Search results for: Hailu Sheferaw Ayele

Authors: Ashenafi Ayele, Shewit Haftu, Tesfalem Araya

Abstract:

Background: “Post-psychotic depression”, “post schizophrenic depression”, and “secondary depression” have been used to describe the occurrence of depressive symptoms during the chronic phase of schizophrenia. Post-psychotic depression is the most common cause of death due to suicide in schizophrenia patients. Overall lifetime risk for patients with schizophrenia is 50% for suicide attempts and 9-13% lifetime risk for completed suicide and also it is associated with poor prognosis and poor quality of life. Objective: To assess determinant of post psychotic depression in schizophrenia patients ACSH and Mekelle General Hospital, Tigray Ethiopia 2019. Methods: An institutional based unmatched case control study was conducted among 69 cases and 138 controls with the ratio of case to control 1 ratio 2. The sample is calculated using epi-info 3.1 to assess the determinant factors of post-psychotic depression in schizophrenia patients. The cases were schizophrenia patients who have been diagnosed at least for more than one-year stable for two months, and the controls are any patients who are diagnosed as schizophrenia patients. Study subjects were selected using a consecutive sampling technique. The Calgary depression scale for schizophrenia self-administered questionnaire was used. Before the interview, it was assessed the client’s capacity to give intended information using a scale called the University of California, San Diego Brief Assessment of Capacity to Consent (UBACC). Bivariant and multiple Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine between the independent and dependent variables. The significant independent predictor was declared at 95% confidence interval and P-value of less than 0.05. Result: Females were affected by post psychotic depression with the (AOR=2.01, 95%CI: 1.003- 4.012, P= 0.49).Patients who have mild form of positive symptom of schizophrenia affected by post psychotic depression with (AOR =4.05, 95%CI: 1.888- 8.7.8, P=0001).Patients who have minimal form of negative symptom of schizophrenia are affected by post psychotic depression with (AOR =4.23, 95%CI: 1.081-17.092, P=.038). Conclusion: In this study, sex (female) and presence of positive and negative symptoms of schizophrenia were significantly associated. It is recommended that the post psychotic depression should be assessed in every schizophrenia patient to decrease the severity of illness, and to improve patient’s quality of life.

Keywords: determinants, post-psychotic depression, Mekelle city

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Authors: Lidya Hailu, Ramesh Duraisamy, Masood Akhtar Khan, Belete Yilma

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Disposable food packaging is a single-use plastics that can include any disposable plastic item which could be designed and use only once. In this context, this study aimed to prepare and evaluate bioplastic food packaging material from avocado seed starch and sugarcane bagasse cellulose and to characterise avocado seed starch. Performed the physicomechanical, structural, thermal properties, and biodegradability of raw materials and readily prepared bioplastic using the universal tensile testing machine, FTIR, UV-Vis spectroscopy, TGA, XRD, and SEM. Results have shown that an increasing amount of glycerol (3-5 mL) resulted in increases in water absorption, density, water vapor permeability, and elongation at the break of prepared bioplastic. However, it causes decreases in % transmittance, thermal degradation, and the tensile strength of prepared bioplastic. Likewise, the addition of cellulose fiber (0-15 %) increases % transmittance ranged (91.34±0.12-63.03±0.05 %), density (0.93±0.04-1.27±0.02 g/cm3), thermal degradation (310.01-321.61°C), tensile strength (2.91±6.18-4.21±6.713 MPa) of prepared bioplastic. On the other hand, it causes decreases in water absorption (14.4±0.25-9.40±0.007 %), water vapor permeability (9.306x10-12±0.3-3.57x10-12±0.15 g•s−1•m−1•Pa−1) and elongation at break (34.46±3.37-27.63±5.67 %) of prepared bioplastic. All the readily prepared bioplastic films rapidly degraded in the soil in the first 6 days and decompose within 12 days with a diminutive leftover and completely degraded within 15 days under an open soil atmosphere. Studied results showed starch derived bioplastic reinforced with 15 % cellulose fiber that plasticized with 3 mL of glycerol had improved results than other combinations of glycerol and bagasse cellulose with avocado seed starch. Thus, biodegradable disposable food packaging cup has been successfully produced in the lab-scale level using the studied approach. Biodegradable disposable food packaging materials have been successfully produced by employing avocado seed starch and sugarcane bagasse cellulose. The future study should be done on nano scale production since this study was done at the micro level.

Keywords: avocado seed, food packaging, glycerol, sugarcane bagasse

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.

Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Mekonen Hailu, Liu Liping

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Cage aquaculture is highly preferred due to higher production per unit volume of water, lower costs of investment, and simpler routine farm management procedures compared to pond systems. In the 1980s, cage culture was first used on a trial basis in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past 20 years, a small number of prosperous freshwater cage culture operations have started to emerge in Egypt, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Brackish and marine cage culture also offers a lot of potential, although this subsector hasn't seen any significant commercial growth to date. In 2019, 263 cage aquaculture installations on the African inland waters on 18 water bodies within eight countries with an estimated 20,114 cages were reported. The lakes Victoria, Kariba, Volta, and River Volta, which together account for 82.9% of all cage aquaculture installations regarded as sub-Saharan Africa's principal cage aquaculture regions (Fig 1). Except few small-scale trials with North African catfish (Clarias gariepinus), almost all farms in Sub-Saharan Africa and Egypt grow Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). More than 247,398 tonnes of fish are produced yearly from ten African countries through cage aquaculture. The expansion of cage culture in Africa provides job opportunities for both skilled and unskilled workers, nutritious food and foreign currency. The escaping non-native strains of tilapia in Lake Volta and the occurrence of a risky Tilapia lake virus (syncytial hepatitis), which has the potential to wipe out entire populations in both wild and farmed Nile tilapia on Lake Victoria, are threats coming with the expansion of cage aquaculture in Africa. In addition, the installations of 138 cage aquacultures were found in contrary to best cage culture practices. To sustain cage aquaculture development and maintain harmony with other water uses, developers must strictly abide by best practices. Hence, the exclusion of protected areas and small lakes (average depth 5 m or less) should be done, as well an Environmental Impact Assessment should be conducted before establishing the cage farms.

Keywords: Africa, cage aquaculture, production, threats

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Authors: Ayele Tamene

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Cultural heritage is the legacy of physical artifacts and intangible attributes of a group or society that are inherited from past generations, maintained in the present and bestowed for the benefit of future generations. Tangible heritage e includes buildings and historic places, monuments, artifacts, etc., which are considered worthy of preservation for the future. These include objects significant to the archaeology, architecture, science or technology of a specific culture. The research addressed the challenges and prospects of preservation of tangible cultural heritage management in Lake Tana islands; Amahara Regional State. Specifically, the research inquired the major factors which affected tangible cultural heritage management, investigated how communities successfully involved in tangible cultural heritage management, and described the contribution of cultural management to tourism development. It employed qualitative research approaches to grasp the existing condition in the study area. Major techniques of data gathering such as in-depth interview, observation/photographing and Focus Group Discussion (FGDs) were used. Related documents collected through secondary sources were examined and analyzed. In Lake Tana Islands precious heritages such as ancient religious manuscripts (written since 9th century), sacral wall paintings, gold and silver Crosses, crowns and prestigious clothes of the various kings of the medieval and the 19th century are found. The study indicated that heritages in Tana islands were affected by both natural and manmade problems. In Lake Tana Islands, movable heritages were looted several times by foreign aggressors, tourists, and local people who serve there. Some heritages were affected by visitors by their camera flash light and hand touch. Most heritages in the Tana islands lacked community ownership and preserved non- professionally which highly affected their originality and authenticity. Therefore, the local community and the regional government should work together in the preservation of these heritage sites and enhance their role for socio-economic development as a center of research and tourist destinations.

Keywords: cultural heritages, heritage preservation, lake Tana heritages, non professional preservation tangible heritages

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

Abstract:

a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Muluwerk Ayele Derebe

Abstract:

Background: Antenatal care (ANC) is an essential element in the continuum of reproductive health care for preventing preventable pregnancy-related morbidity and mortality. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the spatial pattern and predictors of ANC visits in Ethiopia. Method: This study was done using Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data of 2016 among 7,174 pregnant women aged 15-49 years which was a nationwide community-based cross-sectional survey. Spatial analysis was done using Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to identify hot and cold spot areas of ANC visits. Multilevel glmmTMB packages adjusted for spatial effects were used in R software. Spatial multilevel count regression was conducted to identify predictors of antenatal care visits for pregnant women, and proportional change in variance was done to uncover the effect of individual and community-level factors of ANC visits. Results: The distribution of ANC visits was spatially clustered Moran’s I = 0.271, p<.0.001, ICC = 0.497, p<0.001). The highest spatial outlier areas of ANC visit was found in Amhara (South Wollo, Weast Gojjam, North Shewa), Oromo (west Arsi and East Harariga), Tigray (Central Tigray) and Benishangul-Gumuz (Asosa and Metekel) regions. The data was found with excess zeros (34.6%) and over-dispersed. The expected ANC visit of pregnant women with pregnancy complications was higher at 0.7868 [ARR= 2.1964, 95% CI: 1.8605, 2.5928, p-value <0.0001] compared to pregnant women who had no pregnancy complications. The expected ANC visit of a pregnant woman who lived in a rural area was 1.2254 times higher [ARR=3.4057, 95% CI: 2.1462, 5.4041, p-value <0.0001] as compared to a pregnant woman who lived in an urban. The study found dissimilar clusters with a low number of zero counts for a mean number of ANC visits surrounded by clusters with a higher number of counts of an average number of ANC visits when other variables held constant. Conclusion: This study found that the number of ANC visits in Ethiopia had a spatial pattern associated with socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic risk factors. Spatial clustering of ANC visits exists in all regions of Ethiopia. The predictor age of the mother, religion, mother’s education, husband’s education, mother's occupation, husband's occupation, signs of pregnancy complication, wealth index and marital status had a strong association with the number of ANC visits by each individual. At the community level, place of residence, region, age of the mother, sex of the household head, signs of pregnancy complications and distance to health facility factors had a strong association with the number of ANC visits.

Keywords: Ethiopia, ANC, spatial, multilevel, zero inflated Poisson

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