Search results for: traffic signals
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2138

Search results for: traffic signals

8 Climate Change Threats to UNESCO-Designated World Heritage Sites: Empirical Evidence from Konso Cultural Landscape, Ethiopia

Authors: Yimer Mohammed Assen, Abiyot Legesse Kura, Engida Esyas Dube, Asebe Regassa Debelo, Girma Kelboro Mensuro, Lete Bekele Gure

Abstract:

Climate change has posed severe threats to many cultural landscapes of UNESCO world heritage sites recently. The UNESCO State of Conservation (SOC) reports categorized flooding, temperature increment, and drought as threats to cultural landscapes. This study aimed to examine variations and trends of rainfall and temperature extreme events and their threats to the UNESCO-designated Konso Cultural Landscape in southern Ethiopia. The study used dense merged satellite-gauge station rainfall data (1981-2020) with spatial resolution of 4km by 4km and observed maximum and minimum temperature data (1987-2020). Qualitative data were also gathered from cultural leaders, local administrators, and religious leaders using structured interview checklists. The spatial patterns, coefficient of variation, standardized anomalies, trends, and magnitude of change of rainfall and temperature extreme events both at annual and seasonal levels were computed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator under the CDT package. The standard precipitation index (SPI) was also used to calculate drought severity, frequency, and trend maps. The data gathered from key informant interviews and focus group discussions were coded and analyzed thematically to complement statistical findings. Thematic areas that explain the impacts of extreme events on the cultural landscape were chosen for coding. The thematic analysis was conducted using Nvivo software. The findings revealed that rainfall was highly variable and unpredictable, resulting in extreme drought and flood. There were significant (P<0.05) increasing trends of heavy rainfall (R10mm and R20mm) and the total amount of rain on wet days (PRCPTOT), which might have resulted in flooding. The study also confirmed that absolute temperature extreme indices (TXx, TXn, and TNx) and the percentile-based temperature extreme indices (TX90p, TN90p, TX10p, and TN10P) showed significant (P<0.05) increasing trends which are signals for warming of the study area. The results revealed that the frequency as well as the severity of drought at 3-months (katana/hageya seasons) was more pronounced than the 12-months (annual) time scale. The highest number of droughts in 100 years is projected at a 3-months timescale across the study area. The findings also showed that frequent drought has led to loss of grasses which are used for making traditional individual houses and multipurpose communal houses (pafta), food insecurity, migration, loss of biodiversity, and commodification of stones from terrace. On the other hand, the increasing trends of rainfall extreme indices resulted in destruction of terraces, soil erosion, loss of life and damage of properties. The study shows that a persistent decline in farmland productivity, due to erratic and extreme rainfall and frequent drought occurrences, forced the local people to participate in non-farm activities and retreat from daily preservation and management of their landscape. Overall, the increasing rainfall and temperature extremes coupled with prevalence of drought are thought to have an impact on the sustainability of cultural landscape through disrupting the ecosystem services and livelihood of the community. Therefore, more localized adaptation and mitigation strategies to the changing climate are needed to maintain the sustainability of Konso cultural landscapes as a global cultural treasure and to strengthen the resilience of smallholder farmers.

Keywords: adaptation, cultural landscape, drought, extremes indices

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7 Full Characterization of Heterogeneous Antibody Samples under Denaturing and Native Conditions on a Hybrid Quadrupole-Orbitrap Mass Spectrometer

Authors: Rowan Moore, Kai Scheffler, Eugen Damoc, Jennifer Sutton, Aaron Bailey, Stephane Houel, Simon Cubbon, Jonathan Josephs

Abstract:

Purpose: MS analysis of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) at the protein and peptide levels is critical during development and production of biopharmaceuticals. The compositions of current generation therapeutic proteins are often complex due to various modifications which may affect efficacy. Intact proteins analyzed by MS are detected in higher charge states that also provide more complexity in mass spectra. Protein analysis in native or native-like conditions with zero or minimal organic solvent and neutral or weakly acidic pH decreases charge state value resulting in mAb detection at higher m/z ranges with more spatial resolution. Methods: Three commercially available mAbs were used for all experiments. Intact proteins were desalted online using size exclusion chromatography (SEC) or reversed phase chromatography coupled on-line with a mass spectrometer. For streamlined use of the LC- MS platform we used a single SEC column and alternately selected specific mobile phases to perform separations in either denaturing or native-like conditions: buffer A (20 % ACN, 0.1 % FA) with Buffer B (100 mM ammonium acetate). For peptide analysis mAbs were proteolytically digested with and without prior reduction and alkylation. The mass spectrometer used for all experiments was a commercially available Thermo Scientific™ hybrid Quadrupole-Orbitrap™ mass spectrometer, equipped with the new BioPharma option which includes a new High Mass Range (HMR) mode that allows for improved high mass transmission and mass detection up to 8000 m/z. Results: We have analyzed the profiles of three mAbs under reducing and native conditions by direct infusion with offline desalting and with on-line desalting via size exclusion and reversed phase type columns. The presence of high salt under denaturing conditions was found to influence the observed charge state envelope and impact mass accuracy after spectral deconvolution. The significantly lower charge states observed under native conditions improves the spatial resolution of protein signals and has significant benefits for the analysis of antibody mixtures, e.g. lysine variants, degradants or sequence variants. This type of analysis requires the detection of masses beyond the standard mass range ranging up to 6000 m/z requiring the extended capabilities available in the new HMR mode. We have compared each antibody sample that was analyzed individually with mixtures in various relative concentrations. For this type of analysis, we observed that apparent native structures persist and ESI is benefited by the addition of low amounts of acetonitrile and formic acid in combination with the ammonium acetate-buffered mobile phase. For analyses on the peptide level we analyzed reduced/alkylated, and non-reduced proteolytic digests of the individual antibodies separated via reversed phase chromatography aiming to retrieve as much information as possible regarding sequence coverage, disulfide bridges, post-translational modifications such as various glycans, sequence variants, and their relative quantification. All data acquired were submitted to a single software package for analysis aiming to obtain a complete picture of the molecules analyzed. Here we demonstrate the capabilities of the mass spectrometer to fully characterize homogeneous and heterogeneous therapeutic proteins on one single platform. Conclusion: Full characterization of heterogeneous intact protein mixtures by improved mass separation on a quadrupole-Orbitrap™ mass spectrometer with extended capabilities has been demonstrated.

Keywords: disulfide bond analysis, intact analysis, native analysis, mass spectrometry, monoclonal antibodies, peptide mapping, post-translational modifications, sequence variants, size exclusion chromatography, therapeutic protein analysis, UHPLC

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6 A Spatial Repetitive Controller Applied to an Aeroelastic Model for Wind Turbines

Authors: Riccardo Fratini, Riccardo Santini, Jacopo Serafini, Massimo Gennaretti, Stefano Panzieri

Abstract:

This paper presents a nonlinear differential model, for a three-bladed horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) suited for control applications. It is based on a 8-dofs, lumped parameters structural dynamics coupled with a quasi-steady sectional aerodynamics. In particular, using the Euler-Lagrange Equation (Energetic Variation approach), the authors derive, and successively validate, such model. For the derivation of the aerodynamic model, the Greenbergs theory, an extension of the theory proposed by Theodorsen to the case of thin airfoils undergoing pulsating flows, is used. Specifically, in this work, the authors restricted that theory under the hypothesis of low perturbation reduced frequency k, which causes the lift deficiency function C(k) to be real and equal to 1. Furthermore, the expressions of the aerodynamic loads are obtained using the quasi-steady strip theory (Hodges and Ormiston), as a function of the chordwise and normal components of relative velocity between flow and airfoil Ut, Up, their derivatives, and section angular velocity ε˙. For the validation of the proposed model, the authors carried out open and closed-loop simulations of a 5 MW HAWT, characterized by radius R =61.5 m and by mean chord c = 3 m, with a nominal angular velocity Ωn = 1.266rad/sec. The first analysis performed is the steady state solution, where a uniform wind Vw = 11.4 m/s is considered and a collective pitch angle θ = 0.88◦ is imposed. During this step, the authors noticed that the proposed model is intrinsically periodic due to the effect of the wind and of the gravitational force. In order to reject this periodic trend in the model dynamics, the authors propose a collective repetitive control algorithm coupled with a PD controller. In particular, when the reference command to be tracked and/or the disturbance to be rejected are periodic signals with a fixed period, the repetitive control strategies can be applied due to their high precision, simple implementation and little performance dependency on system parameters. The functional scheme of a repetitive controller is quite simple and, given a periodic reference command, is composed of a control block Crc(s) usually added to an existing feedback control system. The control block contains and a free time-delay system eτs in a positive feedback loop, and a low-pass filter q(s). It should be noticed that, while the time delay term reduces the stability margin, on the other hand the low pass filter is added to ensure stability. It is worth noting that, in this work, the authors propose a phase shifting for the controller and the delay system has been modified as e^(−(T−γk)), where T is the period of the signal and γk is a phase shifting of k samples of the same periodic signal. It should be noticed that, the phase shifting technique is particularly useful in non-minimum phase systems, such as flexible structures. In fact, using the phase shifting, the iterative algorithm could reach the convergence also at high frequencies. Notice that, in our case study, the shifting of k samples depends both on the rotor angular velocity Ω and on the rotor azimuth angle Ψ: we refer to this controller as a spatial repetitive controller. The collective repetitive controller has also been coupled with a C(s) = PD(s), in order to dampen oscillations of the blades. The performance of the spatial repetitive controller is compared with an industrial PI controller. In particular, starting from wind speed velocity Vw = 11.4 m/s the controller is asked to maintain the nominal angular velocity Ωn = 1.266rad/s after an instantaneous increase of wind speed (Vw = 15 m/s). Then, a purely periodic external disturbance is introduced in order to stress the capabilities of the repetitive controller. The results of the simulations show that, contrary to a simple PI controller, the spatial repetitive-PD controller has the capability to reject both external disturbances and periodic trend in the model dynamics. Finally, the nominal value of the angular velocity is reached, in accordance with results obtained with commercial software for a turbine of the same type.

