Search results for: alternating minimization

Authors: Abdulwhab Alotaibi, Abdullah Alzahrani, Ziyad Bokhari, Abdulelah Alghamdi

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First described in 1975 by Dr. Miller, Medical dressings are uncommon but possible cause of hand digital ischemia due the tourniquet-like effect. The incident of this complication has been reported across wide range of age-groups, yet it seems like that the pediatric population are specifically vulnerable. Multiple dressing types were reported to have caused ischemic injury, such as elastic wrap, tubular gauze, and self-adherent dressings. We present a case of medical dressing induced digital ischemia in patient with Congenital insensitivity to pain and anhidrosis (CIPA), which further challenge the discovery of the condition. An 8-year-old girl known case of CIPA. Brought by her mother to the ER after nail bed injury, which she managed by application of elastic wrap that was left for 24 hours. When the mother found out she immediately removed the elastic band, and noticed the fingertip was black and cold with tense bullae. The color then changed later when she arrived to the ER to dark purple with bluish discoloration on the tip. On examination there was well demarcated tense bullae on the distal right fifth finger. Neurovascular intact, pulse oximetry on distal digit 100%, capillary refill time was delayed. She was seen under Plastic surgery and conservative management recommended, and patient was discharged with safety netting. Two days later the patient came as follow-up visit at which her condition demonstrated significant improvement, the bullae has since ruptured leaving behind sloughed skin, capillary refill and pulse oximetry were both within normal limits, sensory function couldn’t be assessed but her motor function and ROM were normal, topical bacitracin and bandage dressings were applied for the eroded skin. Patient was scheduled for a follow-up in 2 weeks. Preventatively it’s advisable to avoid the commonly implicated dressings such as elastic, tubular gauze or self-adherent wraps in hand or digital injuries when possible, but in cases where the use of these dressings is of necessity the appropriate precautions must be taken, Dr. Makarewich proposed the following 5 measures to help minimize the incidence of the injury: 1-Unwrapping 12 inches of the dressing before rolling the injured finger. 2-Wrapping from distal to proximal with minimal tension to avoid vascular embarrassment. 3-The use of 5-25 inch to overlap the entire wrap. 4-Maintaining light pressure over the wrap to allow adherence of the dressing. 5-Minimization of the number of layers used to wrap the affected digit. Also assessing the capillary refill after the application can help in determining the patency of the supplying blood vessels. It’s also important to selectively determine if the patient is a candidate for conservative management, as tailored approach can help in maximizing the positive outcomes for our patients.

Keywords: congenital insensitivity to pain, digital ischemia, medical dressing, conservative management

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Authors: Jeremie Coullon, Robert J. Webber

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We introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sam-pler for infinite-dimensional inverse problems. Our sam-pler is based on the affine invariant ensemble sampler, which uses interacting walkers to adapt to the covariance structure of the target distribution. We extend this ensem-ble sampler for the first time to infinite-dimensional func-tion spaces, yielding a highly efficient gradient-free MCMC algorithm. Because our ensemble sampler does not require gradients or posterior covariance estimates, it is simple to implement and broadly applicable. In many Bayes-ian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) meth-ods are needed to approximate distributions on infinite-dimensional function spaces, for example, in groundwater flow, medical imaging, and traffic flow. Yet designing efficient MCMC methods for function spaces has proved challenging. Recent gradi-ent-based MCMC methods preconditioned MCMC methods, and SMC methods have improved the computational efficiency of functional random walk. However, these samplers require gradi-ents or posterior covariance estimates that may be challenging to obtain. Calculating gradients is difficult or impossible in many high-dimensional inverse problems involving a numerical integra-tor with a black-box code base. Additionally, accurately estimating posterior covariances can require a lengthy pilot run or adaptation period. These concerns raise the question: is there a functional sampler that outperforms functional random walk without requir-ing gradients or posterior covariance estimates? To address this question, we consider a gradient-free sampler that avoids explicit covariance estimation yet adapts naturally to the covariance struc-ture of the sampled distribution. This sampler works by consider-ing an ensemble of walkers and interpolating and extrapolating between walkers to make a proposal. This is called the affine in-variant ensemble sampler (AIES), which is easy to tune, easy to parallelize, and efficient at sampling spaces of moderate dimen-sionality (less than 20). The main contribution of this work is to propose a functional ensemble sampler (FES) that combines func-tional random walk and AIES. To apply this sampler, we first cal-culate the Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion for the Bayesian prior distribution, assumed to be Gaussian and trace-class. Then, we use AIES to sample the posterior distribution on the low-wavenumber KL components and use the functional random walk to sample the posterior distribution on the high-wavenumber KL components. Alternating between AIES and functional random walk updates, we obtain our functional ensemble sampler that is efficient and easy to use without requiring detailed knowledge of the target dis-tribution. In past work, several authors have proposed splitting the Bayesian posterior into low-wavenumber and high-wavenumber components and then applying enhanced sampling to the low-wavenumber components. Yet compared to these other samplers, FES is unique in its simplicity and broad applicability. FES does not require any derivatives, and the need for derivative-free sam-plers has previously been emphasized. FES also eliminates the requirement for posterior covariance estimates. Lastly, FES is more efficient than other gradient-free samplers in our tests. In two nu-merical examples, we apply FES to challenging inverse problems that involve estimating a functional parameter and one or more scalar parameters. We compare the performance of functional random walk, FES, and an alternative derivative-free sampler that explicitly estimates the posterior covariance matrix. We conclude that FES is the fastest available gradient-free sampler for these challenging and multimodal test problems.

