Search results for: Shadi Fathi

Authors: Bahram Fathi, Karim Alizadeh, Azam Mohammadbagheri

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of oil price shocks in explaining business cycles in Iran using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. The model with two shocks produces different values for volatility, but these values have the same ranking as that of the actual data for most variables. In addition, the actual data are close to the ratio of standard deviations to the output obtained from the model with two shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than the oil shocks. The model with only a productivity shock produces the most similar figures in term of volatility magnitude to that of the actual data. Next, we use the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to evaluate the capability of the model. The IRF shows no effect of an oil shock on the capital stocks and on labor hours, which is a feature of the model. When the log-linearized system of equations is solved numerically, investment and labor hours were not found to be functions of the oil shock. This research recommends using different techniques to compare the model’s robustness. One method by which to do this is to have all decision variables as a function of the oil shock by inducing the stationary to the model differently. Another method is to impose a bond adjustment cost. This study intends to fill that gap. To achieve this objective, we derive a DSGE model that allows for the world oil price and productivity shocks. Second, we calibrate the model to the Iran economy. Next, we compare the moments from the theoretical model with both single and multiple shocks with that obtained from the actual data to see the extent to which business cycles in Iran can be explained by total oil revenue shock. Then, we use an impulse response function to evaluate the role of world oil price shocks. Finally, I present implications of the findings and interpretations in accordance with economic theory.

Keywords: oil price, shocks, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Iran

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Authors: Fathi Kallel, Abdulelah Alabd Uljabbar, Abdulrahman Aldukhail, Abdulaziz Alomran

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The brain is an important organ in our body since it is responsible about the majority actions such as vision, memory, etc. However, different diseases such as Alzheimer and tumors could affect the brain and conduct to a partial or full disorder. Regular diagnosis are necessary as a preventive measure and could help doctors to early detect a possible trouble and therefore taking the appropriate treatment, especially in the case of brain tumors. Different imaging modalities are proposed for diagnosis of brain tumor. The powerful and most used modality is the Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). MRI images are analyzed by doctor in order to locate eventual tumor in the brain and describe the appropriate and needed treatment. Diverse image processing methods are also proposed for helping doctors in identifying and analyzing the tumor. In fact, a large Computer Aided Diagnostic (CAD) tools including developed image processing algorithms are proposed and exploited by doctors as a second opinion to analyze and identify the brain tumors. In this paper, we proposed a new advanced CAD for brain tumor identification, classification and feature extraction. Our proposed CAD includes three main parts. Firstly, we load the brain MRI. Secondly, a robust technique for brain tumor extraction is proposed. This technique is based on both Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). DWT is characterized by its multiresolution analytic property, that’s why it was applied on MRI images with different decomposition levels for feature extraction. Nevertheless, this technique suffers from a main drawback since it necessitates a huge storage and is computationally expensive. To decrease the dimensions of the feature vector and the computing time, PCA technique is considered. In the last stage, according to different extracted features, the brain tumor is classified into either benign or malignant tumor using Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm. A CAD tool for brain tumor detection and classification, including all above-mentioned stages, is designed and developed using MATLAB guide user interface.

Keywords: MRI, brain tumor, CAD, feature extraction, DWT, PCA, classification, SVM

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Spencer Rutherford, Shadi Saleh

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War and conflict negatively impact all facets of a health system; services cease to function, resources become depleted, and any semblance of governance is lost. Following cessation of conflict, the rebuilding process includes a wide array of international and local actors. During this period, stakeholders must contend with various trade-offs, including balancing sustainable outcomes with immediate health needs, introducing health reform measures while also increasing local capacity, and reconciling external assistance with local legitimacy. Compounding these factors are additional challenges, including coordination amongst stakeholders, the re-occurrence of conflict, and ulterior motives from donors and governments, to name a few. Therefore, the present paper evaluated health system development in three post-conflict countries over a 12-year timeline. Specifically, health policies, health inputs (such infrastructure and human resources), and measures of governance, from the post-conflict periods of Afghanistan, Cambodia, and Mozambique, were assessed against health outputs and other measures. All post-conflict countries experienced similar challenges when rebuilding the health sector, including; division and competition between donors, NGOs, and local institutions; urban and rural health inequalities; and the re-occurrence of conflict. However, countries also employed unique and effective mechanisms for reconstructing their health systems, including; government engagement of the NGO and private sector; integration of competing factions into the same workforce; and collaborative planning for health policy. Based on these findings, best-practice development strategies were determined and compiled into a 12-year framework. Briefly, during the initial stage of the post-conflict period, primary stakeholders should work quickly to draft a national health strategy in collaboration with the government, and focus on managing and coordinating NGOs through performance-based partnership agreements. With this scaffolding in place, the development community can then prioritize the reconstruction of primary health care centers, increasing and retaining health workers, and horizontal integration of immunization services. The final stages should then concentrate on transferring ownership of the health system national institutions, implementing sustainable financing mechanisms, and phasing-out NGO services. Overall, these findings contribute post-conflict health system development by evaluating the process holistically and along a timeline and can be of further use by healthcare managers, policy-makers, and other health professionals.

