NPT) associated costs. Traditionally, stuck pipe problems are part of the operations and solved post-sticking. However, the real key to savings and success is in predicting the stuck pipe incidents and avoiding the conditions leading to its occurrences. Previous attempts in stuck-pipe predictions have neglected the local geology of the problem. The proposed predictive tool utilizes geophysical data processing techniques and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict drilling activities events in real-time using surface drilling data with minimum computational power. The method combines two types of analysis: (1) real-time prediction, and (2) cause analysis. Real-time prediction aggregates the input data, including historical drilling surface data, geological formation tops, and petrophysical data, from wells within the same field. The input data are then flattened per the geological formation and stacked per stuck-pipe incidents. The algorithm uses two physical methods (stacking and flattening) to filter any noise in the signature and create a robust pre-determined pilot that adheres to the local geology. Once the drilling operation starts, the Wellsite Information Transfer Standard Markup Language (WITSML) live surface data are fed into a matrix and aggregated in a similar frequency as the pre-determined signature. Then, the matrix is correlated with the pre-determined stuck-pipe signature for this field, in real-time. The correlation used is a machine learning Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) algorithm, which selects relevant features from the class and identifying redundant features. The correlation output is interpreted as a probability curve of stuck pipe incidents prediction in real-time. Once this probability passes a fixed-threshold defined by the user, the other component, cause analysis, alerts the user of the expected incident based on set pre-determined signatures. A set of recommendations will be provided to reduce the associated risk. The validation process involved feeding of historical drilling data as live-stream, mimicking actual drilling conditions, of an onshore oil field. Pre-determined signatures were created for three problematic geological formations in this field prior. Three wells were processed as case studies, and the stuck-pipe incidents were predicted successfully, with an accuracy of 76%. This accuracy of detection could have resulted in around 50% reduction in NPT, equivalent to 9% cost saving in comparison with offset wells. The prediction of stuck pipe problem requires a method to capture geological, geophysical and drilling data, and recognize the indicators of this issue at a field and geological formation level. This paper illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the proposed cross-disciplinary approach in its ability to produce such signatures and predicting this NPT event.

Keywords: drilling optimization, hazard prediction, machine learning, stuck pipe

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Authors: Kassaye Balkew Workagegn, Gunnar Klemetsdal, Hans Magnus Gjøen

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In this study, the first objective was to investigate whether non-lethal or non-invasive methods, utilizing body measurements, could be used to efficiently predict fillet weight and fillet yield for a complete diallel cross of three Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) strains collected from three Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes, Lakes Ziway, Koka and Chamo. The second objective was to estimate heritability of body weight, actual and predicted fillet traits, as well as genetic correlations between these traits. A third goal was to estimate additive, reciprocal, and heterosis effects for body weight and the various fillet traits. As in females, early sexual maturation was widespread, only 958 male fish from 81 full-sib families were used, both for the prediction of fillet traits and in genetic analysis. The prediction equations from body measurements were established by forward regression analysis, choosing models with the least predicted residual error sums of squares (PRESS). The results revealed that body measurements on live Nile tilapia is well suited to predict fillet weight but not fillet yield (R²= 0.945 and 0.209, respectively), but both models were seemingly unbiased. The genetic analyses were carried out with bivariate, multibreed models. Body weight, fillet weight, and predicted fillet weight were all estimated with a heritability ranged from 0.23 to 0.28, and with genetic correlations close to one. Contrary, fillet yield was only to a minor degree heritable (0.05), while predicted fillet yield obtained a heritability of 0.19, being a resultant of two body weight variables known to have high heritability. The latter trait was estimated with genetic correlations to body weight and fillet weight traits larger than 0.82. No significant differences among strains were found for their additive genetic, reciprocal, or heterosis effects, while total heterosis effects were estimated as positive and significant (P < 0.05). As a conclusion, prediction of prediction of fillet weight based on body measurements is possible, but not for fillet yield.