Keywords: Bayesian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo, infinite-dimensional inverse problems, dimensionality reduction

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Authors: Muzaffar Shaikh, Shoaib Shaikh, Mark Moyou, Gaby Hawat

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This paper presents the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in evaluating the site selection of a new plant by a corporation. Due to intense competition at a global level, multinational corporations are continuously striving to minimize production and shipping costs of their products. One key factor that plays significant role in cost minimization is where the production plant is located. In the U.S. for example, labor and land costs continue to be very high while they are much cheaper in countries such as India, China, Indonesia, etc. This is why many multinational U.S. corporations (e.g. General Electric, Caterpillar Inc., Ford, General Motors, etc.), have shifted their manufacturing plants outside. The continued expansion of the Internet and its availability along with technological advances in computer hardware and software all around the globe have facilitated U.S. corporations to expand abroad as they seek to reduce production cost. In particular, management of multinational corporations is constantly engaged in concentrating on countries at a broad level, or cities within specific countries where certain or all parts of their end products or the end products themselves can be manufactured cheaper than in the U.S. AHP is based on preference ratings of a specific decision maker who can be the Chief Operating Officer of a company or his/her designated data analytics engineer. It serves as a tool to first evaluate the plant site selection criteria and second, alternate plant sites themselves against these criteria in a systematic manner. Examples of site selection criteria are: Transportation Modes, Taxes, Energy Modes, Labor Force Availability, Labor Rates, Raw Material Availability, Political Stability, Land Costs, etc. As a necessary first step under AHP, evaluation criteria and alternate plant site countries are identified. Depending upon the fidelity of analysis, specific cities within a country can also be chosen as alternative facility locations. AHP experience in this type of analysis indicates that the initial analysis can be performed at the Country-level. Once a specific country is chosen via AHP, secondary analyses can be performed by selecting specific cities or counties within a country. AHP analysis is usually based on preferred ratings of a decision-maker (e.g., 1 to 5, 1 to 7, or 1 to 9, etc., where 1 means least preferred and a 5 means most preferred). The decision-maker assigns preferred ratings first, criterion vs. criterion and creates a Criteria Matrix. Next, he/she assigns preference ratings by alternative vs. alternative against each criterion. Once this data is collected, AHP is applied to first get the rank-ordering of criteria. Next, rank-ordering of alternatives is done against each criterion resulting in an Alternative Matrix. Finally, overall rank ordering of alternative facility locations is obtained by matrix multiplication of Alternative Matrix and Criteria Matrix. The most practical aspect of AHP is the ‘what if’ analysis that the decision-maker can conduct after the initial results to provide valuable sensitivity information of specific criteria to other criteria and alternatives.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, multinational corporations, plant site selection, preference ratings

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Michel Pons, Anthony Delahaye, Laurence Fournaison

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Secondary refrigeration consists of splitting large-size direct-cooling units into volume-limited primary cooling units complemented by secondary loops for transporting and distributing cold. Such a design reduces the refrigerant leaks, which represents a source of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. However, inserting the secondary circuit between the primary unit and the ‘users’ heat exchangers (UHX) increases the energy consumption of the whole process, which induces an indirect emission of greenhouse gases. It is thus important to check whether that efficiency loss is sufficiently limited for the change to be globally beneficial to the environment. Among the likely secondary fluids, phase change slurries offer several advantages: they transport latent heat, they stabilize the heat exchange temperature, and the formerly evaporators still can be used as UHX. The temperature level can also be adapted to the desired cooling application. Herein, the slurry {ice in mono-propylene-glycol solution} (melting temperature Tₘ of 6°C) is considered for food preservation, and the slurry {mixed hydrate of CO₂ + tetra-n-butyl-phosphonium-bromide in aqueous solution of this salt + CO₂} (melting temperature Tₘ of 13°C) is considered for air conditioning. For the sake of thermodynamic consistency, the analysis encompasses the whole process, primary cooling unit plus secondary slurry loop, and the various properties of the slurries, including their non-Newtonian viscosity. The design of the whole process is optimized according to the properties of the chosen slurry and under explicit constraints. As a first constraint, all the units must deliver the same cooling power to the user. The other constraints concern the heat exchanges areas, which are prescribed, and the flow conditions, which prevent deposition of the solid particles transported in the slurry, and their agglomeration. Minimization of the total energy consumption leads to the optimal design. In addition, the results are analyzed in terms of exergy losses, which allows highlighting the couplings between the primary unit and the secondary loop. One important difference between the ice-slurry and the mixed-hydrate one is the presence of gaseous carbon dioxide in the latter case. When the mixed-hydrate crystals melt in the UHX, CO₂ vapor is generated at a rate that depends on the phase change kinetics. The flow in the UHX, and its heat and mass transfer properties are significantly modified. This effect has never been investigated before. Lastly, inserting the secondary loop between the primary unit and the users increases the temperature difference between the refrigerated space and the evaporator. This results in a loss of global energy efficiency, and therefore in an increased energy consumption. The analysis shows that this loss of efficiency is not critical in the first case (Tₘ = 6°C), while the second case leads to more ambiguous results, partially because of the higher melting temperature.The consequences in terms of greenhouse gases emissions are also analyzed.

