Search results for: generational models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6602

Search results for: generational models

5072 Disaggregation the Daily Rainfall Dataset into Sub-Daily Resolution in the Temperate Oceanic Climate Region

Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

Abstract:

High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 189
5071 Listening to the Voices of Syrian Refugee Women in Canada: An Ethnographic Insight into the Journey from Trauma to Adaptation

Authors: Areej Al-Hamad, Cheryl Forchuk, Abe Oudshoorn, Gerald Patrick Mckinley

Abstract:

Syrian refugee women face many obstacles when accessing health services in host countries that are influenced by various cultural, structural, and practical factors. This paper is based on critical ethnographic research undertaken in Canada to explore Syrian refugee women's migration experiences. Also, we aim to critically examine how the intersection of gender, trauma, violence and the political and economic conditions of Syrian refugee women shapes their everyday lives and health. The study also investigates the strategies and practices by which Syrian refugee women are currently addressing their healthcare needs and the models of care that are suggested for meeting their physical and mental health needs. Findings show that these women experienced constant worries, hardship, vulnerability, and intrusion of dignity. These experiences and challenges were aggravated by the structure of the Canadian social and health care system. This study offers a better understanding of the impact of migration and trauma on Syrian refugee women's roles, responsibilities, gender dynamics, and interaction with Ontario's healthcare system to improve interaction and outcomes. Health care models should address these challenges among Syrian refugee families in Canada.

Keywords: Syrian refugee women, intersectionality, critical ethnography, migration

Procedia PDF Downloads 73
5070 Predisposition of Small Scale Businesses in Fagge, Kano State, Nigeria, Towards Profit and Loss Sharing Mode of Finance

Authors: Farida, M. Shehu, Shehu U. R. Aliyu

Abstract:

Access to finance has been recognized in the literature as one of the major impediments confronting small scale businesses (SSBs). This largely arises due to high lending rate, religious inclinations, collateral, etc. Islamic mode finance operates under Profit and Loss Sharing (PLS) arrangement between a borrower (business owner) and a lender (Islamic bank). This paper empirically assesses the determinants of predisposition of small scale business operators in Fagge local government area, Kano State, Nigeria, towards the PLS. Cross-sectional data from a sample of 291 small scale business operators was analyzed using logit and probit regression models. Empirical results reveal that while awareness and religion inclination positively drive interest towards the PLS, lending rate and collateral work against it. The paper, therefore, strongly recommends more advocacy campaigns and setting up of more Islamic banks in the country to cater for the financing and religious needs of SSBs in the study area.

Keywords: Islamic finance, logit and probit models, profit and loss sharing small scale businesses, finance, commerce

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
5069 Identification of Switched Reluctance Motor Parameters Using Exponential Swept-Sine Signal

Authors: Abdelmalek Ouannou, Adil Brouri, Laila Kadi, Tarik

Abstract:

Switched reluctance motor (SRM) has a major interest in a large domain as in electric vehicle driving because of its wide range of speed operation, high performances, low cost, and robustness to run under degraded conditions. The purpose of the paper is to develop a new analytical approach for modeling SRM parameters. Then, an identification scheme is proposed to obtain the SRM parameters. Since the SRM is featured by a highly nonlinear behavior, modeling these devices is difficult. Then, it is convenient to develop an accurate model describing the SRM. Furthermore, it is always operated in the magnetically saturated mode to maximize the energy transfer. Accordingly, it is shown that the SRM can be accurately described by a generalized polynomial Hammerstein model, i.e., the parallel connection of several Hammerstein models having polynomial nonlinearity. Presently an analytical identification method is developed using a chirp excitation signal. Afterward, the parameters of the obtained model have been determined using Finite Element Method analysis. Finally, in order to show the effectiveness of the proposed method, a comparison between the true and estimate models has been performed. The obtained results show that the output responses are very close.

Keywords: switched reluctance motor, swept-sine signal, generalized Hammerstein model, nonlinear system

Procedia PDF Downloads 221
5068 Convergence and Stability in Federated Learning with Adaptive Differential Privacy Preservation

Authors: Rizwan Rizwan

Abstract:

This paper provides an overview of Federated Learning (FL) and its application in enhancing data security, privacy, and efficiency. FL utilizes three distinct architectures to ensure privacy is never compromised. It involves training individual edge devices and aggregating their models on a server without sharing raw data. This approach not only provides secure models without data sharing but also offers a highly efficient privacy--preserving solution with improved security and data access. Also we discusses various frameworks used in FL and its integration with machine learning, deep learning, and data mining. In order to address the challenges of multi--party collaborative modeling scenarios, a brief review FL scheme combined with an adaptive gradient descent strategy and differential privacy mechanism. The adaptive learning rate algorithm adjusts the gradient descent process to avoid issues such as model overfitting and fluctuations, thereby enhancing modeling efficiency and performance in multi-party computation scenarios. Additionally, to cater to ultra-large-scale distributed secure computing, the research introduces a differential privacy mechanism that defends against various background knowledge attacks.