Keywords: additive, fillet traits, genetic correlation, heritability, heterosis, prediction, reciprocal

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Authors: J. Vasauskaite

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From the perspective of Lithuanian furniture enterprises, the role of energy efficiency is significant as it leads to direct economic benefits, increased competitiveness and higher productivity. There are various possible improvements in energy efficiency in industry: changes in the production process, investment in R&D, implementation of energy-saving technologies or energy management systems. The research aims to contribute the understanding of energy efficiency importance in industry by presenting possible improvements of energy use in different manufacturing process of enterprises. The evaluation methodology included quantitative and qualitative research methods: the comparative and statistical analysis of primary and secondary sources of information. This paper provides the detailed analysis of the energy efficiency development opportunities and challenges in Lithuanian furniture industry. The results of the study show the importance of technological innovations, energy efficiency policies and environmental management strategies in developing energy efficiency within the wood and furniture industry. The analysis of energy efficiency development in Lithuanian furniture industry showed that the industrial activities are influenced by various internal and external factors such as increasing flows of products, human resources and overall management decisions; dynamic growth and increasing competition; emerging need for environmental information. In the light of these factors, Lithuanian furniture industry has undergone significant changes – restructuring, technological advances and business model innovations, allowing it to be more export-oriented and focus on upgrading quality, design and innovation.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy policy, furniture industry, technological innovation

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Authors: Javier Parra-Domínguez, Juan Manuel Corchado

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At present, public efficiency is a concept that intends to maximize return on public investment focus on minimizing the use of resources and maximizing the outputs. The concept takes into account statistical criteria drawn up according to techniques such as DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). The purpose of the current work is to consider, more precisely, the theoretical application of CBR (Case-Based Reasoning) from economics and computer science, as a preliminary step to improving the efficiency of law enforcement agencies (public sector). With the aim of increasing the efficiency of the public sector, we have entered into a phase whose main objective is the implementation of new technologies. Our main conclusion is that the application of computer techniques, such as CBR, has become key to the efficiency of the public sector, which continues to require economic valuation based on methodologies such as DEA. As a theoretical result and conclusion, the incorporation of CBR systems will reduce the number of inputs and increase, theoretically, the number of outputs generated based on previous computer knowledge.

Keywords: case-based reasoning, knowledge, police, public efficiency

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Authors: Nataša Kalajdžija, Strahinja Kovačević, Davor Lončar, Sanja Podunavac Kuzmanović, Lidija Jevrić

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In order to investigate the relationship between retention and structure, a quantitative Structure Retention Relationships (QSRRs) study was applied for the prediction of retention times of a set of 23 secoestrane derivatives in a reversed-phase thin-layer chromatography. After the calculation of molecular descriptors, a suitable set of molecular descriptors was selected by using step-wise multiple linear regressions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method was employed to model the nonlinear structure-activity relationships. The ANN technique resulted in 5-6-1 ANN model with the correlation coefficient of 0.98. We found that the following descriptors: Critical pressure, total energy, protease inhibition, distribution coefficient (LogD) and parameter of lipophilicity (miLogP) have a significant effect on the retention times. The prediction results are in very good agreement with the experimental ones. This approach provided a new and effective method for predicting the chromatographic retention index for the secoestrane derivatives investigated.

Keywords: lipophilicity, QSRR, RP TLC retention, secoestranes

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Authors: Panaya Sudta, Wanchalerm Patanacharoenwong, Prachya Bumrungkun

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As With the evolution of smart grids, ensuring the reliability and efficiency of electrical systems in smart cities has become crucial. This paper proposes a distinct approach that combines advanced machine learning techniques to accurately predict electrical failures and address voltage reliability issues. This approach aims to improve the accuracy and efficiency of reliability evaluations in smart cities. The aim of this research is to develop a comprehensive predictive model that accurately predicts electrical failures and voltage reliability in smart cities. This model integrates RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks to achieve this objective. The research utilizes RFM analysis, traditionally used in customer value assessment, to categorize and analyze electrical components based on their failure recency, frequency, and monetary impact. K-means clustering is employed to segment electrical components into distinct groups with similar characteristics and failure patterns. LSTM networks are used to capture the temporal dependencies and patterns in customer data. This integration of RFM, K-means, and LSTM results in a robust predictive tool for electrical failures and voltage reliability. The proposed model has been tested and validated on diverse electrical utility datasets. The results show a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods, achieving an accuracy of 92.78% and an F1-score of 0.83. This research contributes to the proactive maintenance and optimization of electrical infrastructures in smart cities. It also enhances overall energy management and sustainability. The integration of advanced machine learning techniques in the predictive model demonstrates the potential for transforming the landscape of electrical system management within smart cities. The research utilizes diverse electrical utility datasets to develop and validate the predictive model. RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks are applied to these datasets to analyze and predict electrical failures and voltage reliability. The research addresses the question of how accurately electrical failures and voltage reliability can be predicted in smart cities. It also investigates the effectiveness of integrating RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks in achieving this goal. The proposed approach presents a distinct, efficient, and effective solution for predicting and mitigating electrical failures and voltage issues in smart cities. It significantly improves prediction accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods. This advancement contributes to the proactive maintenance and optimization of electrical infrastructures, overall energy management, and sustainability in smart cities.