Keywords: exergy, hydrates, optimization, phase change material, thermodynamics

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Authors: Anastasia Tsakiridi

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Geographic information systems (GIS) have been utilized in numerous spatial problems, such as site research, land suitability, and demographic analysis. Besides, GIS has been applied in scientific fields like geography, health, and economics. In business studies, GIS has been used to provide insights and spatial perspectives in demographic trends, spending indicators, and network analysis. To date, the information regarding the available usages of GIS in supply chain management (SCM) and how these analyses can benefit businesses is limited. A systematic literature review (SLR) of the last 5-year peer-reviewed academic literature was conducted, aiming to explore the existing usages of GIS in SCM. The searches were performed in 3 databases (Web of Science, ProQuest, and Business Source Premier) and reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. The analysis resulted in 79 papers. The results indicate that the existing GIS applications used in SCM were in the following domains: a) network/ transportation analysis (in 53 of the papers), b) location – allocation site search/ selection (multiple-criteria decision analysis) (in 45 papers), c) spatial analysis (demographic or physical) (in 34 papers), d) combination of GIS and supply chain/network optimization tools (in 32 papers), and e) visualization/ monitoring or building information modeling applications (in 8 papers). An additional categorization of the literature was conducted by examining the usage of GIS in the supply chain (SC) by the business sectors, as indicated by the volume of the papers. The results showed that GIS is mainly being applied in the SC of the biomass biofuel/wood industry (33 papers). Other industries that are currently utilizing GIS in their SC were the logistics industry (22 papers), the humanitarian/emergency/health care sector (10 papers), the food/agro-industry sector (5 papers), the petroleum/ coal/ shale gas sector (3 papers), the faecal sludge sector (2 papers), the recycle and product footprint industry (2 papers), and the construction sector (2 papers). The results were also presented by the geography of the included studies and the GIS software used to provide critical business insights and suggestions for future research. The results showed that research case studies of GIS in SCM were conducted in 26 countries (mainly in the USA) and that the most prominent GIS software provider was the Environmental Systems Research Institute’s ArcGIS (in 51 of the papers). This study is a systematic literature review of the usage of GIS in SCM. The results showed that the GIS capabilities could offer substantial benefits in SCM decision-making by providing key insights to cost minimization, supplier selection, facility location, SC network configuration, and asset management. However, as presented in the results, only eight industries/sectors are currently using GIS in their SCM activities. These findings may offer essential tools to SC managers who seek to optimize the SC activities and/or minimize logistic costs and to consultants and business owners that want to make strategic SC decisions. Furthermore, the findings may be of interest to researchers aiming to investigate unexplored research areas where GIS may improve SCM.

Keywords: supply chain management, logistics, systematic literature review, GIS

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Authors: S. Cichosz, A. Masek