Keywords: federated learning, differential privacy, gradient descent strategy, convergence, stability, threats

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5067 Determinants of International Volatility Passthroughs of Agricultural Commodities: A Panel Analysis of Developing Countries

Authors: Tetsuji Tanaka, Jin Guo

Abstract:

The extant literature has not succeeded in uncovering the common determinants of price volatility transmissions of agricultural commodities from international to local markets, and further, has rarely investigated the role of self-sufficiency measures in the context of national food security. We analyzed various factors to determine the degree of price volatility transmissions of wheat, rice, and maize between world and domestic markets using GARCH models with dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) specifications and panel-feasible generalized least square models. We found that the grain autarky system has the potential to diminish volatility pass-throughs for three grain commodities. Furthermore, it was discovered that the substitutive commodity consumption behavior between maize and wheat buffers the volatility transmissions of both, but rice does not function as a transmission-relieving element, either for the volatilities of wheat or maize. The effectiveness of grain consumption substitution to insulate the pass-throughs from global markets is greater than that of cereal self-sufficiency. These implications are extremely beneficial for developing governments to protect their domestic food markets from uncertainty in foreign countries and as such, improves food security.

Keywords: food security, GARCH, grain self-sufficiency, volatility transmission

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
5066 Evaluation of UI for 3D Visualization-Based Building Information Applications

Authors: Monisha Pattanaik

Abstract:

In scenarios where users have to work with large amounts of hierarchical data structures combined with visualizations (For example, Construction 3d Models, Manufacturing equipment's models, Gantt charts, Building Plans), the data structures have a high density in terms of consisting multiple parent nodes up to 50 levels and their siblings to descendants, therefore convey an immediate feeling of complexity. With customers moving to consumer-grade enterprise software, it is crucial to make sophisticated features made available to touch devices or smaller screen sizes. This paper evaluates the UI component that allows users to scroll through all deep density levels using a slider overlay on top of the hierarchy table, performing several actions to focus on one set of objects at any point in time. This overlay component also solves the problem of excessive horizontal scrolling of the entire table on a fixed pane for a hierarchical table. This component can be customized to navigate through parents, only siblings, or a specific component of the hierarchy only. The evaluation of the UI component was done by End Users of application and Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) experts to test the UI component's usability with statistical results and recommendations to handle complex hierarchical data visualizations.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital twin, navigation, UI component, user interface, usability, visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
5065 Study of the Influence of Eccentricity Due to Configuration and Materials on Seismic Response of a Typical Building

Authors: A. Latif Karimi, M. K. Shrimali

Abstract:

Seismic design is a critical stage in the process of design and construction of a building. It includes strategies for designing earthquake-resistant buildings to ensure health, safety, and security of the building occupants and assets. Hence, it becomes very important to understand the behavior of structural members precisely, for construction of buildings that can yield a better response to seismic forces. This paper investigates the behavior of a typical structure when subjected to ground motion. The corresponding mode shapes and modal frequencies are studied to interpret the response of an actual structure using different fabricated models and 3D visual models. In this study, three different structural configurations are subjected to horizontal ground motion, and the effect of “stiffness eccentricity” and placement of infill walls are checked to determine how each parameter contributes in a building’s response to dynamic forces. The deformation data from lab experiments and the analysis on SAP2000 software are reviewed to obtain the results. This study revealed that seismic response in a building can be improved by introducing higher deformation capacity in the building. Also, proper design of infill walls and maintaining a symmetrical configuration in a building are the key factors in building stability during the earthquake.

Keywords: eccentricity, seismic response, mode shape, building configuration, building dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
5064 Loan Repayment Prediction Using Machine Learning: Model Development, Django Web Integration and Cloud Deployment

Authors: Seun Mayowa Sunday

Abstract:

Loan prediction is one of the most significant and recognised fields of research in the banking, insurance, and the financial security industries. Some prediction systems on the market include the construction of static software. However, due to the fact that static software only operates with strictly regulated rules, they cannot aid customers beyond these limitations. Application of many machine learning (ML) techniques are required for loan prediction. Four separate machine learning models, random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), and logistic regression, are used to create the loan prediction model. Using the anaconda navigator and the required machine learning (ML) libraries, models are created and evaluated using the appropriate measuring metrics. From the finding, the random forest performs with the highest accuracy of 80.17% which was later implemented into the Django framework. For real-time testing, the web application is deployed on the Alibabacloud which is among the top 4 biggest cloud computing provider. Hence, to the best of our knowledge, this research will serve as the first academic paper which combines the model development and the Django framework, with the deployment into the Alibaba cloud computing application.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbor, random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, django, cloud computing, alibaba cloud

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
5063 Price Prediction Line, Investment Signals and Limit Conditions Applied for the German Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, high-frequency trading, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
5062 Large Scale Method to Assess the Seismic Vulnerability of Heritage Buidings: Modal Updating of Numerical Models and Vulnerability Curves