Keywords: electrical state prediction, smart grids, data-driven method, long short-term memory, RFM, k-means, machine learning

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Authors: A. Senthil Kumar, V. Murali Bhaskaran

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In the information technology ground, people are using various tools and software for their official use and personal reasons. Nowadays, people are worrying to choose data accessing and extraction tools at the time of buying and selling their products. In addition, worry about various quality factors such as price, durability, color, size, and availability of the product. The main purpose of the research study is to find solutions to these unsolved existing problems. The proposed algorithm is a Multidirectional Rank Prediction (MDRP) decision making algorithm in order to take an effective strategic decision at all the levels of data extraction, uses a real time textile dataset and analyzes the results. Finally, the results are obtained and compared with the existing measurement methods such as PCC, SLCF, and VSS. The result accuracy is higher than the existing rank prediction methods.

Keywords: Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD), Multidirectional Rank Prediction (MDRP), Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (PCC), VSS (Vector Space Similarity)

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Authors: Henok Hailemariam, Frank Wuttke

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Collapsible soils are weak soils that appear to be stable in their natural state, normally dry condition, but rapidly deform under saturation (wetting), thus generating large and unexpected settlements which often yield disastrous consequences for structures unwittingly built on such deposits. In this study, a prediction model for the relative subsidence of stressed collapsible soils based on dielectric permittivity measurement is presented. Unlike most existing methods for soil subsidence prediction, this model does not require moisture content as an input parameter, thus providing the opportunity to obtain accurate estimation of the relative subsidence of collapsible soils using dielectric measurement only. The prediction model is developed based on an existing relative subsidence prediction model (which is dependent on soil moisture condition) and an advanced theoretical frequency and temperature-dependent electromagnetic mixing equation (which effectively removes the moisture content dependence of the original relative subsidence prediction model). For large scale sub-surface soil exploration purposes, the spatial sub-surface soil dielectric data over wide areas and high depths of weak (collapsible) soil deposits can be obtained using non-destructive high frequency electromagnetic (HF-EM) measurement techniques such as ground penetrating radar (GPR). For laboratory or small scale in-situ measurements, techniques such as an open-ended coaxial line with widely applicable time domain reflectometry (TDR) or vector network analysers (VNAs) are usually employed to obtain the soil dielectric data. By using soil dielectric data obtained from small or large scale non-destructive HF-EM investigations, the new model can effectively predict the relative subsidence of weak soils without the need to extract samples for moisture content measurement. Some of the resulting benefits are the preservation of the undisturbed nature of the soil as well as a reduction in the investigation costs and analysis time in the identification of weak (problematic) soils. The accuracy of prediction of the presented model is assessed by conducting relative subsidence tests on a collapsible soil at various initial soil conditions and a good match between the model prediction and experimental results is obtained.

