Search results for: structural equation modeling semiparametric

Authors: Elhadi Nasr, Ibrahim Ramadan

Abstract:

Biostratigraphical analyses of well sections from the Maragh Low in the Eastern Sirt Basin has allowed high resolution correlations to be undertaken. Full integration of this data with available palaeoenvironmental, lithological, gravity, seismic, aeromagnetic, igneous, radiometric and wireline log information and a geochemical analysis of source rock quality and distribution has led to a more detailed understanding of the geological and the structural history of this area. Pre Sirt Unconformity two superimposed rifting cycles have been identified. The oldest is represented by the Amal Group of sediments and is of Late Carboniferous, Kasimovian / Gzelian to Middle Triassic, Anisian age. Unconformably overlying is a younger rift cycle which is represented the Sarir Group of sediments and is of Early Cretaceous, late Neocomian to Aptian in age. Overlying the Sirt Unconformity is the marine Late Cretaceous section. An assessment of pyrolysis results and a palynofacies analysis has allowed hydrocarbon source facies and quality to be determined. There are a number of hydrocarbon source rock horizons in the Maragh Low, these are sometimes vertically stacked and they are of fair to excellent quality. The oldest identified source rock is the Triassic Shale, this unit is unconformably overlain by sandstones belonging to the Sarir Group and conformably overlies a Triassic Siltstone unit. Palynological dating of the Triassic Shale unit indicates a Middle Triassic, Anisian age. The Triassic Shale is interpreted to have been deposited in a lacustrine palaeoenvironment. This particularly is evidenced by the dark, fine grained, organic rich nature of the sediment and is supported by palynofacies analysis and by the recovery of fish fossils. Geochemical analysis of the Triassic Shale indicates total organic carbon varying between 1.37 and 3.53. S2 pyrolysate yields vary between 2.15 mg/g and 6.61 mg/g and hydrogen indices vary between 156.91 and 278.91. The source quality of the Triassic Shale varies from being of fair to very good / rich. Linked to thermal maturity it is now a very good source for light oil and gas. It was once a very good to rich oil source. The Early Barremian Shale was also deposited in a lacustrine palaeoenvironment. Recovered palynomorphs indicate an Early Cretaceous, late Neocomian to early Barremian age. The Early Barremian Shale is conformably underlain and overlain by sandstone units belonging to the Sarir Group of sediments which are also of Early Cretaceous age. Geochemical analysis of the Early Barremian Shale indicates that it is a good oil source and was originally very good. Total organic carbon varies between 3.59% and 7%. S2 varies between 6.30 mg/g and 10.39 mg/g and the hydrogen indices vary between 148.4 and 175.5. A Late Barremian Shale unit of this age has also been identified in the central Maragh Low. Geochemical analyses indicate that total organic carbon varies between 1.05 and 2.38%, S2 pyrolysate between 1.6 and 5.34 mg/g and the hydrogen index between 152.4 and 224.4. It is a good oil source rock which is now mature. In addition to the non marine hydrocarbon source rocks pre Sirt Unconformity, three formations in the overlying Late Cretaceous section also provide hydrocarbon quality source rocks. Interbedded shales within the Rachmat Formation of Late Cretaceous, early Campanian age have total organic carbon ranging between, 0.7 and 1.47%, S2 pyrolysate varying between 1.37 and 4.00 mg/g and hydrogen indices varying between 195.7 and 272.1. The indication is that this unit would provide a fair gas source to a good oil source. Geochemical analyses of the overlying Tagrifet Limestone indicate that total organic carbon varies between 0.26% and 1.01%. S2 pyrolysate varies between 1.21 and 2.16 mg/g and hydrogen indices vary between 195.7 and 465.4. For the overlying Sirt Shale Formation of Late Cretaceous, late Campanian age, total organic carbon varies between 1.04% and 1.51%, S2 pyrolysate varies between 4.65 mg/g and 6.99 mg/g and the hydrogen indices vary between 151 and 462.9. The study has proven that both the Sirt Shale Formation and the Tagrifet Limestone are good to very good and rich sources for oil in the Maragh Low. High resolution biostratigraphical interpretations have been integrated and calibrated with thermal maturity determinations (Vitrinite Reflectance (%Ro), Spore Colour Index (SCI) and Tmax (ºC) and the determined present day geothermal gradient of 25ºC / Km for the Maragh Low. Interpretation of generated basin modelling profiles allows a detailed prediction of timing of maturation development of these source horizons and leads to a determination of amounts of missing section at major unconformities. From the results the top of the oil window (0.72% Ro) is picked as high as 10,700’ and the base of the oil window (1.35% Ro) assuming a linear trend and by projection is picked as low as 18,000’ in the Maragh Low. For the Triassic Shale the early phase of oil generation was in the Late Palaeocene / Early to Middle Eocene and the main phase of oil generation was in the Middle to Late Eocene. The Early Barremian Shale reached the main phase of oil generation in the Early Oligocene with late generation being reached in the Middle Miocene. For the Rakb Group section (Rachmat Formation, Tagrifet Limestone and Sirt Shale Formation) the early phase of oil generation started in the Late Eocene with the main phase of generation being between the Early Oligocene and the Early Miocene. From studying maturity profiles and from regional considerations it can be predicted that up to 500’ of sediment may have been deposited and eroded by the Sirt Unconformity in the central Maragh Low while up to 2000’ of sediment may have been deposited and then eroded to the south of the trough.