Authors: Claire Limoge Schraen, Philippe Gueguen, Cedric Giry, Cedric Desprez, Frédéric Ragueneau

Abstract:

Mediterranean area is characterized by numerous monumental or vernacular masonry structures illustrating old ways of build and live. Those precious buildings are often poorly documented, present complex shapes and loadings, and are protected by the States, leading to legal constraints. This area also presents a moderate to high seismic activity. Even moderate earthquakes can be magnified by local site effects and cause collapse or significant damage. Moreover the structural resistance of masonry buildings, especially when less famous or located in rural zones has been generally lowered by many factors: poor maintenance, unsuitable restoration, ambient pollution, previous earthquakes. Recent earthquakes prove that any damage to these architectural witnesses to our past is irreversible, leading to the necessity of acting preventively. This means providing preventive assessments for hundreds of structures with no or few documents. In this context we want to propose a general method, based on hierarchized numerical models, to provide preliminary structural diagnoses at a regional scale, indicating whether more precise investigations and models are necessary for each building. To this aim, we adapt different tools, being developed such as photogrammetry or to be created such as a preprocessor starting from pictures to build meshes for a FEM software, in order to allow dynamic studies of the buildings of the panel. We made an inventory of 198 baroque chapels and churches situated in the French Alps. Then their structural characteristics have been determined thanks field surveys and the MicMac photogrammetric software. Using structural criteria, we determined eight types of churches and seven types for chapels. We studied their dynamical behavior thanks to CAST3M, using EC8 spectrum and accelerogramms of the studied zone. This allowed us quantifying the effect of the needed simplifications in the most sensitive zones and choosing the most effective ones. We also proposed threshold criteria based on the observed damages visible in the in situ surveys, old pictures and Italian code. They are relevant in linear models. To validate the structural types, we made a vibratory measures campaign using vibratory ambient noise and velocimeters. It also allowed us validating this method on old masonry and identifying the modal characteristics of 20 churches. Then we proceeded to a dynamic identification between numerical and experimental modes. So we updated the linear models thanks to material and geometrical parameters, often unknown because of the complexity of the structures and materials. The numerically optimized values have been verified thanks to the measures we made on the masonry components in situ and in laboratory. We are now working on non-linear models redistributing the strains. So we validate the damage threshold criteria which we use to compute the vulnerability curves of each defined structural type. Our actual results show a good correlation between experimental and numerical data, validating the final modeling simplifications and the global method. We now plan to use non-linear analysis in the critical zones in order to test reinforcement solutions.

Keywords: heritage structures, masonry numerical modeling, seismic vulnerability assessment, vibratory measure

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5061 Solid Particles Transport and Deposition Prediction in a Turbulent Impinging Jet Using the Lattice Boltzmann Method and a Probabilistic Model on GPU

Authors: Ali Abdul Kadhim, Fue Lien

Abstract:

Solid particle distribution on an impingement surface has been simulated utilizing a graphical processing unit (GPU). In-house computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code has been developed to investigate a 3D turbulent impinging jet using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) in conjunction with large eddy simulation (LES) and the multiple relaxation time (MRT) models. This paper proposed an improvement in the LBM-cellular automata (LBM-CA) probabilistic method. In the current model, the fluid flow utilizes the D3Q19 lattice, while the particle model employs the D3Q27 lattice. The particle numbers are defined at the same regular LBM nodes, and transport of particles from one node to its neighboring nodes are determined in accordance with the particle bulk density and velocity by considering all the external forces. The previous models distribute particles at each time step without considering the local velocity and the number of particles at each node. The present model overcomes the deficiencies of the previous LBM-CA models and, therefore, can better capture the dynamic interaction between particles and the surrounding turbulent flow field. Despite the increasing popularity of LBM-MRT-CA model in simulating complex multiphase fluid flows, this approach is still expensive in term of memory size and computational time required to perform 3D simulations. To improve the throughput of each simulation, a single GeForce GTX TITAN X GPU is used in the present work. The CUDA parallel programming platform and the CuRAND library are utilized to form an efficient LBM-CA algorithm. The methodology was first validated against a benchmark test case involving particle deposition on a square cylinder confined in a duct. The flow was unsteady and laminar at Re=200 (Re is the Reynolds number), and simulations were conducted for different Stokes numbers. The present LBM solutions agree well with other results available in the open literature. The GPU code was then used to simulate the particle transport and deposition in a turbulent impinging jet at Re=10,000. The simulations were conducted for L/D=2,4 and 6, where L is the nozzle-to-surface distance and D is the jet diameter. The effect of changing the Stokes number on the particle deposition profile was studied at different L/D ratios. For comparative studies, another in-house serial CPU code was also developed, coupling LBM with the classical Lagrangian particle dispersion model. Agreement between results obtained with LBM-CA and LBM-Lagrangian models and the experimental data is generally good. The present GPU approach achieves a speedup ratio of about 350 against the serial code running on a single CPU.