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A new cellulose hybrid modification approach, which is undoubtedly a scientific novelty, is introduced. The study reports the properties of cellulose (Arbocel UFC100 – Ultra Fine Cellulose) and characterizes cellulose filled polymer composites based on an ethylene-norbornene copolymer (TOPAS Elastomer E-140). Moreover, the approach of physicochemical two-stage cellulose treatment is introduced: solvent exchange (to ethanol or hexane) and further chemical modification with maleic anhydride (MA). Furthermore, the impact of the drying process on cellulose properties was investigated. Suitable measurements were carried out to characterize cellulose fibers: spectroscopic investigation (Fourier Transform Infrared Spektrofotometer-FTIR, Near InfraRed spectroscopy-NIR), thermal analysis (Differential scanning calorimetry, Thermal gravimetric analysis ) and Karl Fischer titration. It should be emphasized that for all UFC100 treatments carried out, a decrease in moisture content was evidenced. FT-IR reveals a drop in absorption band intensity at 3334 cm-1, the peak is associated with both –OH moieties and water. Similar results were obtained with Karl Fischer titration. Based on the results obtained, it may be claimed that the employment of ethanol contributes greatly to the lowering of cellulose water absorption ability (decrease of moisture content to approximately 1.65%). Additionally, regarding polymer composite properties, crucial data has been obtained from the mechanical and thermal analysis. The highest material performance was noted in the case of the composite sample that contained cellulose modified with MA after a solvent exchange with ethanol. This specimen exhibited sufficient tensile strength, which is almost the same as that of the neat polymer matrix – in the region of 40 MPa. Moreover, both the Payne effect and filler efficiency factor, calculated based on dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), reveal the possibility of the filler having a reinforcing nature. What is also interesting is that, according to the Payne effect results, fibers dried before the further chemical modification are assumed to allow more regular filler structure development in the polymer matrix (Payne effect maximum at 1.60 MPa), compared with those not dried (Payne effect in the range 0.84-1.26 MPa). Furthermore, taking into consideration the data gathered from DSC and TGA, higher thermal stability is obtained in case of the materials filled with fibers that were dried before the carried out treatments (degradation activation energy in the region of 195 kJ/mol) in comparison with the polymer composite samples filled with unmodified cellulose (degradation activation energy of approximately 180 kJ/mol). To author’s best knowledge this work results in the introduction of a novel, new filler hybrid treatment approach. Moreover, valuable data regarding the properties of composites filled with cellulose fibers of various moisture contents have been provided. It should be emphasized that plant fiber-based polymer bio-materials described in this research might contribute significantly to polymer waste minimization because they are more readily degraded.

Keywords: cellulose fibers, solvent exchange, moisture content, ethylene-norbornene copolymer

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Authors: Pawel Martynowicz

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Vibrations are a crucial problem for slender structures such as towers, masts, chimneys, wind turbines, bridges, high buildings, etc., that is why most of them are equipped with vibration attenuation or fatigue reduction solutions. In this work, a slender structure (i.e., wind turbine tower-nacelle model) equipped with nonlinear, semiactive tuned vibration absorber(s) is analyzed. For this study purposes, magnetorheological (MR) dampers are used as semiactive actuators. Several optimal-based approaches to structural vibration attenuation are investigated against the standard ‘ground-hook’ law and passive tuned vibration absorber(s) implementations. The common approach to optimal control of nonlinear systems is offline computation of the optimal solution, however, so determined open loop control suffers from lack of robustness to uncertainties (e.g., unmodelled dynamics, perturbations of external forces or initial conditions), and thus perturbation control techniques are often used. However, proper linearization may be an issue for highly nonlinear systems with implicit relations between state, co-state, and control. The main contribution of the author is the development as well as numerical and experimental verification of the Pontriagin maximum-principle-based vibration control concepts that produce directly actuator control input (not the demanded force), thus force tracking algorithm that results in control inaccuracy is entirely omitted. These concepts, including one-step optimal control, quasi-optimal control, and optimal-based modified ‘ground-hook’ law, can be directly implemented in online and real-time feedback control for periodic (or semi-periodic) disturbances with invariant or time-varying parameters, as well as for non-periodic, transient or random disturbances, what is a limitation for some other known solutions. No offline calculation, excitations/disturbances assumption or vibration frequency determination is necessary, moreover, all of the nonlinear actuator (MR damper) force constraints, i.e., no active forces, lower and upper saturation limits, hysteresis-type dynamics, etc., are embedded in the control technique, thus the solution is optimal or suboptimal for the assumed actuator, respecting its limitations. Depending on the selected method variant, a moderate or decisive reduction in the computational load is possible compared to other methods of nonlinear optimal control, while assuring the quality and robustness of the vibration reduction system, as well as considering multi-pronged operational aspects, such as possible minimization of the amplitude of the deflection and acceleration of the vibrating structure, its potential and/or kinetic energy, required actuator force, control input (e.g. electric current in the MR damper coil) and/or stroke amplitude. The developed solutions are characterized by high vibration reduction efficiency – the obtained maximum values of the dynamic amplification factor are close to 2.0, while for the best of the passive systems, these values exceed 3.5.