Keywords: collapsible soil, dielectric permittivity, moisture content, relative subsidence

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Authors: Yuwaratu Syafira, Wahyu K. Y. Putra, Kusharisupeni Djokosujono

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Background/Objective: Body Mass Index (BMI) serves various purposes, including measuring the prevalence of obesity in a population, and also in formulating a patient’s diet at a hospital, and can be calculated with the equation = body weight (kg)/body height (m)². However, the BMI of an individual with difficulties in carrying their weight or standing up straight can not necessarily be measured. The aim of this study was to form a prediction model for the BMI of young adult students of Public Health Faculty of University of Indonesia. Subject/Method: This study used a cross sectional design, with a total sample of 132 respondents, consisted of 58 males and 74 females aged 21- 30. The dependent variable of this study was BMI, and the independent variables consisted of sex and anthropometric measurements, which included ulna length, arm length, tibia length, knee height, mid-upper arm circumference, and calf circumference. Anthropometric information was measured and recorded in a single sitting. Simple and multiple linear regression analysis were used to create the prediction equation for BMI. Results: The male respondents had an average BMI of 24.63 kg/m² and the female respondents had an average of 22.52 kg/m². A total of 17 variables were analysed for its correlation with BMI. Bivariate analysis showed the variable with the strongest correlation with BMI was Mid-Upper Arm Circumference/√Ulna Length (MUAC/√UL) (r = 0.926 for males and r = 0.886 for females). Furthermore, MUAC alone also has a very strong correlation with BMI (r = 0,913 for males and r = 0,877 for females). Prediction models formed from either MUAC/√UL or MUAC alone both produce highly accurate predictions of BMI. However, measuring MUAC/√UL is considered inconvenient, which may cause difficulties when applied on the field. Conclusion: The prediction model considered most ideal to estimate BMI is: Male BMI (kg/m²) = 1.109(MUAC (cm)) – 9.202 and Female BMI (kg/m²) = 0.236 + 0.825(MUAC (cm)), based on its high accuracy levels and the convenience of measuring MUAC on the field.

Keywords: body mass index, mid-upper arm circumference, prediction model, ulna length

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Authors: Ejaz Ahmed, Huang Yong

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The operation of aero engines has a critical importance in the vicinity of lean blowout (LBO) limits. Lefebvre’s model of LBO based on empirical correlation has been extended to flame volume concept by the authors. The flame volume takes into account the effects of geometric configuration, the complex spatial interaction of mixing, turbulence, heat transfer and combustion processes inside the gas turbine combustion chamber. For these reasons, flame volume based LBO predictions are more accurate. Although LBO prediction accuracy has improved, it poses a challenge associated with Vf estimation in real gas turbine combustors. This work extends the approach of flame volume prediction previously based on fuel iterative approximation with cold flow simulations to reactive flow simulations. Flame volume for 11 combustor configurations has been simulated and validated against experimental data. To make prediction methodology robust as required in the preliminary design stage, reactive flow simulations were carried out with the combination of probability density function (PDF) and discrete phase model (DPM) in FLUENT 15.0. The criterion for flame identification was defined. Two important parameters i.e. critical injection diameter (Dp,crit) and critical temperature (Tcrit) were identified, and their influence on reactive flow simulation was studied for Vf estimation. Obtained results exhibit ±15% error in Vf estimation with experimental data.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, gas turbine combustor, lean blowout

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Authors: Aasheesh Raturi, Vimal Kothiyal, P. D. Semalty

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We studied mechanical properties of Eucalyptus tereticornis using FT-NIR spectroscopy. Firstly, spectra were pre-processed to eliminate useless information. Then, prediction model was constructed by partial least squares regression. To study the influence of pre-processing on prediction of mechanical properties for NIR analysis of wood samples, we applied various pretreatment methods like straight line subtraction, constant offset elimination, vector-normalization, min-max normalization, multiple scattering. Correction, first derivative, second derivatives and their combination with other treatment such as First derivative + straight line subtraction, First derivative+ vector normalization and First derivative+ multiplicative scattering correction. The data processing methods in combination of preprocessing with different NIR regions, RMSECV, RMSEP and optimum factors/rank were obtained by optimization process of model development. More than 350 combinations were obtained during optimization process. More than one pre-processing method gave good calibration/cross-validation and prediction/test models, but only the best calibration/cross-validation and prediction/test models are reported here. The results show that one can safely use NIR region between 4000 to 7500 cm-1 with straight line subtraction, constant offset elimination, first derivative and second derivative preprocessing method which were found to be most appropriate for models development.