Keywords: Geochemical analysis of the source rocks from wells in Eastern Sirt Basin.

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Authors: Stephan Treuke

Abstract:

The paper analyses the neighbourhood effects on the economic mobility of the inhabitants of three segregated communities of Salvador (Brazil), in other words, the socio-economic advantages and disadvantages affecting the lives of poor people due to their embeddedness in specific socio-residential contexts. Recent studies performed in Brazilian metropolis have concentrated on the structural dimensions of negative externalities in order to explain neighbourhood-level variations in a field of different phenomena (delinquency, violence, access to the labour market and education) in spatial isolated and socially homogeneous slum areas (favelas). However, major disagreement remains whether the contiguity between residents of poor neighbourhoods and higher-class condominio-dwellers provides structures of opportunities or whether it fosters socio-spatial stigmatization. Based on a set of interviews, investigating the variability of interpersonal networks and their activation in the struggle for economic inclusion, the study confirms that the proximity of Nordeste de Amaralina to middle-/upper-class communities affects positively the access to labour opportunities. Nevertheless, residential stigmatization, as well as structures of social segmentation, annihilate these potentials. The lack of exposition to individuals and groups extrapolating from the favela’s social, educational and cultural context restricts the structures of opportunities to local level. Therefore, residents´ interpersonal networks reveal a high degree of redundancy and localism, based on bonding ties connecting family and neighbourhood members. The resilience of segregational structures in Plataforma contributes to the naturalization of social distance patters. It’s embeddedness in a socially homogeneous residential area (Subúrbio Ferroviário), growing informally and beyond official urban politics, encourages the construction of isotopic patterns of sociability, sharing the same values, social preferences, perspectives and behaviour models. Whereas it’s spatial isolation correlates with the scarcity of economic opportunities, the social heterogeneity of Fazenda Grande II interviewees and the socialising effects of public institutions mitigate the negative repercussions of segregation. The networks’ composition admits a higher degree of heterophilia and a greater proportion of bridging ties accounting for the access to broader information actives and facilitating economic mobility. The variability observed within the three different scenarios urges to reflect about the responsability of urban politics when it comes to the prevention or consolidation of the social segregation process in Salvador. Instead of promoting the local development of the favela Plataforma, public housing programs priorize technocratic habitational solutions without providing the residents’ socio-economic integration. The impact of negative externalities related to the homogeneously poor neighbourhood is potencialized in peripheral areas, turning its’ inhabitants socially invisible, thus being isolated from other social groups. The example of Nordeste de Amaralina portrays the failing interest of urban politics to bridge the social distances structuring the brazilian society’s rigid stratification model, founded on mecanisms of segmentation (unequal access to labour market and education system, public transport, social security and law protection) and generating permanent conflicts between the two socioeconomically distant groups living in geographic contiguity. Finally, in the case of Fazenda Grande II, the public investments in both housing projects and complementary infrastructure (e.g. schools, hospitals, community center, police stations, recreation areas) contributes to the residents’ socio-economic inclusion.