Keywords: wind turbines, aeroelasticity, repetitive control, periodic systems

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5 Ensemble Sampler For Infinite-Dimensional Inverse Problems

Authors: Jeremie Coullon, Robert J. Webber

Abstract:

We introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sam-pler for infinite-dimensional inverse problems. Our sam-pler is based on the affine invariant ensemble sampler, which uses interacting walkers to adapt to the covariance structure of the target distribution. We extend this ensem-ble sampler for the first time to infinite-dimensional func-tion spaces, yielding a highly efficient gradient-free MCMC algorithm. Because our ensemble sampler does not require gradients or posterior covariance estimates, it is simple to implement and broadly applicable. In many Bayes-ian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) meth-ods are needed to approximate distributions on infinite-dimensional function spaces, for example, in groundwater flow, medical imaging, and traffic flow. Yet designing efficient MCMC methods for function spaces has proved challenging. Recent gradi-ent-based MCMC methods preconditioned MCMC methods, and SMC methods have improved the computational efficiency of functional random walk. However, these samplers require gradi-ents or posterior covariance estimates that may be challenging to obtain. Calculating gradients is difficult or impossible in many high-dimensional inverse problems involving a numerical integra-tor with a black-box code base. Additionally, accurately estimating posterior covariances can require a lengthy pilot run or adaptation period. These concerns raise the question: is there a functional sampler that outperforms functional random walk without requir-ing gradients or posterior covariance estimates? To address this question, we consider a gradient-free sampler that avoids explicit covariance estimation yet adapts naturally to the covariance struc-ture of the sampled distribution. This sampler works by consider-ing an ensemble of walkers and interpolating and extrapolating between walkers to make a proposal. This is called the affine in-variant ensemble sampler (AIES), which is easy to tune, easy to parallelize, and efficient at sampling spaces of moderate dimen-sionality (less than 20). The main contribution of this work is to propose a functional ensemble sampler (FES) that combines func-tional random walk and AIES. To apply this sampler, we first cal-culate the Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion for the Bayesian prior distribution, assumed to be Gaussian and trace-class. Then, we use AIES to sample the posterior distribution on the low-wavenumber KL components and use the functional random walk to sample the posterior distribution on the high-wavenumber KL components. Alternating between AIES and functional random walk updates, we obtain our functional ensemble sampler that is efficient and easy to use without requiring detailed knowledge of the target dis-tribution. In past work, several authors have proposed splitting the Bayesian posterior into low-wavenumber and high-wavenumber components and then applying enhanced sampling to the low-wavenumber components. Yet compared to these other samplers, FES is unique in its simplicity and broad applicability. FES does not require any derivatives, and the need for derivative-free sam-plers has previously been emphasized. FES also eliminates the requirement for posterior covariance estimates. Lastly, FES is more efficient than other gradient-free samplers in our tests. In two nu-merical examples, we apply FES to challenging inverse problems that involve estimating a functional parameter and one or more scalar parameters. We compare the performance of functional random walk, FES, and an alternative derivative-free sampler that explicitly estimates the posterior covariance matrix. We conclude that FES is the fastest available gradient-free sampler for these challenging and multimodal test problems.