Keywords: FT-NIR, mechanical properties, pre-processing, PLS

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Authors: Tomas Vampola, Michael Valášek

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On the basis of simulation-generated failure states of structural elements of a turboprop engine suitable for the busy-jet class of aircraft, an algorithm for early prediction of damage or reduction in functionality of structural elements of the engine is designed and verified with real data obtained at dynamometric testing facilities of aircraft engines. Based on an expanding database of experimentally determined data from temperature and pressure sensors during the operation of turboprop engines, this strategy is constantly modified with the aim of using the minimum number of sensors to detect an inadmissible or deteriorated operating mode of specific structural elements of an aircraft engine. The assembled algorithm for the early prediction of reduced functionality of the aircraft engine significantly contributes to the safety of air traffic and to a large extent, contributes to the economy of operation with positive effects on the reduction of the energy demand of operation and the elimination of adverse effects on the environment.

Keywords: detectability of malfunction, dynamometric testing, prediction of damage, turboprop engine

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.

Keywords: tomato yield prediction, naive Bayes, redundancy, WSG

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Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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Authors: Karolína Vozková, Matěj Kuc

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This paper analyzes recent trends in cost efficiency of European cooperative banks using efficient frontier analysis. Our methodology is based on stochastic frontier analysis which is run on a set of 649 European cooperative banks using data between 2006 and 2015. Our results show that average inefficiency of European cooperative banks is increasing since 2008, smaller cooperative banks are significantly more efficient than the bigger ones over the whole time period and that share of net fee and commission income to total income surprisingly seems to have no impact on bank cost efficiency.

Keywords: cooperative banks, cost efficiency, efficient frontier analysis, stochastic frontier analysis, net fee and commission income

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Authors: Phawichsak Prapassornpitaya, Wanida Jinsart

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Daily monitoring PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ data from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed to provide baseline data for prediction of the air pollution in Bangkok in the period of 2018 -2020. Two statistical models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) were used to evaluate the trends of pollutions. The prediction concentrations were tested by root means square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IOA). This evaluation of the traffic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ were studied in association with the regulatory control and emission standard changes. The emission factors of particulate matter from diesel vehicles were decreased when applied higher number of euro standard. The trends of ambient air pollutions were expected to decrease. However, the Bangkok smog episode in February 2018 with temperature inversion caused high concentration of PM₂.₅ in the air environment of Bangkok. The impact of traffic pollutants was depended upon the emission sources, temperature variations, and metrological conditions.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, ARIMA, RMSE, Bangkok

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Authors: S. M. Gupta, Vanita Aggarwal, Som Nath Sachdeva

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The work reported through this paper is an experimental work conducted on High Performance Concrete (HPC) with super plasticizer with the aim to develop some models suitable for prediction of compressive strength of HPC mixes. In this study, the effect of varying proportions of fly ash (0% to 50% at 10% increment) on compressive strength of high performance concrete has been evaluated. The mix designs studied were M30, M40 and M50 to compare the effect of fly ash addition on the properties of these concrete mixes. In all eighteen concrete mixes have been designed, three as conventional concretes for three grades under discussion and fifteen as HPC with fly ash with varying percentages of fly ash. The concrete mix designing has been done in accordance with Indian standard recommended guidelines i.e. IS: 10262. All the concrete mixes have been studied in terms of compressive strength at 7 days, 28 days, 90 days and 365 days. All the materials used have been kept same throughout the study to get a perfect comparison of values of results. The models for compressive strength prediction have been developed using Linear Regression method (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Leave One Out Validation (LOOV) methods.

Keywords: high performance concrete, fly ash, concrete mixes, compressive strength, strength prediction models, linear regression, ANN

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Authors: Zhaoan Wang

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Research in predictive maintenance modeling has improved in the recent years to predict failures and needed maintenance with high accuracy, saving cost and improving manufacturing efficiency. However, classic prediction models provide little valuable insight towards the most important features contributing to the failure. By analyzing and quantifying feature importance in predictive maintenance models, cost saving can be optimized based on business goals. First, multiple classifiers are evaluated with cross-validation to predict the multi-class of failures. Second, predictive performance with features provided by different feature selection algorithms are further analyzed. Third, features selected by different algorithms are ranked and combined based on their predictive power. Finally, linear explainer SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is applied to interpret classifier behavior and provide further insight towards the specific roles of features in both local predictions and global model behavior. The results of the experiments suggest that certain features play dominant roles in predictive models while others have significantly less impact on the overall performance. Moreover, for multi-class prediction of machine failures, the most important features vary with type of machine failures. The results may lead to improved productivity and cost saving by prioritizing sensor deployment, data collection, and data processing of more important features over less importance features.