Keywords: magnetorheological damper, nonlinear tuned vibration absorber, optimal control, real-time structural vibration attenuation, wind turbines

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Authors: Mehmet Salih Bayraktutan

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Geomechanical properties of Rock Salt Deposits in Tuzluca Salt Mine Area (Eastern Turkey) are studied for modeling the operation- excavation strategy. The purpose of this research focused on calculating the critical value of span height- which will meet the safety requirements. The Mine Site Tuzluca Hills consist of alternating parallel bedding of Salt ( NaCl ) and Gypsum ( CaS04 + 2 H20) rocks. Rock Salt beds are more resistant than narrow Gypsum interlayers. Rock Salt beds formed almost 97 percent of the total height of the Hill. Therefore, the geotechnical safety of Galleries depends on the mechanical criteria of Rock Salt Cores. General deposition of Tuzluca Basin was finally completed by Tuzluca Evaporites, as for the uppermost stratigraphic unit. They are currently running mining operations performed by classic mechanical excavation, room and pillar method. Rooms and Pillars are currently experiencing an initial stage of fracturing in places. Geotechnical safety of the whole mining area evaluated by Rock Mass Rating (RMR), Rock Quality Designation (RQD) spacing of joints, and the interaction of groundwater and fracture system. In general, bedded rock salt Show large lateral deformation capacity (while deformation modulus stays in relative small values, here E= 9.86 GPa). In such litho-stratigraphic environments, creep is a critical mechanism in failure. Rock Salt creep rate in steady-state is greater than interbedding layers. Under long-lasted compressive stresses, creep may cause shear displacements, partly using bedding planes. Eventually, steady-state creep in time returns to accelerated stages. Uniaxial compression creep tests on specimens were performed to have an idea of rock salt strength. To give an idea, on Rock Salt cores, average axial strength and strain are found as 18 - 24 MPa and 0.43-0.45 %, respectively. Uniaxial Compressive strength of 26- 32 MPa, from bedded rock salt cores. Elastic modulus is comparatively low, but lateral deformation of the rock salt is high under the uniaxial compression stress state. Poisson ratio = 0.44, break load = 156 kN, cohesion c= 12.8 kg/cm2, specific gravity SG=2.17 gr/cm3. Fracture System; spacing of fractures, joints, faults, offsets are evaluated under acting geodynamic mechanism. Two sand beds, each 4-6 m thick, exist near to upper level and at the top of the evaporating sequence. They act as aquifers and keep infiltrated water on top for a long duration, which may result in the failure of roofs or pillars. Two major active seismic ( N30W and N70E ) striking Fault Planes and parallel fracture strands have seismically triggered moderate risk of structural deformation of rock salt bedding sequence. Earthquakes and Floods are two prevailing sources of geohazards in this region—the seismotectonic activity of the Mine Site based on the crossing framework of Kagizman Faults and Igdir Faults. Dominant Hazard Risk sources include; a) Weak mechanical properties of rock salt, gypsum, anhydrite beds-creep. b) Physical discontinuities cutting across the thick parallel layers of Evaporite Mass, c) Intercalated beds of weak cemented or loose sand, clayey sandy sediments. On the other hand, absorbing the effects of salt-gyps parallel bedded deposits on seismic wave amplitudes has a reducing effect on the Rock Mass.

Keywords: bedded rock salt, creep, failure mechanism, geotechnical safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Carlos E. Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Karla Ruiz-Hidalgo, Kattia Madrigal-Zúñiga, Juan Salvador Chin-Pampillo, Mario Masís-Mora, Elizabeth Carazo-Rojas

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One of the main causes of contamination linked to agricultural activities is the spillage and disposal of pesticides, especially during the loading, mixing or cleaning of agricultural spraying equipment. One improvement in the handling of pesticides is the use of biopurification systems (BPS), simple and cheap degradation devices where the pesticides are biologically degraded at accelerated rates. The biologically active core of BPS is the biomixture, which is constituted by soil pre-exposed to the target pesticide, a lignocellulosic substrate to promote the activity of ligninolitic fungi and a humic component (peat or compost), mixed at a volumetric proportion of 50:25:25. Considering the known ability of lignocellulosic fungi to degrade a wide range of organic pollutants, and the high amount of lignocellulosic waste used in biomixture preparation, the bioaugmentation of biomixtures with these fungi represents an interesting approach for improving biomixtures. The present work aimed at evaluating the effect of the bioaugmentation of rice husk based biomixtures with the fungus Trametes versicolor in the removal of the insectice/nematicide carbofuran (CFN) and to optimize the composition of the biomixture to obtain the best performance in terms of CFN removal and mineralization, reduction in formation of transformation products and decrease in residual toxicity of the matrix. The evaluation of several lignocellulosic residues (rice husk, wood chips, coconut fiber, sugarcane bagasse or newspaper print) revealed the best colonization by T. versicolor in rice husk. Pre-colonized rice husk was then used in the bioaugmentation of biomixtures also containing soil pre-exposed to CFN and either peat (GTS biomixture) or compost (GCS biomixture). After spiking with 10 mg/kg CBF, the efficiency of the biomixture was evaluated through a multi-component approach that included: monitoring of CBF removal and production of CBF transformation products, mineralization of radioisotopically labeled carbofuran (14C-CBF) and changes in the toxicity of the matrix after the treatment (Daphnia magna acute immobilization test). Estimated half-lives of CBF in the biomixtures were 3.4 d and 8.1 d in GTS and GCS, respectively. The transformation products 3-hydroxycarbofuran and 3-ketocarbofuran were detected at the moment of CFN application, however their concentration continuously disappeared. Mineralization of 14C-CFN was also faster in GTS than GCS. The toxicological evaluation showed a complete toxicity removal in the biomixtures after 48 d of treatment. The composition of the GCS biomixture was optimized using a central composite design and response surface methodology. The design variables were the volumetric content of fungally pre-colonized rice husk and the volumetric ratio compost/soil. According to the response models, maximization of CFN removal and mineralization rate, and minimization in the accumulation of transformation products were obtained with an optimized biomixture of composition 30:43:27 (pre-colonized rice husk:compost:soil), which differs from the 50:25:25 composition commonly employed in BPS. Results suggest that fungal bioaugmentation may enhance the performance of biomixtures in CFN removal. Optimization reveals the importance of assessing new biomixture formulations in order to maximize their performance.