Keywords: Bayesian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo, infinite-dimensional inverse problems, dimensionality reduction

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4 Design and 3D-Printout of The Stack-Corrugate-Sheel Core Sandwiched Decks for The Bridging System

Authors: K. Kamal

Abstract:

Structural sandwich panels with core of Advanced Composites Laminates l Honeycombs / PU-foams are used in aerospace applications and are also fabricated for use now in some civil engineering applications. An all Advanced Composites Foot Over Bridge (FOB) system, designed and developed for pedestrian traffic is one such application earlier, may be cited as an example here. During development stage of this FoB, a profile of its decks was then spurred as a single corrugate sheet core sandwiched between two Glass Fibre Reinforced Plastics(GFRP) flat laminates. Once successfully fabricated and used, these decks did prove suitable also to form other structure on assembly, such as, erecting temporary shelters. Such corrugated sheet core profile sandwiched panels were then also tried using the construction materials but any conventional method of construction only posed certain difficulties in achieving the required core profile monolithically within the sandwiched slabs and hence it was then abended. Such monolithic construction was, however, subsequently eased out on demonstration by dispensing building materials mix through a suitably designed multi-dispenser system attached to a 3D Printer. This study conducted at lab level was thus reported earlier and it did include the fabrication of a 3D printer in-house first as ‘3DcMP’ as well as on its functional operation, some required sandwich core profiles also been 3D-printed out producing panels hardware. Once a number of these sandwich panels in single corrugated sheet core monolithically printed out, panels were subjected to load test in an experimental set up as also their structural behavior was studied analytically, and subsequently, these results were correlated as reported in the literature. In achieving the required more depths and also to exhibit further the stronger and creating sandwiched decks of better structural and mechanical behavior, further more complex core configuration such as stack corrugate sheets core with a flat mid plane was felt to be the better sandwiched core. Such profile remained as an outcome that turns out merely on stacking of two separately printed out monolithic units of single corrugated sheet core developed earlier as above and bonded them together initially, maintaining a different orientation. For any required sequential understanding of the structural behavior of any such complex profile core sandwiched decks with special emphasis to study of the effect in the variation of corrugation orientation in each distinct tire in this core, it obviously calls for an analytical study first. The rectangular,simply supported decks have therefore been considered for analysis adopting the ‘Advanced Composite Technology(ACT), some numerical results along with some fruitful findings were obtained and these are all presented here in this paper. From this numerical result, it has been observed that a mid flat layer which eventually get created monolethically itself, in addition to eliminating the bonding process in development, has been found to offer more effective bending resistance by such decks subjected to UDL over them. This is understood to have resulted here since the existence of a required shear resistance layer at the mid of the core in this profile, unlike other bending elements. As an addendum to all such efforts made as covered above and was published earlier, this unique stack corrugate sheet core profile sandwiched structural decks, monolithically construction with ease at the site itself, has been printed out from a 3D Printer. On employing 3DcMP and using some innovative building construction materials, holds the future promises of such research & development works since all those several aspects of a 3D printing in construction are now included such as reduction in the required construction time, offering cost effective solutions with freedom in design of any such complex shapes thus can widely now be realized by the modern construction industry.

Keywords: advance composite technology(ACT), corrugated laminates, 3DcMP, foot over bridge (FOB), sandwiched deck units

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3 A Risk-Based Comprehensive Framework for the Assessment of the Security of Multi-Modal Transport Systems

Authors: Mireille Elhajj, Washington Ochieng, Deeph Chana

Abstract:

The challenges of the rapid growth in the demand for transport has traditionally been seen within the context of the problems of congestion, air quality, climate change, safety, and affordability. However, there are increasing threats including those related to crime such as cyber-attacks that threaten the security of the transport of people and goods. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents for the first time, a comprehensive framework for the assessment of the current and future security issues of multi-modal transport systems. The approach or method proposed is based on a structured framework starting with a detailed specification of the transport asset map (transport system architecture), followed by the identification of vulnerabilities. The asset map and vulnerabilities are used to identify the various approaches for exploitation of the vulnerabilities, leading to the creation of a set of threat scenarios. The threat scenarios are then transformed into risks and their categories, and include insights for their mitigation. The consideration of the mitigation space is holistic and includes the formulation of appropriate policies and tactics and/or technical interventions. The quality of the framework is ensured through a structured and logical process that identifies the stakeholders, reviews the relevant documents including policies and identifies gaps, incorporates targeted surveys to augment the reviews, and uses subject matter experts for validation. The approach to categorising security risks is an extension of the current methods that are typically employed. Specifically, the partitioning of risks into either physical or cyber categories is too limited for developing mitigation policies and tactics/interventions for transport systems where an interplay between physical and cyber processes is very often the norm. This interplay is rapidly taking on increasing significance for security as the emergence of cyber-physical technologies, are shaping the future of all transport modes. Examples include: Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) in road transport; the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) in rail transport; Automatic Identification System (AIS) in maritime transport; advanced Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) technologies in air transport; and the Internet of Things (IoT). The framework adopts a risk categorisation scheme that considers risks as falling within the following threat→impact relationships: Physical→Physical, Cyber→Cyber, Cyber→Physical, and Physical→Cyber). Thus the framework enables a more complete risk picture to be developed for today’s transport systems and, more importantly, is readily extendable to account for emerging trends in the sector that will define future transport systems. The framework facilitates the audit and retro-fitting of mitigations in current transport operations and the analysis of security management options for the next generation of Transport enabling strategic aspirations such as systems with security-by-design and co-design of safety and security to be achieved. An initial application of the framework to transport systems has shown that intra-modal consideration of security measures is sub-optimal and that a holistic and multi-modal approach that also addresses the intersections/transition points of such networks is required as their vulnerability is high. This is in-line with traveler-centric transport service provision, widely accepted as the future of mobility services. In summary, a risk-based framework is proposed for use by the stakeholders to comprehensively and holistically assess the security of transport systems. It requires a detailed understanding of the transport architecture to enable a detailed vulnerabilities analysis to be undertaken, creates threat scenarios and transforms them into risks which form the basis for the formulation of interventions.

Keywords: mitigations, risk, transport, security, vulnerabilities

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2 Identification of the Antimicrobial Property of Double Metal Oxide/Bioactive Glass Nanocomposite Against Multi Drug Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Causing Implant Infections

Authors: M. H. Pazandeh, M. Doudi, S. Barahimi, L. Rahimzadeh Torabi

Abstract:

The use of antibiotics is essential in reducing the occurrence of adverse effects and inhibiting the emergence of antibiotic resistance in microbial populations. The necessity for a novel methodology concerning local administration of antibiotics has arisen, with particular focus on dealing with localized infections prompted by bacterial colonization of medical devices or implant materials. Bioactive glasses (BG) are extensively employed in the field of regenerative medicine, encompassing a diverse range of materials utilized for drug delivery systems. In the present investigation, various drug carriers for imipenem and tetracycline, namely single systems BG/SnO2, BG/NiO with varying proportions of metal oxide, and nanocomposite BG/SnO2/NiO, were synthesized through the sol-gel technique. The antibacterial efficacy of the synthesized samples was assessed through the utilization of the disk diffusion method with the aim of neutralizing Staphylococcus aureus as the bacterial model. The current study involved the examination of the bioactivity of two samples, namely BG10SnO2/10NiO and BG20SnO2, which were chosen based on their heightened bacterial inactivation properties. This evaluation entailed the employment of two techniques: the measurement of the pH of simulated body fluid (SBF) solution and the analysis of the sample tablets through X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The sample tablets were submerged in SBF for varying durations of 7, 14, and 28 days. The bioactivity of the composite bioactive glass sample was assessed through characterization of alterations in its surface morphology, structure, and chemical composition. This evaluation was performed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction spectroscopy. Subsequently, the sample was immersed in simulated liquids to simulate its behavior in biological environments. The specific body fat percentage (SBF) was assessed over a 28-day period. The confirmation of the formation of a hydroxyapatite surface layer serves as a distinct indicator of bioactivity. The infusion of antibiotics into the composite bioactive glass specimen was done separately, and then the release kinetics of tetracycline and imipenem were tested in simulated body fluid (SBF). Antimicrobial effectiveness against various bacterial strains have been proven in numerous instances using both melt and sol-gel techniques to create multiple bioactive glass compositions. An elevated concentration of calcium ions within a solution has been observed to cause an increase in the pH level. In aqueous suspensions, bioactive glass particles manifest a significant antimicrobial impact. The composite bioactive glass specimen exhibits a gradual and uninterrupted release, which is highly desirable for a drug delivery system over a span of 72 hours. The reduction in absorption, which signals the loss of a portion of the antibiotic during the loading process from the initial phosphate-buffered saline solution, indicates the successful bonding of the two antibiotics to the surfaces of the bioactive glass samples. The sample denoted as BG/10SnO2/10NiO exhibits a higher loading of particles compared to the sample designated as BG/20SnO2 in the context of bioactive glass. The enriched sample demonstrates a heightened bactericidal impact on the bacteria under investigation while concurrently preserving its antibacterial characteristics. Tailored bioactive glass that incorporates hydroxyapatite, with a regulated and efficient release of drugs targeting bacterial infections, holds promise as a potential framework for bone implant scaffolds following rigorous clinical evaluation, thereby establishing potential future biomedical uses. During the modification process, the introduction of metal oxides into bioactive glass resulted in improved antibacterial characteristics, particularly in the composite bioactive glass sample that displayed the highest level of efficiency.