Keywords: CUDA, GPU parallel programming, LES, lattice Boltzmann method, MRT, multi-phase flow, probabilistic model

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5060 Improved Elastoplastic Bounding Surface Model for the Mathematical Modeling of Geomaterials

Authors: Andres Nieto-Leal, Victor N. Kaliakin, Tania P. Molina

Abstract:

The nature of most engineering materials is quite complex. It is, therefore, difficult to devise a general mathematical model that will cover all possible ranges and types of excitation and behavior of a given material. As a result, the development of mathematical models is based upon simplifying assumptions regarding material behavior. Such simplifications result in some material idealization; for example, one of the simplest material idealization is to assume that the material behavior obeys the elasticity. However, soils are nonhomogeneous, anisotropic, path-dependent materials that exhibit nonlinear stress-strain relationships, changes in volume under shear, dilatancy, as well as time-, rate- and temperature-dependent behavior. Over the years, many constitutive models, possessing different levels of sophistication, have been developed to simulate the behavior geomaterials, particularly cohesive soils. Early in the development of constitutive models, it became evident that elastic or standard elastoplastic formulations, employing purely isotropic hardening and predicated in the existence of a yield surface surrounding a purely elastic domain, were incapable of realistically simulating the behavior of geomaterials. Accordingly, more sophisticated constitutive models have been developed; for example, the bounding surface elastoplasticity. The essence of the bounding surface concept is the hypothesis that plastic deformations can occur for stress states either within or on the bounding surface. Thus, unlike classical yield surface elastoplasticity, the plastic states are not restricted only to those lying on a surface. Elastoplastic bounding surface models have been improved; however, there is still need to improve their capabilities in simulating the response of anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils, especially the response in extension tests. Thus, in this work an improved constitutive model that can more accurately predict diverse stress-strain phenomena exhibited by cohesive soils was developed. Particularly, an improved rotational hardening rule that better simulate the response of cohesive soils in extension. The generalized definition of the bounding surface model provides a convenient and elegant framework for unifying various previous versions of the model for anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils. The Generalized Bounding Surface Model for cohesive soils is a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent model that accounts for both inherent and stress induced anisotropy employing a non-associative flow rule. The model numerical implementation in a computer code followed an adaptive multistep integration scheme in conjunction with local iteration and radial return. The one-step trapezoidal rule was used to get the stiffness matrix that defines the relationship between the stress increment and the strain increment. After testing the model in simulating the response of cohesive soils through extensive comparisons of model simulations to experimental data, it has been shown to give quite good simulations. The new model successfully simulates the response of different cohesive soils; for example, Cardiff Kaolin, Spestone Kaolin, and Lower Cromer Till. The simulated undrained stress paths, stress-strain response, and excess pore pressures are in very good agreement with the experimental values, especially in extension.

Keywords: bounding surface elastoplasticity, cohesive soils, constitutive model, modeling of geomaterials

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
5059 Environmental Effects on Energy Consumption of Smart Grid Consumers

Authors: S. M. Ali, A. Salam Khan, A. U. Khan, M. Tariq, M. S. Hussain, B. A. Abbasi, I. Hussain, U. Farid

Abstract:

Environment and surrounding plays a pivotal rule in structuring life-style of the consumers. Living standards intern effect the energy consumption of the consumers. In smart grid paradigm, climate drifts, weather parameter and green environmental directly relates to the energy profiles of the various consumers, such as residential, commercial and industrial. Considering above factors helps policy in shaping utility load curves and optimal management of demand and supply. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop correlation models of load and weather parameters and critical analysis of the factors effecting energy profiles of smart grid consumers. In this paper, we elaborated various environment and weather parameter factors effecting demand of consumers. Moreover, we developed correlation models, such as Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, an inter-relation between dependent (load) parameter and independent (weather) parameters. Furthermore, we validated our discussion with real-time data of Texas State. The numerical simulations proved the effective relation of climatic drifts with energy consumption of smart grid consumers.

Keywords: climatic drifts, correlation analysis, energy consumption, smart grid, weather parameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
5058 Characterising Stable Model by Extended Labelled Dependency Graph

Authors: Asraful Islam

Abstract:

Extended dependency graph (EDG) is a state-of-the-art isomorphic graph to represent normal logic programs (NLPs) that can characterize the consistency of NLPs by graph analysis. To construct the vertices and arcs of an EDG, additional renaming atoms and rules besides those the given program provides are used, resulting in higher space complexity compared to the corresponding traditional dependency graph (TDG). In this article, we propose an extended labeled dependency graph (ELDG) to represent an NLP that shares an equal number of nodes and arcs with TDG and prove that it is isomorphic to the domain program. The number of nodes and arcs used in the underlying dependency graphs are formulated to compare the space complexity. Results show that ELDG uses less memory to store nodes, arcs, and cycles compared to EDG. To exhibit the desirability of ELDG, firstly, the stable models of the kernel form of NLP are characterized by the admissible coloring of ELDG; secondly, a relation of the stable models of a kernel program with the handles of the minimal, odd cycles appearing in the corresponding ELDG has been established; thirdly, to our best knowledge, for the first time an inverse transformation from a dependency graph to the representing NLP w.r.t. ELDG has been defined that enables transferring analytical results from the graph to the program straightforwardly.