Keywords: economic mobility, neighborhood effects, Salvador, segregation

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Authors: Kristina F. Wolff

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Background: In the Federal Republic of Germany, violence against women is deeply embedded in society. Germany is, as of March 2020, the most populous member state of the European Union with 83.2 million inhabitants and, although more than half of its inhabitants are women, gender equality was not certified in the Basic Law until 1957. Women have only been allowed to enter paid employment without their husband's consent since 1977 and have marital rape prosecuted only since 1997. While the lack of equality between men and women is named in the preamble of the Istanbul Convention as the cause of gender-specific, structural, traditional violence against women, Germany continues to sink on the latest Gender Equality Index. According to Police Crime Statistics (PCS), women are significantly more often victims of lethal violence, emanating from men than vice versa. The PCS, which, since 2015, also collects gender-specific data on violent crimes, is kept by the Federal Criminal Police Office, but without taking into account the relevant criteria for targeted prevention, such as the history of violence of the perpetrator/killer, weapon, motivation, etc.. Institutions such as EIGE or the World Health Organization have been asking Germany for years in vain for comparable data on violence against women in order to gain an overview or to develop cross-border synergies. The PCS are the only official data collection on violence against women. All players involved are depend on this data set, which is published only in November of the following year and is thus already completely outdated at the time of publication. In order to combat German femicides causally, purposefully and efficiently, evidence-based data was urgently needed. Methodology: Beginning in January 2019, a database was set up that now tracks more than 600 German femicides, broken down by more than 100 crime-related individual criteria, which in turn go far beyond the official PCS. These data are evaluated on the one hand by daily media research, and on the other hand by case-specific inquiries at the respective public prosecutor's offices and courts nationwide. This quantitative long-term study covers domestic violence as well as a variety of different types of gender-specific, lethal violence, including, for example, femicides committed by German citizens abroad. Additionallyalcohol/ narcotic and/or drug abuse, infanticides and the gender aspect in the judiciary are also considered. Results: Since November 2020, evidence-based data from a scientific survey have been available for the first time in Germany, supplementing the rudimentary picture of reality provided by PCS with a number of relevant parameters. The most important goal of the study is to identify "red flags" that enable general preventive awareness, that serve increasingly precise hazard assessment in acute hazard situations, and from which concrete instructions for action can be identified. Already at a very early stage of the study it could be proven that in more than half of all femicides with a sexual perpetrator/victim constellation there was an age difference of five years or more. Summary: Without reliable data and an understanding of the nature and extent, cause and effect, it is impossible to sustainably curb violence against girls and women, which increasingly often culminates in femicide. In Germany, valid data from a scientific survey has been available for the first time since November 2020, supplementing the rudimentary reality picture of the official and, to date, sole crime statistics with several relevant parameters. The basic research provides insights into geo-concentration, monthly peaks and the modus operandi of male violent excesses. A significant increase of child homicides in the course of femicides and/or child homicides as an instrument of violence against the mother could be proven as well as a danger of affected persons due to an age difference of five years and more. In view of the steadily increasing wave of violence against women, these study results are an eminent contribution to the preventive containment of German femicides.

Keywords: femicide, violence against women, gender specific data, rule Of law, Istanbul convention, gender equality, gender based violence

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Stephen Verderber

Abstract:

The World Health Organization (WHO) calls for research and development on ecologically sustainable, resilient structures capable of effectively responding to disaster events globally, in response to climate change, politically based diasporas, earthquakes, and other adverse events upending the rhythms of everyday life globally. By 2050, nearly 80% of the world’s population will reside in coastal zones, and this, coupled with the increasingly dire impacts of climate change, constitute a recipe for further chaos and disruption, and in light of these events, architects have yet to rise up to meet the challenge. In the arena of healthcare, rapidly deployable clinics and field hospitals can provide immediate assistance in medically underserved disaster strike zones. Transportable facilities offer multiple advantages over conventional, fixed-site hospitals, as lightweight, comparatively unencumbered alternatives. These attributes have been proven repeatedly in 20th century vehicular and tent-based structures deployed in frontline combat theaters and in prior natural disasters. Prefab transportable clinics and trauma centers recently responded adroitly to medical emergencies in the aftermath of the Haitian (2010) and Ecuadorian (2016) earthquakes, and in North American post-hurricane relief efforts (2017) while architects continue to be castigated by their engineer colleagues as chronically poor first responders. Architecturally based portable structures for healthcare currently include Redeployable Health Centers (RHCs), Redeployable Trauma Centers (RTCs), and Permanent Modular Installations (PMIs). Five tectonic variants within this typology have recently been operationalized in the field: 1. Vehicular-based Nomadics: Prefab modules installed on a truck chassis with interior compartments dropped in prior to final assembly. Alternately, a two-component apparatus is preferred, with a truck cab pulling a modular medical unit, with independent transiting component; 2. Tent and Pneumatic Systems: Tent/yurt precursors and inflatable systems lightweight and responsive to topographically challenging terrain and diverse climates; 3. Containerized Systems: The standard modular intermodal-shipping container affords structural strength, resiliency in difficult transiting conditions, and can be densely close-packed and these can be custom-built or hold flat-pack systems; 4. Flat-Packs and Pop-Up Systems: These kit-of-part assemblies are shipped in standardized or specially-designed ISO containers; and 5. Hybrid Systems: These consist of composite facilities representing a synthesis of mobile vehicular components and/or tent or shipping containers, fused with conventional or pneumatically activated tent systems. Hybrids are advantageous in many installation contexts from an aesthetic, fabrication, and transiting perspective. Advantages/disadvantages of various modular systems are comparatively examined, followed by presentation of a compendium of 80 evidence (research)-based planning and design considerations addressing site/context, transiting and commissioning, triage, decontamination/intake, diagnostic and treatment, facility tectonics, and administration/total environment. The benefits of offsite pre-manufactured fabrication are examined, as is anticipated growth in international demand for transportable healthcare facilities to meet the challenges posed by accelerating global climate change and global conflicts. This investigation into rapid response facilities for pre and post-disaster zones is drawn from a recent book by the author, the first on architecture on this topic (Innovations in Transportable Healthcare Architecture).

Keywords: disaster mitigation, rapid response healthcare architecture, offsite prefabrication

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