Keywords: antibacterial, bioactive glasses, implant infections, multi drug resistant

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1 Times2D: A Time-Frequency Method for Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Reza Nematirad, Anil Pahwa, Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Abstract:

Time series data consist of successive data points collected over a period of time. Accurate prediction of future values is essential for informed decision-making in several real-world applications, including electricity load demand forecasting, lifetime estimation of industrial machinery, traffic planning, weather prediction, and the stock market. Due to their critical relevance and wide application, there has been considerable interest in time series forecasting in recent years. However, the proliferation of sensors and IoT devices, real-time monitoring systems, and high-frequency trading data introduce significant intricate temporal variations, rapid changes, noise, and non-linearities, making time series forecasting more challenging. Classical methods such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing aim to extract pre-defined temporal variations, such as trends and seasonality. While these methods are effective for capturing well-defined seasonal patterns and trends, they often struggle with more complex, non-linear patterns present in real-world time series data. In recent years, deep learning has made significant contributions to time series forecasting. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and their variants, such as Long short-term memory (LSTMs) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), have been widely adopted for modeling sequential data. However, they often suffer from the locality, making it difficult to capture local trends and rapid fluctuations. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), particularly Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), leverage convolutional layers to capture temporal dependencies by applying convolutional filters along the temporal dimension. Despite their advantages, TCNs struggle with capturing relationships between distant time points due to the locality of one-dimensional convolution kernels. Transformers have revolutionized time series forecasting with their powerful attention mechanisms, effectively capturing long-term dependencies and relationships between distant time points. However, the attention mechanism may struggle to discern dependencies directly from scattered time points due to intricate temporal patterns. Lastly, Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) have also been employed, with models like N-BEATS and LightTS demonstrating success. Despite this, MLPs often face high volatility and computational complexity challenges in long-horizon forecasting. To address intricate temporal variations in time series data, this study introduces Times2D, a novel framework that parallelly integrates 2D spectrogram and derivative heatmap techniques. The spectrogram focuses on the frequency domain, capturing periodicity, while the derivative patterns emphasize the time domain, highlighting sharp fluctuations and turning points. This 2D transformation enables the utilization of powerful computer vision techniques to capture various intricate temporal variations. To evaluate the performance of Times2D, extensive experiments were conducted on standard time series datasets and compared with various state-of-the-art algorithms, including DLinear (2023), TimesNet (2023), Non-stationary Transformer (2022), PatchTST (2023), N-HiTS (2023), Crossformer (2023), MICN (2023), LightTS (2022), FEDformer (2022), FiLM (2022), SCINet (2022a), Autoformer (2021), and Informer (2021) under the same modeling conditions. The initial results demonstrated that Times2D achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks. Furthermore, the generality of the Times2D framework allows it to be applied to various tasks such as time series imputation, clustering, classification, and anomaly detection, offering potential benefits in any domain that involves sequential data analysis.

Keywords: derivative patterns, spectrogram, time series forecasting, times2D, 2D representation

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