Keywords: bioaugmentation, biopurification systems, degradation, fungi, pesticides, toxicity

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: George Kyriakopoulos, Photini Pazartzis, Anthi Koskina, Crystalie Bourcha

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The need for securing safe access to and return from outer space, as well as ensuring the viability of outer space operations, maintains vivid the debate over the promotion of organization of space traffic through a Space Traffic Management System (STM). The proliferation of outer space activities in recent years as well as the dynamic emergence of the private sector has gradually resulted in a diverse universe of actors operating in outer space. The said developments created an increased adverse impact on outer space sustainability as the case of the growing number of space debris clearly demonstrates. The above landscape sustains considerable threats to outer space environment and its operators that need to be addressed by a combination of scientific-technological measures and regulatory interventions. In this context, recourse to recent technological advancements and, in particular, to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning systems, could achieve exponential results in promoting space traffic management with respect to collision avoidance as well as launch and re-entry procedures/phases. New technologies can support the prospects of a successful space traffic management system at an international scale by enabling, inter alia, timely, accurate and analytical processing of large data sets and rapid decision-making, more precise space debris identification and tracking and overall minimization of collision risks and reduction of operational costs. What is more, a significant part of space activities (i.e. launch and/or re-entry phase) takes place in airspace rather than in outer space, hence the overall discussion also involves the highly developed, both technically and legally, international (and national) Air Traffic Management System (ATM). Nonetheless, from a regulatory perspective, the use of AI for the purposes of space traffic management puts forward implications that merit particular attention. Key issues in this regard include the delimitation of AI-based activities as space activities, the designation of the applicable legal regime (international space or air law, national law), the assessment of the nature and extent of international legal obligations regarding space traffic coordination, as well as the appropriate liability regime applicable to AI-based technologies when operating for space traffic coordination, taking into particular consideration the dense regulatory developments at EU level. In addition, the prospects of institutionalizing international cooperation and promoting an international governance system, together with the challenges of establishment of a comprehensive international STM regime are revisited in the light of intervention of AI technologies. This paper aims at examining regulatory implications advanced by the use of AI technology in the context of space traffic management operations and its key correlating concepts (SSA, space debris mitigation) drawing in particular on international and regional considerations in the field of STM (e.g. UNCOPUOS, International Academy of Astronautics, European Space Agency, among other actors), the promising advancements of the EU approach to AI regulation and, last but not least, national approaches regarding the use of AI in the context of space traffic management, in toto. Acknowledgment: The present work was co-funded by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Human Resources Development, Education and Lifelong Learning " (NSRF 2014-2020), under the call "Supporting Researchers with an Emphasis on Young Researchers – Cycle B" (MIS: 5048145).

Keywords: artificial intelligence, space traffic management, space situational awareness, space debris

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Authors: Sergio Celaschi, Henrique Canavarro de Alencar, Claaudecir Biazoli

Abstract:

Effluent quality is of the highest priority for compliance with the permit limits of environmental protection agencies and ensures the protection of their local water system. Of the pollutants monitored, the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) posed one of the greatest challenges. This work presents a solution for wastewater treatment plants - WWTP’s ability to react to different situations and meet treatment goals. Delayed BOD5 results from the lab take 7 to 8 analysis days, hindered the WWTP’s ability to react to different situations and meet treatment goals. Reducing BOD turnaround time from days to hours is our quest. Such a solution is based on a system of two BOD bioreactors associated with Digital Twin (DT) and Machine Learning (ML) methodologies via an Internet of Things (IoT) platform to monitor and control a WWTP to support decision making. DT is a virtual and dynamic replica of a production process. DT requires the ability to collect and store real-time sensor data related to the operating environment. Furthermore, it integrates and organizes the data on a digital platform and applies analytical models allowing a deeper understanding of the real process to catch sooner anomalies. In our system of continuous time monitoring of the BOD suppressed by the effluent treatment process, the DT algorithm for analyzing the data uses ML on a chemical kinetic parameterized model. The continuous BOD monitoring system, capable of providing results in a fraction of the time required by BOD5 analysis, is composed of two thermally isolated batch bioreactors. Each bioreactor contains input/output access to wastewater sample (influent and effluent), hydraulic conduction tubes, pumps, and valves for batch sample and dilution water, air supply for dissolved oxygen (DO) saturation, cooler/heater for sample thermal stability, optical ODO sensor based on fluorescence quenching, pH, ORP, temperature, and atmospheric pressure sensors, local PLC/CPU for TCP/IP data transmission interface. The dynamic BOD system monitoring range covers 2 mg/L < BOD < 2,000 mg/L. In addition to the BOD monitoring system, there are many other operational WWTP sensors. The CPU data is transmitted/received to/from the digital platform, which in turn performs analyses at periodic intervals, aiming to feed the learning process. BOD bulletins and their credibility intervals are made available in 12-hour intervals to web users. The chemical kinetics ML algorithm is composed of a coupled system of four first-order ordinary differential equations for the molar masses of DO, organic material present in the sample, biomass, and products (CO₂ and H₂O) of the reaction. This system is solved numerically linked to its initial conditions: DO (saturated) and initial products of the kinetic oxidation process; CO₂ = H₂0 = 0. The initial values for organic matter and biomass are estimated by the method of minimization of the mean square deviations. A real case of continuous monitoring of BOD wastewater effluent quality is being conducted by deploying an IoT application on a large wastewater purification system located in S. Paulo, Brazil.

Keywords: effluent treatment, biochemical oxygen demand, continuous monitoring, IoT, machine learning

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Authors: Daniele Lerede, Gianvito Colucci, Matteo Nicoli, Laura Savoldi

Abstract:

The European Green Deal is the first internationally agreed set of measures to contrast climate change and environmental degradation. Besides the main target of reducing emissions by at least 55% by 2030, it sets the target of accompanying European countries through an energy transition to make the European Union into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive net-zero emissions economy by 2050, decoupling growth from the use of resources and ensuring a fair adaptation of all social categories to the transformation process. While the general purpose to allow the realization of the purposes of the Green Deal already dates back to 2019, strategies and policies keep being developed coping with recent circumstances and achievements. However, general long-term measures like the Circular Economy Action Plan, the proposals to shift from fossil natural gas to renewable and low-carbon gases, in particular biomethane and hydrogen, and to end the sale of gasoline and diesel cars by 2035, will all have significant effects on energy supply and demand evolution across the next decades. The interactions between energy supply and demand over long-term time frames are usually assessed via energy system models to derive useful insights for policymaking and to address technological choices and research and development. TEMOA-Europe is a newly developed energy system optimization model instance based on the minimization of the total cost of the system under analysis, adopting a technologically integrated, detailed, and explicit formulation and considering the evolution of the system in partial equilibrium in competitive markets with perfect foresight. TEMOA-Europe is developed on the TEMOA platform, an open-source modeling framework totally implemented in Python, therefore ensuring third-party verification even on large and complex models. TEMOA-Europe is based on a single-region representation of the European Union and EFTA countries on a time scale between 2005 and 2100, relying on a set of assumptions for socio-economic developments based on projections by the International Energy Outlook and a large technological dataset including 7 sectors: the upstream and power sectors for the production of all energy commodities and the end-use sectors, including industry, transport, residential, commercial and agriculture. TEMOA-Europe also includes an updated hydrogen module considering its production, storage, transportation, and utilization. Besides, it can rely on a wide set of innovative technologies, ranging from nuclear fusion and electricity plants equipped with CCS in the power sector to electrolysis-based steel production processes and steel in the industrial sector – with a techno-economic characterization based on public literature – to produce insightful energy scenarios and especially to cope with the very long analyzed time scale. The aim of this work is to examine in detail the scheme of measures and policies for the realization of the purposes of the Green Deal and to transform them into a set of constraints and new socio-economic development pathways. Based on them, TEMOA-Europe will be used to produce and comparatively analyze scenarios to assess the consequences of Green Deal-related measures on the future evolution of the energy mix over the whole energy system in an economic optimization environment.