Keywords: automated supply chain, intelligent manufacturing, predictive maintenance machine learning, feature engineering, model interpretation

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Authors: Chen Yong, Bi Wangyang, Zang Libin, Li Jinkai, Cheng Xiaowei, Liu Jinmin, Yu Miao

Abstract:

New energy vehicle power transmission systems continue to develop in the direction of high torque, high speed, and high efficiency. The cooling and lubrication of the motor and the transmission system are integrated, and new requirements are placed on the lubricants for the transmission system. The effects of traditional lubricants and special lubricants for new energy vehicles on transmission efficiency were studied through experiments and simulation methods. A mathematical model of the transmission efficiency of the lubricating oil in the gearbox was established. The power loss of each part was analyzed according to the working conditions. The relationship between the speed and the characteristics of different lubricating oil products on the power loss of the stirring oil was discussed. The minimum oil film thickness was required for the life of the gearbox. The accuracy of the calculation results was verified by the transmission efficiency test conducted on the two-motor integrated test bench. The results show that the efficiency increases first and then decreases with the increase of the speed and decreases with the increase of the kinematic viscosity of the lubricant. The increase of the kinematic viscosity amplifies the transmission power loss caused by the high speed. New energy vehicle special lubricants have less attenuation of transmission efficiency in the range above mid-speed. The research results provide a theoretical basis and guidance for the evaluation and selection of transmission efficiency of gearbox lubricants for new energy vehicles.

Keywords: new energy vehicles, lubricants, transmission efficiency, kinematic viscosity, test and simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

Abstract:

The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: angle of internal friction, cone penetrating test, general regression neural network, soil modulus of elasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Suzan Anwar, Utkarsh Goyal

Abstract:

Heart rate (HR) is a predictor of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and all-cause mortality in the general population, as well as in patients with cardio and cerebrovascular diseases. Machine learning (ML) significantly improves the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others. This research examines relationship between the individual's various heart health inputs like age, sex, cp, trestbps, thalach, oldpeaketc, and the likelihood of developing heart disease. Machine learning techniques like logistic regression and decision tree, and Python are used. The results of testing and evaluating the model using the Heart Failure Prediction Dataset show the chance of a person having a heart disease with variable accuracy. Logistic regression has yielded an accuracy of 80.48% without data handling. With data handling (normalization, standardscaler), the logistic regression resulted in improved accuracy of 87.80%, decision tree 100%, random forest 100%, and SVM 100%.

Keywords: heart rate, machine learning, SVM, decision tree, logistic regression, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Wisam K. Hussam, Ali Alfeeli, Gergory J. Sheard

Abstract:

Solar panels that use photovoltaic (PV) cells are popular for converting solar radiation into electricity. One of the major problems impacting the performance of PV panels is the overheating caused by excessive solar radiation and high ambient temperatures, which degrades the efficiency of the PV panels remarkably. To overcome this issue, an aluminum heat sink was used to dissipate unwanted heat from PV cells. The dimensions of the heat sink were determined considering the optimal fin spacing that fulfils hot climatic conditions. In this study, the effects of cooling on the efficiency and power output of a PV panel were studied experimentally. Two PV modules were used: one without and one with a heat sink. The experiments ran for 11 hours from 6:00 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. where temperature readings in the rear and front of both PV modules were recorded at an interval of 15 minutes using sensors and an Arduino microprocessor. Results are recorded for both panels simultaneously for analysis, temperate comparison, and for power and efficiency calculations. A maximum increase in the solar to electrical conversion efficiency of 35% and almost 55% in the power output were achieved with the use of a heat sink, while temperatures at the front and back of the panel were reduced by 9% and 11%, respectively.

Keywords: photovoltaic cell, natural convection, heat sink, efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 123