Keywords: normal logic program, isomorphism of graph, extended labelled dependency graph, inverse graph transforma-tion, graph colouring

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
5057 Studying the Impact of Soil Characteristics in Displacement of Retaining Walls Using Finite Element

Authors: Mojtaba Ahmadabadi, Akbar Masoudi, Morteza Rezai

Abstract:

In this paper, using the finite element method, the effect of soil and wall characteristics was investigated. Thirty and two different models were studied by different parameters. These studies could calculate displacement at any height of the wall for frictional-cohesive soils. The main purpose of this research is to determine the most effective soil characteristics in reducing the wall displacement. Comparing different models showed that the overall increase in internal friction angle, angle of friction between soil and wall and modulus of elasticity reduce the replacement of the wall. In addition, increase in special weight of soil will increase the wall displacement. Based on results, it can be said that all wall displacements were overturning and in the backfill, soil was bulging. Results show that the highest impact is seen in reducing wall displacement, internal friction angle, and the angle friction between soil and wall. One of the advantages of this study is taking into account all the parameters of the soil and walls replacement distribution in wall and backfill soil. In this paper, using the finite element method and considering all parameters of the soil, we investigated the impact of soil parameter in wall displacement. The aim of this study is to provide the best conditions in reducing the wall displacement and displacement wall and soil distribution.

Keywords: retaining wall, fem, soil and wall interaction, angle of internal friction of the soil, wall displacement

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
5056 Predictive Analysis of the Stock Price Market Trends with Deep Learning

Authors: Suraj Mehrotra

Abstract:

The stock market is a volatile, bustling marketplace that is a cornerstone of economics. It defines whether companies are successful or in spiral. A thorough understanding of it is important - many companies have whole divisions dedicated to analysis of both their stock and of rivaling companies. Linking the world of finance and artificial intelligence (AI), especially the stock market, has been a relatively recent development. Predicting how stocks will do considering all external factors and previous data has always been a human task. With the help of AI, however, machine learning models can help us make more complete predictions in financial trends. Taking a look at the stock market specifically, predicting the open, closing, high, and low prices for the next day is very hard to do. Machine learning makes this task a lot easier. A model that builds upon itself that takes in external factors as weights can predict trends far into the future. When used effectively, new doors can be opened up in the business and finance world, and companies can make better and more complete decisions. This paper explores the various techniques used in the prediction of stock prices, from traditional statistical methods to deep learning and neural networks based approaches, among other methods. It provides a detailed analysis of the techniques and also explores the challenges in predictive analysis. For the accuracy of the testing set, taking a look at four different models - linear regression, neural network, decision tree, and naïve Bayes - on the different stocks, Apple, Google, Tesla, Amazon, United Healthcare, Exxon Mobil, J.P. Morgan & Chase, and Johnson & Johnson, the naïve Bayes model and linear regression models worked best. For the testing set, the naïve Bayes model had the highest accuracy along with the linear regression model, followed by the neural network model and then the decision tree model. The training set had similar results except for the fact that the decision tree model was perfect with complete accuracy in its predictions, which makes sense. This means that the decision tree model likely overfitted the training set when used for the testing set.

Keywords: machine learning, testing set, artificial intelligence, stock analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
5055 Creating Energy Sustainability in an Enterprise

Authors: John Lamb, Robert Epstein, Vasundhara L. Bhupathi, Sanjeev Kumar Marimekala

Abstract:

As we enter the new era of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Cloud Computing, we mostly rely on the Machine and Natural Language Processing capabilities of AI, and Energy Efficient Hardware and Software Devices in almost every industry sector. In these industry sectors, much emphasis is on developing new and innovative methods for producing and conserving energy and sustaining the depletion of natural resources. The core pillars of sustainability are economic, environmental, and social, which is also informally referred to as the 3 P's (People, Planet and Profits). The 3 P's play a vital role in creating a core Sustainability Model in the Enterprise. Natural resources are continually being depleted, so there is more focus and growing demand for renewable energy. With this growing demand, there is also a growing concern in many industries on how to reduce carbon emissions and conserve natural resources while adopting sustainability in corporate business models and policies. In our paper, we would like to discuss the driving forces such as Climate changes, Natural Disasters, Pandemic, Disruptive Technologies, Corporate Policies, Scaled Business Models and Emerging social media and AI platforms that influence the 3 main pillars of Sustainability (3P’s). Through this paper, we would like to bring an overall perspective on enterprise strategies and the primary focus on bringing cultural shifts in adapting energy-efficient operational models. Overall, many industries across the globe are incorporating core sustainability principles such as reducing energy costs, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, reducing waste and increasing recycling, adopting advanced monitoring and metering infrastructure, reducing server footprint and compute resources (Shared IT services, Cloud computing, and Application Modernization) with the vision for a sustainable environment.