Keywords: European Green Deal, energy system optimization modeling, scenario analysis, TEMOA-Europe

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Authors: Krystian Szczepanski, Sylwia Łaba

Abstract:

Production of fruit and vegetables, food cereals or oilseeds affects the natural environment via intake of nutrients being contained in the soil, use of the resources of water, fertilizers and food protection products, and energy. The limitation of the mentioned effects requires the introduction of techniques and methods for cultivation being friendly to the environment and counteracting losses and waste of agricultural raw materials as well as the appropriate management of food waste in every stage of the agri-food supply chain. The link to basic production includes obtaining a vegetal raw material and its storage in agricultural farm and transport to a collecting point. When the plants are ready to be harvested is the initial point; the stage before harvesting is not considered in the system of measuring and monitoring the food losses. The moment at which the raw material enters the stage of processing, i.e., its receipt at the gate of the processing plant, is considered as a final point of basic production. According to the Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 28 January 2002, Art. 2, “food” means any substance or product, intended to be, or reasonably expected to be consumed by humans. For the needs of the studies and their analysis, it was determined when raw material is considered as food – the plants (fruit, vegetables, cereals, oilseeds), after being harvested, arrive at storehouses. The aim of the studies was to determine the reasons for loss generation and to analyze the directions of their management in basic vegetal production in Poland in the years 2017 and 2018. The studies on food losses and waste in basic vegetal production were carried out in three sectors – fruit and vegetables, cereals and oilseeds. The studies of the basic production were conducted during the period of March-May 2019 at the territory of the whole country on a representative trail of 250 farms in each sector. The surveys were carried out using the questionnaires by the PAP method; the pollsters conducted the direct questionnaire interviews. From the conducted studies, it is followed that in 19% of the examined farms, any losses were not recorded during preparation, loading, and transport of the raw material to the manufacturing plant. In the farms, where the losses were indicated, the main reason in production of fruit and vegetables was rotting and it constituted more than 20% of the reported reasons, while in the case of cereals and oilseeds’ production, the respondents identified damages, moisture and pests as the most frequent reason. The losses and waste, generated in vegetal production as well as in processing and trade of fruit and vegetables, or cereal products should be appropriately managed or recovered. The respondents indicated composting (more than 60%) as the main direction of waste management in all categories. Animal feed and landfill sites were the other indicated directions of management. Prevention and minimization of loss generation are important in every stage of production as well as in basic production. When possessing the knowledge on the reasons for loss generation, we may introduce the preventive measures, mainly connected with the appropriate conditions and methods of the storage. Production of fruit and vegetables, food cereals or oilseeds affects the natural environment via intake of nutrients being contained in the soil, use of the resources of water, fertilizers and food protection products, and energy. The limitation of the mentioned effects requires the introduction of techniques and methods for cultivation being friendly to the environment and counteracting losses and waste of agricultural raw materials as well as the appropriate management of food waste in every stage of the agri-food supply chain. The link to basic production includes obtaining a vegetal raw material and its storage in agricultural farm and transport to a collecting point. The starting point is when the plants are ready to be harvested; the stage before harvesting is not considered in the system of measuring and monitoring the food losses. The successive stage is the transport of the collected crops to the collecting point or its storage and transport. The moment, at which the raw material enters the stage of processing, i.e. its receipt at the gate of the processing plant, is considered as a final point of basic production. Processing is understood as the change of the raw material into food products. According to the Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 28 January 2002, Art. 2, “food” means any substance or product, intended to be, or reasonably expected to be consumed by humans. It was determined (for the needs of the present studies) when raw material is considered as a food; it is the moment when the plants (fruit, vegetables, cereals, oilseeds), after being harvested, arrive at storehouses. The aim of the studies was to determine the reasons for loss generation and to analyze the directions of their management in basic vegetal production in Poland in the years 2017 and 2018. The studies on food losses and waste in basic vegetal production were carried out in three sectors – fruit and vegetables, cereals and oilseeds. The studies of the basic production were conducted during the period of March-May 2019 at the territory of the whole country on a representative trail of 250 farms in each sector. The surveys were carried out using the questionnaires by the PAPI (Paper & Pen Personal Interview) method; the pollsters conducted the direct questionnaire interviews. From the conducted studies, it is followed that in 19% of the examined farms, any losses were not recorded during preparation, loading, and transport of the raw material to the manufacturing plant. In the farms, where the losses were indicated, the main reason in production of fruit and vegetables was rotting and it constituted more than 20% of the reported reasons, while in the case of cereals and oilseeds’ production, the respondents identified damages, moisture, and pests as the most frequent reason. The losses and waste, generated in vegetal production as well as in processing and trade of fruit and vegetables, or cereal products should be appropriately managed or recovered. The respondents indicated composting (more than 60%) as the main direction of waste management in all categories. Animal feed and landfill sites were the other indicated directions of management. Prevention and minimization of loss generation are important in every stage of production as well as in basic production. When possessing the knowledge on the reasons for loss generation, we may introduce the preventive measures, mainly connected with the appropriate conditions and methods of the storage. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The article was prepared within the project: "Development of a waste food monitoring system and an effective program to rationalize losses and reduce food waste", acronym PROM implemented under the STRATEGIC SCIENTIFIC AND LEARNING PROGRAM - GOSPOSTRATEG financed by the National Center for Research and Development in accordance with the provisions of Gospostrateg1 / 385753/1/2018

Keywords: food losses, food waste, PAP method, vegetal production

Procedia PDF Downloads 86