Keywords: Afghanistan, Cambodia, health system development, health system reconstruction, Mozambique, post-conflict, state-building

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Authors: Afifa Hafidh, Fathi Touati, Ahmed Hichem Hamzaoui, Sayda Somrani

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The objective of the present study has been to synthesize and to characterize silica hybrid materials using sol-gel technic and to investigate their properties. Silica materials were successfully fabricated using various bi-functional 1,3,4-thiadiazoles and tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) as co-precursors via a facile one-pot sol-gel pathway. TEOS was introduced at room temperature with 1,3,4-thiadiazole 2,5-difunctiunal adducts, in ethanol as solvent and using HCl acid as catalyst. The sol-gel process lead to the formation of monolithic, coloured and transparent gels. TEOS was used as a principal network forming agent. The incorporation of 1,3,4-thiadiazole molecules was realized by attachment of these later onto a silica matrix. This allowed covalent linkage between organic and inorganic phases and lead to the formation of Si-N and Si-S bonds. The prepared hybrid materials were characterized by Fourier transform infrared, NMR ²⁹Si and ¹³C, scanning electron microscopy and nitrogen absorption-desorption measurements. The optic and magnetic properties of hybrids are studied respectively by ultra violet-visible spectroscopy and electron paramagnetic resonance. It was shown in this work, that heterocyclic moieties were successfully attached in the hybrid skeleton. The formation of the Si-network composed of cyclic units (Q3 structures) connected by oxygen bridges (Q4 structures) was proved by ²⁹Si NMR spectroscopy. The Brunauer-Elmet-Teller nitrogen adsorption-desorption method shows that all the prepared xerogels have isotherms type IV and are mesoporous solids. The specific surface area and pore volume of these materials are important. The obtained results show that all materials are paramagnetic semiconductors. The data obtained by Nuclear magnetic resonance ²⁹Si and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, show that Si-OH and Si-NH groups existing in silica hybrids can participate in adsorption interactions. The obtained materials containing reactive centers could exhibit adsorption properties of metal ions due to the presence of OH and NH functionality in the mesoporous frame work. Our design of a simple method to prepare hybrid materials may give interest of the development of mesoporous hybrid systems and their use within the domain of environment in the future.

Keywords: hybrid materials, sol-gel process, 1, 3, 4-thiadaizole, TEOS

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Authors: Leyla Sattarzadeh, Shahin Fathi Molk Kian, Maghsoud Peeri, Mohammadali Azarbaijani, Hasan Matin Homaee

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Inflammation by various mechanisms may cause atherosclerosis. Systemic circulating inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), pro-inflammatory cytokines such as Interleukin-6 (IL-6), vascular inflammatory markers as adhesion molecules like Intracellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and Vascular Cell Adhesion Molecule-1 (VCAM-1) are the predictors of cardiovascular diseases. Regarding the conflicting results about the effect of different patterns of resistance exercise training on these inflammatory markers, present study aimed to examine the effect of different patterns of eight week resistance exercise training on CRP, IL-6, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels in healthy untrained women. 56 healthy volunteered untrained female university students (aged: 21 ± 3 yr., Body Mass Index: 21.5 ± 3.5 kg/m²) were selected purposefully and divided into four groups. At the end of training protocol and after subject drop during the protocol, upper body exercise training (n=11), lower body (n=12) and whole body resistance exercise training group (n=11) completed the eight weeks of training period although the control group (n=7) did anything. Blood samples gathered pre and post-experimental period and CRP, IL-6, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels were evaluated using special laboratory kits, then the difference of pre and post values of each indices analyzed using one-way analysis of variance (α < 0.05). The results of one way ANOVA for difference of pre and post values of CRP, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 showed no significant changes due to the exercise training, but there were significant differences between groups about IL-6. Tukey post- hoc test indicated that there is significant difference between the differences of pre and post values of IL-6 between lower body exercise training group and control group, and eight weeks of lower body exercise training lead to significant changes in IL-6 values. There were no changes in anthropometric indices. The findings show that the different patterns of upper, lower and whole body exercise training by involving the different amounts of muscles altered the IL-6 values in lower body exercise training group probably because of engaging the bigger amount of muscles, but showed any significant changes about CRP, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 probably due to intensity and duration of exercise or the lower levels of these markers at baseline of healthy people.