Keywords: climate change, pandemic, disruptive technology, government policies, business model, machine learning and natural language processing, AI, social media platform, cloud computing, advanced monitoring, metering infrastructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
5054 End-to-End Spanish-English Sequence Learning Translation Model

Authors: Vidhu Mitha Goutham, Ruma Mukherjee

Abstract:

The low availability of well-trained, unlimited, dynamic-access models for specific languages makes it hard for corporate users to adopt quick translation techniques and incorporate them into product solutions. As translation tasks increasingly require a dynamic sequence learning curve; stable, cost-free opensource models are scarce. We survey and compare current translation techniques and propose a modified sequence to sequence model repurposed with attention techniques. Sequence learning using an encoder-decoder model is now paving the path for higher precision levels in translation. Using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) encoder and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) decoder background, we use Fairseq tools to produce an end-to-end bilingually trained Spanish-English machine translation model including source language detection. We acquire competitive results using a duo-lingo-corpus trained model to provide for prospective, ready-made plug-in use for compound sentences and document translations. Our model serves a decent system for large, organizational data translation needs. While acknowledging its shortcomings and future scope, it also identifies itself as a well-optimized deep neural network model and solution.

Keywords: attention, encoder-decoder, Fairseq, Seq2Seq, Spanish, translation

Procedia PDF Downloads 160
5053 Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises: A Comparative Analysis

Authors: Adeyemi Adebayo, Barry Ackers

Abstract:

This paper comparatively analyses the corporate governance of SOEs in South Africa and Singapore in the context of the World Bank’s framework for corporate governance of SOEs. This framework ensured that the analysis holistically covered key aspects of corporate governance of SOEs in these states. In order to ground our understanding of the paths taken by SOEs in the states, the paper presents the evolution and reforms of SOEs in the states before analyzing key aspects of their corporate governance. The analysis shows that even though SOEs in South Africa and Singapore are comparable in a number of ways, there are notable differences. In this context, this paper finds that the main difference between corporate governance of SOEs in South Africa and Singapore is their organizing model. Further, the analysis, among other findings, shows that SOEs Boards in Singapore are better remunerated. Further finding reveals that, even though some board members are politically connected, Singaporean SOEs boards are better constituted based on skills and experience compared to SOEs boards in South Africa. Overall, the analysis opens up new debates and as such concludes by providing avenues for further research.

Keywords: corporate governance, comparative corporate governance, corporate governance framework, government business enterprises, government linked companies, organizing models, ownership models, state-owned companies, state-owned enterprises

Procedia PDF Downloads 201
5052 Error Amount in Viscoelasticity Analysis Depending on Time Step Size and Method used in ANSYS

Authors: A. Fettahoglu

Abstract:

Theory of viscoelasticity is used by many researchers to represent behavior of many materials such as pavements on roads or bridges. Several researches used analytical methods and rheology to predict the material behaviors of simple models. Today, more complex engineering structures are analyzed using Finite Element Method, in which material behavior is embedded by means of three dimensional viscoelastic material laws. As a result, structures of unordinary geometry and domain like pavements of bridges can be analyzed by means of Finite Element Method and three dimensional viscoelastic equations. In the scope of this study, rheological models embedded in ANSYS, namely, generalized Maxwell elements and Prony series, which are two methods used by ANSYS to represent viscoelastic material behavior, are presented explicitly. Subsequently, a practical problem, which has an analytical solution given in literature, is used to verify the applicability of viscoelasticity tool embedded in ANSYS. Finally, amount of error in the results of ANSYS is compared with the analytical results to indicate the influence of used method and time step size.

Keywords: generalized Maxwell model, finite element method, prony series, time step size, viscoelasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
5051 Virtual Modelling of Turbulent Fibre Flow in a Low Consistency Refiner for a Sustainable and Energy Efficient Process

Authors: Simon Ingelsten, Anton Lundberg, Vijay Shankar, Lars-Olof Landström, Örjan Johansson

Abstract:

The flow in a low consistency disc refiner is simulated with the aim of identifying flow structures possibly being of importance for a future study to optimise the energy efficiency in refining processes. A simplified flow geometry is used, where a single groove of a refiner disc is modelled. Two different fibre models are used to simulate turbulent fibre suspension flow in the groove. The first model is a Bingham viscoplastic fluid model where the fibre suspension is treated as a non-Newtonian fluid with a yield stress. The second model is a new model proposed in a recent study where the suspended fibres effect on flow is accounted for through a modelled orientation distribution function (ODF). Both models yielded similar results with small differences. Certain flow characteristics that were expected and that was found in the literature were identified. Some of these flow characteristics may be of importance in a future process to optimise the refiner geometry to increase the energy efficiency. Further study and a more detailed flow model is; however, needed in order for the simulations to yield results valid for quantitative use in such an optimisation study. An outline of the next steps in such a study is proposed.