Keywords: resistance training, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, intracellular adhesion molecule-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1

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Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

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The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

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Authors: Mareike Dornhoefer, Madjid Fathi

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Water supply and water quality are key problems of mankind at the moment and - due to increasing population - in the future. Management disciplines like water, environment and quality management therefore need to closely interact, to establish a high level of water quality and to guarantee water supply in all parts of the world. Groundwater remediation is one aspect in this process. From a knowledge management perspective it is only possible to solve complex ecological or environmental problems if different factors, expert knowledge of various stakeholders and formal regulations regarding water, waste or chemical management are interconnected in form of a knowledge base. In general knowledge management focuses the processes of gathering and representing existing and new knowledge in a way, which allows for inference or deduction of knowledge for e.g. a situation where a problem solution or decision support are required. A knowledge base is no sole data repository, but a key element in a knowledge based system, thus providing or allowing for inference mechanisms to deduct further knowledge from existing facts. In consequence this knowledge provides decision support. The given paper introduces an environmental knowledge system in water management. The proposed environmental knowledge system is part of a research concept called Green Knowledge Management. It applies semantic technologies or concepts such as ontology or linked open data to interconnect different data and information sources about environmental aspects, in this case, water quality, as well as background material enriching an established knowledge base. Examples for the aforementioned ecological or environmental factors threatening water quality are among others industrial pollution (e.g. leakage of chemicals), environmental changes (e.g. rise in temperature) or floods, where all kinds of waste are merged and transferred into natural water environments. Water quality is usually determined with the help of measuring different indicators (e.g. chemical or biological), which are gathered with the help of laboratory testing, continuous monitoring equipment or other measuring processes. During all of these processes data are gathered and stored in different databases. Meanwhile the knowledge base needs to be established through interconnecting data of these different data sources and enriching its semantics. Experts may add their knowledge or experiences of previous incidents or influencing factors. In consequence querying or inference mechanisms are applied for the deduction of coherence between indicators, predictive developments or environmental threats. Relevant processes or steps of action may be modeled in form of a rule based approach. Overall the environmental knowledge system supports the interconnection of information and adding semantics to create environmental knowledge about water environment, supply chain as well as quality. The proposed concept itself is a holistic approach, which links to associated disciplines like environmental and quality management. Quality indicators and quality management steps need to be considered e.g. for the process and inference layers of the environmental knowledge system, thus integrating the aforementioned management disciplines in one water management application.

Keywords: water quality, environmental knowledge system, green knowledge management, semantic technologies, quality management

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Authors: Masoud Fathi Kazerouni, Jens Schlemper, Klaus-Dieter Kuhnert

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Green planet is one of the Earth’s names which is known as a terrestrial planet and also can be named the fifth largest planet of the solar system as another scientific interpretation. Plants do not have a constant and steady distribution all around the world, and even plant species’ variations are not the same in one specific region. Presence of plants is not only limited to one field like botany; they exist in different fields such as literature and mythology and they hold useful and inestimable historical records. No one can imagine the world without oxygen which is produced mostly by plants. Their influences become more manifest since no other live species can exist on earth without plants as they form the basic food staples too. Regulation of water cycle and oxygen production are the other roles of plants. The roles affect environment and climate. Plants are the main components of agricultural activities. Many countries benefit from these activities. Therefore, plants have impacts on political and economic situations and future of countries. Due to importance of plants and their roles, study of plants is essential in various fields. Consideration of their different applications leads to focus on details of them too. Automatic recognition of plants is a novel field to contribute other researches and future of studies. Moreover, plants can survive their life in different places and regions by means of adaptations. Therefore, adaptations are their special factors to help them in hard life situations. Weather condition is one of the parameters which affect plants life and their existence in one area. Recognition of plants in different weather conditions is a new window of research in the field. Only natural images are usable to consider weather conditions as new factors. Thus, it will be a generalized and useful system. In order to have a general system, distance from the camera to plants is considered as another factor. The other considered factor is change of light intensity in environment as it changes during the day. Adding these factors leads to a huge challenge to invent an accurate and secure system. Development of an efficient plant recognition system is essential and effective. One important component of plant is leaf which can be used to implement automatic systems for plant recognition without any human interface and interaction. Due to the nature of used images, characteristic investigation of plants is done. Leaves of plants are the first characteristics to select as trusty parts. Four different plant species are specified for the goal to classify them with an accurate system. The current paper is devoted to principal directions of the proposed methods and implemented system, image dataset, and results. The procedure of algorithm and classification is explained in details. First steps, feature detection and description of visual information, are outperformed by using Scale invariant feature transform (SIFT), HARRIS-SIFT, and FAST-SIFT methods. The accuracy of the implemented methods is computed. In addition to comparison, robustness and efficiency of results in different conditions are investigated and explained.

Keywords: SIFT combination, feature extraction, feature detection, natural images, natural plant recognition, HARRIS-SIFT, FAST-SIFT

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