Keywords: disc refiner, fibre flow, sustainability, turbulence modelling

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5050 Shedding Light on the Black Box: Explaining Deep Neural Network Prediction of Clinical Outcome

Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

Abstract:

Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

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5049 How Unicode Glyphs Revolutionized the Way We Communicate

Authors: Levi Corallo

Abstract:

Typed language made by humans on computers and cell phones has made a significant distinction from previous modes of written language exchanges. While acronyms remain one of the most predominant markings of typed language, another and perhaps more recent revolution in the way humans communicate has been with the use of symbols or glyphs, primarily Emojis—globally introduced on the iPhone keyboard by Apple in 2008. This paper seeks to analyze the use of symbols in typed communication from both a linguistic and machine learning perspective. The Unicode system will be explored and methods of encoding will be juxtaposed with the current machine and human perception. Topics in how typed symbol usage exists in conversation will be explored as well as topics across current research methods dealing with Emojis like sentiment analysis, predictive text models, and so on. This study proposes that sequential analysis is a significant feature for analyzing unicode characters in a corpus with machine learning. Current models that are trying to learn or translate the meaning of Emojis should be starting to learn using bi- and tri-grams of Emoji, as well as observing the relationship between combinations of different Emoji in tandem. The sociolinguistics of an entire new vernacular of language referred to here as ‘typed language’ will also be delineated across my analysis with unicode glyphs from both a semantic and technical perspective.

Keywords: unicode, text symbols, emojis, glyphs, communication

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5048 Qsar Studies of Certain Novel Heterocycles Derived From bis-1, 2, 4 Triazoles as Anti-Tumor Agents

Authors: Madhusudan Purohit, Stephen Philip, Bharathkumar Inturi

Abstract:

In this paper we report the quantitative structure activity relationship of novel bis-triazole derivatives for predicting the activity profile. The full model encompassed a dataset of 46 Bis- triazoles. Tripos Sybyl X 2.0 program was used to conduct CoMSIA QSAR modeling. The Partial Least-Squares (PLS) analysis method was used to conduct statistical analysis and to derive a QSAR model based on the field values of CoMSIA descriptor. The compounds were divided into test and training set. The compounds were evaluated by various CoMSIA parameters to predict the best QSAR model. An optimum numbers of components were first determined separately by cross-validation regression for CoMSIA model, which were then applied in the final analysis. A series of parameters were used for the study and the best fit model was obtained using donor, partition coefficient and steric parameters. The CoMSIA models demonstrated good statistical results with regression coefficient (r2) and the cross-validated coefficient (q2) of 0.575 and 0.830 respectively. The standard error for the predicted model was 0.16322. In the CoMSIA model, the steric descriptors make a marginally larger contribution than the electrostatic descriptors. The finding that the steric descriptor is the largest contributor for the CoMSIA QSAR models is consistent with the observation that more than half of the binding site area is occupied by steric regions.

Keywords: 3D QSAR, CoMSIA, triazoles, novel heterocycles

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5047 Excitation Modeling for Hidden Markov Model-Based Speech Synthesis Based on Wavelet Analysis

Authors: M. Kiran Reddy, K. Sreenivasa Rao

Abstract:

The conventional Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based speech synthesis system (HTS) uses only a pulse excitation model, which significantly differs from natural excitation signal. Hence, buzziness can be perceived in the speech generated using HTS. This paper proposes an efficient excitation modeling method that can significantly reduce the buzziness, and improve the quality of HMM-based speech synthesis. The proposed approach models the pitch-synchronous residual frames extracted from the residual excitation signal. Each pitch synchronous residual frame is parameterized using 30 wavelet coefficients. These 30 wavelet coefficients are found to accurately capture the perceptually important information present in the residual waveform. In synthesis phase, the residual frames are reconstructed from the generated wavelet coefficients and are pitch-synchronously overlap-added to generate the excitation signal. The proposed excitation modeling method is integrated into HMM-based speech synthesis system. Evaluation results indicate that the speech synthesized by the proposed excitation model is significantly better than the speech generated using state-of-the-art excitation modeling methods.

Keywords: excitation modeling, hidden Markov models, pitch-synchronous frames, speech synthesis, wavelet coefficients

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5046 Naked Machismo: Uncovered Masculinity in an Israeli Home Design Campaign

Authors: Gilad Padva, Sigal Barak Brandes

Abstract:

This research centers on an unexpected Israeli advertising campaign for Elemento, a local furniture company, which eroticizes male nudity. The discussed campaign includes a series of printed ads that depict naked male models in effeminate positions. This campaign included a series of ads published in Haaretz, a small-scaled yet highly prestigious daily newspaper which is typically read by urban middle-upper-class left-winged Israelis. Apparently, this campaign embodies an alternative masculinity that challenges the prevalent machismo in Israeli society and advertising. Although some of the ads focus on young men in effeminate positions, they never expose their genitals and anuses, and their bodies are never permeable. The 2010s Elemento male models are seemingly contrasted to conventional representation of manhood in contemporary mainstream advertising. They display a somewhat inactive, passive and self-indulgent masculinity which involves 'conspicuous leisure'. In the process of commodity fetishism, the advertised furniture are emptied of the original meaning of their production, and then filled with new meanings in ways that both mystify the product and turn it into a fetish object. Yet, our research critically reconsiders this sensational campaign as sophisticated patriarchal parody that does not subvert but rather reconfirms and even fetishizes patriarchal premises; it parodizes effeminacy rather than the prevalent (Israeli) machismo. Following Pierre Bourdieu's politics of cultural taste, our research reconsiders and criticizes the male models' domesticated masculinity in a fantasized and cosmopolitan hedonistic habitus. Notwithstanding, we suggest that the Elemento campaign, despite its conformity, does question some Israeli and global axioms about gender roles, corporeal ideologies, idealized bodies, and domesticated phalluses and anuses. Although the naked truth is uncovered by this campaign, it does erect a vibrant discussion of contemporary masculinities and their exploitation in current mass consumption.

Keywords: male body, campaign, advertising, gender studies, men's studies, Israeli culture, masculinity, parody, effeminacy

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5045 Logical-Probabilistic Modeling of the Reliability of Complex Systems

Authors: Sergo Tsiramua, Sulkhan Sulkhanishvili, Elisabed Asabashvili, Lazare Kvirtia

Abstract:

The paper presents logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms for reliability assessment of complex systems, based on which a web application for structural analysis and reliability assessment of systems was created. The reliability assessment process included the following stages, which were reflected in the application: 1) Construction of a graphical scheme of the structural reliability of the system; 2) Transformation of the graphic scheme into a logical representation and modeling of the shortest ways of successful functioning of the system; 3) Description of system operability condition with logical function in the form of disjunctive normal form (DNF); 4) Transformation of DNF into orthogonal disjunction normal form (ODNF) using the orthogonalization algorithm; 5) Replacing logical elements with probabilistic elements in ODNF, obtaining a reliability estimation polynomial and quantifying reliability; 6) Calculation of weights of elements. Using the logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms discussed in the paper, a special software was created, by means of which a quantitative assessment of the reliability of systems of a complex structure is produced. As a result, structural analysis of systems, research and designing of optimal structure systems are carried out.

Keywords: Complex systems, logical-probabilistic methods, orthogonalization algorithm, reliability, weight of element

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5044 Unveiling Game Designers’ Designing Practices: Five-Essential-Steps Model

Authors: Mifrah Ahmad

Abstract:

Game designing processes vary with the intentions of the game. Digital games have versatile starting and finishing processes and these have been reported throughout the literature over decades. However, the need to understand how game designers’ practice in designing games is approached in the industry and how do they approach designing games is yet to be informed and whether they consider existing models or frameworks in their practice to assist their designing process of games. Therefore, this paper discusses 17 game designers’ participants' perspectives on how they approach designing games and how their experience of designing various games influences their practice. This research is conducted in an Australian context, through a phenomenology approach, where semi-structured interviews were designed and grounded by theory of experience by John Dewey. The audio data collected was analyzed using NVivo and interpreted using the interpretivism paradigm to contextualize the essence of game designers’ experiences in their practice and unfold their designing, developing, and iterative methodologies. As a result, a generic game-designing model is proposed that illuminates a sequence of steps that enables game designers’ initiatives toward a successful game design process. A ‘Five-Essential-Steps’ model (5ESM) for designing digital games may potentially assist early career game designers, gaming researchers as well as academics pursuing the designing process of games, educational games, or serious games.

Keywords: game designers practice, experiential design, designing models, game design approaches, designing process, software design, top-down model

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5043 Development of an Information System Based on the Establishment and Evaluation of Performance Rating by Application Part/Type of Remodeling Element Technologies

Authors: Sungwon Jung

Abstract:

The percentage of 20 years or older apartment houses in South Korea is approximately 20% (1.55 million houses), and the explosive increase of aged houses is expected around the first planned new towns. Accordingly, we should prepare for social issues such as difficulty of housing lease and degradation of housing performance. The improvement of performance of aged houses is essential for achieving the national energy and carbon reduction goals, and we should develop techniques to respond to the changing construction environment. Furthermore, we should develop a performance evaluation system that is appropriate for the demands of residents such as the improvement of remodeling floor plan by performance improvement in line with the residence type of the housing vulnerable groups such as low-income group and elderly people living alone. For this purpose, remodeling techniques and business models optimized for the target complexes must be spread through the development of various business models. In addition, it is necessary to improve the remodeling business by improving the laws and systems related to the improvement of the residential performance and to prepare techniques to respond to the increasing business demands. In other words, performance improvement and evaluation and knowledge systems need to be researched as new issues related to remodeling that has not been addressed in the existing research.

Keywords: remodelling, performance evaluation, web-based system, big data

Procedia PDF Downloads 210